Core Viewpoint - The building materials industry, closely linked to real estate, has faced revenue and profit pressures since 2021, but is now showing signs of demand stabilization and potential profit recovery due to policy shifts and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Demand Outlook - The demand for building materials is expected to decline in 2025, but the rate of decline is narrowing, with a positive second derivative indicating potential recovery [2][4]. - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to improve due to reduced local government debt pressures and a more favorable financing environment, with a notable decrease in the growth rate of municipal financing debt [2]. - The real estate sector is experiencing significant declines in new construction and completion areas, but overall sales are expected to turn positive, indicating a potential shift in demand for building materials [3]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy introduced by the government aims to curb excessive competition in the building materials sector, which has seen profit margins reach historical lows [6]. - The competitive landscape is crucial for recovery; larger firms with better market positions can influence pricing more effectively, while smaller firms may struggle [6][9]. - Companies like Beixin Building Materials, with over 60% market share, have demonstrated resilience during demand downturns, maintaining profitability in their gypsum board business [7]. Group 3: Price Recovery and Elasticity - The price recovery in the fiberglass sector is leading the way, with price increases initiated in early 2025 due to better demand and competitive conditions [8]. - The cement industry, while facing weaker demand than fiberglass, has a favorable competitive structure, with significant price increases observed in early 2025 [9]. - The consumer building materials sector, although lagging behind in demand recovery, shows potential for higher market value elasticity as the industry undergoes consolidation [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The building materials industry presents structural investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" policy, with profits at a bottom and companies collaborating on price increases [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The real estate beta factor has turned positive, indicating a favorable environment for retail building materials, with leading companies expected to enhance operational quality and market share through channel optimization and retail category expansion [2][7] - Cement demand is expected to continue declining in 2024, but there are signs of price stabilization and potential profit recovery in 2025, with leading cement companies recommended for their cost advantages and high dividend yields [2][11][14] - The building materials sector has a cash dividend ratio of 43.71% and a 12-month dividend yield of 2.22%, suggesting strong investment value in high-dividend stocks [15] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of retail building materials and suggests actively positioning in leading companies as the market shows signs of recovery [2][7] - The cement industry is expected to experience a bottoming out, with price stabilization and profit recovery anticipated in 2025 [11][14] - The focus is on identifying products with high price elasticity and improving market share, particularly in the retail segment [23] Market Performance - The building materials index showed a 1.18% increase, with specific sectors like consumer building materials performing well [24] - Cement prices increased by 1.6% during the reporting period, with a cumulative production of 1.825 billion tons in December 2024, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year decline [30] Price Changes - The average price of cement in February 2025 was 399.41 yuan/ton, up 34.68 yuan/ton year-on-year [30] - The average price of float glass decreased by 20% to 1293 yuan/ton, with a production capacity utilization rate of 76.43% [37] - The price of non-alkali fiberglass increased slightly, with the average market price reaching 3824 yuan/ton, a 24.38% year-on-year increase [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials industry is experiencing a recovery in demand driven by the peak construction season, with a focus on supply-side changes [1] - Cement prices are expected to continue rising in the short term due to recovering demand and low inventory levels, while long-term policies may boost infrastructure investment [38] - The consumer building materials sector is anticipated to see a rebound as government policies facilitate the clearance of existing housing stock [39] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with prices for both roving and electronic yarn expected to remain steady in the short term [40] - Float glass prices are under pressure, with an expected decline due to increased supply and stagnant demand [40] Summary by Sections Industry News - Sichuan has announced its peak production tasks for the cement industry for 2025, requiring a baseline of 190 days for staggered production [7] - A meeting in Shanxi focused on promoting stable growth in the cement industry, emphasizing the importance of policy implementation and industry self-discipline [9][10] Industry Data - The national average cement price is reported at 352.69 CNY per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.24% [16] - The average price of float glass has decreased to 1324.01 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.14% decline from the previous week [18] Market Review - The construction materials sector has seen a weekly increase of 1.18%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.40 percentage points [25] - The top-performing companies in the construction materials sector this week include Fashilong and Fujian Cement, with significant weekly gains [32]

行业周报 · 建筑材料行业 施工旺季带动需求恢复,关注供给侧变化 2025年3月16日 核心观点 建筑材料行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 贾亚萌 ☎: 010-80927680 网: jiayameng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523060001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-03-14 建筑材料(SW) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 水泥:需求恢复带动价格上涨,错峰即将结束,关注供给端变化。本周全 ● 国水泥价格小幅上涨。市场需求增幅明显,本周全国水泥磨机开工负荷均值环 比增长 7.16pct。本周全国范围内错峰停窑率仍偏高,熟料库存小幅下降。后 续来看,需求将继续处于恢复状态,对价格起到支撑效果,下周开始北方错峰 生产将陆续结束,但短期熟料库存低位,对价格影响不大,预计短期水泥价格 仍有增长空间;中长期来看,政策发力有望带动基建投资增速,提振水泥市场 需求,此外,随着水泥纳入全国碳市场,行业落后产能出清将加 ...

