每经编辑｜段炼 金银铜价，全部爆了！ 12月24日，现货黄金继续拉升，盘中最高触及4525.70美元/盎司，再创历史新高，截至发稿稍有回落，报4498.36美元/盎司。数据显示，现货黄金价格年 内上涨了约1880美元/盎司，涨幅超过70%。 国内金饰价格应声上涨，24日， 周生生金饰克价为1411元，较前一日上涨8元，较22日上涨44元 ；老凤祥为1406元，较前一日上涨7元，较22日上涨41 元；周大福为1410元，较前一日上涨7元，较22日上涨42元。 同日，现货白银价格继续冲高，盘中一度达到72.68美元/盎司，创历史新高，截至发稿涨报72.06美元/盎司。 此外，受全球多个矿山停产导致的供应短缺以及特朗普政府潜在关税政策影响，伦敦铜价周二盘中首次突破每吨12000美元大关，创下历史新高。 但不会像今年幅度这么大 国联期货分析认为，2026年贵金属牛市将持续进阶，核心由"金融属性+工业需求"双引擎驱动且品种分化显著：黄金依托全球宽财政周期下的债务与货币 信用担忧、美联储"前稳后快"的降息周期、央行购金的长期结构性支撑及仍存增量空间的投资需求，维持震荡上行态势，成为对冲全球财政与货币体系不 确定性的"压舱 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad increase, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.16%, the S&P 500 by 0.46%, and the Nasdaq by 0.57% [2] - Precious metals such as gold, silver, and copper reached historical highs, with gold prices nearing $4500 [2] - Oil prices continued to rise for the third consecutive trading day [2] Market Sentiment - The current market rally is characterized by a lack of excitement, described as "nobody opposing" rather than "everyone agreeing" [3] - The prevailing sentiment is that no news is good news, typical for year-end market behavior [3] - The simultaneous rise of gold, silver, and copper is unusual and indicates a complex market state rather than a clear directional signal [3] Asset Pricing Dynamics - Gold is priced for uncertainty, silver for liquidity and speculation, and copper for real demand and economic cycles [4] - The concurrent historical highs of these metals suggest the market is betting on conflicting global scenarios: potential improvement (copper), chaos (gold), and volatility (silver) [4] Bitcoin and Market Volatility - Bitcoin's failure to keep pace with other assets is noteworthy, as it signals market concerns about potential rule changes [4] - The VIX index has dropped significantly, reaching a yearly low, indicating short-term traders are "selling fear," while the steep VIX curve suggests long-term investors are "buying uncertainty" [4] Market Outlook - The current calm in the market is seen as a trade-off for future price movements, indicating that while short-term trends may remain upward, the rationale behind the rally is becoming increasingly difficult to articulate [4]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 记者丨叶映橙，见习记者林健民 编辑丨谢珍 12月24日，现货白银价格站上72美元/盎司关口，再次刷新历史最高纪录，近一个月银价已飙涨超 45%。 与黄金同期相对温和的涨幅相比，白银展现出更强的波动性和弹性。在经历11月中下旬的短暂回调筑底 后，银价强势拉升，接连突破50美元、60美元、70美元等重要整数心理关口，成为资本市场瞩目的焦 点。 从基本面上看，国联期货分析师王娜表示，2025年全球矿产白银预计维持在8.13亿盎司，与上年同期基 本持平，因为北美和俄罗斯产量的增长被南美、澳大利亚和印度尼西亚产量下滑所抵消。矿产供应停滞 是核心问题，且因结构性约束难因银价创新高而短期内改善。 此外，王娜指出，2025年，伦敦、纽约、上海等主要市场的库存均处在多年低位。全球偏低的库存导致 白银在供需缺口的背景下可即时交易的现货/仓单数量有限，少量资金介入即可加剧白银市场流动性枯 竭，白银价格弹性显著提升，容易触发挤仓行情。 招商期货认为，需求中光伏用银比重依旧较大，成为银价需求最大的组成部分；实物投资、珠宝首饰、 电子需求紧随其后，使得白银连续多年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in silver prices, which have reached a historical high of over $72 per ounce, marking an increase of over 45% in the past month, driven by supply constraints and strong demand in various sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Silver Price Movement - On December 24, the spot silver price surpassed $72 per ounce, setting a new historical record, with a monthly increase exceeding 45% [1]. - Silver has shown greater volatility and elasticity compared to gold, breaking through key psychological price levels of $50, $60, and $70 [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global silver production is expected to remain stable at 813 million ounces in 2025, with increases