经历关税的恐慌性暴跌后，美股正面临技术性反弹与长期基本面压力的博弈。即便一些技术指标显示超跌，但三个核 心因素仍压制美股反转的可能性： 第一，关税政策冲击企业盈利。特朗普关税冲击不断加剧美国经济衰退概率，美股盈利预期或进一步下修。Mag7 中依 赖海外市场的科技公司（如苹果、特斯拉、英伟达）利润率承压，亚马逊受北美消费景气度拖累，谷歌和 Meta 则面 临广告需求萎缩风险，仅微软相对稳健。Mag7 若因衰退缩减资本支出，也可能延缓 AI 商业化进程。 第二，估值与资金面风险未充分释放。Mag7 主导了近年美股牛市，当前市盈率已回落至近三年低位。然而，标普 500 风险溢价（ERP）仍显示市场对衰退的定价不足，乐观情绪尚未完全消退。此外，特朗普对外政策正恶化美元信用，或 导致海外美元资产配置需求长期下行。 第三，特朗普与美联储的政策导向均加剧市场不确定性。特朗普有意通过短期衰退换取长期经济结构优化，默许股市 调整以缓解财富分化矛盾，美联储则在关税风险不确定下不急于行动。 综合来看，美股短期反弹以情绪驱动为主，但在关税冲击盈利、高估值消化压力及政策滞后效应下，中期或仍具备调 整可能。 风险提示 1）特朗普对外政策 ...

Economic Overview - In 2023, China's low-altitude economy market size reached CNY 505.95 billion, with a growth rate of 33.8%[16] - The market size is expected to reach CNY 1.5 trillion by 2025 and CNY 3.5 trillion by 2035[16] Industry Development - The low-altitude economy's commercialization path is divided into three phases: strategic preparation (2025-2027), market expansion (2027-2030), and ecological maturity (2030-2035)[12][13] - China has nearly 700 drone manufacturers, leading globally in both consumer and industrial drone markets, holding over 70% and 50% market shares respectively[8] Stock Market Performance - The median price change for technology growth stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange was -3.48% from April 21 to April 25, 2025, with 14% of companies showing an increase[21] - Notable stock performers included Can Energy (+24.82%), Wanda Bearings (+21.38%), and Yi Neng Power (+8.23%)[21] Valuation Metrics - The median TTM P/E ratio for the information technology sector decreased from 38.5X to 38.0X, while the electronic equipment sector's P/E ratio fell from 56.6X to 51.1X[26][39] - The total market value of the electronic equipment sector decreased from CNY 134.06 billion to CNY 129.44 billion[28] Company Highlights - Weimiao Electronics has secured a project for the Xiaopeng Huaitian flying car control console wiring harness[17] - Parallel Technology serves as a cloud client for Xiaopeng Huaitian, a key player in the low-altitude economy[17]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a "golden pit" phase, indicating a potential recovery after a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently breaking through 3300 points, suggesting that the market is close to exiting this phase [1][32][36] - The report highlights that the recent political bureau meeting indicated a commitment to proactive macro policies to stimulate consumption and counter external shocks, reflecting confidence in the economic outlook [1][2][32] - The report notes that the EPMI index for April dropped to 49.4%, marking a significant decline of 10.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating potential negative impacts from tariff adjustments on the domestic economy [2][6][12] Group 2 - The report identifies a rotation in market performance, where sectors further from the "exit" point, such as technology and small-cap stocks, are experiencing larger gains compared to those closer to recovery [1][32][40] - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" focusing on high-dividend stocks and technology, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is viewed as a key growth area [2][60][66] - The report indicates that the technology sector's trading volume has decreased, currently accounting for 31.57% of total trading, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [61][62] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of U.S.-China tariff negotiations, noting that recent comments from U.S. officials suggest a potential easing of tensions, which could positively influence market sentiment [56][57][58] - The report highlights that the banking sector has shown strong performance, attributed to significant inflows into passive index funds, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards stability [26][32][46] - The report mentions that the overall market is experiencing a phase of stabilization, with a notable correlation between trading volume and the performance of dividend assets, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook [12][23][24]

