实物资产的时代：把握工业金属投资机会 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---有色金属行业2026年投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：景丹阳 SAC执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 2025年12月22日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2025.1.2-2025.11.28市场走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现（2025.11.28) （单位：%） 表现 1M 3M 12M 有色金属行业 -2.6 15.3 60.3 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43% 53% 63% 73% 83% 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 有色金属(申万) 沪深300 《有色金属行业2025年三季报综述：宏观宽松预期叠加不确定性增强，有色行 业整体表现亮眼》2025.11.20 请认真阅读文后免责条款 2 沪深300 -2.5 0.7 14.7 报告摘要 请认真阅读文后免责条款 3 | | | | 股票代码 | 股票简 ...

12月22日：黄金市场上周：国际黄金震荡收涨，波幅相对前周有所收窄，并仍处于趋势线压力下方，暗 示仍有回落走低调整的风险，但目前走势仍处于5-10周均线上方，布林带仍倾向向上，基本面降息周期 也未结束，故此，短期虽有调整，但方向仍是看涨。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4299.43美元/盎司，并基本上每日都是震荡走盘，先行于周二录得当周低 点4271.65美元，之后回升走强，于周四录得当周高点4374.14美元，并再度陷入震荡，于周五收于 4337.90美元，周振幅102.49美元，收涨38.47美元，涨幅0.89%。 影响上，先是受到之前交易日的回撤压力，以及地缘局势缓和，加上美联储主席候选人博弈加剧，哈塞 特面临特朗普身边高层反对，减弱了未来更加宽松政策的预期前景，打压金价震荡走低录得当周低点； 之后受到支撑买盘，以及美国10月零售销售月率和美国11月失业率上升等，强化了美联储未来降息的预 期，推动金价止跌并反弹走强，但多头难以持稳，周尾再度陷入获利了结和震荡调整格局，最终震荡收 官。 展望本周周一（12月22日）：国际黄金开盘先行走强，受美联储降息预期增强的提振，以及5日均线的 买盘推动；虽然美元指数早盘 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rise on December 22, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 2%, driven by a surge in the precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, which reached historical price highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 22, the three major A-share indices opened high and continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index gaining more than 2% [1] - The precious metals sector saw substantial gains, with companies like Xiaocheng Technology, Hunan Silver, and Western Gold rising over 5% [1] Group 2: Price Movements - On the same day, spot gold prices surpassed $4,400, marking a new historical high [1] - Silver prices also reached above $69 per ounce, achieving a record level [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Dongwu Futures suggests that gold and silver still have upward momentum in the short term [1] - In the medium to long term, factors such as geopolitical conflicts, the onset of interest rate cuts, and the decline of the US dollar's credibility are expected to support a continued upward trend for gold and silver [1]

核心要点： 市场对美联储2026年降息的预期持续为金价提供支撑，假期临近放大不确定性；日本央行决议"不够鹰派"引发日元大幅抛售；AI乐观 情绪推动美股科技股延续反弹。 隔夜市场总览 上周五，市场在假期前交投中消化了多重线索。降息预期和地缘不确定性共同支撑黄金与白银（再创历史新高）。日元在日本央行加息后因前瞻 指引模糊而重挫。美股在AI龙头（美光、英伟达）强劲表现的带动下继续收高，抵消了部分消费股的疲软。 市场分项解读 金市-在降息与避险情绪中稳健 行情：现货黄金上涨0.4%，收于 4347.07美元/盎司，全周上涨1.1%。现货白银飙升2.6%，再创 67.43美元/盎司 的历史新高，全年涨幅已达132%。 动因：1) 政策预期：美国疲软通胀与就业数据巩固了2026年至少降息两次的预期。2) 假期风险：圣诞与新年假期临近，市场流动性下降，地缘不 确定性增加，提振避险需求。 ⬛ 油市-地缘事件提供短期扰动 行情：美原油上涨0.9%，收于 56.66美元/桶，但全周仍累跌约1%。 动因：美国拦截委内瑞拉油轮并实施新制裁，引发供应中断担忧，推升油价。然而，下游需求疲软（汽油期货跌至四年低点）和宏观供应过剩的 担忧限 ...

