1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,700 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the overall production of secondary lead is also facing challenges. On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. In terms of trading strategies, considering the weak supply - demand pattern, shorting volatility can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,865 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 1.35%, and the closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,940 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.44%. The price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,096.5 with a weekly increase of 3.02% [7] - LME lead basis was - 45.87, a decrease of 1.31 compared to the previous week; the premium of bonded lead remained unchanged at 95; the spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead increased by 20 to 45; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead increased by 75 to - 50 [7] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 335 to 275; the cost of near - month to first - continuous inter - period arbitrage was 59.77 [7] - The spot import profit and loss of lead was - 658.93, a decrease of 76.80 compared to the previous week; the 3M import profit and loss of SHFE lead was - 623.95, a decrease of 127.41 compared to the previous week [7] - **Inventory** - SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 1,452 to 29,418; SHFE total lead inventory increased by 1,233 to 30,584; social inventory increased by 1,600 to 36,100; LME lead inventory decreased by 9,600 to 205,575, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 4.00% to 9.06% [7] - **Transaction and Position** - The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 122,859, an increase of 85,430 compared to the previous week, and the position was 56,480, a decrease of 8,714 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,642, an increase of 5,448 compared to the previous week, and the position was 142,000, an increase of 6,194 compared to the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate** - The import volume, actual consumption, and domestic output of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The inventory of lead concentrate at Lianyungang also fluctuated over time [24] - The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate showed certain price ranges. The smelting profit of lead concentrate processing also changed over time [26][27] - The operating rate of lead concentrate showed different levels in different years [28] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead** - The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead, as well as the production and operating rate of secondary lead, all showed different trends in different years [30] - The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver, as well as the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China, also had their own trends [32][33][34] - **Waste Battery and Secondary Lead** - The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead all changed over time [35][36][37] - **Import and Export** - The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots showed different trends in different years [39] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Battery and Terminal - **Battery** - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, as well as the export volume of batteries, showed different trends in different years [43] - **Consumption and Terminal** - The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles, and the monthly total output of motorcycles showed different trends in different years [45]

下游接货积极性略有回升 但铅价暂时仍难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-29，LME铅现货升水为-48.77美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16775元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至45.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16825元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至16850元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-100元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-29，沪铅主力合约开于17000元/吨，收于17185元/吨，较前一交易日变化190元/吨，全天交易 日成交87949手，较前一交易日变化34036手，全天交易日持仓59088手，手较前一交易日变化-424手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17370元/吨，最低点达到16960元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于17375 ...

现货成交偏淡 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-28，LME铅现货升水为-47.43美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16775 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元 /吨至16825元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-50元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-100元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10325元 /吨。 期货方面：2026-01-28，沪铅主力合约开于17000元/吨，收于16995元/吨，较前一交易日变化-5元/吨，全天交易日 成交53913手，较前一交易日变化-8210手，全天交易日持仓59512手，手较前一交易日变化-1288手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17080元/吨，最低点达到16915元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于173 ...

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅下跌，沪铅主力合约2603开盘报17115元，高点17165元，低点16945 元，结算价17035元，收盘17000元/吨，跌135元，跌幅0.79%。伦铅最新价报2035.5美元，跌0.5美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报16910-17010元/吨，均价16960元，跌100元；广东现货 市场1#铅报16835-16935元/吨，均价16885元，跌125元。今日现货铅市场报价在16825-17010元/吨之 间，对比沪期铅2602合约贴水110-升水75元/吨，沪期铅2603合约贴水160-升水25元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，铅价急跌迎岁末 宏微观共振压估值，铅价承压的首要因素是 宏观情绪的转变。美国最新经济数据展现出超预期韧性，导致市场对美联储提前降息的乐观预期迅速降 温，美债收益率随之走高，这直接压制了包括铅在内的金属资产估值。同时，全球资金风险偏好出现结 构性分化，对新兴市场资产的谨慎态度加剧了有色金属板块的整体资金流出压力。今日长江现货市场铅 价震荡回调。 供应压力：冶炼复产与库存累积 供应端的宽松是价格下跌的基本面 ...

