宏观研究 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 52 期 沥青开工率明显改善 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数震荡回升。截至 12 月 21 日，该指数为 5.22%，环比前 一周上行 0.06 个点。 2、地产销售：商品房住宅成交面积同比降幅继续收窄。我们统计的 67 个城 市，截至 12 月 26 日当周，商品房成交面积同比为-19%。12 月前 26 日累计同 比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。 3、基建：石油沥青装置开工率改善。截至 12 月 24 当周，开工率为 31.3%， 较上周环比回升 3.7 个点，较去年同期高 5.4 个点。 4、价格：铜价、金价、油价均上涨。COMEX 黄金收于 4546.2 美金/盎司，上 涨 4.6%；LME 三个月铜价收于 12218 美元/吨，上涨 4.1%；美油收于 56.7 美 元/桶，上涨 1.1%，布油收于 60.6 美元/桶，上涨 1.4% （二）景气向下 1、耐用品消费：乘用车零售低位运行。12 月第三周，乘用车零售同比增速- 11%，前值-17%。12 月前三周累计同比-18.8%。11 月全月同比为-8.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is undergoing significant reforms in its delisting system, with keywords for 2025 including "fraud delisting," "occupancy delisting," "voluntary delisting," and "investor protection" [1] - The average position of domestic stock private equity funds remains high at 83.16%, indicating strong confidence among leading private equity investors in the market outlook [1] - The new energy theme funds have shown a remarkable recovery, with an average net value increase of 41.33% over the past year, highlighting structural opportunities in sectors like energy storage and wind power [3] Group 2 - The commercial aerospace sector has seen a surge, with multiple satellite-themed ETFs rising over 10%, while the lithium battery sector remains strong [2] - The total market size of ETFs has surpassed 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of over 60% compared to the end of 2024, with substantial net inflows of 915 billion yuan [2] - The lithium battery separator industry is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation and rising product prices due to increased demand [5] Group 3 - The A+H dual listing model is witnessing explosive growth, with 19 A-share companies successfully listing in Hong Kong in 2025, a 533% increase from 2024 [8] - The film market has achieved a record high in box office revenue for the 2025 holiday season, surpassing 5 billion yuan, driven by a diverse range of film releases [7] - Recent adjustments to real estate policies in Beijing aim to stabilize the market, leading to increased activity in both new and second-hand housing markets [7]

Core Viewpoint - China's merchandise trade surplus continues to rise, while the service trade remains in deficit, with the current account to GDP ratio below 3.5% as of September this year, indicating that external imbalances are not very significant [2] Trade Surplus and Economic Structure - The trade surplus is driven by a downward financial cycle that reallocates resources towards high-efficiency high-end manufacturing, accelerated technological advancements, and a decline in non-trade goods prices due to real estate adjustments, which lowers the intermediate input costs for trade goods and boosts exports [2] - Private sector deleveraging has suppressed demand, leading to a slowdown in imports, while manufacturing upgrades have increased domestic production capabilities, further reducing imports [2] Trade Data Overview - For the period of January to November 2025, China's customs-based merchandise trade surplus reached a record high of $1,075.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21% [3] - Exports during this period amounted to $3,414.7 billion, an increase of $174.6 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate of 5.4%, while imports decreased to $2,338.8 billion, a decline of $13 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate of -0.6% [3] - The trade surplus as a percentage of GDP for the rolling 12 months ending September 2025 was 6.0%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with exports contributing 0.6 percentage points and imports contributing 0.7 