中信建投表示，2026年，全球铜市场总量角度看存在10余万吨缺口，但是，美国铜关税预期未落， COMEX铜较LME铜持续升水，最新价差仍旧维持100美金/吨，驱动贸易商继续往美国搬运精炼铜，虹 吸造成非美地区铜供应持续紧张。总量缺口叠加区域性错配推动铜价不断刷新历史高点。 消息面上，1月6日，伦敦铜价涨幅扩大，突破13100美元，续创新高。据报道，1月2日加拿大矿产商 Captone宣布其位于智利的曼托韦德铜金矿将于1月2日开始罢工。中信建投（601066）认为，尽管该矿 场2025年生产阴极铜仅2.9~3.2万吨，但是，已然紧张的市场增添的任何新供应风险，都有可能被资金 计入铜价之中。 铜业股普遍走高，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨6.45%，报15.34港元；江西铜业（600362）股份 (00358)涨4.1%，报44.2港元；五矿资源(01208)涨2.98%，报9.32港元。 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2026年1月5日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：假期内地缘冲突加剧，美国空袭委内瑞拉，持续一小时，特朗普称抓获马杜罗及其夫人，今日开盘市场避险情绪加剧，但对于铜价影 响相对有限，大多受产业端影响较大。 ➢ 供给方面：1月2日，加拿大铜矿商Capstone Copper宣布，其智利曼托维德铜金矿场当日开始罢工，期间将逐步缩减运营，预计产量骤降七成。 目前铜冶炼厂无法通过长协订单获得利润，同时现货市场维持弱稳，后续不减产的情况下，硫酸及金等副产品成为主要盈利点。12月SMM中国电 解铜产量环比增加7.5万吨，升幅为6.8%，同比上升7.54%。1-12月累计产量同比增加137.20万吨，增幅为11.38%。前期冶炼厂停车后，本月陆续 复产，同时精废价差合适，废铜原料冶炼产量环比有增长，关注后续冶炼厂副产品的价格能否持续弥补冶炼厂亏损。 ➢ 需求方面：近期下游铜材多进入年终决算时期，铜价连续走高后，采购趋于谨慎，铜箔市场由于 ...

澳大利亚上市的Capstone Copper股价一度下跌6.8%，为11月21日以来最大跌幅，之前该公司表示智利 Mantoverde矿的四个工会之一的Union#2将从1月2日起采取罢工行动。在罢工期间预计Mantoverde将继 续以最高正常产量30%的水平运营。公司仍愿意参加会议以达成决议。工会代表了大约50%的 Mantoverde员工，占员工总数的22%。（智通财经） ...

| | | | 美国虹吸效应下，铜价重心上移 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 铜市场综述 | 3 | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 3 | | 第二部分 | 供应扰动增加 | 5 | | 第三部分 | 消费端 | 16 | | 一、 | | 新兴消费高速增长 16 | | 二、 | 传统消费收缩 | 23 | | 三、 | 消费端总结 | 26 | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡表 | 26 | | 免责声明 | | 28 | 有色金属研发报告 铜 12 月报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 美国虹吸效应下，铜价重心上移 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2025 年铜价先跌后涨，重心不断上移，全年涨幅近 40%。1-3 月铜价 缓慢上行，4 月初短线快速下跌，最低跌至 8105 美元/吨，6 月收复前期的 全部跌幅。9 月下旬铜价突破年度压力位 10160 美元/吨，10 月 29 日价格 首次 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 铜价回落后再度企稳 明年一季度展望仍偏乐观 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美联储公布12月会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但就美国经济目前面临的风险进 行了深入细致的辩论。根据会议纪要，鉴于美国经济面临的各种风险，即使是一些支持降息的官员也承认，"这一 决定是权衡利弊后的结果，或者他们也本可能支持维持目标利率区间不变"。而在讨论本次会议的货币政策决定时， 委员们一致认为，现有指标显示经济活动正在以温和的速度扩张。他们还一致认为，今年就业增长有所放缓，失 业率截至9月份略有上升。此外，根据会议对资产负债表考虑的讨论，委员们一致认为，准备金余额已经下降到充 足的水平，委员会将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应。他们还同意取消对常备回购操 作的总额限制。 矿端方面，外电12月29日消息，印度最高法院于周一主动暂停执行其五周前做出的关于重新定义阿拉瓦利山脉的 裁决，该裁决曾将这座富含矿产的古老山脉向更广泛的采矿和房地产开发开放。在周一的紧急听证会上，由首席 大法官Surya Kant领导的特别合议庭表示， ...

