Economic Outlook - Economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. economic growth for this year and next, with GDP expected to grow by 1.8% in 2023, up from a previous estimate of 1.3% [2] - The upward revision is primarily due to significantly improved expectations for business investment [2] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a similar pace in 2026 [2] Employment Trends - The average monthly job growth in the U.S. is now expected to be 60,000 for this year, down from a prior forecast of 87,000 [2] - Recent months have shown a notable slowdown in job growth, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September [2] - Economists anticipate another 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, followed by a total of 75 basis points in cuts by 2026 [2] Inflation Expectations - The NABE group expects U.S. inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until next year [2] - The year-on-year increase in the PCE price index is projected to decline from 3% this year to 2.5% by the end of 2026 [2] Trade and Economic Policy - The economic outlook has been complicated by significant and frequently changing policy measures from the Trump administration, particularly regarding tariffs [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been slower and more moderate than many economists had anticipated [2]

来源：中国银行保险报 朱艳霞 据了解，寇江华于2000年8月进入原中国保监会工作，在办公厅、消保局等部门任职；2015年至2017 年，挂职天津市滨海新区中心商务区管委会副主任；2018年4月，任天津港保税区管委会副巡视员。寇 江华还曾担任天津市滨海新区金融工作局党组书记、局长，中国(天津)自贸试验区管委会办公室党组成 员、副主任等。2025年3月，寇江华担任渤海人寿党委书记。 公告显示，截至2025年9月，渤海人寿董事会年内变更董事人数超过三分之一。对此，该公司表示，董 事变动均为正常人事调整，符合相关法律法规及公司章程规定，不会对日常经营管理及财务状况产生重 大不利影响。 近日，渤海人寿发布公告称，因到达退休年龄等原因，吕英博辞任渤海人寿董事、董事长及董事会下设 专门委员会职务。根据天津金融监管局批复核准，由寇江华接任渤海人寿董事、董事长。 (责任编辑：孟茜云) ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of New China Life Insurance has surged by 6.69%, with a trading volume of 10.82 million shares and a transaction amount of 711 million yuan, following the release of its latest earnings forecast indicating a significant year-on-year net profit growth of 45% to 65% for the first three quarters [2] Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 29.986 billion to 34.122 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45% to 65% [2] - The latest financing balance as of October 13 is 2.67 billion yuan, with a recent increase in financing balance of 78.41 million yuan, representing a growth of 3.04% over the past five days [2] Market Activity - Despite the stock price increase, the main funds have shown a net outflow of 180 million yuan over the past five days, with a net inflow of 6.3462 million yuan on the previous trading day [2] - The stock has received a "buy" rating from one institution in the past month, with the highest target price set at 71.11 yuan by CITIC Securities on September 16 [2]

Group 1 - Salt Lake Co. expects net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to be between 4.3 billion and 4.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.89% to 49.62% [1][2] - The increase in profit is attributed to the rise in potassium chloride prices compared to the previous year, which boosted profitability in that segment [1] - Lithium carbonate market prices have seen a downward adjustment, but overall performance remains positive compared to the previous year [1] Group 2 - Lingyi Technology anticipates net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to be between 1.89 billion and 2.12 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 34.10% to 50.42% year-on-year [4][5] - The growth is driven by the launch of new AI terminal products and increased production capacity [5] Group 3 - Xinhua Insurance projects net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to be between 29.986 billion and 34.122 billion yuan, an increase of 45% to 65% year-on-year [7] - The growth is attributed to improved asset allocation and a favorable capital market environment, leading to significant investment income [7] Group 4 - Sanmei Co. expects net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to be between 1.524 billion and 1.646 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 171.73% to 193.46% [22] - The increase is driven by the reduction in production quotas for certain refrigerants and rising market prices [22] Group 5 - Flying Technology anticipates net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to be between 275 million and 300 million yuan, representing a growth of 110.80% to 129.96% year-on-year [24] - The growth is supported by increased investment in cutting-edge fields and a recovery in consumer electronics demand [24] Group 6 - Northern Rare Earth received a warning letter from the Inner Mongolia Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to disclose related party non-operating fund occupation [6] - The company incurred costs related to employee salaries and benefits post-acquisition, which were not disclosed as required [6] Group 7 - Gansu Energy expects net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to be between 1.55 billion and 1.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.86% to 15.47% [29] - The increase is attributed to a decrease in power generation costs compared to the previous year [29] Group 8 - Dongfang Tower anticipates net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 to be between 750 million and 900 million yuan, indicating a growth of 60.83% to 93% year-on-year [30] - The growth is driven by stable production in potassium chloride and rising market prices [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Hong Kong dividend sector has shown resilience, with the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Total Return Index rising by 1.08% while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 3.11% and 5.48% respectively [1][2] - The dividend style has experienced a significant correction, making it an attractive investment opportunity as the market shifts from growth stocks to dividend stocks, which have shown a notable lag in performance over the past two months [1][2] - Insurance capital is expected to be a significant source of incremental funds in the stock market, with the dividend sector being a key allocation direction due to its low volatility and high dividend yield characteristics [1][2] Group 2 - The banking sector within the Hong Kong dividend weight sector is anticipated to see fundamental improvements due to supportive monetary policies and stabilized interest margins, which will enhance net interest income growth [2] - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index is 6.10%, compared to 4.62% for the CSI Dividend Index, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.59 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.67 [2] - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery in China are favorable for dividend strategies, with state-owned enterprises showing strong willingness and capability for dividend distribution [2] Group 3 - The performance of the Hong Kong dividend assets has significantly outperformed mainstream broad-based indices in recent years, indicating a strong trend in favor of dividend strategies [8] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index include companies from various sectors, with notable dividend yields and recent performance metrics [25][23] - The recent performance of the Hong Kong Stock Connect China Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF shows a net value of 1.5934 and a scale of 33.94 billion, with a weekly trading volume of 3.84 billion [23]

