碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约张 2.46%至 145000 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 5000 元/吨至 138500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 5000 元/吨至 135000 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗 颗粒）上涨 4500 元/吨至 128500 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 590 吨至 25770 吨。 2. 消息面，工业和信息化部（下称"工信部"）、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局和国家能源局日前联合 召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，研究部署进一步规范动力和储能电池产业竞争秩序工作。 3. 供给端，周度产量环比增加 115 吨至 22535 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 35 吨至 13959 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 20 吨至 2956 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 40 吨至 3185 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 20 吨至 2435 吨。2026 年 1 月碳酸锂产量预计环比下降 1.2%至 97970 吨。需求端，2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract hit the daily limit at 137,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 8,000 yuan/ton to 127,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 7,250 yuan/ton to 124,250 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 6,700 yuan/ton to 117,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,860 tons to 23,141 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. In January 2026, the lithium carbonate output is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. In terms of demand, in January 2026, the output of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4.43% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10.03% month - on - month to 363,400 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons [3]. - There was a resonance between stocks and commodities. For lithium carbonate futures, funds are more sensitive to bullish news. Due to geopolitical and policy factors, the market is worried about the actual supply of lithium resources. If the adjustment of the industrial pricing mechanism progresses smoothly, the cathode production schedule may need to be revised upwards. The price is likely to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 137,940 yuan/ton on January 6, 2026, up 7,960 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 134,360 yuan/ton, up 7,360 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,640 US dollars/ton, up 105 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 2,475 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 127,500 yuan/ton, up 8,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 124,250 yuan/ton, up 7,250 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 117,500 yuan/ton, up 6,700 yuan [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 161,500 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan. The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of some battery cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9] 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17] 3.2.3 Spreads - Charts 11 - 22 show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., as well as the basis from 2024 to 2026 [17][18][22] 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [24][26][28] 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, lithium cobaltate battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [30][34] 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts 25 - 28 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, other links, and the production cost trends from 2024 to 2026 [36][38][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a trend where the main contract is oscillating stronger. The fundamentals are in a stage of increasing supply and stable high - level demand. The industry inventory is continuously decreasing, and the outlook is positive. In the options market, the sentiment is bearish with a slightly rising implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The trading strategy is to trade lightly with a slightly stronger oscillation and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 114,380 yuan/ton, up 2980 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 146,949 hands, up 8070 hands; the position of the main contract is 671,889 hands, up 3060 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,580 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZFE are 16,411 hands/ton, up 900 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan/ton, up 1350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,350 yuan/ton, up 1300 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 15,380 yuan/ton, down 1630 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 1320 US dollars; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone is 12,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,575 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2450 tons; the monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1825.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged. The monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate (daily) is 37,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 346,600 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary materials (811 type) in China is 167,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (622 power type) in China is 148,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary materials (523 single - crystal type) in China is 159,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 40,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 63%, down 1%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the cumulative sales are 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the monthly export volume is 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 2.315 million units, up 1.174 million units [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 113,809 contracts, down 5198; the total holding of put options is 141,148 contracts, up 13,277; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 124.02%, up 16.5735%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.40%, up 0.0170% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In November 2025, China imported 22,055 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 219,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8%. In November, China exported 759 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 209% and a year - on - year increase of 248%. From January to November, the cumulative export was 4378 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.6% [2] - In November 2025, China's spodumene import volume reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of incremental imports, with 425,000 tons imported in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44%, accounting for 58% of the total import [2] - In November 2025, China's lithium hydroxide export volume was 3357 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17% and a year - on - year decrease of 39%. Exports to South Korea and Japan accounted for 87% of the total export volume. In November, China imported 1420 tons of lithium hydroxide, a month - on - month increase of 11% [2] - The resumption of production at Ningde Times' Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine has new progress. On December 19, the Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information publicity for the mining project of the lithium mine [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On December 17, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 7.61% to 108,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 97,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 94,450 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 85,480 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 350 tons to 15,636 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene increased by 260 tons to 13,744 tons, the production from lithium mica decreased by 200 tons to 2,876 tons, the production from salt lakes decreased by 15 tons to 3,075 tons, and the production from recycled materials increased by 14 tons to 2,303 tons. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 384 tons to 18,313 tons, and the inventory decreased by 318 tons to 18,524 tons. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,336 tons to 94,144 tons, and the inventory decreased by 23 tons to 103,658 tons. The production of ternary materials in December is expected to decline by 7% month-on-month to 78,280 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% month-on-month to 410,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 957 tons to 42,738 tons, other环节 inventory increasing by 430 tons to 49,570 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,606 tons to 19,161 tons [3]. - The cancellation of mining licenses is more of a follow-up to the issue of compliant lithium ore mining, not a contraction of lithium resource supply. Recently, the weekly social inventory has continued to decline, and the inventory turnover days decreased by 0.5 days week-on-week to 26.5 days. Due to recent overseas resource disturbances and the weakening expectation of the resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo Mine, the expected negative factors did not materialize as scheduled. In the future, if the resumption of lithium ore projects in Jiangxi is combined with seasonal off - peak factors, it may lead to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed or even inventory accumulation, and the price may still have a callback probability. However, under the strong demand expectation, the downstream's willingness to stock up may also be relatively strong, and the overall price performance may be more likely to rise than to fall. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm, the decline in production scheduling, and whether the strong demand next year can be verified [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Futures and spot prices: The lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 7.61% to 108,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 97,050 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 94,450 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 1,100 yuan/ton to 85,480 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 350 tons to 15,636 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: Weekly supply increased, with different trends in production from various sources. December production is expected to increase. Weekly demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased, and December production is expected to decline. Weekly inventory decreased overall, with different changes in downstream, other环节, and upstream inventories [3]. - Market outlook: The cancellation of mining licenses is related to compliance, not supply contraction. Recent inventory decline and resource disturbances affected the market. Future price trends depend on project resumption, seasonal factors, and demand verification [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures and lithium ore prices: The prices of futures contracts, lithium ore (such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone) increased on December 17, 2025, compared with December 16 [5]. - Lithium salt and other product prices: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and some other products increased, while the price of hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. The prices of some ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also had different changes [5]. - Battery prices: The prices of some battery cells and batteries, such as 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate cells, increased slightly [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][16]. - Spreads: Charts display the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][20]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other环节 from April to December 2025 [37][39]. - Production costs: Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿) from 2024 to 2025 [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend last week, with a weekly production of 21,998 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 98,210 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November was 25,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88% [8][9]. - The demand - side is expected to strengthen next month, and inventories may decline. Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 103,658 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,524 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68% [8]. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 97,832 yuan/ton, with a daily month - on - month increase of 0.52%, resulting in a loss of 4,649 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 94,715 yuan/ton, with a daily month - on - month increase of 0.37%, resulting in a loss of 3,869 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Overall, under the tight balance of supply and demand, the lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 94,040 - 97,800 yuan/ton. The influencing factors include positive factors such as the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and negative factors such as the continuous high supply of ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate last week was 21,998 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 98,210 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November was 25,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88% [8][9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 103,658 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,524 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month and inventories will decline [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 97,832 yuan/ton, with a daily month - on - month increase of 0.52%, resulting in a loss of 4,649 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 94,715 yuan/ton, with a daily month - on - month increase of 0.37%, resulting in a loss of 3,869 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are neutral; on December 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the smelter inventory was 19,161 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.73%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 42,738 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19%, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,570 