Macro Overview - In July, China's CPI and PPI data showed slight month-on-month improvement, while investment, consumption, exports, and credit data were weaker than expected. The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration, indicating continued expectations for policy easing [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains high expectations for a rate cut in September, supporting overall market risk appetite [1] Steel and Construction Materials - The market is currently in a clear consumption off-season, with MySteel reporting a decrease in rebar production and demand, leading to an increase in both factory and social inventories for two consecutive weeks [1] - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.407 million tons, a slight increase of 0.4 thousand tons week-on-week, while the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased but remains relatively high [1] - As the consumption peak season approaches, production and apparent demand are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in inventories [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - For copper, global total inventory increased slightly by about 0.17 million tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 125.6 thousand tons, remaining low for the same period. The processing fee for copper concentrate rose to -37.67 USD/ton, indicating a slight easing in supply tightness [2] - The overall judgment indicates marginal improvement in fundamentals, with domestic inventory reduction supporting spot prices, but macro uncertainties remain, leading to price fluctuations in the range of 77,000 to 81,000 RMB/ton [2] Lithium Carbonate - With the suspension of mining by Yichun Times, lithium carbonate prices have strengthened, and there are expectations of long-term production halts for downstream smelting enterprises after depleting their rights and inventory mines [3] - In August, downstream production demand improved significantly, with lithium iron phosphate increasing by 8.8% and ternary batteries by 9.2%, raising concerns about raw material stocking for September [3] - The overall judgment suggests that supply disruptions combined with demand improvements will maintain a strong price trend for lithium [3] Energy and Chemicals - The energy sector showed divergence, with international crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and chemicals experiencing wide fluctuations. The meeting between Trump and Putin did not result in agreements, but eased tensions, with no new sanctions on Russia expected in the short term [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, indicating a global oil surplus. The IEA report predicts a significant oversupply in the oil market by 2026, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [4] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced weak fluctuations, primarily due to a decline in safe-haven demand and the expectation of phased trade agreements. U.S. inflation data remains under pressure, with July PPI rising by 0.9%, the largest month-on-month increase in three years [5] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from around 40% to nearly 90%, with projections for three rate cuts within the year [5] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated, with long-term economic recession risks potentially driving a shift towards rate cuts and a restructuring of the global monetary system [5]

Core Insights - The silver price has declined to $38.00, ending a two-day rebound, influenced by a stronger US dollar [1] - July's Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows a significant rise in inflation, with both overall and core PPI figures exceeding expectations [2][4] Market Analysis - Silver is consolidating between resistance at $38.50 and support at $37.50, with momentum shifting to neutral [3] - On Thursday, silver prices fell nearly 1.30%, trading close to $38.00, as the stronger-than-expected PPI and stable initial jobless claims data supported the dollar [3] - The dollar index has rebounded above the psychological level of 98.00 after a two-week low, prompting traders to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [3] Inflation Data - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in July, marking the largest monthly gain since June 2022, significantly above the expected 0.2% [4] - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI reached 3.3%, surpassing the anticipated 2.5% and accelerating from the previous 2.4% [4] Technical Analysis - On the 4-hour chart, silver is trading between resistance at $38.75 and support at $37.55, with bearish pressure emerging near recent highs [7] - The price has retreated to the convergence of the 50-day moving average at $38.01 and the 100-day moving average at $37.96, which is a critical level [7] - If silver continues to fall below this area, it may expose the lower boundary of the range, while a rebound could maintain the consolidation momentum [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 45, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish state, while the MACD shows signs of flattening after a bullish crossover, suggesting potential waning upward momentum [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, suggesting short - selling silver on rallies [1]. - For base metals, copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing; alumina is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered; industrial silicon is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing; lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time; polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and tin is expected to be in an interval shock [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, steel is expected to be in a balanced supply - demand situation with obvious structural differentiation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; iron ore is expected to have a slightly stronger supply - demand situation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; coking coal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and short - selling the 2509 contract can be tried [5]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal is expected to follow the international cost - end in the medium term; corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and weaker; sugar futures can be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton can wait and see with a shock strategy; logs can wait and see; palm oil is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term; eggs are expected to be volatile and weaker; pork is expected to be in a shock adjustment [6][7][8]. - For energy and chemicals, LLDPE is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; PVC can wait and see; PX can wait and see, and PTA can look for short - term positive spread opportunities and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term; rubber is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term; glass can wait and see; PP is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; MEG can wait and see; crude oil can look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel; styrene is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; soda ash can wait and see [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, precious metals fluctuated. International gold prices rose 0.08% to $3398 per ounce, and international silver prices rose 0.09% to $38.325 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The White House may not increase taxes on 100 - ounce gold bars; a Fed official supports three interest rate cuts this year; the central bank increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months; domestic gold ETF funds flowed back, and gold and silver inventories in different regions changed [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on gold; short - sell silver on rallies [1]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated and were slightly stronger [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The US dollar index is expected to weaken; the supply of copper ore is still tight, and the scrap copper is in short supply; the global visible inventory increased by 27,000 tons, and the domestic consumption is in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,685 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The smelters maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly; the