1. Market Index and Commodity Price Tracking 1.1 Macro Indicators - The Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 0.703% to 44,693.91, the Nasdaq Index rose by 0.180% to 21,057.96, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.070% to 6,363.35. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.506% to 25,667.18 [2]. - SHIBOR overnight increased by 19.605% to 1.64, the US Dollar Index decreased by 0.033% to 97.46, and the US Dollar to RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. 1.2 International Commodity Futures - COMEX gold decreased by 0.771% to 3,371.30, COMEX silver decreased by 0.595% to 39.29, and LME copper decreased by 0.795% to 9,854.50 [2]. 1.3 Domestic Commodity Futures - In the metal sector, domestic gold decreased by 0.085% to 778.08, silver decreased by 0.181% to 9,369.00, and copper decreased by 0.751% to 79,290.00 [2]. - In the chemical sector, coking coal increased by 2.837% to 1,232.50, natural rubber increased by 1.050% to 15,405.00, and plastic increased by 0.853% to 7,448.00 [4]. - In the agricultural product sector, yellow soybean No. 1 decreased by 0.071% to 4,221.00, and soybean meal increased by 0.132% to 3,029.00 [4]. 2. Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony of the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and deliver a speech on July 26 [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling and export, including establishing a joint law - enforcement coordination center for dual - use item export control [6]. - President Xi Jinping put forward three proposals for the future development of China - EU relations during a meeting with European leaders [6]. - The central bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued an opinion to strengthen financial services for rural reform and promote rural revitalization [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has basically allocated 735 billion yuan of central budgetary investment in 2025, focusing on modern industrial systems, infrastructure, urbanization, and rural revitalization [6]. - The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on July 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan this month [7]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the national basic medical insurance participation rate remained stable at around 95%, and the cumulative balance of the medical insurance pooling fund reached 3.86 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market prices are stable, with a weak supply - demand pattern. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly but maintain a downward trend [10]. - The trading volume of edible oils increased significantly on July 10. The market is expected to fluctuate in the near future [10]. - The sugar futures market is in a state of long - short confrontation. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,850 - 5,900 yuan/ton. High - selling and low - buying within the range are recommended [10]. - Corn futures prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a range - oscillation approach and pay attention to the breakthrough of the 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton range [10]. - The supply of live pigs exceeds demand, and short - term price increases lack sustainability. After the futures price repairs the basis, it will maintain an oscillatory trend [12]. - Egg prices are stable. Upstream inventory is low, and downstream demand is strong. However, the futures market is under selling pressure due to the approaching delivery month [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - The price of caustic soda has increased significantly this week. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [12]. - The urea market shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - policy impacts and the progress of autumn fertilizers [12]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level due to tight supply, weak demand, and uncertain macro - policies [13]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to increased supply, off - season consumption, and policy sentiment [13]. - Alumina prices have rebounded significantly this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against increased short - term fluctuations [13]. - The supply - demand contradiction of steel products is not prominent. Steel prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment and raw material trends [13]. - The performance of ferroalloys was weak on Thursday. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to wait for important meetings and policy implementation [14]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are maintaining a strong pattern in the short term [14]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures has significantly increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of breaking through the 76,000 yuan/ton key pressure level [14]. 3.4 Options and Finance - On July 24, the three major A - share indexes rose collectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC, and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [14][15][16]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options have changed. Trend investors can focus on inter - variety strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [17][18].

