Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The main reason was that the unexpected increase in the US PPI slightly cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. The hawks and doves within the Fed have significant differences on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year. Gradual and small - scale interest - rate cuts may still be the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the accident - hit mine under Codelco is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity. The inventory accumulation in the domestic off - season is limited, and the near - month structure has changed from flat to a slightly B structure [2]. - Overall, the general recovery of the US September interest - rate cut expectation, the continuous alleviation of global economic growth concerns after the implementation of tariffs, the good results of the Trump - Putin meeting that may promote US - Russia trade and boost the risk appetite of global capital markets, and China's anti - involution and steady - growth policies will effectively boost the demand for the non - ferrous metal market. However, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value and social retail sales in July were slightly lower than expected. Fundamentally, there are continuous disruptions at overseas mines, the inventory accumulation speed in the domestic off - season is slow, and no large amount of US copper has flowed out. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high - level fluctuation in the short term [3][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - LME copper price on August 15 was $9,760.00/ton, down $8.00 (-0.08%) from August 8; COMEX copper price was 448.9 cents/pound, up 0.4 cents (0.09%); SHFE copper price was 79,060 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan (0.73%); international copper price was 70,180 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan (0.76%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.04 to 8.10, and the LME spot premium/discount was -$93.75/ton, down $24.20 (34.80%) [4]. - As of August 15, LME inventory was 155,800 tons, down 50 tons (-0.03%); COMEX inventory was 267,195 short tons, up 3,055 short tons (1.16%); SHFE inventory was 86,343 tons, up 4,428 tons (5.41%); Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 80,600 tons, up 5,100 tons (6.75%); total inventory was 589,938 tons, up 12,533 tons (2.17%) [7] Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level due to the unexpected increase in the US PPI cooling the interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, Codelco's accident - hit mine is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity, and the domestic off - season inventory accumulation is limited [8]. - As of August 15, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 589,000 tons, and the global inventory continued to rebound. The LME copper inventory was basically flat, and the cancelled warrant ratio remained at 7.4%; the SHFE inventory increased slightly by 4,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation in the off - season was relatively limited; the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.1 [8]. - In the macro - aspect, the US July PPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year and month - on - month, exceeding market expectations. The core PPI rose to 3.7%, much higher than the previous value of 2.6%. After the data was released, the September interest - rate cut expectation slightly declined. There are significant differences within the Fed on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year [9][10]. - In terms of supply and demand, most areas of Codelco's Teniente project have resumed production, but the affected area is a new area for capacity improvement in the next 3 - 5 years. The Panama copper mine has basically no hope of resuming production this year. The domestic spot TC has slightly rebounded to -$38/ton, and the mine - end interference rate is still rising. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. However, affected by the increasingly tight supply of cold materials, non - CSPT smelters have started to slightly reduce production. From the demand side, the construction of power grid investment projects has slightly weakened, dragging down the operating rate of cable enterprises. The overall domestic demand has slightly decelerated month - on - month but still has resilience year - on - year [11] Industry News - Codelco has restarted the underground mining and processing operations of its EI Teniente mine in Chile. Eight underground areas that were evaluated as safe by the mining and labor departments resumed production last weekend, and the smelter also restarted. Four other mining areas near the accident site on July 31 are still closed, and relevant investigations are underway. The eight areas that resumed production account for about 82% of the total production [13]. - Chilean state - owned mining enterprise ENAMI has officially launched an investment recruitment plan to attract investors for a $1.7 - billion smelter. After the renovation, the annual processing capacity of the smelter will reach 850,000 tons of copper concentrates, and the annual production capacity will be 240,000 tons of copper cathodes [14]. - The official data shows that Zambia's copper production in the second quarter declined, posing a risk to the goal of increasing copper production to 1 million tons this year. If the first - quarter production is not revised, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 4%. The production in the second quarter was affected by problems at four producers [15] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, LME copper premium/discount, SHFE copper inter - period spread, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, COMEX copper non - commercial net long position ratio, and LME copper investment fund net position change [16][22][24][28][32]

