Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to continue to run on the high side. With the US July PC data in line with expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is controllable, and the decline of the August Michigan consumer confidence index, the expectation of the Fed's September interest rate cut is further strengthened. Coupled with geopolitical tensions and the ruling that most of the US government's global tariff policies are illegal, the precious metal prices have strongly rebounded. Silver has performed much stronger than gold, and multi - orders can continue to be held or go long on dips [5]. - In the medium - to - long - term, due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, and the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, London gold spot rose 2.0% to $3478.93 per ounce, London silver spot rose 4.4% to $40.52 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $3546.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 4.8% to $41.37 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2510 rose 2.0% to 800.56 yuan per gram, and AG2510 rose 4.1% to 9775 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Regarding price differences, the spread between domestic and foreign gold (TD - London) was - 3.91 yuan per gram on September 1, 2025, with a 27.4% increase; the spread between domestic and foreign silver (TD - London) was - 28 yuan per kilogram, with a - 3.4% decrease [5]. Position Data - As of August 29, 2025, compared with August 28, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 977.68 tons, up 1.01%; the silver ETF - SLV was 15309.99769 tons, down 0.15%. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long positions increased 0.18%, the short positions decreased 1.96%, and the net long positions increased 0.81%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long positions increased 0.97%, the short positions decreased 0.18%, and the net long positions increased [5]. Inventory Data - From August 28 to August 29, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.42% to 38925853 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20% to 518232360 troy ounces. Data for SHFE gold and silver inventories were not available [5]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 0.06% to 7.11. The US dollar index fell 0.02% to 97.85, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.83% to 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.23%, the VIX rose 6.44% to 15.36, the S&P 500 fell 0.64% to 6460.26, and NYMEX crude oil fell 0.48% to $64.01 [5]. Economic Data and Events - The US July core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, the highest since February, in line with expectations; the July PCE price index annual rate was 2.6%, in line with expectations; the July core PCE price index monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations; the July PCE price index monthly rate was 0.2%, in line with expectations; the July personal spending monthly rate was 0.5%, the highest since September, in line with expectations; the July personal income monthly rate was 0.4%, in line with expectations [5]. - On August 29, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the US government's global tariff policies were illegal, and these tariff - increasing measures could be maintained until October 14 for the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative and deputy minister visited the US and held talks with relevant US government officials and business representatives [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for soybeans has both weak supply and demand. With the upcoming new - season harvest, price pressure is increasing. Regular auctions are effectively increasing the current supply, and discounted auctions are impacting the spot price system. The consumption recovery represented by the double - festival stocking will face pressure from the new - season harvest, making it difficult for prices to rise. The futures market shows an unchanged bearish trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Risk Strategies for Soybeans - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For planting entities with a large demand to sell newly harvested soybeans in autumn but facing significant short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean futures contract with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits. Also, when there is a large - scale listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option with a 30% ratio at a price of 50 - 60 to increase the selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: When worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, as the probability of price decline is high, it is advisable to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and pay attention to long - term procurement management. Focus on the A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for price guidance in autumn [2]. 3.2 Price Analysis - **Technical and Trend Analysis**: The technical side shows significant pressure, and the bearish trend remains unchanged. From August 29, 2025, to September 1, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean futures contracts increased slightly. For example, the A2511 contract rose from 3945 to 3965 (a 0.51% increase), the A2601 contract rose from 3948 to 3964 (a 0.41% increase), etc. [5]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: - **Positive Factors**: The remaining grain at the grass - roots level is almost exhausted, and traders' inventory clearance may be low, which limits the price decline. In September, the concentrated consumption scenarios are gradually recovering, and the demand for edible consumption is expected to pick up. The short - side positions have decreased, driving the futures price to rebound [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The quality and yield of the new - season