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.88%, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 111,469 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%, higher than the historical average, which is neutral; the MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish; the net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 94,040 - 97,800 yuan/ton [9]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply of ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: Under the tight balance of supply and demand, the market sentiment fluctuates due to news [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - **Price of Upstream Products**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene is 1,220 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.83%; the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) is 2,605 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% [14]. - **Futures Closing Price**: The futures closing prices of various contracts have declined to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract decreased from 96,980 yuan/ton to 95,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% [14]. - **Basis**: The basis of various contracts has increased, indicating a decrease in the discount of the spot to the futures. For example, the basis of the 01 contract increased from - 3,480 yuan/ton to - 1,420 yuan/ton [14]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is 15,050 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2.03% [14]. 3.2.2 Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore**: The weekly operating rate is 83.52%, a month - on - month increase of 10.86%. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene is 97,832 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.52%; the monthly processing cost is 20,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. The daily production cost of lithium mica is 94,715 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%; the monthly processing cost is 34,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%. The total monthly production is 95,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35%, including 57,750 tons of lithium concentrate, 13,430 tons of lithium mica, 14,540 tons of salt lake, and 9,630 tons of recycling [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The monthly total production is 95,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. The monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.86%, including 14,795.57 tons from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 37.04%. The monthly net import volume is 23,634.78 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.54% [19]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The production at the smelting end is 25,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.40%; the production at the causticizing end is 4,220 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. The monthly net export volume is 1,596.96 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.40% [19]. 3.2.3 Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Battery**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate is 348,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.14%; the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate is 412,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.69%. The monthly export volume of lithium iron phosphate is 5,476,869 kg, a month - on - month increase of 77.13%. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate is 103,658 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%. The monthly production of ternary materials is 83,930 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The weekly inventory of ternary materials is 18,524 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69% [19]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production volume is 1,772,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 9.59%; the sales volume is 1.823 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.30%; the export volume is 201,400 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 9.28%. The penetration rate is 53.16%, a month - on - month increase of 2.96% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures showed an upward trend, approaching the previous high. The 2601 contract closed at 95,920 yuan/ton, up 5,160 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 97,720 yuan/ton, up 5,560 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 1,250 yuan/ton to 94,500 yuan/ton week-on-week [1]. - The supply side maintained stable growth, the demand side was basically flat compared with November, and the destocking continued but slowed down. The core factors currently driving the market trend are still the resumption progress of large factories and the demand situation in the first quarter. The game between long and short sides is fierce, and the market lacks a clear breakthrough direction in the short term [3]. - For the future market, the new driving force has not emerged, and the high-level shock will continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 90,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads for inter - period trading, and upstream enterprises are advised to lock in profits at high levels [3][4][6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - The report shows the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, as well as the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures through charts [8]. 2. Upstream Supply End of Lithium Salt - Lithium Ore - Overseas shipments decreased week - on - week. This week, the shipment volume of Australian ore decreased by 33,000 tons to 75,000 tons, and the circulating inventory of lithium ore in the market was still low. The shipment volume from Chile was 3,586 tons, lower than the annual average shipment level. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with the main increase concentrated on the spodumene side [2]. 3. Mid - stream Consumption End of Lithium Salt - Lithium Salt Products - In terms of price, the report presents the price trends of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the East China region, domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, etc. through multiple charts. In terms of production, it shows the monthly and weekly production, production by raw material, production by region, and production of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate. In terms of inventory, it shows the monthly inventory, inventory of downstream and smelting plants, and in terms of trade, it shows the monthly import and export volume and import volume by country [16][24][26]. 4. Downstream Consumption End of Lithium Salt - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The report shows the monthly production and monthly start - up rate of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of ternary materials through charts. It also shows the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production of various types of domestic power lithium batteries [33][35].

