Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly in November, breaking the important threshold of 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics and demand-supply narratives [1][2][9]. Group 1: Price Movement - Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 102,500 yuan/ton on November 20, 2023, after starting at 78,060 yuan/ton on November 5, marking a substantial increase [2][3]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate, LC2601, saw a remarkable increase of 19.26% in November, making it the top performer in the commodity market [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the energy storage and power battery sectors, with expectations that global lithium demand will reach 2 million tons by 2026 [1][3]. - The recent surge in demand is attributed to the rapid growth in renewable energy integration and electric vehicle production, with predictions of a 30% increase in lithium demand by 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are emerging, particularly in major lithium production areas like Jiangxi, where environmental regulations and power supply issues have reduced operational rates to around 55% [8][9]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, with registered warehouse receipts dropping from 42,400 contracts in early October to 27,100 contracts by November 26, indicating tightening supply conditions [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market sentiment has been bolstered by optimistic forecasts from leading companies in the lithium sector, contributing to increased trading activity and speculation in the futures market [4][5]. - The trading volume for lithium carbonate futures reached a record high of 25.06 million contracts in November, reflecting heightened market activity and investor interest [4]. Group 5: Future Price Projections - Analysts suggest that while prices could potentially reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton under extreme conditions, such scenarios depend on various factors including supply disruptions and unexpected demand surges [10][11]. - A more balanced scenario predicts a slight oversupply in 2025, with average prices likely returning to the range of 70,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton based on historical trends and cost structures [10].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Daily Report (November 21, 2025) [1] - Report Type: Daily Report - Industry: Carbonate Lithium Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The carbon - lithium futures 2601 contract rose 0.84% to 98,980 yuan/ton yesterday. Spot prices of battery - grade carbonate lithium, industrial - grade carbonate lithium, and battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide all increased. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 150 tons to 26,916 tons [3]. - On the supply side, weekly production increased. In October, China's carbonate lithium imports rose. On the demand side, the weekly production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased, with different inventory changes. Carbonate lithium social inventory has been decreasing for 14 weeks [3]. - In November, the inventory is being depleted rapidly. With the increase in prices, spot trading is sluggish. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 100,000 - yuan mark and positions, and risks such as potential market sentiment weakening, power - end off - seasons, uncertain resumption of Jiangxi lithium mines, and large contract positions should be vigilant [3]. Summary by Section 1. Research Views - **Price Changes**: Futures 2601 contract rose 0.84% to 98,980 yuan/ton. Battery - grade carbonate lithium average price increased 2,400 yuan/ton to 91,300 yuan/ton, industrial - grade to 88,900 yuan/ton, and battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide to 80,580 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipt inventory increased by 150 tons to 26,916 tons [3]. - **Supply - side Situation**: Weekly production increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons. In October, imports were 23,800 tons, up 21.9% month - on - month and 3.0% year - on - year [3]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Ternary material weekly production increased by 118 tons to 19,002 tons, inventory by 79 tons to 19,290 tons. Lithium iron phosphate weekly production increased by 118 tons, inventory decreased by 2,154 tons [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: Social inventory decreased for 14 weeks to 118,400 tons, turnover days dropped to 26.8 days. Downstream inventory decreased by 4,336 tons, other环节 inventory increased by 4,450 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 2,166 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: In November, inventory depletion continued. Spot trading was cold as prices rose. Attention should be paid to potential risks [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Price Changes**: Most products in the lithium - battery industry chain had price changes. For example, lithium ore prices generally increased, and so did lithium salts and some other products [5]. - **Price Differences**: Some price differences also changed, such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide and carbonate lithium [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as lithium - spodumene concentrate and lithium - mica [6][7][8][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Display price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium, etc. [10][11][12][13][14][15]. - **Price Differences**: Illustrate the trends of various price differences in the industry [17][18][20][21]. - **Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Show price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, etc. [23][25][26][27][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Present price trends of various lithium - battery cells and batteries [31][32][33][34]. - **Inventory**: Display inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other环节 [36][37][38][39]. - **Production Costs**: Illustrate the trends of production profits from different raw materials [40][41]. 4. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research [44][45]. 5. Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. Company phone: 021 - 80212222, fax: 021 - 80212200, and customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 [48][49].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The terminal demand is strong, the de - stocking amplitude is increasing, and the lower - end support is strengthening. Additionally, the mine end restricts the increase in lithium salt production, and the upper - end pressure is released slowly. Therefore, lithium carbonate is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 88,900 yuan, up 1,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 86,500 yuan, up 1,450 yuan [1]. - Futures contracts: The closing prices of lithium carbonate 2512, 2601, 2602, 2603, and 2604 are 99,060 yuan (up 4.63%), 99,300 yuan (up 4.97%), 99,380 yuan (up 4.94%), 99,300 yuan (up 4.99%), and 100,260 yuan (up 5.38%) respectively [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,086 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars/ton [1]. - Lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 1,625 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 2,575 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) average price is 8,950 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) average price is 10,400 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 38,165 yuan, up 365 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,150 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 143,050 yuan, up 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 143,350 yuan, up 400 yuan [2]. Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 4,280 yuan, down 10,400 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 140 yuan, down 240 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, down 200 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 120,472 tons, down 3,481 tons; the smelter weekly inventory is 28,270 tons, down 2,445 tons; the downstream weekly inventory is 48,772 tons, down 3,236 tons; other weekly inventory is 50,000 tons, up 4,343 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 155 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 89,477 yuan, and the profit is - 1,822 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 94,173 yuan, and the profit is - 8,745 yuan [2]. Market Events - On November 19, Liontown held a lithium spodumene concentrate auction. The auction target was 10,000 wet tons of 5.2% lithium spodumene, and the final transaction price was CIF SC6 1,254 dollars/dry ton. The goods are expected to be shipped in the first half of January 2026 [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standard for relevant lithium carbonate futures contracts. Starting from the trading time on November 20, 2025, the trading fee standard for the lithium carbonate futures LC2601 contract was adjusted to 0.012% of the transaction amount, and the intraday flat - today fee standard was also adjusted to 0.012% of the transaction amount [2]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) announced that it plans to sign a "Cooperation Framework Agreement from 2026 - 2030" with Huayou Holdings Group for lithium salt product business cooperation. Huayou Holdings Group is expected to purchase 221,400 tons of lithium salt products from the company from 2026 to 2030 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of lithium carbonate shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 81,280 - 83,280 [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 104,979 tons, a 0.61% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [7][8][10]. - **Basis**: On November 3rd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [10]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 80,421 yuan/ton, a 0.25% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 557 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 84,985 yuan/ton, an 0.80% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,158 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. It is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: In September 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 19,597 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a 12.26% month - on - month increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [10]. - **Likely Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply at the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: Most lithium - related product prices showed an upward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 80,550 yuan/ton to 81,000 yuan/ton, a 0.56% increase [15]. - **Supply - demand Data**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73% month - on - month, and the monthly import volume decreased by 10.30% month - on - month. The monthly net import volume decreased by 9.46% month - on - month, and the supply - demand balance was in a deficit state [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed certain fluctuations, and the production of domestic sample lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica also changed over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also showed different trends [25]. - **Supply - demand Balance Table**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium ore showed a state of deficit in most months, with fluctuations in production, import, and demand [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) showed different trends, and the monthly production capacity also changed over time. The amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China also showed a changing trend [29][31]. - **Supply - demand Balance Table**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a state of deficit in most months, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends, and the export volume also changed over time [37]. - **Supply - demand Balance Table**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed a state of deficit in some months and a surplus in others, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - profit - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds (such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate) showed different trends over time [43][45][48]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors (smelters, downstream, and others) showed different trends, with the overall inventory showing a decreasing trend last week [50]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time, and the price and cost of batteries also changed [54][56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices and Production**: The price, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time, and the supply - demand balance also fluctuated [59][62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Prices and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time, and the cost - profit situation also changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - lithium - **Prices and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends over time, and the cost - profit situation also changed [69][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time, and the retail - wholesale ratio and inventory index also changed [77][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 23, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 4.17% to 79,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 74,800 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton to 72,550 yuan/ton. The inventory of warehouse receipts decreased by 260 tons to 28,759 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 242 tons to 21,308 tons. In September, China imported 710,000 physical tons of spodumene, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%, equivalent to about 67,000 tons of LCE; the import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3%. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials increased by 519 tons to 17,766 tons, and the inventory increased by 629 tons to 18,592 tons; the weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1,264 tons to 86,303 tons, and the inventory increased by 1,529 tons to 104,347 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons [3]. - Recently, there have been disturbances in the supply - side news. Demand is still in the peak season. The social inventory and warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate have continued to decline. Coupled with the firm price of lithium ore, the price support has been gradually consolidated, and the bottom price has been raised. With the warming of macro - sentiment, the price may still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still an expectation of project resumption [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of most products in the lithium - battery industry chain increased on October 23, 2025. For example, the main contract closing price of futures rose by 2,820 yuan/ton to 79,940 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products also showed varying degrees of increase [5]. - There were also changes in price differences. For example, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 300 yuan/ton to - 1,420 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - The report provides charts of the prices of lithium ore products such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from January 2024 to October 2025, including lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) [8][9]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts show the prices of lithium products such as metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from January 2024 to October 2025 [10][11][12]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - The report presents charts of price differences including the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from January 2024 to October 2025 [17][18]. 