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镍:矿端支撑有所松动,冶炼端限制上方弹性,不锈钢:库存轻微消化,钢价修复但弹性有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices may face downward pressure at low levels, with a slight expected decline in costs and limited upside potential. The support at the mine end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. - Stainless steel is operating with weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the negative feedback is transmitted to the supply side. Although the inventory has been slightly digested and the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, the driving force for continuous upward repair of steel prices is weak [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - The support at the nickel mine end is marginally loosening. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined by 2 - 25 US dollars/wet ton, and the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process is expected to slightly decrease by about 1.3%. Market concerns about the mine end have eased due to the news of increased Indonesian quotas, and the speculative sentiment has cooled [1]. - The smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry from June to July has affected the supply side. In July, the production schedule is 312,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively. Nickel - iron inventory has accumulated to a historical high, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined nickel valuation. Also, the inventory accumulation in the refined nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity pressure is increasing marginally, limiting the upside space [1]. Stainless - Steel Fundamental Analysis - Stainless - steel supply and demand are both weak. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the increase in US tariffs on household appliances containing steel parts has led to negative feedback on the supply side. In July, the marginal supply - demand may continue to be weak. The overall high factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the social inventory has been slightly reduced. With the raw material end offering concessions, the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired [2]. - The production schedule of stainless steel in July is 31,200 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 3%. In May, China's stainless - steel imports were 125,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. Indonesia's production schedule in July has recovered to 43,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 33% and 32% respectively, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2% [2]. - The surplus pressure has shifted from stainless steel to nickel - iron. The nickel - iron inventory has increased to a historical high. At the end of June, the nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively. The price of nickel - iron raw materials has decreased to 910 yuan/nickel, and the cash cost center of stainless - steel gross basis has moved down to about 12,500 yuan/ton, and the delivery profit has been marginally repaired [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory has increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased by 198 tons to 21,059 tons, the spot inventory has increased by 1,607 tons to 11,571 tons, and the bonded area inventory has increased by 20 tons to 5,390 tons. The LME nickel inventory has decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons [3]. - The nickel - iron inventory at the end of June was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively, and the inventory pressure has increased marginally [4]. - On July 3, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1568 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 625,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 531,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% [4]. - The nickel - ore inventory at Chinese ports has increased by 1.1261 million wet tons to 8.7184 million wet tons. Among them, the Philippine nickel ore is 8.6424 million wet tons. Classified by nickel - ore grade, the low - nickel and high - iron ore is 4.4548 million wet tons, and the medium - and high - grade nickel ore is 4.2636 million wet tons [6]. Market News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are also crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [7]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, marking the project's entry into the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing nickel - iron with a grade of 22%, and each production line has an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [7]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal - processing park has resumed production. The plant's almost entire production capacity was shut down in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings reservoir area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill has tentatively decided to continue the shutdown for maintenance from June to July, and may adjust according to the market situation later. This shutdown is expected to affect the production volume by 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the production of 300 - series stainless steel. The mill had already cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) welcomes the decision of the two - house committee to remove the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), including suspected poor wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailings areas. The deputy minister in charge of environmental law enforcement said that companies found to have violated the law in IMIP may be fined, and the entire industrial park will be audited [8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,270 yuan, with changes compared to different time points (T - 1, T - 5, etc.) as shown in the table. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,730 yuan, also with corresponding changes [11]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 111,042 lots, and that of the main stainless - steel contract is 102,164 lots, with changes compared to different time points [11]. - Other data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel - bean premium and discount, and various spreads and costs are also provided in the table [11].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250630
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 02:19
Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].
