Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 24, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 978,000 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, but a month-on-month decrease of 15.2%[2] - Subway passenger volume growth in July was 0.36% year-on-year and 4.31% month-on-month[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1763.8 as of July 25, a month-on-month increase of 5.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - As of July 26, the average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 83.38%[3] - The operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.77 percentage points to 73.11%[3] - The operating rate of electric furnaces decreased by 1.45 percentage points to 51.59%[3] - The operating rate of asphalt plants dropped significantly by 4 percentage points to 28.8%[3] Price Performance - As of July 25, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.35% week-on-week, while the futures settlement price rose by 0.19%[4] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables increased by 0.27%, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits decreased by 2.31%[4] - Egg prices rose by 5.56% week-on-week due to seasonal demand[4] International Macro - The U.S. and Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, with tariffs on Japan set at 15%[7] - The EU has prepared a countermeasure list against the U.S. totaling €93 billion (approximately $110 billion) in trade[7] - The U.S. job market remains stable, but investment data continues to show weakness, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5, below the expected 52.7[8]

（二）券商最新研判 （一）重磅消息 据新华社报道，国务院总理7月26日在上海出席2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 开幕式并致辞。围绕如何把握人工智能公共产品属性、推进人工智能发展和治理，提出三点建议。一是 更加注重普及普惠，充分用好人工智能发展的已有成果。二是更加注重创新合作，力求更多突破性的人 工智能科技硕果。三是更加注重共同治理，确保人工智能在造福人类上最终修成正果。 信达证券：当下市场具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件 牛市重要的驱动力量之一是股市政策驱动股权融资减少。2023年下半年以来，随着股权融资规模的下 降，股市的供需结构也在扭转。当下市场也具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件。 战略上，2025年下半年可能会出现类似2014年下半年的突破，战术上要等待经济或政策的催化。估值位 置偏低、上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，这些很像2013年~2014年年中和2019 年的震荡市，最终的结局大概率是更全面的牛市。战术层面，之前突破的临界点均有政策和经济高频数 据催化，目前需要等待观察1~2个月。 行业配置方面，稳健策略包括非银、银行，指数权重大且机构低配。需要轮动的策略上， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, is focused on improving efficiency and reducing costs in pig farming through a combination of technology and management strategies, while maintaining a strong commitment to the pig breeding industry and exploring opportunities in the food processing sector. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Position - As of July 25, 2025, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry's stock closed at 21.69 yuan, up 6.79% from the previous week, with a total market capitalization of 11.063 billion yuan, ranking 8th in the livestock sector and 1580th in the A-share market [1] - The company aims to provide high-quality pork products with extreme efficiency, positioning itself as a competitive player in the pig farming industry and aspiring to become a world-class agricultural and animal husbandry food enterprise [2] Group 2: Operational Strategies - The company has established a "five-star breeding system" that integrates genetics, feed, management, biosecurity, and environmental systems to enhance production efficiency and ensure high-quality pork supply [3] - Continuous improvement in production management and cost reduction is driven by a dual approach of technology and management, focusing on biosecurity, genetic management, and optimized breeding processes [5] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company is advancing towards a technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive modern farming model, implementing smart farming equipment and big data analytics to enhance decision-making in pig farming [4] - Ongoing digital and intelligent construction projects aim to cover all business segments, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing labor costs through technology [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company has a long-term dividend plan for 2024-2026, aiming to improve the stability, planning, and predictability of shareholder returns, with a recent cash dividend distribution of 0.1737 yuan per share totaling approximately 85.55 million yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in the pig market shows a strong futures market contrasted with a weak spot market, driven by macro-level supply adjustments and policy expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of mid-July, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 14.4 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous month [1]. - The futures market has shown strength, with the main contract reaching 15,150 yuan per ton on July 23, driven by policy expectations and market sentiment [2][3]. - The current supply pressure in the spot market is attributed to the ongoing recovery of pig farming profitability, which has been stable for 14 consecutive months since May 2024 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - As of the end of June, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, exceeding the normal holding capacity of 39 million heads [2]. - The pig farming industry is currently in a phase of supply increment, with positive month-on-month increases in the number of newborn piglets from January to May [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The recent meeting on July 23 emphasized strict implementation of capacity control measures, including the rational elimination of breeding sows and control of pig weights at slaughter [4]. - Analysts believe that these capacity control measures will help stabilize the industry and prevent blind expansion, ensuring sustainable long-term profitability [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, the early release of supply pressure is expected to help stabilize pork prices and avoid significant price drops [4]. - The long-term strategy aims to maintain production capacity within a reasonable range, ensuring a stable supply of pork while allowing farming enterprises to achieve normal profits [4].

