联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

Group 1: Investor Relations Activities - The company held an annual performance briefing on May 9, 2025, via the China Securities Network [4] - Participants included the company's board members and financial executives [4] Group 2: Key Performance Metrics - The company's net profit margin for 2023 was 2.02%, which increased to 2.57% in 2024, a rise of 0.55 percentage points [8] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and improve overall performance metrics [8] Group 3: Market and Product Strategy - The company focuses on three main industrial chains: ethylene oxide, propylene oxide, and adipic acid, aiming for vertical and horizontal expansion [9] - The company plans to increase R&D investment to drive innovation and product diversification [9] Group 4: Responses to Investor Queries - The company emphasizes its commitment to market value management through honest operations and enhancing profitability [6] - The company is addressing rising raw material costs by adjusting product pricing in response to market fluctuations [7] - The company is expanding its business scope to include power generation and distribution, leveraging rooftop solar projects [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the basic chemical industry [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The energy price center is expected to decline year-on-year in 2024, but terminal demand remains weak, leading to a bottoming out of chemical price spreads. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 is projected to be $80.93 per barrel, down 2% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, oil prices stabilized, and post-holiday terminal replenishment demand improved, leading to a recovery in basic chemical profitability. The report highlights a "V"-shaped bottom reversal in market conditions [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that while terminal demand was weak in 2024, certain sectors like chlor-alkali, compound fertilizers, and nylon saw significant performance improvements [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The chemical sector experienced a "W"-shaped trend in 2024, with construction projects peaking and then declining. The overall revenue for the chemical sector in 2024 was 2.81% higher year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 2.68% [2][3][36]. - In Q1 2025, the chemical sector's revenue reached 496.9 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 9% to 32.8 billion yuan [2][3][41]. 2. Sector Performance - The report identifies specific sectors with improved profitability in Q1 2025, including fluorochemicals, food and feed additives, pesticides, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers [2][3]. - The report notes that the overall asset-liability ratio for the chemical industry is 49.3%, indicating a historical low, and highlights a significant slowdown in capital expenditure growth [2][3][43]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical companies with strong fundamentals, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, as well as specific sectors like fluorochemicals and agricultural chemicals [2][3][4]. - It also highlights growth opportunities in semiconductor materials and panel materials, emphasizing companies with low valuations and strong performance potential [4][5].

Core Insights - The annual report meetings highlighted the focus on core business progress, profitability forecasts, and industry development prospects among the listed companies [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Performance and Profitability - InnoVate reported a sales net profit margin of 2.02% for 2023, projected to increase to 2.57% in 2024, driven by enhanced R&D and market development efforts [1] - HaiTai New Energy acknowledged a loss in Q1 2025 due to market environment changes and reduced gross profit margins, while actively seeking market expansion [2] - LiJia Technology experienced a decline in profitability in Q1 2025, attributed to market price fluctuations and increased operational costs, but plans to enhance R&D and market share [2][3] - Runpu Food indicated plans to improve product quality and production efficiency through technology upgrades and better procurement management [3] Group 2: Industry Trends and Development - The demand for lithium micro-power supplies is increasing due to the rapid development of electronic information technology, with applications in various sectors including consumer electronics and IoT [3] - The industry is undergoing transformation driven by "dual carbon" goals, with a shift from post-coating to pre-coating processes in high-end metal appearance composite materials [3] - HaiTai New Energy plans to invest 140 million yuan in R&D in 2024, representing 3.70% of its revenue, focusing on innovative solar energy solutions [4] - Companies are emphasizing technological innovation and training to enhance service integration and reduce heavy asset investments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, but showed significant improvement in net profit compared to the previous quarter, indicating potential recovery in profitability. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 500 million yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year but up 145.6% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 460 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 163.1% [1] Product Price and Margin Analysis - In Q1 2025, the price changes for various products were as follows: spandex (-0.8%), adipic acid (-2.7%), and shoe sole raw liquid (-2.6%) [2] - The price spread changes were: spandex (-3.0%), adipic acid (+4.8%), and shoe sole raw liquid (-5.2%) [2] - The company's gross margin was 13.5%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin was 8.0%, up 4.