3.2.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts show the prices of precursors and cathode materials such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from January 2024 to October 2025 [24][25][27]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - The report includes charts of lithium battery prices such as 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, lithium cobalt oxide battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from January 2024 to October 2025 [33][34][35]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The report provides charts of lithium carbonate inventory in downstream, smelter, and other links from March to October 2025 [38][39][40]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - A chart shows the production profit of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as recycled ternary pole piece black powder, recycled lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from January 2024 to October 2025 [42][43]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team of Everbright Futures Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the field of non - ferrous metals research [46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch [12]. - In the future, it is expected that supply will increase in the next month, demand will strengthen, and inventory may decrease. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,820 - 73,620 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 73,330 yuan/ton, a 0.02% daily decrease; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 75,178 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged daily. The recycling end has a lower production enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has a sufficient profit - making space and strong production motivation [9]. - **Basis**: On October 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries are provided, including their current values, previous values, changes, and change rates. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5.98% [15]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: Information on weekly and monthly operating rates, production costs, production profits, production volumes, export and import volumes, and supply - demand balances of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related products is presented [18][19]. - **Price and Inventory Trends**: The report shows the price trends of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products, as well as the inventory trends of lithium carbonate in different periods and from different sources [21][25][31]. - **Cost - Profit Analysis**: The cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds, such as purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are analyzed [45][47][50]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, are presented [52]. - **Demand Analysis**: The report provides information on the demand for lithium batteries, including battery prices, production volumes, shipments, and exports, as well as the demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate, and new energy vehicles [56][61][71][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand, with high supply and relatively weak demand. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,700 - 73,780. The cost of lithium compounds is generally high, and most production methods are in a loss - making state. The supply of lithium resources is expected to increase in the future, while the demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily View - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, a 0.55% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 1,590 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 77,139 yuan/ton, a 0.85% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 6,648 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The prices of most lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased, and the basis of most contracts increased. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.68% [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate generally increased. The production of lithium ore, including spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake lithium, also showed different trends of change. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, while the import volume of lithium carbonate increased [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the penetration rate also increased slightly. The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries also showed an upward trend. The demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also changed to varying degrees [18][53]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.48%. The inventory of smelters increased by 3.75%, the downstream inventory decreased by 1.85%, and other inventories decreased by 5.07% [17].

Report Title - 2025 Q4 Lithium Carbonate Strategy Report [1] Report Date - September 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In the first three quarters of this year, the lithium carbonate futures price bottomed out and stabilized. After reaching a low of 58,000 yuan/ton in late June, the price strengthened due to supply-side disturbances. The supply of lithium carbonate increased by over 40% year-on-year, while downstream demand showed rapid growth, especially in the output of lithium iron phosphate. The total inventory turnover days have decreased, but downstream inventory has increased significantly. As the National Day approaches, the pre-holiday restocking momentum will gradually weaken. The issue of lithium mine mining license changes in Jiangxi after the holiday remains uncertain, which affects market sentiment. The price center hovers around 73,000 yuan/ton, with increased volatility. If the projects in Jiangxi resume production without issues, the bullish logic will be further weakened, and the price trend will depend more on demand. If production cannot resume as scheduled or other projects shut down, the price center will continue to rise. Considering that 2026 is expected to be the last major year of supply capacity expansion in this cycle, the supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year. A new cycle will require further demand growth [7]. - The price range is expected to be between 60,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Directory 1 Price, Spread, and Positioning - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 2 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import-Export Profit - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 3 Inventory - As of the end of September, the social inventory of lithium carbonate was about 137,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the peak of 143,000 tons in July. The total inventory turnover days decreased to 39 days [6][30] 4 Supply 4.1 Global Lithium Resource Supply and Cost - In 2025, the global lithium resource supply (including recycling) is expected to be 1.651 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.022 million tons. The 80th percentile of the含税 cash cost of lithium resources is about 60,000 yuan/ton, and the 90th percentile is 65,000 yuan/ton [10][36] 4.2 Lithium Ore Production, Import, and Chilean Shipment - From January to August 2025, the domestic lithium ore production increased by 44% month-on-month to 145,000 tons, with a significant increase in spodumene and lepidolite. The cumulative import of lithium concentrate in China from January to August 2025 was 3.85 million tons, unchanged year-on-year. Imports from Canada increased significantly, those from Australia increased slightly, and those from Zimbabwe decreased significantly. From