Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of pollution prevention and control, aiming to achieve annual and "14th Five-Year Plan" goals, and to continuously improve the ecological environment quality in the capital [2][3] - Key tasks include winning the blue sky defense battle, enhancing air pollution control, and promoting the use of new energy vehicles, especially for old vehicles and non-road mobile machinery [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for strict supervision and enforcement in construction sites and road transport to prevent pollution, as well as the protection of water sources and soil environment [2] Group 2 - The fourth quarter is identified as a critical period for achieving annual goals and the "14th Five-Year Plan" completion, with a focus on economic stability and growth [3] - The meeting called for optimizing the business environment, enhancing talent services, and providing policy support to help enterprises overcome difficulties and improve competitiveness [3] - Emphasis was placed on expanding effective investment and planning major projects to play a key role in stabilizing growth [3]

Core Points - The Beijing municipal government held an executive meeting to discuss the progress of the "Beautiful Beijing" initiative and pollution prevention efforts, emphasizing the importance of achieving annual and "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [1][2] Group 1: Pollution Prevention and Environmental Protection - The meeting stressed the need to accelerate the implementation of key tasks to improve the ecological environment quality in the capital, with a focus on winning the "Blue Sky Defense War" and enhancing air pollution control [2] - Specific measures include deepening autumn and winter air pollution prevention, promoting the electrification of small vehicles, old trucks, and non-road mobile machinery, and advancing the creation of green enterprises [2] - The government will enhance supervision of construction sites and road transport, increase nighttime enforcement inspections, and strictly investigate road spillage [2] - Water pollution prevention will be prioritized, with measures to protect water sources and ensure safe drinking water for urban and rural areas [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of managing soil environmental risks and preventing new pollution, while also promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality initiatives [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Business Environment - The fourth quarter is identified as a critical period for achieving annual goals and completing the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on stabilizing economic growth [3] - The government aims to optimize the business environment by enhancing talent services, industrial support, and policy backing, while actively addressing enterprises' needs [3] - Specific sectors such as catering, accommodation, exhibitions, construction, and cultural entertainment will receive targeted measures to ensure stable growth [3] - The government plans to expand effective investment by implementing, reserving, and planning major projects to play a key role in stabilizing growth [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8%, slightly exceeding expectations but still below the boom - bust line, while the non - manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 pct to 50.0%. The supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, putting pressure on enterprise profit restoration. Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a relatively low level. The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. The bond market priced the fundamentals further on the day the data was released, and it is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was slightly better than expected but below the boom - bust line, rising 0.4 pct month - on - month to 49.8% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 49.6%), basically in line with seasonality. The non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0% (Bloomberg consensus forecast: 50.2%), remaining at a seasonal low. Among them, the service industry PMI dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI rose slightly by 0.2 pct to 49.3%, both weaker than seasonality [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing Industry** - Manufacturing sentiment has moderately recovered, but the supply - demand relationship needs optimization, and whether production is "front - loaded" remains to be seen. In September, the manufacturing PMI improved more than expected, rising 0.4 pct to 49.8%. The production index rose 1.1 pct to 51.9%, reaching a new high since Q2 this year, while the new order index only increased 0.2 pct to 49.7%. The gap between the "production - new order" index widened to 2.2 pct, indicating that the supply recovery intensity may be greater than the demand improvement. Enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory has increased, but there are signs of inventory accumulation, and production may be "front - loaded" [7]. - There are differentiations in external and internal demand and price structure. External demand is stable, domestic demand recovers slowly, and the price indicators have generally improved, but the gap between the "purchase price of major raw materials - ex - factory price" continues to widen, which may still restrict enterprise profit restoration. In September, the purchase price index of major raw materials remained in the expansion range of 53.2%, while the ex - factory price index dropped to 48.2%, and the gap between the two widened to 5.0 pct. External demand remained resilient, with the new export order index rising to 47.8%, while domestic demand recovery was still relatively slow, with the new order index only increasing 0.2 pct to 49.7% [7]. - Small - scale enterprise sentiment has significantly improved, and the sentiment of emerging manufacturing industries has also improved. In September, the PMI of large - scale enterprises reached 51.0%, remaining in the expansion range. Small - scale enterprises improved significantly, with the PMI rising 1.6 pct month - on - month, while the sentiment of medium - scale enterprises declined. In terms of industries, the PMI of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries remained in the high - sentiment range above 51%, with significant improvements in industries such as automobiles and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment. The PMI of the consumer goods industry also rose to 50.6% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing Industry** - Service industry sentiment has declined, and the construction industry has improved but is still at a seasonal low. In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index dropped 0.3 pct to 50.0%, and the service industry index dropped 0.4 pct to 50.1%. The end of the summer vacation effect is an important factor, with the sentiment of consumer - related industries such as catering and cultural and entertainment significantly declining, while modern service industries such as finance and telecommunications maintained high sentiment. The business activity index of the construction industry rose slightly by 0.2 pct, but the absolute level of 49.3% was still below the boom - bust line, indicating that real estate and infrastructure investment may continue to be under pressure [7]. - **Bond Market Outlook** - The sustainability of PMI restoration needs to be observed. On the day the data was released, the bond market priced the fundamentals further, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond dropping 2 BP. A series of growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented recently, and the investment of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments may support infrastructure investment. The expectation of optimizing real estate market regulation policies in many places has increased, but whether the economy will continue to improve in an environment of weak domestic demand and prices remains to be seen. It is expected that as the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market gradually increases, the bond market performance in the fourth quarter may be better than that in the third quarter [7].