Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth in China's cotton yarn imports, indicating a positive trend in the industry with significant year-on-year increases in both quantity and value [1]. Import Data Summary - In September 2025, China's cotton yarn imports reached 130,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 15% [1]. - The import value for the same period was $285 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [1]. Industry Insights - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services [1]. - The firm has over a decade of experience in the industry research field, offering tailored solutions to empower investment decisions [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended for selling call options [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to close long positions at high levels or engage in range short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to move sideways. Soda ash 01 contract follows a short - selling mindset [1][23][24][34] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to move sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples and jujubes are in weak oscillation [1][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs face pressure in rebounds; Corn is in a bottom - building oscillation; Soybean meal rebounds from a low level; Oils are in weak oscillation [1][41][48][49] 2. Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiation, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, so it will oscillate to wait for new changes at the end of the year [6] - The main trading line of Treasury bonds is not over, but the market is observing the scale and scope of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, so it is expected to move sideways [6] - The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising steadily. The supply of coking coal may be affected by the resumption of production in coal mines, and the price of rebar is expected to have limited downside space due to low valuation [8] - The supply of glass is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor, so it is recommended to sell call options [10] - The short - term supply - demand situation of copper has limited support for prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply of aluminum may face adjustments, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [12][14] - The supply of nickel may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading [18][20] - Precious metals are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, but are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading [20][22] - The supply - demand of PVC is still weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of caustic soda is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][25] - The cost of benzene ethylene is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak, so it is expected to oscillate. The cost support of rubber is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate [26][28] - The supply of urea decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high, so it is expected to oscillate [29][31] - The supply of polyolefins has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, so PE is expected to oscillate, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly [33] - The supply of soda ash is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] - The supply - demand of cotton and cotton yarn is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply of PTA is in a state of inventory accumulation, and it is in low - level oscillation [37][38] - The quality of apples has declined, and consumption is weak, so the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is expected to decline [38][40] - The supply of pigs is large in the first half of next year, and prices face pressure. The supply of eggs is still large in the medium - long term, and prices face pressure [41][44] - The supply of corn is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak, so it is in a bottom - building oscillation. The price of soybean meal is supported by cost and is expected to rebound [47][48] - Oils are under pressure in the short term but have support factors, and are expected to oscillate widely [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks are generally down. The market lacks catalysts and is expected to oscillate. It is bullish in the medium - long term and recommended to buy on dips [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures have mixed performance. The market is observing the central bank's operations, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect sideways movement [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market has tight supply and demand, and prices are rising. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [8] - **Rebar**: The price has fallen, but the low valuation limits the downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8] - **Glass**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and the overall supply - demand pattern is poor. It is recommended to sell the 01 contract out - of - the - money call options and hold them until expiration [10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high and then declined. The short - term supply - demand has limited support, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The recommended operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 85000 - 89000 [12][13] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum may face adjustments. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [14] - **Nickel**: The supply may be more abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of the Shanghai tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven needs, are in a short - term adjustment state, and are recommended for range trading. The reference range of the Shanghai silver 12 contract is 10700 - 11600, and that of the Shanghai gold 12 contract is 890 - 940 [20][22] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is affected by alumina, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2400 [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost is under pressure, and the overall chemical fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate. The support at 15000 is concerned [28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases, demand increases, and the price is expected to rise slightly. The 01 contract range is 1600 - 1700 [29][30] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, and the port inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract range is 2230 - 2330 [31][32] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has new production capacity, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the support at 6900, and PP is expected to oscillate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6600 [33] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling mindset for the 01 contract [36] 3.5 Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand is expected to be stable, and it is expected to oscillate [37] - **PTA**: The price is in low - level oscillation, and the supply is in a state of inventory accumulation. The concerned range is 4400 - 4700 [38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The quality of apples has declined, consumption is weak, and the price is expected to decline. The price of jujubes is also expected to decline [38][40] 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The 01 contract is under pressure due to postponed supply, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions gradually. The 03 and 05 contracts have large supply and weak demand in the first half of next year, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The 07 and 09 contracts should be carefully bottom - fishing [41] - **Eggs**: The 12 contract has a large premium over the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies lightly. The 01 contract oscillates in the range of 3250 - 3400 [43][44] - **Corn**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. It is in a bottom - building oscillation, and the 01 contract oscillates in the range of 2050 - 2170. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: It rebounds from a low level. The M2601 contract can take profit on a small scale at high levels and hold after a pullback. Spot enterprises can fix the basis from November to January at low points [48][49] - **Oils**: They are in a high - level adjustment, with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. The 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9250 - 9350 respectively, and not chase short. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of the narrowing spread of rapeseed - soybean 01 and the widening spread of soybean - palm 01 [49][54]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on cotton and cotton yarn in the agricultural products industry, dated November 4, 2024 [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,535, down 65; CF05 at 13,555, down 60; CF09 at 13,725, down 55; CY01 at 19,795, down 125; CY05 at 19,845, down 75; CY09 at 20,085, unchanged [2] - Trading volume and open interest of each contract had different changes, e.g., CF01 trading volume decreased by 3,913 and open interest decreased by 6,089 [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 19; Cot A was 76.85 cents/pound; FC Index:M: arrival price was 75.69, up 0.09; etc [2] Price Spreads - Cotton and cotton yarn had various spreads, such as cotton 1 - 5 month spread at -20, down 5; 5 - 9 month spread at -170, down 5; etc [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On November 4, 2025, the Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1803 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous day, with expected short - term upward fluctuations [4] - This year's cotton yield per mu in Shaya County was generally 380 - 450 kg/mu, a decrease of 30 - 70 kg/mu compared to last year, possibly due to improper fertilization and low September temperatures [4] - As of October 28, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas decreased significantly, and the quality indicators of US cotton declined [4] Trading Logic - In November, with new cotton on the market, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Supply is expected to increase but the increase may be less than previously thought. Demand enters the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate with limited upside and downside. Sino - US trade policies may have a large impact [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger. Close previous long positions [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Although market confidence improved last week, downstream demand did not improve significantly. Cotton has large hedging pressure. Most cotton yarn prices were stable, with only a few varieties selling well. Follow downstream demand and Zhengzhou cotton trends [9] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is weak, and fabric mills purchase raw materials as needed. Downstream customers place mainly rigid orders and are cautious [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 3, 2025, for example, CF601C13400.CZC closed at 260, down 10%; CF601P13000.CZC closed at 25, down 34.2% [11] Volatility - The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly. Implied volatilities of different options varied, e.g., 7.5% for CF601 - C - 13400 [11] Option Strategies - Hold off on options [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts of 1% tariff cotton price spreads, cotton basis for different months, cotton yarn - cotton spreads, and cotton inter - monthly spreads [15][18][22][23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,535, 13,575, and 13,740 respectively, with the price of CF01 down 5, CF05 down 25, and CF09 down 30. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 19,760, 19,745, and 20,085 respectively, with the price of CY01 down 15, CY05 down 50, and CY09 unchanged [3]. - The CCIndex3128B spot price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49; the CY IndexC32S was 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30. The Cot A price was 75.65 cents/pound, and the FCY IndexC33S was 21,213 yuan/ton, up 13 [3]. - The 1 - 5 - month cotton spread was -40, up 20; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -165, up 5; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 205, down 25. The 1 - 5 - month棉纱 spread was 15, up 35; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -340, down 20,135; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 325, up 20,100 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,225, down 10; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,170, down 25; the CY09 - CF09 spread was 6,345, up 20,115. The 1% tariff - based internal and external cotton spread was 1,317, down 218; the sliding - duty internal and external cotton spread was 493, down 120; the internal and