镍:矿端支撑有所松动,冶炼端限制上方弹性,不锈钢:库存边际小幅去化,钢价修复但弹性有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-29 09:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The downside space of nickel prices depends on the support at the mine end. The news of increased quotas in Indonesia affects the mine - end expectations, and the third quarter is often the stage of quota release and premium callback. In July, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore may slightly decline. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic becomes less significant, if pricing returns to the smelting - end fundamentals, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. In July, the stainless - steel production in China and Indonesia stabilizes, nickel - iron inventory accumulates to a historical high, and the negative feedback pressures the nickel - iron valuation, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined - nickel valuation. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, while the operating capacity increases marginally, and supply elasticity limits the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, it operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, boosting the market. However, the tariff increase on household appliances containing steel parts in the US and the weak short - term off - season demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. After the negative feedback leads to a decline in actual supply, the overall high factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces. If the production - cut expectation is continuously verified in the inventory, the suppression of stainless - steel profit by over - supply may ease, but the overall cost center moves down, and the raw - material end of nickel - iron gives up profits, limiting the upside repair elasticity of steel prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel fundamentals**: The support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the smelting - end logic restricts the upside elasticity. The news of increased Indonesian quotas affects mine - end expectations, and the third - quarter is a stage of quota release and premium callback. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic fades, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity increases marginally [1]. - **Stainless - steel fundamentals**: It operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, but the tariff increase in the US and weak short - term demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. The production in China and Indonesia has different trends, and after the negative feedback on supply, the factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces [2]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increases by 120 tons to 36,591 tons, with a decrease in warehouse - receipt inventory and an increase in spot inventory, and the bonded - area inventory remains unchanged. The LME nickel inventory decreases by 846 tons to 204,294 tons. The nickel - iron inventory in mid - June increases year - on - year and month - on - month, and the port nickel - ore inventory in China increases by 199,900 wet tons to 7.5923 million wet tons [3][5]. - **Stainless - steel inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreases by 0.25% week - on - week. The cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory decreases, while the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory increases. The inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel also shows a decrease in the total and cold - rolled inventory and an increase in the hot - rolled inventory [3]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produces nickel - iron and enters the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [6]. - A nickel smelter in an important Indonesian metal - processing park resumes production, and the capacity of the Indonesian QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill suspends production for maintenance from June to July, which may affect the production of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly of the 300 - series [6]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal - system bill [7]. - Environmental violations are found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [7]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and other relevant data of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices, premiums, and spreads of related products such as imported nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel products, are presented in the table, showing different trends compared with previous periods [10].
镍:远端镍矿端预期松动,冶炼端限制上方弹性,不锈钢:供需边际双弱,钢价低位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The global visible inventory is accumulating marginally. The high cost of pyrometallurgical integration in Indonesia may limit the downside space of nickel prices, but news about increased quotas in Indonesia and potential changes in the Philippines' export policy have cooled market concerns and speculation about the ore end. The smelting end lacks demand highlights, and supply elasticity restricts the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, the supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and the steel price is oscillating at a low level. The pressure release after the easing of tariffs is not obvious, and new tariffs from the US and weak off - season demand restrict the upside elasticity of steel prices. Negative feedback has spread to the supply side, and the overall inventory needs to be digested. In the short - term, the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and in the long - term, the pressure on the profit link may ease if production cuts continue and an inventory inflection point is seen, but the steel price center may not rise significantly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamentals Nickel - The logic of the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. The global refined nickel visible inventory is accumulating, and there are expectations of more potential supply in the medium - term. The negative feedback from stainless steel has led to increased production cuts and pressure on ferronickel, which in turn restricts the upside of refined nickel valuations [1]. Stainless Steel - Production and imports are declining marginally, and the current inventory is still under pressure. The supply - demand relationship has turned weak. The production schedule in June shows a year - on - year and month - on - month decline, and the inventory needs to be digested. The steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, with decreases in warehouse receipt, spot, and bonded area inventories. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons [3]. - The ferronickel inventory in mid - June increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month, with increasing inventory pressure [4]. - The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in cold - rolled, hot - rolled, and 300 - series inventories [4]. - China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 173,700 wet tons to 7.3924 million wet tons, an increase of 2.41% [6]. Market News - In March, the Ontario provincial governor of Canada proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [7]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial - production stage [7]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the companies involved and will audit the entire park [8]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides a table of weekly key data for nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, trading volumes, premiums, spreads, and prices of related products in the industrial chain [11]. Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, trading volumes, inventories, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures contracts, as well as the prices and inventories of related raw materials [12][15][17][19][22][24][26]
沪镍重心下移,火法冶炼成本面临考验?
