Group 1: Gold Market Insights - COMEX gold prices reached a new high of $3534.1 per ounce as of August 8, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and trade tariffs [1] - China's gold reserves increased to 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, marking a continuous increase for nine months [1] - Citigroup, previously known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices may reach new historical highs due to a weakening dollar and inflation concerns related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - China's rare earth exports in July totaled 5,994.3 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous month, ending a record high trend [1] - Pacific Securities highlighted China's leading position in the rare earth industry, emphasizing its international pricing power and the growing demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets [1] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planning to introduce measures for key industries [4] - As of July 31, 27 out of 60 listed companies in the non-ferrous metals index forecasted positive earnings for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational resilience [4] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.91%, making it the top-performing sector among 31 major industries [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals index is currently at a historically low price-to-book ratio of 2.36, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] - The sector's composition includes significant weights in copper (24.5%), aluminum (15.3%), gold (14.4%), rare earths (11.5%), and lithium (8.2%), providing a diversified investment opportunity [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - COMEX gold prices reached a new high of $3534.1 per ounce as of August 8, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1] - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, marking a 6,000-ounce increase from June, continuing a nine-month trend of gold accumulation [1] - Citigroup, previously known for its bearish stance on gold, has shifted to a bullish outlook, predicting that gold prices may rise due to a weakening dollar and ongoing inflation concerns related to tariffs [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - China's rare earth exports in July totaled 5,994.3 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous month, ending a record high trend [1] - Pacific Securities highlighted China's leading position in the rare earth industry, both in scale and technology, and its international pricing power [1] - The demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is expected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in humanoid robots and electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) technologies [1] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is projected to benefit from U.S. interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, with copper prices expected to rise due to constrained supply and resilient demand [4] - As of July 31, 2023, the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a cumulative increase of 24.91% year-to-date, making it the top-performing sector among 31 major industries [5] - The sector is also experiencing a valuation recovery, with the average price-to-book ratio at 2.36, indicating a historically low valuation level [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which is seen as a continuation of supply-side reforms [5] - Among 60 listed companies in the non-ferrous metals index, 22 have forecasted profit growth for the first half of 2025, showcasing operational resilience [5] - The non-ferrous metals index includes a diversified portfolio with significant weightings in copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate investment risks [7]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high of 3645.12 points during the trading session, closing at 3639.67 points, up 0.16% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.18% to 11157.94 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.68% to 2342.86 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 185.28 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 93 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical, insurance, steel, and automotive sectors experienced declines, while the semiconductor sector saw gains [1] - The rare earth sector surged in the afternoon, with active movements in brain-computer interface and consumer electronics concepts [1] Economic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating steady economic performance despite external and internal challenges [1] - The overall macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong and resilient, with corporate earnings expected to gradually improve due to favorable policies [1] Investment Opportunities - Rare earth prices are projected to rise, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide averaging 421,000 yuan/ton, up 13.06% year-on-year, and terbium oxide at 6.604 million yuan/ton, up 12.9% [2] - The implementation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" is expected to lead the industry into a new era of high-quality and standardized development [2] Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is approaching a turning point, with significant market growth anticipated from 2024 to 2030 [3] - The domestic shipment of solid-state batteries is expected to increase from approximately 7 GWh in 2024 to over 65 GWh by 2030 [3] AI Development - OpenAI has officially released GPT-5, which is described as the best writing, coding, and medical model to date, indicating a significant advancement in AI applications [4] - The new generation of AI applications is expected to drive demand for computational power in the reasoning sector [4] Robotics and Brain-Computer Interface - The 2025 World Robot Conference is set to take place, showcasing over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 domestic and international robotics companies [5][6] - A joint initiative by seven departments aims to promote innovation in the brain-computer interface industry, targeting breakthroughs in key technologies by 2027 [6] Renewable Energy Pricing - Shandong Province has introduced a market-oriented pricing reform for renewable energy, allowing wind and solar projects to enter the electricity market [7]

Group 1 - China's July rare earth exports totaled 5,994.3 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 23%, ending the record high momentum seen in June [1] - In July, soybean imports reached a historical high, while coal imports rebounded from a two-year low in June, and crude oil imports remained high for the second consecutive month [1] - Recent actions by China to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, including heavy rare earths, have raised concerns in the U.S. about the inability to fill the rare earth supply gap, as over 90% of rare earths require processing in China [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, the supply side is expected to shrink, with high raw material costs and a potential reduction in waste production, while non-compliant production capacity is anticipated to exit the market [1] - The report indicates that metal production remains stable, with sufficient metal inventory and a limited amount of low-priced spot products available [1] - On the demand side, CITIC Securities notes a steady improvement, with expectations of increased export approvals for neodymium-iron-boron products and stable domestic orders [3]

