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新能源及有色金属周报:消费端仍有支撑,碳酸锂盘面维持震荡运行-20250928
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:40
新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 从库存端来看:根据SMM最新统计数据,现货库存为136825吨(上周为137531吨),其中冶炼厂库存为33492吨(上 周为34456吨),下游库存为60893吨(上周为59495吨),其他库存为 42440吨(上周为43580吨),总库存较上周降 低705 吨。库存继续发生转移,下游补库库存增加较多,冶炼厂库存减少。 从利润看:锂矿价格小幅波动,海外矿山挺价意愿不减,报价持续高企,外采原料企业依赖期货套保平衡盈亏, 锂云母原料价格已出现倒挂,回收黑粉原料供应偏紧,采购难度较大,锂辉石精矿价格企稳。自有矿源及盐湖提 锂企业成本优势较显著,仍保持较为稳定的利润空间。 氢氧化锂:根据百川统计数据,本周氢氧化锂产量 5450 吨,较上周产量环比小幅增加。上游锂辉石价格偏高,锂 盐生产企业面临较大的成本压力,部分工厂依然存在成本倒挂现象,从而制约了开工率的提升。此外,目前部分 产线尚处于计划内或计划外检修状态,在多方面因素的共同影响下,氢氧化锂市场的整体供应能力持续偏紧。国 内工业级氢氧化锂市场成交价格在 6.65-7.1 万元/吨之间,均价在 6.875 万元/吨; ...
盐湖股份(000792.SZ):4万吨/年基础锂盐一体化项目投料试车
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-28 07:43
格隆汇9月28日丨盐湖股份(000792.SZ)公布,为落实青海盐湖工业股份有限公司"十四五"生态盐湖产业 发展规划中"扩大锂"战略部署,公司此前启动投资建设4万吨/年基础锂盐一体化项目(具体详见《关于 投资新建4万吨/年基础锂盐一体化项目的公告》,2022-038)。截至本公告披露日,该项目已基本建 成,关键装置吸附提锂装置试车产出合格液,纳滤反渗透系统完成膜安装及水联动,沉锂及公辅工程完 成核心设备单机试车,正式进入投料试车阶段并产出合格的电池级碳酸锂产品。4万吨/年基础锂盐一体 化项目投料试车,将进一步提升公司锂盐产能规模,增强公司锂盐产品市场竞争力、盈利能力和抗风险 能力,为公司生态盐湖产业高质量发展提供核心支撑,为盐湖可持续发展注入了强劲动力。 ...
赣锋锂业子公司拟引入投资人 增资不超25亿元
Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium plans to raise up to 2.5 billion yuan through capital increase in its subsidiary Ganfeng Lithium Battery to enhance its financial strength and support its lithium ecosystem strategy [1][2] Group 1: Company Actions - Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary, Ganfeng Lithium Battery, intends to introduce investors for a capital increase, with a price set at 3 yuan per 1 yuan of registered capital [1] - The capital increase will not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring, thus not requiring shareholder approval [1] - The company aims to improve Ganfeng Lithium Battery's financial strength and reduce its debt ratio, which stood at 68.02% as of June 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Ganfeng Lithium reported a revenue of 8.376 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.65%, with a net loss of 531 million yuan [2] - The company's non-recurring net profit loss expanded to 913 million yuan due to market fluctuations in lithium products [2] - Despite the challenges, the company has seen a recovery in lithium carbonate prices since June, indicating a positive trend in the market [2] Group 3: Market Position and Outlook - Ganfeng Lithium's battery segment has been expanding, with stable supply partnerships established with leading industry players [2] - The company has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells, meeting the growing demand in the energy storage market [2] - Since July, Ganfeng Lithium's stock price has increased by over 56%, with a closing price of 55.73 yuan per share and a total market capitalization of 114.6 billion yuan as of September 25 [2]
碳酸锂数据日报-20250925
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:50
种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 75297 H 利 # 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -2519 78729 F 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -7944 IT V 《经济参考报》记者近日在青海省海西州大柴旦调查发现,青海柴达木兴华锂盐有限公司(简称"兴华公司")被举报非法掩埋大量工业危险 (简称"危废"),上级部门责令其在中央环保督察前"未督先改",该企业却突击将大量己偷埋的危废挖出并易地填理,涉及数量 态环境造成二次伤害。近期,全国非法倾倒处置固体废物专项整治行动启动,计划用三年时间集中开展严打严查。 日 t 污求方面,新能源车传统旺季将至,储能需求旺盛,碳酸锂社会库存持续去库,支撑期价。供给方面,产量整体增加,是压制期价的主要因 另外,周五新华社发布关于青海盐湖环保问题的文章,涉及的盐湖虽然基本没量,但需要注意,在需求端改善及江西矿山 市场是否会再次借机炒作供给端问题。 贡 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资设 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符 ...
