中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 畅力资产董事长宝晓辉表示，近期全球重要资产集体震荡的核心症结在于，美联储降息预期的剧烈分化 与反复调整。 在他看来，消息面上，原本市场预期12月会进行降息，但因为美国政府停摆，经济数据滞后披露，而暂 缓降息。一揽子未能按期披露的经济数据被滞后集中披露本身就带来更多不确定性，降息的预期差异再 度影响市场。美联储的货币政策通过全球流动性传导和资本重新定价，引发了各类资产的连锁波动。因 为市场过去已经对原本较为确定的12月降息进行了利好兑现，当下预期的快速反转直接冲击资产定价逻 辑。 近日，美股、加密货币、黄金出现全线下跌，"恐慌指数"（VIX，芝加哥期权交易所波动指数）连续数 日攀升。美国主要股指跌破关键技术支撑位，到11月20日，仍未企稳止跌。英、法、韩、日等多国资本 市场同样出现连续下挫，全球恐慌情绪再度升温。 多位受访机构人士对《中国经营报》记者表示，全球共振式波动主要受美联储降息预期变化，压制流动 性预期，以及对美股AI估值泡沫担忧攀升影响。 美股指数跌破关键技术支撑位 11月12日，美国政府重新"开门"，美股突然步入下行通道，随后几个交易日美股重要指数跌破60日均 线。其中，纳 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in the U.S. stock market, particularly driven by the AI revolution, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a historical high of 48,431.57 points, up 46% since the beginning of 2023, and the Nasdaq index doubling with a 131.25% increase [4]. - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia have seen significant stock price increases, with Nvidia's stock price soaring over 1300%, making it the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion [4][20]. - Notably, several prominent investors, including Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang and Bill Gates, have been reducing their stakes in their respective companies, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a historical high of 48,431.57 points, marking a 46% increase since the start of 2023 [4]. - The Nasdaq index hit a record high of 24,019.99 points, reflecting a 131.25% increase since the beginning of the year [4]. - Major tech stocks, including Microsoft and Apple, have seen their market capitalizations rise to around $4 trillion each, while Alphabet's market cap has surpassed $3.5 trillion [4]. Group 2: Investor Actions - Jensen Huang has sold a total of 8.297 million shares of Nvidia, reducing his holdings to below 70 million shares, with the sold shares valued at approximately $15.48 billion [16]. - Bill Gates' foundation sold 17 million shares of Microsoft, reducing its stake by 65%, with Microsoft now representing only 13.01% of the foundation's portfolio [19]. - Notable investors like段永平 have also reduced their positions in Nvidia by 38.04%, while Masayoshi Son has completely exited his Nvidia holdings [22][24]. Group 3: Company Financials - Nvidia reported a revenue of $130.5 billion for the fiscal year ending January 26, 2025, with a growth rate of 114% and a gross margin of 75% [14]. - For the first two quarters of the fiscal year 2026, Nvidia's quarterly revenues were $44.1 billion and $46.7 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 69% and 56%, respectively [14]. - In comparison, Apple's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025 was $102.466 billion, with a growth rate of 7.94%, while Alphabet's revenue for the third fiscal quarter was $102.346 billion, growing at 16% [12].

Core Insights - The recent pullback in the cryptocurrency market is primarily driven by non-native retail investors, with approximately $4 billion flowing out of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in November, surpassing the record set in February [1] - Despite the short-term sell-off in crypto ETFs, retail investors have significantly purchased around $96 billion in stock ETFs this month, indicating that they are not entirely avoiding risk assets [1] - JPMorgan believes that the correlation between cryptocurrencies and small-cap tech stocks remains intact, and the overall upward trend has not changed [1]

