Core Insights - The article emphasizes a simplified decision-making framework for homebuyers in a volatile real estate market, encapsulated in the phrase "buy old, buy big, don't buy three" [1] Group 1: Risk Avoidance - "Don't buy three" serves as a warning against three high-risk property types, helping buyers avoid significant potential losses [1] - Properties with unclear ownership, such as small property rights and unregistered relocation housing, face legal and economic risks, including potential demolition [3] - High-risk investment properties include remote locations with inadequate facilities, old houses with high maintenance costs, and flawed units prone to issues like leaks and noise, which are more vulnerable to market fluctuations [5] Group 2: Embracing Certainty - "Buy old" suggests opting for existing or nearly new second-hand homes to avoid the risks associated with unfinished properties, ensuring immediate availability and reducing financial loss from developer failures [7] - The advantages of existing homes include clear visibility of surrounding amenities, which is crucial for families with children needing stable schooling options, as well as higher usable space in older communities compared to new developments [7] - Data indicates a significant increase in second-hand home transactions in the first half of 2024, particularly in first-tier cities, reflecting a growing demand for certainty among buyers [7] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - "Buy big" encourages selecting larger units within financial means, enhancing living comfort and long-term asset value [10] - Larger homes cater to evolving family structures, providing necessary space for children and elderly family members, thus reducing the need for frequent relocations [10] - From an investment perspective, larger units are typically scarcer and more resilient to market downturns, making them easier to sell in the second-hand market [10] Conclusion - The framework of "buy old, buy big, don't buy three" is not a universal truth but should be adapted to individual circumstances, with economic capacity and location value being critical factors in decision-making [12]

Core Insights - The recent auction of a property in the Wen Ding Yuan development highlights a significant decline in real estate prices, with a recent transaction at 39,000 RMB per square meter, reverting to levels seen in early 2016 [1][3][4] - The property, which had previously seen high demand due to its school district, has lost its appeal, leading to a drastic reduction in both price and transaction volume [2][7] Price Trends - The latest auction for a 153 square meter top-floor unit started at 5.85 million RMB, with a final sale price of 6.014 million RMB, translating to a unit price of 39,000 RMB [2][3] - The initial listing in November 2022 had a starting price of 7.0384 million RMB, equating to 46,000 RMB per square meter, but failed to attract any bidders [2][3] Transaction Volume - The monthly transaction volume for Wen Ding Yuan has decreased significantly, averaging around 5 units per month in 2023, compared to 8 units per month in 2022 [4][7] - The peak transaction months in 2022 saw 17 units sold, while 2023 has seen months with as few as 2 transactions [4][7] Historical Context - Wen Ding Yuan was launched in 2005 with an initial price of 7,900 RMB per square meter, benefiting from the introduction of a local school, which drove prices up to 128,000 RMB per square meter by 2021 [7] - The property has experienced a dramatic decline in perceived value due to changing educational policies and shifting buyer preferences, leading to a reduced competitive edge in the market [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The real - estate market shows a mixed performance in July 2025. Both second - hand and new home sales have different trends in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year changes, with significant variations among different city tiers [1][3]. 3. Summary by Content Second - hand Housing - **Overall Performance**: In the week of July 11 - 17, the second - hand housing transaction area in 15 cities increased by 2% month - on - month after two consecutive weeks of decline, but decreased by 3% year - on - year. From July 1 - 17, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 5%, slightly larger than the 3% decline in June [1]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First - tier cities' second - hand housing transaction area increased by 2% month - on - month but decreased by 9% year - on - year. Second - tier cities' transaction area increased by 11% month - on - month and 2% year - on - year. Third - tier cities' transaction area decreased by 17% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year [2]. New Housing - **Overall Performance**: In the week of July 11 - 17, the new housing transaction area in 38 cities decreased by 6% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of 20% from July 1 - 17, weaker than previous months [3]. - **City - tier Analysis**: First - tier cities' new housing transaction area decreased by 24% month - on - month and 23% year - on - year. Second - tier cities' transaction area decreased by 1% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year. Third - tier cities' transaction area increased by 14% month - on - month but decreased by 10% year - on - year [3][4]. Key City Observation - **First - tier Cities**: In the week of July 11 - 17, first - tier cities' second - hand housing transaction area increased by 2% month - on - month but decreased by 9% year - on - year; new housing transaction area decreased by 24% month - on - month and 23% year - on - year. There were significant differences among Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in terms of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [26]. - **Other Key Cities**: In Hangzhou, second - hand housing transaction area increased by 2% week - on - week, while new housing transaction area decreased by 44%. In Chengdu, second - hand housing transaction area increased by 5% week - on - week, and new housing transaction area decreased by 11% [28]. Housing Price Observation In the week of July 7 - 13, the second - hand housing listing prices in Shanghai increased by 0.46% month - on - month, while those in Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.29% and 0.77% respectively. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, the second - hand housing listing prices in all three cities decreased [55].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is at a critical juncture of "bottoming out" and "recovery," with a general decline in new home prices across first-tier cities, but a narrowing year-on-year decline, particularly noted in Shenzhen's resilience and adjustment pace [1][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, new home prices in first-tier cities showed a month-on-month decline, with Shenzhen experiencing the largest drop of 0.6%, marking the third consecutive month of decline [4]. - Year-on-year, Shenzhen's new home prices fell by 2.5%, which is less than the declines seen in other first-tier cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, which dropped by 4.1% and 5.1% respectively [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Shenzhen's price stability is attributed to structural differentiation in the new home market, where new regulatory products are impacting older projects, leading to price reductions in non-compliant projects while maintaining some price resilience in core areas due to strong demand [6]. - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is also experiencing rational adjustments, with stable price declines driven by pragmatic seller attitudes and increased supply from new home products [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, there are signs of potential stabilization in the market, with upcoming long-term policy measures aimed at revitalizing demand and supply, including increased housing loan quotas and subsidies [7]. - The market is expected to benefit from a series of supportive policies from local and central governments, which may alleviate current pricing pressures [7]. Group 4: Buyer Guidance - For first-time buyers, focusing on core area new products with strong anti-decline characteristics is recommended, especially as policy optimizations lower entry costs [8]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, as the market has moved past the "universal growth era," and should concentrate on areas with sustained population inflow and strong industrial support [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in housing prices and sales, driven by targeted policies implemented by local governments [1][2]. Policy Effectiveness - The macroeconomic policies aimed at regulating the real estate market have shown significant effects, with a reduction in the year-on-year decline of new residential sales prices across first, second, and third-tier cities [1]. - In June, the year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices for first, second, and third-tier cities narrowed by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1]. - The year-on-year decline in second-hand residential sales prices in second and third-tier cities also narrowed, with reductions of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [1]. Market Trends - The overall trend indicates a stabilization in the real estate market, with new housing sales area and value experiencing a narrowing decline, suggesting a potential bottoming out [2]. - In the first half of the year, the national new residential sales area decreased by 3.5%, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, while sales value fell by 5.5%, narrowing by 19.5 percentage points [2]. - The transaction volume in the real estate market has improved, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, which has seen an increase compared to the previous year [2]. Future Support Policies - It is anticipated that real estate support policies will be further intensified in the second half of the year, focusing on increasing the acquisition of affordable housing and expediting loan disbursements for key projects [3]. - There is an expectation for a potential reduction in mortgage rates in line with policy interest rate adjustments [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The article discusses the changes in residential sales prices across 70 major cities in China for June 2025, highlighting a continued decline in prices both month-on-month and year-on-year, although the rate of decline is slowing. Group 1: Month-on-Month Price Changes - In June 2025, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai increasing by 0.4% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.6% respectively [2]. - Second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month, with declines in Beijing (1.0%), Shanghai (0.7%), Guangzhou (0.7%), and Shenzhen (0.5%) [2]. Group 2: Year-on-Year Price Changes - Year-on-year, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities dropped by 1.4%, a reduction in the decline rate by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Shanghai experienced a 6.0% increase, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 4.1%, 5.1%, and 2.5% respectively [3]. - Second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, with the decline rate increasing by 0.3 percentage points. The specific declines were 1.8% in Beijing, 1.3% in Shanghai, 5.9% in Guangzhou, and 2.8% in Shenzhen [3]. Group 3: Price Trends in Second and Third-Tier Cities - New residential sales prices in second-tier cities fell by 3.0% year-on-year, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 4.6%, with both categories experiencing a narrowing of the decline rates by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively [3]. - Second-hand residential prices in second-tier cities decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, and third-tier cities saw a decline of 6.7%, with both categories also showing a narrowing of the decline rates [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant increase in Hong Kong's property market activity expected around March-April 2025, with a slight rise in the property price index observed in April-May 2025, leading banks to adopt a more positive stance on mortgage business [1] - The property price index from Midland Realty hit a low of 126.3 points in March and slightly rebounded to 127.5 points by the last week reported [1] - Factors contributing to the rebound in property prices include a "super rebound" from previous rapid declines, optimistic expectations