Core Viewpoint - In the recent turbulent A-share market, stocks with expected performance growth have emerged as a "safe haven" for investors, with significant gains observed in certain sectors despite overall market declines [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - As of October 11, 43 A-share companies have disclosed their Q3 performance forecasts, with 41 companies expecting positive results, representing over 90% of the total [2]. - Among the companies with positive forecasts, 17 have projected net profit growth rates exceeding 100%, with Yinglian Co., Ltd. leading at an expected increase of 1672.97% [2]. - Guangdong Mingzhu anticipates a net profit of 215 million to 263 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 858.45% to 1071.44%, driven by increased output from its mining subsidiary [2]. Group 2: Absolute Profit Figures - Luxshare Precision is expected to report a net profit of approximately 10.89 billion to 11.34 billion yuan, making it the only company among those that have released forecasts to exceed 10 billion yuan [3]. - Shandong Steel is the only company expected to turn a profit, forecasting around 140 million yuan compared to a loss of 1.451 billion yuan in the same period last year, attributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3]. Group 3: Industry Distribution - The sectors of basic chemicals, electronics, and automotive have been identified as high-growth areas for performance forecasts, with five out of seven basic chemical companies expecting profit growth rates exceeding 100% [3]. - Limin Co., Ltd. is projected to achieve a net profit of 384 million to 394 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 649.71% to 669.25%, driven by rising product sales and prices [3].

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the non-ferrous metals industry continuing to lead the market [1] - During the National Day holiday, favorable factors for the non-ferrous industry have emerged, contributing to its ongoing leadership [1] - The current overall PB (LF) of the non-ferrous metals industry is at the historical 87.8 percentile, with specific sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and gold at 92.1%, 96.3%, 40.7%, and 83.6% percentiles respectively, indicating greater valuation upside potential for lithium [1] A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 22.36 times last week to 22.78 times this week, while PB (LF) rose from 2.17 times to 2.21 times [10] - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board increased from 81.61 times to 82.22 times, while its PB (LF) remained stable at 4.88 times [19] - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rose from 272.77 times to 276.66 times, with PB (LF) increasing from 6.72 times to 6.81 times [21] Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, major industries such as consumer discretionary, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical sectors have absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, with consumer discretionary and midstream manufacturing exceeding the 90th percentile [27] - In terms of PB (LF), TMT, midstream manufacturing, and consumer discretionary also show absolute and relative valuations above historical medians, while financial services and consumer staples are below historical medians [29] - The overall valuation of key companies in A-shares based on dynamic PE increased from 15.17 times to 15.19 times this week [14] Relative Valuation Expansion - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators and resource categories, decreased from 5.80 times to 5.66 times, while relative PB (LF) fell from 5.69 times to 5.54 times [23] - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like oil and petrochemicals, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2] ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares decreased from 0.80% to 0.76%, while the equity-debt yield spread fell from -0.19% to -0.24% [60] - The dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares increased from 2.76% to 2.77% this week [64]

Core Insights - In the recent fluctuations of the A-share market, companies with expected performance growth have emerged as a "safe haven" for investors [1] - As of October 11, 43 A-share companies have disclosed their Q3 performance forecasts, with over 90% (41 companies) expecting positive results [1] - Among the companies with positive forecasts, 17 have projected net profit growth exceeding 100%, with Yinglian Co., Ltd. leading at an increase of 1672.97% [1][2] Company Performance Highlights - Yinglian Co., Ltd. (002846.SZ) expects a net profit of 34.5 million to 37.5 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 1531.13% to 1672.97% due to improved efficiency and market share in the fast-moving consumer goods sector [1][2] - Guangdong Mingzhu (600382.SH) anticipates a net profit of 215 million to 263 million, reflecting a growth of 858.45% to 1071.44%, driven by increased output from its subsidiary and enhanced production techniques [2] - Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) is projected to have a net profit of approximately 10.89 billion to 11.34 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 20% to 25%, although it is the only company expected to exceed 10 billion in net profit [2] Industry Trends - The basic chemical, electronics, and automotive sectors are identified as high-growth areas for performance increases, with five out of seven companies in the basic chemical sector expecting net profit growth exceeding 100% [3] - Limin Co., Ltd. (002734.SZ) is expected to see a net profit of 384 million to 394 million, with a year-on-year increase of 649.71% to 669.25%, attributed to rising product prices and sales [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The profit of major industrial enterprises in China improved significantly in August 2025, with total profits reaching CNY 46,929.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. This marks a turnaround from negative to positive growth, with August profits alone showing a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [2][3]. - In the consumer goods manufacturing sector, essential food and beverage manufacturing industries experienced positive profit growth, while optional consumer sectors showed lackluster performance. Specifically, the agricultural and sideline food processing sector saw profits rise by 11.8% year-on-year, while nine other sectors reported negative growth, with declines exceeding 10% in five sectors [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Profit Performance - From January to August 2025, major industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 46,929.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% and an improvement of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. - The total operating revenue for the same period was CNY 896,231.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2]. Consumer Goods Manufacturing - Among 13 major categories in consumer goods manufacturing, four sectors, including agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, beverage and tea, and tobacco products, reported positive profit growth from January to August 2025 [3]. - The beverage and tea sector saw a profit growth rate increase of 22.7% compared to the previous month, while the chemical fiber and paper industries also experienced slight improvements [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: 1. **Food and Beverage**: The white liquor industry is seen as bottoming out, with low valuations and high dividends providing strong support. The report anticipates a market upturn ahead of financial performance improvements [4]. 2. **Social Services**: As a key driver of consumption recovery, sectors like tourism, duty-free, hotels, and restaurants are expected to benefit from policy support [4]. 3. **Retail**: The gold and jewelry sector is highlighted due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid global trade uncertainties, while domestic cosmetics brands are gaining traction [4]. 4. **Light Industry Manufacturing**: The report notes potential demand recovery in home appliances and furniture due to government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4].