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间11月21日凌晨，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.84%报45752.26 点，标普500指数跌1.56%报6538.76点，纳指跌2.15%报22078.05点。热门股中，思科跌超3%，波音跌逾 3%，领跌道指。万得美国科技七巨头指数跌1.74%，亚马逊跌逾2%。 美国知名做空机构浑水创始人卡森·布洛克则表示，尽管市场上对人工智能可能出现泡沫的警告越来越 多，但现在并不是押注科技巨头股价下跌的好时机。他明确警告投资者，做空大型科技股将面临巨大风 险。 城堡证券的Scott Rubner也认为，标普500指数近期"健康的"回调为强劲反弹奠定了基础。他认为标普 500指数到年底将向7000点迈进，这相较于周三收盘价将上涨5.4%。 路透社发文称，英伟达的业绩虽然耀眼，但其业绩预测中对未来投资利润的不确定性，引发了对人工智 能基础设施投资能否产生回报的质疑，市场也对其能否带动客户持续大额投资AI存疑。 ...

2025.11. 21 本文字数：1499，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 周四，美国三大股指上演过山车行情，早盘在英伟达与沃尔玛财报带动下的反弹未能维持，冲高回 落、大幅收低。截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.84%，报45752.26点；标普500指数跌1.56%，报 6538.76点；纳斯达克指数跌2.16%，报22078.05点，均收于盘中低位附近。 由于政府停摆导致统计工作中断，部分10月就业数据将与11月报告合并，而11月就业将在美联储12 月议息会议之后公布。在缺乏最新数据的情况下，9月非农成为决策前能够参考的唯一一份完整就业 信息。 摩根大通分析师帕特里克·洛克（Patrick Locke）认为，9月数据"缺乏方向一致性"，新增就业和失 业率的表现"难以合并成一个明确的判断"，因此"并没有出现足以确认12月政策取向的关键信号"。 摩根士丹利策略团队（Morgan Stanley Strategy Team）则在数据公布后调整预测，放弃此前对美 联储将在12月降息25个基点的预期。策略团队认为，9月新增就业的"广泛反弹说明夏季经济放缓的 严重程度可能被夸大"，并表示尽管失业率略有上升，但 ...

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, the US real GDP recorded a high growth rate of 3.8% quarter-on-quarter, with Q3 expectations reaching 4%[6] - The divergence in opinions regarding the US economic outlook is increasing, with recession risks becoming more pronounced[10] Employment and Consumption Dynamics - The US job market is showing signs of accelerated decline, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, indicating a near-recession performance[11] - Despite the deteriorating job market, personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.7% to Q2 GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 2.74% in August[19][24] Income and Wealth Effects - Nominal disposable income growth for US residents remains stable at around 4.6%, supported by a 5% increase in wage income and an 8.5% rise in government transfer payments[28][31] - The wealth effect from rising stock prices has led to a historical high in household net worth, reaching $197 trillion in Q2 2025, with a ratio of net worth to disposable income at 782%[35][40] Structural Consumption Resilience - High-income households are primarily driving consumption resilience, with their spending growth significantly outpacing that of low-income households, which saw a cumulative increase of only 7.9% compared to 16.7% for high-income households since 2018[62][65] - The concentration of wealth among high-income groups is evident, with the top 1% holding nearly 50% of their assets in stocks and mutual funds, while low-income households are more reliant on real estate[45][48] Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of consumption resilience is contingent on the continuation of the technology cycle and its impact on income and wealth effects[69] - Risks include potential job losses in large enterprises, which could exacerbate the decline in consumer spending if high-income job losses occur[77][81]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, driven by hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and a global tech stock sell-off, highlighting the market's sensitivity to monetary policy outlook [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices initially rose to a high of $4,132 before retreating to a low of $4,055, indicating a complete reversal of gains for the day [2] - The surge in gold prices was primarily fueled by a wave of selling in global tech stocks, which increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, emphasizing caution regarding interest rate cuts, dampened bullish sentiment in the gold market [1][2] - The dollar index rebounded, approaching a six-month high, which placed additional pressure on gold prices denominated in dollars [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key price levels for gold were identified: resistance at $4,082, $4,100, and $4,132, with support at $4,055, $4,050, and $4,000 [5] - The market is expected to oscillate within the $4,050 to $4,100 range, with close attention needed on Federal Reserve communications and U.S. economic data [5]

