12月21日—22日，第四届现代农业发展论坛在湖北宜昌召开。论坛期间，中国化工报社农化产业智库正式揭牌成 立，中国石油和化学工业联合会党委书记、会长李云鹏；中国石油和化学工业联合会监事长，《中国化工报》社 有限公司原党委书记、董事长崔学军共同为智库揭牌。 据悉，《中国化工报》社在智库建设领域早有布局：2014年4月，与北京化工大学携手成立中国化工产业发展研究 院；2019年1月，专门设立中国化工报社产业发展中心，组建专业团队深耕高端智库建设，聚焦全局性、区域性、 专业性、紧迫性行业问题开展专项调研。此次成立的农化产业智库，以推动农化产业高质量发展为核心，以建设 农业强国为使命，以链接政产学研媒全链条资源为路径，致力于打造兼具前瞻性、建设性与开放性的农化产业智 慧策源地，推动农业科技创新与产业创新深度融合，助力培育世界级农化领军企业，成为驱动新质生产力转化的 核心枢纽。 未来，农化产业智库将坚守平台运作、问题导向、价值共创三大原则，构建全方位服务体系：面向政府提供产业 政策研究、专题内参、规划建议等资政服务，争做值得信赖的智慧参谋；面向企业提供发展战略分析、技术路径 研究、市场调查、转型方案等咨询服务，争做可靠 ...

消息面来看，据人民财讯，12月18日，五粮液召开"第二十九届12·18共识共建共享"大会，五粮液集团 (股份)公司党委书记、董事长曾从钦表示，五粮液将着力构建主品牌"一核两擎两驱一新"的产品体系 昨日（12月18日），A股三大指数涨跌不一。 热门ETF中，据Wind数据，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）昨日（12月18日）获净申购达200万份，居深 市同类第一。此外，农业ETF天弘（512620）截至12月17日，已连续4日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"近 5000万元。 食品饮料ETF天弘（159736，场外C类001632）跟踪中证食品饮料指数，仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙 头股，兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头，前十权重股包括"茅五泸汾洋"、伊利、海天等。 农业ETF天弘（512620）紧密跟踪中证农业指数，覆盖养殖、农化等领域，成分股汇聚牧原股份、温氏 股份、海大集团等农业龙头企业，实现多元化布局，还配置了场外联接基金（A类010769，C类 010770）。 此外，据央视新闻，记者从中国科学院青藏高原研究所获悉，该所古生态与人类适应团队联合全球数十 家科研机构，破解了大麦种子休眠的关键机制，为应对 ...

Market Performance - The basic chemical index decreased by 2.19% from December 6 to December 12, while the CSI 300 index fell by only 0.08%, indicating that the basic chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 by 2.12 percentage points, ranking 26th among all sectors [1][2] - The top-performing sub-industries included rubber additives (4.50%), adhesives and tapes (2.95%), non-metallic materials III (1.04%), synthetic resins (0.68%), and other rubber products (0.37%) [1][2] Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrogen peroxide (14.67%), R125 (13.33%), hydrochloric acid (Shandong) (12.50%), domestic vitamin E (8.33%), and raw salt (5.77%) [3] - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines were liquid chlorine (-33.33%), NYMEX natural gas (-22.31%), R22 (-13.89%), hydrochloric acid (Jiangsu) (-12.50%), and R134a (-8.33%) [3] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the issuance of production, use, and import quotas for ozone-depleting substances and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for 2026, with a total production quota of 797,800 tons, a slight increase of 5,963 tons from 2025 [4] - The production quotas for R134a, R245fa, R32, and R125 will increase by 3,272, 2,918, 1,171, and 351 tons respectively, while R143 and R227ea will see reductions of 1,255 and 517 tons [4] - The high demand for third-generation refrigerants is expected to continue, with prices remaining elevated; as of December 12, the market prices for R32, R125, and R134a in East China were 63,300, 45,000, and 57,500 yuan per ton, respectively [4] - The production of air conditioners and automobiles in China showed growth, with cumulative production from January to October 2025 reaching 230 million units and 27.325 million vehicles, representing year-on-year increases of 3% and 11% respectively [4] Price Adjustments in the Industry - Several leading companies in the light stabilizer sector have announced price increases of approximately 10% to address long-standing issues of irrational price competition [5] - The price adjustments were initiated by major players such as Lianlong and followed by others like Suqian Liansheng and Tiangang Additives [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the refrigerant sector, as the supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with price levels likely to rise; recommended companies include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [6] - Attention is also suggested for the chemical fiber sector, with recommended companies being Huafeng Chemical, Xin Fengming, and Taihe New Materials [6] - Other quality targets include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - The tire sector is highlighted with recommendations for Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [6] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, recommended companies include Yara International, Salt Lake Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, and Yangnong Chemical [6] - Quality growth targets include Blue Sky Technology, Shengquan Group, and Shandong Heda [6] Industry Rating - The basic chemical industry maintains an "overweight" rating [7]