Group 1: Industrial Products Market - The domestic bulk commodity market shows a clear divergence, with industrial products rising across the board while agricultural products perform weakly [1] - The black and chemical sectors are the main drivers of the market's rise, with coking coal and polysilicon seeing particularly significant gains [1] - Coking coal has emerged as the standout performer, with a weekly increase of over 30%, driven by favorable macro policies and strong market sentiment [1] Group 2: Metal Sector Performance - The metal sector has seen a collective surge, with polysilicon leading the charge, achieving a weekly increase of over 21% and reaching a historical high [1] - Positive industry policies aimed at structural adjustment and eliminating outdated capacity have bolstered market confidence [1] - Other metals like alumina and lithium carbonate also performed well, each with weekly increases exceeding 10% [1] Group 3: Glass Market Dynamics - Glass prices have reached a five-month high, driven by favorable industry policies and rising coal prices impacting production costs [2] - The decline in glass inventory to a near six-month low and strong sales performance from some companies have contributed to the price increase [2] Group 4: Swine Market Trends - The domestic swine market is experiencing a notable divergence, with live pig prices slightly declining while futures prices have seen a peak and subsequent drop [2] - Despite fluctuations in supply and demand, stocks related to pig farming have risen, indicating a disconnect between current market conditions and long-term expectations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed pig farming companies are experiencing a "volume increase and price decrease" pattern in the first half of 2025, with several leading companies like Muyuan Foods showing positive performance forecasts [1][2]. Industry Overview - As of July 25, 2025, there are 35 pig-related stocks in China's A-share market, with 20 companies disclosing June sales data. Most companies reported a year-on-year increase in sales volume, but sales revenue did not grow correspondingly due to a decline in selling prices [2][13]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on July 23, 2025, emphasizing the need for market guidance and policy support to stabilize the pig market and promote the industry's transformation and upgrade [3]. Company Performance - In June 2025, the total sales volume of the 20 listed pig companies exceeded 17 million heads, with Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope leading in sales volume [4][6]. - Muyuan Foods reported sales of 701.9 thousand heads and sales revenue of 12.799 billion yuan, with a year-on-year sales volume increase of 58.35% and revenue increase of 27.65% [6]. - Wens Foodstuff Group sold 300.73 thousand heads with a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year sales volume increase of 28.93% but a revenue decrease of 5.40% [6]. - New Hope sold 133 thousand heads with a revenue of 1.871 billion yuan, reflecting a slight sales volume increase of 3.38% but a significant revenue decline of 19.14% [6]. Market Dynamics - The overall pig farming industry has been profitable for 14 consecutive months since May 2024, with the production situation generally favorable [4]. - The average selling price of pigs has decreased, impacting revenue despite increased sales volumes [7][12]. - Some companies, such as Muyuan Foods and Zhengbang Technology, managed to achieve both sales volume and revenue growth [7]. Future Outlook - Muyuan Foods expects a net profit of 10.2 to 10.7 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 1,129% [14]. - New Hope anticipates a turnaround in performance, attributing improvements to enhanced production management and cost reductions [15]. - Companies are exploring international markets, with plans to expand into Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, aiming to enhance their global presence [16].