中航期货 铜产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-8-15 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 政 | 同 | 加 | 以 | 过 | 升 | 02 | 库 | 本 | 的3%， | 行 | 货 | 税 | 飙 | 不 | 体 | 基 | 幅。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 增0. | 别 | 现 | 关 | 比 | 整 | 铜 | 涨 | 特 | 期 | 矿 | 增， | 征 | 环 | 此 | 号。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The copper mining industry is experiencing significant supply disruptions, leading to a clear pattern of scarce incremental production for the year [14][15] - The total production guidance for the ten major copper mining companies is projected to be 9.759 million tons for 2025, which represents a decrease of 57,000 tons compared to the actual production in 2024 [14][17] - Major companies are struggling to meet their production guidance, with most achieving less than 50% of their annual targets by mid-2025 [15] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Supply Disruptions - The report tracks ten major copper mining companies, including Freeport, Codelco, BHP, and others, highlighting frequent supply disruptions in the first half of 2025 [13][14] - The average production for these companies in Q2 2025 increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter but decreased by 2% year-on-year [14][16] 2. Company-Specific Updates Freeport - Freeport's production guidance has been adjusted downwards due to challenges at the Grasberg mine, with a new target of 1.79 million tons for the year [15][18] - The company has a rich asset portfolio with significant copper, gold, and molybdenum reserves [18] Codelco - Codelco's production recovery efforts are hindered by mining accidents, affecting its output and guidance [15] BHP - BHP reported a slight increase in copper production in Q2 2025, but its long-term production guidance indicates a decline in ore grades [15][17] Glencore - Glencore's copper production is under pressure, with expectations of continued declines in 2025 [15] Southern Copper - Southern Copper's production remains stable, with expected increases primarily in the long term [15] First Quantum - First Quantum faces challenges in production recovery, particularly at its Cobre Panama mine [15] Anglo American - Anglo American's production is under pressure due to declining ore grades, impacting overall output [15] Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi underground mine is expected to contribute significantly to future production, although current output is still being ramped up [15] Antofagasta - Antofagasta is expanding its operations to mitigate the impact of declining ore grades [15] Teck Resources - Teck Resources has adjusted its production guidance downward due to limitations at its QB2 project [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September continues to increase, with the US dollar fluctuating at a low level, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The domestic copper inventory remains low, and the smelter processing fees are gradually stabilizing and rebounding. The Shanghai copper market is generally strong in the short term but still maintains a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for market drivers [2][59][60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Fundamental Information - US: In July, the overall consumer price index (CPI) was lower than market expectations. The CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slowing down from 0.3% in June, and the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, the same as last month. After the news was announced, the US dollar weakened, and the market raised the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September to over 96%. The ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48 in July, and the Markit manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in 2025 [5]. - China: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index decreased by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. The CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year decrease remaining at 3.6% [8]. Recent Developments in Copper Mining Disturbances - Codelco in Chile is conducting a full - scale investigation after a mine accident. The accident caused six deaths, making it the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades [11]. - Chifeng Gold's Laos Saiban SND gold - copper mine project completed its first - stage resource exploration. As of June 30, 2025, the proven mineral resource volume was 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 g/t and a gold equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [12]. Analysis of LME Copper/Shanghai Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 12, the highest price of Shanghai copper was 79,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,050 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 1.43%. The highest price of LME copper was 9,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,622.5 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 2.52% [13]. Copper Supply Side - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 ports in China increased by 0.77 million tons to 428,700 tons [23]. - As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 US dollars/dry ton, and the RC was - 3.79 US cents/pound, showing a stable and upward trend. The long - term contracts of smelters are profitable, while the spot contracts are still at a loss, but the production enthusiasm of smelters is acceptable [25]. - In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. In July, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.113 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [31]. Copper Inventory Data - After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper inventory started to increase significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.95% and a month - on - month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation speed of COMEX slowed down, with the inventory at 264,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.72% and a month - on - month increase of 18.23%. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not significantly increased, supporting the domestic copper price to some extent. The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong increased slightly [38]. Downstream Terminal Demand - In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The utilization rate was lower than expected, and some enterprises reduced or stopped production. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube enterprises showed a downward trend, and the export volume decreased due to the 50% tariff on US copper products [47]. - From January to June, the investment in power grid projects reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The real estate industry remained weak, with a year - on - year decline in various indicators such as construction area and new construction area [53]. - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. The consumption of refined copper in China is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026 [56].

