新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-23 现货成交改善情况有限 铅价暂难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-22，LME铅现货升水为-46.63美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16900 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至16950元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16875元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至16950元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-100元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10050元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10175元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10375元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-22，沪铅主力合约开于17100元/吨，收于17140元/吨，较前一交易日变化25元/吨，全天交易日 成交36011手，较前一交易日变化-10305手，全天交易日持仓65743手，手较前一交易日变化-3608手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17155元/吨，最低点达到1703 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The overall rise of the non - ferrous sector previously drove the lead price up, but it fell back with the general correction of non - ferrous metal prices in the second half of the week. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On January 20, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.13/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate waste price difference remained unchanged at -100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,250 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,736 lots, a decrease of 34,227 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 74,190 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,275 yuan/ton and a low of 17,180 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,120 yuan/ton and closed at 17,055 yuan/ton, a 1.02% decrease from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, with the overall spot market being dull [2] Inventory - On January 20, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 19, the LME lead inventory was 225,575 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - For enterprises with hedging needs, they can conduct buying and selling hedging operations at the edges of the price range of 16,900 - 17,800 yuan/ton according to their own needs. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

下游观望情绪仍然较重 铅价仍陷震荡格局 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-20 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-19，LME铅现货升水为-44.18美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-275元/吨至17025 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 50元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-275 元/吨至17050元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-275元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-200元/吨至17050元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化50元/吨至10100元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10200元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10400 元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-19，沪铅主力合约开于17400元/吨，收于17185元/吨，较前一交易日变化-290元/吨，全天交易 日成交70963手，较前一交易日变化-50450手，全天交易日持仓74190手，手较前一交易日变化-8478手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到174 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - and medium - term, the supply - demand of tin ingots is expected to improve, and nickel and zinc have supply - related speculations. After a rapid price increase, profit - taking by funds led to an adjustment. However, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and supply - disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel at low prices should be watched for, and downstream industrial customers should pay attention to restocking opportunities during the adjustment. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply - disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist, leading to an expected tightening of supply - demand and a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For each metal: - Copper: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and the copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly [3][7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and the alumina price is under pressure and expected to fluctuate [3][8]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, the aluminum price has declined, but in the short - term, it is expected to remain strong with fluctuations due to positive macro - expectations and a tight supply - demand outlook [3][12]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][14]. - Zinc: The LME has suspended the delivery of KZ and YP zinc, and the SHFE zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [3][17]. - Lead: Social inventory has significantly increased, limiting the upside potential of the lead price, and it is expected to fluctuate [3][22]. - Nickel: Policy expectations are in a game with the weak reality, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [3][23]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price continues to rise, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate [3][26]. - Tin: Supply remains in short - supply, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information analysis**: The US December CPI data was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0 dollars/ton. December SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 15 had a higher average premium than the previous trading day. A Chilean copper mine's union will start a strike, and the production of a mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting the copper price. On the supply - demand side, copper - mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to supply constraints and increasing disruptions [8]. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot prices of alumina in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to an oversupply in reality and a low - range valuation [9]. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SMM AOO average price and the premium/discount of aluminum decreased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars in major domestic consumption areas increased, and the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts also increased. The Q1 2026 aluminum - ingot premium in Japanese ports increased significantly, and the December 2025 export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the US interest - rate cut expectation and China's new - infrastructure policies are positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas new - project progress is uncertain. On the demand side, high prices have suppressed demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is expected to rise [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the prices of some aluminum - alloy products decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. An Indonesian electrolytic - aluminum project has started production [14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported by a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by raw - material shortages and profit issues, and policies may also affect supply. The demand is mainly for刚需 in the short - term and is expected to improve marginally in the medium - term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse - receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, the aluminum - alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to cost support and a tight supply - demand balance [16]. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot premiums of 0 zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventory decreased slightly. The LME has suspended the further delivery of certain zinc brands since January 14, 2026 [19]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is relatively stable. The zinc - ore supply is tight, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic zinc - ingot supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short - term, the zinc price may remain high and fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline [20]. - **Outlook**: In January, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate as the production has increased slightly, the demand is in the off - season, but exports and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector support the price [21]. Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the price of waste electric - vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The LME has suspended the further delivery of a certain lead brand since January 14, 2026 [22]. - **Main logic**: The spot premium and the original - recycled lead price difference have increased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The supply has increased as some smelters have resumed production, and the demand is mixed, with a decline in electric - bicycle orders but an improvement in automobile - battery orders. Overall, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Outlook**: As the lead - ingot production recovers and the demand weakens marginally, but the waste - battery cost remains high, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and the LME nickel inventory increased. An Indonesian nickel - mining company has fully resumed operations, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel - ore production quota in 2026. The SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [24]. - **Main logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure as domestic and Indonesian production remains high. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The Indonesian nickel - ore quota is uncertain, and its actual implementation needs to be monitored [25]. - **Outlook**: In January, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate as the fundamentals are not significantly improved, but the Indonesian policy may affect the supply - demand balance [25]. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 15, the spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a certain discount compared to the futures contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [26]. - **Main logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron price. The production in December decreased, and there may be a slight increase in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [26]. - **Outlook**: In January, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate as the production may increase slightly, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost is supported [26]. Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [27]. - **Main logic**: The supply of tin is a major concern. Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are expected to limit production. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic situation and the growth of industries such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. Overall, the tin price is expected to be strong [28]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain [28]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial - product index of CITIC Futures all decreased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.09% on the day, 2.13% in the past 5 days, 12.72% in the past month, and 6.27% since the beginning of the year [156][158].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a price increase driven by a combination of macroeconomic sentiment, industrial policies, and fundamental factors, despite external pressures such as a strong dollar and stock market corrections [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 17,315 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan or 0.32% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai lead 2602 contract was 23,509 lots, with open interest decreasing by 4,586 lots to 30,400 lots [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at $2,055.5, down $4.5 [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Domestic spot lead prices showed a slight increase, with the average price for ccmn Longjiang 1 lead at 17,310 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan [1]. - Guangdong's spot 1 lead reported an average price of 17,335 yuan per ton, an increase of 75 yuan [1]. - The current spot lead market quotes range between 17,150 and 17,385 yuan per ton, indicating a discount of 75 to 40 yuan per ton compared to the Shanghai lead 2504 contract [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a comprehensive contraction, with domestic high-altitude mines entering winter breaks and smelting plants in Hunan and Yunnan undergoing maintenance, leading to reduced output [3]. - Recycled lead production is hindered by historically low inventory of waste battery raw materials and difficulties in winter collection [3]. - Demand remains robust, particularly from lead-acid battery enterprises resuming operations post-holiday, with traditional demand from automotive and industrial storage sectors stable [3]. Group 4: Industry Structure and Trends - The industry chain structure is optimizing, with profits concentrating upstream; the mining sector remains tight while the smelting industry is transitioning towards green recycling [3]. - Leading companies are demonstrating strong performance, such as Yuguang Group achieving over 100 billion yuan in revenue and accelerating its transition into new materials [3]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a strong price trend in the short term, with a core range of 17,300 to 17,500 yuan per ton, while monitoring the resumption of production at smelters and downstream acceptance of high prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price remains in a volatile pattern due to strong wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. Although there may be a slight increase in downstream开工 after the New Year's Day, if orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may reduce production or arrange holidays. Meanwhile, the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, and processing fees are at a low level. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [1][2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On January 12, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.05/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 75 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,345 yuan/ton and closed at 17,440 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,367 lots, a decrease of 20,317 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 40,313 lots, a decrease of 2,615 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,515 yuan/ton and a low of 17,315 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,540 yuan/ton and closed at 17,445 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose by 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract or a discount of 1,800 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract for ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, with some lead plants maintaining a premium of 30 yuan/ton, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract for ex - factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 300 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory. In January, the consumption of the lead - acid battery market was weak, downstream enterprises produced according to sales, raw material procurement enthusiasm was poor, wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and holders preferred to deliver to the warehouse, resulting in weak overall spot market transactions [2] Inventory - On January 12, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last week. As of January 12, the LME lead inventory was 221,450 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Given the current situation, operations can be carried out by buying and selling hedges within the price range of 16,980 - 17,800 yuan/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The macro - environment was positive with loose global monetary policies and resource premiums due to geopolitical conflicts, leading to a general rise in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The fundamentals showed a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure was limited as the increase and decrease in primary and secondary lead production offset each other. Consumption was dragged down by the expiration of policies and battery export pressure, and social inventories were expected to increase slowly. With multiple factors in play, the fundamentals provided limited guidance, and it was expected that the lead price would fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous metal sector [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 1/2 | 1/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17355 | 17355 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1994 | 2046.5 | 52.