Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price is expected to maintain fluctuations in the short term, with a slight increase in production capacity observed in April. The current pig price is 14.79 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs [6][20] - The report suggests a shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on financial performance, emphasizing that the efficiency differences among companies are significant. It recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, due to their strong profit certainty in 2025 [7][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing a rebound in chicken prices, with the latest prices for broiler chickens at 7.46 CNY/kg and chick prices at 3.1 CNY each. The report indicates that the industry is facing quality issues with breeding stock, leading to a concentration of profits towards upstream sources [8][22] - In the feed sector, the report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential. The fish prices have shown positive trends, with various species experiencing year-on-year increases [9][23][24] - The pet industry is noted for its continuous growth, with sales data indicating a decline in some segments but strong performance from certain brands like MaiFudi and Fuleijiate. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands and their market performance [13][25][29] - The agricultural products sector is expected to see price increases due to reduced imports and a focus on domestic supply, with the report highlighting the importance of improving farmers' income through price adjustments [16][31] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - Short-term pig prices are expected to fluctuate, with a current price of 14.79 CNY/kg and an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs. The production capacity is slightly increasing, with a total of 40.39 million breeding sows reported [6][20] - The report suggests that the overall supply of pigs is expected to be high, leading to a weak price outlook in the medium to long term [20][21] 2. Poultry Industry - Chicken prices are rebounding, with broiler prices at 7.46 CNY/kg and chick prices at 3.1 CNY each. The report indicates that the industry is facing quality issues with breeding stock, leading to a concentration of profits towards upstream sources [8][22] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential. Fish prices have shown positive trends, with various species experiencing year-on-year increases [9][23][24] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is noted for its continuous growth, with sales data indicating a decline in some segments but strong performance from certain brands like MaiFudi and Fuleijiate. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands and their market performance [13][25][29] 5. Agricultural Products - The agricultural products sector is expected to see price increases due to reduced imports and a focus on domestic supply, with the report highlighting the importance of improving farmers' income through price adjustments [16][31]

神农集团是一家集饲料生产、生猪养殖、居宰加工、食品深加工为一体的农业产业化国家重点龙头企业。 中长期看，公司具备成长属性的同时，未来长期红利配置价值有望愈加显著。我们预计公司2025-2027年 归母净利润分别为7.09亿元、9.66亿元、11.18亿元，EPS分别为1.35元、1.84元、2.13元，对应25、26、27 年PE分别为21.65、15.89、13.73倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 猪肉消费和价格不及预期、疫病风险等。 中航证券有限公司彭海兰,陈翼近期对神农集团（605296）进行研究并发布了研究报告《成本持续优化， 业绩强劲兑现》，给予神农集团买入评级。 神农集团 报告摘要 24年全年和25年01业绩强劲兑现神农集团2024年实现营业收入55.84亿元，同比增长43.51%；归母净利润 6.87亿元，同比扭亏为盈，增长271.16%；扣非归母净利润6.97亿元，同比增长275.62%。公司2025年一季 度业绩延续较快增长，实现营业收入14.72亿元，同比增长35.97%；归母净利润2.29亿元，去年同期为 356.6万元，实现扭亏为盈，同比增长6510.85%；扣非归母净利润2.29亿 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Key Points - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is expected to turn profitable in 2024, but profits in Q1 2025 are projected to decline by 30% quarter-on-quarter due to falling pig prices and seasonal weakness in meat consumption [1][2] - Major pig farming companies, such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, contributed 88% of the industry's profits, indicating a concentration of profitability among leading firms [1][3] - The cost optimization in pig farming for 2024 is primarily driven by a 9%-10% decrease in feed prices, while improvements in farming performance contributed only 2%-3% [1][5] - The asset-liability ratio of listed pig farming companies stabilized in Q1 2025, but production biological assets decreased by 4% year-on-year and 5.8% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a strategic reduction in breeding sows to mitigate future market risks [1][6] - The forecast for pig prices in 2025 suggests a downward trend, although post-Spring Festival performance may exceed expectations, necessitating