截至2025年12月10日 10:04，食品饮料ETF天弘(159736)成交2700.65万元。跟踪的中证食品饮料指数(930653)上涨0.42%，成分股 欢乐家(300997)上涨12.83%，新诺威(300765)上涨9.28%，会稽山(601579)上涨3.91%，燕京啤酒(000729)上涨3.07%，珠江啤酒 (002461)上涨2.28%。 拉长时间看，截至12月9日，食品饮料ETF天弘(159736)最新资金净流入1520.08万元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内，合计"吸 金"1378.41万元。 一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产，相关产品食品饮料ETF天弘(159736)。据统计，其跟踪指数约6成仓位布局高端、次高端白酒龙 头股，近4成仓位兼顾饮料乳品、调味、啤酒等细分板块龙头，前十权重股包括"茅五泸汾洋"、伊利、海天等。 农业ETF天弘(512620)跟踪中证农业指数，精选50只标的，覆盖养殖（41.9%）、农化（17.7%）等领域，汇聚牧原、海大等龙 头，多元布局分散周期风险。 【相关产品】 食品饮料ETF天弘(159736)，对应场外联接基金（A：001631；C：001632）。 农业E ...

Market Performance - The market opened high and continued to rise, with the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by over 1% and the ChiNext Index rising by over 2% [1] ETF Highlights - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) had a total trading volume of 11.99 million yuan, with a closing premium rate of 0.13% [1] - Over the past 60 trading days, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has attracted over 430 million yuan in capital [1] - The Tianhong Agriculture ETF (512620) tracking the CSI Agriculture Theme Index rose by 0.18%, marking two consecutive days of gains [1] ETF Composition - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in high-end and mid-range liquor, as well as key players in beverages, dairy, condiments, and beer [1] - Major holdings include "Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe, Yili, and Haitian" [1] - The Tianhong Agriculture ETF closely follows the CSI Agriculture Theme Index, covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, with key stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [1] Shareholder Return Activities - Since 2025, over 30 A-share companies, including Emei Shan A, Qianwei Yangchun, and Jiahe Foods, have announced voluntary shareholder return activities, a nearly 90% increase compared to 18 companies in 2024 [2] - The main sectors initiating these activities are food and beverage, and tourism services, which directly target individual consumers [2] Market Trends in Traditional Chinese Medicine - Prices for certain traditional Chinese medicinal materials like Angelica and Codonopsis have decreased, while others such as Ophiopogon, Rhizoma Polygonati, and Rose have remained stable [2] - The market for "food and medicine homology" is expected to reach 370 billion yuan this year, with significant growth in related health products and functional foods [2] Agricultural Sector Developments - On December 5, Muyuan Foods announced that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has reviewed its application for issuance and listing, but this does not constitute formal approval [2] - Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at historical lows, with signs of relative returns as market styles shift [2] - It is advised to focus on opportunities for recovery and valuation repair after fundamental pressures ease, as well as innovations in categories, channels, and consumption scenarios [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a layout period at the end of the year, with a high overall weighted operating rate and low price differentials indicating potential for a reversal [14] - The tire industry has shown signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to return to high growth by 2026 due to easing tariffs and recovering raw material costs [15] - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026)" is anticipated to accelerate industry transformation and upgrading [16] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The industry comprises 494 listed companies with a total market value of 54,965.58 billion and a circulating market value of 48,900.97 billion [2] Price and Performance - The report indicates a 2.0% absolute performance increase over one month, 28.6% over six months, and 25.6% over twelve months [3] - Key price increases this week include Henry natural gas (+18.5%), ethane (+10.4%), and octanol (+7.8%) [13] Sector Tracking - The tire sector is highlighted for its recovery, with nine out of eleven listed companies reporting profit growth in Q3 [15] - The agricultural chemical sector is noted for recent price increases in small pesticide varieties and the essential nature of fertilizers [7] - The phosphorous chemical sector is under observation for changes in industry dynamics due to favorable policies [7] Investment Strategies - Suggested investment routes include early-stage recovery stocks, scarce resource leaders, high-growth potential companies, and sectors with favorable supply-demand structures [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the fluorine, silicon, and phosphorus sectors for their valuation elasticity and potential for new cycle star products [17][18] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated discussions on PTA industry development to prevent excessive competition and promote stable operations [16] - The report notes that the petrochemical sector is expected to undergo significant changes due to new policies aimed at optimizing supply and enhancing technological innovation [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for diversified companies and specific sectors such as aerospace, defense technology, and data centers, indicating strong growth potential for 2026 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - Diversified companies are optimistic about 2026, with Endvent expecting significant order fulfillment and Mirion anticipating a record order quarter of $175 million [1][4]. - The aerospace sector shows robust fundamentals, with demand for new aircraft models exceeding supply, and strong pricing power observed [5]. - Defense technology companies like AeroVironment and Andro are highlighted for their growth potential, with Andro projecting revenues of approximately $5 billion in 2026 [6]. - The data center and AI sectors are expected to see substantial capital expenditure growth, with predictions of 79% and 36% increases in 2025 and 2026, respectively [7]. Summary by Sections Diversified Companies - 18 diversified companies participated in the conference, with 13 expressing optimism for 2026, despite challenges in the chemicals sector [3]. - LyondellBasell Industries has seen a downgrade in performance expectations, with most basic industry companies anticipating a 1% to 5% decline in EBITDA [3][11]. Aerospace and Defense - The aerospace industry is experiencing strong demand, with a notable performance from Embraer in the business jet market [5]. - Defense technology firms are focusing on growth opportunities, with AeroVironment identifying 12 potential billion-dollar projects [6]. Data Centers and AI - The report indicates a strong outlook for data centers, with significant capital investments anticipated [7]. - Companies like Flex are investing in capacity to meet the growing demand driven by AI applications [8]. Industrial Technology - Belden's core industrial business is showing positive trends, with a recovery in discrete manufacturing and growth in Europe and China [9][10]. - The waste management sector is facing challenges but shows signs of optimism regarding pricing, particularly in landfill operations [18][19]. Transportation - The transportation sector is recovering, with signs of stabilization in truck transportation and improved pricing discipline [12]. Public Infrastructure - There is a positive sentiment regarding public construction spending, with expectations for continued growth in related projects [21].