Industry Overview - The rare earth sector has seen a significant increase, with companies like Zhenghai Magnetic Materials and Aishichuang hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market performance [1] - Rare earth elements are classified into light and heavy rare earths, with China being the sole source of heavy rare earth separation globally [1] - The rare earth industry is entering a traditional consumption peak season in August, leading to increased demand and procurement [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for rare earth materials is expected to rise due to increased orders from major manufacturers, with some orders scheduled until mid-September [1] - The import volume of domestic rare earth products has significantly decreased due to factors like US-China tariff conflicts and political issues in Myanmar [1] - Recent price increases in rare earth materials are a key catalyst for the sector's heightened interest, with expectations of continued upward price momentum driven by strong demand [1][2] Applications of Rare Earth Materials - Rare earth permanent materials are crucial in the electric vehicle sector, with approximately 2 kilograms of rare earth used per vehicle [2] - The consumer electronics sector also shows stable growth in demand for high-performance permanent materials, used in devices like smartphones and computers [2] - Emerging industries, such as humanoid robotics, are projected to create substantial demand for rare earth materials, with estimates suggesting a potential market of $800 billion [2] Key Companies in the Rare Earth Sector - Northern Rare Earth: One of the largest suppliers of light rare earth products globally, with a target utilization rate of 90% for praseodymium and neodymium by 2025 [3] - Zhongke Magnetic Materials: A significant domestic producer of permanent magnetic materials, focusing on sintered neodymium-iron-boron and ferrite magnets [3] - China Rare Earth: The only listed platform for China Minmetals, specializing in ion-type rare earth separation and processing [3] - Galaxy Magnet: Engaged in the development and production of bonded neodymium-iron-boron magnets and samarium-cobalt magnets [3] - Inlohua: Produces neodymium-iron-boron permanent materials and serves major clients like Apple and Samsung [3] - Baotou Steel: Supplies rare earth concentrates and is known for its rich mineral resources [3] - Guangxi Rare Earth: A key player in the Guangdong rare earth industry, holding significant mining rights [4] - Xiamen Tungsten: Involved in rare earth permanent magnets with an annual production capacity of 4,000 tons [4]

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 8 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 资料来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，对来自印度的商品加征 25% 的额外关税，以回应印度继续"直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油"。特朗普表示，他 可能会宣布对中国加征进一步关税，类似于因印度购买俄罗斯石油而对印加征的 关税。此外，美国将对芯片和半导体征收约 100%的关税，如果在美国制造，将不 收取任何费用。关税消息的影响并不如前期明显，资金虽然有出逃的避险动作， 但日 ...

Core Viewpoint - China, as the world's richest country in rare earth resources, is leading in the terbium oxide industry in terms of resource reserves, production capacity, and technological development. The country is reshaping the global rare earth supply chain through policy regulation and market mechanisms, with terbium oxide being a key strategic resource whose price fluctuations are critical indicators of international geopolitical and industrial trends [1][8][17]. Industry Overview - Terbium oxide (Tb₂O₃) is a black-brown powder with unique optical and magnetic properties, relatively stable chemical characteristics, and is insoluble in water but soluble in acid [2]. - China's rare earth reserves are approximately 44 million tons, accounting for nearly half of the global proven reserves, with production reaching 270,000 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.50% [6][8]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the terbium oxide industry includes rare earth mineral resources and various production equipment. The midstream involves the manufacturing of terbium oxide, while the downstream applications include fluorescent materials, magneto-optical materials, catalysts, electronic ceramics, and new energy materials [4]. Current Industry Status - In April 2025, China implemented export controls on seven types of medium and heavy rare earths, causing international market panic and leading to a spike in European terbium oxide prices to $3,000 per kilogram (approximately 2.181 million RMB per ton). By June 2025, the domestic price of terbium oxide reached 7.09 million RMB per ton, a year-on-year increase of 31.30% [1][10][12]. Key Enterprises' Performance - The Chinese terbium oxide industry is characterized by a competitive landscape dominated by state-owned enterprises, with significant advantages in production and market position. For instance, China Northern Rare Earth Group has a net profit increase of 727.3% in Q1 2025, while China Rare Earth Group has a production volume of 7,785.27 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 107.27% [12][15]. Industry Development Trends 1. **Policy Regulation and Export Control**: The export control policy is expected to be a long-term strategic tool, significantly altering the global rare earth supply-demand structure. The average approval cycle for export licenses has been shortened by 30% [17]. 2. **Technological Innovation**: The industry is focusing on green transformation and high value-added production, with companies like Northern Rare Earth investing in zero wastewater discharge systems and achieving a 30% reduction in energy consumption per unit of output [19]. 3. **Market Demand Evolution**: The demand for terbium and dysprosium is expected to grow significantly due to high-end markets like robotics and new energy vehicles, although there are potential risks from alternative materials and geopolitical tensions [20].