北京商报讯（记者 李秀梅）10月13日，河南金融监管局发文表示，连日来，黄淮地区遭遇多轮持续阴 雨天气，降雨量较常年同期明显偏多，给秋粮及时收获烘干和冬小麦适期播种带来挑战。河南金融监管 局积极行动、提前部署，迅速统筹全省保险行业启动应急响应机制，以精准监管引领、高效理赔服务、 提前部署承保等系列举措，为"三秋"生产筑牢金融"防护网"。组织保险行业高效应对黄淮秋雨灾害。 据介绍，河南金融监管局督促保险公司坚持"主动、快速、精准、公正"原则，全面提升秋粮理赔服务质 效，共筑灾前预防、灾中应急、灾后补偿的多重防线。一方面，积极发挥防灾减损功能。大力开展风险 减量工作，加强与当地农业农村、气象等部门的沟通，通过协调租用或捐赠抽水器具和履带收割机、移 动烘干机等农用机具，将理赔服务纳入秋粮抢收抢烘应急机制。截至目前，为实现秋粮稳产丰收，全省 保险业投入防灾减损费超1200万元，协调租用或捐赠履带收割机96辆，烘干设备134台。另一方面，高 效开展理赔工作。开通秋粮理赔绿色通道，保持报案电话24小时畅通，及时了解并记录农户报案情况， 组织农业专家和理赔人员深入受灾地块开展查勘定损。针对秋雨导致田间泥泞等查勘难点，加大卫 ...

一是强化工作协同，促进供需匹配。联合市科技、工信等行业主管部门定期梳理、整合"科技创新企 业"名录，重点标注科技称号、自主知识产权等关键要素，累计已向保险机构推送1.6万余条企业信息。 今年上半年，辖内科技保险累计提供保险保障7240.35亿元，惠及企业9万余家次。 二是做优服务平台，畅通助企渠道。迭代升级"津惠通"金融产品自选小程序，持续更新"科技创新企业 保险产品"模块，已上线19家保险机构162款保险产品，覆盖实验室、关键设备或技术研发以及知识产权 申请、运用、保护等各个风险场景，以清单式服务、全链条保障支持科技企业更加直接精准地按需筛选 产品、对接保险机构。 三是组织专项活动，深化保企对接。探索以支持天开园建设为着力点，组织重点保险机构开展"天开园 企业科技保险政策产品宣讲活动"走访活动，首批为20余家驻园企业代表集中宣讲政策、推介产品，通 过"政保企"三向发力增进保险服务科技创新效能。 中经记者 何莎莎 北京报道 近十年来，我国创新能力大幅度提升。特别是党的十八大以来，我国加快实施创新驱动发展战略，全社 会研发经费加速聚集。 国家统计局数据显示，全社会研究与试验发展经费分别于2019年和2022年迈 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 13 日 收益率大多下行，利差小幅波动 ——信用分析周报（2025/9/28-2025/10/11） 投资要点： 本周（9/28-10/11）市场概览： 1）一级市场：因涉及国庆假期，本周传统信用债发行量、偿还量、净融资额环比上 周均有所减少；资产支持证券净融资额环比上周减少 161 亿元；本周 AA、AA+产业 债发行利率重新回到 3%上方，AA+、AAA 金融债发行利率重新升至 2%上方。 联系人 2）二级市场：本周信用债成交量环比上周减少 505 亿元；换手率方面，本周信用债 换手率除产业债较上周无变化外，其余券种换手率较上周整体下行。本周不同评级 不同期限的信用债收益率大多下行，短端下行幅度大于中长端。总体来看，本周 AA 商业贸易行业信用利差大幅走扩，AA+电子、纺织服装行业信用利差大幅压缩，其 余不同行业不同评级的信用利差波动幅度均不超过 3BP。具体来看，本周 AA 商业 贸易行业信用利差较上周走扩 12BP，本周 AA+电子、纺织服装行业信用利差较上周 分别压缩 9BP、8BP，除此以外，其余各行业各评级的债券信用利 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 保持短久期、高流动性策略 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值小幅修复，底仓品种价值显现：可转 | 2025-09-29 | | --- | --- ...

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 商务部回应近期中方相关经贸政策措施指出，中国的稀土出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将予以许可。中方事先已就措施可能对产供链产生的影响 | | 进行了充分评估，并确信相关影响非常有限。中方注意到美方宣布将对中方加征100%关税的有关情况，美方的行为严重损害中方利益，严重破坏双方经贸会谈 | | 氛围，中方对此坚决反对。动辄以高额关税进行威胁，不是与中方相处的正确之道。对于关税战，中方的立场是一贯的，我们不愿打，但也不怕打。如果美方 | | 一意孤行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 | | 据中国基金报，10月12日晚间，美国副总统万斯在接受采访时候，针对特朗普的最新关税威胁，释放了一些缓和的信号。万斯在节目中表示："特朗普愿意与 中国进行理性谈判。"万斯表示，他周六和周日都与特朗普通话。万斯说，总统"珍视他与中方建立的友谊"，但他补充说："我们拥有很多筹码。我的希望 | | ——我也知道总统的希望——是我们不必动用这些筹码。"万斯说："接下来的几周，我们会看到很多迹象。" | | 宏观信息 全国工业和信息化产业科技创新工作座谈会在重庆市召开。会议强 ...