Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook on industrial and precious metals, particularly gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, lithium, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a potential decline in the US dollar index [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4302.7 and $61.1 per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1% and 4.5% respectively. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and plans for further easing are expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Hunan Gold due to their potential in the rising gold market [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown mixed performance, with LME copper closing at $11552.5 per ton, down 1.05% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose by 2.63% to 94020 yuan per ton. Supply constraints and fluctuating demand are expected to maintain price elasticity [2][3] - The report recommends monitoring companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper for investment opportunities in the copper sector [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have been volatile, with LME aluminum closing at $2875.0 per ton, down 0.40%. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity but highlights ongoing demand resilience in sectors like automotive and electricity [3][11] - Suggested companies for investment include Nanshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao due to their positioning in the aluminum market [3] Tin - Tin prices have surged, with SHFE tin contracts reaching 332720 yuan per ton, up 5.09%. Supply disruptions from conflict-affected regions are contributing to tight raw material availability [3][8] - Companies such as Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Holdings are recommended for their potential in the tin market [8] Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with significant regulatory adjustments expected to impact supply. The report anticipates a potential new price increase cycle for rare earths due to supply shortages and policy changes [9] - Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as key players in this sector [9][10] Cobalt - Cobalt prices are currently around 409,000 yuan per ton, with supply constraints expected to tighten further due to export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The report maintains a positive outlook on cobalt prices [10] - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium for their strategic positioning in the cobalt market [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold prices have slightly increased this week, but the intensity of the increase is limited, with a higher probability of range - bound fluctuations. The 10 - year TIPS has risen to 1.93%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate has fallen to 4.19%. The recent price correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned [4][5]. - Silver prices have fluctuated significantly this week. Although there was a small accumulation of futures inventory, the accumulation was limited, and the TD deferred fee remained in the state of short - paying - long. The overseas Lease rate rebounded moderately. The risk of short - squeeze in silver at home and abroad in December is limited, but there is a greater risk of price increase from January to March 2026. After the price recently reached $65, it may enter a shock adjustment stage [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 2.45%, and London silver rose 11.02%. The gold - silver ratio fell from 72.2 last week to 66.6. The gold - silver price ranges are 950 - 990 yuan/gram for gold and 13,700 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 30.515 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 27.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to - 0.165 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 1.03 dollars/ounce [11][17]. - Domestically, the gold futures - spot spread was - 5.86 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 29 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.28 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 7 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [23][26][30][33]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.66 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.7%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 115.42 tons to 137,581 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory increased by 132 tons to 802 tons [42][44][48]. - **Positions** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while the non - commercial net - long position of silver decreased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.82 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 0.2 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 177 tons [50][53][57]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned this week, and the 10YTIPS has continued to decline [66]. - Information on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70][73][78][80].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have shown remarkable performance in the asset class this year, with gold prices rising by 60% and silver prices more than doubling [1]. Group 1: Precious Metal Performance - As of December 12, gold prices approached previous highs, with London gold rising by 0.47% to $4299.29 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 63.83%. In contrast, silver prices fell by 2.5% to $61.92 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 114.35% [3][4]. - The London silver market experienced a significant drop, with intraday declines exceeding 3%, and COMEX silver futures closing down by 3.88% [4]. Group 2: Institutional Outlook on Gold and Silver - Institutions continue to favor gold, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by increased demand for gold as a risk diversification tool amid global economic uncertainties [7][8]. - Carsten Menke from Swiss Bank highlighted two factors that could trigger a renewed surge in silver prices: its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. However, he expressed caution regarding the sustainability of silver's price increase [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The investment demand for gold is expected to remain robust against the backdrop of slowing U.S. economic growth, declining interest rates, and a weakening dollar, although gold's recent performance has lagged behind silver [7]. - The World Gold Council anticipates that ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties will continue to influence the gold market, with potential for gold prices to fluctuate within a range unless significant economic changes occur [8].