Macro Overview - The core focus for the second half of the year is to consolidate the positive economic situation while addressing prominent issues such as low prices, declining investment growth, and continuity in consumption policies. The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3%, exceeding expectations [2][3][4] Fixed Income Strategies - In the recent period, strategies such as low-price enhancement, improved dual-low, and high-price high-elasticity recorded returns of 2.6%, 2.3%, and 4.8% respectively, outperforming the benchmark of 2.4%. Year-to-date, these strategies have achieved returns of 9.7%, 21.3%, and 38.4% against a benchmark of 10.3% [12][13][14] Agriculture Sector - The pig farming industry shows a recovery in profitability, with July pig prices stabilizing after a decline. The average price in July was 14.96 yuan/kg, down 8% from the end of 2024. The focus remains on high-quality pig enterprises with good financial conditions [24][25][26] - The pet food sector is in a growth phase, with an increase in market share for quality enterprises. The export value of pet food in the first half of the year saw a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [24][26] Steel Industry - The commencement of the Yajiang hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to boost demand for basic and special steel. The project will require significant amounts of steel, estimated at 180,000 tons for basic materials alone [30][31][33] - The recent publication of the "Rural Road Regulations" is anticipated to release demand for infrastructure upgrades, further benefiting the steel sector [31][33] Investment Recommendations - For the agriculture sector, it is recommended to focus on high-quality pig farming enterprises and monitor cost changes closely. In the steel industry, the focus should be on leading enterprises that can benefit from infrastructure projects and capacity adjustments [26][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the breeding sector is experiencing increased capital inflow, with the breeding ETF (159865) seeing a net inflow of 6 million units and over 200 million yuan in the past three days [1] - In July, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising of pigs improved month-on-month, with pig prices rebounding from a low of 24.1 yuan/kg to a mid-August peak of 21.06 yuan/kg, before experiencing a decline [1] - As of July 16, 2025, the pig price was 14.96 yuan/kg, reflecting an 8% decrease compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The profit from self-breeding pigs was reported at 90.89 yuan per head, while the profit from purchased piglets was negative at -18.66 yuan per head [1] - The number of breeding sows in China was recorded at 40.42 million heads at the end of May, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The breeding sector is expected to maintain a relatively stable average price throughout 2025, with potential variations due to the optimization of costs by leading pig companies and changes in production capacity and market conditions [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a strong upward trend, with the index closing up 0.65% at 3605.73 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21% to 11193.06 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.5% to 2345.37 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 187.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Group 2: Policy and Industry Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is gaining momentum, which is expected to become a sustained investment theme, focusing on the construction of a unified national market and optimizing performance assessment mechanisms for high-quality production [1] - The government has introduced multiple policies to support innovative drugs, with the establishment of a dual-directory model for basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance, which is expected to enhance the commercialization of innovative drugs [2][3] - The establishment of a commercial health insurance directory for innovative drugs is anticipated to provide a supplementary payment channel for drugs not included in the national medical insurance directory, accelerating the commercialization process of innovative results [3] Group 3: Agricultural and Financial Policies - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized the need for further policy measures to prevent significant fluctuations in production and prices in the pig industry, aiming to enhance the overall quality and competitiveness of the industry [3] - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued opinions to increase financial resources for rural revitalization, encouraging financial institutions to support modern rural industries and promote investment in rural development [4] Group 4: State-Owned Enterprises and Data Innovation - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is focusing on high-quality reforms of state-owned enterprises, promoting the optimization of state capital allocation and resisting "involution" competition [5][6] - The National Data Bureau held a meeting to promote the innovative development of local data groups, aiming to enhance service capabilities and support the development of a unified national data market [6] Group 5: Smart Vehicle Development - Shanghai plans to issue demonstration operation licenses for intelligent connected vehicles during the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, allowing public access to Robotaxi services within designated areas [7]

Group 1 - The recent shift in the live pig market is attributed to a change in market sentiment following a period of price increases driven by "anti-involution" expectations, leading to a decline in both live pig futures prices and pork-related stocks [1] - On July 23, the main live pig futures contract peaked at 15,150 yuan/ton but fell to around 14,320 yuan/ton on July 24, marking a decline of over 2% [1] - The pork concept sector in the stock market saw a slight increase on July 24, but after a high opening on July 23, it closed lower, with a cumulative increase of 7.32% from July 1 to the present [1] Group 2 - Concerns about continuous growth in live pig production capacity are prevalent, despite the fact that pig farming has been profitable for 14 consecutive months, leading to a lack of willingness for proactive production cuts [1] - The average price of external three yuan live pigs was 14.4 yuan/kg on July 23, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, indicating slight price declines due to a combination of oversupply and weak demand [1] - The current market is characterized by a tug-of-war between "loose supply and weak demand," with factors such as high temperatures in the north accelerating slaughter and large-scale enterprises increasing output, resulting in short-term supply surges [1] Group 3 - The national regulatory actions have intensified, with a meeting held on July 23 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to discuss high-quality development in the live pig industry, involving major breeding and processing companies [2] - Since the second half of last year, various regulatory measures have been implemented, including a target to reduce the national breeding sow population by 1 million to 39.5 million [2] - The meeting in June set clear regulatory goals, marking the first significant capacity reduction plan since the African swine fever outbreak in 2019 [2] Group 4 - Despite the increasing regulatory policies, market expectations regarding their effectiveness remain cautious, as the existing profits reduce the motivation for companies to cut production [3] - Analysts have differing views on the market outlook, with some expecting a potential rebound in pig prices in the third quarter, while others predict increased supply and seasonal price fluctuations in the second half of the year [3]