Core Viewpoint - In the first quarter of this year, there was a significant differentiation in the scale of various fund products, with many mini funds in the actively managed equity category experiencing substantial growth, particularly those focusing on technology and consumer themes [1][3]. Fund Performance - A total of 117 actively managed equity products saw their scale multiply, with 34 funds successfully escaping the "mini" status, achieving scale increases of over 160 times [1][3]. - Over 70% of the mini funds that reversed their scale had a positive unit net value growth rate in the first quarter [1]. Notable Mini Funds - The "Qianhai Kaiyuan Jiaxin A" fund saw its scale grow from 0.36 billion to 25.16 billion, an increase of 162.9 times, with a unit net value growth rate of 48.84% [2][3]. - The "Ping An Advanced Manufacturing Theme A" fund increased its scale from 0.48 billion to 13.21 billion, nearly a 20-fold increase, with a unit net value growth rate of 53.65% [4][5]. - The "Huaxia Consumption Zhenxuan A" fund grew from 0.34 billion to 2.47 billion, over a 4-fold increase, with a unit net value growth rate of 8.45% [6][8]. Investment Strategies - The "Qianhai Kaiyuan Jiaxin A" fund focused on growth sectors such as automotive, machinery, and power equipment, significantly increasing its holdings in stocks like "Landai Technology" and "Shuanglin Shares" [3][4]. - The "Ping An Advanced Manufacturing Theme A" fund concentrated on humanoid robots and made strategic adjustments within the robotics sector, focusing on companies with relatively low valuations [5][6]. - The "Huaxia Consumption Zhenxuan A" fund tilted its holdings towards "technology + consumption" themes, maintaining a high position to capture recovery elasticity [8]. Market Context - The equity market showed a clear recovery in the first quarter, driven by continuous policy support to boost consumption, particularly in the technology sector surrounding AI and robotics [9]. - Mini funds are noted for their ability to leverage their smaller size and operational flexibility to quickly adjust portfolios and capture investment opportunities, leading to excess returns [9].

从资金净流入方面来看，科创综指ETF华夏近9天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得13.61亿元净流入，合计"吸金"17.48亿元。 科创综指ETF华夏(589000)，场外联接(华夏上证科创板综合ETF联接A：023719；华夏上证科创板综合ETF联接C：023720)。 以上内容与数据，与界面有连云频道立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 华泰证券指出，当前全球经济处于传统信息技术时代的黄昏，人工智能有望成为引领第四轮科技革命的重要力量。ChatGPT、Deepseek等模型相继问世，推 动AI全产业链进入加速发展阶段。短期来看，AI主要通过资本开支、提振信心与畅通循环等途径影响经济，长期来看，人工智能的发展将会对潜在经济增 速、通胀与国际格局等产生深远影响。此外，人工智能发展对就业的影响关注度较高。从市场层面来看，产业周期叠加政策支持，后续泛科技仍是投资主 线，关注算力投资、国产替代与算法突破等带来的机会。 科创综指ETF华夏紧密跟踪上证科创板综合指数，聚焦硬科技领域，重点布局新一代信息技术、高端装备、生物医药、新能源、新材料及节能环保等战略性 新兴产业。 规模方面，科创综指ETF华夏最新规模达2 ...

Group 1 - The 27th Beijing International Science and Technology Industry Expo (Beijing Sci-Tech Expo) will be held from May 8 to 11, 2025, at the National Convention Center, alongside the 2025 Beijing International Investment and Trade Fair [1][2] - The theme of the Beijing Sci-Tech Expo is "Technology Leading to a Shared Future," focusing on cutting-edge technology, emerging industries, and future industries, showcasing the achievements of Beijing's international science and technology innovation center [1] - The event will highlight five key aspects, including new achievements in future industry development, new results in international innovation center construction, advantages of Beijing's trillion-level industrial clusters, a new model of "exhibition and conference integration," and technology empowering new lifestyles [1] Group 2 - The 2025 Beijing International Investment and Trade Fair will emphasize "joint consultation, sharing, and win-win," facilitating on-site inspections of Beijing's technological strength for participating merchants and providing investment negotiation opportunities for exhibitors [2] - The activities will cover strategic emerging industries such as new generation information technology, healthcare, intelligent manufacturing, and financial technology, with a special focus on a China-Saudi manufacturing session to deepen international industrial chain collaboration [2]

