Group 1: Consumer Price Trends - Consumer prices remained stable in the first three quarters, with CPI decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the first half and the first quarter [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has shown a continuous recovery since March, rising to 1% in September, the highest in nearly 19 months [4] - Food prices saw a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, with fresh vegetable prices averaging a drop of 7.9% and pork prices shifting from an increase of 3.8% in the first half to a decrease of 2.9% in the first three quarters [2] Group 2: Energy Price Trends - Energy prices decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with gasoline prices dropping by 7.3% due to international oil price fluctuations [3] Group 3: Producer Price Trends - PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [5] - The domestic market's competitive order has improved, leading to a recovery in prices for certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, which saw a reduction in year-on-year price declines [5] Group 4: External Influences on Prices - International oil prices have generally trended downward, impacting domestic oil-related industry prices, with a 9.9% decline in the oil and gas extraction industry [6] - Conversely, international non-ferrous metal prices have risen, leading to a 5.6% year-on-year increase in domestic non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries [6] Group 5: High-Tech Industry Developments - The development of high-tech industries and effective macro policies have driven price increases in certain sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, which rose by 3.0% year-on-year [7] - Upgraded consumer demand has also contributed to price increases in sectors like arts and crafts manufacturing, which saw a 12.7% rise [7]

Core Insights - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, while remaining stable month-on-month for two consecutive months [1] Group 1: Producer Prices - The producer prices in the oil and gas extraction industry fell by 8.6% year-on-year and decreased by 2% month-on-month [1] - The prices in the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries dropped by 7.8% year-on-year and decreased by 0.8% month-on-month [1] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year price decline of 5.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1] - The chemical fiber manufacturing prices decreased by 7.9% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Purchasing Prices - In September, the industrial producer purchasing prices decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, while showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The prices for chemical raw materials fell by 5.5% year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [1] Group 3: Year-to-Date Averages - From January to September, the average industrial producer prices decreased by 2.8% compared to the same period last year, while the industrial producer purchasing prices fell by 3.2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [6] - The allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data Overview - On October 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the price data for September 2025. In September, CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year; core CPI was flat month - on - month and rose 1.0% year - on - year; PPI was flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year [3] 3.2 Resident - end Price Analysis 3.2.1 CPI Analysis - CPI rose from flat to an increase month - on - month. Affected by the decline in service and energy prices, the month - on - month increase was slightly lower than the average of September in the past five years. Food and tobacco prices rose 0.5% month - on - month, and other seven major categories of prices showed four increases, one flat, and two decreases [4] - CPI decreased year - on - year, mainly due to the carry - over effect. Food prices decreased 4.4% year - on - year, and energy prices decreased 2.7% year - on - year, which were the main factors affecting the year - on - year decline of CPI [4] 3.2.2 Core CPI Analysis - Core CPI rose 1.0% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month, and the increase returned to 1% for the first time since March 2024. The year - on - year increase in the prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy continued to expand [4] 3.3 Industrial - end Price Analysis 3.3.1 PPI Analysis - PPI was flat month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed for two consecutive months. The year - on - year decline in production materials prices was 2.4%, and the year - on - year decline in living materials prices was 1.7% [5] - The supply - demand structure improvement led to a significant stabilization of prices in some industries, such as coal, photovoltaic, and lithium - battery industries [5] 3.4 Market Performance - The market was still insensitive to fundamental data. After the price data was released on October 15 at 9:30, in a low - interest - rate environment, the market was more concerned about the trends of the equity and commodity markets. The bond market trading might still be affected by the performance of the equity market and the implementation of regulations related to fund redemption fees. The intraday trend of long - term yields showed an "N" shape [5]

金融期货早评 宏观：核心物价指数持续回升 【市场资讯】1）中国 9 月新增社融 3.53 万亿元，新增人民币贷款 1.29 万亿元，M2-M1 剪 刀差刷新年内低值；中国 9 月 CPI 同比降幅收窄至 0.3%，核心 CPI 近 19 个月首次回到 1%， PPI 同比降幅收窄至 2.3%。2）李强主持国务院第十六次专题学习：强化人工智能等数字技 术赋能，系统推进标准制定修订。3）美国法院暂时禁止特朗普在政府关门期间大规模裁员， 稍早白宫"管家"称关门期间政府裁员或超 1 万人。4）特朗普"钦点"美联储理事米兰：贸易 不确定性使降息更为迫切。5）美联储褐皮书：9 月初上次报告以来美国经济活动变化不大， 关税推高物价，消费者感受到冲击。 【核心逻辑】今年国庆假期人员流动表现亮眼，但消费端矛盾凸显，有效需求仍是当前核 心症结。后续经济修复需重点聚焦居民需求端，当前供需两端政策正有序推进，未来或有 增量政策出台以推动物价平稳回升。9 月出口增速录得 8.3%，增速较上月加快 3.9 个百分 点，但两年年均增速有所回落。总体来看，国内低基数以及新兴经济体需求支撑本月出口 增速，出口韧性相对较强。与此同时，反内卷政策 ...