关于多家科技股业绩超预期却继续下跌，李泽铭认为，现在困扰港股的因素，包括美联储12月份是否减 息的忧虑，目前委员投票情况来看，赞成减息跟反对减息的票数相当接近；另一方面，市场更加担心 AI投资所造成的泡沫，最近领跌的板块，基本上都是跟AI相关的，美股和港股都是类似情况，这个情 绪进一步蔓延也导致了市场下跌。近日港股成交比较低迷，预计12月美联储议息结果落地后，港股成交 额及波动幅度有望重新放大。 华金证券策略分析师邓利军认为，市场短期风险偏好可能偏中性。国内短期稳增长政策预期仍对风险偏 好有一定支撑；海外方面，受美联储内部分歧加剧影响，12月降息预期有所下降。 中金公司则分析，2025年的市场，从多个维度看，都是超出预期的，称之为牛市毫不为过。这背后，既 有实实在在的产业趋势（AI）和基本面改善。展望2026年，不论是越来越多A股和中国优质资产赴港上 市，还是南向资金持续涌入，对港股市场长期是大有裨益的。 港股其他科技股也存在类似情况，包括腾讯控股（00700.HK）、京东集团（09618.HK）都是业绩超预 期，然后连跌五天。 业内人士认为，美联储12月降息不确定，港股进入震荡时期，降息消息落地后成交和波动 ...

11月18日晚间，小米集团（01810.HK）公布了超预期的第三季度业绩，然而19日上午却大跌4.32%，中 午报收39.02港元，恒生科技指数跌0.98%，报收5590点。 中金公司则分析，2025年的市场，从多个维度看，都是超出预期的，称之为牛市毫不为过。这背后，既 有实实在在的产业趋势（AI）和基本面改善。展望2026年，不论是越来越多A股和中国优质资产赴港上 市，还是南向资金持续涌入，对港股市场长期是大有裨益的。 （文章来源：第一财经） 关于多家科技股业绩超预期却继续下跌，李泽铭认为，现在困扰港股的因素，包括美联储12月份是否减 息的忧虑，目前委员投票情况来看，赞成减息跟反对减息的票数相当接近；另一方面，市场更加担心 AI投资所造成的泡沫，最近领跌的板块，基本上都是跟AI相关的，美股和港股都是类似情况，这个情 绪进一步蔓延也导致了市场下跌。近日港股成交比较低迷，预计12月美联储议息结果落地后，港股成交 额及波动幅度有望重新放大。 港股其他科技股也存在类似情况，包括腾讯控股（00700.HK）、京东集团（09618.HK）都是业绩超预 期，然后连跌五天。 华金证券策略分析师邓利军认为，市场短期风险偏好可 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in the U.S. stock market, particularly in technology stocks, are attributed to concerns over inflated valuations, especially related to AI, and changing interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The recent drop in the Dow Jones by nearly 500 points and the S&P 500's four-day decline reflect a broader market correction, particularly in tech stocks that had previously surged due to AI hype [2][3]. - Amazon's recent issuance of $15 billion in bonds and issues faced by Blue Owl fund have heightened investor concerns, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks [3]. - The decline in Bitcoin is seen as a signal of reduced market risk appetite, as many tech investors also hold cryptocurrencies [3]. Federal Reserve Influence - A month ago, there was a strong expectation for a rate cut in December, but current probabilities have dropped below 50%, leading to market adjustments [4]. - Recent fluctuations in U.S. employment data have added to economic uncertainty, contributing to the market's downward trend [4]. Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to focus on company fundamentals rather than short-term market fluctuations, viewing recent declines as opportunities to acquire undervalued stocks [5]. - Key upcoming data points include the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data, which are crucial for understanding future interest rate directions [5]. - Investors should differentiate between companies that genuinely leverage AI for profitability and those that are merely riding the hype, focusing on firms with solid fundamentals [5].