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-12 13:59
Group 1 - Nickel prices have recently declined due to the Philippines' decision to remove the export ban on raw minerals, which has impacted market sentiment and led to a drop in prices [1] - The Philippines aims to promote domestic mining development by implementing a mineral export ban similar to Indonesia's, but the current weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors has dampened investment motivation [1][2] - Indonesia has become the largest producer of nickel globally, and its new nickel mining quota approval policy has slowed down the approval process, affecting market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in nickel prices, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to seasonal weather impacts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, which has kept prices relatively high [3][4] - Domestic nickel iron smelting plants are experiencing losses, leading to reduced production and a decline in procurement demand [4][5] - The production of nickel intermediate products, particularly MHP, is expected to increase, which may lead to a further decline in cost levels in the industry [7][9] Group 3 - The demand for refined nickel has shown positive growth, particularly driven by the emerging need for pre-plated nickel materials in battery production, which is expected to create a significant supply-demand gap [13] - Traditional demand from stainless steel production is weakening, with notable reductions in output and a slower pace of inventory depletion [14][15] - The overall supply tightness in nickel ore and intermediate products is expected to provide cost support for nickel prices, although weak terminal demand may limit price increases [17]
镍:现实支撑与弱势预期博弈,镍价震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-08 08:08
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are likely to be subject to the long - short game between reality and expectations, continuing to fluctuate in the short term. If the long - term mine - end logic weakens, there may be a trading logic of "de - valuation - de - production" pressure on refined nickel [1]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Negative feedback and inventory pressure will weigh on the short - term market, while the cost side limits the downward elasticity. Increased production cuts in June will ease the pressure in the long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Fundamental Analysis - **Mine end**: The short - term support logic of the nickel ore end remains unchanged. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore in June in some parks is determined, with the margin flat compared to May. The market's concern about the increase in Indonesian quotas has cooled, and the convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore [1]. - **Smelting end**: The global visible inventory accumulation is less than expected due to replenishment demand, but the overall inventory is high. There is still an expectation of more potential supply release in the medium term, and nickel prices may face "de - valuation - de - production" pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: The production schedule of stainless steel in China in June is 3.239 million tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 1%/5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to 4%. Two Indonesian stainless steel producers have marginally cut production, with the production schedule in June at 360,000 tons, a year - on - year/month - on - month decrease of 9%/0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has dropped to - 2%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's stainless steel import supply is expected to drop to nearly - 28% in June, and the total supply (production + imports) growth rate may be adjusted down to about 2.2% [2]. - **Demand side**: The short - term off - season and the digestion pressure of the previous high production schedule limit the upside elasticity of steel prices. The demand growth rate is expected to be around 2% - 3%. If production cuts are implemented as scheduled from June to July, the long - term oversupply pressure may be alleviated to some extent [2]. - **Cost side**: The negative feedback of production cuts puts pressure on ferronickel, which gives up some profits, but the Indonesian ore end still provides short - term support for ferronickel, thus supporting the cost of stainless steel [2]. Inventory Changes - **Refined nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,789 tons to 38,000 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 726 tons to 200,106 tons [3]. - **Ferronickel**: The ferronickel inventory at the end of May was 31,462 tons, with a year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 59%/6%, and the inventory pressure increased marginally [4]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel social inventory was 1,122,258 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 680,552 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.71% [4][5]. - **Nickel ore**: China's port nickel ore inventory decreased by 290,200 wet tons to 6.9686 million wet tons [5]. Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, entering the trial production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there is market news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue production suspension and maintenance from June to July, which is expected to affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7].
