Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral [8] - Option strategy: Sell put options [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper price has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, but it is unlikely to show strong performance before the Spring Festival [1] - The supply shortage and difficult long - term contract negotiations support the price center, but the full increase in global visible inventory and the accumulation of domestic social inventory above 320,000 tons highlight the suppression of real consumption by high copper prices [8] - In February, the supply - demand contradiction will be temporarily alleviated, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate between 97,000 yuan/ton and 110,000 yuan/ton [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 104,200 yuan/ton and closed at 98,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.92% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,490 yuan/ton and closed at 100,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 180 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 130 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan. The spot price range was 99,880 - 101,040 yuan/ton [2] - The decline in copper prices stimulated a significant increase in terminal orders, with some enterprises' order volume increasing by up to 60% [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical: Iran may hold high - level nuclear negotiations with the US in the next few days, and the Russia - Ukraine issue negotiation will be held in Abu Dhabi from February 4 - 5 [3] - The US plans to launch a strategic critical mineral reserve project "Project Vault" with an initial capital of $12 billion [3] - Mine end: The Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile of Capstone Copper has resumed operation, but the strike by nearly 22% of its employees is still ongoing [4] - Smelting and import: LME copper inventory increased and then decreased slightly, SHFE copper inventory continued to accumulate, international copper inventory decreased, and New York copper inventory continued to accumulate [5] - Consumption: In January 2026, copper product terminal consumption showed pre - holiday rush characteristics with differentiation among sectors. In February, terminal consumption is expected to enter a seasonal trough [6] - Inventory and warrants: LME warrants decreased by 1,100 tons to 174,675 tons, SHFE warrants increased by 1,676 tons to 158,527 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 330,400 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy - Copper: Maintain a neutral rating. The spot TC at the mine end has dropped to a record low of - 49.84 dollars/ton. The supply shortage and difficult long - term contract negotiations support the price center. The copper price is expected to fluctuate between 97,000 yuan/ton and 110,000 yuan/ton in February [8] - Option: Sell put options [8]

供应紧缺支撑铜价，宏观情绪放大波动 2月铜月报 2026-2-2 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 目 录 04 后市展望 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 位。智利Mantoverde铜矿因谈判无果将持续罢工，南方铜业（Southern Copper）预计未来两年产量因矿石品位下降而下滑。美国总统特朗普表示，暂不 考虑对关键矿产包括铜加征关税，LME-COMEX套利空间随即收窄。铜价高位国内下游开工承压，国内库存连续累库。随着美元指数走强，叠加资金止盈 情绪升温，有色金属及贵金属价格回调。长期新能源、电力及AI算力需求支撑仍存，基本面支撑较强，但凯文·沃什被提名下届美联储主席下美联储货币政 策不确定性强，预计铜价宽幅震荡运行。 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 120000 26-01-30 26-01-26 26-01-20 26-01-14 26-01-08 25-12-31 25-12-25 25-12-19 25-12-15 25-12-09 25-12-03 25-11-27 25-11-21 25-11-17 25-11-11 25 ...

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：库存去化 | 7 | | 铅：国内库存持续增加，施压价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位高波 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：震荡上行 | 13 | | 钯：ETF持续流入，跟随上涨 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：刚需采买支撑，盘面宽幅震荡格局 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，关注库存变动 | 19 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪积极，构筑盘面底部支撑 | 19 | | 铁矿石：资金轮动，小幅探涨 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：商品情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 24 ...

伦铜突破每吨14000万美元大关创新高，带动矿业股走强，Ero Copper、南方铜业涨超6%，麦克莫兰铜 金涨超5%，泰克资源涨4.8%，必和必拓涨3.6%，力拓涨近3%。 路透调查显示，在铜价飙升至历史新高后，分析师首次将2026年铜价一致预期上调至每吨1.1万美元以 上，但对投机过热保持警惕，预计全年均价将显著低于高点。根据31位分析师给出的中位数预测，2026 年LME现货铜均价预计为每吨11,975美元，较去年10月上一轮调查的10,500美元预测上涨14%。(格隆 汇) ...