soybeans are expected to improve, and the concentrated supply will be the main driving factor for the fundamentals, continuously pressuring prices. Regular auctions are continuously supplementing the current market supply, and low - price auction grains are impacting the price system of old - season commercial grains [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The near - term spot price range of caustic soda is relatively stable with no obvious price cuts. The delivery volume of downstream alumina plants continues to increase, but the price remains stable. Alkali plants keep reducing inventory, though the slope slows down. Supply output decreases slightly due to maintenance, which is a normal fluctuation. The cost remains stable, and the chlor - alkali profit stays above 300. Non - aluminum downstream is in the transition between the off - season and peak season, and the non - aluminum rigid demand is expected to increase seasonally. The future market should continue to focus on the spot rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2500 - 2900. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 23.49%, and the current volatility's historical percentile over 3 years is 49.4% [2]. Caustic Soda Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about caustic soda price decline, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short caustic soda futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended contract is SH2601, with a selling position and a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 2800 - 2850. They can also sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the caustic soda price rises, the spot selling price can be locked. The recommended option is SH601C3000, with a selling position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 70 - 80 [2]. - When the purchase of regular inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, to prevent the caustic soda price from rising and increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended contract is SH2601, with a buying position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 2600 - 2650. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the caustic soda price falls, the spot purchase price can be locked. The recommended option is SH601P2600, with a selling position, a hedging ratio of 50%, and the suggested entry range is 70 - 80 [2]. Caustic Soda Futures Price and Spread - On September 2, 2025, compared with September 1, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract increased by 35 to 2794, with a daily increase of 1.27%; the 09 contract increased by 40 to 2528, with a daily increase of 1.61%; the 01 contract increased by 65 to 2735, with a daily increase of 2.43%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 5 to 266; the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 to - 207; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 30 to - 59. The 05 - contract basis (Shandong Jinling) decreased by 35 to - 107; the 09 - contract basis decreased by 40 to 160; the 01 - contract basis decreased by 65 to - 48 [3]. Factory - Gate Prices of Different Caustic Soda Products - On September 1, 2025, for 32% caustic soda, among different brands in Shandong, Jinling's price was 2688 (unchanged), Haihua's was 2906 (unchanged), Lutai's increased by 62.5 to 2875 with a daily increase of 2.2%, and Hengtong's was 2781 (unchanged). In other regions, Jiangsu Xinyu's was 3125 (unchanged), Jiangsu Jinqiao's was 2775 (unchanged), Zhejiang Zhenyang's was 3419 (unchanged), and Shaanxi Beiyuan's was 3600 (unchanged). For 50% caustic soda, Jinling's price was 2620 (unchanged), Lutai's increased by 40 to 2760 with a daily increase of 1.5%, and Beiyuan's was 3420 (unchanged) [5]. Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, flake caustic soda prices in different regions remained unchanged. In Shandong, it was 3400; in North China, it was 3564; in Southwest China, it was 3590; in Central China, it was 3540; in East China, it was 3590; in Northwest China, it was 3200 [6]. Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, most caustic soda grade/regional spreads remained unchanged. Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was - 68 (unchanged); Jiangsu 49% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was 13 (unchanged); Jiangsu 48% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda was 94 (unchanged); Northwest 99% caustic soda - 50% caustic soda was 382 (unchanged); Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was - 6 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Jiangsu - Shandong) was 137 (unchanged), and 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) increased by 10 to 430 [6]. Seasonal Patterns of Caustic Soda Futures Spreads and Basis - The document provides seasonal charts of caustic soda futures spreads (09 - 11, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 09 - 01) and basis (09 - contract and 01 - contract in Shandong) over different years (2023, 2024, 2025) [6][7][8].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The core contradictions include the normalization of auctions, with low - price auction grains impacting the supply and price system in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is a lack of short - term bullish support factors, and the expected mid - term demand improvement is less than the pressure from the new season's listing. The concentration of short positions in the November contract has increased, showing a clear bearish attitude [3]. - Bullish factors are that the bottom - level remaining grain is almost exhausted, and the inventory clearance of traders is relatively small, which restricts the price decline. Also, the gradually recovering concentrated consumption scenarios are expected to boost the edible consumption demand [5]. - Bearish factors are the expected improvement in the quality and yield of new - season soybeans, which will lead to a concentrated supply increase and put continuous pressure on prices. Low - price auction grains are impacting the price system of old - season commercial grains, and the normalization of auctions continuously supplements market supply. Additionally, when the futures price rebounds, long - side positions are reduced, and some short - side seats continue to increase short positions [5]. 