Core Insights - The report indicates that the global metal industry is still in a weak supply cycle, with exploration investments declining for the second consecutive year, down 3% to $12.5 billion in 2024 [3] - The magnesium industry is expected to enter a state of sustained tight balance, while the lithium industry is gradually improving its oversupply situation [2][11] Supply and Demand Analysis - Global mining supply growth is significantly constrained, with actual supply growth dropping from 6.35% to 2.22% in 2024, which is only 49.8% of the average growth rate over the past 30 years [4] - China's actual supply growth for ten non-ferrous metals is projected to remain within the fluctuation range observed since 2012, averaging 6.79% from 2023 to 2024 [4] Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the cyclical, growth, and hedging value of the metal industry, highlighting three main lines of focus: industrial metals with resilient supply-demand states, small metals with enhanced growth attributes, and precious metals with tight supply-demand fundamentals [7] - The proportion of holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector has significantly increased, reaching a historical high of 5.43% in Q1 2024, although it is expected to decline to 2.85% by Q4 2024 due to economic weakness and declining downstream demand [8] Magnesium Industry Insights - The magnesium industry is forming a new modern industrial cluster in China, which is expected to enhance scale efficiency and profitability, aligning with the development of the new energy industry [9] - Global magnesium production is projected to increase from 1.12 million tons in 2024 to 2 million tons by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% [9] Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with global lithium supply projected to grow from 1.231 million tons LCE in 2024 to 1.86 million tons LCE by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15% [11] - The demand for lithium is driven by the growth of the electric vehicle market and energy storage systems, with total lithium battery shipments expected to rise from 1,545 GWh in 2024 to 2,778 GWh by 2027 [11] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key companies in the magnesium sector, such as Baowu Magnesium and Xingyuan Zhuomai, and in the lithium sector, including Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Yongxing Materials, and Jinyinhai [10][12]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report suggests that the upcoming months of June and July will be critical for trade negotiations and economic observations, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China and EU trade talks, with a significant meeting scheduled on June 9 [5] - The U.S. economy shows resilience with no signs of recession as of May, and the market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have been slightly adjusted, indicating a cautious outlook for the next two months [6] Group 2: Market Performance - The stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.13% over the past week, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [6] - A total of 20 industries are currently in a weekly uptrend, suggesting a broad-based market recovery, with opportunities for investors to position themselves favorably [6] Group 3: Banking Sector - Several banks have announced dividend distributions, with 11 banks having completed their annual dividend distributions by early June, indicating a proactive approach to shareholder returns [21] - The average dividend yield for listed banks is reported at 4.14%, with state-owned banks yielding between 4.3% and 5%, reflecting stable profit growth and a favorable long-term investment outlook [22] Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal price has seen a significant decline from a peak of 1615 RMB/ton in October 2021 to approximately 618 RMB/ton as of June 5, 2025, marking a cumulative drop of 997 RMB/ton [28] - Historical analysis indicates that coal prices typically recover following government intervention or demand-side stimulus, suggesting that policy support will be crucial for future price stabilization [27][28] Group 5: Real Estate Sector - China Resources Vientiane Life is positioned as a leader in commercial operations, with plans to open 6 new shopping centers annually from 2025 to 2028, contributing to revenue growth [31] - The company has demonstrated resilience with a projected retail sales growth of 4.6% in 2024, outperforming the overall retail sector [31] Group 6: Pharmaceutical Sector - The report highlights the transformation of China's innovative drug sector from an importer to an exporter, with a significant increase in the commercialization of innovative drugs [10][11] - The domestic innovative drug market is expected to grow, with the proportion of innovative drugs in medical insurance expenditures rising to 3.19% in 2023, indicating a robust growth trajectory [10] Group 7: Technology Sector - Guokewai plans to acquire a 94.366% stake in Zhongxin Ningbo, which is expected to enhance its capabilities in high-end filters and MEMS, thereby expanding its market reach in smart devices and connected vehicles [42]

Strategy Overview - The market in June is expected to remain in a state of waiting for a breakthrough, with large-cap stocks likely to see a recovery. Domestic demand momentum is anticipated to improve marginally, although April's industrial profits showed a decline in both volume and price, with cost reductions being the main driver for profit growth. The PMI for May indicates a slight recovery in domestic production demand compared to April. It is expected that growth-stabilizing policies will be implemented alongside resilient external demand, continuing the trend of weak inventory replenishment in the second quarter. However, global trade policies remain uncertain, compounded by concerns over rising US debt rates, which may pressure market sentiment in the short term. In June, various growth-stabilizing policies are expected to accelerate, maintaining a volatile consolidation pattern in the market. Key areas to monitor for a breakthrough include overseas tariff developments and the implementation of domestic growth-stabilizing policies in June. [5][7] June Stock Recommendations - The June stock selection by Zhongyin Securities includes: - SF Express (Transportation) - Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Suochen Technology (Computers) [14][16] Performance Review of May Stock Selection - The stock selection for May outperformed the market, with notable performances from Jiemian Express-W and Yiwei Lithium Energy, both achieving over 10% monthly returns. The absolute return of the May stock selection was 3.87%, outperforming the market benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.02 percentage points. Three stocks achieved excess returns of over 5% compared to the CSI 300. [9] Company-Specific Insights SF Express (Transportation) - In Q1 2025, SF Express reported a net profit of 2.234 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth trend. The company achieved a total express volume of 3.56 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with revenue reaching 69.