Core Viewpoint - The ongoing threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz have heightened global market tensions, emphasizing the strategic importance of this waterway in global transportation [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Significance of the Strait - The Strait of Hormuz has historically served as a critical maritime trade route, evolving through different trade network versions from the 15th century to the present [1][2]. - The first version of trade networks was localized within the Persian Gulf, facilitating commerce between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula [1]. - The second version integrated the Indian Ocean trade route, with Indian merchants exporting textiles and spices to Hormuz, while Hormuz traders exchanged horses and precious metals [2]. Group 2: Current Strategic Importance - The Strait of Hormuz is now recognized as the only maritime exit for Persian Gulf oil, significantly increasing its strategic value as a key route for oil exports to Europe, North America, and Asia [3]. - Approximately 100 large oil tankers pass through the Strait daily, with an average oil flow of 20 million barrels per day projected for 2024, accounting for about 20% of global liquid oil consumption [3]. - The Strait also handles 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade, reinforcing its status as a critical energy transport corridor [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Alternatives - Despite the heavy reliance on the Strait, alternative transportation routes are limited due to high costs and logistical challenges associated with pipeline construction and maintenance [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that if the Strait were to close, there are virtually no viable alternatives for oil transport, highlighting the Strait's unique position in global energy supply [4]. Group 4: Market Impact and Economic Consequences - The threat of closure has already led to a doubling of rental prices for large oil tankers, significantly exceeding the Baltic Exchange's crude oil tanker index [5]. - Analysts predict that a closure would lead to increased transportation costs and supply shortages, potentially driving oil prices to between $120 and $130 per barrel, reminiscent of past oil crises [5][6]. - The closure of the Strait would severely impact economies reliant on Middle Eastern oil, particularly in Europe, where diesel imports from the region are crucial [6].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of accounts receivable management in the property industry, highlighting its significant impact on cash flow and potential dividend sustainability for companies [1][17] - The analysis of 30 sample companies reveals a notable increase in accounts receivable from 291.8 billion to 753.7 billion from 2020 to 2024, with growth rates declining significantly in recent years [2][17] - The report indicates a shift towards greater business independence, with the proportion of accounts receivable from related parties decreasing from 47% to 39% over five years, while third-party receivables increased from 53% to 61% [2][18] Group 2: Financial Trends - The average collection period for accounts receivable has lengthened, with the proportion of receivables due within one year dropping from 89% in 2019 to 58% in 2024, indicating increased difficulty in collection [3][18] - The provision for bad debts has risen sharply, with the ratio of provisions to trade receivables increasing from 4% in 2019 to 26% in 2024, reflecting heightened credit risk [3][18] - The overall collection rate for the sample companies has decreased from 90% to 78% between 2019 and 2024, with companies linked to distressed parent firms experiencing even lower rates [3][18] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on property companies with strong independent business capabilities and low reliance on related transactions, as these are critical indicators of financial health [19][20] - Specific companies highlighted for their strong parent company backgrounds and effective risk management include China Overseas Property, Poly Property, and China Merchants Jinling [19][20] - Companies like Wanwu Cloud, Country Garden Services, and Sunac Services are noted for their manageable accounts receivable risks, while China Resources Mixc Life is recognized for its advantageous business model [19][20] Group 4: Market Strategy - The report tracks monthly strategies for small-cap and growth styles, suggesting that small-cap stocks are likely to outperform in July based on historical data and quantitative models [5][6] - The growth style is also expected to perform well in July, with a recommendation to overweight growth stocks based on the analysis of market factors [6]

Aviation Industry - The airline sector is expected to see a rise in ticket prices and profitability due to limited capacity for summer flights and strong demand for family travel [1] - In May, domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices turned positive for the first time, with June showing a slight year-on-year increase [1] - The airline industry is entering a low supply growth phase, with demand performing better than market concerns since April, leading to a positive supply-demand outlook for the next two years [1] Oil Shipping Industry - The oil shipping sector is experiencing a decline in freight rates due to the easing of geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TCE rates dropping from $76,000 to $34,000 [2] - The estimated average VLCC TCE for oil shipping companies in Q2 2025 is projected to be $42,000, slightly lower than the $44,000 in the same period of 2024, indicating improved year-on-year performance [2] - The oil shipping supply-demand balance is expected to remain favorable over the next two years, supported by potential oil price declines [2] Market Highlights - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, remains stable despite recent geopolitical tensions, with a low probability of disruption [3] - The Strait accounts for nearly 30% of global oil maritime trade, with over 80% of Middle Eastern crude oil exports passing through it [3] - Recent conflicts between Iran and Israel led to a slight decrease in oil passage volume, but overall traffic remained stable [3]

