Market Overview - On January 22, 2026, the main copper futures contract opened at 100,550 CNY/ton and closed at 100,700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous trading day [2] - The night session saw the main copper contract open at 99,800 CNY/ton and close at 100,270 CNY/ton, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2] Spot Market - SMM reported that the spot price for 1 electrolytic copper was quoted at a discount of 260 to 80 CNY/ton against the current month contract, with an average discount of 170 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton from the previous day [3] - The spot price range was between 99,740 and 100,400 CNY/ton, with trading activity gradually improving and downstream purchasing sentiment recovering [3][13] Economic and Geopolitical News - U.S. President Trump stated that the Greenland agreement would grant the U.S. "all desired military access," and threatened strong retaliation if European countries sold U.S. assets due to tariff threats related to Greenland [4] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized growth of 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [4] - The core PCE price index for November rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations [5] Mining Sector Developments - Chile's newly elected President José Antonio Kast caused a stir by merging the mining department into the economy ministry, raising concerns about the government's understanding of the mining sector's importance [5][15] - The new minister, Daniel Man, lacks direct mining experience, leading to criticism regarding the decision's implications for the mining industry's leadership [15] Copper Supply and Demand - As of January 20, 2026, copper inventories at the Comex exceeded 500,000 tons for the first time, reaching 554,904 short tons (approximately 50.34 million tons), a 1.3% increase from January 16 [6] - This inventory level is historically high, being more than three times that of LME copper inventories and close to one-third of the projected U.S. refined copper consumption of 1.58 million tons in 2024 [6] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper production of 2.37 million tons and consumption of 2.28 million tons for November 2025, resulting in a surplus of 9.4 million tons [6][16] Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks changed by 3,100 tons to 168,250 tons, while SHFE stocks decreased by 2,408 tons to 143,173 tons [7][17] - Domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory stood at 330,200 tons, a slight increase of 800 tons from the previous week [17] Market Strategy - The outlook for copper is neutral, with recent tariffs on semiconductors affecting demand for non-ferrous metals, including copper, which has seen limited price corrections despite high prices and weak downstream demand [8] - Current copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 99,500 CNY/ton to 110,000 CNY/ton [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that copper inventories at the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) have surpassed 500,000 tons for the first time, driven by expectations of potential import tariffs starting next year, leading to a significant influx of copper into the U.S. market [2][3] - As of January 20, COMEX certified warehouse copper inventory reached 554,904 short tons (approximately 50.34 million tons), marking a 1.3% increase from January 16, and setting a historical high [2] - This inventory level is over three times that of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and is close to one-third of the projected U.S. refined copper consumption of 1.58 million tons in 2024 [2] Group 2 - Following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, 2025, there has been a substantial increase in copper shipments to the U.S. [3] - Despite refined copper being exempt from tariffs, the anticipation of a potential 15% tariff by 2027 continues to drive copper inflow into the U.S. market [3] - Analysts suggest that the current pricing structure and tariff uncertainties will likely keep copper flowing into the U.S. market until at least mid-2026, with U.S. copper inventories effectively becoming a strategic reserve [3] Group 3 - The copper arbitrage window between LME and COMEX has narrowed, leading to a potential increase in copper inflow to LME warehouses as traders seek to capitalize on price differences [5] - The LME warehouse in New Orleans has recently received its first copper inflow since mid-September of the previous year, with registered copper warehouse receipts reaching 1,525 tons [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is under pressure due to market risk aversion [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,230 with a daily increase of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 99,300 with a decrease of 1.28%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,797 with a decrease of 1.47% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 335,565, a decrease of 128,098 from the previous day, and the open interest was 634,562, an increase of 7,401. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 27,891, an increase of 7,244, and the open interest was 326,000, a decrease of 589 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai copper was 148,193, a decrease of 4,462, and the inventory of LME copper was 156,300, an increase of 8,875. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 30.58%, a decrease of 2.35% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper premium was 67.55, an increase of 6.03 from the previous day. The premium of bonded - area warehouse receipts was 26, a decrease of 2. The premium of bonded - area bills of lading was 25, a decrease of 2. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 89,300, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: There was a sell - off of Japanese long - term bonds, and the "Truss moment" was encountered. Coupled with the Greenland crisis, risk - aversion sentiment increased, and there was a "sell - US" trade in the market. The Japanese finance minister called on the market to calm down, stating that the government's budget dependence on debt was decreasing and planning to invest over $330 billion in AI and chips [1] - **Industry News**: During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, State Grid Corporation's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile owned by Capstone Copper condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike. In December 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2,704,298.42 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.05% and a year - on - year increase of 7.32%. Refined copper imports were 298,027.