percentage points to this increase [3] Regional Trade Surplus - The main regions contributing to China's merchandise trade surplus from January to November 2025 include Hong Kong ($273.2 billion), the EU ($266.9 billion), the US ($257.0 billion), and ASEAN ($246.1 billion) [4] - Conversely, trade deficits were recorded with Taiwan (-$133.4 billion), Australia (-$47.7 billion), South Korea (-$37.3 billion), Russia (-$19.5 billion), and Japan (-$4.3 billion) [4] Product-Specific Trade Surplus - The primary products contributing to China's merchandise trade surplus from January to November 2025 include electrical equipment (HS85) at $352.7 billion, machinery (HS84) at $320.7 billion, vehicles and parts (HS87) at $182.9 billion, furniture (HS94) at $104.4 billion, and uncategorized goods (HS98) at $97.4 billion [5] - In contrast, significant trade deficits were observed in mineral fuels (HS27) at -$354.4 billion, minerals (HS26) at -$239.5 billion, jewelry (HS71) at -$64.0 billion, copper and its products (HS74) at -$50.5 billion, and nuts (HS12) at -$49.4 billion [5] Economic Indicators and Trends - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with the China Real Estate Prosperity Index rising to 95.4, driven by improvements in sales and financing indices [6] - The demand for new and second-hand homes has seen a narrowing decline compared to 2019, indicating a potential stabilization in the housing market [6][7] - The wholesale price index for essential products has shown a slight decrease, while the retail sales of major appliances and passenger vehicles have experienced significant year-on-year declines [8]

专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 过去十年，每年年底我都会发布第二年的十大预言。去年年底发布的2025年十大预言，现在回头来看， 基本上都得到了完美验证，包括美联储延续降息周期、美元指数回落，以及A股和港股走出牛市走势。 人民币也如我预期一样出现升值，现在已经突破7.05，而去年年底是7.4。 那么2026年会怎么走？今天我正式给大家发布2026年十大预言。如果说2025年十大预言和当时市场普遍 看法基本上是反着来的，那么2026年十大预言则是2025年的延续，因为2026年很多宏观条件没有太大变 化，市场表现也是对2025年开启的这轮慢牛、长牛行情的延续。 第一条，美联储延续降息周期，美元指数继续回落，美股逐步见顶回落。这是关于美国货币政策以及美 元、美股的判断。在美国经济增速放缓、通胀已经降下来的情况下，美联储将会继续降息，预计2026年 会降息两次，每次仍是25个基点，这样美国联邦基金利率将降到3%–3.25%。随着美联储降息以及美国 经济增速放缓，美元指数会继续回落。美股经过十几年上涨，估值已处于历史高位，而这轮美股科技牛 行情也逐步呈现出明显泡沫化，关于AI泡沫的讨 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue its strong performance as it approaches the end of 2025, with institutions suggesting a focus on structural opportunities in a fluctuating market [1][6] - The issuance of FOF products has surged to 838.28 billion units this year, marking a historical high, with increased participation from insurance institutions and banks [3][21] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is actively monitoring the application of artificial intelligence in the capital market, aiming to enhance its application level and drive high-quality development [5][23] Group 2 - The industrial sector has shown a cumulative profit growth of 0.1% year-on-year for the first 11 months, with high-tech manufacturing leading the growth [7][25] - The recent regulatory changes in the banking sector aim to enhance supervision and address the complexities in the banking environment, with a focus on improving regulatory effectiveness [2][19] - The recent surge in the number of A-share companies successfully listing in Hong Kong reflects a growing trend, with 19 companies raising over 50% of the total new capital in the Hong Kong market this year [14][33]