a reassessment of the impact of secondary fattening [1][7] Subsector Analysis: Pig Farming Key Points - In 2024, listed pig farming companies saw a revenue increase of 2%-3% and a net profit of 31 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround after three years of losses [3][4] - The average profit per head for leading companies remains robust, with Shennong Group maintaining profits above 300 yuan per head, while other companies face potential losses [8] Subsector Analysis: Poultry Farming Key Points - The white feather chicken market is experiencing price declines, with a 15% increase in supply in Q1 2025 leading to a 40% drop in chick prices [9][10] - Despite price pressures, the profitability of parent stock chickens remains strong, while the commodity chicken segment faces significant supply-demand challenges [10] Subsector Analysis: Pet Food Industry Key Points - The pet food industry has shown sustained high growth, with a 20% revenue increase in 2024 and a 23% increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong domestic and international demand [12][14] - Export growth is expected to slow, but domestic sales are projected to accelerate due to increased consumer spending and e-commerce support [15] Subsector Analysis: Pharmaceutical Industry Key Points - The pharmaceutical sector's performance in Q1 2025 was slightly below expectations, with a 3%-4% decline in revenue primarily due to the vaccine and traditional Chinese medicine sectors [31] - Notable growth was observed in the CXO, innovative drugs, and consumer healthcare segments, with leading companies like WuXi AppTec and Innovent Biologics showing strong performance [30][33] - The medical device sector is anticipated to recover in the latter half of the year, with increased procurement indicating a rebound in hospital demand [34] Additional Insights - The overall food and beverage sector is facing pressure, with traditional industries experiencing high concentration and competition, while emerging sectors like beverages and snacks show potential for growth [17][22] - The liquor industry has seen modest growth, with high-end brands outperforming mid-range products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [18][21] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call records, highlighting the performance and outlook of various sectors within the agriculture and food industries, as well as the pharmaceutical sector.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Short-term consumption weakness has led to a slight decline in pig prices, but high prices for piglets and sows indicate optimistic expectations for the future [4][6] - The pig farming sector shows low valuation opportunities, while the pet sector continues to strengthen the logic of domestic brand rise [7][25] - The overall agricultural index underperformed the market by 0.93 percentage points during the week [29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - After the May Day holiday, consumer support was insufficient, leading to a slight decline in national pig prices. As of May 9, the average selling price of live pigs was 14.79 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week, a decrease of 0.14% [4][15] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 148,800 pigs, a decrease of 780 pigs from the previous week [4][15] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation opportunities, with the supply side not yet recovering to the levels of the same period in 2023. The demand side is supported by macro policies driving consumption recovery [25] - Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, Huadong Food, and Tiankang Biological [7][25] Market Performance (May 5-9) - The agricultural index rose by 0.99%, underperforming the market by 0.93 percentage points, with the fishery sector leading the gains [29][32] - Notable stock performances included *ST Jiawo (+13.47%), Guotou Zhonglu (+12.05%), and Xuelong Biological (+11.04%) [29][35] Price Tracking (May 5-9) - As of May 9, the national average price for live pigs was 14.82 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets was 36.87 yuan/kg, also down 0.01 yuan/kg [41] - The average profit for self-bred pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.72 yuan/head week-on-week [41] Key News (May 5-9) - Seven departments jointly issued an implementation opinion to enhance the overall effectiveness of the agricultural science and technology innovation system [36]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 19 周周报：它博会归来，如何看宠物经济发展新趋势？ 1、宠物板块：高景气延续，国产替代与消费升级共筑量价双升 1）它博会看点：①今年关注度再上一层。第五届 TOPS 它博会于本周在上海国家会展中心开幕，展会以超 10 万平展览面积、1200 余家展商、8000+ 品牌缔造行业盛况，折射宠物赛道强劲增长动能。展会首日观众数同比激增 43%，创历史新高，核心数据验证行业扩容。