Financial Performance - MMG achieved record financial results in the first half of 2025, with Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) of US$566 million, a 612% increase year-on-year[18] - EBITDA increased by 98% year-on-year to US$1,540 million[18] - Revenue increased by 47% to US$2,817 million in 1H 2025 compared to US$1,918 million in 1H 2024[47] - The gearing ratio decreased to 33%, down from 41% at the end of 2024[18] Production and Operations - Copper production increased significantly, with contained metal produced rising to 259kt in 1H 2025, a 64% increase compared to 158kt in 1H 2024[21] - Zinc production saw a slight decrease of 1%, with 108kt produced in 1H 2025 compared to 110kt in 1H 2024[21] - Revenue from copper sales increased to 78% of total revenue in 1H 2025, up from 72% in 1H 2024[22, 23] - Las Bambas copper production reached 211kt in 1H 2025, driven by higher ore milled grades[25, 27] - Khoemacau copper production increased to 22kt in 1H 2025, a 121% increase compared to 1H 2024[60] Strategy and Outlook - MMG is committed to debt reduction, with a focus on enhanced financial strength[73, 75] - The company is investing in growth and capacity expansion projects, including Las Bambas, Kinsevere, and Khoemacau[80, 81] - MMG is pursuing a nickel acquisition with an upfront cash consideration of US$350 million[82]

沪铜日评20250812: 国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | | 变量名称 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-01 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收益价 | 79020 | 78490 | 78400 | 530.00 | | | 治铜朗总法联合约 | 成交量(手) | 70041 | 42906 | 80943 | 27,135.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 160884 | 1568991 | 167671 | 3, 992. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 23275 | 21272 | 20349 | 2,003.00 | | | | SMW 1#电解铜平均价 沪铜县差 | 79150 130 | 78530 40 | 78330 -70 | 620.00 90.00 ~ | | | 沪铜基差或现货十贴水 | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | -20 | -40 | -15 | 20.00 1 | | | (现货与期货) | ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 12 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融研究团队 021-60635739 有色金属研究团队 021-60635734 黑色金属研究团队 021-60635736 石油化工研究团队 021-60635738 农业产品研究团队 021-60635732 量化策略研究团队 021-60635726 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价上涨，沪铜主力收盘报 79020，美就业市场疲软导致联储官员态度转鸽，市 场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Aspects**: Recent macroeconomic game has intensified, with tariff and trade frictions between the US and Japan, and the US and India escalating. Market risk aversion has increased, and changes in the number of senior Fed officials have affected the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 90%, and the US dollar index is under pressure to oscillate at a low level, supporting the copper price. After the Russia-Ukraine talks last Friday, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may turn for the better, leading to a stronger copper price. However, the current domestic anti-involution measures have no new drivers, and the positive impact on the copper price is limited. Attention should still be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [2][4]. - **Supply Aspects**: The maintenance of a smelter in Indonesia has been extended until mid-August. More copper concentrates have flowed into other countries. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. The increase in copper concentrate imports has provided smelters with abundant raw materials. Currently, copper production has not declined. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [2][4]. - **Demand Aspects**: Currently, it is the hot and rainy season, and the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good, but the construction and real estate sectors still have a negative impact. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - **US Manufacturing PMI**: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49, marking the fastest contraction rate in the past nine months, dragged down by continuous order reduction and intensified employment decline. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, lower than the previous month and the first time it fell below the boom-bust line since 2025 [9]. - **China's Economic Indicators**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, a 0.4 and 0.5 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase, and remained flat year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, remaining the same as the previous month [15]. 3.2 Copper Price Trends - **Shanghai Copper**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend. The highest price of the week was 78,610 yuan per ton, the lowest was 78,030 yuan per ton, the weekly amplitude was 0.74%, and the interval increase was 0.11% [18]. - **LME Copper**: As of August 8, the weekly change rate of LME copper was +1.13%, closing at $9,700 per ton. The LME copper spot discount weakened, and the inventory accumulation trend of the exchange's copper inventory continued. The copper resources in the market were relatively more abundant than before the implementation of tariffs, resulting in a weaker spot discount [33]. 3.3 Copper Market News - **Chilean Copper Mine Accident**: On August 5, news reported that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, was facing one of the most severe safety challenges in its history. After several days of emergency rescue, rescuers found the body of the last missing miner at the El Teniente mine, and all five miners trapped in the tunnel collapse accident on Thursday had died. This accident, which caused six deaths, was the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades and prompted the company to launch a comprehensive investigation [21]. - **Chifeng Gold's Project**: On August 7, Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) announced that its subsidiary's Laos Saiban SND gold-copper mine project had completed the first-phase resource exploration. According to the resource estimation report issued by SRK China based on the JORC standard, as of June 30, 2025, the project (porphyry gold-copper deposit) had proven mineral resources of 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 grams per ton and a gold equivalent metal volume of approximately 1.069 million tons. Drilling is planned to resume after the rainy season to upgrade the resource reserves [22]. 