January to August 2025, Chile's shipment of lithium sulfate to China increased by 127% year-on-year to 60,000 tons [10][45][48] 4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium carbonate production increased by 41.6% year-on-year to 683,100 tons, with a significant increase in lithium extraction from spodumene. From January to August, the cumulative import increased by 4% year-on-year to 150,000 tons [10][58] 4.4 Lithium Hydroxide Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hydroxide production decreased by 21% year-on-year to 214,000 tons [10][70] 4.5 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hexafluorophosphate production increased by 40% year-on-year to 176,000 tons [10][73] 4.6 Waste Recycling - From January to August 2025, waste recycling increased by 8% year-on-year to 180,000 tons [10][76] 5 Demand 5.1 Total Demand - From January to September 2025, the two major cathode materials consumed a total of 697,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 51%. All demand consumed 826,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 44% [10][83] 5.2 Specific Materials - From January to September 2025, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year-on-year at 620,000 tons. The production of ternary materials increased by 11% year-on-year to 567,000 tons. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 66% year-on-year to 2.513 million tons. The production of cobalt acid lithium increased by 30% year-on-year to 86,000 tons, and the production of manganese acid lithium increased by 25% year-on-year to 105,000 tons [10][88][91][94][97] 5.3 Battery Production - From January to August 2025, the battery cell production increased by 50% year-on-year to 1,050 GWh, with power battery cells increasing by 47% and accounting for about 71%, and lithium iron phosphate power battery cells accounting for 70%. Energy storage battery cells increased by 59%. The lithium battery production increased by 48% year-on-year to 1,105 GWh, with lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 65%. The lithium battery installation increased by 43% year-on-year to 418 GWh, with LFP increasing by 65% to 340.5 GWh and NCM decreasing by 10% to 77.3 GWh [10][12][101][103][105] 5.4 Terminal Demand - **China's New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 7.556 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a retail penetration rate of 51% and an export volume of 2.02 million, a year-on-year increase of 51%. In September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 58% for the first time. From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, new energy vehicles will enjoy a 50% reduction in vehicle purchase tax [10][12][109] - **US New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, US automobile sales remained at 10.55 million year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 5% to 1.03 million, with a penetration rate increase of 0.4 pcts to 9.8%. The US House of Representatives passed a tax and expenditure reform bill, and the federal tax credit for new electric vehicles ($7,500) and used electric vehicles ($4,000) will end on September 30 [10][12][111] - **European New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, European automobile sales increased by 0.4 to 8.69 million, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% to 2.32 million, with a penetration rate increase of 4 pcts to 27% [10][12][117] - **Energy Storage**: From January to August 2025, the shipment of energy storage battery cells in China increased by 71% year-on-year to 307.45 GWh, and the global energy storage market is booming [10][12][119] 6 Supply-Demand Balance - Supply disturbances have raised the bottom price, and the next cycle will be driven by demand. The supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year [7][12][132]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including market data and macro - industry news. It shows that lithium carbonate production continues to increase and the market is in an oscillatory state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 74,040, with a change of 1,160 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 342,719, down 2,502 from T - 1; the open interest was 261,141, up 487 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 74,000, with a change of 1,140 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 85,570, down 1,336 from T - 1; the open interest was 178,347, down 8 from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 40,309, up 560 from T - 1 [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 290, down 1,260 from T - 1; the spot - 2601 was - 250, down 1,240 from T - 1; the 2511 - 2601 basis was 40, up 20 from T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,250, unchanged from T - 1; the spot - CIF was 6,772, down 132 from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 856, unchanged from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,875, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750, down 100 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500, down 100 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week's lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, an increase of 153 tons from last week. The industry inventory was 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons from last week [2]. - **Project News**: The 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project of the green comprehensive development and utilization of Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet was officially put into production on September 20 - 24, 2025 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a bottom. Although the supply pressure remains as the weekly production reached a record high last week, the demand growth is higher than the supply, leading to inventory reduction. It is expected that it is difficult for lithium carbonate to open a downward space in the short - term [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures hit a bottom and then rebounded. The main contract dropped to a minimum of 72,360 during the session. All industrial products fell during the session, and lithium carbonate futures followed suit, but it turned positive first driven by downstream point - price purchases at low points. The spot electric carbon price remained flat at 73,850, and the spot still had a slight premium over the futures. The price of Australian ore remained flat at 832.5, and the price of lithium mica remained flat at 1,900. The production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 2,759, and the production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium mica remained flat at 8,521. Although salt plants are currently making losses, it does not affect their production enthusiasm [10]. 3.2. Industry News - On September 22, Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to the Comptroller General's Office (CGR) to approve the modification of the contract for the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA and the OMA mineral lease contract, extending the contract validity to 2030. It also submitted a new mineral lease contract for the Atacama Salt Lake with Codelco and its subsidiary Minera Tarar SpA, with a contract validity from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Field in northern Chile this year, marking the local's first large - scale entry into lithium production [13]. - Jiuzhou Hi - Tech (300631.SZ) announced that it signed a procurement contract worth 81.5 million yuan (including 13% VAT), with a tax - free amount of 72.1239 million yuan, with SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. for the "Membrane Treatment System Procurement" project of the expansion and renovation project for comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake. The signing of this contract is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future performance [13].