Group 1: IPO Market Trends - In September 2025, the A-share market saw 12 new IPOs, raising a total of 11.9 billion yuan, a 308% increase month-on-month[9] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets issued 8 new stocks in September, with a total fundraising of 10.6 billion yuan, marking a 607% increase month-on-month[9] - The average first-day closing price increase for new stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 207%, maintaining a "zero break" status for the year[33] Group 2: Valuation and Investor Participation - The average first-day PE ratio for new stocks was 24 times, with a 31% discount compared to comparable companies, indicating a narrowing valuation gap[20] - The average subscription rate for A/B class investors in the Shenzhen market was 0.0216%/0.0182%, reflecting a decrease of 1% and 15% respectively month-on-month[27] - The average number of offline inquiry products in the Shenzhen market reached a new high, with 8,275 products participating in September[24] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - As of September 2025, there were 118 IPO projects pending approval in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total proposed fundraising of 208.8 billion yuan[59] - The approval and registration process for IPOs has accelerated, with 12 projects reviewed and 13 registered in September, both hitting yearly highs[54] - Risks include potential changes in the IPO review pace, adjustments in issuance systems, and fluctuations in investor participation[48]

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing sector shows further improvement with a notable recovery in small enterprises, as indicated by the September PMI data, which reported a manufacturing PMI of 49.8%, a non-manufacturing business activity index of 50.0%, and a composite PMI output index of 50.6% [2][3] - The production index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.9%, while the new orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, still below the critical point [3] - New export orders reached a high of 47.8%, marking a 0.6 percentage point increase, suggesting a reduction in the impact of tariff policies [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 50.0%, with the construction sector slightly improving to 49.3% and the service sector declining to 50.1% [4] - The composite PMI output index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.6%, driven by the recovery in manufacturing, which offset the short-term decline in non-manufacturing [4] A-Share Market Investment Strategy - Major indices in the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.09% and the ChiNext Index by 0.81% over the recent trading period [6][7] - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to clarify economic strategies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and supporting innovation as key components [7] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong structural characteristic, with potential investment opportunities in sectors such as TMT, electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and consumer services [8] Industry Research - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached CNY 9,400.40 billion from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.90% [14] - The light industry sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.54% against the index's increase of 3.20% [15] - The packaging paper industry is expected to see improved performance due to price increases being passed down to downstream sectors, with significant profit growth anticipated in Q3 [15][16] - The consumer market showed stable growth during the recent holiday period, with government subsidies expected to further stimulate sales in related sectors [15][16]