4月21日，银华基金李晓星旗下产品悉数披露一季报。以其代表作基金——银华心怡为例，美的集团、比亚迪A股、中国移动、小米集团、美团在 一季度新进银华心怡持仓前十。其中，美的获大幅加仓，成为头号重仓股；小米则为该基金自成立以来首次被买入的个股。 另一方面，阿里巴巴、中芯国际遭李晓星小幅度减持；比亚迪港股、五粮液、中通快递、香港交易所、快手则退出银华心怡的持仓前十。 蒋立冬 派生万物AI 图 在经历了连续10个季度的净赎回之后，银华基金明星基金经理李晓星旗下代表作基金——银华心怡在2025年一季度重获净申购。 "随着一系列政策逐渐发挥作用，经济预期逐渐好转，市场的信心也在进一步回升。"李晓星在一季报中表示，看好全年的权益市场，维持了超过 九成的权益仓位，看好港股科技、港股消费、港股红利、A股消费、A股制造业，对于一些涨幅过大的板块从相对收益的角度来说持谨慎的态度。 他相对更为看好港股市场，以及A股现金流好且估值低位的消费股。 美的成头号重仓股 李晓星在管基金目前有10只，分别为银华中小盘精选、银华盛世精选、银华心诚、银华心怡、银华大盘精选两年定开、银华丰享一年持有、银华 心佳两年持有期、银华心享一年持有、银华心兴三 ...

Core Points - The China-Hong Kong-US Technology Index has shown a decline of 14.62% over the past month, 3.85% over the past three months, and 3.32% year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of high liquidity and high market capitalization technology companies listed in Hong Kong and the US, calculated using an equal-weighted method [1] - The index's top ten holdings include companies such as SMIC (3.61%), BYD (3.23%), and Alibaba (2.55%) [1] Market Composition - The Nasdaq Global Select Market accounts for 40.10% of the index, followed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at 36.04% and the New York Stock Exchange at 22.41% [2] - The industry breakdown of the index shows that Information Technology comprises 38.88%, Consumer Discretionary 20.37%, and Healthcare 14.75% [2] Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - New technology companies that rank in the top five by market capitalization in their respective regions will be quickly included in the index after their eleventh trading day [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited significant structural differentiation from April 14 to April 18, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, while the Shenzhen Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.54% and 0.64%, respectively [1] - The market sentiment was influenced by a shift in investment style, with funds moving from high-volatility technology sectors to traditional industries with stable cash flows. Blue-chip and high-dividend strategies performed well, while growth sectors continued to decline [1] Industry Performance - Concerns over supply chain disruptions led to a slowdown in economic recovery, affecting sectors such as industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and information technology, with the latter experiencing the largest decline, though not exceeding 0.8% [1] - Real estate, telecommunications services, and utilities showed relatively strong performance, with real estate rising by 3.47% [1] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 25 funds were issued last week, including 17 equity funds, 7 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 20.476 billion units [2][18] - The total index for Chinese funds increased by 0.02%, while the ordinary equity fund index decreased by 0.08%, and the mixed equity fund index fell by 0.04% [2] Global Asset Review - Global asset prices showed mixed performance, with U.S. indices under pressure, while European markets strengthened. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices fell by over 2%, while major Asian indices rose by over 2% [4] - In commodities, the energy sector led gains, while industrial metals showed mixed results. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to increased risk aversion, reaching over $3,300 per ounce [4] Domestic Bond Market - The bond market remained stable, with the 10-year government bond futures rising by 0.04% and the 30-year futures increasing by 0.03%. Domestic long-term interest rates remained at historical lows [16]

Group 1 - The core index of the China Securities Hong Kong Technology Index reflects the overall performance of leading technology companies listed in Hong Kong, selected based on market capitalization, R&D investment, and revenue growth [1][2] - The China Securities Hong Kong Technology Index has seen a decline of 15.90% over the past month, an increase of 13.74% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 13.70% [1] - The top ten holdings of the index include Xiaomi Group-W (12.3%), Alibaba-W (11.35%), Tencent Holdings (9.92%), BYD Company (8.16%), Meituan-W (7.21%), JD Group-SW (6.39%), NetEase-S (5.66%), Baidu Group-SW (4.24%), SMIC (4.0%), and BeiGene (3.22%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the index shows that consumer discretionary accounts for 41.51%, communication services for 23.64%, information technology for 22.87%, healthcare for 11.57%, and industrials for 0.41% [2] - The sample of the China Securities Hong Kong Technology Index is adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Public funds tracking the Hong Kong technology sector include the Southern China Securities Hong Kong Technology ETF and the China Merchants China Securities Hong Kong Technology ETF [3]