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Industry Trends - The spandex industry is experiencing increasing concentration, with significant demand growth expected due to changing consumer preferences and expanding applications [2] - Adipic acid faces short-term profitability pressures due to a mature and competitive domestic market, but long-term growth is anticipated with economic recovery and policy support [3] - The industry is undergoing consolidation, with a focus on quality improvement and integrated supply chains [3] Strategic Moves - The company is progressing with the acquisition of assets from major shareholders, which is expected to enhance its polyurethane industry chain layout [4] - The total transaction value for the acquisition is 6 billion yuan, with a cash payment of 600 million yuan and the issuance of 880 million shares [4] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the polyurethane products industry, with ongoing expansion in spandex and stable performance in polyurethane raw liquids [5] - Future net profits are projected to be 2.23 billion yuan in 2025, 3.06 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.62 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.31 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 500 million yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year but up 145.6% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 460 million yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year but up 163.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The recovery of the adipic acid price spread supports the company's profitability improvement. In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 13.5%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and the net profit margin was 8.0%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [12] - The demand for spandex is expected to maintain high growth due to the increasing concentration in the industry and the expansion of downstream applications. The company is positioned as a leader in the polyurethane products industry in China, focusing on spandex and adipic acid [12] - The profitability of adipic acid is under short-term pressure but remains promising in the long term. The industry is experiencing consolidation and increased quality demands, which may lead to a recovery in the future as economic conditions improve [12] - The major shareholder's asset injection is progressing steadily, which is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness and expand its polyurethane industry chain [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 500 million yuan, down 26.2% year-on-year but up 145.6% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 460 million yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year but up 163.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] Market Dynamics - The spandex industry is seeing increasing concentration, with high growth in demand expected due to evolving consumer preferences and expanding applications. The company is well-positioned to benefit from these trends [12] - The adipic acid market is currently under pressure but is expected to recover in the long term as economic conditions improve and new production capacities are developed [12] Strategic Developments - The major shareholder's asset injection is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness and expand its industry chain, with the transaction details involving a total consideration of 6 billion yuan [12]

Core Viewpoint - Huafeng Chemical's 2024 annual shareholder meeting did not approve 19 proposals related to the issuance of shares and cash payment for asset purchases and related transactions [1] Group 1: Shareholder Meeting Decisions - The shareholder meeting held on April 29, 2025, rejected proposals including the issuance of shares and cash for asset purchases [1] - A total of 19 proposals were not approved, including those concerning the related transaction report [1] Group 2: Proposed Transactions - Huafeng Chemical plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhejiang Huafeng Synthetic Resin Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Huafeng Thermoplastic Polyurethane Co., Ltd. from Huafeng Group for a total transaction price of 6 billion yuan [3][4] - The transaction price for Huafeng Synthetic Resin is set at 4.04 billion yuan, while for Huafeng Thermoplastic, it is 1.96 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Valuation and Financial Impact - The assessed value of Huafeng Synthetic Resin's equity is 4.044 billion yuan, showing an increase of 506.96% compared to the book value of 666.39 million yuan [4] - The assessed value of Huafeng Thermoplastic's equity is 1.963 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 478.49% compared to the book value of 339.37 million yuan [4] Group 4: Transaction Characteristics - The transaction is classified as a related party transaction, with Huafeng Group remaining the controlling shareholder and actual controller post-transaction [4] - The acquisition aims to integrate and extend the industrial chain within the polyurethane industry, enhancing the company's product line and business types [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the inbound economy may boost China's GDP by approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025, driven by policy changes aimed at optimizing the outbound tax refund system and increasing inbound consumption [5][6][7] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various industries and companies, indicating a mixed performance across sectors, with some companies showing strong growth while others face challenges [3][4] Industry Overview - **Chemical Industry**: Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue of 6.