external yarn spread was -743, up 17 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of October 15, the textile enterprises' in - stock cotton industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the end of last month. The available cotton inventory was 971,200 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days from the end of last month, and the grey fabric inventory was 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days from the end of last month [6]. - Since the new cotton acquisition started on September 26, 24 cotton acquisition and processing enterprises in Hutubi County had acquired 242,000 tons of seed cotton as of October 10, and the acquisition was expected to be completed by early December. As of mid - October, 35 cotton processing enterprises in Shaya County had acquired 215,000 tons of seed cotton, achieving the expected acquisition volume, with an average daily acquisition volume of over 20,000 tons [6]. - During the holiday, as new flowers entered the acquisition period, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, the Xinjiang cotton output was high and the enthusiasm of ginning factories for acquisition was average, with no large - scale rush for acquisition. The acquisition price in some markets was around 6 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new flowers, it was expected that there would be certain selling and hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season performance of the demand side was average. Although the downstream demand had slightly improved, the improvement range was relatively limited, so the peak season performance this year was not expected to be very prominent, and the peak season demand was expected to have a relatively limited boosting effect on the market [7]. - The trading strategies were as follows: for unilateral trading, it was expected that the future trend of US cotton would mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton was also expected to show a volatile trend; for arbitrage and options, it was recommended to wait and see [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated steadily, the hedging pressure gradually emerged, and the cotton spot price was stable with a slight increase. However, due to the expectation of a bumper new cotton harvest, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines, mainly replenishing raw materials on a just - in - time basis. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market slightly recovered, with small orders selling well, but traders were still cautious in purchasing. Affected by Zhengzhou cotton, some manufacturers continued to adjust their quotes, and the pure cotton yarn price slightly recovered. However, due to the poor orders of weaving factories, the actual transaction price did not change much. There was little change in inventory, and the inventory of some spinning mills in the inland slightly increased. It was necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand. In addition, factors such as the China - US presidential meeting and the Fed's possible interest rate cut at the end of the month might also have an impact on external demand [8]. - The current ex - works price of Xinjiang - produced combed compact siro - spun R/JC 50/50 50S was around 25,000 yuan/ton, and the ex - works price of high - grade ring - spun C32S was 21,200 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Real - order negotiations were available [10]. - Cotton weaving factories generally reported that the recent market was significantly worse than in September. Currently, they were in the inventory accumulation stage, and there were discounts on the actual transaction price of grey fabrics. The in - production orders were mainly for medium - and thick - type fabrics, but the profit was poor, and there were few sampling orders for thin - type fabrics. Since the new downstream orders were mainly small and urgent orders, and large orders were hard to find, weaving factories mainly purchased on a just - in - time basis [10]. Group 3: Options - On October 21, 2025, the closing price of CF601C13400.CZC was 247, up 32.1%; the closing price of CF601P13000.CZC was 45, down 29.7%; the closing price of CF601P12400.CZC was 15, down 42.3%. The 120 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 8.542, with the volatility slightly decreasing compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.9%, and the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.9% [12]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7255, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6021. Today, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. The option trading strategy was to wait and see [13][14].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: October 21, 2024 [2] - Researchers: Wang Xizhen, Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,540 with a gain of 75, trading volume of 245,897 hands (down 43,834), and open interest of 593,229 (up 231) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,775 with a gain of 170, trading volume of 13,841 hands (up 161), and open interest of 23,282 (up 1,127) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49; CY IndexC32S was 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30 [3] - Cot A was 75.65 cents/pound, up 75.10; FCY IndexC33S was 21,200 yuan/ton, down 18 [3] Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -60, up 5;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -20, up 95 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,235, up 95; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 3,273, up 1,901 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the annual US cotton production forecast, 27% slower year - on - year [6] - In September 2025, cottonseed imports were about 75,177.17 tons, down 35.84% year - on - year, with an average import price of about $342.25/ton, down 10.91% year - on - year [6] - In September, total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, up 3.0% year - on - year. Retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles above the designated size were 123.1 billion yuan, up 4.7% year - on - year [7] Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton entered the acquisition period, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang cotton production was high and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm was general, with no large - scale rush to buy [8] - The peak season demand in the market was average, and the improvement in downstream demand was limited, so the peak season performance was not expected to be outstanding [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a fluctuating trend [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to rise, but the cotton yarn market was affected by weak downstream demand. The trading volume was average, and spinners and traders were cautious [11] - The cotton fabric market in October was weaker than in September, with demand remaining sluggish. Winter orders were nearing completion, and spring orders were scarce [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On October 21, 2025, CF601C13400.CZC closed at 247, up 32.1%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [15] - CF601P13000.CZC closed at 45, down 29.