周四贵金属市场延续调整回落，美指收涨，10Y美债收益率亦回升则利空贵金属估值。周边欧美股市涨跌不 一，中国股市走强，比特币震荡，原油上涨，南华有色金属指数亦偏强，国内股市近期偏强走势已导致本周 国内黄金ETF流出和短期重新配置。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3371.3美元/盎司，-0.77%；美白银 2509合约收报于39.285美元/盎司，-0.55%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约778.74元/克，-1.6%；SHFE白银 2510合约收9386元/千克，-0.83%。消息面，美联储"装修门"升级，特朗普首次"上门"施压降息，但解 雇鲍威尔警报暂停，贝森特指有其他风险。欧洲央行周四如期维持主要利率在2%不变，以等待欧盟与美国贸 易关系走向的更多明确信号，市场仍押注今年稍晚还有至少一次降息。会后拉加德表示央行处于"观望模 式"，市场明显下调9月降息预期。关税贸易战方面，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆表示，墨西哥努力避免8月美国关税 提高。墨西哥向美国提出了减少贸易逆差的计划。如有必要，将与特朗普进行交谈。数据方面，美国7月标普 全球制造业PMI初值 49.5，预期52.7，前值52.9；美国7月标普全球服务业PM ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean market has seen a significant decline due to the soybean meal feed reduction substitution plan. The far-month basis quote has weakened, and the near-month warehouse receipt pressure has returned, leading to a correction of the basis. The rapeseed market has followed the decline of soybean meal. In the short term, the contradictions have returned to reality, and the far-month supply-demand gap remains the key focus for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino-US peace talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment in the far month due to weather speculation, and the Brazilian export premium supporting the far-month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors include the supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to focus on the departure of near-month long funds for the return of the futures and spot markets, the expected soybean arrivals showing a gap after December, and the impact of the recent Indian rapeseed issue on the upward momentum, along with the lack of elasticity in the market's repeated pricing of the potential Sino-Canadian and Sino-Australian talks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Futures Price - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal futures contracts are as follows: M01 is 3059, down 57 (-1.83%); M05 is 2753, down 16 (-0.58%); M09 is 3025, down 70 (-2.26%). For rapeseed meal futures, RM01 is 2412, down 32 (-1.31%); RM05 is 2371, down 12 (-0.5%); RM09 is 2682, down 76 (-2.76%). CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1022.5 with no change, and the offshore RMB closed at 7.1518, down 0.0174 (-0.24%) [7][9]. 3.4 Spread - The spreads and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: M01 - 05 is 347, up 3; M05 - 09 is -326, unchanged; M09 - 01 is -21, down 3; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 1; RM05 - 09 is -375, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 314, up 15. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860, down 60, and the basis is -175, up 11. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2630, down 32, and the basis is -128, down 54. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 290, up 52, and the futures spread is 337, down 13 [10]. 3.5 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 0.004 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3938.83 yuan/ton, up 12.66 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 21.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is -843.5845 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7.0881 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, up 40.4599 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 0.9124 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 147 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 220 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 154 yuan/ton from the previous week [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to decline slightly, maintaining a narrow sideways range with a slightly lower fluctuation center. During the overnight US trading session, crude oil rebounded from its intraday low, mainly influenced by a report from a British media outlet that the US and Europe are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement. Driven by this news, US stocks and crude oil strengthened simultaneously. While US stocks reached new highs, crude oil also gradually recovered its intraday losses. In the recent adjustment process, long positions in overseas crude oil have significantly decreased, and market bullish sentiment has continued to cool. Over the past two weeks, crude oil has shown characteristics of declining on increased volume. Although the overall trading volume remains low, when trading volume moderately increases, daily candles close lower, indicating that in the current market's long - short game, even with limited intensity, prices tend to decline, presenting an overall weakening and volatile pattern. On the support side, the lower support mainly relies on the logic of the consumption peak season, but the support from the demand side to the market has weakened both in terms of time and space, and there are no new positive drivers in the market. In this context, if there are no new positive factors, crude oil prices may turn downward [3] Market Dynamics US Inventory Data - For the week ending July 18, 2025, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.859 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 300,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 213,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 908,000 barrels and a previous increase of 3.399 million barrels. Refined oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.135 million barrels and a previous increase of 4.173 million barrels. Crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day. Refinery utilization rate was 95.5%, compared with an expected 93.4% and a previous 93.9%. Last week, US crude oil inventory continued to decline for the second consecutive week, effectively alleviating previous market concerns about inventory accumulation. US crude oil inventory remains at the bottom of the five - year range, providing strong support for oil prices. Meanwhile, US gasoline and diesel inventories showed a divergent trend: gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, while diesel inventory increased by 455,000 barrels. Although diesel inventory increased slightly, due to the relatively low overall inventory base, there will be no obvious pressure to build inventory in the short term [4] International Trade and Supply - related News - The EU and the US are on the verge of reaching a trade agreement that will impose a 15% tariff on European imported goods, similar to the agreement Trump reached with Japan this week [5] - In May, Saudi Arabia's non - oil exports increased by 6.0%, while crude oil export value decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and commodity exports decreased by 14.0% year - on - year [5] - Due to changes in port entry regulations, oil transportation in Russia's Black Sea has been disrupted. Oil loading at two major Russian Black Sea terminals