in North America and Russia offset by declines in South America, Australia, and Indonesia [3]. - Major markets like London, New York, and Shanghai are experiencing low inventory levels, which, combined with a supply-demand gap, enhances the liquidity and price elasticity of silver [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The demand for silver in photovoltaic applications remains significant, contributing to a continuous supply gap, which is expected to persist into 2026 if alternatives do not materialize [3]. - A number of silver-related stocks have seen substantial price increases, with 11 stocks in the A-share market doubling in price this year, including notable performers like Xingye Yinxin and Zijin Mining [5][6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Short-term trends indicate a strong fluctuation in precious metals, with a long-term upward trend remaining intact, although there are warnings about potential short-term corrections due to rapid price increases [4]. - The silver ETF holdings have shown volatility after a surge, indicating a need to monitor speculative fund flows [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, industrial demand, and valuation corrections, positioning silver as a strong investment option beyond just being a "shadow" of gold [1][5]. Group 1: Silver's Performance - On December 24, silver prices surged by 1,050 yuan per kilogram, averaging 17,405 yuan per kilogram, with a significant increase of 6.84% [1]. - International silver prices reached 72.189 USD per ounce, marking a 1.03% increase and hitting a historical high of 72.701 USD per ounce [1]. - Year-to-date, silver has seen a cumulative increase of 150%, significantly outperforming gold's 72% rise [1]. Group 2: Drivers of Silver's Surge - The surge in silver is driven by three main factors: macroeconomic uncertainty, industrial demand, and valuation recovery [1]. - Global economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations have increased the demand for silver as a dual-purpose asset, serving both as an inflation hedge and an industrial metal [2]. - Industrial demand for silver is growing, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, where each gigawatt of solar capacity requires approximately 10 tons of silver, and in electronics, where silver is essential for components in 5G devices and electric vehicles [2]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The gold-silver ratio has improved from 104:1 to 64:1, indicating that silver has become relatively cheaper compared to gold, attracting more investment [3]. - Historically, when the gold-silver ratio falls below 50:1, silver prices tend to peak, suggesting that there is still room for growth at the current ratio of 64:1 [3]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - While the recent price surge may attract investors, silver's volatility is notably higher than that of gold, with potential for significant price drops [4]. - Silver's liquidity is somewhat lower than gold, which may affect the speed of transactions and lead to price discrepancies in large trades [4]. - Long-term prospects for silver remain strong, supported by ongoing growth in the photovoltaic and electronics industries, which underpin its industrial demand [4]. Conclusion - The current rise in silver prices reflects a genuine reassessment of its industrial value and safe-haven attributes, marking a significant shift in market perception [5].

