Group 1 - Gold has performed exceptionally well this year, rising 44% to a record $3,784 per ounce, while other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium have also seen significant increases of 53%, 60%, and 33% respectively [1] - Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," has only increased by over 20% this year, reaching $113,000, indicating a lag behind precious metals [1][3] - Central banks have been diversifying their strategies by increasing gold reserves, with a total global gold reserve of approximately 36,000 tons, as reported by the European Central Bank [1][2] Group 2 - Over the past three years, global central banks have added more than 1,000 tons of gold annually, more than double the average of the previous decade [2] - Bitcoin has not yet entered central bank balance sheets, limiting its role as a reserve asset, and ongoing sell-offs from early wallets have suppressed its price increase [3] - Deutsche Bank predicts that by 2030, both gold and Bitcoin may appear on central bank balance sheets simultaneously [4]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached over $43.50 per ounce, marking the highest level since August 2011, driven by supply-demand imbalances and shifts in investment preferences [1] Group 1: Silver Price Dynamics - Silver's price increase is attributed to a significant supply-demand gap, estimated at approximately 4,000 tons, where global silver production is less than consumption [5] - The gold-silver ratio has attracted funds from gold to silver, as the ratio reached historical highs, indicating that silver is undervalued [5] - The historical average of the gold-silver ratio is between 60-80, currently sitting between 80-90, suggesting that the ratio remains relatively high [7] Group 2: Silver Demand Composition - According to the World Silver Association, the demand for silver in 2024 is projected to be distributed as follows: 58% for industrial use, 18% for jewelry, and 16% for investment [3]

周一晚间，美元指数收跌。宽松预期与避险情绪共同推动贵金属价格强势攀升。但需要注意的是美联储 多位官员发表偏鹰派言论，博斯蒂克、穆萨莱姆及哈玛克均表示应对降息保持谨慎，认为进一步宽松的 空间有限，甚至强调若通胀风险上升将不支持继续降息，目前仅有米兰认为中性利率可能接近2%水 平。这些表态一定程度上削弱了市场对短期继续大幅降息的预期，可能令实际利率和美元短期承压有 限，从而对金银价格上行构成抑制。 不过，法国等多国宣布正式承认巴勒斯坦国，或加剧中东局势不确定性，潜在避险情绪仍可能为贵金属 价格提供部分支撑。 【交易思路】 摘要周一，因投资者重新思考美联储的降息和未来计划，现货黄金日内大涨超60美元，并将历史新高刷 新至3740美元上方，最终收涨1.67%，收报3746.63美元/盎司；现货白银续创2011年5月来新高，最终收 涨2.38%，报44.02美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周一，因投资者重新思考美联储的降息和未来计划，现货黄金日内大涨超60美元，并将历史新高刷新至 3740美元上方，最终收涨1.67%，收报3746.63美元/盎司；现货白银续创2011年5月来新高，最终收涨 2.38%，报44.02美元/盎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are significantly increasing their holdings in gold ETFs, driven by rising international gold prices and favorable market conditions despite recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that tempered expectations for rapid monetary easing [1][3]. Group 1: Gold ETF Demand - Last Friday, global gold ETF holdings saw the fastest increase in three years, with a single-day surge of nearly 27 tons, providing new momentum for gold prices [1]. - According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold ETF demand from January to June increased by 397 tons, marking the largest demand inflow for the same period since 2020 [4]. - As of the end of June, the total gold held in ETFs reached 3,615.9 tons, the highest since August 2022, approaching the historical peak of 3,915 tons set five years ago [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts from Montreal Bank Capital Markets noted that despite a brief price pullback following the Fed's rate cut, the continued inflow of ETF funds has created new upward momentum for gold prices [3]. - The current low-interest-rate environment is favorable for gold, a non-yielding asset, and the ongoing geopolitical tensions are supporting safe-haven demand [3]. - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, expect further increases in gold prices, indicating a positive outlook for the commodity in the fourth quarter [3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Spot gold prices reached a new all-time high of $3,759.16 per ounce during Asian trading on Tuesday, reflecting strong demand from investment managers and traders seeking to hedge against risks in U.S. equities [4]. - Analysts from Heraeus Precious Metals noted that gold prices have surged over 10% in the past five weeks, suggesting a potential for price consolidation or slight pullback in the short term due to overbought conditions [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant rise in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3748.99 per ounce, driven by strong expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][3][4] - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily fueled by the market's anticipation of additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, following a 25 basis point cut last week, marking the beginning of a new easing cycle [3][4] - The weakening of the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping 0.36%, has made gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thereby increasing global demand for gold [4] Group 2 - The bullish sentiment in the gold market reflects a combination of expectations for monetary policy easing, geopolitical risk aversion, and asset allocation shifts [4] - The upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the core PCE inflation data will be critical indicators for the short-term movement of gold prices, with potential for increased volatility [4] - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong as long as the global easing cycle continues and geopolitical uncertainties persist [4]

