Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural products sector [11]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry has entered a clearing phase since 2021, with capital expenditure from large enterprises continuing to contract, leading to a recovery trend in industry ROE levels. Current industry capacity remains relatively excessive, and if policies are effectively implemented, it is expected to enhance profitability and stability in the sector. Attention should be paid to investment opportunities in leading enterprises [2][6][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is in a mature stage, characterized by a significant increase in the scale of operations over the past 20 years. The proportion of large-scale farms (over 500 heads) has risen from 8.8% in 2000 to 70% in 2024, indicating a shift towards concentration and professionalization in the industry [7][16]. Policy Impact - Recent policies have emphasized capacity control and high-quality development. The current breeding sow inventory exceeds the normal level of 39 million heads, indicating an oversupply in the industry. The government has been proactive in promoting capacity control through various policy documents [30][31]. Trends and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two major trends in the pig farming industry: 1. An expected increase in industry ROE levels with reduced volatility, highlighting the advantages of quality enterprises. The average ROE is projected to rise from -10% in 2021 to 21% in 2024 [9][45]. 2. An increase in free cash flow levels, leading to significant shareholder returns for quality enterprises. The industry is expected to generate a total free cash flow of 23 billion yuan in 2024, a 100% increase year-on-year [54][60]. Recommended Companies - The report specifically recommends investing in leading companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at historical lows [2][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various sectors in the market, highlighting trends and potential investment opportunities, particularly in the context of recent geopolitical developments and market dynamics. Financial Market Overview - A-shares have shown strong growth, with the North China 50 index rising by 6.84% weekly, leading major broad-based indices. Market sentiment is positive, with trading volume steadily increasing, indicating a shift towards bullish signals for most indices, except for the North China 50 which remains cautious [3]. Oil and Gas Sector - Geopolitical risks have eased, with reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which may lead to a restart of consolidation among overseas oil and gas giants. As of June 27, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $66.34 and $65.07 per barrel, reflecting declines of 12.5% and 12.1% respectively from the previous week [4]. Agriculture Sector - In the pig farming sector, the industry capacity cycle has reached a bottom, but high inventory levels continue to impact market dynamics. Recent policy initiatives are accelerating the process of reducing inventory, which is expected to realign supply and demand. A long-term perspective suggests that after inventory reduction, the sector may enter a prolonged period of profitability [6]. Coal Mining Sector - There are signs of a turning point in coking coal inventories, with a reported decrease in both raw and refined coal stocks for the first time since May. As of the week of June 23-29, the inventory of raw coal was 683.5 million tons, down by 17.9 million tons, and refined coal was 463.1 million tons, down by 36.1 million tons. Additionally, the average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased by 7 yuan to 616 yuan per ton, indicating the start of a seasonal price rise [7].

Core Insights - The futures market for live pigs shows a closing price of 13,790 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, reflecting an increase of 110 yuan/ton from the previous week [1] - The current prices for live pigs in various regions have increased, with Henan at 14.86 yuan/kg (+0.53 yuan), Jiangsu at 15.24 yuan/kg (+0.58 yuan), and Sichuan at 13.86 yuan/kg (+0.21 yuan) [1] - The supply side indicates a slight increase in the number of breeding sows and a decrease in the number of sows being eliminated, while the total stock of market pigs has increased by 0.45% [1] Supply Analysis - As of May, the number of breeding sows stands at 5.0834 million, up 0.33% month-on-month [1] - The number of eliminated sows is 96,829, down 0.91% from the previous month [1] - The total stock of market pigs is 35.6403 million, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.45% [1] Demand Analysis - The slaughtering rate of enterprises is at 27.74%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The inventory rate of frozen products in key domestic slaughtering enterprises is 17.41%, an increase of 0.06% [1] - Consumer demand appears to be recovering, with an increase in slaughter volume and frozen inventory, although overall consumption remains weak [1] Market Outlook - The analysis suggests that if the breeding sector reduces the number of pigs being sold in July, live pig prices may rise [1] - The September futures contract is showing strong performance, indicating market