Group 1 - The global geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the logic of buying gold on dips remains unchanged for next year, with potential pullbacks expected to be around 10%-15% from recent highs [1][4][20] - Factors that could lead to a pullback in gold prices include overly optimistic economic trends and a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, but such pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities [1][4][20] - The copper market is expected to experience a bull narrative in the first half of the year, driven by significant visible inventory in the U.S. and anticipated stockpiling in China post-Spring Festival, rather than economic recovery [4][20] Group 2 - The U.S. market may experience significant volatility next year, which could impact all asset classes, including commodities, presenting potential buying opportunities during downturns [2][24] - The focus for 2026 will be on sectors where supply growth stabilizes after rapid capacity expansion, particularly in the chemical industry, where price responses may lag behind company valuations [16][18] - The long-term outlook suggests that inflation will persist due to rising logistics costs from barrier trade, indicating potential opportunities in commodities [36][37] Group 3 - The influence of the Federal Reserve is expected to weaken, with fiscal policy becoming more dominant, and the dollar's credibility may be at risk, potentially leading to a drop in the dollar index to the 70-80 range [1][5][24] - The AI sector's heavy investment may not guarantee productivity gains, and if the anticipated economic recovery does not materialize, it could lead to systemic valuation declines in traditional industries [5][24][45] - The commodity market is likely to see speculative inventory accumulation when prices drop significantly, increasing the correlation between inventory levels and price movements [41][24] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape is expected to remain competitive, with countries vying for technological and industrial supremacy, which may lead to ongoing tensions [30][31] - China's food security has improved significantly, reducing reliance on imports, which may mitigate the impact of geopolitical threats on agricultural prices [33] - The internationalization of the renminbi is anticipated to accelerate, with potential implications for commodity pricing and trade dynamics [34][36]

12月24日消息，市场早盘窄幅震荡，三大指数一度集体翻绿。板块方面，商业航天板块持续走强，超捷股份、新雷能20cm 涨停；液冷服务器板块震荡走强，方盛股份、欧陆通涨超10%；半导体板块延续涨势，北京君正、德明利领涨；下跌方面，贵 金属板块下挫，山金国际跌幅居前；海南板块回调，中钨高新、海南海药（维权）领跌。总体来看，个股跌多涨少，下跌个股 超3300只。 截至收盘，沪指报3929.25点，涨0.24%；深证成指报13410.05点，涨0.31%；创指报3207.59点，涨0.08%。 盘面上，其他电源设备、军工电子、太赫兹板块涨幅居前，贵金属、乳业、海南板块跌幅居前。 热点板块： 1．商业航天 商业航天概念超二十只股涨停，超捷股份20cm涨停，天银机电涨超12%，神剑股份5连板。 消息面上，据证监会网上办事服务平台披露，近日，蓝箭航天IPO辅导工作正式完成，辅导机构为中金公司。 2．存储芯片 香农芯创、北京君正领涨，德明利、神工股份、普冉股份、江波龙、大为股份、万润科技跟涨。 消息面上，据报道，韩国两大存储芯片巨头三星与SK海力士正加快内存生产，以应对来自AI的需求。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a narrow fluctuation in early trading on December 24, with all three major indices turning positive [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 89.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector showed strong performance, with nearly 20 constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Chaojie Co., which rose by 20%, and Shenjian Co., which achieved five consecutive limit-ups [1] - The Fujian sector also strengthened, with Anji Food hitting four limit-ups in seven days and Hexing Packaging achieving three consecutive limit-ups [1] - In contrast, the precious metals sector opened high but fell back, with Shanjin International and Western Gold experiencing declines [1] - The dairy sector saw a pullback, with Zhuangyuan Pasture hitting the daily limit down [1] Index Performance - By the end of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.08% [1]

A股三大指数集体上涨，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.24%报3929.25点，深证成指涨0.31%，创业板指涨 0.08%，北证50涨0.18%。全市场成交额11591亿元，较上日成交额缩量931亿元，近3900股上涨。盘面 上，蓝箭航天IPO辅导工作正式完成叠加近期政策层面利好，带动商业航天板块再度爆发，天通股份、 中国卫星等十余股涨停；其他电源设备、消费电子、半导体等板块上涨，贵金属、白酒板块调整。 ...

贵金属还在加速狂飙。 在地缘政治风险影响、全球供应持续短缺以及强劲投资需求的共同推动下，黄金、白银和铂金价格再一次冲上历史新高。 现货黄金价格有史以来首次突破每盎司4500美元，今年以来已累计上涨超过三分之二，有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 铂金价格也飙升至每盎司2300美元上方的历史最高点。这一金属价格已连续10个交易日上涨，创下2017年以来最长连涨纪录，今年以来的累计涨幅更是超 过150%，有望创下彭博自1987年有数据记录以来的最佳年度表现。 而这轮波澜壮阔的涨势正迅速传导至全球市场。国内商品期货市场开盘后，铂期货主力合约触及涨停，沪银、钯金期货涨幅均超过6%。 现货白银同样涨势如虹，突破70美元关口后，涨势仍在强势延续。 | 名称 | 肌价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 日増仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铂2606 | 657.65 | 43.00 | 7.00% | +591 | | 沪银2602 | 17357 | 1070 | 6.57% | +20254 | | 钟2606 | 574.55 | 33.90 | 6.27% | +251 ...