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, and a net profit of 504 million yuan, down 26.21% year-on-year, but a significant increase of 145.60% quarter-on-quarter [28][29] - **Coal Mining**: Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) faced a decline in both volume and price, leading to a projected annual revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.1% year-on-year [32][33] - **Textiles and Apparel**: Mousse Co., Ltd. (001323.SZ) reported a Q1 revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with expectations for recovery following government subsidies [54][55] - **Home Appliances**: Dechang Co., Ltd. (605555.SH) achieved a Q1 revenue of 1 billion yuan, up 21.33% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia [40][41] Company-Specific Insights - **Huafeng Chemical**: The company is consolidating its position in the polyurethane industry through vertical mergers and acquisitions, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 2.474 billion, 3.110 billion, and 3.822 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [28][30] - **Lu'an Environmental Energy**: The company is expected to see a rebound in coal prices, with a focus on capacity growth and price elasticity, maintaining a "buy" rating despite recent performance challenges [32][34] - **Mousse Co., Ltd.**: The company is enhancing its multi-channel and multi-category market layout, with a projected net profit of 799 million, 872 million, and 956 million yuan for 2025-2027 [54][55] - **Dechang Co., Ltd.**: The company is expanding its overseas production capacity and expects significant growth in its automotive motor segment, maintaining a "buy" rating [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huafeng Chemical [2][4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance was under pressure due to a decline in product prices, with revenue at 6.314 billion yuan, down 5.15% year-on-year, and net profit at 504 million yuan, down 26.21% year-on-year [3]. - Despite short-term challenges, the recovery in spandex prices since 2025 is expected to alleviate operational pressures for spandex manufacturers [3]. - Huafeng Chemical has a strong scale advantage, being the second-largest spandex producer globally and the largest in China, with significant production capacities in adipic acid and polyurethane [3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its scale advantage further [3]. - Investments in upstream raw material projects are anticipated to strengthen the company's cost advantages in the spandex industry [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts net profits of 2.133 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) of 0.43 yuan, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 [4][5]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 26.298 billion yuan in 2023 to 33.293 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.56% [5]. - The net profit is expected to decline slightly in 2025 before recovering in subsequent years, with a forecast of 2.664 billion yuan by 2027 [5]. Company Overview - Huafeng Chemical is a leading manufacturer of spandex fibers, adipic acid, and polyurethane raw materials, with a comprehensive product range that meets diverse customer needs [6]. - The company has established itself as a top player in the chemical fiber industry, recognized for its efficiency and product quality [6].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.314 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 504 million yuan, down 26.21% year-on-year [1] - The decline in product prices, particularly for spandex and adipic acid, has put short-term pressure on performance, although spandex prices have started to recover since 2025, which may ease operational pressures for spandex manufacturers [1] - The company's comprehensive gross margin decreased by 2.66 percentage points to 13.47% due to the impact of falling product prices, affecting net profit growth [1] Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has a strong market position in the polyurethane industry, with spandex production capacity and output ranking second globally and first in China, as well as leading production in adipic acid and polyurethane raw materials in the country [1] - As of 2024, the company has a spandex production capacity of 325,000 tons, with an additional 150,000 tons under construction; adipic acid capacity is 1.355 million tons, and polyurethane raw material capacity is 520,000 tons [1] - The spandex capacity utilization rate reached 109.98% and adipic acid utilization rate was 94.96% in 2024, indicating high operational efficiency [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in upstream raw material projects, including a 1.1 million ton natural gas integration project and a 240,000 ton PTMEG spandex industry chain deepening project, which are expected to enhance cost advantages in spandex production [2] - The company is recognized as a leading enterprise in spandex, adipic acid, and polyurethane raw materials, with significant scale, technology, and cost advantages, and plans to continue strengthening its market position [2] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 2.133 billion, 2.403 billion, and 2.664 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.43, 0.48, and 0.54 yuan [2] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, and the company maintains a "strong buy" rating [2]