禽类养殖： 随着天气逐渐转热，动物蛋白消费表现较为平淡，供给较多的背景下整体价格持续调整，目前板块景气度底部企稳。 近期价格持续偏弱的背景下，屠宰企业亏损日益增加，养殖户出栏积极性提升进一步对价格造成压力。近期黄羽鸡价 格出现较多调整，主要系下游需求偏弱导致，预计随着消费端的逐步好转，黄鸡价格有望跟随猪价回暖，行业可以取 得较好盈利。 牧业： 截至 9 月 19 日，我山东省活牛价格 27.24 元/公斤，环比-0.15%，同比+11.69%，目前逐步进入动物蛋白消费旺季， 短期受政策与天气扰动销售受阻，随着消费旺季到来牛肉价格有望稳步上涨；奶牛方面截至 9 月 19 日主产区合同内 平均收购价为 3.03 元/公斤，环比没有变化，同比-3.50%，散奶价格在备货旺季企稳回升，预计短期去化速度有所放 缓，但是在行业资金压力大&持续亏损的背景下，行业产能有望持续去化。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导， 原奶价格在明年有望企稳回升。肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景 气度有望稳健向上。 种植链： 投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.09.22-2025.09.26）农 ...

人民财讯9月24日电，中信证券研报表示，2024年以来能繁母牛大幅去化导致的牛只供应短缺是本轮牛 价上涨的主要推动，二季度以来活牛价格提升趋势明显，考虑到2026年国内肉牛供给存在下降压力，肉 牛价格仍有上涨空间。综合来看，继续看好肉牛原奶周期共振，龙头牧业企业利润改善可期。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the coexistence of low pig prices and policy adjustments, indicating that capacity reduction may gradually become evident in the swine breeding sector. The average price of live pigs was 12.69 CNY/kg as of September 19, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.66 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has declined, averaging 40.12% across 17 provinces, down 4.82 percentage points from August 31 [2][10][33]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattening bulls remained stable at 32.44 CNY/kg and 25.97 CNY/kg respectively, with year-to-date increases of 35% and 10%. The long-term outlook suggests tightening beef supply, with a potential price upturn expected in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - The poultry sector is experiencing weak performance, particularly in the white-feathered chicken market, where prices have decreased to 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks may further restrict upstream production capacity [4][41]. - In the agricultural products segment, soybean meal prices have faced downward pressure due to fluctuating market expectations regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations. As of September 19, soybean meal futures were priced at 3014 CNY/ton, down 65 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][55]. Summary by Sections Swine Breeding - Continued supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with a current average of 12.69 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has dropped to 40.12% [2][10]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased slightly to 128.45 kg, indicating a strong outflow from larger farms [20][33]. - The price of piglets has reached a yearly low, averaging 259 CNY/head, down 11% week-on-week [27][33]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after recent price increases, with expectations of tightening supply leading to a potential price upturn in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - Current prices for calves and fattening bulls are stable, reflecting a recovery trend in the market [35]. Poultry Sector - The white-feathered chicken market is underperforming, with prices at 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza situation may further impact production capacity [4][41]. - Egg prices have fluctuated, recently peaking at 8 CNY/kg before settling at 7.92 CNY/kg [4][41]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have been volatile, influenced by U.S.-China trade negotiations, with current prices at 3014 CNY/ton [4][55]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring weather conditions and trade policies affecting soybean imports [4][55].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Dairy Industry Industry Overview - The dairy sector is experiencing a rebound due to a decrease in feed costs, with companies like YouRan, New South Wood, and Gongji Dairy reporting a 10% year-on-year decline in sales costs, which has helped offset the impact of falling prices per ton. The gross profit margin for raw milk has increased by nearly 2 percentage points [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **YouRan Dairy Performance**: In the first half of 2025, YouRan's raw milk revenue grew approximately 8% to 8 billion yuan, driven by increased sales volume and the launch of three new farms. Sales costs decreased by 10%, and feed costs fell by 12%, leading to a gross margin increase of 2.4 percentage points. The reduction of heifer stock and an increase in the proportion of breeding cows also contributed to profit growth [1][5]. - **Modern Dairy Performance**: Modern Dairy has reduced its stock by about 20,000 heads to 18,700 heads by eliminating inefficient cows. Raw milk revenue remained stable at around 5 billion yuan, but the average selling price fell by 10% year-on-year. The solutions business revenue dropped by 23%. Despite a 23% increase in operating cash flow, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased due to biological asset losses [1][6][7]. - **Milk Price Trends**: In early September, milk prices slightly rebounded, ending a downward trend since April, indicating that demand is not as weak as expected. If milk prices stabilize in the fourth quarter, demand may stabilize next year. However, a significant reduction in breeding cow stock is anticipated due to mass culling, which may lead to a supply gap [1][8][10]. - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The dairy sector's stock structure has improved, with the proportion of breeding cows increasing by 2.3 percentage points to 53%. Major dairy companies have accelerated stock reduction, with Modern Dairy's heifer stock decreasing by over 20,000 heads [2][9]. - **Impact of Feed Prices**: The price of silage is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, which will affect overall milk prices. Unlike last year, silage prices have not further declined, which may impact the profitability of dairy farmers [12]. - **Meat Cycle Influence**: The meat cycle plays a crucial role, with companies like YouRan and Modern Dairy culling about 30% of their breeding cows annually. The income from culling has nearly doubled in the first half of 2025. The domestic beef supply gap is expected to continue until 2027 due to various market pressures [13]. - **International Market and Policy Changes**: The international market is seeing a decline in production from major exporters like Brazil and New Zealand due to drought and rising costs. Domestic policies are also