研究报告 Research Report 3 Aug 2025 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 China (Overseas) Discretionary & Staples 餐饮、潮玩及家电行业周报 F&B, Designer Toys and Home Appliances Sector Weekly Report [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) [Table_header1] 中国可选消费 & 必需消费 | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Core Insights - The 2025 PTS Beijing International Trend Toy Exhibition, hosted by Pop Mart, took place from August 1 to August 3, with the theme "Return of Playfulness, Seeking the Wilderness of the Heart" [1] - Pop Mart's founder and CEO, Wang Ning, made a surprise appearance at the exhibition, engaging with fans and showcasing a friendly demeanor [1] Group 1 - The exhibition was held at the National Convention Center, emphasizing the growing trend in the toy industry [1] - Wang Ning was seen wearing a simple white T-shirt and jeans, indicating a casual and approachable image [1] - The CEO actively interacted with fans, demonstrating the company's commitment to customer engagement and community building [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing strong performance in its new IP product line, with popular products frequently sold out due to supply constraints rather than weak demand. The global IP market presents significant growth opportunities, with the company expected to achieve substantial revenue growth by 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product Performance - The new IP product line, including Crybaby and Twinkle Twinkle, is performing well, indicating a supply bottleneck rather than a lack of demand [6][8]. - Popular products such as Twinkle Twinkle's "Bee Your Honey" figurine (priced at 199 RMB) and various Crybaby products (priced between 79-199 RMB) are experiencing stock shortages [7]. Group 2: Global Expansion and Brand Collaborations - The company is actively expanding its global presence and engaging in cross-brand collaborations, such as partnerships with Godiva and Chopard [9]. - New stores have opened in key cities like Berlin and Melbourne, indicating strong consumer interest in the company's IP and products [9]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 31.046 billion RMB in 2025, representing a 138% year-on-year growth, and 42.994 billion RMB in 2026, with a 38% growth [10]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 9.821 billion RMB in 2025, a 205% increase, and 13.965 billion RMB in 2026, a 42% increase [11]. Group 4: Market Potential - The global IP market is estimated to be worth approximately 800 billion USD, with the company's market share currently at only 2.3%, indicating substantial growth potential [14]. - The company aims to evolve into a combination of Bandai Namco, LEGO, and Disney, suggesting that its growth story is still in the early stages [14]. Group 5: Valuation and Investment Opportunity - The current stock price of 246 HKD offers over 48% upside potential to the target price of 365 HKD, based on a projected P/E ratio of 46 times for 2025 [16][19]. - The company’s strong IP product flywheel effect and efficient direct sales model are seen as key to successful global expansion [16].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that the recent stock price pullback of Pop Mart presents a valuable buying opportunity, emphasizing the company's strong performance in new IP product lines and its significant growth potential in the global IP market [1][11]. Group 1: Product Performance - Despite investor concerns about a slowdown after the Labubu craze, Pop Mart continues to launch popular new products, indicating strong demand rather than supply issues [3]. - New IPs like Crybaby and Twinkle Twinkle are performing well, alongside traditional favorites such as Molly and Skullpanda, with many products frequently sold out [3]. - The supply-demand imbalance reflects the attractiveness of the company's products, not a lack of demand [3]. Group 2: Brand Collaborations and Global Expansion - Recent innovative collaborations include partnerships with renowned brands like Godiva and Chopard, as well as the opening of new stores in key cities like Berlin and Melbourne [4]. - These initiatives demonstrate the global appeal of Pop Mart's IP and products, positioning the company to capture consumer demand across various markets [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - Morgan Stanley forecasts Pop Mart's revenue to reach RMB 31.046 billion in 2025, a 138% increase year-on-year, and RMB 42.994 billion in 2026, a 38% increase [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 66.8% in 2024 to 71.5% in 2025, with operating profit margin rising from 31.5% to 42.0% in the same period [6]. - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 31x, dropping to 22x in 2026, highlighting Pop Mart's valuation advantage compared to other high-growth stocks [7]. Group 4: Market Potential - The global IP product market is estimated to be around USD 800 billion, with