A股三大指数集体上涨，截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.24%报3929.25点，深证成指涨0.31%，创业板指涨 0.08%，北证50涨0.18%。全市场成交额11591亿元，较上日成交额缩量931亿元，近3900股上涨。盘面 上，蓝箭航天IPO辅导工作正式完成叠加近期政策层面利好，带动商业航天板块再度爆发，天通股份、 中国卫星等十余股涨停；其他电源设备、消费电子、半导体等板块上涨，贵金属、白酒板块调整。 ...

贵金属还在加速狂飙。 在地缘政治风险影响、全球供应持续短缺以及强劲投资需求的共同推动下，黄金、白银和铂金价格再一次冲上历史新高。 现货黄金价格有史以来首次突破每盎司4500美元，今年以来已累计上涨超过三分之二，有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 铂金价格也飙升至每盎司2300美元上方的历史最高点。这一金属价格已连续10个交易日上涨，创下2017年以来最长连涨纪录，今年以来的累计涨幅更是超 过150%，有望创下彭博自1987年有数据记录以来的最佳年度表现。 而这轮波澜壮阔的涨势正迅速传导至全球市场。国内商品期货市场开盘后，铂期货主力合约触及涨停，沪银、钯金期货涨幅均超过6%。 现货白银同样涨势如虹，突破70美元关口后，涨势仍在强势延续。 | 名称 | 肌价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 日増仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铂2606 | 657.65 | 43.00 | 7.00% | +591 | | 沪银2602 | 17357 | 1070 | 6.57% | +20254 | | 钟2606 | 574.55 | 33.90 | 6.27% | +251 ...

大宗商品市场继续势如破竹！周二，国际金价突破4500美元关口，伦敦现货白银价格最高升至71.575美 元/盎司，LME期铜最高触及12159.5美元/吨。现货铂金价格最高报2295.7美元/盎司，逼近2008年3月创 下的历史最高纪录，现货钯金也创近三年来新高。这一波猛烈上行进一步增强了黄金多头的乐观情 绪。"华尔街老兵"、资深策略师亚德尼创立的独立投资研究机构Yardeni Research发布最新报告称，随着 金价突破4500美元，我们将2026年底黄金目标价上调至6000美元。到本年代末，也就是2029年底，金价 将达到10000美元。这一目标价似乎超越了目前市场上最乐观的预期——摩根大通预测明年年底黄金高 点为每盎司5055美元。 ...

