今日银行板块受一季度业绩影响，集体承压回调，截至收盘，邮储银行跌2.29%，交通银行跌1.32%，建设银行跌3.21%，农业银行跌3.04%，中 国银行跌2.98%，工商银行跌3.58%，招商银行跌3%。 临近假期，先祝大家五一小长假能够玩的开心。今天是4月最后一个交易日，4月份你赚到钱了吗？ 今天沪指跌0.23%，深成指涨0.51%，创指涨0.83%。个股涨多跌少，上涨个股超3400只。 盘面上，华为盘古、智谱AI、兵装重组概念板块涨幅居前，保险、银行、电力板块跌幅居前。 板块方面，AI概念股持续强势，人形机器人，消费电子板块迎来不错的反弹；银行股集体调整。 01 一季报业绩下滑，银行集体下跌 | XD邮储银 | 5.12 | -2.29% | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪 SH601658 财报 除权除息 | | | | 交通银行 | 7.47 | -1.32% | | 沪 SH601328 财报 | | | | 建设银行 | 9.06 | -3.21% | | 沪SH601939 财报 | | | | 农业银行 | 5.42 | -3.04% | | 沪 SH601288 财报 | | ...

伊利股份 一、生意质量：草原雄狮也有打盹时 2024年营收1158亿同比降8%，扣非净利润60.11亿同比跌40%。这数据让老巴想起他的名言："只有当潮 水退去时，你才知道谁在裸泳"。 近期，越来越多的上市公司的财报密集披露，其中也有不少是研究院所跟踪覆盖过的。一些着重关注的 公司，我们已提前在价投圈内以文字形式做过点评，圈友们看过的话应该早已心里有底。 今天的文章，证星研究院部分结合"问小巴"工具，一起同大家再来看一看，伊利股份（600887）、美的 集团（000333）、贵州茅台（600519）。 乳业赛道看似刚需，但伊利这份成绩单显示： 以下为主要内容(内容结合问小巴)： 一是乳制品行业增速已降至个位数，二是销售费用率若维持19%，利润增速可能被"营销黑洞"吞噬。 亮点在于合同负债120.7亿(预收款)，同比增38%，经销商提前打款热情不减，渠道掌控力仍是王牌。但 存货107亿同比降14%，去库存效果显著，这草原雄狮至少没被库存压垮。 四、风险预警：别被草原风光迷了眼 三、估值拷问：22.5倍PE值不值？ 成本端压力山大：销售费用高达219.8亿(占营收19%)，比研发费用(8.7亿)多25倍，这钱砸得 ...

A股乳业板块异动拉升，皇氏集团涨超6%，贝因美、伊利股份、西部牧业、一鸣食品、麦趣尔、熊猫 乳品纷纷上涨。 ...

在行业逆风期，乳业龙头以一份"韧性十足、质地卓越"的业绩答卷，再次展现稳健与确定性底 色。 4月2 9日，伊利股份（6 0 0 8 8 7 .SH）发布2 0 2 4年年报及2 0 2 5年一季报：2 0 2 4年实现营业总收 入11 5 7 . 8 0亿元，稳居亚洲乳业第一，剔除商誉减值后净利润11 5 . 3 9亿元，增长1 2 . 2%，经营 规模与经营质量双领跑；2 0 2 5年一季度，实现营业总收入3 3 0 . 1 8亿元，同比增长1 . 3 5%，扣 非归母净利4 6 . 2 9亿元，同比增长2 4 . 1 9%，逆势双增，业绩企稳向好。可以看出，通过主动 调整，甩掉包袱后的伊利，将轻装上阵，快速迈入新增长轨道。 在行业承压的大环境下，伊利的这份成绩单尤为难得。而透过这份"量质双优"的财报可以看 出 ， 伊 利 正 以 品 质 为 基 石 ， 持 续 激 活 创 新 、 数 智 化 、 可 持 续 发 展 等 长 期 战 略 锚 点 的 乘 数 效 应，在迈向全球乳业第一的征程中越跑越稳、越跑越强。 向内挖潜提质效： 经营质量进阶展现龙头实力 作为目前唯一营收超千亿的中国乳企，伊利不仅规模优势稳 ...

Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the leading dairy company in Asia [1] - The net profit, excluding goodwill impairment, was 11.539 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 21.74 billion yuan, an increase of 18.86% compared to the previous year [1] Industry Overview - The dairy consumption demand faced some suppression due to economic slowdown, low consumer confidence, and short-term imbalances in raw milk supply and demand [1] - Despite these challenges, dairy products are considered essential consumer goods, indicating a degree of inelastic demand [1] - The industry is expected to experience healthier and more sustainable development as raw milk supply and demand return to balance [1] Company Operations - The company is engaged in the production and sales of various dairy products and health drinks, including liquid milk, milk beverages, milk powder, yogurt, frozen drinks, cheese, and packaged drinking water [1] - The company holds the leading market share in liquid dairy products and adult milk powder, as well as maintaining its position as the top player in the ice cream market for 30 consecutive years [1] Innovation and R&D - The company adheres to the principle of "Yili means quality," focusing on consumer-centric approaches, accelerating technological and product innovation, and optimizing its business portfolio [2] - In 2024, the company's R&D expenditure was 870 million yuan, the highest among listed companies in the dairy industry [2] - The company continuously launches new products based on consumer demand, with new product revenue accounting for 15.1% of total revenue [5] Technological Advancements - The company initiated an AI application platform for breast milk research to enhance formula development efficiency and accelerate product iteration [5] - The deployment of generative AI capabilities includes the creation of the dairy industry's first large model product, YILI-GPT, and the establishment of a new intelligent platform, YILI-Agent, to support intelligent operations and innovation breakthroughs [5] Profit Distribution - The company announced a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share (including tax), with a total proposed cash dividend amounting to 7.726 billion yuan, representing 91.4% of the net profit for the period [5]

Core Viewpoint - In a challenging industry environment, Yili Group demonstrates resilience and strong performance with impressive financial results, showcasing its robust operational quality and strategic adjustments to drive growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Yili achieved a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the leading dairy company in Asia, with a net profit of 11.54 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 12.2% after excluding goodwill impairment [1] - In Q1 2025, Yili reported a revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit of 4.63 billion yuan, marking a significant growth of 24.19% [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 increased by 131 basis points to 34.03%, indicating enhanced profitability, while operating cash flow reached 21.74 billion yuan, up 18.86% [2]. Shareholder Returns - Yili plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.73 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 91.4%, setting a new historical high [3] - The total shareholder return, including dividends and share buybacks, reached 100.4% of profits, reflecting strong cash flow and management confidence in long-term growth [3]. Business Diversification - Yili's strategy to enhance business balance through a three-tier business matrix is aimed at building resilience against market cycles [4]. - The liquid milk and ice cream segments remain strong, with liquid milk revenue reaching 75.00 billion yuan, maintaining the top industry position [5]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment achieved a revenue of 29.68 billion yuan, growing by 7.53%, contributing to Yili's competitive advantage [5]. Innovation and Sustainability - Yili emphasizes a "quality × N" strategy, integrating innovation, digitalization, and sustainability to drive long-term value [9]. - The company operates 15 R&D centers globally, enhancing its innovation capabilities in dairy products [10]. - Yili's commitment to sustainable development is evident in its initiatives in green practices, rural revitalization, and social welfare, positioning it as a leader in sustainable dairy practices [12].