consumption has no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate is stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing [2]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of alumina closed at 3170 yuan/ton, down 2.19% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is stable; electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, focusing on the support at 3100 yuan; long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 8710 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price followed the rise of coking coal last week; a "counter - involution" initiative boosted market sentiment; the spot price declined slightly; the supply increased, and the demand of different downstream industries changed [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main LC2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, up 7.73% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A mining area of CATL stopped production; the supply - side production capacity recovered, and the demand in August was in the peak season; the inventory increased due to supply recovery [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to rise to 85,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in line with expectations; the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic; new brands were added for futures registration [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan [3]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, tin prices fluctuated and were weaker [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is weak; the inventory decreased by 330 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in an interval shock in the short term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3207 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of building materials is neutral, and the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates is stable; the futures discount of rebar widened, and the market sentiment cooled [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the 2510 contract, with a reference range of 3160 - 3240 yuan [5]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand is slightly stronger; the iron - water production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profit margin expanded; the supply is in line with the seasonal law, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal law [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan [5]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1213.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production decreased, and the steel mill profit margin narrowed; the fifth round of coke price increase was implemented; the inventory in different links was differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and try to short - sell the 2509 contract, with a reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term; the demand is dominated by South America, and the export demand of US soybeans is weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the international cost - end in the medium term, and focus on the weather in production areas and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of corn was weaker, and the spot price fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increased; the new - crop corn cost decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weaker [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [6]. - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: ICE raw sugar rose 0.43% last week, and Zhengzhou sugar fell 0.84% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Brazil increased, and the domestic processing sugar put pressure on the spot price; Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures rebounded last Friday, and international crude oil prices continued to fall [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton export contract reached 108.20% of the annual expected export volume; the domestic cotton futures rebounded, and the textile and clothing export decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a shock strategy in the range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logs** - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of logs closed at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.10% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market has expectations for the future; it is mainly based on the delivery logic in the short term, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose slightly last Friday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Malaysia increased seasonally, and the export decreased; it is expected to accumulate inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term, focusing on the production in production areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound, and the spot price rose slightly over the weekend [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The egg - laying rate of hens decreased seasonally, and the demand of downstream food factories increased seasonally; the supply is sufficient, and the cost decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [7]. - **Pork** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of pork was stronger, and the spot price rebounded over the weekend [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The consumption decreased seasonally, and the supply increased in August; the supply will continue to increase in the medium term [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be in a shock adjustment [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply increased, and the import is expected to decrease; the demand for agricultural films increased, and other demands were stable [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [9]. - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract closed at 4998, down 0.1% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak; the inventory accumulated [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [9]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: The PX price was 831 dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price was 4670 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX increased, and the supply of PTA decreased; the polyester load was stable, and the inventory pressure was relieved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for PX; look for short - term positive spread opportunities for PTA and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber** - **Market Performance**: The price of rubber fluctuated and was stronger last week, with the RU2601 contract up 2.57% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The raw material prices in Thailand were stable, and the downstream tire production and inventory situation changed [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term [10]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: The FG09 contract closed at 1065, up 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The production and sales of glass decreased, and the inventory accumulated; the downstream demand was general [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [10]. - **PP** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, and the demand in different downstream industries was differentiated [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [10]. - **MEG** - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4465 yuan/ton, and the basis was 75 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is at a high level, and the import is expected to be low; the polyester load is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell continuously last week due to economic concerns and geopolitical factors [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the US is stable; the refining profit is at a high level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel [10]. - **Styrene** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of styrene fluctuated slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly; the downstream demand is under pressure, and the export demand is a focus [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [11]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: The sa09 contract closed at 1242, down 0.4% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the inventory is high; the downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to reduce production [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [11].

