Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated reduction of pig production capacity and highlights investment opportunities in raw milk and beef cattle sectors [2][15]. Livestock Farming - As of December 12, the average price for lean pigs in China is 11.03 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 33.2% year-on-year. The industry continues to face significant supply pressure and losses due to short-term demand stagnation and regional epidemics [7][15]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to September. The winter season is noted as a high-risk period for pig diseases, which may further impact production capacity [15]. - Recommended leading companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group are also suggested for consideration [15]. - For broiler chickens, the average price for live chickens and chicks is 3.65 CNY/jin and 3.54 CNY/chick, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [15]. Dairy Sector - The current price for fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity due to long-term losses and financial pressures [16]. - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand as previous capacity reductions take effect, with a positive outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2026-2027 [16]. - Recommended companies in the dairy sector include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [16]. Feed and Animal Health - The report notes a mixed performance in aquatic product prices, with a significant rebound in white shrimp prices due to previous disease outbreaks and delayed stocking [17]. - The aquaculture industry is expected to improve in 2025 compared to 2023-2024, although profitability is projected to remain lower than pre-2023 levels, necessitating upgrades in feed formulations and farming techniques [17]. - Leading feed companies are expected to enhance their market share domestically and expand internationally, leveraging their cost advantages [17]. - Key companies to watch in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological, Pulaike, Ruipu Biological, and Biological Shares, as they expand into pet healthcare [17]. Crop Sector - The domestic corn spot price is 2357 CNY/ton, remaining stable, while soybean meal prices have increased by 1.5% to 3159 CNY/ton [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions in South America and trade factors affecting soybean prices [18]. - Companies to focus on in the seed industry include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [18]. Pet Food Industry - The global production layout of pet food companies is maturing, with limited impact from trade frictions on overseas operations. The domestic market shows high growth potential, driven by functional and health-oriented products [20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares showing strong brand performance [20]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands [20].

25年原奶价格继续磨底，行业亏损推动奶牛存栏量持续去化。随着前期去产能效应显现，原奶供需逐步 趋于平衡，下游乳企喷粉量同环比明显下滑，25年下半年散奶价格企稳反弹，行业逐步进入去大包粉库 存阶段。该行判断原奶供给拐点、散奶价格拐点已现，继续看好2026-27年原奶周期上行。同时，肉牛 供给已经步入收缩通道，预计26年牛肉价格继续周期回升，亦能增加业绩弹性，建议重点关注优然牧 业、现代牧业等。 饲料 把握龙头第二增长极。水产料方面，预计26年水产养殖量稳定运行，养殖利润较前期收窄背景下，技术 升级和结构调整趋势将延续;26年预计畜禽料需求高位回落。海外饲料行业结构性变化为我国饲料企业 出海提供机会，国内龙头凭借配方成本和效率优势在海外享受高盈利水平，支撑海外饲料业务扩张保持 快速增长，开启成长新阶段。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，当前肥猪、仔猪销售均已陷入亏损状态，行业已经具备亏损 去产能的前期条件。随着养殖持续亏损，叠加"反内卷"政策背景，预计行业产能去化有望加速，生猪养 殖板块迎来左侧布局窗口期，同时关注冬季疫病对于产能影响。展望2026年，该行判断26年中期猪价有 望迎来向上拐点。随着行业竞争 ...

Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is currently facing losses for both fat and piglet sales, indicating conditions for capacity reduction. The industry is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, presenting a left-side layout opportunity for the pig farming sector. A price turning point is anticipated in mid-2026 [16][20][34] - Major pig farming companies recommended include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with attention to Dekang Agriculture and New Hope. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller farming enterprises to watch include Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [16][34] Pig Industry Analysis - In 2025, the pig price fell below the cost line, leading to overall industry losses. By November, the average loss per self-breeding pig was 122 CNY per head, with an estimated annual profit of 30-80 CNY per head [20][23] - The industry is experiencing a significant reduction in breeding sow inventory, with a decrease to 39.9 million heads by October 2025, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [28][36] Dairy Industry Analysis - The raw milk price continued to decline in 2025, leading to a reduction in dairy cow inventory. As the supply-demand balance improves, raw milk prices are expected to rise in 2026-2027 [16][18] - The beef supply is also entering a contraction phase, with expectations for beef prices to rise in 2026, enhancing the performance elasticity of livestock companies [16][18] Feed Industry Analysis - The feed sector is expected to see stable water aquaculture production in 2026, while demand for livestock feed is projected to decline due to reduced breeding capacity. Domestic feed leaders are positioned to benefit from overseas expansion opportunities [17][18] - The global feed industry is undergoing structural changes, providing opportunities for Chinese feed companies to expand internationally [17] Animal Health Industry Analysis - The animal health sector faces intensified competition, with traditional vaccine product margins declining. Companies are shifting towards multi-business models, including pet health products, to open new growth avenues [17][18] Pet Food Industry Analysis - The pet food market is showing signs of consolidation, with leading companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. performing well. The long-term growth logic for the industry remains strong, supported by the rise of domestic brands [17][18] - Companies are also expanding their global production capabilities to mitigate trade friction impacts [17] Crop Industry Analysis - Corn prices are expected to rebound in 2025, with a potential strong performance in 2026. The seed industry is currently in a phase of inventory reduction, with opportunities arising from transgenic innovations and industry consolidation [18][19]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in the livestock and pet industries, while highlighting ongoing challenges in pig farming due to supply pressures and price adjustments [2][5][9]. Livestock Industry Overview - Pig farming is experiencing downward price adjustments due to increased supply from smallholders and insufficient demand for cured products, leading to a supply-demand struggle [9][18]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.38% in November, indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [21][9]. - As of December 4, the average price for market pigs was 11.30 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.57% [32][33]. - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 167.69 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 259.39 CNY per head for purchased piglets reported [39][42]. Poultry Industry Insights - The poultry sector is seeing a rise in white chicken prices, with an average price of 7.27 CNY/kg as of December 5, up 1.11% week-on-week [40][44]. - The ongoing outbreaks of avian influenza in overseas markets are expected to benefit the white feather chicken industry in the medium to long term [40][41]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health industry is under pressure due to a decline in demand linked to the overall losses in pig farming, with significant year-on-year decreases in vaccine approvals [50]. - However, the development of new vaccines, including progress in African swine fever vaccine trials, may provide a boost to the sector [50]. Seed Industry Trends - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybean have shown slight increases, with wheat prices at 2515 CNY/ton, corn at 2357 CNY/ton, and soybean meal at 3111 CNY/ton as of December 5 [53][55]. - The USDA's November report indicates a decrease in global corn and soybean stocks, which may impact future pricing and availability [54][57]. Pet Industry Developments - The pet food export market faced a decline, with October exports amounting to 772 million CNY, down 15.9% year-on-year [58][60]. - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with e-commerce sales in October increasing by 19% year-on-year, driven by strong performances from local brands [61][62]. - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw significant sales growth for domestic pet brands, indicating a shift towards local products in the market [62].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 2025年12月08日 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月投资策略 优于大市 牧业大周期反转预计在即，核心推荐港股奶牛养殖标的 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头），现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：11 月末生猪 11.25 元/公斤，月环比-10%，7kg 仔猪价格约 216 元/头，月环比+18%。2）禽：11 月末白鸡毛鸡价格 7.10 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]

Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual recovery in various industries, with a focus on investment opportunities arising from supply and demand dynamics [6][14][16] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in technology and applications, particularly in China [16][17] - The chemical industry is expected to see a marginal recovery in profitability due to improved demand and reduced investment pressures [13][14] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,914.01, reflecting a 0.65% increase [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.95 and 48.16, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][9] International Market Performance - Major international indices, such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67% [4] Industry Strategies - The chemical industry is entering a phase of improved stability, with a focus on supply-side constraints and demand recovery, particularly in agricultural chemicals and fluorochemicals [13][14] - The AI industry is projected to benefit from increased domestic demand and government support, with a focus on integrated circuits and software [16][17] - The food and beverage sector is facing challenges with declining revenue growth, but opportunities exist in the snack and beverage markets, which are expected to grow significantly [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, as well as opportunities in the AI and semiconductor industries [15][16] - In the food and beverage sector, companies like Baoli Food and Dongpeng Beverage are recommended due to their growth potential in the snack and soft drink markets [21] Key Data Updates - The semiconductor industry continues to show strong growth, with global sales reaching $69.47 billion, a 25.1% year-on-year increase [36] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a focus on capacity reduction and optimization of the competitive landscape [25][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of production capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][32] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a significant reduction in breeding sows, with the number decreasing to 39.9 million heads by the end of October 2025, a month-on-month decline of 1.1% and a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [9] - October saw a substantial increase in pig slaughtering, with 38.34 million pigs processed, representing a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [9] - The average price for market pigs dropped to 12.27 yuan/kg in October, down 11% month-on-month and 32.4% year-on-year, indicating a challenging profitability environment for the industry [9][40] Feed Sector - The report indicates that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices averaging 2329.8 yuan/ton, up 2.17% week-on-week, and soybean meal prices at 3107.43 yuan/ton, up 1.04% week-on-week [21][40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with grain prices on an upward trend, highlighting significant investment opportunities in large-scale planting [3][32] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous market expansion, presenting investment opportunities in leading companies [3][32]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is currently undervalued with lower-than-historical price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the future [1] Market Performance - From the beginning of 2025 to November 25, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index achieved an absolute return of +24.66%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.47 percentage points [2] - The wood processing sector showed the highest growth, while the aquatic processing sector lagged behind; in the first three quarters of 2025, net profits for the aquatic catch, animal health, and planting sectors increased by over 50% year-on-year [2] Industry Outlook 1. **Pig Farming**: The number of breeding sows is expected to decline in the second half of 2025, which may lead to a stabilization and recovery of pig prices by mid-2026 due to supply contraction amid stable demand. The pig farming sector remains undervalued historically, and leading companies are expected to benefit first as costs continue to optimize [3] 2. **Animal Health**: Short-term high production levels in poultry and livestock are driving demand for animal health products. As the industry enters an upward cycle, performance in the animal health sector is expected to be supported. The market for animal health products will expand with the introduction of non-epidemic vaccines, and long-term growth will be driven by the scaling up of the downstream poultry and livestock sectors [3] 3. **Seed Industry**: Recent regulatory developments and clearer policies for commercializing biological breeding indicate significant investment value in the seed sector, which is currently undervalued. 2024 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for biological breeding in China, with companies that have passed initial variety reviews likely to benefit from increased industry concentration and profitability [3] 4. **Pet Food**: The pet food industry in China is expected to grow significantly due to demographic changes and rising living standards. The market is witnessing a shift towards online sales and increased domestic product substitution, suggesting substantial growth potential for related listed companies [4] Investment Strategy - Recommended stocks for investment include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Puli Co., Ltd. (603566.SH), Qiule Seed Industry (920087.BJ), Guibao Pet (301498.SZ), Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ), and Petty Co., Ltd. (300673.SZ) [4]