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 49.8% in September, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 50.0%, reflecting a slight slowdown in non-manufacturing activities [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index increased to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for five months [4] - The purchasing volume index rose to 51.6%, indicating improved procurement activities [4] - New orders index reached 49.7%, showing a stabilization in market demand [4] - The export new orders index improved to 47.8%, suggesting a narrowing decline in export demand [4] - The manufacturing purchase price index was 53.2%, while the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating mixed price trends across sectors [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with the construction index at 49.3% and the services index at 50.1% [8] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing remained above 55%, indicating stable optimism among enterprises [8] - The postal industry showed significant growth, with indices above 60%, reflecting active online shopping [8][9] Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is expected to see continued growth in Q4, driven by macro policies and seasonal demand [5] - Non-manufacturing activities are anticipated to stabilize and recover, supported by year-end effects and holiday demand [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies issued by the Ministry of Commerce and the People's Bank of China aim to stimulate service consumption through financial and fiscal measures, enhancing the quality of service consumption and promoting economic growth [1][2]. Policy Synergy Effect - Service consumption is a crucial driver of economic growth, especially amid increasing external uncertainties and domestic economic adjustments [2]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented various financial support policies to boost service consumption supply and meet residents' service consumption needs [2]. - A specific initiative includes the establishment of a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan program, which has already seen nearly 60 billion yuan in applications from around 4,000 businesses [2]. Financial Support and Credit Expansion - The People's Bank of China has also set up a 500 billion yuan technology innovation and transformation re-loan program, which has expanded to 800 billion yuan in 2024, supporting projects in key service sectors [3]. - In the first half of the year, this program supported nearly 100 projects in hospitality, education, and tourism, with loan contracts totaling approximately 11.9 billion yuan [3]. - Financial institutions are focusing on enhancing credit supply in key consumption areas, with a reported loan balance of 2.79 trillion yuan in service consumption sectors, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [5]. Innovation in Consumption Scenarios - The policies encourage financial institutions to support diverse service consumption scenarios and key project developments, aiming to transform traditional consumption [6][7]. - The integration of financial resources into various consumption scenarios, such as rural e-commerce and cultural tourism, is emphasized to enhance service supply capabilities [7]. Deepening in Niche Markets - Financial institutions are increasing support for niche markets like cultural tourism and sports, which enhances service consumption willingness and capacity [8]. - The "silver economy" is highlighted as a growing sector, with initiatives aimed at promoting elderly care services and related industries [8]. Future Outlook - As income levels rise, the shift from goods consumption to service consumption is expected to create more opportunities for financial institutions [9]. - Continuous policy reinforcement is suggested to guide funding towards essential sectors like elderly care and digital consumption, ensuring high-quality service supply [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint issuance of the "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" by nine government departments aims to address the bottlenecks in service consumption through a coordinated multi-departmental approach, emphasizing the importance of financial support and collaboration among various sectors [1] Group 1: Policy Measures Overview - The policy measures include nineteen specific tasks across five areas: cultivating service consumption promotion platforms, enriching high-quality service supply, stimulating new service consumption growth, enhancing financial support, and improving statistical monitoring systems [1] - The financial sector is highlighted as a key participant in resolving service consumption bottlenecks, with a call for proactive engagement and integration of monetary, credit, and capital market policies [1] Group 2: Financial Sector Initiatives - Financial institutions are encouraged to expand high-quality financial service offerings to meet the unmet financial demands of the service consumption sector and residents, particularly in areas like elderly care, childcare, and cultural tourism [2] - The central bank's establishment of a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan fund is emphasized as a tool to incentivize financial institutions to increase support for sectors such as accommodation and entertainment [2] Group 3: Consumer Credit Support - There is a push to enhance support for consumer credit to stimulate resident consumption potential, with initiatives like tax refunds and consumption vouchers being highlighted [3] - The number of tax refund stores is projected to reach 10,000 by mid-2025, tripling from the end of 2024, with a 98% increase in tax refund sales [3] Group 4: Financial Product Optimization - Financial institutions are urged to continuously optimize financial products and services to provide diverse, high-quality consumption options, focusing on key consumption areas such as food, housing, and entertainment [4] - There is a call for increased support for various types of loans, including first loans, renewal loans, and credit loans, to enhance the financial backing for the consumption sector [4] Group 5: Risk Management and Compliance - Financial institutions are advised to improve credit structure and risk management to ensure precise financial services, avoiding extremes in credit work that could overlook risks [4] - The importance of regulatory measures to enhance compliance and prevent financial bottlenecks in service consumption is emphasized, promoting a virtuous cycle of demand upgrading, supply optimization, and consumption expansion [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption, which is seen as a crucial driver for economic growth and improving living standards [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy measures focus on addressing bottlenecks in service consumption development, emphasizing the