②产品和工艺趋势变化：宠 物主粮精细化趋势显著，分龄分阶喂养成为核心升级方向：幼年期主打高蛋白、原生营养（麦富迪奶弗羊奶肉主粮系列），老年期聚焦肠胃调理、关节 养护（麦富迪老年犬粮）；工艺革新驱动高端化：低温烘焙成军备竞赛焦点（领先烘焙鲜肉猫粮、弗列加特鲜肉烘焙粮），鲜粮/湿粮赛道崛起（ZEAL 新西兰进口主食罐），国产技术迭代创新，行业从"粗放供给"迈向"精准营养+体验升级"新周期；③部分参展公司亮点：外资品牌如皇家、渴望、 爱肯拿，国产头部品牌如麦富迪、鲜朗、蓝氏，以及国产宠物用品公司天元宠物等齐聚展会，其中国产品牌表现较为亮眼——麦富迪它博会以"超级 工厂+天性数据研 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Short-term consumption weakness has led to a slight decline in pig prices, but high prices for piglets and sows indicate optimistic expectations for the future [4][6] - The pig farming sector shows low valuation opportunities, while the pet sector continues to strengthen the logic of domestic brand rise [7][25] - The overall agricultural index underperformed the market by 0.93 percentage points during the week [29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - After the May Day holiday, consumer support was insufficient, leading to a slight decline in national pig prices. As of May 9, the average selling price of pigs was 14.79 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week, reflecting a 0.14% decrease [4][15] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 148,800 pigs, a decrease of 780 pigs from the previous week [4][15] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation opportunities, with the supply side not yet recovering to the levels of the same period in 2023. The demand side is supported by macro policies that boost consumption recovery [25] - Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, Huadong Food, and Tiankang Biological [7][25] Market Performance (May 5-9) - The agricultural index rose by 0.99%, underperforming the market by 0.93 percentage points, with the fishery sector leading the gains [29][32] - Notable stock performances included *ST Jiawo (+13.47%), Guotou Zhonglu (+12.05%), and Xuelong Biological (+11.04%) [29][35] Price Tracking (May 5-9) - As of May 9, the national average price for pigs was 14.82 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets was 36.87 yuan/kg, also down 0.01 yuan/kg [41] - The average profit for self-bred pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.72 yuan/head week-on-week [41] Key News (May 5-9) - Seven departments jointly issued an implementation opinion to enhance the overall effectiveness of the agricultural science and technology innovation system, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation in agricultural modernization [36][37]

Group 1: Current Price Trends - The GDP deflator index has been negative for 8 consecutive quarters, marking a historical high duration[16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 31 months, with a monthly average decline of 1.34 percentage points from coal, black metal, and non-metal industries[19] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to a growth center of 0.1%, significantly lower than the average growth of 2.6% from 2010 to 2019[30] Group 2: Contributing Factors to Price Decline - The real estate market has seen a significant change in supply-demand dynamics, with real estate investment growth negative for three consecutive years, impacting related industries[42] - Insufficient consumer demand has led to a decline in CPI, with the average consumption propensity dropping to 63.1% in Q1 2025, down from 65.2% in 2019[47] - "Involution" competition in emerging industries has caused prices to drop beyond reasonable levels, with lithium battery prices falling by 39.5% and solar module prices by 29.7% in 2024[52] Group 3: Impact of External Factors - The "tariff war" initiated by the U.S. has negatively impacted export demand, leading to increased domestic supply-demand imbalances and downward pressure on prices[63] - The average monthly increase in pork prices from April 2024 to April 2025 was only 11.3%, significantly lower than previous cycles, reducing its support for overall CPI[36] Group 4: Recommendations for Policy Action - There is a need for stronger macroeconomic regulation to promote reasonable price recovery, including policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize asset prices[63] - Supply-side reforms should focus on eliminating outdated production capacity and encouraging mergers and acquisitions to restore price levels[10]

今天分享的是：2025年中国猪产业链竞争力重构与产业发展战略报告-光华博思特 报告共计：184页 以下为报告节选内容 第一章 纵观中国猪产业链发展环境与价值的探优方向 第二章 中国猪产业链上游 - 生猪养殖环节全景洞察与未来展望 三 第三章 新产业格局变化,中国生猪养殖收益分析与产业增值之道 第四章 在价值生态中,生猪屠宰与肉类加工现代化升级路径 录 第五章 中国猪肉消费市场高价值发展规划与战略机遇 第六章 新经济环境下猪肉企业打造持久竞争力的战略模型 报告发布单位:山东省畜牧协会猪业分会 《中国猪产业链竞争力重构与产业发展战略报告》由山东省畜牧协会猪业分会发布，光华博思特实施，旨在剖析中国猪产业链发展状况并提供战略指导。 中国猪产业链发展受经济、政策、市场等多种因素影响，经济增长虽有速度变化但人均GDP提升，为产业发展提供支撑；政策上产能调控与科技赋能，推 动产业升级；市场需求向高品质、多元化转变，出口潜力释放，但产业也面临微利、环保等挑战。生猪养殖环节，行业历经多阶段发展，当前呈规模化趋 势，不过面临盈利空间受限、疫病防控等问题，未来将朝着规模化、智能化、品质化方向发展。养殖成本方面，饲料占比较大，可通过 ...