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.70 | 8.48 | - 0.22 | | | SHFE Inventory | 28004 | 30111 | 2107 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 239325 | 222725 | - 16600 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 1.91 | 1.96 | 0.05 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 70 | - 130 | - 60 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - After the New Year's Day holiday, the main 2602 contract of Shanghai lead futures had a good start. The stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals rose generally. The lead price rose following the sector rotation, reaching a weekly high of 17860 yuan/ton. Then, as some funds took profits, the lead price adjusted at a high level and finally closed at 17395 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.2%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. LME lead rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the year, non - ferrous metals rose generally. LME lead broke through 2025 US dollars/ton and continued to rise. It started to adjust near the upper edge of the oscillation range and finally closed at 2046.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of 2.63%. In the spot market, by January 9, lead warehouse receipts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were quoted at 17245 - 17315 yuan/ton, at a discount of 10 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2601 contract. After the high - level decline of Shanghai lead, the quotes of warehouse receipts by holders decreased, and more factory - delivered goods were sold. Some smelting enterprises with increased inventory pressure actively quoted for sales. The mainstream origin quotes were at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and in some regions, the premium was 100 - 150 yuan/ton. Secondary lead smelters generally sold at a discount, with secondary refined lead quoted at a discount of 300 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see and only purchased on a need - to - basis [6]. - In terms of inventory, by January 9, the LME weekly inventory was 222725 tons, a weekly decrease of 16600 tons. The SHFE inventory was 30111 tons, an increase of 2107 tons. By January 8, the SMM five - region social inventory was 1.96 million tons, an increase of 0.12 million tons compared with December 31 and an increase of more than 500 tons compared with January 5 [7]. 3.3 Industry News - On January 9, 2026, the processing fees for domestic and foreign lead concentrates were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 US dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining flat compared with the previous period [9]. - On the evening of January 7, Fuyang City, Anhui Province lifted the orange alert for air pollution, and some secondary lead enterprises in the region gradually resumed full - production operations [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of lead is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, the demand in the off - season becomes weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,850 yuan in January 2026 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 8, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.10 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -125 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On January 8, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,725 yuan/ton and closed at 17,335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 495 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 87,520 lots, an increase of 4,179 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position was 46,028 lots, a decrease of 5,981 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,760 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,265 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,350 yuan/ton and closed at 17,290 yuan/ton, a 0.26% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price increased by 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In different regions, the quotes of smelters and traders varied. Due to the continuous strengthening of lead prices, downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing, and the overall market trading was weak [2] Inventory - On January 8, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of January 8, the LME lead inventory was 226,450 tons, a decrease of 3,975 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of lead is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, the demand in the off - season becomes weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,850 yuan in January 2026 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Spot - On January 7, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.60/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,525 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Futures - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,530 yuan/ton and closed at 17,830 yuan/ton, a change of 310 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,341 lots, a change of 26,456 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 52,009 lots, a change of 1,009 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,860 yuan/ton and a low of 17,530 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,725 yuan/ton and closed at 17,650 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decline from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for rigid demand transactions, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. In Guangdong, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price ex - factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes' discount narrowed to a discount of 300 - 280 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead ex - factory. Due to the continuous rise of lead prices, downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to high prices, and the overall market trading was light [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On January 7, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of January 7, the LME lead inventory was 230,425 tons, a change of - 2,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 基本面变化有限 但有色整体带动铅价上行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-06，LME铅现货升水为-45.52美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化125元/吨至17350 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/ 吨至17375元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化100元/吨至17375元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化100元/吨至17400元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10025元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10400 元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-06，沪铅主力合约开于17385元/吨，收于17520元/吨，较前一交易日变化125元/吨，全天交易 日成交56885手，较前一交易日变化18820手，全天交易日持仓51000手，手较前一交易日变化3456手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17670元/吨，最低 ...