Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Macau gaming industry shows strong GGR growth in 11M25, with the full - year 2025 GGR expected to exceed the government's budget. The 2026 government target seems conservative. MPELs, STCITYs are top picks, and WYNMAC'27 and '29 are yield - pick - up plays, while neutral on MGMCHIs, SANLTDs, and SJMHOLs [7][9][12] - In the fixed - income market, various bonds have different price and spread movements, influenced by factors such as company performance, market flows, and macroeconomic conditions [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, there were active flows among AMs/PBs on JP financials and corps, but spreads were generally unchanged. Asian AMs and prop desks bought Yankee AT1s. Korean IGs tightened, while Chinese TMTs/POEs widened. NWDEVL complex mostly rose, CWAHK decreased, EHICAR was stable to up, FAEACO recovered, Macau gaming bonds had small price changes, and Chinese property bonds had mixed performance. In SE Asia, BBLTB senior tightened, and SMCGL Perps had small price movements [2] - This morning, new AGRBK 28, ANZ 28s/30s FRN, and HYUELEs tightened, while China TMTs/HAOHUA/PINGIN widened. JP insurance hybrids and AT1s were lower. SMCGL Perps were unchanged [3] Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top performers include CHIOLI, NWDEVL, FAEACO, etc., with significant price increases. Top underperformers include CFAMCI, LNGFOR, TENCNT, etc., with price decreases [5] Macro News Recap - On Monday, S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq were lower. US Nov'25 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, while ISM Manufacturing PMI/Prices were lower. UST yield was higher, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.54%/3.67%/4.09%/4.74% [6] Desk Analyst Comments - Macau Gaming - Cumulative GGR growth accelerated in 11M25. In Nov'25, GGR increased 14.4% yoy to MOP21.1bn. The 11M25 GGR reached MOP226.5bn, 84.0% of the 2019 level, and yoy growth widened to 8.6%. Full - year 2025 GGR is expected to reach cMOP245bn, exceeding the government budget. The 2026 government target of MOP236bn seems conservative [7][9][10] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issues include Agricultural Bank of China Limited Tokyo Branch (300mn USD, 3 - year, SOFR + 42) and ANZ (750mn USD 3 - year/500mn USD 5 - year, SOFR + 59/SOFR + 68) [15] - There is no new issue pipeline today [16] News and Market Color - 64 credit bonds were issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB63bn. Media reported China asked real - estate data providers to withhold Nov'25 home - sales data. Asahi Mutual Life acquired MVI Life for cUSD170mn, and Fosun International issued a 2 - year JPY4.2bn bond at 3% [17] Company - Specific News - Fitch downgraded Greenko Energy to BB - from BB. Kaisa started consent solicitation on six USD bonds. NWD accepted tenders for multiple bonds. Petron Malaysia will halt operations due to a storm. S&P revised Vedanta Resources' outlook to positive. China Vanke seeks grace to repay a bond. West China Cement accepted a tender offer. ENN Energy extended the privatization document dispatch [22]

Group 1 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is a key factor driving global capital market trends [1] - After the October meeting, the Fed Chair Powell's hawkish comments led to a significant decline in rate cut expectations, causing adjustments in global capital markets [1] - The comments from New York Fed President Williams on November 21, suggesting further rate cut space, quickly raised market expectations for a December cut, leading to a recovery in global capital markets [1] Group 2 - On the trading day mentioned, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets experienced a rebound with increased trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing near its daily high [1] - The trading volume for the day was approximately 1.8 trillion yuan, showing a notable increase compared to the previous Friday [1] - Market hotspots were primarily concentrated in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and non-ferrous metals sectors, with large-cap blue-chip stocks and technology stocks performing strongly [1] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index is in a process of recovery after a rapid adjustment in late November, having found support above the low point from early October [1] - The index has not yet filled the previous gap created during the market's rapid adjustment, indicating that the recovery process is still ongoing [1]

x 大大基金 链接您与财富 20年数据透视 这些板块或成12月主线机遇 复盘2005年至2024年12月份申万一级行业表现,从上涨概率来看,家 用电器、银行、食品饮料、社会服务、通信、石油石化、商贸零售7个 板块在12月实现上涨的概率均超过60%。从涨幅均值看,非银金融以 5.85%的平均涨幅居首,银行、食品饮料、家用电器等行业紧随其后。 | | 指数名称 | 涨幅均值 | 上涨概率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 家用电器 | 4.30% | 80% | | 2 | 銀行 | 5.08% | ୧5% | | 3 | 食品饮料 | 4.86% | ୧୧% | | 4 | 社会服务 | 4.27% | ୧୮% | | 5 | 道信 | 3.77% | ୧୮% | | 6 | 石油石化 | 2.56% | ୧୮% | | 7 | 商贸零售 | 2.26% | ୧୮% | | 8 | 美容护理 | 2.81% | 60% | | 9 | 农林牧渔 | 2.44% | 60% | | 10 | 煤炭 | 2.01% | 60% | | 11 | 有色金属 | 1.66% | 60% | ...