中共二十届四中全会提出加快农业农村现代化，扎实推进乡村全面振兴。"这彰显了中国对农业发展和 科技创新的高度重视，进一步增强了拜耳作物科学深耕中国市场的信心。"胡梦影表示，期待不断加强 与本土企业合作，让更多创新成果扎根中国土壤，结出合作共赢的丰硕果实。 （本报记者姜波参与采写） 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年12月08日 03 版） (责编：赵欣悦、袁勃) "中国市场拥有丰富的应用场景、日益完善的创新环境和强大生产能力与供应链支撑。"拜耳作物科学大 中华区总经理胡梦影日前在接受本报记者采访时表示，"中国是拜耳作物科学全球关键市场之一。" 拜耳作物科学是德国拜耳集团旗下企业，进入中国市场已有60多年。"中国市场激励我们不断创新前 行。"胡梦影表示，中国加快生物育种产业化进程，植保创新持续突破，数字化技术与农业深度融合。 中国农业对高效、绿色的作物保护产品需求与日俱增，消费者对农产品品质、安全、多样性等要求持续 提高。这些都为拜耳作物科学继续深耕中国市场提供广阔空间。 拜耳集团连续参加8届进博会，在今年的进博会上带来了26款亮点创新展品，达成超10项战略签约。其 中，拜耳作物科学发布了7个"中国首展"、8个"进博 ...

天才少年用AI日筛十亿分子！奥特曼恩师支招：不买模型卖授权。 为了吃到蔬菜水果，人类在土地上倾倒了越来越多的农药：三十年间用量翻了一倍，却仍有40%的作物每年死于病虫害。 问题不在农民，而是害虫演化得太快，抗药性越来越强，远超农药研发的速度，导致农药效果越来越差。 但我们不能输给进化这场赛跑。 监管机构也在给农药制造商越来越大的监管压力，但大多数农化公司仍然依赖调整传统化合物。 两位刚成年的创始人给出了一个截然不同的答案——把农药研发，当成「精准靶向治虫」。 通过AI模型先在海量蛋白质中锁定只存在于害虫体内的「独特靶点」，再用类似AlphaFold的结构预测与配体筛选技术，为这些靶点设计专属「药」，让 杀虫剂第一次有机会做到：只杀害虫，不误伤人类与有益生物。 为植物找药，为全球省粮 一个事实令人吃惊，但鲜为人知：为了达到2000年时相同的农作效果，如今全球农药使用量竟然翻了一倍。 具体来说，目前大多数杀虫剂的开发方式并非基于特定的靶点，而是昆虫学家和化学家提出不同的化合物，然后在昆虫上进行测试。为了检查其有效性， 通常需要合成和测试数千种化学物质，成本很高。 而两位创业者坚信「苦涩的教训」——即「利用计算资源 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the gradual recovery of the chemical industry, with profit declines slowing down and demand gradually rebounding, particularly in sub-sectors like agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [22][23] - The AI application in various industries is accelerating, with significant advancements in hardware and software, leading to a reshaping of the global landscape [24][25] - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with rising costs impacting profit margins, yet there are emerging opportunities in niche markets like snacks and soft drinks [27][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market is showing signs of stabilization, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index trading at average P/E ratios above their three-year median, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][13][15] - The coal and non-ferrous metals sectors are leading the market, while sectors like internet services and software development are underperforming [9][13] Industry Analysis - The electric power and public utilities sector is rated "stronger than the market," with a focus on stable returns and shareholder value, particularly in large hydropower companies and high-dividend coal enterprises [20] - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with overcapacity and price stability, but there is potential for recovery as the market undergoes structural adjustments [30][33] Investment Strategies - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on high-dividend assets like banks and utilities for defensive positioning, while also considering growth opportunities in technology and AI sectors [12][24] - Specific recommendations include monitoring companies in the chemical sector that are well-positioned to benefit from supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes [22][23]