铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：库存低位，支撑价格 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17100-17800元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 国内铅现货从平水转为升水 0 5 10 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：需求减弱，限制价格上涨 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17300-17800元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水缩窄至平水 -200 -150 -100 -5 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 铅价走高之际 炼厂让渡升贴水以求出货 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-24，LME铅现货升水为-42.30美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化150元/吨至17025 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至20.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化125 元/吨至17100元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化175元/吨至17075元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化175元/吨至17050元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10250 元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-24，沪铅主力合约开于17030元/吨，收于17225元/吨，较前一交易日变化230元/吨，全天交易 日成交68022手，较前一交易日变化23412手，全天交易日持仓56538手，手较前一交易日变化-1548手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17305元/吨，最低点达 ...

——原料刚性约束与存量需求韧性的双重共振 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 观点概要 摘要： 展望2026年，全球铅市将由紧平衡转向累库周期，但国内受再生铅原料瓶颈制约，将走出独立的成本防 御行情，呈现外弱内强特征。预计沪铅主力运行区间16200-18200元/吨左右，伦铅1950-2200美元/吨附 近。 供给侧分化显著：原生铅受副产品高利润驱动将维持高产，贡献主要增量；而再生铅受制于财税合规及 反向开票政策，废电瓶有效供给面临10%-15%折损，迫使产量增长停滞。原料端的隐性紧缩将确立再生铅成 本线为行业定价的坚实底座。 需求端步入存量主导时代，增速预计维持1.5%。两轮车新国标限重放宽至63kg将助推铅酸份额回升， 有效对冲锂电替代。全球10.2万吨的过剩量主要累积于海外，国内仅约3万吨微幅过剩，意味着国内显性库存 仍将维持低位，出口窗口难以开启。 南华期货有色金属铅2026年度展望 3.1 矿端：转向紧平衡 预测区间：沪铅16200-18200元/吨附近，伦铅1950至2200美元/吨左右 风险提示：宏观衰退，关税影响超预期，供给端扰 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 冶炼厂观望惜售 铅价低位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-17，LME铅现货升水为-48.16美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16750 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至45.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至16850元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16775元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-150元/吨至16675元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10025元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-17，沪铅主力合约开于16825元/吨，收于16735元/吨，较前一交易日变化-90元/吨，全天交易日 成交40173手，较前一交易日变化-506手，全天交易日持仓26930手，手较前一交易日变化-2802手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16855元/吨，最低点达到16680元/吨。 ...

消息面 自2025年12月15日起，安徽阜阳市因大气扩散条件持续转差，污染物累积，发布重污染天气橙色预警，并于当日20时启动Ⅱ级应急响应，要求落 实减排措施。为配合环境管控，当地多家大型再生铅冶炼企业随即宣布将其再生铅锭产量削减50%，此减产状态将维持至应急响应解除为止。 摩根士丹利表示，预计2026年铅的平均价格将略高于每吨2000美元。 机构观点 五矿期货： 铅矿库存基本持平，原生铅开工率边际下滑。铅废料库存小幅下滑，再生铅开工率延续上行。下游蓄企开工率边际上行。国内铅锭社会库存维持 相对低位，上游工厂库存边际下行，但沪铅月差维持低位。有色金属情绪退潮，沪铅持仓低位，预计铅价短期在宽幅区间内偏弱运行。 西南期货： 部分原生铅企业继续检修，受原料紧张和利润压力，再生铅企业减产意愿增强。铅酸蓄电池市场进入传统淡季，终端消费疲软，电动自行车及汽 车电池补库有限。原生铅库存低位去化提供一定的托底作用。上周，原生铅社会库存下降3200吨。供应收缩和低库存限制下行空间，同时，弱需 求和潜在的进口压力牵制反弹空间。多空因素交织，铅价或延续震荡行情。 12月16日，LME铅库存录得25.25万吨，与上一日持平；最近一周， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are concerned about the US non - farm payrolls, with weak risk appetite, while the domestic economic data continues to be weak, and the A - share market is expected to be weak in the short term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [2][3] - Precious metals may have a technical correction, but platinum and palladium are expected to rise; copper prices will fluctuate in the short term; aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level; alumina's upward space is limited; casting aluminum will fluctuate at a high level; zinc prices are adjusting and waiting for macro - guidance; lead prices will fluctuate weakly; tin prices will continue to adjust at a high level; industrial silicon prices are expected to rebound; steel prices will fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices will be under pressure; coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate weakly; soybean and rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate; palm oil prices will fluctuate in a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials' remarks affect market expectations, Japan's manufacturing confidence supports central bank rate hikes, and before important data releases, overseas market risk appetite is weak [2] - Domestic: November economic data is cold, with production showing resilience and demand cooling further. The A - share market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metals futures generally rose on Monday, with platinum hitting the daily limit in the domestic market. There is a risk of a technical correction in gold and silver, while platinum and palladium are expected to rise. Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and retail data [4][5] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated at a high level. With a weak US dollar and various macro and industrial factors, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract fell, and LME aluminum was flat. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data, and with inventory accumulation and seasonal demand slowdown, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract rose. Although the price has rebounded, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum, and the upward space is limited [10] 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the casting aluminum alloy futures main contract fell. Affected by raw materials and environmental protection, both supply and demand are weakening, but with cost support, it will fluctuate at a high level [11] 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the approach of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is cautious. In the long - term, overseas supply will improve, and currently, the supply pressure is decreasing, so zinc prices will adjust in the short term [12] 3.8 Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the improvement of overseas supply in the medium - long term and the increase in inventory, the