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农产品日报:出栏积极性有所上升,猪价维持震荡-20250715
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 05:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - In the pig market, with the expectation of increased future supply, the spot price is likely to continue to decline. Entering the seasonal consumption off - season, there is no obvious short - term boost on the demand side. Secondary fattening demand may enter the market when the price drops to around 14 yuan/kg. Policy - related factors such as state reserve purchases and sales and the "anti - involution" policy need attention, as well as supply - side slaughter changes [2] - In the egg market, the current demand remains at a normal level during the off - season. The cold - storage warehousing in northern sales areas has slowed down, and traders are cautious in purchasing. The approaching end of the plum - rain season in southern sales areas and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival have limited impact on demand. The short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and farmers will continue to incur losses [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,285 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (- 0.42%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The price of external ternary live hogs in Henan was 14.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 15.10 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.04 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.90 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.08 yuan/kg. The spot basis in Henan was LH09 + 315, a change of - 40; in Jiangsu, it was LH09 + 815, a change of + 20; in Sichuan, it was LH09 - 385, a change of - 220 [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on July 14: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.02, down 0.33 points from last Friday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.12, down 0.38 points. The average price of pork was 20.60 yuan/kg, unchanged; beef was 63.92 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 59.38 yuan/kg, unchanged; eggs were 6.97 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; white - striped chickens were 17.21 yuan/kg, up 1.2% [1] Market Analysis - Due to expected supply increase and the seasonal consumption off - season, the spot price may decline. Secondary fattening may enter the market when the price reaches around 14 yuan/kg. Policy factors and supply - side slaughter changes need to be monitored [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3461 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 19 yuan (+ 0.55%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.22; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.25; in Hebei, it was 2.58 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.07. The spot basis in Liaoning was JD08 - 881, a change of + 201; in Shandong, it was JD08 - 611, a change of + 231; in Hebei, it was JD08 - 881, a change of + 51 [3] - Inventory: On July 14, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous trading day; the circulation - link inventory was 0.98 days, a decrease of 0.34 days [3] Market Analysis - The current demand is weak during the off - season. Cold - storage warehousing in northern areas has slowed down, and the approaching end of the plum - rain season and the postponed Mid - Autumn Festival in southern areas have limited impact on demand. The short - term oversupply pattern will continue, and farmers will keep losing money [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]
农产品日报:需求仍显清淡,生猪现价维持震荡-20250613
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 02:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hog market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - In the hog market, with decent current breeding profits, the supply - side won't make significant strategic adjustments. Constrained by stable downstream consumption, the demand side is unlikely to improve. The market will likely maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure of large fat hogs is currently high with insufficient demand, and there may be a wide - spread inversion of the price difference between fat and standard hogs, which will also put pressure on the supply of standard hogs, increasing future supply pressure [2] - In the egg market, after the Dragon Boat Festival, demand declined as all sectors actively cleared inventories. After the college entrance examination this week, school demand decreased, while tourism and catering demand increased. However, due to the current high - temperature and high - humidity conditions, the storage time of eggs is reduced, and traders are cautious in purchasing, preferring to buy as needed. Overall demand remains weak, and the market pattern of oversupply in the short term is difficult to change [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hog Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the hog 2509 contract yesterday was 13,750 yuan/ton, a change of +150.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +1.10% [1] - Spot: The price of三元hogs in Henan was 14.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.24 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.88 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product prices on June 12: The "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 113.09, down 0.08 points from the previous day. The "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 113.18, down 0.09 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.33 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; beef was 62.96 yuan/kg, down 1.0%; mutton was 59.53 yuan/kg, down 0.7%; eggs were 7.31 yuan/kg, down 1.1%; and white - striped chickens were 17.05 yuan/kg, down 0.1% [1] Market Analysis - The supply - side won't make major adjustments due to good breeding profits. The demand side is weak, and the market will maintain a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. The supply pressure of large fat hogs is high, and there may be price - difference inversion, increasing future supply pressure [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract yesterday was 3489 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 26.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.74% [3] - Spot: The egg price in Liaoning was 2.47 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.70 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.56 yuan/jin, with no change [3] - Inventory: On June 12, the national production - link inventory was 1.08 days, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.56 days, a decrease of 0.10 days from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand declined due to inventory clearance. After the college entrance examination, school demand decreased, and tourism and catering demand increased. High - temperature and high - humidity conditions make traders cautious, and overall demand is weak, with the short - term oversupply pattern hard to change [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]
栀子花开东门砦
Chang Jiang Ri Bao· 2025-06-02 02:30
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the economic transformation of Dongmenzai Village, known for its abundant gardenia flowers, which has become a significant source of income for local residents through flower cultivation and related industries [3][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Dongmenzai Village has developed 500 acres of gardenia fields, with 105 households involved in this fragrant industry, creating a flower fragrance industry chain from fresh flower sales to deep processing [3][10]. - Villager Li Guifeng earned approximately 80,000 yuan from flower sales last year, indicating the profitability of gardenia cultivation [4]. - The village's annual production of fresh flowers reached between 4 million to 8 million blooms by 2021, making it a crucial income source for residents [9]. Group 2: Market Development - The introduction of express delivery services has enabled villagers to sell gardenia flowers nationwide, with orders coming from cities like Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Fuzhou [10]. - A Sichuan company has started purchasing "leftover" flowers for essential oil and perfume production, allowing villagers to monetize flowers that would otherwise go unsold [10]. - The village is exploring the establishment of a public brand for gardenias to enhance product recognition and market competitiveness [13]. Group 3: Community and Tourism - The village has attracted tourists, enhancing local engagement and promoting the sale of unique agricultural products [11]. - An ecological farming model combining flowers, rice, and shrimp has been developed, which has been well-received by visitors [11]. - Young villagers are returning to start businesses, leveraging social media platforms to promote local products [12]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Plans are underway to diversify product offerings, including dried flowers, scented sachets, and gardenia tea, to increase added value [13]. - The village aims to register trademarks for "Dongmenzai Gardenia" to boost market presence and competitiveness [13].