央视新闻消息，8月12日，商务部公告2025年第39号公布对原产于加拿大、日本和印度的进口卤化丁基 橡胶反倾销调查的初步裁定。 根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》（以下简称《反倾销条例》）的规定，2024年9月14日，商务部 （以下称调查机关）发布2024年第38号公告，决定对原产于加拿大、日本和印度的进口卤化丁基橡胶 （以下称被调查产品）进行反倾销立案调查。 调查机关对被调查产品是否存在倾销和倾销幅度、被调查产品是否对国内卤化丁基橡胶产业造成损害及 损害程度以及倾销与损害之间的因果关系进行了调查。根据调查结果和《反倾销条例》第二十四条的规 定，调查机关作出初步裁定（见附件）。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、终止对原产于印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查 经调查，调查期内自印度进口被调查产品数量占同期中国进口卤化丁基橡胶总量的比例低于3%。根据 《反倾销条例》第九条和第二十七条规定，调查机关认定该进口数量属可忽略不计，决定终止对原产于 印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查。 二、初步裁定 调查机关初步认定，原产于加拿大和日本的进口被调查产品存在倾销，国内卤化丁基橡胶产业受到实质 损害，而且倾销与实质损害之间存在因果关系。 ...

新京报讯 据商务部网站消息，根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》（以下简称《反倾销条例》）的规 定，2024年9月14日，商务部（以下称调查机关）发布2024年第38号公告，决定对原产于加拿大、日本 和印度的进口卤化丁基橡胶（以下称被调查产品）进行反倾销立案调查。 调查机关对被调查产品是否存在倾销和倾销幅度、被调查产品是否对国内卤化丁基橡胶产业造成损害及 损害程度以及倾销与损害之间的因果关系进行了调查。根据调查结果和《反倾销条例》第二十四条的规 定，调查机关作出初步裁定（见附件）。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、终止对原产于印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查 经调查，调查期内自印度进口被调查产品数量占同期中国进口卤化丁基橡胶总量的比例低于3%。根据 《反倾销条例》第九条和第二十七条规定，调查机关认定该进口数量属可忽略不计，决定终止对原产于 印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查。 二、初步裁定 调查机关初步认定，原产于加拿大和日本的进口被调查产品存在倾销，国内卤化丁基橡胶产业受到实质 损害，而且倾销与实质损害之间存在因果关系。 三、征收保证金 根据《反倾销条例》第二十八条和第二十九条的规定，调查机关决定采用保证金形式实施临时 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce initiated anti-dumping investigations on imported canola seeds from Canada on September 9, 2024, and on imported halogenated butyl rubber from Canada and other countries on September 14, 2024 [1] - Preliminary evidence indicated that the investigated imported products were being dumped, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry, with a causal relationship between dumping and the harm identified [1] - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced preliminary rulings, imposing temporary anti-dumping measures with a dumping margin of 75.8% for canola seeds from Canadian companies and a margin of 26.2%-40.5% for halogenated butyl rubber from Canadian companies [1]

每经AI快讯，8月12日，商务部发布公告称，调查机关初步认定，原产于加拿大和日本的进口被调查产 品存在倾销，国内卤化丁基橡胶产业受到实质损害，而且倾销与实质损害之间存在因果关系。根据《反 倾销条例》第二十八条和第二十九条的规定，调查机关决定采用保证金形式实施临时反倾销措施。自 2025年8月14日起，进口经营者在进口原产于加拿大和日本的卤化丁基橡胶时，应依据初裁决定所确定 的各公司的保证金比率向中华人民共和国海关提供相应的保证金。 ...

