一边是在AI军备竞赛中愈发不可或缺，另一边，随着各国政府加大国防支出，从子弹壳、喷气式战斗 机到导弹系统等武器装备，也正需要大量铜。(格隆汇) 港股有色金属股普遍活跃，其中铜业股涨幅最为明显，其中，江西铜业股份涨近8%表现较佳，且刷新 上市新高价，五矿资源涨近7%，中国有色矿业涨6%，中国黄金国际涨超1%。 消息上，当地时间9月9日，英美资源集团和加拿大泰克资源公司正式宣布将合并。若获得监管机构批 准，这将成为十余年来全球矿业最大规模合并案。在不少业内人士看来，这出矿业领域的"世纪交易"， 实质上便是对铜这一工业金属未来需求的巨额押注。全球铜消费量已持续攀升多年，但新增供应量预计 将很难跟上需求增速。 人工智能的崛起显然正在推动铜需求的激增，这一金属正被大量投入耗电量惊人的数字中心服务器集 群。一个人工智能数据中心的年耗电量，可能就足以媲美数十万辆电动汽车的总和。研究机构 BloombergNEF的数据显示，未来十年全球数据中心将消耗超过430万公吨铜，这几乎相当于全球最大供 应国智利一年的产量。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00 ...

Market Overview - On September 12, A-shares opened mixed with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3884.70, up 0.24%, Shenzhen Component Index at 12995.04, up 0.12%, and ChiNext Index at 3039.17, down 0.48% [2] - The sectors showing gains included cultivated diamonds, shipping, and computing power leasing, while CPO, optical communication, and 6G sectors faced declines [1] Company Highlights - Evergrande Property experienced significant volatility, initially rising over 40% before settling at a 21.74% increase after news of potential share sales by its controlling shareholder [2][3] - The real estate sector saw a rally, with stocks like Rongsheng Development, Huaxia Happiness, and New Dazheng hitting the daily limit [3] - The storage chip sector also showed strength, with companies like Demingli hitting the daily limit and others like Purun and Dongxin following suit [5] - Kioxia announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to develop SSDs with speeds nearly 100 times faster than traditional SSDs, boosting the computing power sector [7] - Qingshan Paper experienced a four-day consecutive limit-up, with other companies in the computing power sector also seeing gains [7] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw early gains, with Northern Copper and Electric Alloy hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Yunnan Copper and Jiangxi Copper also rising [9] - The robotics sector strengthened, with Worldde rising over 15% and Shoukai Co. achieving eight limit-ups in seven days [12] - Shoukai Co. disclosed its indirect stake in Yushu Technology through its subsidiary, with a low holding percentage of approximately 0.3% [14]

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the traditional consumption peak season may lead to a slightly stronger and fluctuating price of Shanghai copper [2]. - The continuous arrival of imported copper and the weak demand may cause a slight increase in copper inventory [2]. - The high - investment in the national power grid in 2025 can provide support for the wire and cable industry and offset the weak demand from downstream industries to some extent [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, a decrease of 20,309 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, an increase of 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, an increase of 902 tons; the basis was 45, up 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.671, up 0.10; the total inventory was 309,834, an increase of 2,138 [2]. Important Information - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the domestic mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons this week. The in - transit inventory reached a record high due to delivery demand. SMM expects that with the continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, the copper inventory will increase slightly [2]. - **National Grid Investment**: In 2025, the investment of the national power grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. The stable orders of the national power grid can provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry [2]. Long - Short Logic - **Supply**: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia under Freeport suspended mining due to an accident on September 8. There are disruptions in the production of many domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative but rising China copper concentrate import index. The supply - demand of domestic copper concentrates is expected to be tight, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates tend to decline. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September has increased [2]. - **Demand**: New orders for copper enameled wires have shown signs of improvement, but high copper prices suppress the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has slightly decreased, but the in - transit inventory has increased due to delivery demand; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

9月11日国内市场电解铜现货库存14.90万吨，较8日降0.14万吨。周内进口铜虽仍有所到货入库，但日内 进口贴水货源吸引下游逢低采购，加之国产货源到货相对不多，部分仓库入库量有限，库存因此重新去 库。 沪铜小幅高开，日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨0.56%，期价重返80000关口。美联储降息预期继续强 化，海外矿端扰动增加，国内精铜社库并未继续累积，沪铜偏强运行。 隔夜公布的美国PPI意外低于预期，特朗普继续督促降息，目前美联储9月降息较为确定，市场继续等待 美国8月CPI表现。 最近国内铜精矿加工费徘徊在较低位置，暗示矿紧状态难以缓解，且海外矿端也传来一些扰动，印尼 Grasberg矿山发生事故，已暂停全部采矿作业，后续仍需关注对矿端的冲击。 对于沪铜走势，新湖期货表示，从近期公布的美国PMI等经济数据来看，美国经济距衰退仍有距离，预 防式降息有助于后续美国经济和制造业改善，从而提振铜价。从基本面来看，铜供需相对健康，铜矿供 应持续紧缺，矿端干扰事件频发；海外炼厂已开启减产，国内炼厂也有望从9月份开启减产；铜需求端 在电网投资高增长背景下韧性较强。基本面支撑叠加降息预期提振，铜价易涨难跌，可考虑逢低建仓。 （ ...

