Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, China's industrial enterprises produced a total of 28.139 million tons of kerosene, representing a decrease of 0.5% compared to the same period in 2024, with the growth rate slowing by 30.1 percentage points [1] - In June 2025, the kerosene production reached 5.094 million tons, showing an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, although the growth rate was 5.3 percentage points lower than that of June 2024 [2]

Core Insights - China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) and BASF have reached a methodological framework agreement on carbon footprint accounting during the 2025 China International Petroleum and Chemical Conference [1] - In 2023, Sinopec achieved automated carbon footprint accounting for petrochemical products in China for the first time [1] - In 2024, Sinopec will jointly establish the first Carbon Footprint Alliance for the energy and chemical industry with seven other companies, including China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), to collaboratively reduce carbon emissions across the supply chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jinzhou Petrochemical prioritizes safety and environmental protection as it enters the fourth quarter, focusing on risk prevention and control measures to ensure stable operations during winter [1][2] Group 1: Safety Management - The company integrates "Thunder Action" requirements with winter safety production, ensuring safety management penetrates to the grassroots level [1] - A closed-loop rectification mechanism is strictly implemented to address issues identified in the QHSE system audit [1] - The company has completed the preparation of anti-freezing and anti-congealing plans in advance, aiming for "no freezing in any pipeline, no damage to any equipment" [1] Group 2: Risk Control Measures - Jinzhou Petrochemical emphasizes the principle of "time obeys quality, progress obeys safety" during maintenance operations, enhancing risk identification and mitigation measures [1] - The company conducts dynamic risk assessments during maintenance, refines construction plans, and increases on-site supervision [1] - Special attention is given to new production units and equipment undergoing their first winter, with dedicated personnel assigned for inspections [1] Group 3: Post-Holiday Recovery - To ensure a smooth recovery after the holiday, the company conducts thorough on-site inspections focusing on construction environments and equipment conditions [2] - Potential hazards such as pit collapses after rain are addressed through comprehensive inspections by specialized personnel [2] - A responsibility ledger is established for identified hazards, with clear accountability and deadlines for rectification [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the probability of a La Niña phenomenon occurring from October to December 2025 has risen to over 75%, which may lead to significant temperature fluctuations during winter in the Northern Hemisphere [2][3] - The report highlights that the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have remained below normal, around -0.5 degrees, confirming the La Niña indicators [3] - It is noted that while La Niña typically results in colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere, other factors such as the strength of East Asian winter winds and Arctic sea ice levels may influence the actual winter temperatures [3] Group 2 - In mid-October, a significant drop in temperatures was observed in Northern China, with many areas officially entering winter earlier than the average date, leading to a temperature decrease of over 10 degrees [4] - The demand for coal in the power generation sector has increased due to winter storage procurement, with average daily coal consumption rising by 12.5% from the previous week [4] - The report mentions that as of October 14, the EU's natural gas storage level was at 83.09%, which is 13.05% lower than the same period last year, indicating a potential rise in natural gas prices if a cold winter occurs [4] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for the LNG market suggests a gradual easing of supply and demand, with global LNG liquefaction capacity expected to grow rapidly from 2025 to 2029, particularly in North America [5] - The report anticipates that the price differentials between Asian, European, and North American natural gas markets may narrow, leading to a downward trend in gas prices [5] - The report identifies that the breakeven point for major U.S. natural gas wells is primarily in the range of $2.5 to $3.0 per MMBtu, which may serve as a support line for long-term prices at Henry Hub [5] Group 4 - The report suggests that the increased probability of La Niña may lead to a cold winter, which could elevate natural gas prices in Europe, prompting a focus on upstream natural gas production-related investments [6] - It also indicates that as the global LNG market gradually balances, the price centers in Asia and Europe are expected to decline, benefiting downstream natural gas sales and potentially increasing the penetration rate of natural gas in industrial energy consumption [6]