碳酸锂数据日报-20250924
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 06:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Demand side: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the demand for energy storage is strong. The continuous reduction of lithium carbonate social inventory supports the futures price [3]. - Supply side: The overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3]. - Market speculation: Attention should be paid to whether the market will hype supply - side issues again due to demand improvement and environmental problems in Qinghai salt lakes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,850 yuan/ton, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,600 yuan/ton, and the difference between them is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Futures contract closing prices and their changes: Lithium carbonate 2605 at 73,780 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change; 2606 at 73,540 yuan/ton with a - 0.86% change; 2607 at 73,440 yuan/ton with a - 0.73% change; 2608 at 73,620 yuan/ton with a - 0.65% change; 2609 at 73,500 yuan/ton with a - 0.7% change [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 860 yuan/ton [1]. - Lithium mica prices vary by grade: 1165 yuan/ton for (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), 1900 yuan/ton for (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) [2]. - Phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone prices also vary by grade: 6130 yuan/ton for (Li20: 6% - 7%), 7265 yuan/ton for (Li20: 7% - 8%) [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,710 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 147,450 yuan/ton with a 200 - yuan change; 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,350 yuan/ton with a 150 - yuan change; 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 125,000 yuan/ton with a 150 - yuan change [2]. Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531 tons with a - 981 - ton change; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,456 tons with a - 1757 - ton change; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 59,495 tons with a 1216 - ton change; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,580 tons with a - 440 - ton change; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,449 tons with a 540 - ton change [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,536 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 2759 yuan/ton [3]. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 79,306 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 8521 yuan/ton [3]. Environmental Issue - Qinghai Chaidamu Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. was reported for illegally burying a large amount of industrial hazardous waste, and a national special rectification action on illegal dumping and disposal of solid waste has been launched [3].
新能源产业链月度策略:New Energy Industry Chain Daily Report-20250923
期货研究院 新能源产业链日度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Daily Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者: | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号: | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0015738 | | 联系方式: | 010-68578971 | | 作者: | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号: | F0289497 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0011019 | | 联系方式: | 010-68576697 | 投资咨询业务资格:京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间:2025年09月22日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂: 【市场逻辑】 现货方面,周一SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格73842元/吨,环比上 一工作日上涨308元/吨;电池级碳酸锂7.32-7.45万元/吨,均价7. 385万元/吨,环比上一工作日上涨350元/吨;工业级碳酸锂7.1-7. 22万元/吨,均价7.16万元/吨,环比上一工作日上涨350元/吨,现 货成交价格持续震荡上行态势。 据SMM ...
雅化集团20250922
2025-09-23 02:34
Summary of Yahua Group Conference Call Company Overview - Yahua Group operates primarily in two sectors: lithium salt and civil explosives [4][7] - The company has rapidly expanded its civil explosives business through mergers and acquisitions, establishing Yahua Civil Explosives Group in 2023 [2][4] Lithium Salt Business - Yahua Group's lithium salt business is affected by lithium price fluctuations, but the company aims to increase raw material self-sufficiency to over 50% and expand production capacity to 130,000 tons [2][5] - The company has secured high-quality resource supply rights both domestically and internationally, including a 28% stake in the Li Jiagou lithium mine and full control of the Kamativi lithium mine [2][12] - Current lithium salt production capacity is approximately 99,000 tons, with plans to expand to 130,000-170,000 tons [14] - Long-term supply agreements have been signed with major clients such as Tesla and CATL, enhancing the company's integrated supply chain advantage [14] Financial Projections - Net profit forecasts for Yahua Group are 600 million yuan in 2025, 1 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.25 billion yuan in 2027 [2][8] - The company has an equity incentive plan linked to net profit and sales growth, with specific performance targets for management [8][11] Market Trends - The lithium industry is showing signs of recovery, with prices rebounding from a low of approximately 60,000 yuan [9][10] - Supply-demand dynamics are expected to reverse in 2026-2027, potentially benefiting Yahua Group [10] Civil Explosives Business - The civil explosives industry is experiencing increased concentration, with a shift towards electronic detonators, which Yahua Group is well-positioned to benefit from due to its scale and government support [3][15] - The company has expanded its civil explosives business through acquisitions, including the purchase of Mianyang Jiuwan and other companies [7][17] - Yahua Group's electronic detonator capacity has ranked first in the industry for four consecutive years [18] Regional Development and Strategic Advantages - Yahua Group is leveraging its geographical advantages in the western regions of China, particularly in infrastructure projects like the Sichuan-Tibet Railway [19][20] - The company has developed explosives suitable for high-altitude and low-temperature conditions, enhancing its competitive edge in these regions [19] Valuation and Growth Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 20% annually from 2025 to 2027 in its civil explosives business, with a gross margin of 35% [21] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 580 million yuan, 970 million yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 22, 13, and 10 [22]
碳酸锂日评:低位震荡-20250923
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:26