沪铅震荡偏弱延续 基本面变化 加工费：2025年12月铅精矿进口量约14.9万吨，环比增加35.8%，同比增加24.63%。铅矿进口量连续两个月环比走高，不过国内 冬季铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张延续，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步回落。2月国内月度加工200- 300元/吨，月度环比下降50元/吨；进口月度加工费位-160--140美元/干吨，月度环比下降5美元/干吨。现货加工费方面，国内 铅矿周度加工费为200-300元/吨，周度环比下降50元/吨；进口周度加工费为-160--140美元/干吨，周度环比下降5美元/干吨。 供应：SMM显示：2025年12月原生铅产量为33.27万吨，环比增加1.56%，同比增加1.56%，当月产量高于预期；2025年12月再生 精铅产量为26.84万吨，环比减少9.35%，同比增加0.83%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂开工率66.85%，周环比下滑0.19%。河南地 区开工稳定，个别小厂产量边际波动；湖南地区此前粗铅检修的冶炼厂生产恢复后电解铅产量小幅提产至稳定生产。另一冶炼 厂粗铅检修后电解铅产量周度下滑，但暂未完全停产；云南地区冶炼厂生产维持稳定； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market lacks driving forces, and prices are expected to remain volatile. The total inventory of lead in five regions has increased, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The domestic lead spot has been in a premium state. [3][5] - On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the spot import processing fee for lead concentrates with a grade of 60% continues to decline. However, primary lead smelting enterprises in Jiangxi and other places are gradually resuming production, which is expected to increase the supply of primary lead. In the secondary lead sector, enterprise profits are compressed, and the production of smelters in Anhui, Shandong, Henan and other places is limited. At the same time, secondary lead smelting enterprises in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places will have an early holiday, and the overall output of secondary lead is under pressure. [7] - On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. Against the background of weak consumption and increasing inventory of new batteries, the Spring Festival holiday of lead - acid battery enterprises will be longer than in previous years, and the holiday time will be earlier. [7] - Regarding trading strategies, in the unilateral strategy, the lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the lead price will generally remain volatile, and short - volatility operations can be considered. In terms of the spread strategy, the domestic lead inventory has increased while the overseas inventory is under pressure. Continuous attention can be paid to the opportunity of long domestic and short overseas arbitrage. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 17,095 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.17%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,145 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 2,016.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.03%. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 44.56 dollars/ton last Friday, a decrease of 0.38 dollars/ton compared with the previous Friday. The bonded area lead premium was 95 dollars/ton last Friday, an increase of 5 dollars/ton compared with the previous Friday. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium was 0 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous Friday. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead was - 125 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous Friday. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 60 yuan/ton last Friday, unchanged from the previous Friday. [8] - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warrant inventory last week was 27,966 tons, an increase of 702 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE lead inventory was 29,351 tons, a decrease of 7,693 tons compared with the previous week. The social inventory was 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 215,175 tons, an increase of 8,825 tons compared with the previous week, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 13.06%, a decrease of 8.11% compared with the previous week. [8] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the main SHFE lead contract last Friday was 37,429 lots, a decrease of 83,984 lots compared with the previous week. The position last week was 65,194 lots, a decrease of 17,474 lots compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 last Friday was 5,194 lots, a decrease of 5,330 lots compared with the previous week. The position last week was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots compared with the previous week. [8] Lead Supply: Lead Concentrates, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrates**: The import volume, actual consumption, and production of lead concentrates have shown fluctuations in previous years. The lead concentrate inventory in Lianyungang has also fluctuated. The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrates have changed, and the smelting profit of lead concentrates (processing) has also shown different trends over the years. The operating rate of lead concentrate mines has also fluctuated. [25][27][28] - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead, secondary lead, and the combined production of primary and secondary lead have shown different trends in previous years. The weekly operating rate of primary lead and the operating rate of secondary lead have also fluctuated. The by - product output of silver, the price of 1 silver, and the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China have also changed over the years. [31][32][33] - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises has fluctuated. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead have also changed over the years. [35][36][37] - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of lead ingots in China, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots have all shown different trends in previous years. [39] Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - **Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries has fluctuated over the years. The monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers have also changed. The export volume of batteries has shown different trends in previous years. [43] - **Consumption and End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead has shown different trends in previous years. The monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles has also fluctuated. [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently has a weak supply - demand situation. The overall rise of the non - ferrous sector previously drove up the lead price, but it declined with the general correction of non - ferrous metals in the second half of the week. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On January 21, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.32/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton. SMM Henan lead changed by -125 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin lead changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 21, 2026, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,120 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume was 46,316 lots, an increase of 9,580 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 69,351 lots, a decrease of 4,839 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,035 yuan/ton and 17,160 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,100 yuan/ton and closed at 17,300 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 125 yuan/ton the previous day. In Henan, some smelters sold mainly through long - term contracts, and traders offered discounts of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract, with a small amount of large - discount goods sold. In Hunan, smelters' discount quotes narrowed, and transactions improved slightly. Traders offered discounts of 75 - 50 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. Although downstream purchasing intention improved at lower prices, downstream orders showed no obvious improvement and market transactions were still light [2] Inventory - On January 21, 2026, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of January 21, the LME lead inventory was 222,650 tons, a decrease of 2,925 tons from the previous day [3] Strategy - For enterprises with hedging needs, they can conduct buying and selling hedging operations at the edges of the 16,900 - 17,800 yuan/ton range according to their own needs. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is mostly in the red, with lead futures showing a downward trend, reaching a low of 17,170.00 yuan/ton and a decline of approximately 2.33% [1] - The current market sentiment indicates a shift towards strong supply and weak demand, with primary lead production recovering as smelters in Hunan and Jiangxi resume operations [1] - The consumption side is experiencing a traditional off-season, with demand for lead-acid batteries not meeting expectations, leading to high inventory levels [1] Group 2 - The lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the supply of waste batteries is tight, providing some support for lead prices [2] - The overall production of primary lead is stable, while the recovery of recycled lead is limited due to environmental controls in some regions [2] - Battery sales are poor, leading to an accumulation of finished battery inventory, which may result in battery manufacturers reducing their operating rates [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The macro - environment was positive, with loose monetary expectations at home and abroad and geopolitical conflicts increasing the premium of resource - end products, which led to a general rise in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. [4] - Fundamentally, the supply of domestic lead ore raw materials remained tight, and the processing fee was at a low level. In the electrolytic lead sector, there were both production cuts and restarts in January, with a slight expected increase in production. In the recycled lead sector, raw material constraints still existed, and the production was expected to decline slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, consumption expectations were under pressure, and social inventories were expected to rise slowly. [4] - Overall, the macro - environment was positive, and non - ferrous metals rotated up. The supply - demand situation was weak on both sides, and the lead price was expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector. However, due to the strong cost support, the downside space of the lead price was limited. [4][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,355 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2046.5 dollars/ton to 2037.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.48 to 8.58, an increase of 0.10. [5] - The SHFE inventory increased from 30,111 tons to 37,044 tons, an increase of 6,933 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 222,725 tons to 206,350 tons, a decrease of 16,375 tons; the social inventory increased from 1.96 million tons to 3.25 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons; the spot premium decreased from - 130 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. [5] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated widely at a high level, closing at 17,475 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.69%. LME lead first declined and then rose, closing at 2038 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.42%. [6] - In the spot market, the supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, resulting in sluggish trading. The inventory of recycled lead smelters was high, and some lead smelting enterprises would limit production due to smog warnings, which was expected to ease the shipping pressure of holders. [6] Industry News - On January 16, 2026, the domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining unchanged from the previous week. [9] - Starting from April 14, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) will no longer accept the warehousing registration of certain zinc and lead brands. [9] - On January 16, 2026, Fuyang, Anhui issued an orange warning, and local recycled lead smelters would reduce production by 50%. [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of SHFE and LME lead, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead price spreads, waste battery prices, enterprise profits, production volumes, and social inventories, which help to comprehensively analyze the lead market. [10][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][29][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is increasing, with the apparent supply of domestic lead ingots reaching 72.39 million tons in November 2025, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is marginally warming up, but the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Currently, the lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds is intensifying. Although the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - loose cycle, the subsequent trend of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.37% at 17,473 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME 3S lead price fell 8 to $2,075/ton, with a total position of 174,800 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [11] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5% and a month - on - month increase of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.2% [15] - **Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.89% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 274,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.09% and a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 2,973,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.62% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.32% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: The recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 262.0% and a month - on - month increase of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.4%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in November was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77%. In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%. From January to November, the total net lead - containing export of batteries was 19,680,580 units, and the cumulative net lead - containing export of batteries decreased by 10.47% year - on - year [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly affected the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [71] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased, the investment fund in LME lead turned net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds in terms of positions intensified [77]