报告导读： 航空：重视长逻辑。 5 月或行业性盈利，我们预计暑运供需乐观，暑运加班 严格受限，票价盈利上升可期。建议把握油价波动布局。油运：以伊局势缓和，油运运价 回落。未来两年供需向好，股息支持估值下限，风险收益比吸引。 航空：暑运加班严格受限，票价盈利上升可期。 我们估算 5 月国内含油票价首次转正且行业性盈利， 6 月国内含油票价继续保持同比略升趋势。 2025 上半年机队小幅增长，暑运机队周转提升空间极为有限， 且时刻控量加班受限，我们预计运投同比或仅小幅增长，其中国内运投或几无增长。暑运亲子游将继续旺 盛，供需预期乐观。近期部分航司局部市场预售票价略作调整，保障暑运预售进度良好。考虑 2024 年暑 运票价低基数，我们预计 2025 年暑运票价将同比上升，航司盈利有望再创新高。中国航空已进入供给低 增时代，需求自 4 月以来持续好于市场担忧，未来两年供需将继续向好，油价下行票价修复将加速盈利恢 复与中枢上升。建议把握油价波动布局航空长逻辑。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 暑运加班严格受限，霍尔木兹通行正常 报告日期：2025.06.29 报告作者： 岳鑫 （ ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant decline due to the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, with prices dropping over 8% in a single day, effectively reversing gains made since June 13 [1][2][3] Oil Price Movement - On June 23, international oil prices fell sharply after initial increases due to heightened geopolitical risks, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by $6.61 to $67.23 per barrel (down 8.95%) and Brent crude oil futures falling by $6.36 to $70.65 per barrel (down 8.26%) [2] - Following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, oil prices continued to decline, nearly erasing all gains from the previous weeks [1][3] Impact on Oil and Shipping Stocks - The oil and shipping sectors in the A-share market faced significant losses on June 24, with companies like Shandong Molong and Tongyuan Petroleum hitting their daily limit down [1][4] - Prior to the decline, oil-related stocks had surged, with Shandong Molong experiencing a nearly 95.44% increase from June 13 to June 23 [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the easing of geopolitical tensions will shift market focus back to fundamental and macroeconomic drivers, with expectations of oil prices stabilizing in the $60-$65 per barrel range for Q3, but facing potential downward pressure in Q4 [6] - The market is also influenced by OPEC's continued production increases and macroeconomic factors such as U.S. tariff policies and inflation risks [6]

点击按钮▲立即报名 阿里希望重塑用户对于淘宝App的认知，尽可能多地将各类消费塞进一个App中，最大化利用内部流量，京东和美团也在做类似的尝试。各大平 台的补贴措施减弱后，消费者是否会认可这种"超级消费App"，现在还不得而知。 美团全面拓展即时零售业务 内地与香港跨境支付通正式上线 6月23日消息，内地与香港快速支付系统互联互通（简称"跨境支付通"）近日正式上线。通过内地网上支付跨行清算系统与香港快速支付系统"转 数快"直接连接，跨境支付通支持用户通过参与机构的手机银行、网上银行等渠道，依托手机号码、银行账户等，线上发起内地与香港间人民币 和港币的跨境汇款，经常项目项下一定金额内的汇款可实时到账。 目前，首批参与跨境支付通的内地机构包括工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、招商银行；香港机构包括中银香港、东亚银 行、建银亚洲、恒生银行、汇丰银行、工银亚洲，后续将逐步扩大参与范围。（综合新华社） ｜点评｜ 和传统的跨境汇款相比，跨境支付通的优势主要在两方面，时效性提高和手续费成本降低。内地和香港的往来越发频繁，无论是投 资、旅游，还是求学、工作需要，资金流通的频率和规模都在增加。传统的跨境支付系统 ...

