新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月18日收盘主力合约短纤2508,涨跌+3.05%,成交量22.60万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为1984手。 短纤期货全合约总计成交40.29万手，比上一日新增6.28万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓24.02万手，比上一日增加8287手。全合约 前20席位空头持仓24.59万手，比上一日增加7132手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓26938、国泰君安，总持仓22256、银河期货，总持仓15813；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓26772、中信期货，总持仓25290、浙商期货，总持仓16632； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓10099、增仓1361，海通期货、持仓8110、增仓1171，乾坤期货、 持仓11433、增仓1150；多头减仓前二名分别是：中信建投、持仓5732、减仓-3455，永安期货、持仓5729、减仓-2000； 2025年6月18日短纤主力合约2508持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ...

观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑现期，关注累库实际情况，宏观不稳，欧美甲醇价格弱势，单边暂不好定方向，估值 低，偏向低了做多配。 甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/18 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/1 1 801 2383 2335 2373 2475 2365 2498 268 322 36 83 -986 2025/06/1 2 801 2395 2345 2380 2490 2365 2498 268 322 53 70 -1001 2025/06/1 3 801 2480 2450 2405 2550 2365 2590 279 325 50 60 -1001 2025/06/1 6 801 2585 2528 2478 2600 2390 2593 287 325 114 125 -1001 2025/06/1 7 801 2595 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term investors are advised to closely monitor the impact of changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation on risk - aversion sentiment and focus on the statements of the Fed's June FOMC meeting regarding inflation, the economy, and interest rate prospects. Short - term corrections are still regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed gold fluctuating and silver rising. The surrounding US dollar index rose, the 10Y US Treasury yield fell, and the US stock market declined, indicating an increase in the demand for US dollar safe - haven assets. The final closing prices were: COMEX gold 2508 contract at $3406.5 per ounce, down 0.32%; US silver 2507 contract at $37.18 per ounce, up 2.01%; SHFE gold 2508 main contract at 785.08 yuan per gram, down 1.46%; SHFE silver 2508 contract at 8864 yuan per kilogram, up 0.45% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7%. In July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 0.2% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.01 tons to 945.94 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14675.36 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 20.2 tons to 1215.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 Key Events This Week - The US retail sales month - on - month rate announced on Tuesday was - 0.9%, lower than the expected - 0.7%, and the previous value was revised down. The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Tuesday maintained the third on - hold stance this year. The focus this week is on the Fed's June FOMC meeting early on Thursday. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:03. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision at 19:00 on Thursday [4]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Suggestions - For London gold, the short - term technical trend has weakened. Support levels are around 3365, with strong support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3400, 3450, and strong resistance in the 3500 area. For London silver, the short - term trend has strengthened. Support levels are in the 36.9 - 37 area, then 36, 35.5, with strong support in the 34.8 - 35 area, and the upside space has opened up to the 40 area, and even 45 is possible [5]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of precious metal futures and spot prices, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, and the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity markets, such as the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [24].

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.24% to 31.3244 points, indicating a positive trend in grain prices as of June 17, with significant gains observed in various futures markets [1] Group 1: Grain Market Performance - CBOT corn futures rose by 0.86%, reaching $4.3875 per bushel, reflecting a stable demand in the corn market [1] - CBOT wheat futures experienced a notable increase of 2.44%, priced at $5.6575 per bushel, suggesting strong market conditions for wheat [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.71%, now at $10.68 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 0.84%. However, soybean oil futures declined by 0.40% after a significant rise of 8.77% on the previous day, indicating volatility in the soybean complex [1]

南华期货铅风险管理报告 2025年6月17日 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号： Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号：F03145451 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290号 铅价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 预测区间 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 16860 | 16300-17100 | 8.95% | 17.0% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 铅风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 17000 | | | | | 暂无 | 沪铅期权 | 暂无 | 暂无 | 暂无 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合 ...

source： 南华研究,同花顺 棉花风险管理策略建议 棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/6/17 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 12800-13700 | 0.0545 | 0.0339 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例 | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 库存偏高，担心棉价下 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | CF2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 13600- 13800 | | | 跌 | 多 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉价上涨 还可以锁定现货卖出价格 ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/17 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃：供应端整体保持低位波动状态不变；价格低位，冷修预期将增强 纯碱：5月-6月厂家检修逐步兑现；出口超预期，缓解国内过剩压力 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 29.21% | 78.7% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 21.17% | 20.3% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 璃 | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心玻璃价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失 ...

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贵金属日报: 地缘冲突短期主导金价 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月17日 【行情回顾】 | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE黄金主连 | 元/克 | 792.3 | -2.06 | -0.26% | | SGX黄金TD | 元/克 | 787.93 | -2.93 | -0.37% | | CME黄金主力 | 美元/盎司 | 3404.3 | -48.3 | -1.4% | | SHFE白银主连 | 元/千克 | 8858 | 67 | 0.76% | | SGX白银TD | 元/千克 | 8835 | 42 | 0.48% | | CME白银主力 | 美元/盎司 | 36.37 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE-TD黄金 | 元/克 | 4.37 | 0.87 | 24.86% | | SHFE-TD白银 | 元/千克 | 23 | 25 | -104.08% | | CME金银比 | / | 93.6019 | -1.328 | -1 ...

中经记者 郭婧婷 北京报道 近日，证监会核准中央汇金投资有限责任公司（以下简称"中央汇金"）成为三大AMC公司（中国信 达、东方资产、长城资产）旗下8家金融机构的实控人。此次中央汇金对8家AMC系金融机构的控股， 是继2月14日其从财政部手中接管三大AMC控股权后的业务整合延续。划转结束后，中央汇金直接或间 接控股的金融机构将超20家。 市场人士认为，此次8家机构中，长城、东兴和信达3家期货公司的加入，使得中央汇金金融版图的全牌 照布局得以完善。专业人士认为，资源整合后，中央汇金有望形成"全链条"优势。 有券商作出研判：在加快推进建设一流投资银行的背景下，中央汇金旗下券商进一步增多，券商牌照整 合预期升温，行业供给侧改革或将进一步加速。 中央汇金全牌照布局 此次新增8 家归于中央汇金实控的金融机构包括：长城国瑞证券有限公司、东兴证券股份有限公司、信 达证券股份有限公司、东兴基金管理有限公司、信达澳亚基金管理有限公司、长城期货股份有限公司 （以下简称"长城期货"）、东兴期货有限责任公司（以下简称"东兴期货"）和信达期货有限公司（以下 简称"信达期货"）。 值得一提的是，长城期货、东兴期货和信达期货3家期货公司的 ...