confidence [1] - In the medium to long term, the production capacity and profitability of pig farming remain favorable, with a trend of increasing breeding sows expected to continue [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 生猪行业 5 月跟踪报告 价格小幅回落，体重延续上行 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 27 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 101 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 13,111.51 | 1.27 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 9,904.42 | 1.22 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | | 相对表现 | -0.0% | 8.2% | -3.6% | -16% -3% 10% 22% 24/06 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 2024-06-26~2025-06-26 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《华创农业 5 月白羽肉禽月报：毛鸡、鸡苗价格 保持平 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continues to support the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. The current futures contract is at a discount to the spot, and it is still regarded as a rebound, which may be affected by the off - season demand and loose supply - demand in the medium to long term [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 26th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 14,080 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,990 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,040 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 996 lots to 165,608 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 26th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.56 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, and the support for prices weakened. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On June 26, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 142,100 heads, 1,100 less than the previous day and 4,700 less than a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughter, the volume of large pigs decreased, and the slaughter weight decreased slightly [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [19] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous ten - day period [19] - As of the week of June 19, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42% [19] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 19, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.07 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan/jin increase from the previous week [19]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in live pig futures prices is attributed to a tightening supply and positive market sentiment for the upcoming peak season in August and September, with prices rebounding over 5% from previous lows [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is experiencing a tightening supply due to factors such as reduced large pig availability and increased frozen product inventory, which supports pig prices [1]. - Analysts note that the sentiment among small-scale farmers is to hold onto pigs in anticipation of higher prices in late July to August, leading to a decrease in supply [1][2]. - The overall pig supply is expected to increase gradually throughout the year, but short-term supply may be limited due to factors like piglet diarrhea outbreaks [4][5]. Price Trends - The average price of piglets has dropped to 36.91 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.8% week-on-week and 16.7% year-on-year, indicating a cautious market [2]. - The price of 15 kg piglets has fallen from 670 yuan per head in mid-April to 530 yuan currently, primarily due to high costs and low seasonal demand [3]. Profitability and Cost Factors - Current breeding profits are generally positive, although there is a structural divide where some farmers face losses due to high costs of purchased piglets [2][4]. - Rising costs of feed ingredients like corn and soybean meal may impact cash flow for farmers in the latter half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a significant increase in piglet supply in September and October, which may exert downward pressure on prices [4]. - The current price increase is seen as temporary, with expectations that the market will transition from inventory accumulation to depletion, potentially leading to price declines in the fourth quarter [4][5].

Group 1 - The company, Leshan Giantstar Farming & Husbandry Corporation Limited, issued convertible bonds totaling 1 billion RMB, with each bond having a face value of 100 RMB, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][14][16] - The bonds have a maturity period of 6 years, from April 25, 2022, to April 24, 2028, with an annual interest rate that increases from 0.40% in the first year to 3.00% in the sixth year [1][8][19] - The initial conversion price for the bonds is set at 25.24 RMB per share, subject to adjustments based on various corporate actions [4][5][6] Group 2 - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, achieving 607,824.71 million RMB in 2024, a 180.36% increase compared to the previous year [16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 51,854.80 million RMB, marking a substantial recovery from a loss of 64,529.41 million RMB in the prior year [16] - The net cash flow from operating activities surged to 126,509.18 million RMB, reflecting a 1,304.23% increase year-on-year [16] Group 3 - The company has established a dedicated account for managing the funds raised from the bond issuance, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [17] - The total amount of funds utilized from the bond issuance as of the end of 2024 was 98,259.36 million RMB, with a remaining balance of 12,571,813.07 RMB in the dedicated account [18] - The company has committed to using the raised funds primarily for its integrated pig breeding project and working capital [18]