在传统牧业中，人工挤奶易受污染、效率低下的问题长期存在。央牧以科技为刃，破解行业痛点，透 支1200万元建设的现代化产业园区，引进了瑞典利拉伐并列式挤奶设备与帝波罗智慧牧场管理系统， 实现从挤奶到储存的全流程智能化管控，有效提升了奶源质量和生产效率。 依托先进的真空挤奶技术，央牧隔绝了羊奶与外界的接触。挤奶前，每只奶山羊均需通过严格的健康 筛查与奶质检验，仅合格奶源可进入专业储奶罐，从源头杜绝污染风险。鲜奶挤出后，通过全程冷链 运输，10分钟直达加工厂，确保羊奶的新鲜与醇香。这种"科技+严苛"的双重保障，让央牧成为消费 者心中"真羊乳"的代名词。 八百里秦川，沃野千里。作为中国羊乳产业的核心腹地，陕西关中平原凭借得天独厚的地理环境与气 候条件，孕育了全球瞩目的黄金奶源带。在这片被誉为"中国羊奶之乡"的土地上，央牧乳业扎根生态 牧场，匠心构建全产业链布局与现代化生产体系，并以"央牧"品牌为载体，奋力书写中国有机羊乳产 业的新篇章。 黄金奶源：从牧草到水源的天然馈赠 优质奶源的诞生，离不开自然的馈赠与科学的培育。央牧将奶源基地选址于关中嵯峨山脚下，这里气 候温润、水草丰美，是萨能奶山羊的理想栖息地。作为全球公认的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by changes in population structure, particularly a decline in newborn numbers, prompting companies to shift from passive responses to proactive strategies, including substantial fertility subsidy programs aimed at stimulating birth rates and consumer potential [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The infant formula market has shrunk from 188.5 billion yuan in 2020 to 157.2 billion yuan in 2023, with newborn numbers dropping to 9.02 million in 2023, nearly halving since 2016 [3][4]. - Major dairy companies like Feihe and Yili have launched substantial fertility subsidy plans, with Feihe committing 1.2 billion yuan and Yili 1.6 billion yuan to support eligible families [4][5]. - The introduction of these subsidies is a strategic response to a shrinking market, with companies aiming to capture consumer demand from pregnancy through early childhood [4][6]. Group 2: Competitive Strategies - The competition among dairy companies has shifted from price wars to subsidy wars, with a focus on user engagement and long-term customer relationships [5][6]. - Companies are leveraging these subsidies to bypass traditional retail channels, directly reaching consumers and reducing the influence of intermediaries [6][7]. - The trend of declining mother-baby retail stores, which have seen a 40% reduction in numbers over the past five years, has prompted companies to innovate their business models [6][8]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The high subsidies represent a "capital game" among leading firms, with market concentration increasing as the top five companies' market share rose by 7 percentage points to 68% in 2023 [8]. - Smaller regional brands face challenges in competing with the financial power of larger companies, leading to a potential reduction in their market presence [8]. - The long-term success of these subsidy initiatives will depend on the companies' ability to convert short-term incentives into lasting consumer loyalty through product quality and service [8].

| [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 9858 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 2.54/1.06 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 87.98 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 2.26 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 87.98 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 3,892.73 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 24FY 实现营业收入 201.0 亿元，同比+7.5%，实现股东应占亏损 6.91 亿元，去年同期为亏损 10.50 亿元。据此推算，公司 24H2 实现营业收入 100.5 亿元，同比+4.6%，实现股东应占亏损 3.6 亿元， 去年同期为亏损 0.58 亿元。 分析判断: ► 原料奶业务增长，反刍动物养殖解决方案业务承压 证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 现金 EBITDA 表现亮眼，期待原奶周期反转 [Table_Title2] 优 ...

Key Insights - The aluminum industry is experiencing a favorable macroeconomic environment with reduced tariff pressures and positive policy signals from both the US and China [4][10] - The demand for aluminum products is showing structural recovery, driven by new orders leading to increased inventory needs ahead of the May holiday [6][7] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, with production costs slightly increasing, while inventory levels are decreasing [5][10] - The prices of key materials such as metal chromium, polymer MDI, and acetamide are on the rise, indicating a potential boom in the chromium salt cycle [18][27] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability among leading companies [22][23] Company Summaries Aluminum Industry - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum is approximately 16,582 RMB/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase [5] - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory has decreased to 658,000 tons, reflecting a 3.1% drop week-on-week [5] - The aluminum processing sector is witnessing a notable increase in inventory depletion rates, with a current inventory of aluminum rods at 177,800 tons [7] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is seeing a tightening supply of phosphorous ore, with companies like Baitian Co. expanding production capacity significantly [21] - The chemical industry is projected to benefit from a replenishment cycle in 2025, with major companies expected to see improved performance due to cost advantages and market share growth [22][23] - The prices of key chemical products, including metal chromium and polymer MDI, have increased significantly, indicating strong demand and supply constraints [27][28] Data Center Services - Aofei Data reported a 62.18% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue up 40.62% year-on-year [11][12] - The company is expanding its IDC services, with over 43,000 operational cabinets, benefiting from increased capital expenditure in the internet sector [14][16] - The projected revenue for Aofei Data for 2025-2027 is expected to grow significantly, with a "buy" rating assigned based on its market position and growth potential [16]