【发布单位】贸易救济局 【发布文号】商务部公告2025年第39号 【发文日期】2025年08月12日 根据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》（以下简称《反倾销条例》）的规定，2024年9月14日，商务部 （以下称调查机关）发布2024年第38号公告，决定对原产于加拿大、日本和印度的进口卤化丁基橡胶 （以下称被调查产品）进行反倾销立案调查。 调查机关对被调查产品是否存在倾销和倾销幅度、被调查产品是否对国内卤化丁基橡胶产业造成损害及 损害程度以及倾销与损害之间的因果关系进行了调查。根据调查结果和《反倾销条例》第二十四条的规 定，调查机关作出初步裁定（见附件）。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、终止对原产于印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查 经调查，调查期内自印度进口被调查产品数量占同期中国进口卤化丁基橡胶总量的比例低于3%。根据 《反倾销条例》第九条和第二十七条规定，调查机关认定该进口数量属可忽略不计，决定终止对原产于 印度的进口被调查产品的反倾销调查。 二、初步裁定 调查范围：原产于加拿大、日本的进口卤化丁基橡胶。 调查机关初步认定，原产于加拿大和日本的进口被调查产品存在倾销，国内卤化丁基橡胶产业受到实质 损害，而且倾销与实 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The global natural rubber产区 is in the tapping season. In the Yunnan产区, continuous rainfall has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high - fluctuating. In the Hainan产区, increased precipitation has restricted tapping in some areas, leading to a month - on - month decrease in raw material output. Supported by the rise in futures and spot markets, some processors are more eager to purchase raw materials. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao continues to decline. In terms of demand, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly last week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,550 - 16,150 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,755 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,620 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 985 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 124,913 lots, up 10,616 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 55,758 lots, up 33,715 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,630 lots, down 4,018 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,519 lots, down 1,800 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 175,440 tons, down 840 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,840 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, up 605 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 1,055 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,170 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,670 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50 yuan/ton, down 173 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 61.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.45 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.45 days, up 0.81 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.05%, down 0.07 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.22%, down 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 10 - 16, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is in a low - to - medium state, which has an increased impact on tapping operations. The red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which also has an increased impact on tapping operations [2]. 3.7 Other Information - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory is 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao's natural rubber sample decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Overview - Report Name: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Date: August 7, 2025 - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemical Team - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [7][17] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Not explicitly stated in the given content. The report mainly presents a comprehensive set of data on the synthetic rubber market, including price, volume, profit, and spread information for BR (butadiene rubber) and BD (butadiene), which can be used by investors to analyze market trends and make investment decisions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) a. Futures Market - **主力合约收盘价**: On August 6, it was 11,505, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -270 compared to July 7 [3][13]. - **主力合约持仓量**: On August 6, it was 28,087, with a daily change of -2,345 and a weekly change of -11,603 [3][13]. - **主力合约成交量**: On August 6, it was 51,579, with a daily change of -2,366 and a weekly change of -48,813 [3][13]. - **仓单数量**: On August 6, it was 10,310 (13.62), with a daily change of -230 (-1) and a weekly change of 120 (-6) [3][13]. b. Basis and Spread - **顺丁基差**: On August 6, it was 82 (the value on July 7 was 450), with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 70 [3][13]. - **顺丁基差(两油)**: On August 6, it was -5 (the value on July 7 was 400), with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -330 [3][13]. - **丁苯基差**: On August 6, it was 495 (the value on July 7 was 700), with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 70 [3][13]. - **8 - 9月差**: On August 6, it was 85 (the value on July 7 was 70), with a daily change of 105 [3][13]. - **9 - 10月差**: On August 6, it was 5 (the value on July 7 was 40), with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of -20 [3][13]. c. Spot Market - **山东市场价**: On August 6, it was 11,600, with no daily change and a weekly change of -200 [3][13]. - **传化市场价**: On August 6, it was 11,500, with no daily change and a weekly change of -300 [3][13]. - **齐鲁出厂价**: On August 6, it was 11,500, with no daily change and a weekly change of -600 [3][13]. - **CFR东北亚**: On August 6, it was 1,450, with no daily change and a weekly change of -25 [3][13]. - **CFR东南亚**: On August 6, it was 1,750, with no daily change and no weekly change [3][13]. d. Processing and Import - Export - **现货加工利润**: On August 6, it was -163 (the value on July 7 was 223), with a daily change of -102 and a weekly change of -328 [3][13]. - **盘面加工利润**: On August 6, it was -258 (the value on July 7 was -227), with a daily change of -112 and a weekly change of -398 [3][13]. - **进口利润**: On August 6, it was -82,267 (the value on July 7 was -81,486), with no daily change and a weekly change of 4,809 [3][13]. - **出口利润**: On August 6, it was -328 (the value on July 7 was -210), with no daily change and a weekly change of -20 [3][13]. BD (Butadiene) a. Price - **山东市场价**: On August 6, it was 9,375, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 125 [3][13]. - **江苏市场价**: On August 6, it was 9,350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [3][13]. - **扬子出厂价**: On August 6, it was 9,400, with a daily change of 200 and no weekly change [3][13]. - **CFR中国**: On August 6, it was 1,080, with no daily change and a weekly change of -10 [3][13]. b. Processing and Import - Export - **碳四抽提利润**: Data for August 6 was N/A (the value on July 7 was 1,765) [3][13]. - **丁烯氧化脱氢利润**: On August 6, it was 326 (the value on July 7 was -454), with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [3][13]. - **进口利润**: On August 6, it was 433 (the value on July 7 was 106), with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 144 [3][13]. - **出口利润**: On August 6, it was -1,100 (the value on July 7 was -746), with a daily change of -87 and a weekly change of 18 [3][13]. c. Downstream Profits - **顺丁生产利润**: On August 6, it was -258 (the value on July 7 was -227), with a daily change of -112 and a weekly change of -398 [3][13]. - **丁苯生产利润**: On August 6, it was 550 (the value on July 7 was 638), with a daily change of -175 and a weekly change of -375 [3][13]. - **ABS生产利润**: On August 6, it was 225 (the value on July 7 was 396), with a daily change of -54 and a weekly change of -7 [3][13]. - **SBS生产利润(791 - H)**: On August 6, it was 960 (the value on July 7 was 805), with a daily change of -170 and a weekly change of 30 [3][13]. d. Spreads - **RU - BR**: On August 6, it was -12,592 (the value on July 7 was -16,306), with a daily change of 3,295 and a weekly change of 12,153 [3][13]. - **NR - BR**: On August 6, it was -15,767 (the value on July 7 was -18,236), with a daily change of 2,365 and a weekly change of 11,348 [3][13]. - **泰混 - 顺丁**: On August 6, it was 2,720 (the value on July 7 was 2,400), with no daily change and a weekly change of -30 [3][13]. - **3L - 丁苯**: On August 6, it was 2,650 (the value on July 7 was 2,750), with no daily change and a weekly change of -50 [3][13]. - **顺丁标品 - 非标价差**: On August 6, it was 250 (the value on July 7 was 400), with no daily change and no weekly change [3][13]. - **丁苯1502 - 1712**: On August 6, it was 1,150 (the value on July 7 was 1,100), with no daily change and a weekly change of 50 [3][13].

乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/7 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 7/7 | 7/30 | 8/4 | 8/5 | 8/6 | 日度变化 | 間度受化 | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11000 | 11775 | 11395 | 11515 | 11505 | -10 | -270 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 30276 | 39690 | 31806 | 30432 | 28087 | -2345 | -11603 | | | 居 | 主力合约成交量 | 133795 | 100392 | 55081 | 53945 | 51579 | -2366 | -48813 | | | | 仓単数量 | 8100 | 10190 | 10540 | 10540 | 10310 | -230 | 120 | | | | 虚实比 | 18.69 | 19.47 | 15.09 | 14.44 | 13.62 | ้า ...

Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250805: Natural Rubber to Fluctuate, Synthetic Rubber to Weaken [2] Market Data Summary Natural Rubber - Closing prices on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 14365, 14310, and 15585 respectively [1] - Volumes on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 252447, 329655, and -77208 respectively [1] - Open interests on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 190262, -1952, and 188310 respectively [1] - Registered warehouse receipts on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 177630, 182020, and 176640 respectively [1] Synthetic Rubber - Closing prices on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 11395, 11455, and 12415 respectively [1] - Volumes on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 160791, 55081, and 73266 respectively [1] - Open interests on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 33939, 31806, and 49311 respectively [1] - Registered warehouse receipts on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 10340, 9840, and 10540 respectively [1] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - In major natural rubber producing regions such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, there will be precipitation in the coming days. In China, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan will also see rainfall, while Hainan will have less [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from the previous week, and that of styrene-butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from the previous week [1] Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating rate of all-steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, down 3.94% from the previous week, and that of semi-steel tires in China was 74.63%, down 0.87% from the previous week [1] - In June, the retail sales of the national automobile market reached 2.904 million units, an increase of 217,700 units from the previous month. Passenger car sales were 2.336 million units, an increase of 184,300 units from the previous month, and truck sales were 316,000 units, an increase of 24,500 units from the previous month [1] Cost and Inventory Analysis Cost - As of August 4, 2025, the purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand, was 62 Thai baht per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 14,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 650 yuan per ton from the previous day [1] - OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, combined with the decline in the employment data of the refinery, the price of crude oil is expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw materials has decreased [1] Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons from the previous week, the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 19,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous week, and the bonded area inventory was 88,900 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, an increase of 12 tons from the previous week [1] Core View - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate due to increased precipitation affecting tapping and a decline in tire operating rates [1] - Synthetic rubber prices may weaken due to falling raw material costs and rising inventories [1] - Attention should be paid to the support levels of natural rubber around 1880-14000 and the resistance levels around 15000-15200, and the support levels of butadiene rubber around 10800-11000 and the resistance levels around 11700-11900 [1]

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - inch Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing corresponding operation suggestions based on their supply - demand, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton &棉纱 - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded today, with the near - month contract stronger and the January contract weaker. The 9 - 1 and 9 - 11 spreads also rebounded. In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profit was under pressure. New - year Xinjiang has a strong production increase expectation. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or maintain a positive spread strategy for 9 - 11 [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian production data in mid - July was neutral to bearish. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. The rainfall in Guangxi was good in July but may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of 25/26 sugar production. Overall, US sugar is trending down, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. Operationally, wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The inventory of cold - stored apples is low, and traders are eager to sell. The price of early - maturing apples dropped after a high opening. The market focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Operationally, wait and see [4] 20 - inch Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated strongly, NR weakly, and BR continued to fall. The supply of natural rubber is entering the high - yield period, and the demand for tires is weak. Natural rubber inventory decreased, while synthetic rubber inventory increased. Operationally, wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to fall today. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, supply is loose, and demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price rebounded. The supply of domestic coniferous logs is expected to remain low, and the demand is good. The inventory is low, and the spot price is expected to rebound. Operationally, maintain a long - biased strategy [8]