Group 1 - Alibaba's CEO Wu Yongming emphasized the need for the company to return to its entrepreneurial roots and adapt to the opportunities and risks presented by the AI technology revolution [3][4] - Alibaba has reportedly opened up internal network permissions, allowing employees from various business units to reconnect after two years, indicating a potential shift towards a more unified corporate culture [4] - Tmall's 618 shopping festival will feature a simplified discount structure, offering a 15% discount for single-item purchases, with additional coupons and price protection measures in place [4] Group 2 - TikTok's live streaming platform has intensified efforts to combat "emotional disguise" scams, recovering over 1,000 accounts in the first quarter for violating guidelines [5] - Dazhong Dianping has launched a reporting channel for users to report inducements for positive reviews and harassment for negative reviews, with significant numbers of complaints received during the recent holiday [6][7] - The e-commerce platform Dewu reported a doubling of annual sales for 6,120 brands, with a user base exceeding 500 million, primarily targeting the post-95 demographic in China [8] Group 3 - Xiangdao Travel has completed over 1.3 billion RMB in Series C financing and announced plans for an IPO in Hong Kong, focusing on personal and corporate travel services [9] - Shenzhou Car Rental has initiated a "dirty must compensate" service quality month, promising triple compensation for users who find vehicles not meeting cleanliness standards [10] - Google Pay has had its regulatory oversight lifted by the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, reversing a previous decision made during the Biden administration [11] Group 4 - TSMC reported a 48.1% year-on-year increase in sales for April, reaching 349.57 billion NTD, with a 22.2% month-on-month growth [15] - Semiconductor foundry SMIC indicated that smartphone clients may lower inventory targets for Q3, facing price pressure in the foundry industry [14] - Ford has withdrawn its annual earnings guidance due to potential significant impacts from tariffs on net profits, despite reporting better-than-expected Q1 results [27] Group 5 - Panasonic Holdings announced plans to cut 10,000 jobs by 2029, representing about 4% of its global workforce of approximately 228,000 [32] - New Hope reported a sales volume of 1.596 million pigs in April, with a revenue of 2.278 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease in revenue [34] - Shimao Group's contract sales for the first four months of 2025 reached approximately 9.07 billion RMB, with an average sales price of 12,209 RMB per square meter [37]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.002 billion CNY, a significant increase of 108.22% compared to the same period last year [3] - Gross profit reached 491 million CNY, up 138.79% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 171 million CNY, marking a 449.58% increase from the previous year [3] - The asset-liability ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was 44.91%, a decrease of 1.51 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3] - Total assets amounted to 19.410 billion CNY, a growth of 2.16% from the end of the previous year [3] Cost Management - The production cost for fattening operations in March 2025 was 13.3 CNY/kg [4] - The company aims to align its costs with top industry standards through various internal management strategies [4][8] - The company plans to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs by optimizing breeding performance and improving resource allocation [4][8] Future Projections - The company expects to maintain a target of over 7 million pigs for 2025 [4] - The company is focused on high-quality development and cost reduction as core strategies [8] - The IoT coverage rate is currently at 77%, with plans for further expansion [8] Market Position and Strategy - The "company + farmer" model accounts for 85% of the fattened pig output in 2024 [6] - The company is actively managing its market presence and investor relations to enhance its market value [7] - The company is committed to digital transformation and smart farming initiatives to improve efficiency and reduce production costs [8] Shareholder Information - As of April 18, 2025, the number of shareholders stood at 165,300 [9]