基本面无太多意外 宏观因素令铜价震荡偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-11 冶炼及进口方面，，外电9月8日消息，周一智利央行公布数据显示，2025年8月该国铜出口额为41.6亿美元，同比下 降2.2%。分析人士指出，出口下滑主要受国际铜价调整及部分矿区生产不稳影响，但总体幅度有限。与此同时， 全球对清洁能源和电动汽车的需求依旧强劲，为智利铜出口提供长期支撑。 消费方面，据Mysteel调研显示，2025年8月，国内铜杆及铜管行业呈现分化态势。精铜杆领域，调研的61家企业（总 产能1584万吨）实际产量84.78万吨，环比增2.76%，产能利用率63.02%。增长主要源于铜价回调刺激集中补库订 单，加之行业政策调整与价差收缩促使部分需求从再生铜杆转移，带动生产积极性提升。与之相反，再生铜杆产 量环比降7.15%至17.26万吨，产能利用率仅24.81%，主因原料供应收紧及政策波动影响，尤其江西主产区环比减 产1.11万吨。铜管产量同步走弱，8月产量14.45万吨，环比降7.84%，产能利用率62.55%。其中大型企业（产能10 万吨以上）开工率降幅达8.65%，主机厂排产计划下 ...

2025年国内铜市需求端呈现显著的结构性分化特征。传统消费领域需求疲软，空调零售量虽然保持增长，但9月排产数据下滑；房地产行业缓慢复苏，需求 同样疲软。新能源和电力行业需求强劲，前7个月新能源汽车销量为650万辆，同比增长29%；全国累计发电装机容量同比增长18.2%，为铜需求提供了有力 的支撑。 库存方面，数据显示，截至9月5日当周，沪铜仓单数量同比下降85%；沪铜库存为8.2万吨，同比下降66%；LME铜库存为15.8万吨，同比下降50%。与之形 成鲜明对比的是，COMEX铜周度库存同比大幅增长661%，至30.53万吨。这反映出全球铜显性库存正在流向美国。 整体来看，四季度全球铜市将迎来传统的需求旺季，但基本面的结构性矛盾依然存在。供应方面，矿端新增产能释放速度偏慢，铜精矿供应偏紧的格局没有 改变。需求方面，预计四季度美国进口需求强劲；我国新能源和电力行业快速发展将继续为铜需求提供有力支撑，房地产和传统消费领域需求有望缓慢复 苏。 综上所述，美联储降息预期升温为市场提供流动性支持，现货市场供需紧平衡状态延续，预计四季度铜价将呈现偏强震荡走势。中长期来看，全球铜市供需 处于结构性调整阶段，传统消费领域需求 ...