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.9% [15] Volatility and Strategy - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 8.542, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [15] - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7255, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.6021. Both call and put trading volumes increased [16] - Option strategy: Wait and see [17]

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: CF01 closed at 13465 with a gain of 130, volume of 289,731 (increase of 109660), and open interest of 592,998 (increase of 6531); CF05 closed at 13530 with a gain of 140, volume of 82,594 (increase of 42113), and open interest of 196,748 (increase of 18170); CF09 closed at 13700 with a gain of 135, volume of 635 (increase of 136), and open interest of 1,918 (increase of 238); CY01 closed at 19605 with a gain of 135, volume of 13680 (increase of 1115), and open interest of 22155 (increase of 1484); CY05 closed at 19720 with a gain of 130, volume of 7 (increase of 7), and open interest of 20 (increase of 2); CY09 closed at 19900 with a gain of 155, volume of 1 (increase of 1), and open interest of 4 (no change) [3] - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B was 14679 yuan/ton (up 15), CY IndexC32S was 20440 (no change), Cot A was 75.10 cents/pound, FCY IndexC33S was 21218 (up 4), (FC Index):M: to - port price was 73.40 (no change), Indian S - 6 was 55800 (no change), polyester staple fiber was 7450 (up 70), pure polyester yarn T32S was 10950 (down 50), viscose staple fiber was 13000 (no change), and viscose yarn R30S was 17250 (no change) [3] - Spreads: Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was - 65 (down 10), 5 - 9 month spread was - 170 (up 5), 9 - 1 month spread was 235 (up 5);棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was - 115 (up 5), 5 - 9 month spread was - 180 (down 25), 9 - 1 month spread was 295 (up 20); CY01 - CF01 spread was 6140 (up 5), CY05 - CF05 spread was 6190 (down 10), CY09 - CF09 spread was 6200 (up 20); 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 3224 (up 1852), sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 1609 (up 1094), internal - external yarn spread was - 778 (down 4) [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On October 20, 2025, the Xinjiang - outbound cotton road transport price index was 0.1797 yuan/ton·km, up 0.06% month - on - month. Transport demand and capacity resources both decreased slightly, and the index is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [6] - In September 2025, China's cotton cloth imports were 3628.19 million meters (up 17.58% year - on - year, down 8.28% month - on - month), 4603.92 tons (up 11.63% year - on - year, down 0.32% month - on - month), and the import value was 28.0053 million US dollars (down 2.47% year - on - year, up 2.23% month - on - month) [6] - As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 27% slower than the same period last year. Upland cotton inspection volume was 376,100 tons (13.37% progress, 27% slower), and Pima cotton inspection volume was 600 tons (1% progress, 92% slower) [6] Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton entered the acquisition stage, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang cotton production is high and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, with no large - scale rush to buy. Some acquisition prices are around 6 yuan/kg. As new cotton is widely available, there will be selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand in the market is average, and the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so the peak season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and the boost to the futures market will be limited [7] Trading Strategy - Single - side: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a volatile trend [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - From last week's market sales, fabric mills reported that trading in October was worse than in September. Fabric mills generally expect to maintain just - in - time sales in October, and the market is unlikely to exceed that in September. Currently, the operating rate of knitting circular machine factories in the Guangdong market is mostly 20% - 30%, and the probability of a rebound in the operating rate is high. Fabric mills have low expectations for the market in the second half of the month [8] - On Friday night, Zhengzhou cotton opened and closed higher, and cotton yarn futures followed suit, with the market warming up. There was little change in the trading of pure cotton yarn over the weekend [9] Group 3: Options - Option data: On October 20, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 199.00 (up 40.1%); for CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 53.00 (down 36.9%); for CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 17.00 (down 20.5%) [12] - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on this day was 8.542, with a slight decline compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.9%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.9% [12] - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7151, and the volume PCR was 0.7237. Both call and put option volumes increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [13] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread and CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [13][18][19][25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts [3]. - The spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, CY IndexC32S, Cot A, etc. [3]. - The price differences between different contracts and varieties are shown, including cotton inter - period spreads, cotton yarn inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In 2025, China's cotton planting area is 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The expected total output is 7.278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, with an upward adjustment of 62,000 tons from the previous period. Xinjiang's output is 6.972 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [6]. - As of September 30, 2025, the national cotton picking progress is 5.1%, 0.