摘要随着美联储连续第三次降息25个基点，周五(12月12日)国际黄金大幅上涨，盘中触及4352.99高点， 尾盘最终报收4300美元附近。这一轮黄金行情的爆发，不仅源于美元走软和通胀压力持续，还受到了即 将公布的非农就业报告以及全球地缘政治动荡的推动，多重利好共振下，国际金价突破前期震荡区间， 4300美元整数关口成为短期市场关注的焦点。 随着美联储连续第三次降息25个基点，周五(12月12日)国际黄金大幅上涨，盘中触及4352.99高点，尾盘 最终报收4300美元附近。这一轮黄金行情的爆发，不仅源于美元走软和通胀压力持续，还受到了即将公 布的非农就业报告以及全球地缘政治动荡的推动，多重利好共振下，国际金价突破前期震荡区间，4300 美元整数关口成为短期市场关注的焦点。 【要闻速递】 黄金牛市的持续推进，核心驱动力源于美联储政策走向与市场预期的深度绑定。本周美联储会议结束 后，即便会议基调略超预期偏鹰派，市场对宽松政策的预期仍未消减，这种预期直接转化为金价上行的 推力。而这一趋势的转折点可追溯至过往政策信号的释放：2023年12月美联储首次释放2024年降息预 期，黄金价格成功突破此前三年半压制其上行的200 ...

今年以来，贵金属在大类资产中表现格外抢眼。其中，金价年内大涨60%，银价更是翻倍有余。 在连续多日上涨后，金银走势再次出现分化，银价突发剧烈调整。展望明年，机构显然更加看好黄金，高盛甚至喊出4900美 元/盎司。 相对白银，机构显然更加看好黄金。高盛认为，如果家庭或机构能够切实增加黄金持有量以作为风险分散手段，尤其是在全 球宏观经济形势充满不确定性的情况下，包括对财政前景的担忧时，那么这些资金流入可能会"大幅推高"小规模黄金市场的 价格。该行预测，到2026年底，黄金价格将达到4900美元/盎司，但同时表示，如果私营不满的购买量超出近年来一直主导需 求的央行范围，那么这一预测还将存在"显著的上涨风险"。 世界黄金协会出，2025年黄金表现卓越，全年创下逾50次历史新高，累计涨幅超60%。这一强劲表现得益于多重因素的共同推 动，包括地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧、美元走弱以及持续上涨的金价势能。投资者与各经济体央行纷纷增持黄金，以寻求 资产的多元与稳定。 黄金逼近前高 当地时间12月12日，海外贵金属市场呈现冲高回落，黄金守住涨势、逼近前高，银价收盘大跌。伦敦金当日上涨0.47%报 4299.29美元/盎司，伦敦银 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine unexpectedly refused to sign the 28-point peace agreement under pressure from the US and Russia, indicating a shift in geopolitical dynamics and raising questions about investment strategies, particularly in gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Dynamics - The 28-point peace plan proposed by the Trump administration essentially demands Ukraine to make territorial concessions for peace, which is viewed as a one-sided concession plan [2]. - The US set a clear deadline of November 27 to pressure Ukraine into compliance, aiming to quickly disengage from the conflict for political and economic benefits [4]. - Ukraine's refusal to sign the agreement, despite facing battlefield difficulties, is influenced by a timely European response that shifted the balance of power, with European nations opposing forced territorial concessions [4][6]. Group 2: European Interests - Europe is concerned about the long-term implications of the Ukraine conflict, including refugee crises, energy challenges, and high inflation, which could destabilize the region if Ukraine is significantly weakened [6]. - Following high-level talks between the US and Ukraine, there was a slight shift in the situation, with Ukraine maintaining its sovereignty and territorial integrity while showing some flexibility on specific border issues [6][8]. Group 3: Investment Implications - The ongoing geopolitical tensions have reignited interest in gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, with its value expected to rise amid uncertainty [10]. - Investors are advised to allocate 5%-10% of their portfolios to gold to hedge against geopolitical risks and stabilize overall asset volatility [12]. - The likelihood of a comprehensive peace agreement is low, suggesting that any potential negative impact on gold prices from such an agreement would be short-lived [14]. Group 4: Long-term Gold Strategy - The fundamental logic supporting gold remains unchanged, with global monetary conditions and expectations of a nearing end to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes likely to weaken the dollar and boost gold prices [15]. - A long-term investment approach to gold is recommended, focusing on gradual accumulation rather than short-term speculation, with a preference for liquid and low-cost gold ETFs [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the gold market in 2025, with record high demand and prices, driven by solid investment demand and central bank purchases [2][3] - In 2025, global gold demand reached 3,640 tons, marking a historical high, with investment demand, particularly in physical gold bars and gold ETFs, becoming the dominant force [2] - Central banks continue to purchase gold as part of a strategy to diversify foreign exchange reserves, providing ongoing support for gold prices despite a slight moderation in buying pace [2][3] Group 2 - The dual attributes of gold as both a metal and a financial asset are emphasized, with consumption demand influenced by economic growth and investment demand sensitive to risk and uncertainty [3] - The article notes that the dynamics of the