Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and are disturbed by news about Indonesian nickel mines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 128,000, and the closing price of stainless - steel main contract is 13,075. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 1,095,331, and that of stainless - steel main contract is 365,097 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 127,200, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 893, and the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Nickel Mine News**: Due to violation of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources department imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The government plans to revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore products in early 2026 and may lower the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [2][3][4][5][6]. - **International Trade News**: China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imported from Russia. The US President Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software". China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products from January 1st, 2026 [3][4][5]. - **Monetary Policy News**: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is +1, indicating a moderately positive outlook for both [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - and medium - term, the influence of the weak US dollar and supply concerns dominates again. The reality of weak consumption and relatively loose supply - demand has become a secondary factor. Shanghai copper drives the base metals to break through and rise. Opportunities for going long on copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and there are still supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin. There are expectations of tightening supply - demand, so the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - The weakening of the US dollar index causes copper prices to run strongly; the cost support for alumina is weak and prices remain under pressure; aluminum prices fluctuate at high levels due to inventory accumulation; the aluminum alloy market should focus on demand changes and the price fluctuates at high levels; zinc prices fluctuate at high levels with differentiated inventory trends at home and abroad; the rebound space of lead prices is limited due to the decline in the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises; nickel prices continue to rise due to the expected policy disturbances in Indonesia; the stainless - steel market is driven up by the rebound of nickel prices; high prices suppress downstream demand, and tin prices fluctuate at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Copper - **Information Analysis**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is 0 dollars/ton and 0 cents/pound. CSPT members will reduce copper ore production capacity by over 10% in 2026. In November 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On December 23, the 1 electrolytic copper spot was at a discount to the contract. As of December 22, copper inventory increased. LME plans to set and implement position limits for key and related contracts from July 6, 2026 [6][7]. - **Main Logic**: The loose liquidity supports copper prices. The supply of copper mines is increasingly disrupted, and the expectation of refined copper supply contraction is strengthened. The terminal demand is weak, and inventory accumulates, limiting the upward space for copper prices. The risk of LME copper cornering has temporarily weakened [8]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [8]. 2. Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the spot price of alumina decreased. The alumina warehouse receipt decreased by 6,641 tons [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: The high - cost production capacity has fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the inventory is strongly increasing. The raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is general. The warehouse receipt is in the process of destocking, but there is pressure on the price [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to fluctuate [10]. 3. Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased. As of December 22, aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories changed. On December 23, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt increased. In November 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum products exports changed. Some enterprises launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation, and South32 raised the aluminum ingot premium [11]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive. The domestic supply is high, and the overseas supply may tighten in the long - term. The high aluminum price suppresses demand, and the inventory accumulates [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the price center may rise [12]. 4. Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged, and the spread with AOO aluminum changed. The SHFE registered warehouse receipt remained unchanged. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production, and in October, China's scrap aluminum imports increased [13]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is solid. The operating rate is flat, and there is a risk of production reduction. The end - of - year automobile demand may weaken, and the warehouse receipt inventory is high [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [13]. 5. Zinc - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the spot premium of zinc in different regions was different. As of December 23, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. In November 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased [15]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - outlook is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the production of zinc ingots has decreased. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. In the short - term, zinc prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels. In the long - term, zinc prices may decline [16]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [16]. 