Group 1 - Developed markets are expected to outperform emerging markets following a dovish signal from the Federal Reserve, with historical data indicating greater upward elasticity in developed markets during the first 1-3 months after such signals [2][3][4] - The S&P 500 has historically shown an average increase of 1.3% in the month following dovish meetings, with a larger average increase of 5.5% over three months [2][5] - Large-cap stocks are generally favored over small-cap stocks in the aftermath of preventive rate cuts, although small-cap stocks may show significant improvement if economic indicators point to recovery [3][4] Group 2 - Growth sectors such as information technology and healthcare, along with cyclical sectors like financials, are expected to perform better due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes [3][4] - The U.S. dollar may not necessarily decline following rate cuts, as historical trends show a slight average increase in the dollar one month and three months after dovish meetings [3][4][5] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline more significantly than long-term yields, which may be constrained by factors such as fiscal deficits and credit conditions [4][5] Group 3 - In the Chinese market, the impact of rate cuts is seen as a supplementary factor, with the primary influence being the economic fundamentals [4][5] - A-shares are anticipated to favor growth sectors over value sectors, particularly in interest-sensitive industries like pharmaceuticals and electronics, which tend to perform better in the six months following rate cuts [6][7] - Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the information technology sector, are expected to show superior performance both in the short and long term following rate cuts [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Huashang Innovation Medical Mixed A (017418) reported a profit of 5.2361 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.1359 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 17.87% during the reporting period [2] Group 1: Fund Performance - As of September 3, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 1.121 yuan, with a recent three-month net value growth rate of 25.16%, ranking 65 out of 138 in its category [5] - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 27.59%, ranking 103 out of 138, while the one-year growth rate was 50.85%, ranking 85 out of 136 [5] - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception was 29.03%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 16.93% [26] Group 2: Fund Holdings and Valuation - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 16.88 times, significantly lower than the category average of 120.96 times [9] - The weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 1.09 times, compared to the category average of 4.07 times, and the weighted average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was approximately 0.99 times, against a category average of 6.52 times [9] - The fund's stock holdings showed a weighted revenue growth rate of 0.04% and a weighted net profit growth rate of 0.19% for the first half of 2025 [14] Group 3: Fund Management and Strategy - The fund manager, Peng Xinyang, oversees three funds, all of which have achieved positive returns over the past year, with the highest being Huashang Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund at 66.97% [2] - The fund management anticipates that the global collaboration trend in innovative drugs will continue, benefiting the CXO industry from sustained R&D investments [2] - The report highlights the potential for innovative medical devices and the commercialization of medical AI to become new leading themes in the pharmaceutical industry [2] Group 4: Fund Structure and Investor Composition - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a total of 369 holders, with a total of 37.1517 million shares held [33] - Institutional investors held 53.83% of the shares, while individual investors accounted for 46.17% [33] - The fund's average stock position since inception was 79.64%, with a peak of 90.68% in the first half of 2024 [29]

来源：滚动播报 美国非农就业增长可能仍集中在医疗保健和社会救助部门。但周三公布的政府数据显示，7月制造业职 位空缺连续第二个月下降，警示信号正在闪现。3200名波音工人的罢工可能会削弱已经受到关税压力的 制造业就业人数。由于白宫削减开支，预计会有更多的联邦政府工作岗位流失。花旗集团经济学家维罗 妮卡•克拉克表示："我们看到更多证据表明，8月份劳动力需求将进一步走弱。今年裁员的风险被市场 和美联储官员低估了。" ...

香港"亚洲电视新闻"网称，此举显示日本正持续摆脱长期以来的和平主义立场，寻求强化"反击"能力， 并加快军备扩张。防卫大臣中谷在8月底的防卫省高层会议上表示："我国的安全保障环境面对着战后最 严峻、最复杂的局面。为了在关键时刻守护国民生命，必须快速切实地推进，进一步强化防卫能力和威 慑力。" 每年夏季，日本各省厅会就下一财年预算计划提出初始申请，日本财务省将对这些申请进行审核，在今 年年底前确定2026 财年政府预算草案，随后提交国会审议。此外，由于部分预算项目未明确金额，且 部分媒体称，日本首相石破茂计划要求内阁制定由补充预算资助的经济刺激方案，最终预算规模可能进 一步扩大。 路透社称，投资者普遍关注，石破茂脆弱的政治地位可能影响日本政府对财政支出的掌控力。市场对政 府支出扩张的担忧，叠加全球长期债券收益率攀升，推动日本30年期国债收益率本周创下历史新高。报 道另外指出，日本目前的债务规模达其经济总量的两倍，在世界发达经济体中位居前列。 责任编辑：梁斌 SF055 来源：环球 【环球时报驻日本特约记者 潘小多】日本财务省9月3日宣布，受物价上涨因素的影响，以及国防支出 扩张和债务融资成本上升的双重推动，日本各 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming employment report is expected to show the weakest job growth in the U.S. since the pandemic, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1][5] - Economists predict a non-farm payroll increase of only 75,000 jobs in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of job growth below 100,000 [1][4] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Recent months have seen a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth due to companies facing demand concerns, rising costs, and economic uncertainty stemming from trade policies [2][3] - The labor market is described as being in a "frozen" state, with businesses pausing hiring decisions until the economic situation becomes clearer [3] - Job growth in August is expected to be concentrated in a few sectors, particularly healthcare, leisure, and hospitality [3] Group 3 - The July employment report indicated a downward revision of job growth, altering perceptions of the labor market among economists and policymakers [4] - There are concerns about the integrity of U.S. employment data following significant revisions, which may suggest a more prolonged weakness in the labor market [4] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is under increasing pressure to act as labor market conditions weaken, with Chairman Powell expressing openness to interest rate cuts [5][6] - Other indicators, such as a drop in job vacancies and an increase in unemployment claims, further complicate the outlook for the labor market [5] - Market expectations are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, although future actions remain uncertain [5] Group 5 - The dual mandate of achieving full employment and stable prices is creating a challenging environment for policymakers, with potential disagreements among Federal Open Market Committee members [6] - The labor market is expected to be a key factor in interest rate decisions in the coming months, with a potential for rapid changes [6]

Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have alternated in performance, with Hong Kong stocks stabilizing in Q1 driven by the internet sector, followed by new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals in Q2, leading to a compression of the AH premium to approximately 120 by June 2025 [2] - In July and August, A-shares continued to perform strongly while Hong Kong stocks faced pressure from tightening liquidity and competition in the platform economy [2] Funding Environment - The liquidity situation is improving, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority passively injecting liquidity in April and May, leading to a temporary drop in HIBOR to near zero; however, by late June, excess liquidity was being withdrawn, and HIBOR rose rapidly to around 4% in August [3] - The Hong Kong dollar has moved away from the 7.85 weak-side guarantee, and the HIBOR-SOFR overnight interest rate spread has returned to a normal range of about 0.36%, indicating that the most stringent phase of the funding environment is likely over [3] Fundamental Outlook - The consensus EPS forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was revised down from 6.7% in early July to 2.35% by the end of August, primarily due to lowered profit expectations in the platform economy and increased competition in food delivery [4] - However, earnings expectations for sectors such as materials and healthcare within the Hong Kong Stock Connect have been significantly upgraded, and regulatory constraints on unfair competition are expected to reduce price wars in instant retail [4] - With the release of mid-year reports and a shift in outlook for Q4 towards "AI empowerment and efficiency recovery," the internet sector is anticipated to see a rebound in expectations [4] Long-term Framework - The long-term bullish logic for A/H shares is supported by policies and wealth migration, emphasizing a balance between an effective market and proactive government intervention [5] - The dynamic balance aims to stabilize the market while enhancing capital market functions through measures such as mergers and acquisitions, registration system deepening, and attracting long-term capital [5] Structural Changes in Funding - There is a noticeable acceleration in the entry of long-term funds such as social security, insurance, and wealth management into the market, with a clear trend of increased allocation to ETFs and institutional investments [7] - The decline in deposit and wealth management yields has created an "asset shortage" environment, suggesting that both residents and institutions have room to increase their equity allocation [7] Industry and Sector Trends - Emerging sectors such as AI computing chains, semiconductor equipment and materials, military technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robots are advancing from technology to commercialization [8] - This trend is beneficial for platform-based internet companies in AI commercialization as well as for hard technology and its upstream supply [8] External Variables and Capital Inflow - Historically, there is a strong negative correlation between the US dollar index and the Hang Seng Index; if the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle in September and the dollar weakens in Q4, the previously high short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks may trigger a short-covering rally [9] - The potential for overseas capital to flow back into A/H shares is expected to increase [9] September Outlook - The market may experience fluctuations due to external interest rates and internal expectations, but the tightest phase of the funding environment has passed, and the fundamental narrative of "AI empowerment" is set to unfold [10] - Valuations and risk premiums remain attractive, suggesting that in a "fluctuating-upward" rhythm, sectors such as technology internet (AI), innovative pharmaceuticals, high-dividend stocks, and cyclical leaders with "anti-involution" characteristics are more cost-effective main lines [10] Strategy and Allocation - The strategy focuses on capturing rebound opportunities and the main line of "qualitative change," with a shift from "price wars" to "AI efficiency" in the internet/technology sector [10] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is viewed positively, with September being a key window for positioning [10] - In the new consumption sector, performance is prioritized, emphasizing differentiation [10] - High-dividend and "anti-involution" sectors are also highlighted, with a focus on selecting companies with stable cash flow and sustainable dividends [10] Valuation Insights - The forecasted PE for the Hang Seng Technology Index is approximately 20.3 times, which is around 30% lower than levels seen since July 2020 [11] - The Hang Seng Index's TTM PE is about 12.3 times, significantly lower than that of the S&P 500, Nikkei, and European stocks [11] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to 10-year government bonds is about 6.4%, making it attractive to global capital [11] Core Logic - Following the mid-year reports, the impact of "involution" is weakening, and the narrative for Q4 is shifting towards "AI empowerment," with a focus on commercialization and efficiency [12] - The direction includes AI applications, advertising efficiency improvements, and collaboration in cloud and computing services [12] - The strategy emphasizes holding quality leaders with strong execution capabilities during the concentrated period of academic and medical insurance directory catalysts in Q3 and Q4 [12]

