Price Increase in Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a wave of price increases, with leading manufacturers issuing clear price hike notifications to customers [1] - A major manufacturer has announced that starting in 2026, processing fees for all lithium iron phosphate products will be uniformly raised [1] - Industry insiders indicate that price increases have already been implemented for some customers, while others are still in negotiations, but the trend towards price hikes is seen as inevitable, which may help restore profit levels in the industry [1] Battery Production and Demand Growth - In November, the domestic power battery installation volume reached 93.5 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 11.2% and a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [2] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 75.3 GWh of the total installation, making up 80.5% of the total, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to November, the domestic power battery installation volume reached 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.0% [2] Lithium Demand Forecast - The chairman of Tianqi Lithium stated that due to the demand from renewable energy integration and the rapid growth of commercial electric vehicles, the demand for basic lithium materials is continuously rising [3] - Global lithium demand is projected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, approaching a supply-demand balance [3] - Predictions indicate that if demand growth exceeds 30% next year, lithium prices could potentially rise to 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton [3] Investment Opportunities in Lithium Industry - CITIC Construction Investment emphasizes the importance of resource self-sufficiency and the potential for significant production growth in the coming years [4] - Companies with high resource self-sufficiency are expected to have stable raw material supply and high margins, reducing risks associated with low-margin processing [4] - The report suggests that as lithium prices stabilize, companies with substantial production capacity growth will be favored [4] Company Developments - Tianqi Lithium is positioned as a key player in the metal lithium market, with a production capacity of 600 tons and an additional 1,000 tons under construction [5] - Ganfeng Lithium has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells and is collaborating with several leading companies to ensure stable supply [5] - CATL, a leader in solid-state battery technology, has successfully mass-produced batteries with energy densities reaching 400 Wh/kg and is advancing in solid-state battery development [6]

Group 1: Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with leading manufacturers issuing clear price hike notifications to customers starting from 2026 [1] - Some companies have already implemented price increases, while others are in negotiations, indicating that price hikes are becoming a trend to restore profit levels in the industry [1] Group 2: Battery Production and Demand - In November, domestic power battery installation reached 93.5 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 11.2% and a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [2] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 75.3 GWh of the total, representing 80.5% of the total installation, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2] - Cumulative battery installation from January to November reached 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.0%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries making up 81.2% of the total [2] Group 3: Lithium Demand Forecast - The global demand for lithium is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, achieving a near balance between supply and demand [3] - Predictions indicate a 30% increase in lithium demand, potentially reaching 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to grow by around 250,000 tons [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Lithium Industry - The lithium industry is focusing on resource self-sufficiency and low-cost quality resources, which are crucial for stable raw material supply and high margins [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with significant production growth potential and the ability to maintain operations during market downturns [4] Group 5: Company Developments - Tianqi Lithium has a production capacity of 600 tons of metal lithium and is building an additional 1,000 tons, ranking second globally [5] - Ganfeng Lithium has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells and is collaborating with leading companies, ensuring stable delivery amid rising storage demand [5] - CATL, a leader in solid-state batteries, is advancing its technology and production capabilities, with significant revenue contributions expected from its products [6]

碳酸锂行业经历深度调整后正迈入新周期。近段时间，碳酸锂期货主力合约上行并于11月19日盘中强势 突破10万元/吨大关，创出自去年6月份以来新高。截至记者发稿，尽管该合约价格有所回落，但仍在这 一关口附近震荡。市场数据显示，12月3日，碳酸锂期货主力合约处于9.25万至9.76万元/吨区间，收盘 价为9.37万元/吨。 有分析人士指出，碳酸锂期货市场价格出现上扬的背后，是产业格局优化、需求面好转等因素共同作用 的结果，反映出行业景气度正在回升。行业供需两旺的格局有望延续至年末，为产业链上下游企业带来 发展新机遇。 供需格局优化支撑锂价走强 放眼现货市场，碳酸锂现货报价也处于每吨9万—10万元区间。市场数据显示，12月3日，电池级碳酸锂 价格每吨在9.25万—9.62万元之间，均价9.435万元/吨。而在今年6月，电池级碳酸锂价格曾一度跌破6 万元/吨。 在业内人士看来，期现价格同步上涨现象的背后，是强需求预期与市场信心的双重支撑。下游储能与新 能源汽车市场的高速增长，叠加锂电应用场景向低空经济、人形机器人等领域延伸的多元化发展态势， 共同为碳酸锂消费提供了有力支撑。 广州期货股份有限公司分析师汤树彬在接受《中国 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Second China International Lithium Industry Conference was held in Chengdu, focusing on supply stability, supply chain resilience, innovation, and collaboration in the lithium industry [1] - Lithium prices have rebounded, with carbonate lithium futures and spot prices exceeding 90,000 yuan per ton, driven by optimistic demand forecasts, particularly in the energy storage sector [1][2] - The global energy storage market is expected to see significant growth, with an anticipated 268 GWh of new installations in 2025, representing a 48% year-on-year increase [1][2] Industry Trends - The lithium market is experiencing a favorable environment due to low inventory, high demand, and cost support, leading to a potential new upward cycle in lithium prices [2] - By 2026, global lithium demand is projected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, indicating a near balance in supply and demand [2] - Innovations in electric vehicle technology and the development of solid-state batteries are expected to enhance the industry's growth prospects [2][3] Technological