科技领航，工业稳舵，消费承压 20250725 摘要 全球投资策略：美国仍是重点，占比 60%，欧洲 15%，日韩 7%，东 南亚 6%。中金公司研究覆盖 11 个国家，关注科技板块超预期机会，工 业板块受益于制造业回流，消费板块承压。美股受益于美元走弱，欧股 受欧元升值影响。 日美贸易新动向：日本对美投资 5,500 亿美元，90%利润归美国，投资 领域包括能源、半导体、AI 医药、钢铁等。预计 3-4 年内完成，虽利好 但细节模糊。日本鼓励进口美国产日本品牌汽车，增加美国大米进口， 挤压泰国和澳大利亚份额。 AI 算力需求激增：美股算力通信板块持续上涨，北美四大云厂商上修资 本开支预期，2025 年增长超 40%。AI 定制化芯片加速量产，以太网渗 透率提升，博通推出新款交换芯片。关注低成本低功耗 AI 定制化芯片设 计厂商业绩。 光模块市场前景广阔：800G 光模块放量，1.6T 即将放量。2025 年二 季度整体板块业绩预计保持较高增速，公司可能上修全年收入指引。AI 定制化芯片业绩环比增速提升，交换机及光模块有望进一步放量，估值 预计进一步上修。 Q&A 中金公司覆盖的海外标的有哪些？各行业和地域的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's reliance on the U.S. and its strategic miscalculations are leading to significant economic and geopolitical challenges, while the integration with China's economy presents a potential path for recovery [1][2][4][12] - Over 32,000 Japanese companies in China, with 78% stating they will not withdraw, indicate a strong commitment to the Chinese market, as seen in the actions of companies like Shiseido and Toyota [1] - Japan's automotive industry faces severe threats from both Chinese electric vehicle competition and U.S. tariffs, with a projected trade deficit with China reaching $42.4 billion in 2024 [2][6] Group 2 - Japan's economic structure is deteriorating, with a significant reliance on the U.S. leading to unfavorable trade agreements, exemplified by the humiliating terms of the U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations [6] - The Japanese government is increasing its defense budget, with plans to deploy advanced military capabilities in response to perceived threats from China, reflecting a shift in its defense strategy [9] - The potential for economic revitalization exists through deeper integration with East Asia, particularly through the RCEP and a proposed free trade agreement among China, Japan, and South Korea, which could unlock significant market opportunities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a mixed performance across various sectors in Q2 2025, with technology showing strong potential for exceeding expectations, while consumer sectors are experiencing deterioration. The financial sector is performing well, and industrial sectors are seeing varied results based on sub-segments [2][5][6]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The technology sector is expected to outperform in Q2 2025, driven by strong AI infrastructure demand and IT spending. The communication and software segments are likely to see significant growth, while the consumer electronics segment is expected to meet company guidance due to seasonal factors [3][8][13]. - AI infrastructure is projected to be a key growth driver, with companies in this space likely to revise their revenue guidance upwards for 2025 [8][13]. Group 2: Industrial Sector - The industrial sector is experiencing overall recovery, with the MSCI global capital goods index up 21% year-to-date. However, performance is mixed across sub-segments, with discrete automation showing improvement while process automation faces pressure due to high base effects [4][17]. - The U.S. power equipment demand remains strong, but major suppliers may not exceed expectations due to reliance on past order volumes [23][24]. Group 3: Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is facing challenges, particularly in discretionary spending, with notable declines in sectors like luxury goods and apparel. Essential goods are showing more resilience, but overall momentum remains weak [5][41][44]. - The automotive sector is seeing mixed results, with traditional automakers performing well in the U.S. and Europe, while electric vehicle penetration is under pressure [32][33]. Group 4: Financial Sector - The financial sector in the U.S. has recorded positive absolute and relative returns in the first half of 2025, driven by earnings improvements and regulatory easing. The outlook for the second half remains optimistic [6][70]. Group 5: Mining and Commodities - The mining sector, particularly gold and copper, has shown strong performance in Q2 2025, with gold prices reaching historical highs. The agricultural sector is stable, while the chemical sector has downgraded its outlook due to currency headwinds and weak demand [7][74][91]. Group 6: Regional Performance - U.S. companies are benefiting from a weaker dollar, while European firms face headwinds from currency fluctuations. Japanese companies are under pressure from weak domestic growth [2][5].