Market Overview - In November 2025, major indices experienced a decline after reaching a ten-year high earlier in the month, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index dropping by 4.23% [5][10] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic despite short-term fluctuations, supported by improving fundamentals and policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand [5][37] Economic Environment Analysis - The global economy is expected to remain stable, with the IMF projecting a slight decline in global growth rates from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 [17] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to continue its interest rate cuts in December, which could positively influence market conditions [18][34] - Domestic economic indicators show a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [21] Policy Measures - Recent policies are focused on enhancing consumer spending and ensuring a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with specific measures to stimulate demand across various sectors [25][27] - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for further interest rate cuts and adjustments to enhance market adaptability [28][33] Sector Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight allocation in sectors such as basic chemicals, TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and machinery [38][39] - In the basic chemicals sector, there is a focus on new materials and fine chemicals, driven by national policies aimed at upgrading key industries [39] - The TMT sector is expected to benefit from rapid growth in AI infrastructure and innovations in consumer electronics, particularly with companies like Apple leading the charge [41][42] Industry Insights - The electric power equipment sector is undergoing a transformation, with a shift from price competition to value-driven strategies, particularly in the solar energy segment [47] - The machinery sector is seeing robust demand driven by major infrastructure projects and technological advancements, with a notable increase in exports [49] - The semiconductor industry is poised for growth, particularly in AI-related applications, as domestic companies ramp up production capabilities in response to global demand [46]

首先，美联储降息预期和AI发展争议主导市场风险偏好的走向。 美联储12月是否降息的预期反复多变。上周以来，在美联储官员的鸽派言论下，降 息预期再次大幅回升，这主导了上周以来全球股市的反弹，A股也顺利实现了超跌反弹。此外，人工智能行业是否存在泡沫的讨论仍未结束，但谷歌大模 型的明显进展为这个行业又重新注入了强心剂，全球AI 行业的核心资产出现明显修复。总体来看，经过前周的急跌之后，市场主要基本面驱动因素有所 改善，这将有利于市场继续反弹修复。 上周市场超跌反弹，量能有所减少。 沪指周初触及低点后，一路向上逐步收复失地，周四周五连续两天站上5天均线，不过目前仍在60天均线下方。 深圳成指上周反弹力度更大，周三便回补了前周的跳空缺口，周四触及60天均线后略有回落。量能方面，上周两市日均量能约17000亿元左右，较前周有 所下降。上周市场热点主要集中在TMT行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技股领涨。 风险提示 ：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 从运行节奏看，沪指快速调整后，尝试向上反弹。 沪指前周出现快速调整，上周一在10月上旬的低点上方获得支撑后 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull trend supported by policy shifts and improved liquidity, despite potential short-term volatility [1] - The market's risk appetite is being positively influenced by factors such as breakthroughs in the technology sector and changes in the US-China geopolitical landscape [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is anticipated to provide external support for the A-share market's slow bull trend [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is showing signs of initial stabilization after adjustments caused by multiple internal and external factors, with a long-term upward trend remaining intact [2] - Improvements in dollar liquidity are expected, particularly with the Federal Reserve's dovish signals and the anticipated pause in quantitative tightening starting December 1, 2025 [2] - Institutional investors are expected to begin repositioning for 2026, with a potential increase in buying activity as market pressures ease [2] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced significant volatility and a slight decline in November, influenced by external risk appetite and sectoral differentiation [3] - The banking sector continues to lead, but there are indications that this trend may be nearing its end, while undervalued consumer sectors are showing stronger performance [3] - The market is likely to remain in a high-level oscillation without significant events to drive risk appetite upward, suggesting a focus on patience and strategic positioning for future opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery trend, with major indices mostly rising, driven by a shift in capital from high-valuation growth stocks to undervalued cyclical stocks and dividend assets, indicating an increasing attractiveness of defensive sectors [1][2] Group 1: Market Recovery Factors - The recent rebound in the A-share market is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, alleviation of concerns regarding the overseas AI bubble, and proactive domestic policies [2] - The strengthening of the RMB against the USD, which recently surpassed the 7.08 mark, is seen as a positive factor for the recovery of Chinese assets, enhancing the relative attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for foreign investors [2] Group 2: December Market Outlook - Institutions believe that the A-share market is well-positioned for a cross-year rally in December, supported by the gradual easing of previous market disturbances and an anticipated increase in risk appetite [3] - The upcoming month is expected to be a critical observation window for domestic and international policies, with potential benefits for sectors like consumption and real estate [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Historical data suggests that December to January is an optimal period for investors to position themselves for the cross-year rally, particularly in sectors where earnings forecasts are likely to meet or exceed expectations [4] - The technology growth sector is still viewed as a long-term mainstay, with expectations for a recovery in its upward trend as valuation adjustments are completed [5] Group 4: Sector Focus - The focus for the upcoming year-end market includes sectors such as robotics and brokerage firms, with consumer and real estate sectors also presenting potential short-term trading opportunities [6] - Defensive sectors, particularly high-dividend and consumer stocks, are recommended for short-term investment during the current market volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery trend, with expectations for a favorable cross-year market in December as various disruptive factors gradually ease [2][3][5]. Market Overview - The A-share market showed a recovery last week, with major indices mostly rising, particularly in the TMT sector, which rebounded from previous declines [2]. - The overall market in November exhibited a rotation from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets, indicating increased attractiveness of defensive sectors [2]. Factors Influencing Market Recovery - Multiple favorable factors are driving the recent market upturn, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, alleviation of concerns regarding the overseas AI bubble, and proactive domestic policies [3]. - The easing of overseas disruptive factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's statements and economic data, has contributed to a global risk asset recovery [3]. - The recent strengthening of the RMB, which has surpassed the 7.08 mark, is seen as a positive factor for the recovery of Chinese assets [3][4]. December Market Outlook - Institutions believe that the A-share market is well-positioned for a cross-year rally in December, supported by a gradual increase in market risk appetite [5]. - The market is expected to benefit from significant domestic and international policy observations, with a favorable macroeconomic outlook for 2026 [5]. - Historical trends suggest that December to January is a favorable period for investors to position themselves for the cross-year market, particularly in sectors with positive earnings forecasts [6]. Sector Focus - The technology growth sector is viewed as a long-term mainstay, with recent adjustments seen as a necessary correction of previous high valuations [7]. - Specific sectors such as robotics and brokerage firms are anticipated to be key players in the market leading up to the 2026 Spring Festival [7]. - Defensive sectors, particularly high-dividend and consumer stocks, are recommended for short-term investment during the current market volatility [7].