近期，沪铜主力合约在79000~80700元／吨区间运行。展望四季度，受美联储降息预期升温、基本面偏 强等利多因素影响，预计沪铜价格走势偏强。 宏观方面，美联储降息预期升温将为大宗商品市场提供流动性支持，但全球贸易摩擦仍然存在不确定 性。 2025年国内铜市需求端呈现显著的结构性分化特征。传统消费领域需求疲软，空调零售量虽然保持增 长，但9月排产数据下滑；房地产行业缓慢复苏，需求同样疲软。新能源和电力行业需求强劲，前7个月 新能源汽车销量为650万辆，同比增长29%；全国累计发电装机容量同比增长18.2%，为铜需求提供了有 力的支撑。 库存方面，数据显示，截至9月5日当周，沪铜仓单数量同比下降85%；沪铜库存为8.2万吨，同比下降 66%；LME铜库存为15.8万吨，同比下降50%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，COMEX铜周度库存同比大幅 增长661%，至30.53万吨。这反映出全球铜显性库存正在流向美国。 整体来看，四季度全球铜市将迎来传统的需求旺季，但基本面的结构性矛盾依然存在。供应方面，矿端 新增产能释放速度偏慢，铜精矿供应偏紧的格局没有改变。需求方面，预计四季度美国进口需求强劲； 我国新能源和电力行业快速发 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The high copper prices and weak downstream demand are putting pressure on the copper price. Although the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, the weak downstream demand and imported copper arrivals in China may lead to an adjustment in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors wait for the price to fall before placing long orders and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,770 yuan, down 340 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,122 lots; the open interest was 184,021 lots, down 8,088 lots from the previous day; the inventory was 19,829 tons, up 358 tons from the previous day [2]. - **LME Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 8,886 US dollars, down 77.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of bonded and cancelled warrants was 157,950 tons; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.16 US dollars, down 0.27 US dollars from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 180.56 US dollars, down 13.64 US dollars from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4.5645 US dollars per pound, down 0.08 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 302,744 tons, up 21,669 tons from the previous day [2]. Important Information - **Industry Demand**: The weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4%, and new orders decreased by 0.81 percentage points. The industry shows no signs of recovery, with both the operating rate and orders continuing to shrink [2]. - **Supply - side News**: Teck Resources has postponed a major expansion project and is focusing on solving the production problems of its flagship QB copper mine in Chile [2]. Trading Strategy - **Supply**: There are disruptions in the production of many copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative and decreasing China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates are decreasing, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September is increasing month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: High copper prices and hot weather are suppressing downstream consumption, leading to a decrease in the operating capacity of most downstream copper processing industries [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week, the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [2]. - **Recommendation**: Wait for the price to fall before placing long orders. Pay attention to the support levels of 77,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 for London copper, and 4.0 - 4.2 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Group 1: Company Overview - The company achieved an operating revenue of 889.13 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.27% [2] - The total profit for the same period was 18.95 billion yuan, up 2.94% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.17 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 24.32% [2] Group 2: Production Performance - The company produced 779,400 tons of cathode copper, a year-on-year increase of 53.22% [3] - Gold production reached 12.19 tons, up 98.86% year-on-year, and silver production was 276.63 tons, also up 98.70% [3] - Sulfuric acid production amounted to 2.8629 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.63% [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on "smart transformation, expanding resources, refining mining, optimizing smelting, solidifying recycling, and fine-tuning rare metals" to enhance competitiveness [4] - The company has no plans for production cuts despite the low copper smelting processing fees, as it aims to maintain cost competitiveness through various efficiency measures [5] Group 4: Acquisition Plans - The company plans to acquire a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining from its controlling shareholder, Yunnan Copper Group, which has been approved by the shareholders' meeting [9] - This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's resource reserves and overall profitability, as well as improve its competitive position in the industry [9] Group 5: Resource Management - The company is actively engaged in geological research and exploration to ensure resource replacement and increase reserves [10] - As of June 2025, the company holds 956 million tons of copper ore resources, with a total copper metal content of 3.6137 million tons and an average grade of 0.38% [11]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Core View - With fundamental support, copper prices should mainly be bought on dips [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper fluctuated downward, with total positions decreasing and the near - month spread turning to back. The sentiment became more cautious. A - share continuous decline and the upcoming US non - farm payroll data pressured copper prices [10] - Spot copper dropped 330 to 80190, and the premium fell 10 to 180. Imported copper arrivals suppressed the premium. Social inventory increased by 0.85 million tons this week, mainly due to a 1.02 - million - ton increase in Shanghai caused by large - scale imported arrivals [10] - As the LME 0 - 3 contango structure narrowed, spot imports turned to a small loss of 50 yuan/ton, but the premiums for warehouse receipts and bills of lading continued to rise to 57 and 60 US dollars/ton respectively, indicating strong demand for imported copper [10] - LME inventory decreased by 200 tons, showing an increase in domestic inventory and a decrease in overseas inventory. The expected centralized production cuts by smelters in September have not been reflected in domestic social inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory destocking progress [10] 3.2 Industry News - Freeport - McMoRan is advancing three expansion projects (two in the US and one in Chile) and researching a technological innovation to boost annual production. It plans to invest $3.5 billion to expand a copper mine in Arizona, aiming to double the concentrator's capacity and increase copper and molybdenum production. The project is expected to make an investment decision by the end of 2025 and start production in 2029. It may also increase the capacity of the Lone Star copper mine in Arizona and the El Abra mine in Chile [11] - In September, China's refined copper market saw a rare supply contraction. Multiple research institutions predicted a 4% - 5% month - on - month decline in China's refined copper production this month, the first decline in September since 2016. The new tax policy reduced scrap copper processing profits, weakening the incentive to smelt scrap copper into anode copper. Additionally, smelters entered the peak equipment maintenance period in September, with the number of shut - down smelters increasing from three to five. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to drop by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9%, magnifying the supply contraction effect. This production cut coincides with the peak copper consumption season [11][12]