Group 1 - The World Health Organization warns that the Chikungunya virus is spreading globally, with 119 countries reporting cases and approximately 5.5 million people at risk of infection [1] - In Foshan, Guangdong Province, over 4,000 confirmed cases of Chikungunya have been reported, with Shunde District accounting for 3,627 cases, all of which are mild [1] Group 2 - Domestic animal health mRNA vaccines are entering a clinical boom, with recent approvals for clinical trials of mRNA vaccines for pig diarrhea and cat infectious peritonitis [2] - The rapid approval of mRNA vaccines reflects an accelerating trend in the application of mRNA technology in animal health, although the high development barriers pose risks for investors [2] Group 3 - Huaxi Bio issued a statement addressing false information circulating online, emphasizing the malicious nature of the claims and the background of the individual responsible for the misinformation [3] - The company's swift response highlights its commitment to managing reputation risks, especially in the sensitive beauty and medical aesthetics industry [3] Group 4 - Guangsheng Tang announced the successful enrollment of the first subject in the Phase III clinical trial for its innovative hepatitis B treatment, GST-HG141, marking a significant milestone in its development [4] - GST-HG141 is a novel hepatitis B core protein/capsid regulator and is the first of its kind with global intellectual property rights held by Guangsheng Tang [4]

第八届进博会迎百日冲刺： 让世界共享中国机遇 ◎记者 宋薇萍 操子怡 一年一度的进博会进入100天倒计时。上海证券报记者获悉，第八届进博会将继续秉持"新时代，共享未 来"的主题，于今年11月5日至10日在上海举办。目前，各项筹备工作进展顺利，已签约展览面积超过33 万平方米，170家企业和27家机构成为"全勤生"。 上海市商务委表示，进博会是一个开放的大平台，作为中国的经济中心城市和改革开放的前沿窗口，上 海以办好进博会为契机，坚定不移地扩大高水平对外开放，着力打造国内大循环的中心节点和国内国际 双循环的战略链接。 2018年，首届进博会在上海"四叶草"举办，七年来，进博会也催生了更多的本土创新实践。 汉高大中华区总裁安娜表示，借助进博会这一平台，汉高深度串联起产业链上下游资源，加速了全球创 新方案在本土的落地生根。本届进博会，汉高将进一步扩大参展规模，以150平方米的展台诚迎八方伙 伴。 雅培核心诊断业务中国副总裁谭敏杰表示，前几届进博会首秀的产品中，已有多款陆续落地中国市场， 切实惠及中国大众。未来雅培将持续为消费者、患者及医疗专业人士带来创新解决方案，并且充分探索 在前沿科技之上的本土实践。 欧莱雅集团 ...

New Consumption Highlights - WonderLab launched a new probiotic chewing gum product, combining probiotics and postbiotics with mint and green coffee complex [2][3] - MANNER collaborated with Shanghai Pudong Art Museum to introduce a new iced Americano inspired by Van Gogh's artwork [5] - Mengniu introduced a new live bacteria yogurt ice cream, made with at least 65% fresh milk and 100% live bacteria fermentation, recently awarded a silver prize for health innovation [3][5] - PepsiCo announced a new prebiotic soda, marking the first new flavor addition in 20 years, available in original and cherry vanilla [3] - Sun Valley launched a new fried product series, including flavors like crayfish and honey onion chicken sticks [3] - Asahi Group began trial sales of a yeast-based non-dairy milk product, LIKE MILK, which is free from 28 common allergens [7] - Xueji Chaohuo partnered with Yili to launch a new yogurt product made with fresh milk from Yili's farms [7] - Fi xXBody introduced a new air-puffed rice snack available in sea salt and barbecue beef flavors, containing a mix of ten grains and seeds [7] - Lee Kum Kee launched a low-sodium soy sauce with 25% less salt content, suitable for dipping and cooking [7] Industry Events - GODIVA announced a collaboration with LABUBU to launch a new ice cream series featuring various chocolate flavors [10] - Northeast retail giant Biyoute partnered with RELEX Solutions for supply chain planning [10] - Nike announced Karina from Aespa as a new brand ambassador, emphasizing diversity and female representation [10] - Keen launched its first trail running shoe, Seek, after two years of development [10] - Italian sportswear brand Hydrogen is entering the Chinese market, set to launch in Spring/Summer 2026 [10][13] - Taiwanese matcha brand "Yuqian Shangcha" opened its first store in Shanghai, focusing on high-end matcha products [10] - PAGEONE bookstore opened its first store in Jiangsu, continuing its expansion in China [10] - Popeyes announced the opening of five new stores in Shanghai [10] - Baosheng became the general agent for DYNAFIT in China, enhancing its outdoor brand portfolio [10] Investment and Financing Trends - Yangtuo Technology Inc., a maternal and infant e-commerce platform, applied for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [16] - Little Sesame, a US hummus brand, completed an $8.5 million Series A financing round [16] - Theo Health, a Scottish smart sportswear company, raised £1.2 million in funding [16] - Tianwei Food's major shareholder transferred 21.2 million shares, representing 