6. Lead - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and SMM1 lead ingots increased. As of December 22, the lead ingot social inventory decreased, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption, and the operating rate of some enterprises has declined [17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt decreased. The supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand was mixed, with the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises slightly weakening [17]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 7. Nickel - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore pricing formula and reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The domestic nickel supply decreased in November, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The demand is in the off - season. If Indonesia's production reduction plan is implemented, the supply - demand surplus will decrease [22]. - **Outlook**: Before the policy is implemented, nickel prices may remain strong [22]. 8. Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt decreased. On December 23, the spot premium in Foshan was 45 yuan/ton. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and Indonesia plans to reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target [23]. - **Main Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported, and the production is expected to decline in December. The inventory may accumulate, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [24][25]. - **Outlook**: Before the Indonesian policy is implemented, stainless - steel prices may remain strong [25]. 9. Tin - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin position decreased. The spot price of tin increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is a concern. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia has changed, and the African supply is restricted. The demand is expected to increase with the economic and industrial development [26]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. 10. Market Monitoring - Commodity Index - On December 23, 2025, the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and PPI commodity index of CITIC Futures all increased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.01% on the day, 1.68% in the past 5 days, 5.20% in the past month, and 12.37% since the beginning of the year [154][155].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is in a volatile state. Recently, affected by the strengthened expectation of fundamental surplus, the Shanghai nickel futures market has dropped rapidly, hitting a new low of 111,700 yuan/ton this year. The spot price has also faced increased pressure to decline. Short - term production cuts of refined nickel have not changed the surplus situation, and with the decline in nickel sulfate price and insufficient motivation for nickel plate enterprises to switch production, the production of pure nickel in December is expected to increase month - on - month. In the long - term, the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" will gradually accumulate, and the center of nickel price will further decline. [3][4] 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Overview - The price of nickel has shown a volatile downward trend, while the stainless steel market has seen marginal improvement in fundamentals but still faces challenges such as high inventory. [3][4][82] Industry News - Russia's Nornickel has doubled its forecast for nickel supply surplus this year and more than doubled the forecast for 2026, expecting a surplus of 240,000 tons this year and 275,000 tons in 2026. [7] - Greenmei stated that its Indonesian Qingmeibang nickel resource project is in normal production, and the production plan for December is normal, unaffected by local social unrest. [7] - Indonesia's ESDM has simplified the regulatory rules for RKAB, reducing the number of projects from 30 to 10 to speed up project planning, exploration, and approval processes. [7] - In November, some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks may be affected by safety inspections, with an estimated impact on production of about 6,000 nickel metal tons. [7] - In September 2025, the global refined nickel production was 325,500 tons, consumption was 308,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 17,100 tons. From January to September 2025, the global refined nickel production was 2,876,900 tons, consumption was 2,602,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 274,500 tons. [7] Market Price - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 117,900 yuan/ton and closed at 115,590 yuan/ton last week, down 1.87% week - on - week. [9] - As of December 12, the spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 118,200 yuan/ton week - on - week, a decrease of 1.54%. The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,750 yuan/ton to 120,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43%, and its premium increased by 300 yuan/ton to 5,200 yuan/ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 2,050 yuan/ton to 116,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74%, and its premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton. [15] - As of December 12, the LME nickel price decreased by 350 US dollars/ton to 14,620 US dollars/ton week - on - week, a decrease of 2.34%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by 4.53 US dollars/ton to - 186.45 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss of electrolytic nickel increased by 70.57 yuan/ton to - 926.73 yuan/ton, and the export profit and loss decreased by 52.06 US dollars/ton to - 673.37 US dollars/ton. [20] - As of December 12, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 7.5 yuan/nickel point to 889 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, an increase of 0.85%. The premium of high - nickel pig iron over electrolytic nickel increased by 28 yuan/nickel point to - 271 yuan/nickel point. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 27,490 yuan/ton, and the average price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 31,250 yuan/ton. The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate over primary nickel plate increased by 1,868.19 yuan/ton to 8,954.55 yuan/ton. [28] Supply - **Nickel Ore**: As of December 12, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with grades of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively week - on - week. The domestic arrival prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% nickel ore remained unchanged at 22.5 and 51.9 US dollars/wet ton respectively. The port inventory of nickel ore decreased by 120,000 wet tons to 9.29 million wet tons, a decrease of 1.28%. In October 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a decrease of 23.41% month - on - month and an increase of 10.97% year - on - year. [33][36] - **Intermediate Products**: As of December 12, the MHP FOB price decreased by 72 US dollars/ton to 13,001 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.55%, and the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by 73 US dollars/ton to 13,259 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. In November 2025, the Indonesian MHP production decreased by 24,000 tons to 386,000 nickel tons, a decrease of 5.85%, and the high - grade nickel matte production increased by 70,000 tons to 292,000 tons, an increase of 31.53%. In October 2025, the MHP monthly import volume was 151,300 metal tons, a decrease of 20.62% month - on - month and an increase of 26.52% year - on - year; the high - grade nickel matte monthly import volume was 28,300 metal tons, a decrease of 50.06% month - on - month and a decrease of 13.33% year - on - year. [42] - **Refined Nickel**: In November 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly production decreased by 10,100 tons to 25,800 tons, a decrease of 28.13% month - on - month and 16.28% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 3.15% month - on - month and 0.76% year - on - year; the monthly import volume was 9,700 tons, a decrease of 65.66% month - on - month and 5.67% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China's refined nickel cumulative export volume was 150,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 55.2%; the cumulative import volume was 197,400 tons, a cumulative increase of 168.23%. As of December 12, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 486 tons to 35,300 tons, an increase of 1.40%, and the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 84 tons to 253,000 tons, a decrease of 0.03%. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 2,122 tons to 59,000 tons, an increase of 3.73%. [50][51] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In November 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly production increased by 438 tons to 36,700 nickel tons, an increase of 1.21%. In October 2025, China's nickel sulfate monthly import volume was 22,100 tons, a decrease of 25.32% month - on - month and an increase of 114.15% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 1,058.24 tons, an increase of 31.23% month - on - month and a decrease of 53.20% year - on - year. [64] - **Nickel Iron**: In November 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 900 tons to 27,200 tons, a decrease of 3.23%. The Indonesian nickel pig iron production decreased by 300 tons to 148,800 nickel tons. As of October 2025, China's nickel iron monthly import volume was 905,100 tons (equivalent to 111,300 tons of metal content), a decrease of 18.40% month - on - month and an increase of 30.31% year - on - year. [75] - **Stainless Steel**: In November 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 20,700 tons to 3.4931 million tons, a decrease of 0.59% month - on - month and an increase of 5.26% year - on - year. The estimated crude steel production in December is 3.2258 million tons, a decrease of 7.65% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's stainless steel monthly import volume was 124,100 tons, an increase of 3.18% month - on - month and a decrease of 21.56% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 358,100 tons, a decrease of 14.43% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year. [87] Demand - The demand for nickel in traditional fields is weak, unable to boost the price. The demand for nickel sulfate has slowed down after the peak season, and the procurement volume of ternary enterprises for nickel salts has declined. The demand for stainless steel is affected by factors such as high inventory and tight corporate funds at the end of the year, which restricts the upward movement of the market. [3][4] Cost - In November 2025, the SMM average production cost of electrolytic nickel decreased by 170 US dollars/ton to 13,208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.27%. The production costs of integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte for producing electrowon nickel increased by 216 yuan/ton and decreased by 4,667 yuan/ton respectively to 111,026 yuan/ton and 124,817 yuan/ton; the profit margins decreased by 0.5 and increased by 3.3 percentage points respectively to 9.0% and - 3.0%. [57] - In the cost of nickel sulfate production, as of December 12, the profit margins of MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag for producing nickel sulfate increased by 1.7, 1.5, 1.8, and 1.1 percentage points respectively to 0.9%, - 0.5%, 6.1%, and - 3.1%. [68] - In the cost of nickel pig iron production, as of December 12, the cash cost of RKEF production in Fujian decreased by 14.03 yuan/nickel point to 951.13 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin increased by 2.15 percentage points to - 6.44%. [81] - In the cost of stainless steel production, the cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased by 22 yuan/ton to 12,490 yuan/ton week - on - week, an increase of 0.18%. [94] Inventory - The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased to 59,000 tons as of December 12. The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 16,700 tons to 1.0636 million tons, a decrease of 1.55%, and the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 1,816 tons to 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2.95%. [51][90]

Report Overview - Date: December 15, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Research Area: Green Finance and New Energy Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Nickel: Excess shows a structural shift, with attention on Indonesian policy risks [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices oscillate at low levels [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: De - stocking continues, but spot trading is weak, and range - bound oscillations persist [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Monitor the environmental protection progress in Xinjiang [2][12] - Polysilicon: The futures market oscillates at high levels [2][12] Detailed Summaries by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data -沪镍主力收盘价115,590元，较前一交易日跌280元；不锈钢主力收盘价12,565元，涨65元 [4] - 1进口镍价格116,000元，降700元；俄镍升贴水600元，不变 [4] News - 印尼林业工作组接管超148公顷镍矿区，预计月影响镍矿产量约600金属吨 [4] - 中国暂停对俄进口铜和镍非官方补贴 [5] - 印尼对190家采矿公司制裁，提交索赔计划可取消 [5][6] - 印尼规范矿山RKAB审批程序 [6] - 特朗普宣称或对中国额外征100%关税并管制软件出口 [6] - 印尼暂停发放新冶炼许可证 [7] - 印尼园区安全检查影响镍湿法项目产量，12月约6000镍金属吨 [7] - 纽约联储主席等发表鸽派言论，提升12月降息概率 [7] - 中国对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理 [7] Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - 2601合约收盘价95,920元，跌1,060元；成交量47,866手，降7,332手 [9] - 现货-2601为 - 1,420元，电池级碳酸锂94,500元，涨1,000元 [9] News - SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价涨，均价9.45万元/吨 [10] - 30家样本锂矿贸易商库存增，可售库存11.4万吨 [10][11] Trend Intensity - Lithium Carbonate: 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Si2601收盘价8,435元，涨150元；PS2605收盘价57,190元，涨1,425元 [12] - 工业硅社会库存56.1万吨，企业库存18.7万吨 [12] - 多晶硅厂家库存29.3万吨，企业利润8.0元/千克 [12] News - 2025年Q3美国新增光伏装机11.7GW，同比增20%、环比增49%，但行业有扩张抑制因素 [12][13][14] Trend Intensity - Industrial Silicon: 0; Polysilicon: 0 [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of refined nickel have undergone a structural shift, but the current and expected overall surplus still restricts the upside of nickel prices. From the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, attention should be paid to the impact of hidden restocking and news from Indonesia. Short - term short - selling at low levels is not recommended, and opportunities for short - selling on rallies in the medium - to - long - term can be considered, combined with options for upside risk protection [1]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the valuation range is anchored by costs and profits. The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should also be paid to the policy risks from Indonesia from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: Refined nickel is moving towards a pattern of weak supply and demand. The demand for corrosion - resistant alloys is under pressure. Many enterprises have shifted to nickel sulfate production, and the slope of refined nickel inventory accumulation has slowed down, but the overall surplus and the expectation of wet - process production may still drag down nickel prices. Attention should be paid to hidden restocking expectations and news risks from Indonesia [1]. - **Inventory**: This week, China's social refined nickel inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of stainless steel are both weak. The production schedule in December decreased to 3.16 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cost center has shifted upward, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 30, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In November, SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. On December 11, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.55% week - on - week [5]. New Energy Sector - **Inventory**: On December 12, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by +1, 0, 0 month - on - month to 5, 9, 7 days respectively. On December 4, the precursor inventory increased by 0.4 week - on - week to 12.8 days. On December 11, the ternary material inventory remained flat at 6.9 days week - on - week [4][5]. Market News - In Indonesia, the forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect a monthly nickel ore production of about 600 metal tons. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for some products. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks will reduce production due to safety inspections [6][8]. - The US President Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software". New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December. China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [7][8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 115,590, with a change of - 280 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,565, with a change of +65 compared to the previous day [10].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged, reaching a historical high of over $57 per ounce, coinciding with a significant trading disruption at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) due to a cooling system failure at a data center, leading to speculation about market manipulation to protect market makers from potential losses [6][25][33] Group 1: CME Incident - On November 28, CME announced a trading halt due to a cooling issue at the CyrusOne data center, which lasted for 9 hours and affected various markets including gold, silver, and U.S. Treasury futures, with nominal contract values reaching several hundred million dollars [7][25][29] - The incident disrupted the price discovery process in global derivatives markets, causing significant volatility and widening spreads in gold and silver [7][26] - Analysts noted that the timing of the CME outage, coinciding with a spike in silver prices, led to discussions about potential market manipulation to protect exposed market makers [8][26] Group 2: Market Maker Risks - Market makers, who provide liquidity, faced extreme risks during the silver price surge due to their reliance on real-time hedging, which became ineffective in a rapidly moving market [9][27] - The concentration of short positions among market makers during a one-sided market led to significant losses as they accumulated large amounts of losing positions [10][28] - The volatility index for silver options surged by 12.74% on November 28, indicating heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for hedging [10][29] Group 3: Historical Context - The speculation surrounding CME's actions is reminiscent of past incidents where exchanges intervened during extreme market conditions, such as the nickel trading halt by the London Metal Exchange (LME) in March 2022 [12][31] - Historical events involving silver, such as the Hunt brothers' market manipulation in the 1970s, highlight the potential for liquidity crises in commodity markets [12][32] Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent surge in silver prices, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, raises questions about whether this trend will continue or if it marks a turning point [15][33] - Analysts suggest that the tightness in silver supply and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties may support prices, but caution against potential volatility due to speculative profit-taking [16][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 115,530, up 1,480 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract is 12,335, up 45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 148,534, up 10,331 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless - steel's main contract is 204,886, down 29,038 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Nickel Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 116,000, up 1,000 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, down 2 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000, down 80 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [1] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [2] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted if the companies submit a claim plan and place the claim guarantee by 2025 [2][3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed by November 15. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15 [3] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for projects producing "restricted products" through the OSS platform [4] - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production in December [4] - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are under pressure and fluctuating at a low level, with the nickel market also affected by various factors such as policy changes and production adjustments in Indonesia [1]. - The trend intensity for nickel is +1, and for stainless steel is also +1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 114,050, down 1,330 compared to the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,290, up 1 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 138,203, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 233,924 [1]. - **Nickel - related Product Prices**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 115,000, down 1,600 compared to the previous day; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 891, down 4 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Stainless Steel Product Prices**: The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 12,675, up 200 compared to the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu was 13,250, unchanged compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Mining Policy**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 nickel metal tons per month. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the issuance of new smelting licenses for some nickel - related products has been suspended [1][2][4]. - **International Trade Policy**: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [2][3]. - **Production Adjustment**: Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons of output [4]. - **Monetary Policy**: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4].

Report Overview - Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure to fluctuate [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Weak market conditions are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][5] - Lithium Carbonate: There are limited fundamental changes; attention should be paid to market sentiment [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: The strategy is to short at high prices [2][14] - Polysilicon: Monitor when long-short spread trading funds exit [2][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,650 yuan, down 3,060 yuan from T - 5. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,335 yuan, down 90 yuan from T - 5 [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel mine, and China suspended an unofficial subsidy for Russian nickel imports [5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 99,300 yuan, up 12,720 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose, and a lithium concentrate auction was held [11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2601 closing price was 9,390 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan from T - 5. The PS2601 closing price was 54,625 yuan/ton, up 1,165 yuan from T - 5 [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: A Turkish - German joint venture plans to build a solar cell and silicon wafer factory [14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On November 17, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated at a low level, with trading volume and open interest decreasing, and LME nickel prices falling 1.45%. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are weak and there is inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate at a low level and test the support around 115,000 [11]. - Stainless steel: On November 17, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range, with trading volume increasing and open interest increasing. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 102,915 lots, a decrease of 15,806 lots, and the open interest of the active contract was 107,341 lots, a decrease of 4,908 lots [2]. - LME 3 - month nickel's spot official price, electronic - disk closing price, and on - floor closing price decreased, with trading volume decreasing by 6,785 lots [2]. Inventory - Shanghai nickel inventory was 35,027 tons, an increase of 799 tons. LME nickel registered warrants decreased by 243,738 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5,604 tons [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and import inventory decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic production in November decreased, and Indonesian production increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in November decreased, and electrolytic nickel import losses widened [11]. - Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [11]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level and test the support around 115,000 [11]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Stainless - steel Market Price and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts showed different changes. The trading volume of the active contract was 137,113 lots, an increase of 17,461 lots, and the open interest was 172,728 lots, an increase of 4,992 lots [2]. Inventory - Shanghai stainless - steel inventory decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventory was 623,200 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons [13]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production in November decreased, and 300 - series production was basically flat [13]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [13]. Cost - High - grade pig iron prices and high - carbon ferrochrome prices decreased [13]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price fails to break through the previous low support effectively, take profit and wait and see [13]. Industry News - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the second batch of projects to be promoted by the National Major Projects Office, including the Sisson nickel project, the Matavanie Mountain project, and the Crawford project. The Crawford project has the world's second - largest nickel reserves and resources, with a total investment of 3.5 billion Canadian dollars and is expected to produce 3.5 billion pounds of nickel, 52.9 million pounds of copper, etc. over a 41 - year mining period [10].