报告指，当前财报季，中国企业业绩表现参差不齐。消费周期性行业增长疲软，利润率未达预期。然 而，通讯服务行业因AI应用表现突出，增长或成本驱动的利润扩张超出预期。对于寻求AI投资机会的 投资者而言，理解何时及如何在不同行业分配资金至关重要，特别是这些行业因AI而受益的步伐不 一。晨星报告特别点名了一些因可行成本削减措施而值得关注的被低估公司，重点如下： 哪些行业受益最多？ 消费周期性及防御性行业：这些行业仍被低估，或将实现超出预期的盈利改善。关注公司：百威 (Budweiser)、花王(Kao)、携程(09961)等。 晨星最新报告指出，人工智能正从炒作转向实现实质成本节约，这对投资者具有重大影响。在最新报告 《亚洲市场：AI降低长期运营成本》中，该公司提到，AI的采用预计将结构性降低多个行业的长期运 营成本，提升盈利能力，并为被低估的公司创造重新评估机会。 金融服务行业：AI自动化客服中心流程及贷款审批，将降低银行及保险公司的成本。关注公司：汇控 (00005)、三菱UFJ金融集团(MUFG)、星展银行(DBS)、东京海上日动(Toki Marine)等。 医疗保健行业：AI在临床试验及药物开发数据管理方面将 ...

9月4日，港股市场震荡，南向资金重塑港股逻辑？行情能否延续？听兴业证券全球首席张忆东为您剖析 港股投资逻辑>>视频直播 张忆东指出，2024年以来，港股和A股呈现出交相辉映的态势，共同提升了中国股市的吸引力。2025年 6月底到8月底，A股持续上涨，在全球股市中表现优异；而同期港股表现相对乏力，主要受自身资金面 趋紧、互联网补贴大战等因素影响。 从港股资金面来看，2025年6月底以来，香港流动性环境持续收紧，但目前有望改善。港币汇率已脱离 7.85弱方保证区间，金管局无需进一步回笼流动性。截至2025年8月28日，美元SOFR的利差和港币 HIBOR隔夜利率已降至0.36%，处于正常的历史区间范围，后续香港流动性进一步大幅紧缩的概率较 小。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 展望9月份港股行情，张忆东认为港股补涨动力已积蓄，震荡向上的慢牛行情有望继续展开。港股补涨 动力将来自恒生科技的重估以及全球资金的配置需求。一方面，从历史维度来看，截至8月29日，恒生 科技预测市盈率为20.3倍，处于2020年7月以来29.9%分位数，年内以互联网为代表的恒生科技指数权重 股有补涨 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,343, down 0.60% for the day, but up 26.34% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,683, down 0.78% for the day, with a year-to-date increase of 27.21% [1] - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,813, down 1.16% [5][6] Currency and Commodity Trends - The RMB index is at 96.570, showing a 0.90% increase over the last month but a 3.33% decrease over six months [2] - Brent crude oil is priced at $68.86 per barrel, with a slight increase of 0.15% over the last month [2] - Gold prices reached $3,540.73 per ounce, reflecting a 4.95% increase over the last month and a 22.40% increase over six months [2] Key News and Developments - BYD aims for overseas vehicle sales of 800,000 units this year, a significant increase from 417,000 units last year, representing a 92% rise [18][19] - The S&P PMI for Hong Kong rose to 50.7 in August, indicating the first improvement in the business environment in seven months [14] - OpenAI is reportedly increasing its stock issuance to $10.3 billion, raising its valuation to $500 billion [13] Company-Specific Insights - BYD's global sales of new energy vehicles reached approximately 2.86 million units in the first eight months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 23% [19] - The stock of Huya Capital is highly concentrated, with 19 shareholders holding about 13.98% of the issued share capital, leading to potential volatility [20] - China Mobile Hong Kong has acquired 70.7% of Hong Kong Broadband's shares, indicating a significant consolidation in the telecommunications sector [21][22]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has attracted significant attention from global investors, with net inflows from southbound funds reaching 100.573 billion HKD as of September 3, marking the highest annual level since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [1] - Since July 2023, southbound funds have recorded 27 consecutive months of net inflows, with nearly 60% of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks seeing an increase in shareholding [3] - According to a report by China Merchants Securities, the Hong Kong market is undergoing a destocking cycle, with upstream industries continuing to destock while midstream and downstream sectors have entered a restocking phase [3] Group 2 - The new economy sectors are entering a sustained restocking phase, while the old economy is still experiencing a double-digit contraction in supply [3] - By industry, information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare are in a "proactive restocking" phase with favorable supply-demand dynamics, while energy, utilities, and real estate are in a "proactive destocking" phase at the cycle bottom [3] - China Merchants Securities suggests that investors focusing on fundamentals should pay attention to investment opportunities in technology growth stocks, as companies in the new economy with strong growth potential and weak ties to the Chinese macroeconomy reported better mid-year results [3]