新华财经上海6月23日电（葛佳明） 中东地缘紧张局势的骤然升温，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡的 消息引发全球能源市场巨震，油运运费大幅攀升，推动原油、天然气、甲醇等重点能源品种价格为地缘 政治风险定价。 多数分析师接受新华财经采访时表示，中东局势或难以迅速降温，霍尔木兹海峡是中东地区重要油品出 口通道，短期冲突导致阶段性海运贸易受阻，使得各类资产再度上演剧烈波动。 通过复盘1970年以来中东地区重大冲突对市场的影响可以发现，在避险资产表现中黄金较美元表现更 优，对原油的短期影响最为直接，航运成本面临重构，液化天然气及甲醇市场也将受到显著影响。 油运运费大幅攀升 伊朗作为能源输出国，地缘冲突或对全球能源供应造成明显扰动。 霍尔木兹海峡是世界最重要的石油和天然气运输通道。美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据显示称，每天约 2000万桶石油通过霍尔木兹海峡运出。2024年和2025年第一季度，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油占全球 海运石油贸易总量的四分之一以上，约占全球石油和石油产品消费总量的五分之一。2024年全球约五分 之一的液化天然气贸易也通过霍尔木兹海峡。 上周，伊以冲突升级已经导致船只开始避开霍尔木兹海峡。全球最大 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 （赵乃迪/ 蔡嘉豪/王礼沫 ） 2025-06-22 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【农林牧渔】"618"战报出炉，宠物消费同比高增——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报（20250616-20250622） 25年"618"结束，宠物经济持续兑现高景气。根据京东"618"战报，超400个宠物品牌商家销售额同比增长超 100%，宠物成交用户同比增长32%、新晋养宠用户同比增长39%。 今 日 聚 焦 【有色】5月国内家用空调销量增长2.3%、产量同比下降1.8%——铜行业周报（20250616-20250620） 小结：矿端持续扰动，废铜端5月废铜国内产量、进口同步回落；需求端，5月国内空调产量低于此前预期，关 税备货效应减弱以及国内进入淡季 ...

报告摘要 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 以自身发展确定性应对外部不确定性，油气、油运战略价值凸显 2025年以来地缘政治局势不确定性较强，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。"三桶油"将继续维持高资本开支， 大力推进"增储上产"，2025年油气当量产量计划分别增长1.6%、1.3%、5.9%。此外，本轮伊以冲突导致原油 运输风险加剧。2025年至今，全球约11%的海运贸易量经由霍尔木兹海峡，其中包括34%的海运石油出口、 30%的液化石油气出口、20%的液化天然气贸易、18%的化学品贸易和7%的汽车贸易，若伊朗关闭海峡出口， 将对全球原油贸易产生破坏性影响。截至6月19日，BDTI TD3C-TCE运价报收57758美元/天，较6月13日冲突 开始时大涨72%，地缘冲突背 ...

以下文章来源于创业板观察 ，作者胡皓琼 创业板观察 . 创业板观察致力于发布深交所创业板的市场发展、政策变化、监管导向、上市企业动态等的及时信息， 提供有价值的市场资讯。 霍尔木兹海峡这一油运咽喉若被"掐断"，有分析人士认为， 市场可寻求长航线替代，但航程 拉长引发油运运费上涨，原油运费预计易涨难跌。 或受此影响，油运股大涨，截至上午收盘，兴通股份（603209.SH）涨停、招商南油 （601975.SH）涨6.98%、中远海能（600026.SH）涨4.53%。 根据油运上市公司财报，2024年中远海能VLCC船队中东航线营运天占比53%。中远海能、 招商轮船（601872.SH）的VLCC船队，都有与客户签订签署COA合同或不同期限结构的期 租合同。 油运市场本应步入淡季，油运运费却迎来大涨。波罗的海原油运价指数（BDTI）最新数据显 示，截至6月19日，TD3C TCE达到57758美元/天，为2024年4月以来的最高水平，较6月 12日的22764美元/天上涨了约154%。 中信期货研究所首席研究员武嘉璐告诉财联社记者，若霍尔木兹海峡关闭，油运运价将保持涨 势，且原油运费将易涨难跌，VLCC日租金或难 ...