2. Price Data - From August 28 to August 29, 2025, the closing prices of most soybean contracts increased, with the November contract rising from 3927 to 3945 (up 18, or 0.46%), the January contract rising from 3931 to 3948 (up 17, or 0.43%), the March contract rising from 3937 to 3950 (up 13, or 0.33%), the May contract rising from 3980 to 3995 (up 15, or 0.38%), and the July contract rising from 3984 to 3999 (up 15, or 0.38%). The September contract decreased from 4092 to 4080 (down 12, or - 0.29%) [4]. 3. Risk Strategies - **Inventory Management for Long Positions** - For planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure and price suppression, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean futures (contract A2511), with a short - side position ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 4000 - 4050 [2]. - When there is a large - scale listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price, with a selling ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 50 - 60 [2]. - **Procurement Management for Short Positions** - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, since the probability of price decline is relatively large, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider contracts A2603 and A2605, with a long - side position, and wait for the autumn price guidance [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows no better - than - expected performance during the peak season. In the short term, it mainly follows cost fluctuations. The supply side remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, with the overall fundamentals weakening month - on - month. In the medium - to - long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, but there will still be a lot of rainfall in stages. The reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not been further expanded, so South China remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past three years [1]. - As of August 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3510 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton from a week ago), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton from a week ago), the North China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, unchanged from a week ago), and the South China spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton from a week ago) [7]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short sell the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 25% in the range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot positions can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply side: Stable [2]. - Demand side: Affected by rainfall and capital shortages, demand cannot be effectively released, with weak performance during the peak season. However, it is expected to improve in the medium - to - long term as construction conditions get better in autumn [2]. - Cost side: After the meeting between US and Russian leaders and OPEC's production increase, the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost has been alleviated [2]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors: Small pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low start - up rate with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of over - capacity reduction [6]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the short - term drag on demand by the rainy season in the South, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate driven by the consumption tax reform in Shandong [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1043 points on August 28, 2025, up 1.36% week-on-week and 14.48% year-on-year, with the increase widening [2]. - As of the week of August 22, the shipping volume showed a pattern of "three increases and one decrease." The shipping volume from the US increased by 54.34%, Russia by 0.27%, the UAE by 10%, and Saudi Arabia decreased by 14.1% [2]. - As of August 27, the passage volume of crude oil vessels in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf regions increased significantly [2]. - The significant increase in crude oil shipping volume from the US, Russia, and the UAE last week supported the rise of the BDTI freight rate index. The substantial increase in the passage volume of oil tankers in major seas this week indicates a significant month-on-month increase in crude oil shipping volume from the Middle East, supporting the widening increase of the BDTI freight rate index [2]. - An important event to watch is the Fed's interest rate cut expectation [2]. Group 2: BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of August 28, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1043 points, up 1.36% week-on-week and 14.48% year-on-year [2]. - From a seasonal perspective, the freight rate remained stable and increased this week, showing a gap compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Oil Tanker Shipping Distance - In the 32nd week of 2025 (as of August 15), the shipping distances of VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax tankers all decreased month-on-month, with the VLCC showing the largest decrease. Specifically, the shipping distances of VLCC, Aframax, and Suezmax tankers decreased by 21.47%, 8.04%, and 8.01% respectively month-on-month. Compared with the same period last year, the shipping distances of all three tanker types decreased, with the VLCC showing the largest decrease [4]. Group 4: Oil Tanker Traffic in Red Sea and Aden Gulf - From August 23 - 27, 2025, the total passage volume of oil tankers in the Red Sea increased. The average passage volume of oil tankers in the Red Sea was 798, an increase of 7 compared to the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers decreased by 4, and the number of refined oil tankers increased by 11. Among the passing crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC decreased by 1, Suezmax by 4, and Aframax by 7 [6]. - The passage volume of oil tankers in the Aden Gulf increased significantly. The passage volume of oil tankers in the Aden Gulf was 117, an increase of 16 compared to the previous week. Among them, the passage volume of crude oil tankers increased by 4, and refined oil tankers by 8. Among the passing crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC increased by 1, Suezmax remained unchanged, and Aframax increased by 12 [6]. Group 5: Oil Tanker Capacity - As of August 22, 2025, 9426 oil tankers were dismantled, an increase of 1 week-on-week and 80 year-on-year; the number of effective vessels was 18331, an increase of 11 week-on-week and 447 year-on-year; the vessel delivery volume was 215, a decrease of 2 week-on-week and an increase of 98 year-on-year; the number of vessel orders was 1332, a decrease of 10 week-on-week and an increase of 108 year-on-year; the number of vessels under construction was 228, an increase of 12 week-on-week and 84 year-on-year [8]. - As of August 23, the port capacity of VLCC and Aframax tankers increased month-on-month, while that of Suezmax tankers decreased. Specifically, the number of docked VLCC tankers was 2381, an increase of 93; the number of docked Aframax tankers was 2846, an increase of 208; the number of docked Suezmax tankers was 2064, a decrease of 57 [8]. Group 6: Crude Oil Shipping Data Tracking - As of August 22, 2025, the crude oil shipping volume from the US, Russia, and the UAE increased month-on-month, while that from Saudi Arabia decreased. Specifically, the weekly US crude oil shipping volume rebounded significantly by 54.34%, Russia's by 0.27%, Saudi Arabia's decreased by 14.1%, and the UAE's rebounded by 10% [10]. - In terms of shipping tanker types for US crude oil, the shipping demand for VLCC increased by 91.79% month-on-month, Aframax by 43.19%, and Suezmax by 15.61% [10]. - For Russian crude oil, the shipping demand for Aframax increased by 17.53% month-on-month, while that for Suezmax decreased by 14.32% [10]. - For Saudi crude oil, the shipping demand for VLCC decreased by 11.87% month-on-month, Aframax decreased significantly by 25.59%, and Suezmax decreased significantly by 50% [10]. - For UAE crude oil, the shipping demand for VLCC increased by 15.65% month-on-month, Aframax increased significantly by 247.58%, and Suezmax decreased by 15.99% [10]. - The total crude oil shipping volume from other countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased significantly this week, mainly due to the month-on-month increase in shipping volume from Nigeria, Kuwait, and Iran [28]. Group 7: Crude Oil Arrival - This week, the arrival volume of crude oil in India and the Netherlands increased month-on-month, with the arrival volume in the Netherlands higher than the same period last year. The arrival volume of crude oil in China was lower than the same period last year [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the financial performance of CITIC Securities' subsidiary, CITIC Futures, for the first half of 2025 [1] - As of June 30, 2025, CITIC Futures has a registered capital of 7.6 billion yuan, total assets of approximately 209.335 billion yuan, and net assets of about 14.526 billion yuan [1] - In the first half of 2025, CITIC Futures reported an operating income of approximately 1.832 billion yuan and a net profit of around 502 million yuan [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The BDI shipping market started to pick up this week. The increase in BCI freight index from a decline to a rise, along with the continuous rise of BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices, contributed to this trend. The BPI freight index had a weekly increase of over 12% [1]. - The surge in agricultural product shipments, especially from Brazil, led to a significant increase in the demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels. In contrast, the shipments of industrial products such as coal and iron ore showed a slight decline [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Summary - The BDI shipping market showed signs of recovery this week. The BCI freight index reversed from a decline to an increase, while the BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices continued to rise. The BPI freight index had a weekly increase of over 12% [1]. - Agricultural product shipments, particularly corn, wheat, and soybeans, increased significantly, driving up the demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels. Industrial product shipments, such as coal and iron ore, decreased slightly [1]. 2. Spot Index Review 2.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 27, all components of the BDI composite freight index and its sub - ship type freight indices increased week - on - week. The BPI freight index had the largest increase, exceeding 12%. Specifically, the BDI composite index closed at 2046 points, up 6.18% week - on - week; the BCI index was at 2989 points, up 4.27%; the BPI index reached 1874 points, up 12.55%; the BSI index was 1447 points, up 4.25%; and the BHSI index was 745 points, up 4.34% [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 27, most of the FDI composite index and sub - ship type charter rates increased. However, the freight rate of the Australia - Qingdao route in the FDI Capesize vessel charter rate index decreased on a daily basis. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1375.16 points, up 0.43% month - on - month; the FDI charter rate index was at 1706.73 points, up 0.79% [8]. 