Core Insights - 32 companies have announced their performance forecasts for the first three quarters, with 28 companies expecting profit increases, representing 87.50% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies reporting positive forecasts is 90.63%, with one company expecting a profit and one company expecting a loss [1] - Among the companies expecting profit increases, 9 companies forecast a net profit growth exceeding 100%, while 6 companies expect growth between 50% and 100% [1] Company Performance - Yinglian Co. anticipates the highest net profit growth at 1602.05%, followed by Guangdong Mingzhu at 964.95% and Limin Co. at 659.48% [1] - The industries with the most companies expecting profit growth include basic chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals, with 3, 2, and 1 companies respectively [1] - The average increase in stock prices for companies expecting profit growth since July is 33.42%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Stock Performance and Fund Flow - The top performers since July include Changchuan Technology with a 113.21% increase, followed by Jinli Permanent Magnet at 65.65% and Brother Technology at 52.25% [1] - In terms of fund flow, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Shandong Steel, and Yonghe Co. have seen significant net inflows of 280.32 million, 17.97 million, and 0.79 million respectively [2] - Conversely, Changchuan Technology, Brother Technology, and Yinglian Co. experienced substantial net outflows of 913.49 million, 20.53 million, and 10.23 million respectively [2] Expected Profit Growth Companies - A list of companies with expected profit growth includes: - Yinglian Co. (1602.05% growth, latest price 19.99, net outflow 10.23 million) [2] - Guangdong Mingzhu (964.95% growth, latest price 6.24, net outflow 0.61 million) [2] - Limin Co. (659.48% growth, latest price 18.03, net outflow 6.73 million) [2] - Brother Technology (230.37% growth, latest price 7.43, net outflow 20.53 million) [2] - Jinli Permanent Magnet (168.00% growth, latest price 39.49, net inflow 280.32 million) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that 11 companies listed on the ChiNext board have announced positive earnings forecasts for the first three quarters of the year, indicating a strong performance trend in this segment of the market [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - A total of 11 companies are expected to report increased earnings, with the median expected net profit growth ranging from 2.48% to 168% [1] - The company with the highest expected net profit growth is Jinli (金力), projected at 168% [1] - Other notable companies include Changchuan Technology (长川科技) with a 138.39% increase and Taotao Automotive (涛涛车业) with a 99.10% increase [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The latest closing prices of these companies vary, with Jinli at 39.49 yuan and Taotao at 211.51 yuan [1] - Year-to-date stock performance shows significant fluctuations, with some companies like Jianda (建发) experiencing a decline of 23% [1] - The electronic sector appears to have multiple companies with strong earnings forecasts, including Changchuan Technology and C Yunhan (C云汉) [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The companies span various industries, including electronics, automotive, public utilities, and pharmaceuticals, indicating diverse growth opportunities within the ChiNext board [1] - The automotive sector shows promising growth with companies like Taotao and United Power (联合动力) both forecasting substantial profit increases [1] - The electronic industry is particularly highlighted, with several companies such as C Yunhan and Dinglong (鼎龙) showing strong earnings projections [1]

Investment Rating - The report includes a selection of 81 A-shares and 56 overseas Chinese stocks, indicating a positive investment outlook for these sectors [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the addition of Yutong Technology (裕同科技) to the A-share selection due to favorable short-term operational prospects, while Oppein Home (欧派家居) has been removed due to short-term performance pressures [2][4]. - For overseas Chinese stocks, China Taiping (中国太平) has been added, reflecting its successful early transformation in dividend insurance and low valuation, which is expected to yield alpha returns [4][6]. Summary by Sections A-Shares - Newly added stock: Yutong Technology (裕同科技), stock code: 002831.SZ, recommended for its short-term operational improvement [4]. - Removed stock: Oppein Home (欧派家居), stock code: 603833.SH, due to short-term performance pressures [5]. Overseas Chinese Stocks - Newly added stock: China Taiping (中国太平), stock code: 0966.HK, noted for its early completion of dividend insurance transformation and low asset base expected to drive future growth [4][6].

Core Insights - A total of 23 companies have announced their performance forecasts for the first three quarters, with 20 companies expecting profit increases, representing 86.96% of the total [1] - Among the profit-increasing companies, four are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 100%, while another four are projected to have growth between 50% and 100% [1] Company Performance - Yinglian Co., Ltd. is expected to have the highest net profit growth, with a median increase of 1602.05% for the first three quarters [1] - Brother Technology and Yonghe Co., Ltd. are projected to have median net profit growth of 230.37% and 218.42%, ranking second and third respectively [1] Industry Analysis - The companies expecting to double their profits are primarily concentrated in the basic chemicals, electronics, and light manufacturing sectors, with 2, 1, and 1 companies respectively [1] - In terms of market segments, three companies are listed in the main board and one in the ChiNext board among those expected to double their profits [1] Stock Performance - Since July, the average increase for companies expecting to double their profits is 47.86%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - Changchuan Technology has seen the largest increase since July, with a cumulative rise of 122.32%, followed by Brother Technology and Yonghe Co., Ltd. with increases of 48.77% and 23.18% respectively [1]