Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance in the lithium business faced pressure, while the civil explosives segment showed stable profitability [1] - The report anticipates a recovery in lithium prices in Q3, which may help the company return to profitability [8] - The company is expected to significantly increase its resource self-sufficiency rate to over 40% in 2025, driven by stable production from its African mines [8] - The civil explosives business is projected to grow by 10% in 2025, with strong performance in exports [8] - The report has adjusted the profit forecast for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 5.3 billion, 7.9 billion, and 12.6 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 107%, 48%, and 61% [8] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 34.2 billion, a decrease of 13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.4 billion, an increase of 32.9% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.9%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The report projects total revenue for 2025 to be 8.334 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.01% [9] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.66 [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium price is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend for about a month due to supply disturbances and potential demand growth. If downstream demand strengthens in September, lithium prices are likely to continue rising [3]. - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range between 85,000 and 95,000 yuan per ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Price Trends - The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2511 contract closed at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 9,940 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 10,800 yuan/ton to 82,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The SMM spot-futures basis (2509 contract) rose 520 yuan/ton to -4,220 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was -310 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton week-on-week. The 2509 - 2511 contract spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: After Yichun Times stopped mining, the lithium carbonate price strengthened. There are concerns about long - term production halts in smelting enterprises after using up equity and inventory ores. In Qinghai, mining license renewals and potential over - production issues may lead to production uncertainties in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Demand**: In August, the downstream production schedule demand is expected to improve significantly. The production schedule of cathode materials shows an 8.8% month - on - month increase for iron - lithium and a 9.2% increase for ternary materials. This week, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 216,000 units, down 11.84% week - on - week but up 0.93% year - on - year, with the growth rate significantly narrowing [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with the inventory at 142,000 tons, down 162 tons week - on - week. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 23,500 tons [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - **Outlook**: Due to the time needed for maritime replenishment of ore exports, lithium prices will likely remain strong for about a month. If downstream demand strengthens in September, a supply - to - demand procurement concern will form, and lithium prices are expected to stay strong [3]. - **Single - sided Trading**: The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - period Trading**: In the short term, due to supply shortages, a positive spread arbitrage is recommended. In the long term, with a negative long - term contract basis and an expected increase in warehouse receipts, a reverse spread arbitrage is suitable [5]. - **Hedging**: As prices are expected to rise, upstream enterprises are advised to set prices for sales and not to sell for hedging. Downstream enterprises are not advised to buy for hedging because the spot price is significantly lower than the futures price [5].

Group 1 - The lithium industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with upstream supply clearing but downstream demand not fully recovering, prompting the search for a new balance [1] - The lithium battery industry is recognized as a key driver for global energy transition under China's dual carbon goals, but challenges such as supply-demand mismatch, intense competition, and technological bottlenecks remain [1] - Industry experts emphasize the need for collaboration and innovation to overcome internal competition and establish a healthy development ecosystem [3] Group 2 - Major lithium salt companies are implementing production halts and technical upgrades to reduce costs and ensure stable operations [2] - Regulatory measures are being introduced in regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai to help the industry reduce capacity by standardizing lithium resource production [2] - The lithium salt industry is increasingly focusing on innovation to improve efficiency and reduce costs, with advancements in lithium extraction technologies being highlighted [4][5] Group 3 - The cost of lithium extraction from African mines is higher than expected due to transportation and operational costs, leading to a focus on improving domestic production efficiency [4] - Companies are exploring various lithium extraction technologies, such as adsorption and membrane methods, to enhance recovery rates and product quality [4][6] - As lithium prices decline, companies are prioritizing cost reduction and improving recovery rates, with some achieving up to 99.9% lithium recovery through advanced extraction techniques [5][6]