转自：贵州日报 贵州医科大学附属医院院长、中山大学附属第一医院贵州医院院长左石，中山大学附属第一医院贵州医 院党委书记、执行院长孙祥宙，新区领导王嶒、李昂参加。 在中山大学附属第一医院贵州医院（贵州医科大学附属医院贵安院区），胡忠雄先后走访医院病房、住 院部等区域，与患者、医务工作者面对面交流。他强调，要加强联动，统筹好建设进度、评审进程，抓 好重点学科专科建设，强化对医院发展的服务保障，更好满足群众就医需求。在新区公共交通有限公 司，胡忠雄认真听取工作汇报，实地察看企业运营情况，叮嘱相关负责人要把群众安全便捷出行放在首 位，因地制宜优化路线，面向旅游业发展需求、定制公交需求、驾培需求挖掘发展潜力，为市民游客提 供更加优质的出行服务。在岐山安置房二期项目，胡忠雄看项目建设、听群众安置情况汇报，关切询问 周边配套、物业管理等方面情况。他强调，要高质量推进项目建设，抓好公共服务配套，不断提升群众 生活品质。在湖南师范大学附属贵安学校，胡忠雄先后走进学生教室、宿舍、实验室，详细了解学校招 生、办学等方面情况。他强调，要提升办学质量，加强教师队伍建设，周密细致做好校园安全各项工 作，推动学校软件、硬件实现同步提升，助 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the emotional journey of selling a home in Beijing, emphasizing that true security comes from within rather than material possessions or high-paying jobs [1]. Group 1: The Decision to Sell - The author describes the moment of signing the sale agreement as lacking the expected emotional weight, feeling more like a detached observer [4]. - The decision to sell the home is framed as a complex choice, moving beyond the binary of "escaping" or "returning" to smaller cities [5]. - The author shares insights from a decade of living in Beijing, highlighting the realization that selling the home was a necessary step towards reclaiming personal freedom [7]. Group 2: The Burden of Homeownership - The narrative discusses how owning a home in Beijing, especially with a mortgage, constrains life choices to a singular focus on financial survival [10]. - Monthly expenses, including mortgage payments, significantly limit disposable income, leading to a "survival mode" lifestyle [12][13]. - The author illustrates the emotional toll of financial constraints, where even simple pleasures become calculated decisions overshadowed by the burden of homeownership [22]. Group 3: Social Dynamics and Identity - Homeownership alters social interactions, shifting conversations from personal interests to practical concerns like school districts and property values [24]. - The author notes a filtering effect on friendships, where connections are increasingly based on shared financial burdens rather than genuine interests [26]. - The realization emerges that the pursuit of homeownership has transformed life into a series of financial calculations, overshadowing personal fulfillment [30]. Group 4: The Illusion of Success - The article critiques the notion of "elite" status associated with high salaries in Beijing, revealing the hidden costs of such a lifestyle [33]. - The author recounts the exhausting work-life balance, where high income does not equate to a high quality of life, leading to health issues and a lack of personal time [46]. - The cycle of working hard to earn money, only to spend it on health recovery and household maintenance, is highlighted as a common plight among urban professionals [47]. Group 5: The Impact of Parenting - The author discusses the pressures of raising children in a competitive environment, where educational success is prioritized over emotional well-being [48]. - The narrative describes the anxiety surrounding children's education, leading to a frantic race to secure the best opportunities for them [60]. - The author expresses a desire to break the cycle of anxiety and competition, aiming to provide a nurturing environment rather than replicating their own stressful experiences [68]. Group 6: The Aftermath of Selling - The decision to sell the home leads to a transformative experience, allowing the family to reclaim their time and redefine their financial priorities [80]. - The new lifestyle in a smaller city fosters a sense of time abundance, enabling the family to engage in meaningful activities together [87]. - The author reflects on the shift in financial perspective, where spending is now aligned with enhancing life experiences rather than merely accumulating wealth [94]. Group 7: Final Reflections - The article concludes with a message about the importance of self-reflection and the courage to change one's circumstances, emphasizing that true wealth lies in relationships and personal fulfillment [112]. - The author encourages others to reassess their lives and not be bound by past investments, advocating for a redefinition of what constitutes valuable assets [120].