combination of improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [1]. - Initiatives include creating high-profile sports events, expanding long-term care insurance, and supporting early childhood education to enhance service consumption [1]. - The measures aim to optimize supply and stimulate demand by promoting new consumption models and increasing quality service resources in sectors like culture and tourism [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the first half of the year, over 19 million foreign visitors entered China, marking a 30% year-on-year increase, with visa-free entries rising by 54% [3]. - The number of duty-free shops has tripled compared to the end of 2024, with a 248% increase in the number of people benefiting from duty-free refunds [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce is working to enhance high-quality consumption supply and create diverse consumption scenarios to boost inbound consumption [3]. Group 3: Service Quality Improvement - The government plans to enhance service supply quality by promoting innovation in service sectors through initiatives like "Artificial Intelligence+" [4]. - There is a focus on improving service levels in key areas such as childcare, elderly care, and tourism by increasing skilled labor supply and implementing credit systems [4][5]. - The establishment of a unified market environment is being prioritized to facilitate fair market access, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises [5]. Group 4: Financial Support - The People's Bank of China has allocated 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care refinancing, encouraging financial institutions to increase lending in key service sectors [5]. - As of July, the loan balance in key service consumption areas reached 2.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan re-lending program to support service consumption and elderly care, aiming to guide financial institutions to increase credit investment in key sectors such as accommodation, catering, cultural and entertainment, education, resident services, and tourism [1] - Financial institutions have reported nearly 60 billion yuan in applications for the service consumption and elderly care re-lending, involving nearly 4,000 operating entities and over 5,700 loans [1] - A separate re-lending program for technological innovation and technological transformation was set up with an initial 500 billion yuan in April 2024, which has been expanded to 800 billion yuan this year to encourage banks to support credit for key equipment upgrade projects [1] Group 2 - In the first half of this year, the technological innovation and technological transformation re-lending supported nearly 100 projects in accommodation, catering, cultural education, and tourism sectors, with loan contracts signed amounting to approximately 11.9 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of the PMI manufacturing index in August, along with improvements in production, new orders, and prices, indicates the initial effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering excessive competition. The stock market's recovery is boosting economic confidence, which may lead to a rebound in consumer spending. Future policies to expand domestic demand are expected to strengthen the positive economic trend, especially in the service consumption sector as the impact of durable goods policies diminishes [1][7]. Group 1: Economic Resilience - The production index in August rose to 50.8%, while the new orders index was at 49.5%, indicating a strong resilience in the economy despite a widening supply-demand gap of 1.3 percentage points [2]. - The increase in production is attributed to stable domestic demand and a recovering stock market, alongside exporters rushing to ship goods due to new tax regulations [2]. Group 2: Price Index Trends - The PMI output price index and raw material purchase price index increased by 0.8 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points to 49.1% and 53.3%, respectively, marking three consecutive months of price increases [3]. - The rise in prices is linked to the initial success of measures to curb excessive competition, with 11 out of 16 industries showing price increases [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Procurement Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 46.8%, while raw material inventory and procurement levels rose, indicating a shift towards passive inventory reduction [4]. - Companies are adjusting procurement levels in response to new orders, maintaining low inventory levels as demand and exports increase [4]. Group 4: Performance of Enterprises - Large enterprises saw a significant increase in their index to 50.8%, while small enterprises slightly rose to 46.6%, and medium enterprises fell to 48.9% [5]. - The service sector, particularly transportation and entertainment, benefited from summer consumption, with business activity indices for rail and air transport exceeding 55% [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The PMI manufacturing index remains in contraction for five consecutive months, highlighting ongoing economic pressures, particularly for small and medium enterprises [7]. - Continued policy support is necessary to sustain economic recovery, especially in demand, with upcoming measures to stimulate service consumption and digital economy initiatives [7].

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index are at 50.3% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points [1][3] - The overall economic climate in China continues to expand, with expectations for sustained release of domestic demand potential in September and the fourth quarter [1][11] Manufacturing Sector - In August, various sub-indices within the manufacturing sector, including production, new orders, and procurement volume, showed increases ranging from 0.1 to 1.8 percentage points, while the inventory and employment indices saw slight declines [3][10] - The prices of major raw materials and factory output have also improved, with indices at 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, marking a continuous rise for three months [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index has stabilized above 50%, with new orders showing a slight increase, indicating a stable operational environment [5] - The financial services sector, including banking and capital markets, has shown strong performance, with business activity indices above 60% [5][4] Consumer Activity - The hospitality and restaurant sectors have seen significant increases in their business activity indices, with both indices rising over 5 percentage points compared to the previous month [6] - Transportation sectors, including rail and air travel, have maintained high activity levels, with indices above 59% [7] Emerging Industries - The information services sector, particularly telecommunications and internet services, is experiencing robust growth, with business activity indices above 55% [8] - The ongoing "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to further enhance the application scenarios and development potential of the information services industry [8] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the macroeconomic environment will continue to improve, with stable recovery in manufacturing demand and expansion in production activities [11][12] - The impact of recent policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth, including support for new industrialization and carbon market development, is expected to inject new momentum into the economy [12]