Group 1 - Current spot silver trading is above $38.02, with an opening price of $37.82 and a current price of $38.06, reflecting a 0.58% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is $38.09, while the lowest is $37.81, indicating a bullish short-term trend for spot silver [1][4] - Spot silver has broken above the 10-day moving average, with a strong short-term outlook, and potential upward movement if it surpasses $38 [4] Group 2 - Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports due to continued purchases of Russian oil, raising some tariffs to 50% [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned China about potential significant tariffs if it continues to buy sanctioned Russian oil, highlighting selective enforcement of sanctions [3] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China aim to extend a 90-day tariff truce, with potential for tariffs to rise significantly if talks fail, increasing global trade tensions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year is increasing, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [7]. - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with crude oil leading the decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, the market's bets on the Fed's interest rate cut declined as the US Q2 GDP was better than expected, and the Fed's July meeting sent hawkish signals. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing concerns about the US economic downturn and the Fed's interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to US inflation data, the Jackson Hole meeting, and other events [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI was still above the critical point. The negotiation progress between the US and other economies needs to be monitored [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After event settlement, capital congestion is released. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With rising volatility, it is expected to move in a volatile manner [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are strengthening in a volatile manner. The Trump tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy should be monitored. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel**: After the meeting results are settled, attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as special - bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as overseas mine production and transportation, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand remain tight, and the fifth round of price increases has started. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has significantly corrected. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Attention should be paid to cost adjustments. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering raw - material costs and steel - procurement situations [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there are still concerns about supply and demand. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: The futures price has declined, and spot sales have started to weaken. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Freight has risen in the short - term, supporting the spot price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering soda - ash inventory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: A non - ferrous metal growth - stabilization plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply disturbances, domestic policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [8]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the alumina price is adjusting at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected ore production resumption and electrolytic - aluminum production resumption [8]. - **Aluminum**: The sentiment boost has slowed down, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Macro - sentiment persists, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - risks and unexpected zinc - ore supply recovery [8]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering supply - side disturbances and other factors [8]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed down, and the nickel price is moving in a wide - range volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected supply - side production cuts [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is strengthening in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering unexpected supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has corrected after rising. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and supply disturbances [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues. Attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and the cost side dominates the rhythm. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil prices have declined, and there is pressure from increased asphalt production. The futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, considering unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The possibility of a sharp decline in the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is increasing. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has weakened following crude oil. It is expected to decline, considering crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: There is a short - term differentiation between the inland and ports. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are below expectations. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering export policies and capacity elimination [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and inventory accumulation is expected in August. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering port inventory accumulation inflection points and device recovery [10]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream PTA maintenance schedules and gasoline profit seasonality [10]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down, and processing fees are still under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering mainstream device production cuts and polyester joint production cuts [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand improvement is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythms and开工 [10]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production reduction scale in August continues to exceed 20%, strengthening the support for processing fees. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering future bottle - chip production [10]. - **Propylene**: Weak propane suppresses it, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short - term, considering oil prices and domestic macro - factors [10]. - **PP**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the PP price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Plastic**: Macro - support has weakened, and the plastic price has declined in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is declining in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot pressure is emerging, and the caustic - soda price is moving weakly. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Attention should be paid to the palm oil production in Malaysia. Recently, oils and fats are expected to move in a volatile consolidation. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The market continues the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering US soybean weather and domestic demand [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering factors such as unexpected demand and weather [10]. - **Live Pigs**: Inventory pressure persists, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is stabilizing following commodities. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The driving factors are unclear, and the futures price is moving in a volatile manner. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Pulp**: It mainly follows the macro - trend. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price and the price difference between months have rebounded. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: Supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the sugar price is under pressure. It is expected to move in a volatile manner, considering imports [10]. - **Logs**: The bullish sentiment is strong, and the log futures price is rising with increasing positions. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner, considering shipment and dispatch volumes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged this year, with London spot silver prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 13-year high, leading to increased sales of silver-related products [1] - In a silver jewelry wholesale store in Shanghai, silver prices have risen by 30% since the beginning of the year, with monthly shipments exceeding 10,000 pieces, particularly favored are "small weight" and "new Chinese style" silver products [3] - In Yongxing County, Hunan, which accounts for 25% of the national silver output, a "cultural tourism + silver" consumption model has been developed, significantly boosting local silver consumption during the summer tourism season [5] Group 2 - A local silver sales company in Hunan reports daily foot traffic ranging from 500 to 800 people, with two main sales categories experiencing growth: investment products like silver ingots and bars, and decorative items such as electroplated gold and cloisonné, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% [9] - The price of silver has increased from over 7 yuan per gram to 8.7 yuan per gram, reflecting the rising costs impacting consumer purchasing behavior [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant collapse due to multiple factors, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a loss of investor confidence [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 29, the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver TD contract opened at 9168 yuan/kg and closed at 9181 yuan/kg, down 11 yuan from the previous day, marking a narrow trading range with a daily fluctuation of only 0.64%, the lowest of the month [1]. - The domestic and international price gap for silver widened to 120 yuan/kg, the highest premium in nearly a month, indicating that buying silver in Shanghai is nearly 4% more expensive than in New York [1]. - The silver sector saw a significant drop, with 90% of stocks in the sector declining, and the Tonghuashun silver concept index losing 1.36% in a single day [3]. Industry Impact - The global largest photovoltaic silver paste supplier, Heraeus, lowered its third-quarter shipment guidance, reducing capacity utilization from 85% to 70%, signaling a downturn in the photovoltaic industry [3]. - The domestic photovoltaic glass operating rate has fallen to 65%, with silver plating demand decreasing by 4.2%, leading to a reduction of 120 tons/month in industrial silver usage [3]. - The adoption of silver-coated copper technology in HJT cells has reduced silver consumption from 14 tons to 10 tons per GW, indicating a nearly 30% decrease in silver's role in the photovoltaic sector [3]. Investor Sentiment - The net asset value of the Guotou Ruijin silver futures ETF dropped by 1.54%, with a 3.2% reduction in scale, reflecting ongoing panic among retail investors [5]. - Speculative long positions in COMEX silver futures saw a significant reduction, with a decrease of 5200 contracts, indicating a loss of financial premium for silver [5]. External Factors - The strong rise of the US dollar index, which increased by 0.32% to 103.85, was exacerbated by a trade agreement announcement, leading to a market sell-off of safe-haven assets like silver [7]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surpassed 4.3%, creating a higher opportunity cost for holding silver, which has a volatility of 38% compared to the 5% of Treasury bonds [7]. Technical Indicators - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has signaled bearish trends, with the 5-day moving average crossing below the 10-day moving average, indicating a potential acceleration of selling pressure [8]. - Key support levels for domestic silver TD have shifted down to 9120 yuan, with a breach potentially triggering further selling from quantitative funds [8]. Options Market Activity - On July 29, the open interest for the "9200 yuan put option" surged by 30,000 contracts, indicating a strong bet on prices falling below 9000 yuan, further intensifying market pessimism [9].

Group 1 - The company, Hunan Silver (002716.SZ), announced its first share repurchase on July 30, 2025, through a centralized bidding method [1] - A total of 2,000,000 shares were repurchased, accounting for approximately 0.071% of the company's total share capital of 282,308.86 million shares [1] - The repurchase price was set at 4.65 yuan per share, with a total transaction amount of 9,300,000 yuan (excluding transaction fees) [1]