Group 1 - The market continues to recover, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3963 points [3] - Recent afternoon surges indicate that buying funds are waiting for short sellers to drive prices down before accumulating shares [4] - The recent appreciation of the RMB beyond 7 signifies a stronger willingness to exchange currency compared to previous years, which may support the economy [7] Group 2 - The RMB's future direction is anticipated to stabilize around 6.9, as rapid appreciation could negatively impact exports and technological innovation [8][10] - The strong willingness to exchange currency this year is mitigated by many companies having hedged their positions, limiting potential losses [10][12] - The monthly customer option buying volume in the banking sector has reached 30 billion USD, doubling from last year [11] Group 3 - Signals to boost domestic demand are becoming more pronounced, with both spot and forward exchange rates showing significant appreciation [15][16] - The current low volatility environment during the RMB's appreciation suggests that large reversals are unlikely, similar to slow bull markets in equities [25][28] - The revaluation period for Chinese assets is expected to open officially [30] Group 4 - The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing is seen as beneficial for the real estate sector, but not necessarily for housing prices [31] - The true intention behind the government's focus on "investing in people" can be understood by observing rental prices, which are leading indicators for housing stability [35][36] - The continuous decline in the REITs index indicates significant rental pressure [37] Group 5 - The A500 ETF has seen increased trading volume, with the leading A500 ETF's transaction volume reaching 53.3 billion [40] - The current market volatility has decreased, suggesting that many short positions in derivatives may convert to long positions in the future [40] - The investment landscape is shifting towards sectors like military and robotics, with insurance stocks reaching new highs and showing a 33% increase this year [40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the transaction area of new and second-hand homes has increased month-on-month, while year-on-year figures show a decline. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized policies to stabilize the real estate market [3][4][61] - The overall direction of the real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with potential for slight fluctuations in housing prices during this process. The report anticipates further stabilization of the market due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies [3][4][61] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focused on winning the battle to ensure housing delivery, with 38 cities initiating self-renovation of old housing. Policies are being implemented to increase the supply of affordable housing and improve the quality of property services [4][12][14] - In Beijing, the social security requirement for non-local buyers to purchase homes has been reduced, and families with two children are allowed to buy multiple properties [4][12][14] Sales Performance - In the 52nd week of 2025, the transaction area of residential properties in 68 major cities reached 3.1 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 8% but a year-on-year decline of 39%. Cumulatively, the transaction area for the year is 118.7 million square meters, down 19% year-on-year [5][17][36] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 cities was 198,000 square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 23% but a month-on-month increase [36] Investment Trends - In the 52nd week of 2025, the total planned land area released in 100 major cities was 1.907 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 8.172 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The average transaction premium rate was 1.2% [42][44] - The transaction area for land in first-tier cities decreased by 33% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 36% decline. However, third-tier cities experienced a 5% increase in land transaction area [42][44] Financing Conditions - The issuance of domestic credit bonds decreased by 1% month-on-month, totaling 4.29 billion yuan, with an average weighted interest rate of 2.23%, down 16 basis points [6][49][51] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds for the year is 406.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1% [49][54] Market Performance - The real estate index increased by 1.91% in the week of December 22-26, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.95% [56][59] - The report identifies top-performing real estate stocks, including Hualian Holdings and Shoukai Shares, while also noting underperformers like Shijie Holdings [59][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the year-on-year net signed area for second-hand homes, with a decrease of 30% compared to the previous year, which is an expansion of 15 percentage points from November [4]. - In contrast, the year-on-year decline in the net signed area for new homes has narrowed to 26%, improving by 9 percentage points from November [4]. - The central economic work conference has shifted its focus from "greater efforts to stabilize the real estate market" to "focusing on stabilizing the real estate market," suggesting potential support for urban renewal and housing fund reforms [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the difference between net rental yields and mortgage rates as a key observation for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [6]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - The year-on-year decline in new home net signed area has narrowed, with the average area signed in sample cities showing improvement compared to the past four years [10][11]. - The report indicates that the new home market is experiencing a more favorable supply-demand environment compared to the second-hand market [6]. Second-Hand Home Market - The year-on-year decline in second-hand home net signed area has expanded, with the average area signed in sample cities remaining at a relatively high level compared to the last five years [15][18]. - The report notes that the average viewing numbers for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities have decreased year-on-year, indicating a potential slowdown in market activity [43]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to November has seen a year-on-year decline of 14%, with the average transaction price showing a narrower increase of 7% [22]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of unsold land parcels, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [33]. Market Liquidity - The report assesses liquidity indicators, noting a tightening in macro-level liquidity in December, which may impact market conditions [47]. - The proportion of listings with price increases has decreased slightly, indicating a cautious market sentiment [48]. Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates an increase in the unsold inventory of new homes, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening compared to October [33]. - The report also highlights that the de-stocking cycles for first and second-tier cities have increased, suggesting a potential slowdown in sales [33].