Pop Mart's current market share at only 2.3%, indicating substantial growth potential [9]. - Pop Mart aims to evolve into a combination of Bandai Namco, LEGO, and Disney, suggesting that its growth story is still in the early stages [10]. Group 5: Investment Recommendation - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 365, indicating over 48% upside potential from the current stock price of HKD 246 [1][14]. - The firm has outlined three scenarios for target prices based on different market conditions, reinforcing the investment opportunity presented by the current pullback [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the rise of celebrity IPs, particularly focusing on the phenomenon of "Bubu," a plush toy created by Mayday's lead singer, Ashin, which has become a significant part of fan culture and expanded Mayday's commercial ecosystem [3][5][14] - Many celebrities have developed their own IPs, such as Zhou Shen's "Zhou Keke" and "Zhou Biao Biao," indicating a trend where fan engagement leads to the creation of meaningful IPs [5][11] - The evolution of celebrity IPs has shifted from virtual character creation to more conceptual symbols that can be physically manifested, allowing for greater commercial development opportunities [5][8] Group 2 - The development of celebrity IPs serves as a core strategy for expanding commercial empires and stabilizing careers, transforming short-term popularity into long-term attention [8][10] - Successful IPs are characterized by a complex worldview that deepens the connection between celebrities and fans, enhancing the commercial viability of these IPs [11][12] - The rise of plush toy markets, driven by brands like Pop Mart, has significantly boosted the sales of celebrity IPs, with some plush toys achieving sales of over 90,000 units [14][15] Group 3 - The commercialization of celebrity IPs faces challenges due to immature distribution channels, with many celebrities opting for self-managed sales through apps or mini-programs to maximize profits [15][21] - Offline sales often occur at concert venues through pop-up stores, which serve as emotional connection points for fans and help convert casual attendees into dedicated followers [21][23] - The integration of celebrity IPs with cultural tourism has proven effective in expanding their visibility and lifespan, as seen with Mayday's "Bubu" installations in iconic locations [24][25] Group 4 - The article highlights a trend where singers are more likely to create IPs compared to actors, due to the higher frequency of interactions with fans through concerts and events [25][28] - Singers have greater autonomy in developing IPs, allowing them to leverage their music copyrights effectively, which is crucial in adapting to the changing music market [28][29] - The shift from physical albums to digital formats has diminished the tangible connection between fans and artists, making IPs essential for maintaining fan engagement [28][32]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Beijing International Trendy Toy Expo (PTS) serves as a global platform for IP enthusiasts, featuring renowned international IP giants and attracting hundreds of global designers, promoting cultural exchange and interaction within the trendy toy industry [1][3]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The theme of this year's PTS is "Return of Playfulness, Seeking the Wilderness of the Heart," showcasing major IPs from Disney, Universal, Bandai, and others [1]. - Bubble Mart's well-known IPs, including LABUBU, MOLLY, and Xingxingren, were prominently featured, with numerous artists present for signings [3]. - The event aims to enhance fan engagement through upgraded interactive experiences, allowing deeper immersion into the IP world [3]. Group 2: International Participation - Attendees from various countries, such as Russia, expressed excitement about the event, highlighting the global appeal of specific IPs like Hirono [5]. - The presence of international designers and fans indicates a growing interest in trendy toys and IP culture beyond China [5]. Group 3: Market Expansion - Chinese original IPs are accelerating their international presence, with significant success noted for IPs like Labubu in the European market [7]. - The collaboration between Bubble Mart and the Beijing Cultural and Tourism Bureau aims to leverage cultural resources to enhance cultural innovation and economic benefits [7].

报告导读： 潮玩谷子赛道快速发展，一级市场相关项目投融资高峰期已过，当前仍保持相 对稳定的项目数量，二级市场龙头加大力度布局相关业务。 投资建议： 潮玩谷子赛道仍在快速发展，尽管自高峰期以来一级市场投融资项目数量有回落，但近年来仍保持相对稳定，且二级市场玩家加大力度布局相关 业务，包括部分文具文创企业、IP方等。我们认为随着相关产业的快速扩容和竞争加剧，有优质IP矩阵、供应链把控能力强、具备出色运营及渠道建设力的龙 头企业更能脱颖而出。 潮玩谷子投资在21世纪10年代中期达到顶峰，如今保持相对稳定。 根据IT桔子信息，2015-2018年随泡泡玛特盲盒产品的推出与文娱行业的高速发展，每 年潮玩谷子一级市场投资事件数超过40起；2022年后数量有所回落并逐步趋稳，2022-2024年分别为19/9/11起2025年截至7月10日已录得11起。 衍生品周边最受关注，投资机构所投相比占比逐步提升。 在潮玩谷子赛道的投资布局中，被投企业可清晰划分为三大核心方向：IP内容方向、衍生品周边方 向和平台型方向，其中衍生品周边方向企业最受关注，2024年衍生品周边/IP内容方/平台型被投项目占比分别为60%/40%/0%。投 ...