regarding economic recovery, and a decrease in mortgage interest rates encouraging buyers to enter the market [1] Group 2 - Recent market activity shows that small and medium-sized unit buyers, along with first-time buyers, dominate the market, with popular unit prices ranging from 6 million to 7 million HKD, while units priced over 10 million HKD are experiencing lower liquidity [2] - The Hong Kong government's changes to the stamp duty policy, raising the threshold from 3 million HKD to 4 million HKD, have significantly impacted transaction volumes, with over 1,000 registrations for second-hand residential properties priced between 3 million and 4 million HKD in April, marking a new high since November 2016 [2] - The talent recruitment initiatives by the Hong Kong government have led to a reversal in the declining trend of the labor population since 2020, with 196,000 individuals arriving in Hong Kong as part of these measures [2] Group 3 - The company expresses a cautiously optimistic outlook for Hong Kong's property prices, predicting 45,000 new residential mortgage applications in 2025, ending a three-year decline since 2021, with existing home mortgages expected to rise by 10% to 55,500 applications [3] - The forecast for pre-sale mortgages is set at 6,500, representing a 55% increase compared to 2024, potentially reaching a five-year high [3] - However, uncertainties in geopolitical conditions and a high supply of new units, with approximately 24,000 units expected to be completed this year and nearly 100,000 over the next four years, may influence future price trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a significant recovery, with transaction volumes reaching new highs, particularly in the luxury segment, as the overall market sentiment improves following recent economic changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall number of property transactions in Hong Kong for the first half of 2025 reached 36,848, with a total value of 277.03 billion, marking a 12.0% increase in volume and a 9.4% increase in value compared to the second half of 2024 [3]. - In June 2025, the total number of property transactions was 7,271, with a total value of 66.41 billion, representing increases of 12.9% in volume and 33.2% in value from May 2025 [2]. Group 2: Luxury Segment Insights - Transactions for private residential properties valued over 20 million reached 1,269, with a total value of 73.45 billion, reflecting a 3.9% increase in volume and a 4.9% increase in value compared to the second half of 2024 [4]. - The number of transactions for second-hand luxury properties valued over 50 million increased by 32.4% to 135, with a total value of 15.69 billion, achieving new highs in both volume and value [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The decline in interest rates and a favorable stock market have contributed to a nearly 30% drop in Hong Kong property prices from their peak, attracting investment back into the luxury market [5]. - The first half of 2025 saw a decrease in transactions for new luxury properties, with a drop of 8.3% in volume compared to the second half of 2024, indicating a shift in buyer preference towards second-hand properties [5].

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing a significant increase in second-hand housing supply, with over 75,000 effective listings as of July 7, marking a rise of more than 3,000 units in two weeks, primarily driven by the Longgang, Baoan, and Futian districts contributing over 60% of the new supply [1] - Despite 71.8% of monitored areas seeing average prices decline, there are positive signals emerging, with the proportion of declining properties narrowing to 51.9% and the percentage of rising properties increasing to 36.2% [2] - Structural opportunities are becoming apparent, with resilient core area assets and significant price differentiation in peripheral regions, indicating a potential new phase of value discovery in the market [4] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by three main features: enhanced resilience of core area assets, increased differentiation in peripheral regions, and a rising trend in the proportion of larger unit sales (over 120㎡) [4] - The policy environment continues to influence market expectations, with adjustments in second-hand housing reference prices and an increase in affordable housing construction, which is gradually diverting market demand [5] - The financial landscape shows a shift in funding preferences, with a notable increase in long-term loans and a high auction failure rate for luxury properties, indicating liquidity risks in high-value assets [5] Price Trends - The price increase leaderboard for July shows significant gains in various districts, with the highest increase of 19% in the Shuanglong Garden of Baoan district, reflecting a "low-price rebound" logic [3] - The market is expected to maintain a dual structure of stability in core areas and adjustments in peripheral regions as the traditional peak season approaches [5] - The overall market dynamics suggest that buyers should focus on specific district characteristics, such as industrial support and transportation planning, rather than solely on price [5]

Group 1 - The Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL) reported at 136.68 points, with a slight weekly increase of 0.09%, marking a total rise of 0.82% over four consecutive weeks, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed compared to previous weeks [1] - The CCL remains at an 8.5-year low, hovering around levels seen in September 2016, with a projected cumulative decline of 0.70% in property prices by 2025 [1] - The index has increased by 1.33% from the low of 134.89 points before the March 2024 financial report, but it has decreased by 28.57% from the historical high of 191.34 points in August 2021 [1] Group 2 - The CCL Mass index stands at 137.74 points, reflecting a weekly decline of 0.11%, while the CCL for small units is at 136.49 points, down 0.02% [2] - The CCL for large units is at 137.61 points, with a weekly increase of 0.60%, continuing a three-week upward trend [2] - Among the four districts, prices showed mixed results, with the CCL Mass for Hong Kong Island rising by 2.22%, the largest increase in 14 weeks, while New Territories East and West experienced declines [2]