Core Insights - In June 2025, Shanghai's fuel oil production reached 63,000 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a growth rate 32.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The fuel oil production in Shanghai accounted for 1.7% of the national output of 3,628,000 tons during the same period [1] - For the first half of 2025, Shanghai's cumulative fuel oil production was 251,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.3%, although the growth rate was 19.4 percentage points higher than the previous year [4] Monthly Production Analysis - The fuel oil production in June 2025 was 63,000 tons, which is a significant increase compared to the previous year [1] - The monthly production statistics indicate a strong recovery in June, contrasting with the overall decline observed in the first half of the year [4] Cumulative Production Overview - From January to June 2025, the total fuel oil production in Shanghai was 251,000 tons, which is lower than the previous year, indicating a challenging market environment [4] - The cumulative production accounted for 1.2% of the national total of 2,160,800 tons during the same period [4]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry, as a pillar of the national economy, faces unprecedented transformation pressures and development opportunities under the "dual carbon" goals, making green and low-carbon development a necessity rather than an option [1][2]. Group 1: Enhancing Energy Resource Utilization Efficiency - The petrochemical industry is a key area of energy consumption, necessitating comprehensive energy efficiency benchmarking and optimization of energy systems. Companies should focus on high-energy-consuming facilities and continuously promote energy-saving technological transformations [1]. - Jilin Petrochemical has implemented energy-saving projects, such as replacing high-energy-consuming motors and optimizing steam recovery systems, resulting in a reduction of water, electricity, and steam consumption by 72,000 tons, 4.41 million kWh, and 68,000 tons year-on-year, respectively [1]. - Ongoing measures like waste steam recovery and regional steam network optimization are expected to further reduce steam consumption by 5% [1]. Group 2: Enhancing Clean Energy Consumption Levels - Accelerating energy structure adjustments and gradually increasing the proportion of green electricity consumption is crucial for the low-carbon transition in the petrochemical industry. Companies should develop renewable energy sources like wind and solar power and expand the application of green electricity [2]. - Jilin Petrochemical has consumed a total of 900 million kWh of green electricity, demonstrating significant results. The company is also advancing in the bio-chemical sector by achieving breakthroughs in cellulose-based ethanol technology, with fuel ethanol concentration increased to 14%, supporting green energy alternatives [2]. Group 3: Increasing the Proportion of High-End Low-Carbon Products - Transitioning product structures towards greener and higher-value products is another important pathway for achieving energy savings and carbon reduction. Companies should reduce the production of low-value, high-energy-consuming products and focus on developing environmentally friendly products with low carbon emission intensity [2]. - Jilin Petrochemical is constructing a million-ton new materials production base, with a diverse range of products expected to reach an output of 600,000 tons by 2025. The company has successfully developed large tow carbon fiber technology and is advancing a thousand-ton carbon fiber project [2]. - The transformation and upgrading projects are expected to increase the output of high-value-added products by 30% year-on-year, gradually forming six major R&D advantage areas, effectively reducing carbon emissions at the end of the industrial chain [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Pure Benzene and Styrene - The overall supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, with weak price drivers. It may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices. Strategy: BZ2603 should follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices [1]. - The supply - demand of styrene is also expected to be loose, and its price drivers are weak. EB12 price rebounds should be treated with a short - selling approach [1]. LLDPE and PP - The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US frictions and US sanctions on refineries [3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may be strong in the short - term but has limited rebound space. PTA is boosted in the short - term but also has limited rebound space. Ethylene glycol has a weak long - term supply - demand structure. Short - fiber and bottle - chip also have limited rebound space [5]. Methanol - The price of methanol may continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the overseas plant operation stability, sanctions on ship clearance efficiency, and the port de - stocking rhythm [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - In the short - term, the price of caustic soda is weak, and it can be short - sold. PVC has large supply - demand pressure, and short - term short positions can stop profit [8]. Summaries by Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - On October 23, Brent crude oil (December) was $66.99/barrel, up 5.4% from the previous day. WTI crude oil (December) was $61.79/barrel, up 5.6% [1]. - CFR China Naphtha was $682/ton, up 1.5%. Pure benzene - naphtha was -$119/ton, down 