镍:弱预期压制镍价,现实成本支撑,不锈钢:供需边际双弱,钢价震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 10:14
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term, with short - term support from the ore end and concerns about the long - term market easing, and ample supply expectations from the smelting end [1] - Stainless steel prices may oscillate within a range, with negative feedback pressure transmitted to the supply side, resulting in a weakening of both supply and demand at the margin [2] Summary by Related Contents Nickel Fundamental Analysis - Ore end: High - grade nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, supporting the cost of the integrated pyrometallurgical process. The premium of 1.6% nickel ore has increased to $27 per wet ton, with the total price rising by 26% year - on - year to $54.3 per wet ton. However, the upward speed of the Indonesian ore end is expected to slow down, and the third quarter may be a key stage for quota release and premium adjustment. The market still anticipates quota release [1] - Smelting end: Due to the negative feedback of stainless steel production cuts on ferronickel, ferronickel has returned to inventory accumulation. The ferronickel inventory in mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month. The supply of intermediate products has increased marginally, which may drag down the valuation of refined nickel [1] - Inventory: LME nickel inventory has increased this week, and refined nickel still has the possibility of returning to inventory accumulation in the long term [1] Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Negative feedback has led to an increase in production cuts. The stainless steel production plan for May is 3.425 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 5%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic stainless steel imports is expected to decline to nearly - 29% in June, and the supply growth rate may be adjusted down to about 3.3% [2] - Demand: From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of stainless steel apparent demand plus exports was + 3.0% [2] - Inventory: Stainless steel social inventory has increased by 0.85% week - on - week, with cold - rolled stainless steel inventory decreasing by 5.39% and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increasing by 10.59%. The inventory accumulation is mainly in the 400 series, while the 300 series inventory has decreased by 3.42% [6] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory has decreased by 840 tons to 42,088 tons. LME nickel inventory has increased by 3,414 tons to 198,636 tons [3] - Ferronickel: The ferronickel inventory at the end of mid - May was 29,554.5 tons, up 36% year - on - year and 4% month - on - month [4] - Stainless steel: Stainless steel social inventory is 1,117,668 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85% [6] - Nickel ore: The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports has increased by 252,700 wet tons to 7.3151 million wet tons, mainly from the Philippines [6] Market News - Policy adjustment: Indonesia has increased the resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte [7] - Production news: The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF has successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and its capacity has recovered to 70% - 80%. An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue its shutdown for maintenance in June and July, which is expected to affect the production volume of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly for the 300 series [7][8] - Export ban news: The Philippines is discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, and there are also rumors about a nickel ore export ban starting in June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [8]
镍:消息面扰动情绪,基本面变化有限,不锈钢:社会库存边际累增,盘面成本预期支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 07:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental logic of Shanghai nickel may narrow the nickel price oscillation range, and market news disturbs the market sentiment. The nickel price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, with news affecting sentiment but not recommending excessive chasing of highs. If the contradiction at the Indonesian ore end intensifies, the overall oscillation center may rise slightly, but the upside potential may be limited by the economics of conversion [1]. - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, may oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and has a chance of a slight recovery in the medium - term. The bottom space is relatively clear, and if the ore shortage persists and the steel mill production cut is realized, the market may recover slightly, but the recovery space is limited [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel**: Indonesian high - grade nickel ore is in short supply, with the premium rising by 1 - 2 US dollars to 26 - 27 US dollars per wet ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 - 16 US dollars. The short - term inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the inventory decreases marginally. The smelting end is affected by stainless steel negative feedback and production cuts, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. The conversion to high - grade nickel matte may limit the upside of refined nickel valuation [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The supply and demand are weak. The seasonal inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory accumulates marginally in the off - season. Steel mills may cut production, and the cash cost is about 12,900 yuan per ton. The ore contradiction may limit the bottom space of nickel iron [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 15 tons to 43,691 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,648 tons to 197,670 tons [3]. - The nickel iron inventory at the end of April was 28,395.5 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 26% and 17% respectively [4]. - Stainless steel social inventory was 1,112,968 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. Cold - rolled stainless steel inventory increased by 3.3% week - on - week, and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increased by 2.02% week - on - week [4]. - China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 110,900 wet tons to 6.9652 million wet tons [6]. Market News - Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel ore, nickel iron, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte, which will be implemented on April 26, 2025 [7]. - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US [7]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel iron RKEF successfully produced nickel iron and entered the trial production stage [7]. - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [8]. - There are rumors about the Philippines' nickel ore export ban, but the authenticity and start time need to be verified [1][8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 123,450 yuan, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 12,720 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 111,203 lots, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 64,097 lots [10]. - Other data such as import nickel prices, nickel iron prices, and stainless steel product prices are also provided in the table [10].