贵金属还在加速狂飙。 在地缘政治风险影响、全球供应持续短缺以及强劲投资需求的共同推动下，黄金、白银和铂金价格再一次冲上历史新高。 现货黄金价格 有史以来首次突破每盎司4500美元，今年以来已累计上涨超过三分之二，有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 铂金价格也飙升至每盎司2300美元上方的历史最高点。这一金属价格 已连续10个交易日上涨，创下2017年以来最长连涨纪录，今年以来的累计涨幅更是超过 150%，有望创下彭博自1987年有数据记录以来的最佳年度表现。 黄金今年的强劲表现，是多种因素共同作用的结果。除了地缘政治风险这一直接催化剂，更深层次的驱动力来自于宏观经济和政策层面的变化。 据世界黄金协会数据，各国央行的持续大量买入为此轮牛市提供了坚实基础。同时，资金正源源不断地流入黄金ETF，今年除5月外，全球黄金ETF的总持仓量 每个月都在上升。其中，全球最大的贵金属ETF——道富集团旗下的SPDR Gold Trust，其持仓量今年已增长超过五分之一。 分析称，美国总统特朗普今年早些时候旨在重塑全球贸易体系的激进措施，以及他对美联储独立性的挑战，也为金价上涨火上浇油。此外，投资者正积极进行 所谓的"货币 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, have experienced significant price increases, with gold and silver nearing historical highs, driven by macroeconomic factors and strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 23, gold prices approached $4500 per ounce, while silver prices surpassed $69 per ounce, marking substantial year-to-date increases of over 71% for gold and 142% for silver [1][2] - Platinum and palladium also saw significant price rises, with platinum reaching $2190.70 per ounce and palladium hitting $1840.50 per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of 142% and 102%, respectively [2][3] Group 2: Supporting Factors - The strong performance of precious metals is attributed to global macroeconomic easing and geopolitical uncertainties, which enhance their appeal as safe-haven investments [3] - Market expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy, particularly following weaker-than-expected employment data and inflation trends, have bolstered demand for precious metals [3][4] - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October, marking a 36% month-over-month increase [3] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Investment demand has tightened the supply of silver, platinum, and palladium, leading to higher price elasticity, while caution is advised regarding potential market overheating [4] - Different precious metals exhibit distinct price-driving factors, with gold being sensitive to macroeconomic changes and safe-haven demand, while silver benefits from industrial demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [6][7] - Platinum and palladium prices are more closely tied to industrial demand and supply constraints, particularly in the automotive sector, where palladium is crucial for gasoline vehicle emissions control [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while platinum prices may find support from supply-demand dynamics, palladium faces structural pressures due to the shift towards electric vehicles, which could limit its price growth [8] - Recent announcements regarding trading limits on platinum and palladium futures indicate regulatory responses to the volatile market conditions [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela and Ukraine have caused a pulse - like "risk premium" in the oil market, but the substantial global supply tightening due to Venezuela's supply disruption is expected to be limited. Geopolitical premiums tend to provide short - term rebound momentum for oil prices [1]. - The strong GDP data in the US third - quarter initially caused a decline in precious metals, but geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals, and attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. - Most commodities are in a state of complex supply - demand and market sentiment, with many showing range - bound oscillations. Some commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, while others are influenced by seasonal demand, cost changes, and policy expectations. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions drive price rebounds, but supply tightening is limited. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling and fracturing activities [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil demand lacks upward drivers, and the trading focus is on supply disruptions. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short - term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to refinery device changes [19]. - **Asphalt**: Weekly shipments are at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. Geopolitical factors may provide short - term cost - side support, but the price will eventually be pressured by supply - demand looseness [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold has reached a new high, and geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals. Attention should be paid to capital movements during the Christmas holiday [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high. In the first quarter of next year, the market is pricing in the tight supply at the mine end in advance. There may be short - term adjustments, but the long - position demand for the first - quarter contract remains strong [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are not prominent, and it mainly follows the upward trend of other metals. Long - positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as support [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has difficulty following the upward trend at high levels, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains around 1,000 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is at a historical high, the supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and the inventory is rising [6]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a rebound trend, and it is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton, and inventory pressure needs to be monitored [8]. - **Tin**: The price has declined. The supply is expected to turn around in the first quarter of 2026, and high prices are suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to the risk at high levels [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the expected production cuts at the end of the month, but the demand is under pressure, and the upward space is limited [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. Supply has decreased significantly, and demand remains resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Building Materials - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has declined at night. Rebar demand has recovered slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory reduction is accelerating. The overall market is in range - bound oscillations [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has declined. Supply is expected to be strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The third - round price cut has been implemented, and the price is likely to oscillate [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating widely. Production has decreased slightly, and the price is likely to oscillate after repairing the discount [15]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating. Inventory is increasing, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak. The market is cautious, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve in the short - term [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly, with supply pressure easing and demand remaining low. Caustic soda is also oscillating strongly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth [26]. - **Aromatics** - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating weakly. Supply and demand pressure may ease, and it is recommended to consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [23]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply may increase more than demand. The support from pure benzene is limited [24]. - **Others** - **PX & PTA**: PX prices have risen due to supply reduction expectations. PTA supply may increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has declined significantly. Supply is expected to increase in the long - term, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Raw material prices are squeezing profits. Short - fiber supply - demand is relatively good in the long - term, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [29]. - **Urea**: The market is affected by export quota rumors, and the supply - surplus pattern continues. The price is oscillating in a range [21]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may oscillate weakly, and there is an upward driver in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 spread [22]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The开机率 of domestic oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American weather [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is rebounding, and soybean oil has declined after rising. Attention should be paid to fundamental changes [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil mill is not operating, and imports have been announced. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price is stable and strong due to the premium in the auction [36]. - **Grains** - **Corn**: The price is slowly declining. Supply - demand mismatch has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Egg**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 spread strategy [39]. - **Cotton**: The price is rising. US cotton sales data is good, and domestic cotton inventory is relatively low. It is recommended to buy on dips [40]. - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production progress and expectations vary by region. Attention should be paid to subsequent production [41]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is bearish [42]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. Supply is decreasing, demand in the off - season is okay, and inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating. Port inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the risk appetite of equity assets has been supported. Attention should be paid to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - level sectors [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury futures rose. The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate around the spot price [18].