Asian market, especially China, have become key variables in global gold price fluctuations, enhancing market liquidity [3] - For 2026, four scenarios for gold price trends are outlined, ranging from stable growth to potential significant increases in the event of a global recession [4][7] Group 3 - Key variables impacting the gold market in 2026 include the pace of central bank gold purchases, sustained demand from the Chinese market, and global economic and geopolitical risks [7] - The strategic allocation value of gold remains significant in uncertain environments, suggesting it should be an important component of asset portfolios for risk hedging [7]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional pricing framework of the gold market has been disrupted, and under new driving forces, gold prices still have upward potential, presenting both opportunities and challenges across different segments of the industry [1][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market has entered a new paradigm where the time required for gold prices to break the $1,000 mark has decreased from decades to months, indicating a shift away from traditional pricing logic dominated by real interest rates or the dollar [2][9]. - Geopolitical factors, the global central banks' reshaping of reserve assets, and the new normal of gold moving in sync with risk assets contribute to a more complex pricing model [2][9]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The rise in gold prices has led to a rapid increase in the consumption of investment-grade gold products and a surge in gold buyback businesses, benefiting physical enterprises, although they face challenges such as rising transaction costs and pressure on profit margins [3][10]. Group 3: Financial Services Evolution - Commercial banks are transitioning from simple product providers to comprehensive service solution providers, emphasizing the role of gold in cross-border financial transactions [4][12]. - The long-term value of gold as an asset class is highlighted, with recommendations for investors to view gold as a stabilizing asset in their portfolios [4][12]. - Accumulated gold and gold ETFs are expected to remain mainstream investment options for individuals and institutions in 2026, with physical gold bars being advantageous for long-term holding [4][12]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The consensus among experts is that gold prices are expected to remain strong in 2026, with potential to challenge a new high of $4,750 per ounce in the first half of the year, followed by a moderate trend but with strong support around $4,500 per ounce [6][13].

Group 1 - The love for gold among Chinese people is deeply rooted in their culture, symbolizing wealth and status, and it remains significant despite global changes [1] - Gold has evolved from merely a symbol of wealth to a recognized safe-haven asset, especially during economic instability [5] - The disparity in gold reserves among countries reflects their economic status and strength, with the U.S. having a substantial advantage [10][12] Group 2 - The U.S. gold reserves, established during the Bretton Woods system, play a crucial role in maintaining its global economic dominance, currently amounting to 8,133 tons [14][20] - China's gold reserves, as of July this year, stand at approximately 2,264.33 tons, which is less than Russia's reserves, highlighting a gap in national reserves despite high domestic demand [22][24] - The informal gold reserves held by Chinese citizens are estimated to be between 120,000 to 160,000 tons, significantly surpassing the official reserves and even the U.S. reserves [30]

潮起海南，金耀未来。12月11日，由中国黄金协会与世界黄金协会联合主办的2025中国（三亚）国际黄 金市场年会，在海南省三亚市成功举办。本届年会旨在贯彻落实党中央关于高质量建设海南自由贸易港 的决策部署，以政策为桥、以产业为脉、以合作为魂，为海南自由贸易港打造国际黄金产业高地注入强 劲动能。 中国黄金协会党委书记严弟勇在主持开幕式时指出，本届年会恰逢海南自由贸易港即将封关运作的战略 节点择址三亚召开，绝非行业单一活动的简单落地，而是立足"国之大者"、贯彻党中央决策部署、服 务"两个毫不动摇"，以产业之力赋能海南自由贸易港高质量建设的重大实践，意义深远而非凡。 他强调，建设海南自由贸易港是习近平总书记亲自谋划、亲自部署、亲自推动的重大国家战略，是党中 央在新时代全面深化改革开放的重大决策，更是我国坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放、推动建设开放型世 界经济的标志性举措。当前，三亚市凭借独特的政策优势和区位潜力，全力推进工业提质增效，重点布 局黄金珠宝产业园等核心平台，加速产业链供应链集聚融合和能级跃升，成为投资兴业的新前沿和黄金 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 行业国际化的重要门户。本 ...