Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventory, with a strong trend, but the terminal finished product inventory pressure is accumulating in the off - season, which may limit the upside space of cotton prices. The far - month has a high - yield expectation, and the change of Sino - US tariffs after August 1st needs attention [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0629 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0675 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory, it is recommended to sell CF2509 futures at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509C14400 call options at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. - For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy CF2509 futures at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509P13600 put options at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. Core Contradictions - Domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing and low inventory in the short - term, but the terminal inventory pressure and far - month high - yield expectation may limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to the import quota policy and Sino - US tariffs [4]. 利多解读 - Cotton imports have decreased significantly this year, and the de - stocking of Xinjiang cotton is fast. The national cotton industrial and commercial inventory is 342.45 million tons as of July 15, with an expected tight - balance at the end of the year [5]. - Post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. 利空解读 - Downstream gauze factories continue to reduce production, and the terminal sales are not smooth, with the inventory of grey cloth accumulating [6]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [6]. Futures and Price Index - Cotton 01 closed at 14,030, up 40 (0.29%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,990, up 45 (0.32%); Cotton 09 closed at 14,225, up 40 (0.28%); Yarn 01 closed at 20,235, up 20 (0.1%); Yarn 05 closed at 20,190, unchanged; Yarn 09 closed at 20,430, up 40 (0.2%) [7][8]. - The cotton basis is 1,324, down 80; Cotton 01 - 05 is 40, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 is - 235, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 is 195, unchanged; The cotton - yarn spread is 6,215, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread is 1,797, up 104; The domestic - foreign yarn spread is - 444, unchanged [9]. - CCI 3128B is 15,549, down 40 (- 0.26%); CCI 2227B is 13,638, down 37 (- 0.27%); CCI 2129B is 15,866, down 28 (- 0.18%); FCI Index S is 13,886, down 99 (- 0.71%); FCI Index M is 13,693, down 99 (- 0.72%); FCI Index L is 13,432, down 99 (- 0.73%) [10].

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月22日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌-0.40%,成交量11.59万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净多，差额头寸为2187手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交13.10万手，比上一日新增57手。全合约前20席位多头持仓12.62万手，比上一日增加2104手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓12.67万手，比上一日增加1970手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓29083、国泰君安，总持仓17403、东证期货，总持仓9830；空头前三席位 为中信期货，总持仓15831、国泰君安，总持仓13323、东证期货，总持仓13065； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓13763、增仓693，国金期货、持仓6303、增仓576，平安期货、持 仓7585、增仓423；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信建投、持仓1540、减仓-806，海通期货、持仓1359、减仓-216，中金财富、持仓 937、减仓-168； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓12359、增仓2320，国泰君安、持仓11798、增仓724，东证期货、 持 ...

| | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 壇减 | 会员 | 持买車 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 10,842 | 2,403 | 银河期货 | 4,229 | -835 | 中信期货 | 3,634 | -JT | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 9,322 | 1,737 | 国泰君安 | 3,423 | g | 方正中期 | 3,072 | J8 | | 3 | 银河期货 | 5,667 | 2,905 | 中信期货 | 3,076 | -723 | 物产中大 | 2,718 | -243 | | 4 | 东证期货 | 4,571 | 266 | 永安期货 | 1,650 | -847 | 国泰君安 | 2,562 | 141 | | 5 | 华泰期货 | 4,019 | 2,035 | 东证期货 | 1,514 | -163 | 花拳期货 | 2,055 | -373 | | 6 | 广发期货 | 3,407 | 1,649 | 走拳期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in precious metal prices are influenced by market sentiment driven by tariff policies, with gold and silver showing mixed performance amid ongoing uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Precious metal prices have shown slight divergence, with gold experiencing repeated fluctuations and silver showing a slight upward trend, primarily due to strong commodity prices [1]. - The London gold price has been oscillating between $3100 and $3500 per ounce since late April, with reduced demand for gold as a safe haven due to the cooling international trade situation and U.S. fiscal expansion [2]. - The U.S. dollar's recent decline has supported gold prices, with New York gold surpassing the $3400 mark, indicating strong upward momentum [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Standard Chartered Bank noted that the net long positions in gold have remained around 31%, driven by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, which support gold demand [3]. - Kitco Metals highlighted that the recent strong performance of gold was catalyzed by a significant weakening of the U.S. dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, creating an ideal environment for gold price increases [4]. - Concerns over rising U.S. debt continue to bolster interest in gold, as it is seen as a hedge against uncertainty in the current market conditions [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Tin prices have risen passively, and there is still some pressure above [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 267,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.51%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.4% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4] 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 3.3 South China's View - The rise of tin prices on Monday was mainly due to the impact of anti - involution on the entire non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals of tin itself have not changed. In the short term, considering the imminent outflow of Burmese ore and no sign of further improvement in tin downstream demand, the view that the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support still holds [7] 3.4 Tin Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 267,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - one is 267,470 yuan/ton, also with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - three is 267,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME Tin 3M is 33,355 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars or 0.86%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, up 0.04 or 0.51% [8][9] 3.4.2 Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan or 0.26%. The 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or - 16.67%. The 40% tin concentrate is 253,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.47%. The 60% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan or - 0.46%. The 60A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 172,250 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.58%. The 63A solder bar in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 179,750 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan or - 0.55%. The lead - free solder is 271,250 yuan/ton, down 1500 yuan or - 0.55% [16][17] 3.5 Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,228.79 yuan/ton, down 684.78 yuan or 4.41%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [19] 3.6 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6817 tons, up 104 tons or 1.55%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4524 tons, up 122 tons or 2.77%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1412 tons, down 8 tons or - 0.56%. The total LME tin inventory is 1935 tons, down 100 tons or - 4.91% [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening the spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, pressuring coking profits. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. - This week, iron ore prices rebounded strongly, shrinking the immediate steel profits, but the steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little intention to voluntarily reduce hot metal production, resulting in strong procurement demand for coking coal and coke. - In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the long - term, the sharp rise in furnace materials poses a potential threat to steel mill profitability, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined significantly, and inventory accumulation in Tangshan has accelerated, which may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - In terms of operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 850 - 1130, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1450 - 1650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13%. [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when entering the market at 1650 - 1700 and 50% at 1700 - 1750. [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased by 897 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 293 tons, coking coal decreased by 500 hands, and silicon manganese decreased by 1177 sheets. - **Increase in Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron increased by 200 sheets. - **No Change in Inventory**: The inventory of iron ore and coke remained unchanged. [3] 3.4 Core Contradiction - Short - term: The combination of speculative and rigid demand supports the prices of coking coal and coke, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. - Long - term: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not last. Steel billet export and inventory issues may trigger negative feedback. [4] 3.5利多解读 - The "Supply - side 2.0" has affected market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a per - ton profit of over 100, and hot metal production in July is unlikely to decrease. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [5] 3.6利空解读 - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production ahead of schedule. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal has increased, leading to greater pressure on future arrivals at ports. [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: The spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads have shown various changes. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 0.5 compared to the previous day and 6.5 compared to the previous week. - **Coke**: Similar price, basis, and spread changes are observed. The coke 09 - 01 spread decreased by 6 compared to the previous day and 7 compared to the previous week. - **Other Ratios**: The coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio also changed. [6]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月21日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 39.2% | 4.34% | 96.8% | 0.6% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 44.48% | -1.47% | 81.61% | -3.6% | | 行 为 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | 向 | | | | | | | 库 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来锁定利 | 主力合约 | 卖出 | 依据计划 | | | | 润，弥补企业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trading performance of glass futures, with the main contract 2509 experiencing a price increase of 7.12% as of July 21, 2025, and a total trading volume of 4.83 million contracts [1][3] - The total trading volume for all glass futures contracts reached 4.83 million contracts, with an increase of 1.99 million contracts compared to the previous day [1][4] - The top 20 positions in the glass futures market show a net short position, with a difference of 199,388 contracts [1][3] Group 2 - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan with a total holding of 92,492 contracts, followed by Fangzheng Futures with 71,301 contracts, and CITIC Futures with 64,371 contracts [1][4] - The top three short positions are also led by Guotai Junan with 210,469 contracts, followed by Yong'an Futures with 115,224 contracts, and CITIC Futures with 113,332 contracts [1][4] - The long positions in the top 20 show a decrease of 74,200 contracts, while the short positions decreased by 14,270 contracts compared to the previous day [1][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. It is estimated that there is a high possibility that the overall market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are selling well, while the price of stored apples is dropping and they are not selling well [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for apples is 7650 - 7950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 1.4% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a national bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, they can short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7900 - 7950 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory and a new - crop apple减产, with a short spot position, they can buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the disk. The market is likely to be volatile from June to August. Early - maturing apples have a higher opening price than last year and sell well, while stored apples have falling prices and poor sales [4]. Bullish Factors - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster - than - usual de - stocking speed have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the market [5]. - Unstable weather in the producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing areas is poor, and there may be a significant减产 [8]. Bearish Factors - The overall减产 amplitude from bagging data is less than expected, and some data even shows an expected increase in production [8]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits like watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. Also, high - priced apples face a situation of "high price but no market", indicating weak consumption [6][8]. Apple Inventory and Market Data - On July 18, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 80.6 (with a weekly change of - 10.89), and according to Zhuochuang was 100.07 (with a weekly change of - 8.76). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu also decreased [9]. - The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong showed changes, such as 18 vehicles at Guangdong Chalong (a weekly increase of 2) [9]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On July 18, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) are provided, as well as the prices and price changes of different grades of spot apples in various regions [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the double - coking futures market may continue to fluctuate strongly. The warm macro - atmosphere, speculative demand, and strong rigid demand support the prices. However, in the medium - to - long term, the strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - For trading operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 800 - 980, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 32.68%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 63.89% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1400 - 1600, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.33%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 48.97% [3]. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging tool is J2509, the selling direction is recommended. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1550 - 1600 and 50% when the entry range is 1600 - 1650 [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of rebar decreased by 7169 tons to 87431 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1754 tons to 60747 tons, coking coal decreased by 1100 hands to 500 hands, and ferrosilicon manganese decreased by 3441 sheets to 79931 sheets compared with the previous day [3]. - **No Change in Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of iron ore remained at 3000 hands, coke remained at 760 hands, and ferrosilicon remained at 21950 sheets [3]. Core Contradictions - **Short - term Positive Factors**: The warm macro - atmosphere leads to a strong rebound in the double - coking futures market. Speculative demand enters the market, tightening spot liquidity and causing coal enterprises to raise prices. The second round of price increases by coking plants next week is likely to be implemented. Steel mills' demand for coking coal and coke procurement is strong, and both speculative and rigid demand support prices [4]. - **Medium - to - long - term Negative Factors**: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits. High hot - metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism [4]. Bullish Interpretations - Supply - side 2.0 disrupts market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100 yuan, and hot - metal production is unlikely to decrease in July. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [4] Bearish Interpretations - Coal mines in Shanxi have复产 unexpectedly. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal is increasing, and the subsequent arrival pressure is rising. [5] Double - Coking Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: There are differences in the cost of coking coal warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 878 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis is - 48.5 yuan/ton. The prices of various coking coal varieties have different daily and weekly changes [5]. - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, there are differences in the cost of coke warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. The current spot prices of coke in different regions also show certain changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke is 1030 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Related Ratios**: The current values of the coking profit ratio, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio are 73, 0.517, 2.073, and 1.619 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [5].