3.4 Copper Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 428,700 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous week [38]. - **Smelter Fees**: As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. With the increase in copper concentrate imports, smelters have abundant raw materials, and currently, copper production has not declined. On the morning of June 27, 2025, the mid-year negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters set the TC/RC at $0 per dry ton and 0 cents per pound. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable [42]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August. In July, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [46][47]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In June 2025, scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, with a relatively high year-on-year import volume, exceeding market expectations. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper has led to a shortage of scrap copper supply, and more scrap copper rod enterprises have shut down their production facilities. Currently, affected by copper tariffs, there is a mismatch in the global scrap copper supply and demand, which may lead to a continued decrease in domestic scrap copper imports in the future [52]. 3.5 Copper Demand - **Apparent Demand**: As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. Currently, due to the hot and rainy season, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good. From January to June 2025, China's power grid infrastructure investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The State Grid plans to invest more than 650 billion yuan this year, a year-on-year increase of +8% [57]. - **Copper Products**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The start-up rate was lower than expected, and downstream enterprises were cautious in taking delivery. Refined copper rod enterprises have reduced or stopped production, and enterprises have no intention to stockpile, keeping the inventory level low. Currently, it is the off-season, and downstream enterprises are not willing to accept high copper prices, resulting in an unexpected reduction in production by refined copper rod enterprises. The start-up rate of copper tube enterprises has shown a downward trend, with insufficient follow-up of downstream orders. With copper prices at a high level, the start-up rate has continued to decline. The production of terminal household appliances such as air conditioners is not high, and due to the 50% tariff on copper products imposed by the US, the export volume has decreased [62]. - **Power Grid Engineering**: From January to June, the power grid project investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. From January to June, the power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% year-on-year respectively. The power grid project remains a downstream rigid demand for copper, supporting the copper price [66]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: From January to June, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.4124 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. Among them, the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The completed area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8%. Among them, the completed area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a decrease of 15.5%. The real estate market continues to be weak [71]. - **Automobile and New Energy Automobile Industry**: In June, automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and 8.1% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and 26.7% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.8% of the total sales volume of new vehicles [76]. 3.6 Copper Inventory - **Global Exchanges**: After the implementation of copper tariffs, the siphon effect of US copper has ended, and the LME copper inventory has started to accumulate significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.95% and a month-on-month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation rate of COMEX has slowed down, and the COMEX copper inventory was 264,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.72% and a month-on-month increase of 18.23% [83]. - **Domestic Inventory**: On August 7, the total spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 80,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the 31st, and a decrease of 300 tons from the 4th. The change in the bonded area inventory was limited. During the week, the export goods from smelters did not enter the warehouse, and the imported goods arriving at the port were directly cleared and imported into the domestic market, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [87].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded due to the significant increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain after the premium issue of US copper tariffs subsided, and the clear tone of China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies boosting the demand in the non - ferrous metal market. The fact that major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US also slightly improved the global economic growth outlook. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and the near - month structure turning to flat water [2][8]. - Overall, after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US. The market is optimistic about the Fed's rate cut in September. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies will boost the non - ferrous metal market demand and support the domestic economic base. Both internal and external macro factors are favorable for copper prices. Fundamentally, overseas mine supply remains tight, domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season is limited, and the release of global refined copper production capacity is slow. Copper prices are expected to enter a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Price Changes: From August 1st to August 8th, LME copper rose from $9,633/ton to $9,768/ton, a 1.40% increase; COMEX copper rose from 444.3 cents/pound to 448.5 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase; SHFE copper rose from 78,400 yuan/ton to 78,490 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase; international copper rose from 69,530 yuan/ton to 69,650 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.14 to 8.04, and the LME spot premium/discount decreased from - $49.25/ton to - $69.55/ton, a 41.22% change. The Shanghai spot premium/discount decreased from 175 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of August 8th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area increased to 577,405 tons, a 5.18% increase from August 1st. LME inventory increased by 14,100 tons (9.95%), COMEX inventory increased by 4,459 short tons (1.72%), SHFE inventory increased by 9,390 tons (12.95%), and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory increased by 500 tons (0.67%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Rebound Reasons: The significant increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain, China's policies boosting demand, and the improved global economic growth outlook due to no retaliation from major economies against the US all contributed to the copper price rebound. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season [8]. - Inventory Situation: As of August 8th, the total global inventory increased to 577,400 tons. LME copper inventory increase led to the LME0 - 3 turning to a contango structure, and the cancelled warrant ratio slightly decreased to 7.1%. SHFE inventory increased by 9,000 tons, and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory was basically flat. The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium fell to around $50. Overseas supplies flowed back to LME Asian warehouses and some entered China, increasing imports. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.04 due to the short - term depreciation of the US dollar after the rate - cut expectation increased [8]. - Macroeconomic Situation: In the US, inflation expectations increased, credit access became more difficult, but the employment outlook improved. Trump nominated a new Fed governor who is expected to be dovish. India may not retaliate against US tariffs. Fed official Kashkari believes that the US economy is slowing and rate cuts may be appropriate, with a 93.4% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME. The US service industry index showed signs of stagnation, and the risk of stagflation is rising. In China, exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year (in US dollars), and the total import and export value in the first seven months increased by 3.5% year - on - year, with high - tech product trade growing strongly [9]. - Supply and Demand Situation: Overseas, Codelco's Chilean mine has not restarted, and the Panama project may not resume production this year. Six overseas mining companies have lowered their production targets. In China, the production of large and medium - sized smelters was high in July but is expected to decline slightly in August. In terms of demand, power grid investment weakened, the开工 rate of wire and cable enterprises decreased, the consumption of the wind and solar industries is expected to decline, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season but still has year - on - year growth. Overall, domestic demand decreased slightly month - on - month but remained resilient year - on - year, and the market maintained a tight balance [10]. 3. Industry News - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine earthquake may be caused by mining activities. The company has applied to restart part of the mine and is investigating the cause. If the mine remains closed, it will exacerbate the global copper supply shortage and increase Codelco's financial pressure. Restarting the mine requires convincing regulators and unions of the stability of the entire underground operation area [12]. - Teck Resources' Q2 2025 copper production was 109,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease and a 2.8% quarter - on - quarter increase. Antamina's production decreased due to an accident and lower ore treatment volume, while Highland Valley Copper's production increased. Antamina's 2025 copper production is expected to be between 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Quebrada Blanca's Q2 production was 52,700 tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase and a 24.6% quarter - on - quarter increase. The QB port facility's loading machine malfunction is expected to last until H1 2026, and production is not expected to be affected. QBII's 2025 copper production guidance is revised down to 210,000 - 230,000 tons [13]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly last week due to the decline in the spot premium of domestic copper and weak restocking by cable enterprises in the off - season. The processing fees in different regions vary. The price of 8mm T3 low - oxygen copper rods in South and Southwest China increased by $50 - 100/ton compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to be under slight pressure in mid - August [14][15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and other related data such as basis, premium, and TC [16][18][21][22][26][27][29][32][35][38]

【車安资讯】 智利Codelco表示BI Teniente铜矿7月31日因发生坍塌而暂停开采，Teck Resources二季度下调智利Quebrada Blanca钢矿25年预期生产量， | | Mewnoort旗下加拿大Red Chris 铜矿(25年预期生产量为2万金属吨)的非生产性项目地下作业区通道发生明岛事故而暂停运营，盎格鲁亚洲矿业 | | --- | --- | | | (Anglo Asian Mining)旗下Denirli钢矿开始试生产使25年钢精矿生产量为4000吨而26年及以后钢精矿生产量将增至1.5万吨，俄罗斯Monnickel | | | 将25年铜生产量由35. 3-37. 3万吨下调至34.3-35. 5万吨，山西运城垣曲县五龙突业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源加00 | | | 下Las Banbas（2025年预计生产量38万金属吨）和Budbar旗下Cons tancia（2025年预计生产量8-9. 7万金属吨）因非正规矿工暂停封路坑议至7月 | | | 18日，加拿大Manitoba北部发生野火使Hudbay Minerals已经暂停Show La ...