Developments - Solid-state batteries are gaining attention for their safety and energy density advantages, with companies actively pursuing their commercialization [3][4] - Tianqi Lithium has launched a new lithium sulfide product that enhances the performance of solid-state battery electrolytes, which could accelerate the adoption of solid-state batteries [3] - Companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and CATL are making strides in solid-state battery production, with plans for mass production and product launches in the coming years [3][4] Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies that are leading in technology, have significant R&D investments, and show potential for industrialization in the solid-state battery sector [4] - Overcoming challenges such as conductivity, interface stability, and manufacturing costs will be crucial for the widespread commercial application of solid-state batteries [4]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 碳酸锂产业日报 2025/11/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 96,340.00 | +940.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -165,500.00 | -2032.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 478,054.00 | +134855.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -440.00 | -140.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 27,050.00 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock has dropped over 5% following a downgrade by Goldman Sachs, which reflects concerns about lithium market dynamics and pricing [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price fell by 5.19%, reaching HKD 48.26, with a trading volume of HKD 530 million [1] - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares from neutral to sell, citing risks of declining lithium spot prices due to poor short-term feedback from downstream markets and slowing inventory replenishment [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the benchmark spot price of lithium carbonate in China for the second half of 2025 down to USD 9,500 per ton, a 14% decrease from previous expectations [1] - Daiwa maintained a "underperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium, raising the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 53, reflecting a 22% discount for Ganfeng's A-shares [1] - Daiwa's supply-demand analysis indicates a projected global lithium surplus of 76,000 tons and 54,000 tons over the next two years, down from 124,000 tons last year [1] - Daiwa expects lithium prices in China to stabilize between RMB 75,000 and RMB 90,000 per ton next year, higher than earlier predictions of an average selling price of RMB 70,000 per ton for Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have experienced significant volatility, with the main contract dropping from over 100,000 yuan/ton to just above 90,000 yuan/ton, while the spot market remains relatively stable but shows signs of price decline [2][5] Price Trends - Since June, lithium carbonate prices have risen approximately 50%, from around 60,000 yuan/ton to just over 90,000 yuan/ton, with a peak of 99,300 yuan/ton on November 20 [3][4] - On November 21, the main futures contract fell by 9% to 91,000 yuan/ton, indicating a divergence between futures and spot prices [5][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate is expected to shift, with a slight surplus projected for 2026, but potential monthly mismatches due to non-linear growth in energy storage installations [2][6] - Forecasts indicate that China's lithium carbonate demand will increase from 53.4 million tons in 2023 to 121.2 million tons in 2025, while supply is expected to reach 119.8 million tons [5][6] Market Sentiment and Divergence - There are contrasting views within the industry regarding future demand growth, with some executives expressing skepticism about a 50% increase across the board, citing potential demand destruction from rising battery prices [4][5] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with major lithium producers maintaining normal production levels and showing reluctance to increase supply significantly until prices stabilize above 100,000 yuan/ton for an extended period [6][8] Storage Demand Influence - The demand for lithium carbonate is increasingly driven by the energy storage sector, with projections indicating a significant increase in storage battery production and market growth [6][7] - The global energy storage market is expected to see substantial growth, with anticipated shipments reaching 780 GWh in 2026, a 50% increase from previous years [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Strong demand is leading to a monthly shortage of lithium carbonate, with supply at approximately 115,000 tons and demand at 128,000 tons in November, resulting in a shortfall of about 13,000 tons, indicating a continuous destocking in the market [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The current supply of lithium carbonate is approximately 115,000 tons, while demand is at 128,000 tons, creating a shortage of around 13,000 tons [1] - The consumption during the off-season remains robust, with orders expected to support demand into next year, shifting the supply-demand imbalance from supply pressure to demand-driven [1] Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, the sustained growth in energy storage demand is expected to drive a price increase across the entire lithium battery supply chain, significantly improving the fundamental supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate [1] - Static forecasts indicate that global lithium resource supply will reach 2,089,000 tons and consumption will be 2,004,000 tons by 2026, resulting in a surplus of only 85,000 tons, which is a reduction compared to 2025 [1] - Considering the inventory buildup in the supply chain, a structural shortage of lithium is anticipated in 2026, with price drivers shifting from supply pressure to demand-driven increases [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures (LC2601.GFE) closed at 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton (-1.76%) from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1.45% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The current basis was -7,180 points, a negative basis (spot discount), weakening by 690 points from the previous day, and the basis has been weakening overall in the past 10 trading days. - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 26,611 lots, down 342 lots (-1.27%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have been decreasing overall in the past 10 trading days. - Social inventory has dropped to a low level. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The main contract closing price was 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 6,980 yuan/ton from the previous week; the main contract settlement price was 94,600 yuan/ton, up 1,940 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7,840 yuan/ton from the previous week. - **Lithium Ore**: The prices of lithium spodumene from different origins (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Mali) showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous day and week; the prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents in the Chinese market also increased. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 5,060 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide showed an upward trend, while some market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some ternary materials and precursors remained stable, while the price of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate increased. [6] 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts showed the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts presented the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Other Related Data**: Charts showed the changes in trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures. [7][10][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of copper rebounded slightly yesterday. In the medium and long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the marginal changes in demand and overseas liquidity [1]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc market oscillated at a high level yesterday. The supply - side pressure may be limited, and the demand is not outstanding. The LME zinc price has an upper limit, while the Shanghai zinc may be stronger than LME zinc, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price oscillates downward. The market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but the pressure is reduced compared with October. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the futures price oscillates downward. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the support of the spot price, the establishment of platform companies, production control, and the increase in demand orders. The futures should focus on the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The market sentiment has improved, and long positions can be held. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to be strong [7]. - **Aluminum (Alumina)**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level yesterday. The supply pressure is high, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: The electrolytic aluminum market oscillated at a high level yesterday. The macro - drive is strong, but the fundamental support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate between event - driven and weak fundamentals, with the main contract range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel market oscillated narrowly yesterday. The market is mixed with long and short factors. It is expected to oscillate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market continued to weaken yesterday. The supply pressure remains, the demand is not boosted, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market was strong yesterday. The short - term fundamentals provide support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. The main contract LC2601 is expected to oscillate and adjust. Pay attention to the marginal changes in demand after the peak season and the progress of large - factory复产 [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market oscillated strongly yesterday. With cost support and a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract range of 20,400 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various copper products increased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper rising 0.27% to 86,765 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 0.97% to 3,367 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and in September, the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.57% to 62.97 million tons [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.40% to 22,660 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to 4,958 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons. The zinc ingot social inventory in seven regions decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon were stable. The basis of some products increased, such as the basis of SI4210 increasing by 32.35% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price decreased by 3.33% to 51,930 yuan/ton. The silicon wafer price decreased significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In the week, the silicon wafer production decreased by 5.55% to 13.45 GW, and the polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% to 2.70 million tons [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price rose 0.66% to 287,700 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 1.13% to 14,819.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and in October, the SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [7]. Aluminum (Alumina) - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong increased by 0.36% to 2,795 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to 2,320 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons [9]. Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum) - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.60% to 21,620 yuan/ton. The import loss increased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons, and the import volume increased by 13.57% to 24.68 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 0.08% to 121,300 yuan/ton. The futures import loss increased by 1.86% to 1,859 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and the import volume increased by 124.36% to 38,164 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils decreased. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% to 912 yuan/nickel point [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose 1.92% to 82,300 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 858.62% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose 0.23% to 21,500 yuan/ton. The scrap - refined price difference of some products changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [16].