1.99% of the company's total shares [18] - XPeng Huitian completed a $250 million Series B financing round to accelerate the development of its flying car [20] - Korean makeup brand Jungsaemmool received investment from CLSA Capital Partners, amounting to 500 million KRW (approximately 26 million RMB) [20] - Ulta Beauty is set to acquire UK beauty retailer Space NK, with the deal exceeding £300 million (approximately 2.9 billion RMB) [20] - Chanel acquired a 20% stake in Italian leather manufacturer Nuova Impala, strengthening its investment in the Italian supply chain [22] Food Industry Developments - Nongfu Spring's parent company launched "Birch Tree Juice," a 100% natural juice product sourced from high-quality birch trees [23] - Emerging health brand Ozzi introduced a natural drink aimed at controlling evening appetite [23] - if launched a limited edition jasmine rice-flavored coconut water to celebrate the 50th anniversary of China-Thailand diplomatic relations [24] - Qiaqia partnered with Taier to launch a new flavor of sunflower seeds inspired by sour fish soup [24] - UK candy brand Ruly introduced a caffeine-infused candy series [24] - Shiyan Studio launched new spicy flavors of crispy corn chips [24] - Yili's subsidiary Xu Jinhui collaborated with Haier Brothers to launch a new ice cream product [25] - Ganyuan introduced a Sam's Club exclusive freeze-dried hazelnut product [25] - Asahi launched Japan's first yeast-based milk product, LIKE MILK, with a 38% reduction in fat content [25] - Buzhu launched a new mint-flavored electrolyte water [25] Beauty Industry Updates - Chinese makeup brand Ju Duo plans to launch its first nourishing foundation line [28] - Tatcha is entering the Spanish market through Sephora [28] - Amorepacific's Ryo brand released a new scalp essence product [28] - Louis Vuitton introduced a new signature handbag, Express, in its Fall/Winter 2025 collection [28] - Aveda opened its first concept flagship store in China, located in Shanghai [32] - JD Health launched its first offline medical beauty clinic in Beijing [32] - Jaeger-LeCoultre released a new dating series watch featuring intricate floral designs [32] - Tiffany & Co. opened its largest flagship store in Asia in Tokyo [32] - Zhenyan launched a multi-dimensional protein repair system for skincare [32] - Onitsuka Tiger announced the launch of a new perfume series, marking its entry into the beauty sector [32]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is becoming more optimistic, with A-shares showing a five-week consecutive rise in weekly K-line performance, indicating a growing profit effect for investors [1] - Institutional funds have seen widespread net inflows, with public mutual funds exceeding estimated net redemptions in June, and private equity registrations surpassing 30 billion yuan, a 125% year-on-year increase [2] - Retail investors are also increasing their participation, with margin balances exceeding last year's peak, and active private equity positions remaining high at 82% [2] Group 2 - Historical data suggests that bull markets characterized by a divergence between fundamentals and liquidity typically last no more than four months, raising questions about the sustainability of the current market trend [3] - The current anti-involution narrative indicates potential investment opportunities in undervalued cyclical manufacturing sectors, particularly in construction materials, basic chemicals, steel, and transportation [4] - The upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference in 2025 is expected to catalyze growth in various sectors, with the STAR Market likely to experience a rebound due to supportive policies [5] Group 3 - Strategies for responding to the market surpassing 3600 points include balancing investments between Hong Kong and A-shares, with a focus on technology sectors and cyclical industries [6][7] - Investor sentiment is leaning towards a bullish outlook, with 55% of surveyed investors believing the market is in a bull phase, and a majority expecting the market to stabilize above 3600 points [9] - The technology sector remains a favored investment direction, with 46% of investors maintaining a focus on this area, while consumer sectors are also gaining attention [10]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Lotus from the East" aims to integrate traditional culture with modern beauty industry practices, emphasizing that culture is the lifeblood of brands and a key to industry upgrade [1][3][10] Group 1: Cultural Empowerment in the Beauty Industry - The beauty industry faces