近期，有色金属成为A股热点。其中，被称为"红色黄金"的铜，在2025年上涨34.34%之后，其价格在 2026年开年又实现新一轮上涨。据生意社披露数据，1月29日，铜最新价格达到10.16万元/吨，同比上 涨35.08%。 业内认为，整体来看，能源转型与数字革命构成了铜需求长期增长的保障。以电解铜为例，通惠期货研 报显示，2026年电解铜的终端需求呈现"传统企稳、新兴崛起"的格局，全球需求量预计超过2900万吨， 其中近一半来自电力投资。 据国家电网官网消息，投入资金将重点用于科技创新、新型电力系统建设等方面。建设内容包括，服务 经营区风光新能源装机容量年均新增2亿千瓦左右；初步建成主配微协同的新型电网平台，加快特高压 直流外送通道建设；加快推进城市、农村、边远地区配网建设，探索末端保供型、离网型微电网模式； 夯实数智基础设施。 与此同时，中国南方电网有限责任公司2026年将安排固定资产投资1800亿元，连续五年创新高，年均增 速达9.5%，将重点投向新型电力系统建设、战略性新兴产业发展、优质供电服务提升等领域。这些将 为铜市场长期需求提供坚实的"压舱石"。 宝城期货分析师龙奥明表示，特高压、配电网和新能源三 ...

该集团旗下基础设施部门因墨西哥国家石油公司（Pemex）运营的油井停产而受挫，其高管表示正与Pemex进行磋商，预计工作将很快重启。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 在这一备受期待的举措中，该公司宣布其子公司Asarco正推进重启并改造其位于亚利桑那州闲置的Arizona冶炼厂和得克萨斯州Amarillo精炼厂的计划。 矿业主管Leonardo Contreras在Grupo Mexico发布第四季度财报后向分析师透露，此次改造预计耗资2.3亿美元。 该公司表示，此举将使年产能提升至冶炼60万吨铜精矿，中期内还可能进一步增产。 Grupo Mexico运输部门（GMXT）计划今年投资4.727亿美元。 1月28日（周三），墨西哥矿业巨头Grupo Mexico高管表示，正考虑在美国进行大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Zijin Mining (601899) will continue to increase its gold and copper production, with current valuation levels being highly attractive. The target price for H-shares has been raised from HKD 46.1 to HKD 59, and for A-shares from RMB 56, maintaining an "overweight" rating for both H-shares and A-shares [1] Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surpassed Morgan Stanley's previous forecast of USD 4,750 per ounce for the second half of the year, with geopolitical risks, central bank signals, and ETF buying contributing to this trend. The bank emphasizes that under a bullish scenario, gold prices could reach USD 5,700 per ounce in the latter half of the year [1] Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Although Morgan Stanley had a positive outlook for metals, including copper, at the beginning of the year, prices have already exceeded the forecast of USD 12,200 per ton for the second quarter. The bank believes that supply tightness and a strong macroeconomic backdrop will continue to support copper prices, although short-term fluctuations may occur due to uncertainties in U.S. import trends and limited data from China before March [1] - The bank anticipates a supply deficit of approximately 600,000 tons in the copper market by 2026, with limited growth in mine supply being offset by new demand driven by data centers and energy storage systems [1]

