Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are likely to be subject to the long - short game between reality and expectations, continuing to fluctuate in the short term. If the long - term mine - end logic weakens, there may be a trading logic of "de - valuation - de - production" pressure on refined nickel [1]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Negative feedback and inventory pressure will weigh on the short - term market, while the cost side limits the downward elasticity. Increased production cuts in June will ease the pressure in the long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Fundamental Analysis - **Mine end**: The short - term support logic of the nickel ore end remains unchanged. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore in June in some parks is determined, with the margin flat compared to May. The market's concern about the increase in Indonesian quotas has cooled, and the convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore [1]. - **Smelting end**: The global visible inventory accumulation is less than expected due to replenishment demand, but the overall inventory is high. There is still an expectation of more potential supply release in the medium term, and nickel prices may face "de - valuation - de - production" pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: The production schedule of stainless steel in China in June is 3.239 million tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 1%/5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to 4%. Two Indonesian stainless steel producers have marginally cut production, with the production schedule in June at 360,000 tons, a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 9%/0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to - 2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's stainless steel import supply is expected to drop to nearly - 28% in June, and the total supply (production + imports) growth rate may be adjusted down to about 2.2% [2]. - **Demand side**: The short - term off - season and the digestion pressure of the previous high production schedule limit the upside elasticity of steel prices. The demand growth rate is expected to be around 2% - 3%. If production cuts are implemented as scheduled from June to July, the long - term oversupply pressure may be alleviated to some extent [2]. - **Cost side**: The negative feedback of production cuts puts pressure on ferronickel, which gives up some profits, but the Indonesian ore end still provides short - term support for ferronickel, thus supporting the cost of stainless steel [2]. Inventory Changes - **Refined nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,789 tons to 38,000 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 726 tons to 200,106 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel**: The ferronickel inventory at the end of May was 31,462 tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 59%/6%, and the inventory pressure increased marginally [4]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel social inventory was 1,122,258 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 680,552 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.71% [4][5]. - **Nickel ore**: China's port nickel ore inventory decreased by 290,200 wet tons to 6.9686 million wet tons [5]. Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, entering the trial production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue production suspension and maintenance from June to July, which is expected to affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term, with short - term support from the ore end and concerns about the long - term market easing, and ample supply expectations from the smelting end [1] - Stainless steel prices may oscillate within a range, with negative feedback pressure transmitted to the supply side, resulting in a weakening of both supply and demand at the margin [2] Summary by Related Contents Nickel Fundamental Analysis - Ore end: High - grade nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, supporting the cost of the integrated pyrometallurgical process. The premium of 1.6% nickel ore has increased to $27 per wet ton, with the total price rising by 26% year - on - year to $54.3 per wet ton. However, the upward speed of the Indonesian ore end is expected to slow down, and the third quarter may be a key stage for quota release and premium adjustment. The market still anticipates quota release [1] - Smelting end: Due to the negative feedback of stainless steel production cuts on ferronickel, ferronickel has returned to inventory accumulation. The ferronickel inventory in mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month. The supply of intermediate products has increased marginally, which may drag down the valuation of refined nickel [1] - Inventory: LME nickel inventory has increased this week, and refined nickel still has the possibility of returning to inventory accumulation in the long term [1] Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Negative feedback has led to an increase in production cuts. The stainless steel production plan for May is 3.425 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 5%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic stainless steel imports is expected to decline to nearly - 29% in June, and the supply growth rate may be adjusted down to about 3.3% [2] - Demand: From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of stainless steel apparent demand plus exports was + 3.0% [2] - Inventory: Stainless steel social inventory has increased by 0.85% week - on - week, with cold - rolled stainless steel inventory decreasing by 5.39% and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increasing by 10.59%. The inventory accumulation is mainly in the 400 series, while the 300 series inventory has decreased by 3.42% [6] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory has decreased by 840 tons to 42,088 tons. LME nickel inventory has increased by 3,414 tons to 198,636 tons [3] - Ferronickel: The ferronickel inventory at the end of mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month [4] - Stainless steel: Stainless steel social inventory is 1,117,668 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85% [6] - Nickel ore: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports has increased by 252,700 wet tons to 7.3151 million wet tons, mainly from the Philippines [6] Market News - Policy adjustment: Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte [7] - Production news: The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF has successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and its capacity has recovered to 70% - 80%. An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue its shutdown for maintenance in June and July, which is expected to affect the production volume of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly for the 300 series [7][8] - Export ban news: The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there are also rumors about a nickel ore export ban starting in June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental logic of Shanghai nickel may narrow the nickel price oscillation range, and market news disturbs the market sentiment. The nickel price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, with news affecting sentiment but not recommending excessive chasing of highs. If the contradiction at the Indonesian ore end intensifies, the overall oscillation center may rise slightly, but the upside potential may be limited by the economics of conversion [1]. - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, may oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and has a chance of a slight recovery in the medium - term. The bottom space is relatively clear, and if the ore shortage persists and the steel mill production cut is realized, the market may recover slightly, but the recovery space is limited [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel**: Indonesian high - grade nickel ore is in short supply, with the premium rising by 1 - 2 US dollars to 26 - 27 US dollars per wet ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 - 16 US dollars. The short - term inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the inventory decreases marginally. The smelting end is affected by stainless steel negative feedback and production cuts, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. The conversion to high - grade nickel matte may limit the upside of refined nickel valuation [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The supply and demand are weak. The seasonal inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory accumulates marginally in the off - season. Steel mills may cut production, and the cash cost is about 12,900 yuan per ton. The ore contradiction may limit the bottom space of nickel iron [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 15 tons to 43,691 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,648 tons to 197,670 tons [3]. - The nickel iron inventory at the end of April was 28,395.5 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 26% and 17% respectively [4]. - Stainless steel social inventory was 1,112,968 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. Cold - rolled stainless steel inventory increased by 3.3% week - on - week, and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increased by 2.02% week - on - week [4]. - China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 110,900 wet tons to 6.9652 million wet tons [6]. Market News - Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel ore, nickel iron, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte, which will be implemented on April 26, 2025 [7]. - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US [7]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel iron RKEF successfully produced nickel iron and entered the trial production stage [7]. - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [8]. - There are rumors about the Philippines' nickel ore export ban, but the authenticity and start time need to be verified [1][8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 123,450 yuan, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 12,720 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 111,203 lots, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 64,097 lots [10]. - Other data such as import nickel prices, nickel iron prices, and stainless steel product prices are also provided in the table [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is about to impose copper and reciprocal tariffs, which will lead to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. However, the impact on different metals varies. For example, the market for copper will quickly adjust the price difference, and the upward trend of copper prices may be near the end [2]. - The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Although the number of alumina plant overhauls is increasing, the impact on monthly production is limited. There is a possibility of a marginal decline in alumina production capacity from April to May [5][8]. - The aluminum market is supported by strong domestic demand. Despite the expected tariff increase in the US, LME aluminum shows a narrow - range sideways movement. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises'开工 rate is rising, and the demand for aluminum profiles is expected to be boosted [14][17][18]. - The zinc market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Although there is an expectation of a large increase in zinc ingot supply, the current inventory is relatively low, and domestic consumption is expected to be boosted by policies [21][23]. - The lead market is affected by factors such as high prices of waste batteries and changes in supply and demand. The price of lead is running at a high level, but the profit of secondary lead smelters is shrinking, and there is a certain willingness to reduce production [26][28]. - The nickel market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The price of nickel ore is expected to be firm due to concerns about policies and production shortages. However, in the medium - term, high prices may stimulate over - supply [31][32]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by raw material prices and demand. The price of NPI is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is still tight, but the upward space is gradually narrowing [38][39]. - The tin market is in a state of high - level wide - range oscillation. The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure to some extent in the future [44][48]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to decline. The rumor of joint production cuts by industrial silicon manufacturers is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand [50][54]. - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile. Although there is information about production cuts, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations [56][58]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to decline. The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [63][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2504 contract closed at 81,980 yuan, up 0.4%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index increased by 13,455 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The US may impose copper tariffs soon, and Glencore has suspended copper shipments from its Chilean smelter [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US copper tariff will lead to a price adjustment in the market, and the upward trend of copper prices may end. Trend - following long positions should all be liquidated [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [2]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2504 contract rose 34 yuan/ton to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the weighted index decreased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina plants are undergoing overhauls, and the inventory of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased [5][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in overhauls has limited impact on monthly production. The price of alumina is expected to be volatile before substantial production cuts [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short when the price rebounds after substantial production cuts; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2504 contract closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [13]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main markets decreased, and a green - power aluminum project in Inner Mongolia is under construction. The carbon - emission trading market is expanding, and the US is considering tariff strategies [14][15]. - **Trading Logic**: The overseas macro - environment is volatile, but domestic demand is strong, which supports the price of aluminum [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of aluminum is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short - term; wait and see for options trading [19]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2505 contract rose 0.06% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot market trading sentiment in Shanghai was not high [20]. - **Related Information**: The global zinc market is in a state of supply shortage, and some mining projects are expected to be put into production [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although there is an expectation of a large increase in supply, the current low inventory and domestic policies may support consumption, and the price is in a range - bound state [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may be in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [24]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2505 contract rose 0.48% to 17,615 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot market trading was light [25]. - **Related Information**: The global lead market shows a change in supply and demand, and the domestic electric bicycle replacement policy has an impact on consumption [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of waste batteries leads to a reduction in the profit of secondary lead smelters, but domestic consumption is expected to be boosted [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of lead is running at a high level due to market sentiment; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [29]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 rose 700 to 129,670 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot price of nickel showed different trends [30]. - **Related Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives of cobalt, spodumene, and nickel. The production of an MHP project in Indonesia is affected by floods [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as raw material shortages, but there is limited upward space in the medium - term [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds [33]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract rose 50 to 13,410 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price of stainless steel is within a certain range [35]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel plant has started producing 304 materials, and India is considering a safeguard measure tariff on steel imports [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of raw materials is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is tight, but the upward space is limited [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the bottom of the price is rising, but the upward space is also limited; wait and see for arbitrage trading [40][41]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2504 contract closed at 277,650 yuan/ton, up 3460 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price of tin rose [43]. - **Related Information**: The production of a tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has stopped, and Wa State has issued a document on the resumption of tin mining [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure in the future, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of tin is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the risk of price decline; wait and see for options trading [49]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9780 yuan/ton, down 1.31%. The spot price is stable [50]. - **Related Information**: A project of an organic silicon company has been put into production [51]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rumor of joint production cuts is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and the price may decline [54]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may decline after the false rumor of production cuts; no strategy for options and arbitrage trading [55]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price closed at 43,640 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price is within a certain range [56]. - **Related Information**: Henan Province has launched a new batch of source - network - load - storage integration projects [57]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply pressure of polysilicon is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations, and the price may be volatile [58]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low prices; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct positive arbitrage for PS2506 and PS2511 contracts and reverse arbitrage for PS2511 and PS2512 contracts [59][61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 520 to 74,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price is stable [62]. - **Important Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives, and some lithium - related projects are under construction [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage trading; consider holding 2505 put ratio options [65][67].