Core Insights - The潮玩谷子 (trendy toys) sector is still rapidly developing, with a relatively stable number of investment projects in the primary market despite a decline from peak levels. The secondary market is seeing increased activity from players, including stationery and cultural enterprises, as well as IP holders [1][2]. Investment Trends - Investment in the潮玩谷子 sector peaked in the mid-2010s, with over 40 investment events annually from 2015 to 2018. However, the number of events has decreased since 2022, stabilizing at 19 in 2022, 9 in 2023, and 11 in 2024, with 11 recorded by July 10, 2025 [2]. - The investment landscape is divided into three core directions: IP content, derivative products, and platform-type enterprises. The derivative products segment is the most favored, with projected investment proportions of 60% for derivative products, 40% for IP content, and 0% for platform-type projects in 2024 [3]. Valuation Changes - Hitcard's valuation fluctuated, starting at 30 million yuan in 2021 and peaking at 500 million yuan in 2022, before dropping to 150 million yuan in 2024 [4]. - Yiqi Culture's valuation grew rapidly from 100 million yuan in 2022 to 500 million yuan by February 2025 [4]. - 52TOYS maintained a leading valuation in the sector, increasing from 75 million yuan in 2015 to 4.273 billion yuan by May 2025, with plans to enter the secondary market [4]. - KAYOU's valuation reached 900 million USD in 2021, with plans to enter the secondary market as well [4]. - Xingyue Holdings maintained a valuation of 1.5 billion yuan since 2021 and is preparing to enter the secondary market [5].

Core Viewpoint - Quantum Song Group (NASDAQ: QSG) is acquiring the remaining equity of its subsidiary Letsvan through a cash and stock combination, marking a deep integration phase for both companies in the trendy toy business [4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will be executed through a private placement of 18,219,330 shares of Class A common stock to Letsvan's founder and CEO, Zhan Huiyu, as compensation for the remaining equity [5]. - The shares will be delivered in three phases and will include vesting and lock-up provisions [5]. - Zhan Huiyu will be appointed as a director of Quantum Song on August 1, 2025, to facilitate the integration [5]. Group 2: Background of Letsvan - Letsvan is a pioneer in China's trendy toy industry, focusing on global artist IP incubation, operation, and full-chain commercialization of trendy toy products [4]. - Prior to founding Letsvan in 2020, Zhan Huiyu accumulated extensive experience in the cultural gifts and trendy toy sectors, having worked for companies like Walmart (Shenzhen) and CITIC Health [6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The transaction aims to further integrate resources between Quantum Song and Letsvan, enhancing business synergy and competitive advantage in the trendy toy sector [6]. - In March 2023, Quantum Song acquired 61% of Letsvan, marking the largest primary market acquisition in the trendy toy sector in China this year [6]. - Letsvan's new trendy toy IP, WAKUKU, has seen significant demand, with multiple sell-outs in both online and offline channels [6]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Letsvan recently launched a new trendy toy IP, SIINONO, which has received ongoing popularity, indicating the successful integration and strategic operational capabilities post-acquisition [8]. - The company is entering a new phase of matrix and ecological development in trendy toy IP, suggesting promising future growth [8].

Core Insights - The trading card game (TCG) market is experiencing rapid global growth, with China's market expected to reach 26.3 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing global growth rates [1][3] - The global TCG market is projected to grow from 14.95 billion USD in 2024 to 57.08 billion USD by 2033, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [2] Industry Overview - China's TCG market is currently the largest globally, with a market size of 26.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 110.4% [3] - The market is expected to reach 44.6 billion yuan by 2029, driven by rising disposable income and a growing consumer base of over 503 million people interested in IP-related products [3] Key Drivers - The TCG market's growth is fueled by both demand and supply dynamics, with increasing consumer willingness to spend on emotional value associated with IPs and a burgeoning domestic IP ecosystem [3] - The TCG industry chain in China is maturing, with active secondary market transactions stimulating further expansion in the primary market [3] Core Elements of TCG - TCGs are characterized by low prices, high premiums, and high repurchase rates, with unique gameplay mechanics enhancing consumer engagement [4] - Successful IPs in the TCG space often possess cultural significance, emotional value, and strong fan engagement, which are critical for market success [4] Investment Opportunities - Companies with rich IP reserves and significant channel advantages are recommended for investment, including: - Card Game: A leading player in the entertainment sector with a strong market share and a diverse IP matrix [5] - Yaoji Technology: Engaged in trading platforms and card production, with potential for growth in card distribution [5] - Aofei Entertainment: Known for its popular IPs, which can drive the success of card products [5] - Huali Technology: Benefiting from the TCG industry chain through sales of related equipment and IP cards [5]