Summary of Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO-US) 4Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO-US) - **Industry**: Mining, specifically copper production Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Increased by 15% quarter-over-quarter to $3.87 billion [1] - **Adjusted EBITDA**: Increased by 17% quarter-over-quarter to $2.31 billion [1] - **Net Profit**: Increased by 18% quarter-over-quarter to $1.31 billion, equivalent to $1.56 per share, slightly above market expectations [1] Copper Production and Sales - **Copper Production**: Increased by 3% quarter-over-quarter to 242,000 tons, aligning with market expectations [1] - **Copper Sales**: Increased by 1% quarter-over-quarter to 236,000 tons, generally meeting market expectations [1] - **By-Product Production**: - Zinc: Increased by 2% quarter-over-quarter to 46,200 tons [1] - Silver: Increased by 5% quarter-over-quarter to 6.55 million ounces [1] - Molybdenum: Decreased by 3% quarter-over-quarter to 770 tons, slightly below market expectations [1] Operational Costs - **Copper Operating Cash Cost**: - Before by-product revenue: Increased by 3% quarter-over-quarter to $2.29 per pound [1] - After by-product revenue: Increased by 24% quarter-over-quarter to $0.52 per pound [1] Dividends - **Quarterly Dividend**: Board approved a cash dividend of $1.00 per share and a stock dividend of 0.0085 shares, equivalent to approximately $1.53 per share based on the average price of $179.93 on January 22 [1] Capital Expenditure - **Capital Expenditure**: Increased by 21% year-over-year to $423 million, primarily due to accelerated development of the Tia Maria project [1] Project Updates - **Tia Maria Copper Mine**: - Planned annual production of 120,000 tons of copper. - As of the end of 2025, $790 million has been invested in capital expenditures (total project capex is $1.8 billion) [1]. - Current progress includes initiation of earthworks at La Tapada, procurement of secondary and tertiary crushing metal structures, and completion of main substation earthworks [1]. - **Los Chancas Copper Mine**: - Planned annual production of 130,000 tons of copper. - Community and environmental work is ongoing, but illegal mining remains a challenge; the company plans to take action with authorities [2]. - Projected production start date updated from 2032 to 2031 [2]. - **Michiquillary Copper Mine**: - Planned annual production of 225,000 tons of copper. - Geological information for estimating mineral resources has been audited, and the company will use this to estimate reserves and develop mining plans [2].

有色贵金属海外流动性再收紧，铜价短期难突破 一、日度市场总结 产业链供需及库存变化分析 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：LME铜主力合约价格2026年1月27日走高至13183.0美元/ 吨，较近期高点13407美元/吨回落约2%。基差方面，LME(0-3)贴水加深至 2026年1月27日的-71.07美元/吨，基差走弱；国内现货升贴水如升水铜、 平水铜和湿法铜贴水均加深。 持仓与成交 ：LME铜持仓量在2026年1月26日增加7465手至332992手，持仓 量扩大。 供给端 ：供给端有所改善，全球矿业公司加速采用生物浸出等新技术从低 品位矿石提取铜，缓解传统矿山供应限制；同时，中国2025年12月再生铜 进口量达23.90万吨，宁波海关进口量居首，显示进口补充增加。LME和 SHFE库存小幅减少，但整体供应压力因新产能释放而缓解。 需求端 ：需求端持续疲软，高铜价抑制下游消费，导致电力、建筑、汽车 等领域需求减弱；下游逢低采购规模有限，无法扭转现货贴水格局，消费 疲软进一步加剧库存累积。 库存端 ：库存端整体偏高，LME库存2026年1月27日降至145314吨，SHFE库 存从171700吨降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining (601899.SH, 02899.HK) is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 47.5 billion to 48.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50% to 53% [2] - For Q4 2025, the estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 13.1 billion to 14.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 71% to 84% [2] - In 2025, Zijin Mining's gold production is approximately 90 tons, an increase of 17 tons year-on-year, while copper production is around 1.09 million tons, up by 20,000 tons [6] Group 2: Strategic Acquisitions - On January 27, Zijin Mining announced a cash offer of 44 Canadian dollars per share to acquire all issued common shares of Allied Gold, totaling approximately 5.5 billion Canadian dollars (about 28 billion yuan) [4] - This acquisition is expected to strengthen Zijin Mining's resource linkage system in Africa, enhancing its global competitiveness [4] - In 2025, Zijin Mining completed several significant acquisitions, including the Akyem Gold Mine in Ghana and the Raygorodok Gold Mine in Kazakhstan, expanding its resource base in gold, copper, lithium, and molybdenum [5] Group 3: Market Conditions - The prices of gold, copper, and silver have been rising due to global interest rate cuts, increased geopolitical risks, strong downstream demand, and supply imbalances [5] - Zijin Mining's mineral gold and copper prices increased by 44.42% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively, contributing to profit growth [5] - The year 2025 is marked by a significant increase in gold prices, surpassing 4,000 USD per ounce, and copper prices exceeding 10,000 USD per ton [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, Zijin Mining plans to produce 105 tons of gold, 120 million tons of copper, and 12,000 tons of lithium equivalent, with expected increases of 17%, 10%, and 380% respectively compared to 2025 [6] - The company anticipates further growth in market capitalization driven by the production ramp-up from the Kamoa Copper Mine and the Jilong Copper Mine [6]