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the delivery progress is 1.8%, 0.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year; the average purchase price of cottonseed by cotton farmers is 6.3 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [6]. - The spot price of new cotton in inland warehouses for the 2025/26 season is temporarily stable. The sales basis of a large number of 2025/26 Aksu hand - picked 3130/30B/less than 1.5% impurity is around CF01 + 1800 for inland self - pick - up [6]. Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton enters the acquisition stage, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. This year, the output of Xinjiang cotton is high, and the enthusiasm of ginning factories for acquisition is average. There is no large - scale scramble for acquisition. The expected selling hedging pressure on the futures market will increase as new cotton is massively listed. The peak season demand in the market is average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is limited [7]. Trading Strategy - For the single - side strategy, it is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be in a range - bound pattern, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate [8]. - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Affected by positive domestic macro - policy signals and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, Zhengzhou cotton has slightly recovered in a volatile manner. The price of pure cotton yarn is generally stable, with some manufacturers offering price promotions. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and the inventory of spinning mills has increased. The impact of the implementation of favorable policies and the easing of Sino - US trade relations on downstream demand needs to be further monitored [8]. - The overall trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market is light, with stable quotations. Most weaving factories still report that orders in October are discontinuous, and they remain cautious about the future. Both finished product inventory and raw material inventory are maintained according to the September strategy. There is no improvement in export orders [10]. Group 3: Options - The implied volatilities of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are 9.3%, 10.9%, and 13.9% respectively. The 120 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.4519, slightly lower than the previous day [11]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is 0.7661, and the volume PCR is 0.8549. The trading volumes of both call and put options have increased [12]. - The options strategy is to wait and see [8][13] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts, such as the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, and the price difference between CY01 and CF01 [14][15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The future trend of US cotton is expected to be mainly volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weakening volatile trend. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [8]. - With the new cotton harvest, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand in the market is mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures price is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 35, 40, and 30 respectively; CY01 decreased by 70, while CY05 and CY09 remained unchanged. Trading volumes and open interest showed different degrees of increase or decrease [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 20, while CY IndexC32S remained stable. The price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 21, and the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 [3]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - product spreads, the values and their changes varied. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 55 with a 5 - point increase, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6025 with a 35 - point decrease [3]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: In Hutubi County, 869,000 mu of cotton has entered the harvest period with a 100% mechanized harvest rate. The spot price of new cotton in 2025/26 in the inland warehouse is stable. In September, the textile and clothing export volume was 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export was 221.686 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [6]. - **Trading Logic**: This year, the output of Xinjiang cotton is high, and ginneries' enthusiasm for acquisition is average. There is no large - scale rush to purchase, and the acquisition price is around 6 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand is mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures price is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect US cotton to be volatile and Zhengzhou cotton to be slightly weakening volatile. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The Zhengzhou cotton market continued to be volatile and weak last night. The theoretical cash flow of inland spinning enterprises turned from loss to profit, and the profit of Xinjiang spinning enterprises increased. The pure - cotton yarn market is still divided, with Xinjiang performing better than the inland. The overall price of pure - cotton yarn is in a stalemate, stable with a downward trend. The demand for pure - cotton cloth is weak, and the market price is stable with a downward trend [8][9]. Options - **Option Data**: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other data of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are provided. The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly, and the implied volatilities of different option contracts varied [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased in both open interest and trading volume. The option strategy is to wait and see [14][15]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spread between different cotton contracts [16][17][20]