1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite short - term news - induced pullbacks, the medium - to long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai copper 2603 being 94,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - The vulnerability of the copper mine end is prominent, with frequent production disruptions at major overseas mines. From 2025 - 2026, global copper mine production growth is expected to be limited. Although domestic refined copper production increased in December 2025, future production may decline due to reduced processing fees. - Recent domestic downstream copper consumption has weakened, and Nvidia's revision of copper demand data for data centers may lower market expectations for future copper demand. However, the impact on overall copper demand is relatively limited. New energy, power grids, photovoltaic, and wind power are expected to maintain high - speed growth and remain the main drivers of new copper demand. In the context of limited supply growth, the supply - demand balance of copper is likely to tighten in the short term, and the long - term upward price trend is unlikely to change [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai copper 2603 being 94,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro**: The US imposed a 25% tariff on some semiconductors starting from January 15, 2026, with exemptions for data centers and the public sector. Copper import tariffs only apply to semi - finished products, and refined copper is not restricted. The People's Bank of China lowered the re - lending rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19. China will cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting from April 1, and the tax rebate rate for battery products will be phased out [9]. - **Supply**: The vulnerability of the copper mine end is prominent, with frequent production disruptions at major overseas mines. The ICSG predicts that the global copper mine production growth rate may drop to 0.9% in 2025. From 2025 - 2026, copper mine production growth is expected to be restricted. In December 2025, domestic refined copper production increased by 76,000 tons month - on - month. Overseas smelting capacity expansion is slow due to energy prices [9]. - **Demand**: Domestic downstream copper consumption has weakened recently, with an increase in production cuts and suspensions. Nvidia's revision of copper demand data for data centers may lower market expectations for future copper demand, but the impact on overall copper demand is relatively limited. New energy, power grids, photovoltaic, and wind power are expected to maintain high - speed growth and remain the main drivers of new copper demand [9]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, while domestic social and exchange inventories increased rapidly. The off - season and significant price increases have affected downstream demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures, Spot, and Premiums**: Relevant data on domestic futures and spot prices and Shanghai flat - water copper premiums are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [13]. - **LME Copper Price and Shanghai - London Ratio**: Relevant data on LME copper price trends and the Shanghai - London ratio are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [15]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Large - scale Copper Mine Discoveries**: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated significantly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year, and new large - scale copper mines are often located in areas with poor geological conditions or political instability, with long development cycles [24]. - **Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution**: In 2024, the top three countries in global copper mine production were Chile (23%), Congo (DRC) (15%), and Peru (11%); the top three countries in global refined copper production were China (45%), Congo (DRC) (9%), and Chile (7%) [27][29]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees TC and Global Copper Mine Production**: As of January 16, 2026, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - 46.40 US dollars/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was 3498 US dollars/dry ton. In 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 15.305 million tons from January to October, and the annual production in 2024 was 22.388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [33]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In November 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In the third week of 2026, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 547,000 tons [40]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In October 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2419 million tons, with a consumption of 2.2433 million tons, a supply shortage of 1400 tons. From January to October 2025, the global refined copper production was 22.6095 million tons, with a consumption of 22.5734 million tons, a supply surplus of 36,100 tons. In October 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%; from January to October, the cumulative production was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [44]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume**: In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 304,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 3.1031 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 278,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 681,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% [46]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative imports of recycled copper raw materials (copper scrap and waste) were 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. As of January 16, 2026, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 5505 yuan/ton, higher than the reasonable price difference of 1500 yuan/ton [50][51]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 141,600 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market rose to 542,900 tons, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [58][59]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Since the end of the year, domestic social and SHFE copper inventories have increased rapidly. As of January 15, 2026, the domestic social inventory was 327,500 tons, and the SHFE inventory reached a new high since May last year [63][64]. 3.4 Primary Processing and End - user Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 22.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, the cumulative imports were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. From January to November 2025, the total export of unwrought copper was 1.4971 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.10% [70][75]. - **End - user Market - Power**: From January to November 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 850 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the investment in power grid projects was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [79]. - **End - user Market - Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; among them, residential investment was 6.0432 trillion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [85]. - **End - user Market - Automobile**: From January to November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4% respectively. From January to November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.780 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. It is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 1.85 million in 2026, and although the copper consumption growth rate will drop to about 15%, the absolute increase in copper consumption will still be considerable [90][95]. - **End - user Market - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the national air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; from January to November, the cumulative output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to November 2025, the export volume of Chinese household appliances was 4.082801 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, the cumulative export of air - conditioners from January to November was 55.13 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [99]. - **End - user Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the installed capacity of wind power was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. It is expected that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China in 2026 will be between 235 - 270GW, and the new installed capacity of wind power in 2025 will be 78 - 80GW. The single - consumption of copper in photovoltaic and wind power is gradually decreasing. It is expected that the copper consumption of photovoltaic and wind power installations in China will decrease by 2% in 2025 and by more than 12% in 2026 [103][107]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: Since 2020, the global copper demand structure has changed significantly. It is expected that the proportion of green copper demand (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed that of construction demand in 2025. From 2026 - 2028, the global refined copper supply will be 27.97 million tons, 28.94 million tons, and 28.84 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.4%; the global refined copper demand will be 28.13 million tons, 28.80 million tons, and 29.45 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.3%. There will be continuous supply shortages of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons from 2026 - 2028 [110][111]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content is provided in the report.