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-2025-03-26
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-03-26 13:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is about to impose copper and reciprocal tariffs, which will lead to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. However, the impact on different metals varies. For example, the market for copper will quickly adjust the price difference, and the upward trend of copper prices may be near the end [2]. - The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Although the number of alumina plant overhauls is increasing, the impact on monthly production is limited. There is a possibility of a marginal decline in alumina production capacity from April to May [5][8]. - The aluminum market is supported by strong domestic demand. Despite the expected tariff increase in the US, LME aluminum shows a narrow - range sideways movement. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises'开工 rate is rising, and the demand for aluminum profiles is expected to be boosted [14][17][18]. - The zinc market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Although there is an expectation of a large increase in zinc ingot supply, the current inventory is relatively low, and domestic consumption is expected to be boosted by policies [21][23]. - The lead market is affected by factors such as high prices of waste batteries and changes in supply and demand. The price of lead is running at a high level, but the profit of secondary lead smelters is shrinking, and there is a certain willingness to reduce production [26][28]. - The nickel market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The price of nickel ore is expected to be firm due to concerns about policies and production shortages. However, in the medium - term, high prices may stimulate over - supply [31][32]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by raw material prices and demand. The price of NPI is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is still tight, but the upward space is gradually narrowing [38][39]. - The tin market is in a state of high - level wide - range oscillation. The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure to some extent in the future [44][48]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to decline. The rumor of joint production cuts by industrial silicon manufacturers is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand [50][54]. - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile. Although there is information about production cuts, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations [56][58]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to decline. The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [63][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2504 contract closed at 81,980 yuan, up 0.4%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index increased by 13,455 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The US may impose copper tariffs soon, and Glencore has suspended copper shipments from its Chilean smelter [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US copper tariff will lead to a price adjustment in the market, and the upward trend of copper prices may end. Trend - following long positions should all be liquidated [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [2]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2504 contract rose 34 yuan/ton to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the weighted index decreased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina plants are undergoing overhauls, and the inventory of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased [5][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in overhauls has limited impact on monthly production. The price of alumina is expected to be volatile before substantial production cuts [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short when the price rebounds after substantial production cuts; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2504 contract closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [13]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main markets decreased, and a green - power aluminum project in Inner Mongolia is under construction. The carbon - emission trading market is expanding, and the US is considering tariff strategies [14][15]. - **Trading Logic**: The overseas macro - environment is volatile, but domestic demand is strong, which supports the price of aluminum [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of aluminum is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short - term; wait and see for options trading [19]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2505 contract rose 0.06% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot market trading sentiment in Shanghai was not high [20]. - **Related Information**: The global zinc market is in a state of supply shortage, and some mining projects are expected to be put into production [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although there is an expectation of a large increase in supply, the current low inventory and domestic policies may support consumption, and the price is in a range - bound state [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may be in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [24]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2505 contract rose 0.48% to 17,615 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot market trading was light [25]. - **Related Information**: The global lead market shows a change in supply and demand, and the domestic electric bicycle replacement policy has an impact on consumption [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of waste batteries leads to a reduction in the profit of secondary lead smelters, but domestic consumption is expected to be boosted [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of lead is running at a high level due to market sentiment; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [29]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 rose 700 to 129,670 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot price of nickel showed different trends [30]. - **Related Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives of cobalt, spodumene, and nickel. The production of an MHP project in Indonesia is affected by floods [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as raw material shortages, but there is limited upward space in the medium - term [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds [33]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract rose 50 to 13,410 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price of stainless steel is within a certain range [35]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel plant has started producing 304 materials, and India is considering a safeguard measure tariff on steel imports [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of raw materials is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is tight, but the upward space is limited [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the bottom of the price is rising, but the upward space is also limited; wait and see for arbitrage trading [40][41]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2504 contract closed at 277,650 yuan/ton, up 3460 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price of tin rose [43]. - **Related Information**: The production of a tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has stopped, and Wa State has issued a document on the resumption of tin mining [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure in the future, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of tin is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the risk of price decline; wait and see for options trading [49]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9780 yuan/ton, down 1.31%. The spot price is stable [50]. - **Related Information**: A project of an organic silicon company has been put into production [51]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rumor of joint production cuts is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and the price may decline [54]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may decline after the false rumor of production cuts; no strategy for options and arbitrage trading [55]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price closed at 43,640 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price is within a certain range [56]. - **Related Information**: Henan Province has launched a new batch of source - network - load - storage integration projects [57]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply pressure of polysilicon is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations, and the price may be volatile [58]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low prices; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct positive arbitrage for PS2506 and PS2511 contracts and reverse arbitrage for PS2511 and PS2512 contracts [59][61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 520 to 74,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price is stable [62]. - **Important Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives, and some lithium - related projects are under construction [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage trading; consider holding 2505 put ratio options [65][67].