tightening import regulations, which will increase transportation costs and affect the supply chain [14]. - **Profitability Outlook**: The reversal in milk prices and reduction in unit costs are expected to significantly enhance the profitability of dairy companies. If raw milk prices rebound and unit costs remain stable, leading companies could see gross margins improve by up to 10 percentage points [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Trends in Dairy Industry**: The current rebound in milk prices suggests better-than-expected demand. The supply side is also expected to perform well, with significant culling and replenishment of breeding cows. Valuation metrics indicate strong potential for profitability and growth in the dairy sector, with historical price-to-book ratios suggesting room for upward movement [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the emphasis on enhancing the professional capabilities of young financial cadres through practical learning activities in key economic sectors [3][4] - The study visit included significant sites such as the modern livestock industry, Huahu Airport hub, and the cross-border e-commerce industrial park, aimed at fostering a deeper understanding of modern industry and air economy development [3][4] - The leaders from the provincial and municipal finance departments acknowledged the progress made by the cross-border e-commerce industrial park and highlighted the collaborative support from the Ezhou Airport Economic Zone [4] Group 2 - The China (Ezhou) Cross-Border E-Commerce Industrial Park aims to strengthen its platform functions and service systems, integrating local industrial resources to promote the gathering and innovative development of cross-border e-commerce [5] - The park is positioned to provide solid support for Ezhou's accelerated construction of a new pattern of opening up to the outside world [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the agriculture sector, particularly in livestock and planting industries, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][24]. Core Insights - The agriculture sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.81% [2]. - The report highlights the stabilization of the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, with expectations of improved profitability in the medium term due to controlled production capacity [24]. - The poultry sector is experiencing pressure on prices but is expected to recover as consumer demand improves [39]. - The beef and dairy sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices and a potential new cycle in beef production [40]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with government support and potential improvements in crop yields due to external factors [46]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture index closed at 3103.24 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.81%, outperforming major indices [2][17]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average price of commodity pigs is 13.34 yuan/kg, down 3.12% week-on-week, with a slight increase in average weight at 128.32 kg/head [23][24]. - The report anticipates a short-term price stabilization but warns of potential downward pressure due to supply increases [24]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is 7.02 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 2.09% week-on-week [39]. - The report notes that the poultry sector is under pressure but expects recovery with improved consumer demand [39]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are 27.29 yuan/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the beef market [40]. - The report suggests that the dairy sector may see price stabilization in the second half of 2025 [40]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2302.86 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase, while wheat prices are supported by government policies [45][46]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if crop yields are affected by external factors [46]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with no significant changes reported in the past week [64]. - Aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, with various fish prices remaining stable or slightly increasing [64].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The beef import market is characterized by high concentration, dominated by South America and growing imports from Australia [4][18] - In the first half of 2025, China's beef imports are expected to decline in volume but increase in price, with a total import of 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% and an average price of 18.39 yuan per jin, an increase of 8.4% [4][40] - Import policies are tightening, with increased tariffs and stricter qualification requirements for importers, particularly affecting U.S. beef imports [4][59] Summary by Sections 1. Major Beef Import Countries - The top six countries accounted for over 93% of total beef imports in 2023-2025H1, with Brazil leading at 46%, followed by Argentina and Australia [4][14] - Australia has become the third-largest beef supplier to China, benefiting from the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement and U.S.-China trade tensions [4][26] 2. Changes in Beef Imports - In the first half of 2025, China's beef imports are projected to decrease in volume while prices rise, reflecting a tightening supply from overseas and an upgrade in domestic consumption [4][40] - The average price of imported beef has increased due to tightening global supply, reducing the price advantage of imported beef over domestic products [4][42] 3. Investment Recommendations - With the expected decline in import volumes and tightening import policies, domestic beef prices are likely to rise, benefiting high-quality livestock companies [4][59] - Companies such as YouRan MuYe, Modern MuYe, and China Shengmu are recommended for their potential to capitalize on rising beef prices [4][59]

Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices have sharply declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 1.81% to $64.402 per barrel and Brent crude oil falling by 1.65% to $67.998 per barrel [1] - OPEC+ is expected to consider increasing oil production at its upcoming meeting on Sunday [1] Group 2: Smartphone Market in Latin America - In Q2 2025, the smartphone market in Latin America saw a slight year-on-year increase of 2%, reaching 34.3 million units shipped [1] - Samsung led the market with 11 million units shipped, an 8% increase, with Galaxy A06 and A16 models accounting for over 60% of sales [1] - Xiaomi ranked second with 6.7 million units shipped, also an 8% increase, marking a historical high [1] - Motorola's shipments declined by 10% to 5.1 million units, while Honor and Transsion ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, with Honor increasing by 70% to 2.9 million units and Transsion decreasing by 23% to 2.4 million units [1] Group 3: Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic prices for gold jewelry have surpassed 1,050 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook reporting prices of 1,053 yuan per gram [1] - International gold prices have recently surged, reaching a historical high of $3,546.92 per ounce [1] Group 4: E-commerce and AI - Alibaba's international platform experienced a 33% year-on-year increase in transaction volume on the first day of its September procurement festival, attributed to the integration of AI capabilities [2] - The September procurement festival is a critical period for overseas buyers preparing for year-end shopping events [2] Group 5: Corporate Developments - ByteDance is reportedly implementing an option incentive plan for its Seed department, focusing on large model technology employees, with a total option amount potentially reaching millions [2] - Two companies under the name of Zong Fuli are set to be deregistered, with previous companies also applying for cancellation [2] - Shangdong West Dairy reported a 4.8% month-on-month increase in fresh milk production in August, totaling 2,540.33 tons, although down 7.27% year-on-year [6] - Yong'an Pharmaceutical announced that its actual controller and chairman, Chen Yong, has had his detention lifted, allowing him to resume normal duties [7] - Shengtun Mining plans to repurchase shares worth between 500 million and 600 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 11.82 yuan per share [8] - Zhangjiang Hi-Tech intends to publicly transfer 100% equity and related debts of Shanghai Jixin Rui Construction Technology Company, with a minimum total price of 151 million yuan [9] - Shankai Intelligent won a procurement project for metering devices with a bid of 13.318 million yuan [10] - Pudong Construction's subsidiaries won multiple major projects totaling 1.271 billion yuan [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Youran Dairy [1][16] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from an upcoming reversal in raw milk prices, entering a cycle of simultaneous growth in both volume and price [3][11][14] - The company has shown improved profitability, with a reduction in net losses and an increase in gross profit margin [10][12] - Cost control measures have been effective, leading to a significant rise in gross profit margin for the raw milk segment [12][13] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 10.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with a gross profit margin of 30.0% [10][11] - The net loss attributable to shareholders was reduced to RMB 297 million, reflecting a 10% year-on-year decrease in losses [10][11] - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 21.03 billion, RMB 23.16 billion, and RMB 25.55 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [15][16] Market Dynamics - The raw milk segment's revenue in H1 2025 was RMB 7.896 billion, with a sales volume increase of 15.8% year-on-year [11][14] - The current raw milk price has stabilized in the range of RMB 3.00 - 3.10 per kilogram, indicating a bottom consolidation phase [11][12] - The national dairy cattle inventory has decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, which is expected to support price recovery in the industry [14] Cost Management - Feeding costs decreased by 12% year-on-year to RMB 1.91 per kilogram, contributing to a lower unit cost of RMB 2.53 per kilogram [12][13] - The gross profit margin for the raw milk segment increased to 34.7%, demonstrating the company's operational efficiency [12][13] Capital Expenditure and Financial Resilience - Capital expenditures have declined, with significant reductions in spending on properties and biological assets [13] - The company reported a positive free cash flow and a decrease in interest-bearing liabilities to RMB 23.5 billion, enhancing financial resilience [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.07 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, with a net loss of 980 million yuan compared to a net loss of 210 million yuan in the same period last year. The cash EBITDA was 1.48 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, aligning with previous performance forecasts [1][3]. Revenue and Sales Performance - In H1 2025, raw milk revenue decreased by 0.8% to 5.07 billion yuan, with sales volume increasing by 10.3% but average price declining by 10.1% to 3.29 yuan/kg due to weak domestic demand and falling market prices [2][3]. - The company has improved its herd management by eliminating low-yield cows and focusing on enhancing the core herd ratio, resulting in a total herd size of 472,000 heads, up 6.2% year-on-year, and a lactating cow count of 256,000 heads, up 13.4% year-on-year [2]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The gross margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 26.4%, while the gross margin for the raw milk business decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 30.2% [3]. - The company experienced a fair value loss of biological assets amounting to 1.82 billion yuan, an increase in loss of 670 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased culling and declining raw milk prices [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in the dairy product industry by 2026, expecting a return to supply-demand balance, which could lead to rising raw milk prices and improved profitability for upstream dairy farms [1][3]. - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS of -0.17, 0.08, and 0.14 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, and sets a target price of 1.58 HKD based on a 26-year PE of 18x [3].