当前生猪市场整体表现如何，以及对下半年和明年的市场走势有何预期？ 生猪：猪价超预期上涨，一线专家怎么看 20250625 摘要 预计 2026 年上半年生猪供应量仍将偏大，2025 年下半年或启动产能 去化，可能持续至 2026 年上半年。传统产能去化逻辑为商品猪和仔猪 同时亏损至少三个月，2025 年下半年存在亏损可能性。短期内 2024 年生猪行情上涨空间有限，但长期存在新周期开启信号。 2023 年散户去产能影响 2024 年供应，2025 年供应由 2024 年母猪存 栏量决定，虽略有复产但幅度不大，供应量将缓和增长。预计 2025 年 6-8 月为全年供应低点和价格高点，9 月后出栏量将大幅增加，或致猪 价跌破成本线 13.5 元/公斤。 2022-2025 年仔猪市场亏损较少，因散户母猪减少。饲料企业进军养 猪业，2025-2026 年放量，新增仔猪需求超 2000 万头。近期仔猪价格 下跌较快，已跌至 430 元/头，下半年进入淡季预计继续下行。 断奶猪苗行业平均成本 310 元/头，头部企业可控制在 280 元/头，部分 低成本企业甚至做到 250-260 元/头。养殖企业普遍将 300 元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is strategically positioning itself for international expansion through its Hong Kong IPO, which is seen as a critical step for future growth and credibility in the global market [3][9]. Group 1: IPO and International Strategy - The company submitted its H-share listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 27, 2025, marking a significant move towards its internationalization strategy [3]. - The IPO aims to enhance the company's credibility among global investors and support its overseas business expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, with Vietnam identified as a key market [3]. - Funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to global supply chain expansion, breeding and smart farming R&D, and working capital replenishment [3]. Group 2: Business Development and R&D - The company’s subsidiary, Muyu Anliang, is in trial production, achieving 80% of its designed capacity, focusing on synthetic biology technology, particularly amino acid applications [4]. - The strategic goal of this initiative is to reduce reliance on soybean protein, thereby safeguarding national food security and mitigating risks associated with international soybean price fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - The company perceives a stable future for the pig farming industry, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing production capacity and pig prices [5]. - Since 2021, the company has shifted its focus from rapid growth to high-quality development, emphasizing cost control and technology output [5]. Group 4: Slaughtering Business and Synergy - The company’s slaughtering business, initiated in 2019, currently has a capacity of 29 million heads per year, with plans to enhance sales channels and optimize product structure [6]. - There is a strong emphasis on the synergy between slaughtering and breeding operations, allowing for better market demand understanding and value maximization [6]. Group 5: Cost Control and Financial Management - Since 2025, the company has seen a monthly decrease in pig farming costs, with May's cost at 12.2 yuan/kg, aiming for an average of 12 yuan/kg for the year [7]. - Future cost optimization will focus on disease prevention, breeding system improvements, feed cost reduction through synthetic biology, and enhanced smart equipment application [7]. - The company has set a target to reduce debt by 10 billion yuan, with a long-term goal of lowering the debt-to-asset ratio to over 40% [8]. Group 6: Industry Transformation and Social Responsibility - The company aims to elevate the pig farming industry’s image through technological innovation and model upgrades, making it a respected profession [9]. - The vision is to make pig farming less labor-intensive and more profitable, integrating technology and management to enhance production efficiency [9].

Group 1 - The core strategy of the company is the "three-horsepower" approach, focusing on cost optimization, IPO progress, and international expansion through technology output [1] - The company has successfully reduced its breeding cost to a new low of 12.2 yuan/kg, showcasing its resilience amid industry fluctuations [1][3] - The Hong Kong IPO application marks a significant step in the company's internationalization strategy, aiming to pave the way for overseas business over the next five to ten years [2] Group 2 - The company has established a complete service chain in Vietnam, addressing local technical gaps in breeding and disease prevention [2] - The company aims to reduce its debt by 10 billion yuan, reflecting a shift from rapid expansion to high-quality development [4] - The integration of slaughtering and meat processing operations is expected to enhance profitability, with a focus on optimizing product structure and expanding channels [4] Group 3 - The company is leveraging technological advancements in health management, breeding optimization, and smart applications to achieve cost control [3] - The goal for the annual cost is set at 12 yuan/kg, with a target to approach 11 yuan/kg by year-end, indicating a commitment to continuous improvement [3] - The vision of "decent pig farming" aims to reshape societal perceptions of the industry through technological innovation and improved labor conditions [4]