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.00% [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in LME copper spot prices and the dramatic widening of premiums for forward contracts indicate extreme tightness in the physical copper market, with the Tom/next spread reaching a record high since the 2021 supply crisis [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - The copper contract expiring this Wednesday saw a premium of up to $100 per ton over the next day contract, a rare occurrence since 1998, adding volatility to an already heated LME copper market [2]. - Earlier this month, copper prices exceeded $13,400 per ton, marking a historical high [2]. - The Tom/next spread's spike provides traders with a final opportunity to adjust positions before the expiration of the January contract, with three entities holding over 30% of the open long positions [2]. Group 2: Structural Supply Constraints - The extreme levels of the Tom/next spread are partly due to LME rules that limit the borrowing rates for investors holding large long positions [3]. - Analysts suggest that the overall price curve for copper indicates broader structural supply constraints, with expectations of a significant market deficit by 2028, potentially depleting global inventories and driving prices higher [3]. Group 3: Inventory Imbalances - Global copper inventories are currently adequate, but most are concentrated in U.S. warehouses, driven by traders moving record amounts of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs [4]. - The recent surge in LME spot prices has shifted U.S. futures trading to a discount, with some copper being moved to previously vacant LME warehouses in New Orleans [4]. - LME copper inventories increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, influenced by inflows from Asian warehouses and the New Orleans facility [4].

Group 1 - The spot copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to a significant premium over future contracts, reaching the highest level since the historic supply tightness in 2021, with a premium of $100 per ton for contracts expiring Wednesday compared to those expiring the next day [2][3] - The recent spike in the backwardation phenomenon indicates rising spot demand, driven by production stoppages and increased copper exports to the U.S., leading to tight supply in other regions [3] - Analysts and traders expect severe structural supply constraints in the copper market, with most monthly price differentials showing backwardation until the end of 2028, potentially depleting global inventories and driving prices higher [4] Group 2 - As of last Friday, three different institutions held at least 30% of the long positions in the January contracts, which could yield over 130,000 tons of copper if held to expiration, exceeding the current spot supply in LME warehouses [3] - The increase in LME copper inventory by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons was attributed to inflows from Asian warehouses and a small inflow to the New Orleans warehouse, despite the price differential volatility having minimal impact on the three-month benchmark contract [4] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [5]

Group 1 - The LME copper spot price has significantly risen compared to future contract prices, indicating that traders may be extracting large amounts of inventory from the exchange's warehouses [1] - The premium for the copper contract expiring on Wednesday was $64 higher than the next day's contract, a market condition known as backwardation, suggesting an increase in immediate demand [1] - This price movement is among the highest levels recorded since 1998, reflecting increased volatility in the LME copper market [1] Group 2 - As of Thursday, three independent institutions held at least 30% of the open interest in the January contracts, which could allow them to withdraw over 160,000 tons of copper, exceeding the available inventory in the LME network [4] - The surge in the Tom/next spread indicates that short position holders may face significant losses if they do not roll over their contracts [4] Group 3 - The current market conditions signal a more severe structural supply constraint in the global copper industry, with many analysts predicting a deep shortage by the end of 2028 [5] - Although global copper inventories are currently sufficient, they are heavily concentrated in U.S. warehouses, leading to record shipments to the U.S. due to anticipated tariff changes [5] Group 4 - The recent increase in LME copper inventory, with an addition of 8,875 tons, brings the total to 156,300 tons, driven by inflows into New Orleans and Baltimore warehouses [8] - The fluctuations in the price spread have had minimal impact on the three-month copper contract, which experienced a maximum daily drop of 1.4% due to broader market sell-offs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper market is experiencing significant volatility, with spot prices surging above futures prices, indicating large-scale inventory withdrawals and a conflict between substantial long positions held by three entities and severely insufficient deliverable inventory [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Tom/next spread, a key indicator of immediate demand in the LME storage network, has seen a dramatic increase, with the spread rising by $64, marking one of the largest daily increases since 1998 [1]. - As of last Thursday, three independent entities held long positions that accounted for at least 30% of the open interest in the January contract, which translates to over 160,000 tons of copper, exceeding the total deliverable inventory in the LME storage network [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The current situation reflects a "physical squeeze" where short sellers are compelled to either find physical copper for delivery or incur high costs to roll over their positions [2]. - The long-term outlook for the copper market indicates structural supply tightness extending to 2028, with most monthly spreads showing backwardation, suggesting expectations of future supply shortages [3]. Group 3: Geographic Inventory Imbalance - Although global copper inventories are currently at sufficient levels, there is a significant regional imbalance, with a large concentration of inventory in U.S. warehouses due to previous tariff policies [6]. - Recent increases in LME copper inventory, including a rise of 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, were primarily driven by deliveries from Asian warehouses and small inflows into New Orleans [6].