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year. The net profit increased by 16.87% year-on-year, driven by continuous improvement in product matrix and service competitiveness. The gross profit margin was 13.3%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points. [16][17] Anji Technology (Chemicals) - Anji Technology is expected to see rapid growth in revenue and net profit in 2024, driven by increased market coverage and new product introductions. The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 58.45%, up 2.64 percentage points year-on-year. The company’s polishing liquid revenue reached 1.545 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.73%. The global semiconductor CMP polishing materials market is expected to grow from 3.42 billion USD in 2024 to 3.62 billion USD in 2025. [19][20] Bairen Medical (Healthcare) - Bairen Medical reported rapid growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant increases in revenue across all three major business segments. The heart valve replacement and repair segment saw a year-on-year growth of 64.28%. The approval of the TAVR product in August 2024 is expected to drive further growth in 2025. [24][25] Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 4.309 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 116.08%. The travel agency and hotel management segments are expected to continue growing, particularly with the recovery of inbound tourism. [29][30] Qingdao Beer (Food and Beverage) - Qingdao Beer faced challenges in 2024 with a volume decline of 7.0% and a slight price increase of 0.5%. The company’s gross margin improved due to lower raw material costs, but net profit margin slightly decreased. Future growth is anticipated as restaurant demand recovers. [34][35] Suochen Technology (Computers) - Suochen Technology reported a revenue of 39 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.73%. The company is focusing on enhancing its CAE software capabilities and exploring AI applications in various fields. [38][39][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.93 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 64.36 million CNY in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.59%. However, it incurred a net loss of 83.58 million CNY [1][7]. - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue in 2024, with total revenue of 371 million CNY, down 24.31% year-on-year, and a net loss of 343 million CNY [1][7]. - The company is in a phase of technological investment and market expansion, with signs of improvement in cash flow and a reduction in losses in Q1 2025 [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue was 371 million CNY, with a net loss of 343 million CNY. The revenue from the core software business was 285 million CNY, down 28.5% year-on-year [3][7]. - **2025 Projections**: Expected total revenue for 2025 is 427 million CNY, with a projected net loss of 238 million CNY, indicating a reduction in losses by 30.7% compared to 2024 [3][7]. - **Future Growth**: The company anticipates revenue growth of 15.0% in 2025, 19.0% in 2026, and 19.1% in 2027, with corresponding net losses decreasing over the same period [3][7]. Business Strategy and Developments - The company is focusing on AI strategy upgrades, with initial breakthroughs in large model business, including the launch of the Sophon LLMOps platform and the TKH knowledge platform [7]. - The company secured nearly 50 million CNY in orders related to large model business, covering sectors such as finance, government, and energy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye 50 Index has shown strong performance, with significant increases in constituent stocks, indicating a positive trend in the technology and innovation sectors in China [1][3]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of May 29, 2025, the Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye 50 Index rose by 1.30%, with notable gains from stocks such as BGI Genomics (14.14%) and Baillie Gifford (5.54%) [1]. - The Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye Index ETF (588400) has increased by 12.58% over the past year, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Scale - The trading volume for the Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye Index ETF reached 11.5493 million yuan during the session, with an average daily trading volume of 28.096 million yuan over the past year [3]. - The latest scale of the Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye Index ETF stands at 1.696 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 12.3 million shares in the last three months, ranking it among the top three in comparable funds [3]. Group 3: Sector Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye 50 Index account for 56.66% of the index, including major players like CATL and SMIC [3]. - The ETF focuses on key emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, biomedicine, and software, making it an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on new productivity opportunities [3]. Group 4: Policy and Market Outlook - Huatai Securities emphasizes that technological innovation is crucial for China's economic transformation and modernization, with increasing policies supporting investment in this sector since the release of the "National Nine Articles" in April 2024 [3]. - According to Everbright Securities, the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend despite external policy challenges, suggesting ongoing opportunities for growth [4].