8.8% [1]. Related Prices and Spreads of Styrene - On October 23, styrene in East China spot was 6550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. EB futures 2512 was 6566 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [1]. Downstream Cash Flows - On October 23, phenol cash flow was - 390 yuan/ton, down 15.7% from the previous day. Aniline cash flow was 1021 yuan/ton, down 6.4% [1]. Inventory - As of October 20, pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 9.00 million tons, up 10.0% from October 13. Styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 20.25 million tons, up 3.1% [1]. Industry Chain Operating Rates - From October 9 to October 16, the Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.2%, down 0.9%. The domestic pure benzene operating rate was 75.5%, down 3.8% [1]. LLDPE and PP Futures and Spot Prices - On October 23, L2601 closed at 6666 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. PP2601 closed at 6691 yuan/ton, up 1.09% [3]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - As of the latest data, the PE device operating rate was 81.5%, down 0.37%. The PP device operating rate was 75.9%, down 2.9% [3]. Inventory - As of the latest data, PE enterprise inventory was 51.5 million tons, down 2.81%. PP enterprise inventory was 63.9 million tons, down 5.92% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On October 23, Brent crude oil (December) was $66.99/barrel, up 5.4%. CFR China PX was $812/ton, up 1.8% [5]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On October 23, POY150/48 price was 6360 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. POY150/48 cash flow was - 2 yuan/ton, down 89 [5]. Operating Rates - From the previous week to the current week, the Asian PX operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.9%. The PTA operating rate was 76.7%, up 3.1% [5]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On October 23, MA2601 closed at 2292 yuan/ton, up 1.37%. The Taicang basis was - 89 yuan/ton, up 61.82% [6]. Inventory - As of the latest data, methanol enterprise inventory was 36.036%, up 0.13%. Methanol port inventory was 151.2 million tons, up 1.40% [6]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - As of the latest data, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 75.85%, down 0.91%. The downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 78.1%, down 9.48% [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On October 22, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 was 4719 yuan/ton, up 0.4% [8]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - As of October 16, FOB East China port caustic soda was $380/ton, down 5.0%. The PVC export profit was 19 yuan/ton, down 81.5% [8]. Supply (Operating Rates and Profits) - From October 10 to October 17, the caustic soda industry operating rate was 85.5%, down 3.9%. The PVC total operating rate was 75.1%, down 7.0% [8]. Demand (Downstream Operating Rates) - From October 10 to October 17, the alumina industry operating rate was not available, and the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 88.6%, down 1.1% [8]. Inventory - As of October 16, the liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.5 million tons, down 1.1%. The PVC total social inventory was 55.6 million tons, down 0.1% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional demand peak season in October has not significantly boosted the toluene market, leading to prices dropping to near five-year lows due to weak supply-demand fundamentals and declining prices of related products [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Domestic toluene production capacity is expected to expand significantly in 2025, with new facilities from various companies adding nearly 1.7 million tons, resulting in a continuously increasing supply [3]. - The supply side remains robust, with minimal maintenance shutdowns in October and an expected increase in port arrivals, contributing to a supply surplus that weakens price support [3][8]. - The overall supply growth, coupled with weak demand, exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, putting downward pressure on prices [3][5]. Group 2: Demand Trends - As of September 2025, domestic gasoline shipping orders have decreased by approximately 8.67% year-on-year, indicating a persistent weak demand environment [5]. - The traditional peak season has not led to significant increases in demand from the refining sector, with overall oil adjustment demand remaining weak [5]. - Chemical sector demand is also insufficient, with many companies only maintaining essential procurement due to reduced profit margins from related products [5][8]. Group 3: Price Influences - Following the National Day holiday, toluene prices have continued to decline, with the Shandong market dropping below 5,000 yuan/ton, marking a new low since February 2021 [1][3]. - The decline in prices is influenced by falling crude oil prices and related products, which further depress market confidence [7]. - Short-term expectations suggest a potential rebound in prices due to low levels attracting some buyers, with forecasts indicating possible price increases to around 4,900-5,000 yuan/ton in Shandong and 5,100-5,250 yuan/ton in Jiangsu [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Core View - Crude oil prices continued to rebound under the stimulus