Group 1: Economic Trends - The economic index for the entire industry continued to rise in February, indicating an improvement in the economic climate[1] - Key areas of improvement include midstream manufacturing, consumer goods, and certain cyclical products[1] - The real estate chain is recovering with a 32% year-on-year increase in housing sales in 30 major cities in February[4] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Significant improvement in midstream manufacturing, driven by demand in sectors like construction machinery, automation, and specialized equipment[2] - Excavator sales in January-February increased by 27.2% year-on-year, indicating strong demand[2] - Prices for photovoltaic materials and battery components have rebounded, suggesting a recovery in supply-demand dynamics[2] Group 3: Consumer Demand - Domestic consumption is showing signs of recovery, particularly in dairy products and travel services, benefiting from the Spring Festival[3] - The average daily passenger volume for civil aviation in February showed positive year-on-year growth, reflecting improved demand[3] - The price decline for milk has narrowed, indicating a potential price recovery in consumer goods[3] Group 4: Price Trends in Cyclical Products - Precious metals prices continued to rise, with COMEX gold prices increasing year-on-year[4] - Energy metals like cobalt and nickel are experiencing price strength, while lithium resources are showing short-term weakness[4] - Chemical products such as PVC and urea have seen price improvements, indicating a positive trend in the chemical sector[4] Group 5: Risks and Considerations - Risks include the possibility of domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations and external demand not meeting projections[6] - There is a potential risk of model failure, which could impact forecasts and investment strategies[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent National People's Congress emphasized policies to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to boost confidence in the construction materials sector. Key measures include reducing restrictive policies, promoting the renovation of urban villages and old houses, and expanding the use of existing land and commercial properties [3][4] - The construction materials index increased by 1.18% in the week from March 10 to March 14, 2025, but underperformed the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.59% [11][19] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index has increased by 1.87%, while the construction materials index has decreased by 4.91%, indicating a 6.78% underperformance [11][14] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The construction materials index rose by 1.18% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.40 percentage points [11] - The average PE ratio for the construction materials sector is 27.32 times, and the PB ratio is 1.15 times, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market [21][25] Cement Sector - As of March 15, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 354.52 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.33% increase from the previous period. The clinker inventory ratio decreased by 2.21 percentage points to 42.45% [25][27] - Regional price variations were noted, with the highest increase in North China at 7.94% and a decrease in East China by 0.79% [25][30] Glass Sector - The price of float glass decreased to 1324.00 RMB/ton, down by 2.14%, while the futures price also fell by 3.27% to 1154 RMB/ton [67][68] - The national inventory of float glass increased by 1.49%, reaching 62.6 million weight boxes [69][70] Fiberglass Sector - The market for non-alkali fiberglass continues to show stable pricing, with electronic fiberglass prices remaining steady after recent increases [19][67] Consumer Building Materials - The prices of key raw materials in the consumer building materials sector have shown slight fluctuations, with acrylic prices rising by 5.26% this week [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the building materials industry, emphasizing price increases and improved shipping conditions as key drivers for growth in 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - Price increases are the main theme for the building materials industry in spring 2025, signaling a return to rational competition after a period of aggressive price wars [3][32]. - The cement sector is experiencing price hikes driven by low inventory levels, with a consensus among companies to avoid destructive competition, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability [3][11]. - The consumer building materials segment is witnessing price increases across various categories, indicating a potential turning point for the industry [3][32]. - The fiberglass industry is seeing multiple rounds of price increases, suggesting a recovery in profitability, while the glass sector faces challenges related to construction completions [3][32]. Summary by Sections Cement - Low inventory levels are driving price increases, with significant hikes reported in various regions starting from March 2025 [7][8]. - The industry has reached a consensus to prevent destructive competition, which is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in profitability [11][12]. - Major companies such as Conch Cement are highlighted for their cost and scale advantages, with profitability expected to improve [18][19]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials is improving due to active second-hand housing transactions, which are expected to boost shipments [36][49]. - Price increases in categories like gypsum board and coatings are signaling a shift towards profitability recovery [36][39]. - Companies such as Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [37][40]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is experiencing a recovery in prices, with electronic yarn and cloth prices showing upward trends [52][53]. - The industry is expected to continue benefiting from new application scenarios and sustained demand growth [53][54]. Glass - The flat glass sector is under pressure due to declining construction completions, necessitating close monitoring of supply-side adjustments [32][49]. - Companies like Qibin Group and South Glass A are recommended for their market positions amid these challenges [32][49].