intensified homogenization, prompting the Yilian brand to adopt the value proposition of "more Chinese, more cultural, more Yilian" [3] - The first Brand Culture Communication Conference was held on July 25, focusing on the integration of traditional culture and modern beauty [3] - The "Chinese Culture Empowerment Fragrance and Cosmetics Brand Construction Project" was officially launched, with Yilian as the first practitioner, demonstrating the depth of cultural integration in the beauty sector [3][7] Group 2: Product Innovation and Cultural Resonance - Yilian launched the "Fuguang Qinzhu" product line, which combines modern technology with lotus culture, offering dual benefits of skin brightness and firmness [5] - Each product serves as a cultural carrier, reflecting both technological advancements and the embodiment of Eastern aesthetics [5] Group 3: Collaborative Ecosystem for Cultural Beauty Industry - The conference attracted over a hundred representatives from academia, industry, and distribution channels to discuss the value of cultural heritage and the rebirth of Eastern aesthetics [7] - A collaborative model involving brands, academia, and distributors is proposed to create a virtuous cycle of culture, industry, and market [7] Group 4: Immersive Cultural Experience - The conference featured an innovative dual-track format combining a cultural forum with a Song-style gathering, allowing participants to engage in traditional activities [9] - The immersive experience included poetry creation and interactive activities, enhancing the cultural connection with the brand [9] Group 5: Long-term Cultural Commitment - Yilian has demonstrated over twenty years that culture is not merely a marketing gimmick but the foundation for brand longevity [10] - The integration of modern skincare technology with traditional cultural elements positions Yilian to take a more prominent role on the global beauty stage [10]

Group 1 - The advantages and status of China's super market remain strong, with multinational companies leveraging China's manufacturing scale and complete industrial chain to expand into the Asia-Pacific and larger international markets [3][4] - The 9th China International Import Expo (CIIE) has already seen over 40 companies sign up as early exhibitors, with a total exhibition area of 30,000 square meters [1][10] - Companies like GE Healthcare, Novartis, Honeywell, Mitsubishi Electric, Jaguar Land Rover, L'Oreal, and HSBC are among the first exhibitors to commit to the 9th CIIE [1] Group 2 - Emerson views the CIIE as a crucial bridge for global companies to deepen their engagement with the Chinese market, having established a complete localized value chain in China [4] - Boston Scientific plans to showcase over 80 innovative minimally invasive products at the CIIE, with several making their debut in Asia and China [5][8] - Medtronic will present over 100 innovative medical technology products at the CIIE, emphasizing its commitment to local medical innovation and value chain development in China [9] Group 3 - International brands are increasingly recognizing opportunities in China's high-end market and demographic trends such as aging and declining birth rates [11] - New Zealand's New Zealand Dairy is set to launch new products targeting the elderly market at the CIIE, reflecting the growing demand for high-quality nutritional products [11] - The Argentina (Shanghai) Innovation Center, a product of the CIIE, has expanded its services to include a bonded display and trading center for Argentine goods, benefiting local SMEs [12] Group 4 - The D商集团 has participated in the CIIE for eight consecutive years, showcasing nearly 200 products from six countries, demonstrating the expo's spillover effects [13] - Shanghai is the largest import port for consumer goods in China, with significant growth in imports of dairy products and fruits in the first half of the year [13][14] - Cross-border e-commerce imports in Shanghai have seen substantial growth, with a 24.5% increase in import value in the first half of the year [14]

新京报贝壳财经讯（记者俞金旻 阎侠）7月25日，随着第八届进博会倒计时100天，2026年第九届中国 国际进口博览会招展正式启动。 贝壳财经记者在现场看到，第九届进博会招展启动仪式现场有40余家企业正式签约，成为2026年第九届 进博会首批参展商，签约展览面积3万平方米。GE医疗、诺华、霍尼韦尔、三菱电机、捷豹路虎、欧莱 雅、乐斯福、汇丰银行等20余家企业成为进博会首批九年"全勤生"。 签约现场，GE医疗中国影像业务副总裁侯薇向贝壳财经记者介绍，GE医疗连续八年参展进博会。"今 年，我们将携10余款全球首秀，中国首展新品集中亮相第八届进博会，持续拓展高质量医疗可及性。我 们将推动神经、肿瘤、心脑血管等重大疾病病灶的早期发现与精准诊疗。依托进博会平台，GE医疗持 续加速更多融合全球智慧的中国创新成果落地临床，服务健康中国。" 香港贸发局上海代表谭丹妮向贝壳财经记者表示，贸发局作为香港特别行政区的官方组展机构，是进博 会的"全勤生"。过去七年来，香港贸发局组织了近400家香港企业参展，累计参展面积近1万平方 米。"第八届进博会上，我们将在产品展馆新增直播间，让展商现场直播带货，助产品更快地渗透内地 市场。" 欧莱 ...