support of low inventory is weakening, but the downward space is limited [13][14] 3.9 Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract adjusted downward. With the release of multiple economic data and the increase in Indonesian tin exports, the macro and micro support for tin prices is weakening, and it will continue to adjust at a high level [15] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon rebounded at a low level. Supported by cost and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [16][17] 3.11 Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. With weak terminal demand data, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [18] 3.12 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. With the increase in supply and weak demand, iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [19] 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Monday, double - coking futures fluctuated weakly. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [20][21] 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, soybean and rapeseed meal contracts fluctuated. With positive South American crop prospects and concerns about US soybean exports, the domestic market will maintain a short - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main contracts will fluctuate [22][23] 3.15 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil contracts fell. With weak export demand and expected inventory increase, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. Pay attention to the support at the lower limit of the previous low range [24][26] 3.16 Metal Trading Data - Provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts in the main domestic and international markets on December 15, 2025 [27] 3.17 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the prices, inventories, and other data of various metals on December 15, 2025, with those on December 12, 2025, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [28][31][33]

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：再生增加，需求谨慎，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17400元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 ◆ 原生铅冶炼厂检修恢复，再生铅利润较高，产量快速增加，消费端年底冲刺产量，预计铅价将 保持震荡走势。供应方面，原生铅产量增加，品位60%的铅精矿现货进口加工费持续处于低位； 但湖南、安徽等地的原生铅冶炼企业检修将结束，将增加原生铅供应。再生铅方面，铅价回升 带动利润走高，促使再生铅企业维持较高开工率。同时，山东等地再生铅企业常规检修后将恢 复生产并补充原材料，预计将带动再生铅产量进一步增加。 10 15 20 25 国内铅现货持续升水 0 5 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03 ...

张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023261 有色情绪退潮， 炼厂维持较高开工 铅周报 从业资格号：F03120988 2025/12/13 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 原生供给 05 供需库存 03 再生供给 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：上周五沪铅指数收跌0.14%至17134元/吨，单边交易总持仓7.6万手。截至上周五下午15：00，伦铅3S较前日同期跌4.5至 1984.5美元/吨，总持仓17.01万手。SMM1#铅锭均价17025元/吨，再生精铅均价17000元/吨，精废价差25元/吨，废电动车电池均价 9925元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据钢联数据，国内社会库存小幅累库0.13万吨至2.29万吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得1.67万吨，内盘原生基差-140元/吨， 连续合约-连一合约价差-75元/吨。海外结构：LME铅锭库存录得23.55万吨，LME铅锭注销仓单录得11万吨。外盘cash-3S合约基差- 48.25美元/吨，3-15价差-99.2美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly trends of non - ferrous metals, analyzing the price movements, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks of various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It suggests different trading strategies based on each metal's characteristics, like holding copper long - positions with certain stop - profit measures, being cautious about high - position risks in tin, etc. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Price and Market**: Last week, both domestic and foreign copper prices hit record highs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. The spot signal shows that the inflection point of copper price is not obvious. [1] - **Supply**: In December, there is a certain production rush expectation, with an estimated monthly output increase of 5.57 tons. Domestic smelters may choose to reduce the production of 106 primary copper concentrates during equipment shutdown. [1] - **Outlook**: The LME copper price is at a high level, and the spot premium has decreased. The market is mainly trading based on expectations. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices may pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the copper price at a record high may correct. Long - positions can be held along the M5 moving average, and partial active profit - taking can be considered. [1] 3.2 Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, with no long - term production reduction. In December and January, 50,000 tons and 110,000 tons of exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out respectively. [1] - **Demand**: The downstream aluminum processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% month - on - month. In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 14.8% year - on - year but increased by 66,800 tons month - on - month. [1] - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 985,000 tons, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 7000 tons to 121,000 tons. The inventory is higher than in previous years. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China have widened. [1] - **Outlook**: Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of silver and copper prices has driven up aluminum prices. The medium - term fluctuating and strengthening trend continues, but in the short term, market sentiment may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see. [1] 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Market**: Last week, SHFE zinc rose 3.92% and strongly broke through the annual line, following the external market trend. The internal - external price difference is oscillating at a high level. [1] - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased to 55,400 tons. Overseas smelters' production resumption expectations are insufficient. The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and domestic smelter maintenance is expanding. The zinc ingot export window is open, and downstream demand is stable. [1] - **Demand**: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the expected investment in underground pipeline network construction and renovation is about 5 trillion, and galvanized pipe consumption is expected to be strong in 2026. [1] - **Outlook**: Supported by tight ore supply, SHFE zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound. After breaking through the annual line, it is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark. [1] 3.4 Lead - **Price and Market**: Last week, the expectation of smelter production reduction and increased downstream bargain - hunting purchases supported the market rebound. The SHFE lead main contract rose 1.7%, and LME lead rebounded to the 20 - day moving average and then faced pressure. [1] - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 243,000 tons, still relatively high. The supply of lead concentrates is in short supply, and the recycling volume of waste batteries has decreased. The market supply of lead ingots is tight. [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery production increased by 1.07 percentage points to 24.46% week - on - week. The consumer market has both positive and negative factors, with insufficient incremental expectations. [1] - **Outlook**: Constrained by cost and consumption, SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton. There may be short - term price increases due to capital movements. [1] 3.5 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: SHFE nickel rebounded and traded sideways at a high level, with light market trading and relatively low positions. SHFE stainless steel also rebounded, but overall trading was sluggish. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In the context of repeated macro - expectations, the willingness of both long and short sides to compete has decreased. Although stainless steel mills have frequently announced production cuts, the actual production reduction in November was insufficient. Downstream demand confidence is lacking. [1] - **Inventory**: Pure nickel inventory increased by 1500 tons to 57,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 997,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: Given high - level inventory and volatile macro - factors, short - selling at high levels is more reasonable. [1] 3.6 Tin - **Price and Market**: Funds have pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and SHFE tin weighted price reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The short - term price fluctuations have increased. [1] - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin exports in November decreased. The situation in the Congo is uncertain. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December. The real - world supply of tin ore is tight, and the cost of recycled materials is fluctuating. [1] - **Demand**: There are no bright spots in traditional fields, and the demand highlight is high - end semiconductor products. Domestic spot trading has deepened, and social inventory has increased. [1] - **Outlook**: In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, the probability of an increase in supply is high, and the recovery speed may be faster than demand. Attention should be paid to high - position risks. [1] 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: Last week, lithium carbonate futures adjusted, with active short - selling in the market. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has slightly corrected. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall demand remains strong. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to perform well. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand. The overall inventory of downstream battery and material factories is flat or slightly reduced. [1] - **Inventory**: The total market inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 113,600 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3600 tons to 21,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1700 tons to 44,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply from a high level, with large market differences. The fundamentals are generally strong, and the short - side is relatively tight. [1] 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The main contract of industrial silicon S12601 showed a weak downward trend in the range of 8900 - 9030 yuan/ton this week. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang has dropped to 9000 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply**: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to slightly decline to 396,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%. Some enterprises plan to slightly reduce the supply volume. [1] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 800 tons to 558,000 tons, with an increase in both general and delivery warehouses. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. The inventory reduction at the end of the year is still under pressure. If the actual production reduction of local factories is limited, the price may further decline. [1] 3.9 Polysilicon - **Price**: Last week, the main contract of polysilicon reached a high of 59,200 yuan/ton due to the expectation of warehouse receipts. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress bullish sentiment. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The output in November was 114,600 tons, lower than expected. In December, it is expected to slightly decline. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises have reduced production. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 291,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may still be strong after a brief negative impact if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected. [1]