新华财经北京12月22日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场12月22日涨多跌少，其中集运欧线主力合约涨超8%；钯、铂主力合约封涨停板，涨幅分别 为7.00%、6.99%；沪银主力合约涨超6%；沪镍、PTA主力合约涨超4%；对二甲苯、碳酸锂、短纤、瓶片主力合约涨超3%；沥青、LU、SC原油、苯乙烯、 纸浆、沪金主力合约涨超2%。下跌品种中，塑料、多晶硅主力合约跌超2%；聚丙烯、PVC、玻璃、丙烯、氧化铝主力合约跌超1%。 虽然上周马士基宣布旗下货船近两年来首次完成穿越红海和曼德海峡的航行，但目前没有其他再次通过该海域的航行计划。这使得航司重返红海和苏伊士运 河航线的前景仍存在不确定性。且刚刚过去的周末，以色列国防军参谋长扎米尔21日在军方一场活动上发出的警告，暗示以色列可能要再次打击伊朗，进而 也给红海通航前景带来不确定因素。另从航运市场自身来看，虽然2026年1月首周部分航司的开舱价格不及宣涨目标，但在分析机构看来，考虑到今年春节 偏晚，旺季特征或在1月下旬才会显现，这使得集运欧线近月的强预期依然存在，从而提振市场情绪。在此背景下，资金积极入场集运欧线的迹象明显。盘 面上看，22日盘中，伴随着集运欧线期价走 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong rally, driven by AI hardware and resource sectors, indicating an increase in risk appetite and potential for further gains in the short term [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext Index rose by 2.23%, supported by strong performance in AI hardware represented by CPO [1] - Over a hundred stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets hit the daily limit up, reflecting heightened trading sentiment [1] - The resource sector, including gold and silver stocks, saw significant gains, driven by rising international prices [3] Group 2: Global Liquidity Trends - There is a consensus among market participants that global liquidity will continue to increase, influenced by substantial fiscal spending from major economies [1][2] - The U.S. and Japan are implementing large fiscal stimulus plans, contributing to a trend of monetizing fiscal deficits in developed economies [1][2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The increase in global liquidity is expected to enhance risk appetite, benefiting technology growth stocks and resource companies in the A-share market [3] - Some institutional investors are shifting from neutral strategies to more aggressive buying in the A-share market, as evidenced by increased trading volumes in the CSI A500 ETF [4] - The potential for further gains in the A-share market is supported by the dismantling of neutral strategies by institutions, leading to a more bullish outlook [4]

从资金流向上来看，当日贵金属板块主力资金净流入6.9亿元，游资资金净流出2.08亿元，散户资金净流 出4.82亿元。贵金属板块个股资金流向见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息，12月22日贵金属板块较上一交易日上涨3.85%，晓程科技领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3917.36，上涨0.69%。深证成指报收于13332.73，上涨1.47%。贵金属板块个股涨跌见下表： ...

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.69% to close at 3917.36 points, returning above the 3900-point mark [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 13332.73 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.23% to 3191.98 points [2][3] - The total market turnover was approximately 1.88 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Key sectors that saw significant gains included precious metals, communication equipment, and electronic components [4] - Concept sectors such as Hainan State-owned Assets and Hainan Free Trade Port showed notable increases, with related stocks like Hainan Airport and Hainan High-speed Railway hitting the daily limit [4] - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched its full island closure on December 18, which is expected to release policy dividends [4]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with nickel leading at a rise of 4.55%, while copper rose by 1.73%, reaching a record high of 94,730 yuan/ton [1] - Lithium carbonate surged by 3.98%, hitting a new high of 116,460 yuan/ton since April 2024 [1] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel increased by 1.82%, iron ore by 0.58%, and rebar by 0.39% [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold rose by 1.33%, reaching a record high of 4,453 USD/ounce, while COMEX silver increased by 2.52%, also hitting a new high of 69.525 USD/ounce [2] - Domestic gold and silver prices rose by 2.1% and 6.06%, respectively, with silver reaching a record high of 16,282 yuan/kg [2] - Platinum and palladium both saw significant increases, with platinum up 6.99% and palladium up 7% [2] Macro Environment - The State Council's Work Safety Committee dispatched teams to conduct inspections against illegal mining activities across 12 key regions, resulting in the identification of 96,666 abandoned mines and a closure rate of 92.72% [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 636 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [7] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.0572, with the dollar index down by 0.12% [8]

今天A股三大指数全天震荡上行，创业板指表现强势。市场午后延续轮动，算力硬件概念持续走强，机器人概念午后拉升，商业航天概念冲高回落。 截至收盘，上证指数涨0.69%，站上3900点，深证成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.23%，市场全天成交额约1.88万亿元，较上一交易日增加1335亿元。海南自 贸区板块全天领涨，贵金属、铜缆高速连接等板块涨幅居前。 个股方面，新易盛大涨，盘中股价创新高。新易盛股价从4月9日盘中46.56元的最低价起算，时至12月22日盘中触及466.66元的历史高位，成为今年又一只 燃气板块热股胜通能源走出"7连板"，股价创历史新高。中天服务盘中上演"天地板"，早间该股开盘即涨停，随后快速跳水，午后跌幅持续扩大，多次触 及跌停，截至收盘，中天服务跌9.91%，报6.73元/股。 胜通能源走出"7连板" 截至收盘，胜通能源走出"7连板"，股价创历史新高，报28.75元/股，最新市值81.14亿元。今年以来，胜通能源股价持续走高，累计涨幅为265.59%。 胜通能源12月21日晚公告称，公司股票自12月12日以来连续6个交易日涨停，累计涨幅达到77.22%，显著偏离大盘指数和行业指数，短期波动幅度 ...