红塔期货 HONGTAFUTURES 基本面偏弱，难以持续反弹 2025年8月碳酸锂月报 红塔期货 研究员：罗明辉 从业资格号：F0268405 投资咨询号：Z0010226 Email：luominghui@hongtaqh.com 投资咨询业务资格 云证监许可[2012]291号 以持续反弹 2025年8月5日 7月碳酸锂期价反弹收阳。截止2025年8月1日，碳酸锂现货价为70300元/吨，期货价格 收于68920元/吨，基差为1380元/吨。现货反弹幅度大于期货。现货升水期货。 碳酸锂 期现方面 据SMM 数据，2025年7月，国内碳酸锂月度总产量首次突破8万吨大关，环比增长4%， 同比大幅增长26%。产量增长的主要驱动力在于期货市场套保机会显现，促使此前低开 工率的锂盐企业陆续复产，行业整体供给能力显著回升。预计8月碳酸锂总产量仍具增长 潜力。6月我国碳酸锂呈现 "进口减、出口增" 格局。2025年6月我国碳酸锂进口总量为 1.8万吨，环比减少16.3%。6月我国出口碳酸锂430吨，环比增加49.8%。 基本面偏弱，难 供需情况 核心观点 下游需求整体保持平稳。据SMM 数据，展望8月，动力端，下游" ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily review of lithium carbonate on August 6, 2025, highlighting fast - paced sentiment changes and high volatility [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - On August 5, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 67300 yuan/ton, 67680 yuan/ton, 67840 yuan/ton, and 67840 yuan/ton respectively, showing decreases compared to the previous day [3] - The trading volume of the active contract was 437207 lots, an increase of 189309 lots; the open interest was 232062 lots, an increase of 24292 lots; and the inventory was 14443 tons, an increase of 1840 tons [3] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [3] - The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.20 dollars/kg, remaining unchanged; the average price of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide was 65540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the average price of domestic battery - grade fine - powder lithium hydroxide was 70690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [3] Other Lithium - Related Products - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1085 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1710 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3] - The average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium (99.95% domestic) was 52350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton [3] Price Spreads - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 3360 yuan/ton, an increase of 930 yuan/ton [3] - The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 5660 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3] Group 3: Industry Situation Supply - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased; the price of spodumene concentrate remained flat, and the price of lithium mica remained flat [3] Demand - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the production schedule of ternary materials increased; in August, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the production of lithium cobalt oxide increased [3] - Last week, the production of power batteries decreased; in July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C product shipments were average; in August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 14443 tons, an increase of 1840 tons; the social inventory situation was that smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while the downstream increased inventory [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The fundamentals remain weak, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the flow of inventory accumulated during the previous price increase [3] - It is recommended that previous short positions be appropriately closed for profit [3]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the lithium salt production expansion project by Zhongmin Resources signifies a strategic move towards cost reduction, technological upgrade, and enhanced competitiveness in the lithium salt industry [1] Company Summary - Zhongmin Resources is set to increase its lithium salt production capacity from 66,000 tons per year to 71,000 tons with the completion of the new project [1] - The total investment for the new project is 121 million yuan, focusing on the production of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, with a production line upgrade aimed at reducing production costs [1] - The project will involve a six-month shutdown for maintenance and technological upgrades, optimizing traditional roasting equipment and processing methods [1] Industry Summary - The expansion project aligns with the industry's shift towards green and low-carbon development models, reflecting a broader trend in the lithium salt sector [1] - The move is expected to enhance the overall competitiveness of Zhongmin Resources in the lithium salt market, which is crucial given the increasing demand for lithium in battery production [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lithium carbonate futures prices have fallen below 70,000 yuan/ton, with a closing price of 68,900 yuan/ton on August 1, reflecting a weekly decline of 5.85% [1] - The domestic lithium carbonate production in July exceeded 80,000 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 4%, primarily due to significant recovery in spodumene production and the release of recycling capacity [3] - Demand for lithium carbonate is under pressure, with retail sales of new energy vehicles in July declining by 17% month-on-month, and the prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showing slight decreases [3] Group 2 - The market outlook suggests that lithium carbonate prices are likely to remain weak in the short term, with a focus on the production changes of mica and salt lake