Group 1 - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a record high above $4,490 per ounce, closing at $4,484.87, with a gain of 0.93% [1] - Silver prices have surpassed the key psychological level of $70, closing at $71.45, with an increase of 3.54% [1] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.84% to $58.37 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 0.66% to $62.44 per barrel, amid concerns over supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, marking the fastest growth in two years, despite a decline in consumer confidence for five consecutive months [1] - The ADP weekly employment report indicates that private sector employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending December 6, 2025 [1] - Discussions are suggested regarding adjusting the Federal Reserve's inflation target to a range of 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3% [1]

2025年颠覆了以往熟悉的收益格局。加密货币陷入了长时间的下跌和盘整阶段，最终沦为表现最差的资产之一。与此同时，传统 资产却意外地成为年度最大赢家。白银和黄金的收益异常出色，而美国股指也稳步保持上涨势头。这种分化暴露出一个关键的行 业问题：2025年，加密货币失去了其作为防御性资产甚至另类资产的地位，重新回到了高风险资产的行列。 贵金属、美股"争夺"资金，加密货币2025年"虎头蛇尾" 2025年，贵金属表现最为强劲，加剧了与加密货币争夺笔资金的竞争——这些资金在不确定时期寻求避险。白银价格全年上涨约 140%，黄金价格上涨约70%，均创下历史新高。这波上涨行情具有结构性：对宽松货币政策和地缘政治风险的预期，促使投资者 转向那些具有简单保值功能的资产。 在普遍的不确定性下，投资者越来越倾向于选择那些历史悠久、监管清晰且流动性高的投资工具。可及性也发挥了作用：黄金和 白银可以通过交易所交易产品(包括ETF)轻松购买，而在数字领域，与实物资产挂钩的代币化产品——RWA解决方案——则仍在发 展。这降低了部分投资者的准入门槛，并支撑了对贵金属的需求。 在供应有限的背景下，工业需求(尤其是太阳能和电动汽车的需求)进一步 ...

12月24日，A股三大股指微幅高开，其中沪指涨0.01%报3920.35点，深成指涨0.07%报13378.48点，创业板指涨0.07%报 3207.41点，科创50指数涨0.16%报1342.13点；贵金属板块连日走强，湖南白银涨超3%，山东黄金、恒邦股份、赤峰黄金、四 川黄金、中金黄金等个股跟涨；有色金属板块连日走强，白银有色涨超4%，盛达资源、电工合金、兴业银锡、新威凌、北方 铜业、深圳新星等个股跟涨；风电设备、乳业、海南板块调整；次新股回调明显，N锡华跌超24%，N纳百川跌超23%，N天溯 计量跌超18%。 盘面上，市场焦点股胜通能源（8板）竞价涨停，福建本地股安记食品（16天9板）高开6.38%、鹭燕医药（5板）高开 3.89%，实控人变更的嘉美包装（5板）竞价涨停，商业航天概念股神剑股份（4板）低开3.24%，海南本地股海南发展（3板） 高开7.90%、海南瑞泽（3板）平开、海汽集团（3板）高开2.15%，环保股楚环科技（3板）低开9.89%，洁净室概念股圣晖集成 （2板）竞价涨停、亚翔集成（2板）高开2.09%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, is attributed to a confluence of macroeconomic factors, monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties, marking a shift from single-factor to multi-factor driving forces [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 15:00, London gold reached a record high of $4420.07 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $4381.48 on October 20 [1] - London silver also hit a new peak at $69.45 per ounce, while COMEX gold and silver futures reached $4443.5 and $69.525 per ounce, respectively, both setting historical records [1] - Platinum and palladium also showed strong performance, with platinum rising to $2074.1 per ounce, a 4% increase, and palladium reaching $1796.5 per ounce, also up over 4% [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - The comprehensive rise in precious metals is driven by strong expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties, which collectively provide a long-term risk premium for precious metals [2] - The activation of market bullish sentiment was primarily due to gold's historical high, which in turn stimulated interest in silver, platinum, and palladium, creating a complete chain reaction from financial attributes to industrial properties [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future price movements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are expected to diverge, with gold likely maintaining a steady trajectory due to its strong financial attributes, while silver's price will be influenced by industrial demand, particularly in green technologies [2] - Platinum and palladium will be more closely tied to the recovery of the automotive sector and overall economic conditions, with their correlation to gold potentially weakening [2] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Despite favorable macro conditions for precious metals, prices are at historical highs, prompting a cautious approach for investors who should recognize potential risks and align their strategies with their risk tolerance [3] - Investors are advised to view precious metals as a long-term defensive asset rather than a short-term speculative tool, with strategies such as dollar-cost averaging into gold or gold ETFs recommended for building positions gradually [3]