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - On September 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure of upstream is not significant. The expected supply contraction has weakened, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to be vigilant about the downstream restocking node and the deadline for Jiangxi mining to submit a reserve report. The trading strategy is to recommend waiting and seeing. [1] Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On September 22, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with September 19, with decreases of 560, 540, 560, and 560 respectively. The trading volume was 396,645 lots (+26,286), and the open interest was 271,624 lots (-9,640). [1] Spot Market - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton compared with September 19. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased by 80 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, while the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,909 tons (-575), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 137,531 tons (-981). [1] Import Data - In August 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,469.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.79% and a year - on - year increase of 23.54%. Chile was the largest import source, and Argentina was the second - largest. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. On the demand side, last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In terms of terminal demand, in August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September. [1]
碳酸锂数据日报-20250922
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:13
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The approaching traditional peak season for new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand, along with continuous destocking of lithium carbonate social inventory, support the futures price. However, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price. Also, there is a need to watch out for potential supply - side speculation in the market due to demand improvement and the reported environmental issues in Qinghai salt lakes [3]. 3. Summary by Category Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 859 yuan, up 44 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) price is 1,150 yuan, up 45 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1,880 yuan, up 65 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) price is 6,090 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) price is 7,215 yuan, up 90 yuan [1][2]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - Futures contracts such as lithium carbonate 2510, 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602 all showed price increases, with涨幅 ranging from 1.57% to 1.79% [1]. Positive Electrode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,630 yuan, up 10 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 147,050 yuan, up 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,000 yuan, up 150 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 124,650 yuan, up 200 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531 tons, a decrease of 981 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,456 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,495 tons, an increase of 1,216 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,580 tons, a decrease of 440 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,484 tons, an increase of 130 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,527 yuan, with a profit of - 3,096 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 78,845 yuan, with a profit of - 8,402 yuan [3]. Environmental Issue - Qinghai Chaidamu Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. was reported for illegally burying a large amount of industrial hazardous waste, and the national special rectification action for illegal dumping and disposal of solid waste has been launched [3].
碳酸锂:储能需求强劲,偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 08:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a strong - running trend this week. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the strong demand in the domestic energy - storage market, although demand may slow down temporarily after the pre - National Day replenishment ends [1][3] - The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to conduct arbitrage, and it is suggested to carry out selling hedging for inventory later [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends - This week, the lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a strong - running trend. The 2511 contract closed at 73,960 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price rose 1,050 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton [1] - The SMM spot - futures basis (2511 contract) fell 1,750 yuan/ton to - 460 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was - 255 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2511 - 2601 contract spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Raw Materials**: In September, the shipments of Australian mines and Chilean lithium salts increased. In the first three weeks of August and September, Australian mines shipped 213,000/238,000 tons, and Chilean lithium salts shipped 17,000/20,000 tons [2] - **Supply**: The weekly output continued to increase and reached a record high of 20,363 tons. The output before the shutdown of sub - standard plants was 19.98 million tons. The output of spodumene, salt lakes, and recycling effectively made up for the reduction in mica output [2] - **Demand**: Benefiting from the capacity - based electricity price compensation, the domestic energy - storage market exceeded expectations in terms of volume. In August, the energy - storage winning bids reached 25.8 GW, a year - on - year increase of 520%. In September, the lithium - battery output is expected to be 168.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5%, including 130.1 GWh of LFP, a 6% month - on - month increase, and 32.8 GWh of ternary batteries, a 2% month - on - month increase. The 3C consumer end also exceeded expectations [2] - **Inventory**: The weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,500 tons. The upstream inventory dropped to an absolute low, while the downstream inventory increased to an absolute high. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 39,484 tons [2] 3.3 Market Outlook - The demand in the domestic energy - storage market far exceeds market expectations. Although the lithium - salt output has exceeded the level before the shutdown of sub - standard plants, the social inventory continues to decline, and the price trend shows a strong - fluctuating pattern. After the pre - National Day replenishment ends and the rush - buying demand before September 30 due to the subsidies of the US "Big and Beautiful" Act comes to an end, the demand is expected to slow down temporarily but still remain strong [3] 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Inter - period Trading**: The basis strengthens slightly, but the increase in warehouse receipts is obvious. Arbitrage is not recommended [4] - **Hedging**: As the basis is gradually repaired, it is recommended to conduct selling hedging for inventory later [5]