3. Dry Bulk Shipment Tracking 3.1 Ship Usage Quantity of Shipping Countries on the Day - On August 28, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 59 ships, Russia used 11 ships, Argentina used 16 ships, and Australia used 5 ships. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 52 ships, Guinea used 28 ships, Indonesia used 42 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 16 ships, Brazil used 9 ships, and the United States used 10 ships [16][17]. 3.2 Shipment Volume and Ship Usage Analysis on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 29 ships were used for corn, 23 for wheat, 22 for soybeans, 13 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. For industrial product shipments, 106 ships were used for coal, 67 for iron ore, and 17 for other dry goods. By ship type, the largest number of Ultra - Panamax ships (49) were required for agricultural product shipments, followed by 19 Ultra - Handysize ships and 20 Handysize ships. For industrial product shipments, the largest number of Capesize ships (77) were needed, followed by 64 Ultra - Panamax ships and 62 Ultra - Handysize ships [18]. 4. Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports - This week, the number of ships at Chinese and Indonesian ports continued to increase, while the number of ships at Australian ports continued to decrease significantly on a weekly basis. Adjusted data showed that from August 1 to August 27, "one port decreased and four ports increased." Except for a decrease of 9 ships at Chinese ports, the number of ships at other ports was expected to increase. The number of ships at six Australian ports increased by 3, at six Indonesian ports by 2, at five Brazilian ports by 8, and at one South African port by 1 [18][19]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 27, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $38 per ton. On August 28, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3975.84 yuan per ton. - On August 26, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $28,068 per day. On August 27, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $119.95 per thousand tons. - On August 26, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,402 per day. On August 27, the latest quote for the thermal coal arrival price was 551.71 yuan per ton. - On August 27, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 727.6 points. On August 29, the quote for 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On August 27, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.12% to 781.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.52% to 9,305 yuan/kg [4] - The event of Trump dismissing Fed Governor Cook has further fermented. Political pressure has strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, thus supporting precious metal prices. On the other hand, the official implementation of a 50% tariff on India by the US and Trump's tariff remarks have slightly increased market risk aversion. However, Trump's statement that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, along with strong US core durable goods order data in July, highlighting US economic resilience and providing support for the US dollar index, have limited the upside space for gold prices. In the short term, precious metal prices are still supported. For gold, it is recommended to hold long positions or go long on pullbacks. For silver, it is expected to follow gold in the short term, but with signs of cooling in the stock market and commodities, short - term fluctuations need attention, and the upside height and duration in the medium term should be treated with caution [4] - In the medium - to - long term, due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified large - scale games, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 27, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,376.92/ounce, London silver spot was at $38.43/ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,426.60/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $38.47/ounce. Compared with August 26, the price of London gold remained unchanged, London silver fell 0.7%, COMEX gold rose 0.1%, and COMEX silver fell 0.6%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed corresponding changes, with AU2510 remaining unchanged, AG2510 falling 0.5%, AU (T + D) remaining unchanged, and AG (T + D) falling 0.6% [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On August 27, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 35 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 6.00 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg. Compared with August 26, the price spreads showed different degrees of change, with the gold TD - SHFE active price spread falling 7.6%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread rising 12.9%, the gold internal - external price spread rising 21.4%, and the silver internal - external price spread falling 4.7%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 83.95, and the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 89.08, both showing slight increases [3] Position Data - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 959.92 tons, up 0.15% from August 25. The silver ETF - SLV held 15,274.6947 tons, down 0.09% [3] - **Non - commercial Positions in COMEX**: As of August 19, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 4.46%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 6.92%, and the net long positions decreased by 7.36%. For COMEX silver, the non - commercial long positions increased by 2.79%, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.96%, and the net long positions increased by 5.15% [3] Inventory Data - On August 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 37,503 kg, unchanged from August 26. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,165,498 kg, up 3.39% from August 26. The COMEX gold inventory on August 26 was 38,578,730 troy ounces, up 0.04% from August 25, and the COMEX silver inventory on August 26 was 508,778,300 troy ounces, unchanged from August 25 [3] Related Market Data - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: From August 25 to August 27, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.11%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 3.22%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.19%, the VIX fell 0.47%, the NYMEX crude oil price rose 0.41%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.21% [4] Market News and Analysis - Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, who refused to resign and will sue. The Fed stated that only "just cause" can remove a governor and will abide by court decisions. The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed [4] - In July, the preliminary monthly change in US durable goods orders was - 2.8%, a second consecutive month of negative growth. However, the preliminary monthly change in core durable goods orders excluding aircraft and non - defense capital goods increased by 1.1%, exceeding expectations and indicating US economic resilience [4] - Trump said that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on India officially took effect on August 27 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Pro Farmer report indicates that the potential of US soybean crops is relatively stable, with supply - side pressure remaining. However, the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price floor of US soybeans. For rapeseed - related products in the domestic market, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals eases supply pressure, and the peak season of aquaculture boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed further weaken long - term supply. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. For rapeseed oil, in the short term, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient domestic vegetable oil supply restrain market prices. However, the low oil mill operating rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply - side pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9853 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2501 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 654.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 4812 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The rapeseed oil 1 - 5 monthly spread is 170 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the rapeseed meal 1 - 5 monthly spread is 55 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 8620 lots, up 3218 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are - 15264 lots, down 4314 lots. The main contract positions for rapeseed oil are 282897 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 419022 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3887 sheets, up 400 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 7710 sheets, down 277 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10085 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 8147.66 yuan/ton, down 43.56 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Spreads and ratios: The oil - meal ratio is 3.78, down 0.02. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 199 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 550 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, up 0.85 percentage points. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 632 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.5 tons, up 0.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.1 tons, down 0.45 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 53.6 tons, down 0.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 32.86 tons, down 0.73 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.9 tons, down 0.1 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 21.4 tons, down 0.4 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 2.81 tons, down 0.95 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 tons, down 0.45 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons. The monthly social consumer goods retail total for catering revenue is 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.08%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.08%, up 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.16%, down 2.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.17%, down 2.15 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 32.42%, up 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.71%, down 0.4 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 17.48%, down 2.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 14.4%, down 0.45 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Futures market news: On August 26, ICE rapeseed futures weakened but were still relatively strong compared to the soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 654.80 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 4.60 Canadian dollars to settle at 666.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - Crop forecast news: The Pro Farmer report predicts that the average yield of US soybeans will reach a record - high 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total production of 4.246 billion bushels, showing relatively stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. - Policy and trade news: AAFC estimates that Canada's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season will be 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from the July estimate, and the carry - over inventory will double. China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may affect its exports and put pressure on Canadian rapeseed prices. There are signals of easing relations between China and Canada, and news of Sino - US soybean trade negotiations may affect domestic meal prices [2].