resources, which could influence price movements [3] - Current market conditions indicate high supply and inventory levels for lithium carbonate, with limited support for prices due to declining demand growth [4] - The potential for price increases in the future may depend on the implementation of anti-involution policies, resource clearing in the upstream sector, and the resolution of price wars within the industry [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.678 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.74% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 38.8% to 1.800 billion yuan [2][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.569 billion yuan, as part of its profit distribution proposal [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the reporting period was 1,678,141,937.30 yuan, down from 1,761,658,045.18 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.74% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1,800,205,233.31 yuan, up from 1,296,993,823.01 yuan, marking an increase of 38.80% [3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1,808,397,987.46 yuan, a rise of 41.55% from 1,277,569,272.97 yuan [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 834,076,232.24 yuan, significantly increasing by 137.19% compared to 351,655,943.90 yuan in the previous year [3] - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 1.1526 yuan, up 39.57% from 0.8258 yuan [3] - The weighted average return on equity increased to 12.27% from 9.84%, a rise of 2.43% [3] Asset and Equity Growth - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were 16,893,419,019.81 yuan, up 12.00% from 15,083,281,912.76 yuan at the end of the previous year [3] - Net assets attributable to shareholders increased to 15,723,374,215.98 yuan, a growth of 13.40% from 13,865,071,905.51 yuan [3] Business Development - The company focuses on the development and utilization of potassium and lithium resources, particularly from the Qarhan Salt Lake in Qinghai [2][4] - The chloride potassium business showed strong performance with an average selling price increasing by 25.57% and a gross margin of 61.84% [2][4] - The lithium carbonate business faced price fluctuations but improved product quality through process optimization [2][4] - The investment in Tibet Julong Copper Industry contributed 1.264 billion yuan in investment income, supporting profit growth [2][4] Strategic Initiatives - The company has made significant progress in the Xizang Mami Cuo Salt Lake project, obtaining a mining license and entering the construction phase, which is expected to significantly enhance lithium carbonate production capacity [4] - The Laos potassium salt mine project is also advancing steadily, further solidifying the company's position in the global potassium fertilizer market [4] - The change in control to Zijin Mining's subsidiary has introduced international experience to the company, prompting governance reforms and the initiation of a second employee stock ownership plan to enhance team motivation [4]

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining reported a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with a decrease in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, focusing on potassium and lithium resource development while navigating regulatory challenges [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, while net profit reached 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 38.8% [1]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,845 yuan/ton, up 25.57% year-on-year, while the average sales cost was 996 yuan/ton, down 7.36% [2]. - The company reported potassium chloride production of 485,200 tons and sales of 535,900 tons, achieving 48.52% and 56.41% of the annual targets, respectively [2]. Business Operations - Cangge Mining is focusing on high-level development of salt lake resources, emphasizing cost control, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement [1]. - In the lithium carbonate segment, the company produced 5,170 tons and sold 4,470 tons, meeting 47.00% and 40.64% of the annual targets, respectively [2]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate was 67,470 yuan/ton, while the average sales cost was 41,478 yuan/ton, leading to a revenue of 267 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.90% [2]. Strategic Developments - Cangge Mining's investment in Jilong Copper Industry yielded a profit of 1.264 billion yuan, accounting for 70.22% of the company's net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 47.82% [3]. - The company is advancing the Xizang Mami Cuo project, having received necessary approvals and permits, with construction expected to start in Q3 2025 [3]. - Following a change in control to Zijin Mining, the company has appointed a new board and management team with diverse expertise in mining development and corporate governance [4]. Regulatory Compliance - The company has halted lithium resource development in response to regulatory notifications and is conducting a compliance review [4][5]. - Cangge Mining is actively engaging with regulatory authorities regarding the compliance of its lithium resource development activities and is working on the renewal of mining licenses [5].

Group 1 - The company, Yongshan Lithium Industry (603399.SH), confirmed that it has not issued any announcement regarding the suspension and maintenance of its lithium salt production line in August [2] - The company's lithium salt business segment is currently operating well [2]