Industry Overview - The price of dysprosium oxide in China remained above 2 million yuan per ton from 2021 to 2023, driven by explosive growth in the global electric vehicle industry leading to supply-demand imbalances [1][7] - As a key additive in neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets, the demand for dysprosium surged with the increase in electric vehicle production, while supply chain responses lagged, causing temporary supply shortages and irrational price increases [1][7] - By mid-2025, dysprosium prices fell to 1.615 million yuan per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 11.26%, due to multiple factors including increased global rare earth mining capacity and technological advancements reducing production costs [1][7] Industry Chain - The upstream of the dysprosium industry chain includes raw materials and production equipment, with raw materials primarily being rare earth mineral resources [4] - The midstream involves the production and manufacturing of dysprosium, while the downstream applications include magnetic materials, laser technology, electronics, new energy batteries, aerospace, and medical devices [4] Market Dynamics - Global rare earth reserves are approximately 90 million tons, with China holding 44 million tons, accounting for 48.9% of the total [6][7] - In 2024, China produced 270,000 tons of rare earths, representing 69.2% of global production, ensuring a stable supply for dysprosium production [6][7] Key Companies - China Rare Earth Group has an annual dysprosium production capacity of about 300 tons, with a product purity of 99.99% [11] - Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals, the only rare earth mining rights holder in Guangdong, produced 900 tons of dysprosium in 2023, expected to increase to 1,100 tons by 2025 [11] - Northern Rare Earth is a leading producer with a dysprosium output of 1,000 tons in 2023, projected to rise to 1,200 tons by 2025 [11] Industry Trends - The Chinese government is enhancing regulation of the rare earth industry, promoting integration and green transformation, with new policies aimed at protecting and rationally utilizing rare earth resources [17] - Technological innovations, such as the successful trial of the "physical vapor deposition combined with grain boundary diffusion method," have reduced dysprosium usage by 70% while improving magnetic properties [18][19] - The rapid development of global electric vehicles, wind power, and humanoid robots is creating new growth points for the dysprosium industry, with electric vehicles being a major demand driver [20]

综合来看，在美联储降息预期主导下，有色金属整体偏强，但品种间因供需结构差异呈现分化。建议重点关注政策落 地细节及海外宏观风险，可以关注有色60ETF（159881）和全市场规模最大的矿业ETF（561330），把握结构性机 会。 风险提示： 8月7日市场三大指数涨跌不一，黄金股票矿业和有色板块表现出顽强韧性。黄金股票ETF（517400）8月7日收涨 1.58%，年初至今涨幅达到42.03%；矿业ETF（561330）8月7日收涨1.23%，年初至今涨幅32.37%；有色60ETF （159881）8月7日收涨0.98%，年初至今涨幅达到28.19%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 517400 | 黄金股票ETF | 1.58% | 42.03% | | 561330 | 矿业ETF | 1.23% | 32.37% | | 159881 | 有色60ETF | 0.98% | 28.19% | 来源：Wind 消息面上，8月稀土产业链进入传统消费旺季，下游需求回升带动采购增加，据SMM，磁材行业部分大厂订单已经排 产至9月中旬 ...

中信证券发布研报称，《稀土管理条例》已于2024年10月1日正式实施，行业进入高质量、规范化发展 新时代。新能源汽车、空调、消费电子等下游需求持续增长，人形机器人商业化进程加速有望打开稀土 永磁远期需求增长空间。此外，出口逐步恢复叠加传统需求旺季渐行渐近，稀土价格有望稳中有进，预 计今年三、四季度稀土产业链业绩或逐季提升，持续推荐稀土产业链战略配置价值。 中信证券主要观点如下： 人形机器人等新兴领域前景可期，新能源车等下游需求持续增长。 根据中汽协数据，2025年6月我国新能源汽车产量为126.8万辆，同比增长45.4%，新能源汽车渗透率同 比上升5.4个百分点至45.4%。国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-6月工业机器人累计产量为36.9万台，同比 增长30.4%;空调累计产量为16329.69万台，同比增长4.0%，新能源汽车、空调及工业机器人等下游需求 持续增长。此外，人形机器人商业化进程加速有望打开稀土永磁远期需求增长空间。根据2024年12月26 日外发的报告，中性预期下，预计2035年全球人形机器人领域钕铁硼需求有望增至约2.4万吨，对应 2024-2035年CAGR达75.0%。 资源安全到国家 ...