智利《信使报》（电子版）12月23日报道，2025年以来铜价屡创新高，目前已达到 创纪录的每吨1.2万美元，铜价有望创下自2009年以来最大的年度涨幅。一些分析师认 为未来铜价还会继续上涨，原因是全球范围内多个重要铜矿供应发生中断，如印度尼 西亚的格拉斯伯格铜矿和智利的埃尔特尼恩特铜矿。 （原标题：铜价再创新高） ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-30 期货行情： 2025-12-29，沪铜主力合约开于 98310元/吨，收于 98860元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.14%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 97020元/吨，收于 96060 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌2.83%。 现货情况： 年末关注持仓下降而可能带来的价格回调风险 市场要闻与重要数据 据 SMM 讯，昨日沪铜现货市场呈现整体贴水格局，报价区间为贴水400元/吨至升水260元/吨，均价升水小幅上涨。 尽管期货价格走高，但市场成交氛围清淡，多数持货商坚持报价，仅少数因出货需求而大幅调低贴水。此外，好 铜供应增加但成交困难，湿法铜价格则相对坚挺。临近年底，买卖双方交投意愿均不强烈，加之铜价高企抑制下 游采购需求，预计短期内现货大幅贴水的状况仍将延续。 重要资讯汇总： 美联储方面，美国总统特朗普表示，将在适当的时机宣布美联储主席人选，时间很充裕；批评美联储主席鲍威尔 及美联储翻修大楼的做法；正考虑起诉鲍威尔，指控他无法胜任工作。地缘方面，美国总统特朗普同乌克兰总统 泽连斯基举行会晤。尽管双方都称会谈"取得很大进展"，却均未作出重大宣布。特朗普表示，他同泽连 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

铜周报 黄蕾 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2025 年 12 月 29 日 市场情绪高涨，铜价延续上行 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周铜价延续上行，主因美国三季度GDP增速好于预期， 美联储下一任主席人选或将于近期公布，特朗普表示其必 须站在拥护降息的鸽派立场上，而鲍威尔或将在明年5月 卸任后提前辞去理事职位，美元指数走势疲软提振金属市 场，另一方面，央行连续第10个月加量续作MLF保持市场 流动性充裕，楼市政策将于明年进一步松绑；基本面来看， 海外精矿供应紧缺依旧，非美地区货源偏低，国内社会库 存低位下探，现货消费受到抑制，内贸现货贴水扩大，近 月盘面C结构 ...

南财智讯12月29日电，江西铜业股份（00358.HK）发布须予披露交易公告，于2025年12月24日，公司 全资附属江铜香港投资与SolGoldplc董事会就以全现金方式收购SolGold全部已发行及将要发行的普通股 股本达成协议。基于公告日期已发行的SolGold股份总数及已授出购股权计算（不包括江铜香港投资已 持有的股份），本次交易最高总对价不超过7.64亿英镑。本次收购将以每股28便士的现金对价进行，资 金来源包括江铜香港投资现有现金资源及法国兴业银行提供的贷款融资。收购事项尚需获得SolGold股 东批准，并满足或豁免相关条件，包括法院会议及股东大會决议通过、英格兰及威尔士高等法院裁决及 向英国公司注册处交付法院命令副本等。若完成，江铜香港投资将持有SolGold全部股本，SolGold将成 为江西铜业股份间接全资附属公司，其财务业绩将并入公司合并报表。董事会认为，此次交易条款公平 合理，符合公司及股东整体利益。 ...