of news such as increased US sanctions on Russia, driving up the energy sector including PG. However, the fundamentals of the LPG market remained largely unchanged, with a loose supply - demand pattern. The industry was waiting for the results of China - US trade negotiations. Although the PG futures followed the crude oil rebound, the spot market reaction was relatively flat. Given the current window period of undecided major macro - events and frequent news disturbances, caution was advised [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On October 23, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4300 - 4360 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3830 - 4010 yuan/ton; North China market, 4100 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market, 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4370 - 4630 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton; South China market, 4250 - 4480 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 548 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 553 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4278 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton) and 4317 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 542 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 547 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4232 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) and 4271 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Spot prices: North China and Shandong civil LPG prices rose yesterday. East China civil LPG and ether - after carbon four mainstream transaction prices remained stable, with a stable market atmosphere and downstream procurement on demand [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Core Views - Report's industry investment suggestions: PX to follow oil price rebound and short PXN at high levels; PTA to go long on PX and short on PTA with a unilateral upward trend; MEG to expect demand improvement and short - term rebound [1] - Core view on PX: Cost - supported, with a unilateral upward - biased trend. PXN has declined as expected, and factories are advised to hedge when the spread is between $240 - $250. Supply - demand is slightly tight [7] - Core view on PTA: Demand is expected to improve marginally, supported by oil prices. New devices are planned to start, and the entire industrial chain's consumption is expected to improve [7] - Core view on MEG: Reduce short positions. Pay attention to the restart of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's 800,000 - ton device in November and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [8] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Data - PX futures: Yesterday's closing price was 6496, up 46 (0.71%); PX1 - 5 spread was - 24, unchanged [2] - PTA futures: Yesterday's closing price was 4508, up 26 (0.58%); PTA1 - 5 spread was - 64, unchanged [2] - MEG futures: Yesterday's closing price was 4095, up 44 (1.09%); MEG1 - 5 spread was - 68, up 2 [2] - PF futures: Yesterday's closing price was 6160, up 24 (0.39%); PF12 - 1 spread was - 28, down 4 [2] - SC futures: Yesterday's closing price was 459.7, up 12.5 (2.80%); SC11 - 12 spread was - 3.9, up 0.2 [2] Spot Data - PX spot: Yesterday's price was $812/ton, up $13.67 [2] - PTA spot: Yesterday's price was 4430 yuan/ton, up 60 [2] - MEG spot: Yesterday's price was 4186 yuan/ton, up 64 [2] - Naphtha MOPJ: Yesterday's price was $573.12/ton, up $21.62 [2] - Dated Brent: Yesterday's price was $65.53/barrel, up $3.33 [2] Spot Processing Fee Data - PX - naphtha spread: Yesterday's price was $246.17, up $6.34 [2] - PTA processing fee: Yesterday's price was 144.83 yuan/ton, down 7.3 [2] - Short - fiber processing fee: Yesterday's price was 380.77 yuan/ton, down 0.5 [2] - Bottle - chip processing fee: Yesterday's price was 154.12 yuan/ton, up 14.48 [2] - MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread: Yesterday's price was - 4.34, unchanged [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics Summary - Crude oil: Oil prices rose after the US imposed sanctions on major Russian oil companies [2][3] - PX: Asian PX prices rose on October 23, following the increase in crude oil prices and supported by the improved sentiment in the downstream polyester industry [2] - PTA: Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton device reduced its load, and some devices resumed. The PTA load on Thursday was 78.8%, and the current operating rate is around 84.6% [5] - MEG: A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China stopped temporarily for 3 - 5 days. As of October 23, the overall operating load in mainland China was 73.28% (down 3.87% from the previous period). Two US MEG devices with a total capacity of 380,000 tons/year restarted [6] - Polyester: This week, there were no significant changes in polyester devices, and the polyester load remained stable. As of Thursday, the domestic polyester load was around 91.4%. The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 75%. The sales volume of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments increased locally today, with an average sales rate of around 100%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined, with an average sales rate of 77% [6] Group 4: Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 [7] - PTA trend intensity: 1 [7] - MEG trend intensity: 1 [7]