证券日报网1月16日讯 ，云南铜业（000878）在接受调研者提问时表示，资产注入涉及复杂的系统工 作，需综合考虑发展战略、资产条件、监管要求及股东利益等多方面因素。公司将持续关注并努力提升 上市公司质量，如有新的相关安排，将严格按照规定履行决策和披露程序。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. focuses on copper products, which are essential materials in various industries due to their excellent conductivity, thermal conductivity, mechanical properties, and high-temperature resistance [1] Company Overview - The company's main product is copper, widely used in power electronics, real estate, transportation, consumer goods, and industrial equipment [1] - The company also produces by-products including gold, silver, sulfuric acid, and various rare metals such as platinum, palladium, and rhenium, which are indispensable materials in the industrial system [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with a relatively limited correction range. Attention should be paid to opportunities for going long at low prices [5][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data shows that in December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to 56,000, and the October data was further revised down. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. The CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared to the previous value. The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation [5][12]. - The US will impose a 25% import ad - valorem tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from the 15th. However, copper input materials including refined copper are not subject to the tariff, which eases the concern of copper flowing to the US and weakens the support for copper prices [12]. - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2%. The PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [13]. - China's State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination, and the central bank introduced a series of measures to support high - quality economic development. The central bank also stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [17]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged, and the registered warrants of LME have dropped sharply [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The rebound of the US dollar index increases the pressure on non - ferrous metals, the macro sentiment has weakened, and the domestic social inventory of copper continues to accumulate [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper Mine Supply**: In 2025, the global copper mine supply was severely disrupted by various events, and the supply of copper concentrates is expected to have a significant gap. The gap may further expand in 2026 and turn to a loose state in 2027 [21]. - **Copper Concentrate TC**: As of the week of January 9, the My steel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 44.81 dollars/ton dry, down 0.08 dollars/ton dry from the previous week. The strike at the Chilean Mantoverde copper mine intensifies the market's concern about supply shortages [24]. - **Electrolytic Copper Output**: In December, the SMM China electrolytic copper output increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, with a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The estimated output in January 2026 was 1.1636 million tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease [28]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In November, China's scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.9%. However, it is expected that the scrap copper supply will tighten in 2026 due to increased global demand [32]. - **Copper Rod Production**: In December 2025, the production of domestic copper rods decreased by 16.61% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. In January 2026, the production and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, but the overall increase was limited [36]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference**: As of January 15, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 2,950 yuan/ton, which is still at a high level, not conducive to refined copper consumption [39]. - **Copper Inventory**: Last week, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, and SHFE copper inventory increased significantly. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper also accumulated [50]. - **Copper Spot Premium**: On January 15, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper was around - 120 yuan/ton, with an expanded discount. The LME0 - 3 spot premium was around 37.6 dollars/ton, with an expanded premium [54]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices will maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with a relatively limited correction range, and attention should be paid to opportunities for going long at low prices [57].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper sector in the non - ferrous metals industry is "oscillating with a downward bias" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The core factor driving the copper price to break through the historical high is the concern about the US imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, which leads to the concentration of global copper liquidity in the US. At the beginning of 2026, the non - commercial long and net long positions of COMEX copper, as well as the long and net long positions of LME copper investment funds, all continued to rise. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell and the Trump administration's threat to the Fed are expected to put pressure on the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to metals with strong financial attributes such as gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The night - session closing price of the main copper contract CU2603 was 102,860 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decline from the previous night - session closing price. The second - main contract CU2604 closed at 103,080 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.74%. As of 06:00 on January 16, 2026, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract HGH26E was 5.9915 US dollars per pound (equivalent to 92,063 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9698), a 1.7% decline from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03 closed at 13,148.5 US dollars per ton (equivalent to 91,642 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9698), a 0.3% decline [1] Important Information - On January 15, Codelco announced that its Ministro Hales copper mine had obtained environmental approval, with its operating life extended to 2054 and annual production capacity increased from 170,000 tons to 200,000 tons [1] - On January 15, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 LME copper price forecast from 11,400 US dollars per ton to 12,200 US dollars per ton [1] - On January 11, China Non - Ferrous Metal Mining (1258.HK) released a production guidance, expecting a total copper production of about 484,000 tons in 2026, including about 134,000 tons of cathode copper and about 350,000 tons of blister copper/anode copper. The main and auxiliary shafts of the southeast ore body of Zhongse Feikuang Qianbi were repaired in December 2025, and the mine resumed production on January 1, 2026 [1] - On January 13, Codelco's chairman said that the company's copper production in 2026 was expected to reach 1.344 million tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons compared to 2025 [1] Market Logic - The fear of US tariffs on refined copper led to the concentration of global copper liquidity in the US, causing the LME copper inventory in Europe to decline from nearly 70,000 tons to less than 15,000 tons since April, and the COMEX copper inventory to rise from less than 100,000 short tons to over 500,000 tons. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell and the Trump administration's threat to the Fed are expected to put pressure on interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to metals with strong financial attributes [1] Trading Strategy - There is no trading strategy provided at present [1]

Group 1 - Yunnan Copper announced that it will accept investor research on January 14 and 15, 2026, with participation from the finance department manager and securities affairs representative [1] - The company is engaging with investors through a research meeting, indicating a proactive approach to investor relations [1] Group 2 - Silver prices have surged over 80% in the last 50 days, significantly outpacing gold, suggesting a potential peak in the precious metals bull market [1] - Historical trends indicate that explosive growth in silver often signals a climax in the precious metals market, raising questions about the current market dynamics [1]

金瑞期货分析称，宏观方面，特朗普称暂缓对关键矿产征税，金属市场有所回落。基本面上，智利 Mantoverde铜矿出现罢工，厄瓜多尔Mirador铜矿二期扩产延期，铜矿紧张矛盾仍存。进出口方面，未 来国内淡季，或仍保持对外出口。消费端，近期下游消费表现仍走弱，减停产情况增加。国内平衡保持 较多过剩。海外方面，CL价差收窄，需持续观察美国进口量，可能影响未来紧张预期。展望后市，暂 缓关税令市场有所降温，但对铜影响可能不大，CL价差未出现明显变化。因此，预期的紧张维持尚未 扭转和证伪看待，铜价总体的偏强震荡可能尚未结束。 广州期货指出，国内央行下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，并强调今年降准降息还有一 定空间，提振市场信心。产业面，铜市紧原料叙事逻辑持续，当前美国已琐死全球一半以上铜库存，非 美市场整体现货流通相对有限，警惕春节前后下游可能的补库行为或引发库存的去化，从而给价格带来 新的上涨驱动，近期LME库存再次转为下降，关注持续性，铜价维持易涨难跌态势。主力合约波动参 考10.1-10.5万。 1月16日，国内期市有色金属板块跌幅居前。其中，沪铜期货主力合约开盘报103030.00元/吨，今日盘 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities predicts that 2026 will be a "Red Horse Year" for the Chinese base metals market, driven by favorable conditions for electrification and AI power infrastructure in 2023 due to factors such as a weak dollar and the US interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The supply of copper and aluminum remains tight [1] - Demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery production, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - The anti-involution policy is becoming more balanced, although recent enforcement has been weak [1] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Preferred stocks include aluminum companies as alternative investments for AI power supply, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio between 8 to 10 times [1] - Positive outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks; neutral view on coal; bearish on solar energy and construction materials (like steel) due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 3: Specific Stock Picks - Key stock picks include China Aluminum (601600) (02600), Zijin Mining (601899) (02899), China Hongqiao (01378), Shandong Gold (600547) (01787), and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) (01772) [1] - Underperforming stocks identified include Tongwei Co. (600438) (600438.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), Ansteel (000898) (00347), and China Resources Cement (01313) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to several key factors, including a weak US dollar and a US interest rate cut cycle benefiting metals [1] - Key demand drivers for this year include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery demand, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] - Supply constraints for copper and aluminum are expected to continue, contributing to the overall market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The preferred investment stocks include aluminum companies, with a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio between 8 to 10 times, and a "buy" outlook on gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - The company holds a neutral view on coal and a bearish outlook on solar energy and construction materials (such as steel) due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] - Key stocks that are expected to underperform the market include Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Xinyi Solar (00968), Ansteel Group (00347), and China Resources Cement Technology (01313) [1]

Group 1 - Ivanhoe Mines has achieved its 2025 production targets for both the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and the Kipushi zinc mine, indicating a steady recovery after a year of disruptions and significant increases in a key smelting plant's output [2] - The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine is recognized as one of the most important new copper resources globally, with a production of 388,838 tons of copper concentrate in 2025, aligning with the expected range of 380,000-420,000 tons [2][3] - The company has set its 2026 copper production guidance at 380,000–420,000 tons, with expectations for further increases due to improved access to high-grade ore and ongoing underground drainage work [3] Group 2 - A significant milestone for the company was the launch of Africa's largest copper smelting plant at the end of 2025, which currently produces an average of 500 tons of 99.7% pure anode copper daily [4] - The first batch of export products is expected to be shipped soon [5] - The anticipated copper sales volume for the Kamoa-Kakula mine in 2026 is projected to exceed production by 20,000 tons due to the consumption of unsold copper concentrate inventory [6] Group 3 - The Kipushi mine reported a record zinc concentrate production of 203,168 tons in 2025, meeting its guidance target [7] - The company has set its 2026 zinc production target between 240,000–290,000 tons, with December's production indicating an annualized output exceeding 270,000 tons [8]