导语 2025年9月，石油和化工行业景气指数为98.95，环比回升0.52个百分点，呈现温和回升态势。OPEC+增 产加之全球制造业疲软，原油市场供强需弱格局持续，原油价格延续弱势，石化行业成本压力持续趋 缓。此外，受国内"金九银十"旺季需求的拉动，石化行业整体生产热度及库存周转率有所改善，景气指 数呈现回升态势。国际方面，美联储降息释放流动性，逐步宽松的货币政策或为全球石化行业需求回暖 带来有力支撑。 热点聚焦 ●美联储降息25个基点，货币政策转向宽松 美东时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4%~4.25%，标志着其货币政策 转向宽松周期。有业内人士分析，降息将从两个维度影响石化行业：利率下调将使得美元指数走弱，降 低以美元计价的原油等商品的成本，刺激全球需求;宽松的货币政策有助于改善市场对全球经济增长的 预期，为石化行业需求的有效复苏创造有利条件。 ●原油延续供强需弱，价格弱势运行 供应端，9月OPEC+正式执行每日54.7万桶增产计划，沙特、俄罗斯原油出口量环比均增长，全球原油 供应趋于宽松。需求端，美国驾驶旺季结束令汽油消费回落，主要经济体的制造业PMI普遍低于荣枯 线， ...

宏观：国内出口韧性仍在 【市场资讯】1）中国 9 月以美元计价出口同比增长 8.3%，进口同比增 7.4%，均超预期， 工业机器人和风电出口增长强劲；9 月大豆、铁矿石进口创历史同期新高、稀土出口环比 降 31%、铜金属进口创年内新高。2）中国外交部回应美方扬言再加关税报复中方稀土管制： 这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，通过对话解决各自关切， 若美方一意孤行，中方也必将采取相应措施维护自身正当权益。3）中国交通运输部发布对 美船舶收取船舶特别港务费实施办法，10 月 14 日起施行，费用收取范围、标准和起讫时 间等将视情动态调整。 政策基调仍将以"托底"为主，避免经济出现大幅波动。国庆假期结束后，中美贸易摩擦升 级成为市场新的重心，全球资本市场遭遇"黑色星期五"。 从后续趋势判断，本次中美贸易 摩擦或不会重演 4 月态势，本次关税冲突更可能是双方的博弈行为。未来，短期内对中美 贸易和谈不宜抱有过高期待，后续关税进程的不确定性仍然相对较高。 人民币汇率：中美贸易摩擦升级，人民币汇率或区间持稳 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1329，较上一交易日下跌 9 ...

技术突破打破"采不出"魔咒 与传统石油不同，页岩油犹如渗透在岩石中的"骨髓油"，开采难度极大。此次大庆勘探团队通过水平井 钻井和多段压裂等关键技术，成功激活了地下页岩层中的油流，标志着中国已初步掌握低成本、规模化 开发页岩油的"中国方案"。 改写"石油枯竭"论，中国能源安全加装"稳压器" 作为全球最大原油进口国，中国对外依存度长期居高不下。大庆1.58亿吨页岩油的发现，将显著增强我 国能源自主保障能力。有专家预估，该资源若能实现规模化开发，未来可贡献年均百万吨级的石油产 量，相当于再造一个"中型油田"，为国家能源安全装上厚重的"压舱石"。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：海运经纪） 近日，从黑龙江大庆传来震撼消息——经过持续勘探攻关，技术人员在油田深部地层成功发现一个预测 地质储量达1.58亿吨的巨型页岩油田。这一发现不仅是东北老油田的"续命丹"，更是中国能源版图中 的"战略储备库"。 业内人士分析，1.58亿吨的储量若按当前国际油价折算，其潜在经济价值接近数千亿元人民币，足以支 撑建设数座百万吨级产能的页岩油基地。更关键的是，该资源位于大庆油田传统产区的深部，意味着我 国在非常规油气勘探技术上实现关键突破，老油田焕 ...

智通财经APP讯，中国海洋石油(00883)发布公告，于2025年4月9日至2025年10月8日期间，公司实际控 制人中国海油集团通过港股通交易系统累计增持公司港股股份2209.8万股，约占公司已发行股份总数的 0.05%，增持金额累计人民币3.32亿元(不含税费)。上述增持实施后，中国海油集团及其一致行动人直接 或间接持有公司合计395.3亿股股份，约占公司已发行股份总数的62.13%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced its interim dividend distribution plan for A-shares in 2025, which has been approved by relevant meetings [1] Group 1: Dividend Distribution - The proposed interim dividend is set at HKD 0.73 per share (tax included) for all shareholders, with A-shares being paid in RMB at CNY 0.66612 per share (tax included) [1] - The total cash dividend distribution amounts to CNY 1.992 billion (tax included) [1] Group 2: Key Dates - The record date for the dividend is October 16, 2025 [1] - The ex-dividend date and cash dividend payment date is October 17, 2025 [1]

Core Insights - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 46,929.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1] Group 1: Profit by Ownership Type - State-owned enterprises achieved a total profit of 15,156.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1] - Joint-stock enterprises reported a total profit of 34,931.9 billion yuan, marking a growth of 1.1% [1] - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises realized a total profit of 11,723.6 billion yuan, up by 0.9% [1] - Private enterprises recorded a total profit of 13,076.1 billion yuan, showing an increase of 3.3% [1] Group 2: Profit by Industry - The mining industry saw a total profit of 5,661.1 billion yuan, down by 30.6% year-on-year [1] - The manufacturing sector achieved a total profit of 35,233.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.4% [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry reported a total profit of 6,035.1 billion yuan, increasing by 9.4% [1] Group 3: Major Industry Profit Changes - The electricity and heat production and supply industry experienced a profit increase of 13.0% [2] - The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 12.7% [2] - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry saw an 11.8% increase [2] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.5% [2] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% [2] - The automotive manufacturing industry faced a slight decline of 0.3% [2] - The coal mining and washing industry suffered a significant profit drop of 53.6% [3]