Group 1: Key Insights on Jidian Co., Ltd. (吉电股份) - Jidian Co., Ltd. has transformed from a coal-fired power company to a renewable energy enterprise, with its renewable energy capacity surpassing coal-fired capacity in 2019 [2] - The company is focusing on green hydrogen production, with significant projects like the Daan wind-solar integrated green hydrogen project and the Siping pear tree green methanol project [4][5] - The company’s installed capacity includes 3.3 million kW of coal power, 3.47 million kW of wind power, and 6.62 million kW of solar power, with renewable energy contributing significantly to revenue and gross profit [2][6] Group 2: Industry Trends and Opportunities - The green electricity sector is approaching a turning point, driven by accelerated grid construction and supportive policies that enhance the power system's adjustment capabilities [5] - The global hydrogen demand is projected to exceed 97 million tons in 2023, with green hydrogen expected to play a crucial role in meeting future energy needs [3] - The chemical industry is experiencing a structural opportunity, with low valuations and potential recovery in demand expected by 2025, particularly in potassium fertilizers and organic silicon [29][32] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Projections - The suspension of diamond exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to create a supply shortage, potentially driving up diamond prices [26][27] - The construction materials sector is seeing a recovery in demand, particularly in cement and glass fiber, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [18][19][22] - The AI and education sector is witnessing advancements, with companies like Duolingo reporting significant revenue growth, indicating a trend towards commercialization of AI applications in education [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the building materials industry [2][4]. Core Insights - After the Spring Festival, cement demand is gradually recovering, with attention on positive changes in both supply and demand sides [4]. - The report highlights that the State Council is focusing on resolving structural contradictions in key industries, which is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the building materials sector and boost industry valuations [4]. - The cement market is experiencing a slow recovery in demand, with a 9 percentage point increase in shipment rates in key regions, although year-on-year comparisons show an 11% decline [4][12]. - The report suggests that as demand continues to recover, prices are expected to show a fluctuating upward trend [12]. Summary by Sections Cement Market - National cement prices have decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with price increases observed in regions like Hebei, Shanghai, and Jiangsu, ranging from 10 to 20 yuan per ton [12]. - The report notes that while some areas are experiencing price declines, many companies are actively raising prices to improve operational conditions [12][14]. - Key companies to watch include Huaxin Cement (600801.SH), Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ), and Conch Cement (600585.SH) [4]. Glass Market - The domestic float glass market is seeing a downward price trend, with the average price at 1321 yuan per ton, down 19 yuan from the previous period [32]. - Demand remains sluggish, and inventory levels are increasing, with total inventory at 6713.5 million weight boxes, up 2.4% from the previous period [34]. - Companies to focus on include Qibin Group (601636.SH) and Jinjing Technology (600586.SH) [5]. Consumer Building Materials - Prices of major raw materials for consumer building materials are on a downward trend, which is expected to lower costs and improve profitability [40]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales area and sales volume for new and second-hand homes [40]. - Companies to consider include Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), and Sankeshu (603737.SH) [5].

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - July data remains flat, with real estate sales declining slightly month-on-month, and physical volume data in real estate staying stable [2][4] - The performance of leading companies in the consumer building materials sector is expected to maintain resilience despite high base effects in Q2 [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - Cement: Regional hotspots show some performance, but demand continues to drag down the sector [3][10] - Architectural glass: Float glass profitability has seen a temporary recovery, but the medium to long-term outlook remains in a bottom-seeking phase [3][15] - Glass fiber: Inventory accumulation has increased, with major manufacturers maintaining stable prices [3][24] - Carbon fiber: Limited demand recovery, with a clear differentiation between low-end and high-end capacities [3][28] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The cement market has seen a slight price increase of 0.13% nationwide, with price adjustments varying by region [33] - In the glass industry, the average price of float glass is 1454 RMB/ton, with inventory levels decreasing slightly [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - Leading companies in the consumer building materials sector are focusing on long-term positioning despite short-term risks, with a strong emphasis on market share and valuation alignment [2][5] - Companies like Oriental Yuhong and Beixin Building Materials are expected to maintain robust profit growth and competitive advantages in their respective segments [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasizes the critical impact of real estate sales on the building materials supply chain, indicating that inventory clearance in real estate will significantly enhance the operational environment for the entire sector [4][5] - The outlook for 2024 suggests a profit growth of 15% for Oriental Yuhong, with a recovery in valuation expected as the balance sheet improves [6] Other Important Information - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a significant divergence in performance between leading and second-tier companies, with the former showing more resilience [5][6] - The glass industry is facing challenges with profitability, as many companies are currently operating at a loss due to high inventory levels and price pressures [15][20] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What is the outlook for the cement market? - The cement market is expected to see price increases driven by industry self-discipline and seasonal demand fluctuations, although challenges remain due to high inventory levels and weak demand [33][34] Question: How are leading companies in the building materials sector performing? - Leading companies are expected to outperform their peers, with strong management strategies and market positioning allowing them to navigate current challenges effectively [5][6]