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of investment copper bars is gaining attention as copper prices reach new highs, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like artificial intelligence and renewable energy [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Copper Bars - Investment copper bars with a purity of 999.9 are being introduced, primarily in 1000g specifications, priced between 180 to 280 yuan [1]. - The popularity of investment copper bars is evident on social media and e-commerce platforms, with products like "wealth copper bars" priced at 149.88 yuan for 1000g [3]. Group 2: Copper Price Trends - Copper prices are projected to rise significantly, with forecasts indicating a potential increase to 13,000 USD/ton in early 2026, driven by strong demand in energy transition and AI sectors [8]. - The price of copper is expected to experience a 34.34% increase in 2025, with the year-end price projected at 99,180 yuan/ton [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current surge in copper prices is attributed to tight global supply, trade flow restructuring due to U.S. tariffs, and increased demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [4]. - Analysts predict a refined copper shortage of approximately 330,000 tons in 2026, with significant price implications [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Most investment banks maintain a bullish outlook on copper prices, with some predicting a peak of 15,000 USD/ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. - However, some analysts, like Goldman Sachs, caution that the rapid price increase may suppress market demand, forecasting a potential decline to 11,200 USD/ton by the fourth quarter of 2026 [9].

Market Overview - On January 19, the Hong Kong stock market showed weakness, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,564, down 1.05% for the day and 3.64% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.24% to 5,750, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.94% to 9,134, with a year-to-date increase of 2.48%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.29% to 4,114, maintaining a year-to-date increase of 3.66%[3] Sector Performance - AI healthcare stocks faced significant declines, with Baidu's AI medical stock dropping over 8% and other related stocks like iFlytek falling more than 5%[9] - Energy and power sectors saw gains, with China Eastern Airlines rising over 9% and China Southern Airlines increasing by over 6%[9] - Heavy machinery stocks also performed well, with SANY International rising over 8% and First Tractor Company increasing by over 4%[9] Commodity Insights - Copper prices are expected to remain high, leading to a decline in copper stocks, with Jinxin Resources down 6.81% and Jiangxi Copper falling over 3%[9] - Lithium stocks continued to decline, with Ganfeng Lithium down over 4% and Hongqiao Group falling by 3%[9] - The price of lithium carbonate futures dropped over 3% to 148,000 yuan/ton, influenced by market sentiment and regulatory pressures[9] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical tensions surrounding tariffs and trade with the U.S. have negatively impacted market sentiment, particularly in the Hong Kong market[9] - Trump's threats of tariffs on Europe have led to increased risk aversion, pushing gold and silver prices to historical highs[9]

Core Insights - The introduction of investment copper bars in Shenzhen marks a significant shift in the perception of copper, moving away from its previous status as "scrap metal" to a recognized investment asset [1][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Investment copper bars, with a purity of 999.9 and weights of 500g and 1000g, are being offered at prices ranging from 180 to 280 yuan for 1000g [1] - The price of copper is projected to rise significantly, with forecasts indicating a 34.34% increase in 2025, from 73,830 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 99,180 yuan/ton by year-end [3][4] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historical high of $13,407 per ton in January 2026, with domestic futures also exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to a combination of tight global copper supply, trade flow restructuring due to U.S. tariff expectations, and increased demand from artificial intelligence and new energy infrastructure [4][5] - Analysts indicate that the supply side is constrained by a 10% reduction in copper production capacity and significant withdrawals from LME copper inventories, raising concerns about future shortages [5][6] - The demand for copper is being driven by the energy transition and the growing electricity needs from AI and other sectors, contributing to increased consumption [5] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Most investment banks maintain a bullish outlook on copper prices, with Citigroup predicting prices could exceed $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and potentially reach $15,000 per ton by the second quarter [7] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a refined copper shortage of approximately 330,000 tons in 2026, with average prices around $12,075 per ton [7] - However, some analysts, like Goldman Sachs, caution that the rapid price increase may suppress market demand, predicting a potential decline to $11,200 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2026 [8]