Core Viewpoint - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, precious metals have surged, with silver rising by 3.81% and gold increasing over 2%, surpassing the 3700 mark and setting a new historical high [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Silver has shown a significant increase of 3.81% [1] - Gold has risen over 2%, reaching above 3700, marking a new historical high [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks have increased their gold purchases, adding over 400 tons in the first half of this year, following three consecutive years of buying over 1000 tons [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The trend of rising gold prices is supported by a shift towards de-globalization, the U.S. initiating trade wars, and a gradual decline in the credibility of the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's re-initiation of the interest rate cut cycle is expected to further weaken the dollar, opening up more upward potential for gold prices [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Silver, being a smaller market commodity, is expected to show greater elasticity, with its price likely to exceed that of gold in the later stages of a gold bull market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals and economic data have led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices rose to $3,631, nearing historical highs, with a strong upward trend supported by a 94% probability of rate cuts [1]. - Silver prices surged to $41.77, breaking the previous resistance level of $41.67, confirming an upward trend with higher highs and higher lows [1][3]. - Platinum remained stable at $1,383, supported by the 50-day moving average, but lagged behind gold and silver due to a lack of strong catalysts [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data has shown a "dovish" trend, with significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls and a deflationary state in the Producer Price Index (PPI), creating favorable conditions for the Fed to initiate a rate cut [2][4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation, while initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, signaling a cooling job market [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The expectation of rate cuts has created a dual benefit for precious metals by suppressing the dollar and real interest rates, enhancing their attractiveness as investment assets [3]. - The ongoing discussions regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership and potential reforms to reduce its balance sheet are contributing to market uncertainty, which may further support precious metal prices [4].

Group 1 - The core inflation data for August shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating that inflation has not worsened but remains sticky [3] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, signaling a slowdown in the labor market [3] - The economic slowdown further strengthens expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with potential for three cumulative cuts by the end of the year [3] Group 2 - The recent discussions by Treasury Secretary Besant with potential Federal Reserve chair candidates indicate a broader selection process beyond the previously publicized list [3] - Besant is advocating for a "gradual reduction of the balance sheet" as a core reform for the Federal Reserve, aiming to reduce its substantial bond holdings and lessen economic intervention [3] - The combination of pressure for rate cuts from the White House and leadership transition risks enhances market expectations for continued easing policies, supporting precious metal prices [3] Group 3 - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long-term upward trend, with short-term gold prices projected to fluctuate between $3,550 and $3,730 per ounce [4] - The medium-term outlook for gold suggests a potential new high near $3,800 per ounce [4] - Silver prices are closely monitored around the $43 per ounce resistance level, with a breakthrough potentially targeting $45 per ounce [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive [3][49]. - Since the beginning of this year, silver has been strongly favored. Although the silver price has risen by over 40% since the start of the year, it is still at a low level in terms of both absolute and relative prices compared to gold and copper, and has greater price elasticity, so its price trend is more promising [3][49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Review - In August 2025, precious metal prices were strong. Weak US non - farm payroll data at the beginning of August and Trump's actions triggered recession concerns and increased rate - cut expectations, driving up precious metal prices. However, strong PPI data in July weakened the September rate - cut expectation, pressuring precious metal prices. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 20th boosted precious metal prices again. As of the end of August, the monthly increase of the COMEX gold futures main contract was 5.2%, and that of the COMEX silver futures main contract was 10.76%. In September, Trump's intensified intervention and weak non - farm data continued to strengthen rate - cut expectations and push up precious metal prices. The depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in August made the domestic precious metal price increase weaker than that of the international market [8]. II. Analysis of Precious Metals Price Influencing Factors 1. Intensification of the Fed's Independence Crisis - Since Trump's second term in January 2025, he has repeatedly attacked Fed Chairman Powell for slow rate - cuts and threatened to dismiss him to offset the negative impact of tariff policies and reduce government debt interest. Although it is difficult to dismiss the Fed Chairman according to the current legal framework, the list of potential candidates has been narrowed to three. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August shifted from hawkish to dovish, possibly indicating the beginning of the end of the Fed's independence. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 25th was the first direct dismissal by a president since the Fed's establishment in 1913, intensifying market concerns about the Fed's independence, lowering long - term US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and pushing up gold prices [15][16]. 2. Weak Non - farm Payrolls Strengthen Rate - cut Expectations - The August non - farm payroll data continued to deteriorate, with only 22,000 new jobs added, far lower than the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the hourly wage growth rate was lower than before, all supporting the Fed's rate - cut. Other employment - related data also indicated a cooling labor market. Although the current evidence for a US economic recession is insufficient, Trump's greater control over the Fed provides political motivation for rate - cuts. Considering inflation data, the Fed may choose to cut rates by 25bp continuously, with 2 - 3 rate cuts this year [17][18]. III. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 1. Changes in the Gold - Silver Ratio - In August, the silver price outperformed the gold price, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio dropped from 90.4 to around 85. Recently, with the gold price hitting a new high, the ratio rebounded slightly. It is expected that the silver price will continue to catch up, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to decline [22]. 2. Changes in Futures - Spot and Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads - In the first half of August, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated narrowly, and it depreciated in late August, narrowing the spread between Shanghai gold futures and COMEX gold futures. The spread between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures was within the normal range, and the domestic futures - spot spreads were also normal [24]. 3. Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought over 1000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In the second quarter of 2025, central bank gold - buying slowed down, with a net purchase of 166 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease. However, the first - half - year purchase was above the five - year average and over 40% higher than the ten - year average. China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month in August. It is expected that central banks will continue to buy gold in 2025, supporting gold demand [27][28]. 4. Changes in Precious Metals Inventories - Since December last year, due to the expectation of Trump's possible import tariffs on gold, a large amount of gold was transported to New York, increasing COMEX gold inventories. As of September 5, 2025, COMEX gold inventories were 38.96 million ounces (about 1212 tons), a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 129% year - on - year increase. COMEX silver inventories were 518.37 million ounces (about 16123 tons), a 2.38% month - on - month increase and a 69% year - on - year increase. In August, the silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased slightly [29][31]. 5. Analysis of Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In the past three years, the positive correlation between the holdings of international gold and silver ETFs and precious metal prices has weakened. Recently, as the gold price hit new highs, funds flowed into gold and silver ETFs. In the second quarter of 2025, gold ETF investment was a key driver of gold demand. As of September 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR reached 982 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - ishares increased to 15194 tons [37][38]. 6. Changes in CFTC Positions - The non - commercial positions in COMEX represent the trend of speculative funds and usually lead the precious metal price trend. Since mid - August, the non - commercial net long positions in silver futures have increased rapidly, corresponding to the strong rise in the silver price. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures were 249,530 contracts, and those in COMEX silver futures were 55,923 contracts. The inflow of speculative funds directly promoted the precious metal price increase at the end of August and the beginning of September [43]. IV. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - Trump's intervention in the Fed and weak US employment data have strengthened the market's rate - cut expectations. Multiple positive factors such as capital inflows into ETFs, central bank gold - buying, and the recovery of physical demand support precious metal prices. Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive. Silver is more favored due to its relatively low price and high price elasticity [49].

Summary of Global Precious Metals Comment Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **precious metals industry**, particularly **gold** and **silver**. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has seen a resurgence in interest as of September, reaching record highs, with silver also surpassing the $40 mark [1] - The recent rally in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, concerns about the Fed's independence, lower real yields, and a weakening US dollar [1][2] - Despite previous price consolidations, investor sentiment towards gold remains positive, with many waiting for optimal entry points [1] Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The anticipation of Fed rate cuts has intensified, driven by weakening economic data and uncertainties surrounding tariffs [2] - Concerns regarding the Fed's credibility amid political pressures could act as a bullish catalyst for gold, reinforcing its status as a hedge against systemic risks [3] - The inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar has provided additional support for gold prices [3] Market Positioning and Future Outlook - Current market positioning in gold remains low, suggesting potential for further price increases as investor allocations grow [4] - The report anticipates that gold could reach between $3600 and $3700, while silver may rise to $44 or $45 [4] - Historical trends indicate that gold typically performs well in the fourth quarter, coinciding with increased physical demand during wedding and festival seasons in India and China [25] Risks and Considerations - There is a caution against shorting gold at current highs due to the prevailing macroeconomic environment, which is characterized by uncertainty [4] - A potential pullback in gold prices could occur if US economic data exceeds expectations, leading to a recalibration of Fed rate expectations [24] - The report suggests that while a significant correction is unlikely, support levels around $3450 and $3400 are expected to hold [24] Strategic Importance of Gold - Gold's role as a strategic asset is emphasized, particularly in times of high macroeconomic and geopolitical risks [33] - The report predicts that core allocations to gold will increase as more investors recognize its value in enhancing portfolio resilience [33] - Official sector purchases are expected to remain strong, with net buying projected at around 900-950 tonnes for the year [33] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is bullish for gold and silver, with expectations of continued price increases driven by a broadening investor base and seasonal demand factors [32][33]