has been suspended due to paperwork related to new port - entry safety regulations. An industry insider expects the situation to be resolved within one or two days [5] Geopolitical News - Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran will respond to the activation of the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism. On July 23 local time, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharehabadi stated that European countries (UK, France, Germany) should not coordinate positions with the US. Iran will respond to the activation of the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism and is still discussing whether to withdraw from the "Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons". He also mentioned that Iran has agreed to an International Atomic Energy Agency technical delegation visiting Tehran in the next two to three weeks [6] Global Crude Oil盘面 Price and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 07 - 24 | 2025 - 07 - 23 | 2025 - 07 - 17 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 68.8 | 68.51 | 69.52 | 0.29 | - 0.72 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 64.79 | 64.49 | 66.23 | 0.3 | - 1.44 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 498.8 | 498.1 | 502.9 | 0.7 | - 4.1 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 67.85 | 67.61 | 66.89 | 0.24 | 0.96 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 70.7 | 70.72 | 69.99 | - 0.02 | 0.71 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 71.36 | 70.89 | 69.81 | 0.47 | 1.55 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 0.66 | 0.98 | 1.63 | - 0.32 | - 0.97 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.68 | 0.82 | 0.98 | - 0.14 | - 0.3 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 1.72 | 1.98 | 0.98 | - 0.26 | 0.74 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.94 | 0.03 | - 0.25 | | SC Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 5.8 | 7 | 11.1 | - 1.2 | - 5.3 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 1.9378 | 1.877 | 3.7858 | 0.0608 | - 1.848 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.1022 | - 1.033 | 0.6158 | - 0.0692 | - 1.718 | [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [N/A] 2. Core View of the Report - The stock indices closed higher today. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, after yesterday's adjustment, were relatively strong and hit new highs for the year. The trading volume in the two markets decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level for the year. Affected by the news that Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18 this year, related concept sectors such as free trade zones and duty - free shops led the gains. In terms of futures basis, the basis of each variety contract increased today, and the open interest also increased, indicating that bulls entered the market. With the current news being relatively calm and the market sentiment remaining optimistic, it is expected that the stock indices will continue to operate strongly [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock indices closed higher today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up. In terms of capital, the trading volume in the two markets decreased by 1.9894 billion yuan. The stock index futures all rose with increased volume [4] Important Information - Approved by the Party Central Committee, Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18 this year. A series of policy measures will be implemented on the day of the full - island customs closure. Among them, the proportion of the tax items of "zero - tariff" goods imported from the "first line" will be increased from 21% to 74%. These goods can circulate within the island among beneficiaries without import tax, and those with a processing value - added of 30% can be sold to the Chinese mainland duty - free [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.76 | 0.50 | 1.72 | 1.84 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.4133 | 5.3842 | 9.5468 | 20.5106 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 1.6976 | - 1.3034 | - 0.9753 | - 0.6634 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.1368 | 10.0891 | 22.9789 | 33.8313 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.2311 | 0.0135 | 0.1553 | 0.0035 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.21 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.80 | | Trading volume in the two markets (100 million yuan) | 18447.06 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | - 198.94 | [8]

| | | | | 2025年7月24日30年期国债期货主力合约2509持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | | 会员 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 53,118 | 1,867 | 中信期货 | 20,626 | 506 | 东证期货 | 13,957 | 897 | | 2 | 东证期货 | 37,597 | -1,453 | 国泰君安 | 13,871 | 571 | 国泰君安 | 13,490 | 420 | | 3 | 海通期货 | 30,529 | -5,405 | 东证期货 | 8,309 | -646 | 中信期货 | 12,433 | 224 | | 4 | 国泰君安 | 26,865 | -1,264 | 国等朗总 | 7,618 | 1,330 | 银河期货 | 7,974 | 349 | | 5 | 中信建投 | 11,756 | 3,629 | 华泰期货 | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the trading performance of coking coal futures, with the main contract 2509 closing at a rise of 7.97% and a trading volume of 2.8834 million lots as of July 24 [1][2] - The total trading volume for all coking coal contracts reached 4.0812 million lots, an increase of 363,700 lots compared to the previous day [1][3] - The top 20 positions in the main contract show a net short position with a difference of 7,268 lots, indicating a bearish sentiment among major traders [1][4] Group 2 - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan with a total holding of 62,208 lots, CITIC Futures with 54,296 lots, and Yong'an Futures with 35,504 lots [1][3] - The top three short positions are also led by Guotai Junan with 64,687 lots, followed closely by CITIC Futures with 64,503 lots, and Galaxy Futures with 31,782 lots [1][3] - The increase in long positions is primarily driven by Guotai Junan, Zheshang Futures, and Dongzheng Futures, while the decrease in long positions is seen in Fangzheng Futures, Galaxy Futures, and Everbright Futures [1][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillating trend due to weak combustion demand. Although the chemical demand outlook is strong, the decline in oil prices and international LPG prices has led to a downward trend in the PG market. The cheapest deliverable is the East China civil LPG at 4486. The basis has strengthened to 433 (+93), and the inter - month reverse spread has strengthened. The inventory at ports has increased under high unloading volumes, while the plant inventory has slightly increased. Chemical demand is strong, with the PDH operating rate rising significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and the alkylation operating rate increasing. However, the MTBE export profit has declined [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From July 17 to July 23, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed different changes. The daily change on July 23 showed that South China LPG increased by 20, propane CFR South China increased by 10, propane CIF Japan increased by 19, MB propane spot increased by 2, and CP forecast contract price increased by 18, while other prices remained unchanged. The basis increased by 2 [1]. - The futures market showed that the 08 - 09 spread was 41, and the 08 - 10 spread was - 383. The US - Far East arbitrage window was open. The cheapest deliverable on Wednesday was the East China civil LPG at 4443. FEI and CP continued to decline, PP dropped significantly, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved, with the CP production cost lower than that of FEI [1]. Weekly Viewpoints - **Market Trend**: The PG futures market oscillated downward. Although the chemical demand outlook is strong, the decline in oil prices and international LPG prices has led to a weakening of the market. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillating trend due to weak combustion demand [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened to 433 (+93), and the inter - month reverse spread strengthened due to weak spot prices and the shift of the main contract. The number of registered warrants increased by 500 to 8804 hands, with 500 hands added by Qingdao Yunda [1]. - **Regional Spreads and Arbitrage**: The PG - CP spread reached 27 (+8), the FEI - MB spread reached 163 (+6), the FEI - CP spread reached - 5.5 (+9.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was open. The FEI - MOPJ spread moved up to - 43.75 (-1.75) [1]. - **Profit and Inventory**: The PDH profit improved, while the MTBE export profit declined. The port inventory increased significantly, and the plant inventory increased slightly. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98% mainly due to reduced supply in South China, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China [1]. - **Chemical Demand**: Chemical demand is strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct) due to the restart of some plants. The alkylation operating rate increased, and the MTBE export orders increased [1].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tin price increase on Monday was due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamental situation of tin itself remained unchanged. In the short term, considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese tin ore and the lack of signs of improvement in downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [3] Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,540 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract (75% hedging ratio, around 275,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract (50% hedging ratio, around 230,000 yuan/ton) and sell put options (25% hedging ratio, when volatility is appropriate) [2] Market Factors Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, Burmese复产 falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [7] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals, the start of Burmese tin ore flowing into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5][7] Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 268,540 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 34,750 US dollars/ton, up 830 US dollars or 2.45% [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 268,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.01%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 256,900 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan or 2.11% [11] Import and Processing - The latest tin import loss is 16,361.68 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 569.93 yuan or - 3.37%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change [16] Inventory Data Daily Inventory - The total Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,807 tons, up 16 tons or 0.24%. The LME tin total inventory is 1,715 tons, down 170 tons or - 9.02% [20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, the double - coke futures have strongly rebounded, speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, spot liquidity has tightened, coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. This week, iron ore has strongly rebounded, squeezing immediate steel profits, but steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little willingness to cut pig iron production, and the procurement demand for coal and coke is strong. Speculative and rigid demand support the double - coke futures and spot prices. The market's expectation of Supply - side 2.0 is intensifying, and the short - term futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long term, the sharp rise in furnace materials threatens steel mills' profitability, high pig iron production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined, and inventory accumulation is accelerating. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity of coal and coke [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coke Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1030 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1350 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. Double - Coke Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month spread, with no spot exposure, it is recommended to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), sell at the suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 23, 2025, compared with July 22, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of rebar remained unchanged at 86,534 tons; hot - rolled coil decreased by 598 tons to 58,951 tons; iron ore decreased by 200 lots to 3,100 lots; coking coal decreased by 500 lots to 0 lots; coke remained unchanged at 760 lots; ferrosilicon remained unchanged at 22,150 sheets; and ferromanganese decreased by 523 sheets to 77,972 sheets [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100, and it is difficult to reduce pig iron production in the off - season. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Coking plants are suffering serious losses and there is still an expectation of price increases [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production beyond expectations. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent port - arrival pressure is increasing [6]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - A large amount of data on coal and coke futures and spot prices, including basis, cost, price differences between different contracts, and various profit data, are provided. For example, on July 23, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian No. 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 128.0 yuan/ton; the immediate coking profit was - 19 yuan/ton [6][7][8]