Group 1 - Recent fund flows show a shift, with broad-based ETFs experiencing redemptions while technology-themed ETFs attract significant inflows, leading to multiple ETFs reaching historical highs in share volume [1] - As of May 15, 2023, notable net subscriptions include 3.102 billion CNY for Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF, 1.376 billion CNY for Guolian An Semiconductor ETF, and 1.104 billion CNY for Harvest SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip ETF, among others [2] - Several technology-themed ETFs are expected to expand significantly, with new funds being launched, including E Fund Digital Economy ETF and ICBC Credit Suisse Digital Economy ETF [2][3] Group 2 - Institutions are actively conducting research in the technology sector, with over 3,000 institutional inquiries in the computer software and semiconductor industries, and more than 2,600 in electronic equipment manufacturing [4] - Notable institutions involved in recent research include Xing Shi Investment and Freshwater Spring Investment, focusing on companies like Anji Technology and Weir Shares [4] - Institutions are particularly interested in companies' profitability and global expansion strategies, as seen in inquiries about gross margin improvements and overseas investment plans [4] Group 3 - The technology sector is viewed as a key investment focus for public funds, with multiple fund companies collaborating to launch a series of products, including both active equity funds and passive index funds [3] - The current technological breakthroughs in areas such as large models, smart vehicles, and robotics are attributed to a significant influx of engineering talent in China, marking the beginning of a new cycle of technological innovation [5] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in AI applications, particularly in smart driving, AI-integrated internet giants, AI hardware, and computing power, as the A-share market shows signs of structural opportunities [5]

2025 年 5 月 15 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】美国通胀继续回落，关税冲击尚待显现——2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数据点评 4 月美国通胀低于预期，较上月继续回落。其中，家具家电、医疗保健用品、娱乐用 品价格环比小幅上涨，而权重较高的服装、二手车价格环比下跌，指向关税影响尚待 进一步显现。随着中美互降关税，美国通胀风险已明显弱化，当前关税税率上调大致 带动 1.0 个百分点的通胀上行。关税下调也意味着美国衰退风险随之下降，美联储更 有耐心继续等待，以观察经济的实质性变化，短期内降息紧迫性不强。 【债券】预判 5 月信贷明显好于 4 月——2025 年 5 月 14 日利率债观察 在美国大幅加征关税的不利条件下，4 月份经调整后的信贷同比增速（注：而且是保 守估计的）依然能保持在 8%左右。5 月份出台了大量的支持性政策，美大幅降低了 对华商品的进口税率。显然，5 月份信贷增长情况很可能明显好于 4 月。 行业研究 | | 外汇市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 中间价 | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.1956 | -0.05 | | 欧 ...

Group 1 - Over 170 stocks received initial attention from institutions this week, with 56 institutions issuing a total of 1551 "buy" ratings covering 877 stocks, a significant increase compared to the pre-holiday period [2][8] - Among the stocks, 10 with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan received focus from five or more institutions, indicating strong institutional interest in large-cap stocks [2][5] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw the highest number of stocks, with 100 stocks under coverage, followed by the electronics and power equipment sectors, each with over 50 stocks [3] - Recent policies from multiple government departments aim to enhance the digital transformation of the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on coordinated development and smart regulation, which is expected to drive investment in innovative drugs [3] Group 3 - Notable stocks receiving significant attention include Mindray Medical and Kweichow Moutai, each receiving "buy" ratings from nine institutions, while other companies like Shenguan Medical and Shanxi Fenjiu received seven ratings [4][5] - Kweichow Moutai is projected to achieve over 5 billion yuan in overseas revenue for 2024, with a target price set at 2205.63 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of nearly 40% [5] Group 4 - Companies like Gree Electric and Sailun Tire have announced share buyback plans, with Gree's buyback amounting to a minimum of 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in their stock performance [11][12] - Sailun Tire's net profit for 2024 is expected to increase by over 30%, indicating strong financial performance despite a recent stock price decline [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows positive momentum with the Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye 50 Index experiencing a slight increase, indicating a favorable environment for technology and innovation sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 7, 2025, the Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye 50 Index rose by 0.13%, with notable gains from stocks such as Maiwei Co. (up 8.68%) and Ningde Times (up 2.27%) [1]. - The Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye Index ETF (588400) also saw an increase of 0.19%, marking its third consecutive rise [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Scale - The Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye Index ETF recorded a turnover of 0.95% during the trading session, with a total transaction value of 16.67 million yuan [3]. - The latest scale of the Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye Index ETF reached 1.749 billion yuan, achieving a one-month high [3]. Group 3: Sector Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Kechuang Chuangye 50 Index, as of April 30, 2025, include Ningde Times, SMIC, and Huichuan Technology, collectively accounting for 56.66% of the index [3]. Group 4: Policy Support and Market Outlook - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized full support for the Central Huijin Investment Company to play a stabilizing role, indicating a clearer narrative for technology assets in the A-share market [3]. - Shanghai Securities suggests a positive outlook for technology core assets, highlighting opportunities in sectors affected by tariff impacts and companies with unexpectedly strong quarterly results [3].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 5 月 7 日 | 5 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 603181.SH | 皇马科技 | | 300014.SZ | 亿纬锂能 | | 688198.SH | 佰仁医疗 | | 000524.SZ | 岭南控股 | | 600519.SH | 贵州茅台 | | 9660.HK | 地平线机器人-W | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | | 301236.SZ | 软通动力 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250507 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】4 月 PMI 数据点评*陈琦 朱启兵。外部环境对制造企业生产 意愿有所影响。4 月高技术制造业、设备制造业海外需求下滑较为明显。4 月建筑业生产经营延续活跃。部分原材料加工业及纺织工业景气度处于扩 张区间。 【医药生物】键凯科技*刘恩阳。公司公布 24 年年报及 25 年一季报。24 年 全年实现营业收入 2.27 亿元，同比下滑 22.26%，归母净利润为 0.30 亿元， 同比下滑 74.2 ...