Group 1 - The overseas markets experienced a rebound during the week of November 24-28, 2025, with major indices in the US rising over 3%, led by the Nasdaq 100 which increased by 4.93% [2][7] - In the Eurozone, Germany showed strong performance, while Asian markets also saw moderate gains, with the Hang Seng Tech and Nikkei 225 both rising over 3% [2][7] - The valuation expansion was noted across major US indices, with PE ratios increasing by more than 1x, and the Nasdaq, Nikkei 225, Korean Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech seeing PE expansions exceeding 2x [2][7] Group 2 - A-shares saw a broad-based rebound during the same week, with the National Index 2000 rising by 4.50% and the CSI 1000 by 3.77%, indicating strong performance in smaller-cap stocks [2][27] - The overall valuation of A-shares experienced mild expansion, with only the large-cap value index showing a slight decline of 0.21% [2][27] - The PE ratio of the CSI 2000 significantly recovered, expanding by 7.27x, while small-cap growth stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks [2][27] Group 3 - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector showed significant rebounds, with electronics rising by 6.05% and communications by 8.7%, indicating strong investor interest [2][50] - The valuation of the TMT sector expanded notably, with electronics, communications, and computers showing PE expansions of 3.6x, 3.58x, and 2.56x respectively [2][50] - The downstream consumer sectors, particularly social services, beauty care, and food and beverage, exhibited favorable valuation metrics, with their valuation percentiles remaining below 53% [2][50] Group 4 - Emerging industries saw a comprehensive increase, with optical communication performing exceptionally well, and sectors like IDC, quantum communication, and 5G leading the gains [2][50] - The semiconductor industry also showed significant PE expansions, with IDC and integrated circuits leading the way [2][50] - Popular concepts in the market included optical modules, optical chips, and communication devices, reflecting strong growth potential in these areas [2][50]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 估值周观察(11月第5期) 科技主导"反弹周" 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）海外市场普遍反弹，估值随股价修复。美股领涨，主要指数均上涨3%以上，其中纳斯达克100涨幅 最显著（+4.93%）。欧元区中，德国表现突出；亚洲市场整体温和上涨，恒生科技和日经225涨幅超3%，估值随股价修复。除道琼斯 工业指数，美股主要指数PE扩张均超过1x；纳斯达克、日经225、韩国综合指数、恒生科技PE扩张幅度超过2x。从估值分位数看，标 普500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和恒生科技指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.11.24-2025.11.28)，A ...