11月以来，碳酸锂期货价格经历了加速向上后宽幅震荡调整的过程，主力合约在突破100000元／吨后， 出现回落调整。目前，盘面宽幅震荡，市场分歧加剧，日内波动较大。碳酸锂期货主力合约11月涨幅接 近20%，12月9日收盘价为92800元／吨。 短期基本面"强现实"给碳酸锂价格提供支撑，供需大幅超预期的情况在年内比较难出现。在供需紧平衡 逻辑下，碳酸锂价格易涨难跌。但逐步进入淡季后，基本面的新增驱动可能减弱。中期来看，在经历了 几年的价格下行周期后，碳酸锂价格在估值和情绪层面都已经具备上涨基础，而本轮储能需求的爆发提 供新的驱动，明年价格中枢有望上移。 短期基本面有支撑 供应方面，11月我国碳酸锂产量为95350吨，环比增加3090吨，同比增长49%。12月碳酸锂排产量预计 继续增加，或升至98210吨的高位。前期检修的锂辉石和云母提锂生产线部分恢复，部分小型代工厂提 供主要增量。受天气影响，盐湖端仍有小幅减量预期。另外，回收端小幅下降。 宁德时代枧下窝锂矿复产预期已经部分兑现，虽然目前市场对实际复产节点仍有分歧，但是近期复产流 程已有所推进，复产实际落地后，短期碳酸锂供应或得到一定补充。 近期锂矿价格与锂盐价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 8, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 1.76% to 94,840 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 90,350 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 81,930 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,198 tons to 13,120 tons [2]. - Nigerian media reported that on December 1, the governors of northern Nigerian states and traditional leaders held a joint meeting and decided to promote a six - month suspension of mining activities in the region [2]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons. In December, the lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% month - on - month to 98,210 tons. In terms of demand, the weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 564 tons to 18,697 tons, and the inventory decreased by 519 tons to 18,842 tons; the weekly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 233 tons to 95,480 tons, and the inventory decreased by 660 tons to 22.35 GWh. In December, the ternary material production is expected to decrease by 7% month - on - month to 78,280 tons, and the lithium iron phosphate production is expected to decline by 1% month - on - month to 410,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,336 tons to 113,602 tons [2]. - Last week, the social inventory continued to decline. However, due to the marginal weakening of demand, the total inventory days slightly increased to 27 days. Short - term news - related disturbances have led to stronger prices, but the potential supply increment has not been released, the inventory - reduction rhythm may face pressure to slow down, and the bullish factors may be marginally weakening. There is still a certain probability of a price correction [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 92,800 yuan/ton, up 2,120 yuan. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,165 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the prices of different grades of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also increased. - Lithium carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 90,350 yuan/ton. - Lithium hydroxide: The prices of various types of lithium hydroxide mostly decreased. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 173,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate products decreased slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), different grades of lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [8][9]. - **Lithium and lithium salt prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12]. - **Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17]. - **Precursors & cathode materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][29]. - **Lithium battery prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][33][34]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 17, 2025, to December 4, 2025 [36][37][38]. - **Production cost**: A chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [40][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decline in the lithium carbonate futures market on the day was mainly affected by the expected weakening of consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end. Short - term inventory continued to be depleted, but the depletion rate slowed down significantly. The resumption of production at the mine end is advancing, and lithium salt supply has increased significantly. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter, with a predicted decrease in the power battery segment and high - level maintenance in the energy storage segment. Short - term interval operation is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,560 yuan/ton and closed at 93,660 yuan/ton, with a - 2.82% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 643,323 lots, and the open interest was 562,836 lots (the previous day's open interest was 552,239 lots). The current basis was - 1,970 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 9,652 lots, a change of 660 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, also a - 50 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,205 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. The actual transaction prices in the market were mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are ongoing, with the focus on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2]. - It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to be strong, the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand, and the supply shortage pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, lithium carbonate inventory is expected to continue to be depleted in December, but the depletion rate will slow down compared to November [2]. - In November 2025, Chile exported 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 28% month - on - month decrease; the volume exported to China was 14,700 tons, a 9% month - on - month decrease. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and the volume exported to China was 151,800 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, a 493% month - on - month increase. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 82,000 tons of lithium sulfate, a 33% year - on - year increase [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Short - term interval operation [4] - Cross - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]

1. Research Views - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures, the 2605 contract, dropped 0.72% to 96,560 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 94,400 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 91,950 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 100 yuan/ton to 82,580 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 770 tons to 8,992 tons [3]. - In terms of news, the change registration (including renewal) of the non - oil and gas mining right for the lithium ore in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province - Jianxiawo, Fengxin County has entered the acceptance stage [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, the output of lithium extracted from spodumene increased by 20 tons to 13,364 tons, the output of lithium from lepidolite increased by 50 tons to 3,021 tons, the output of lithium from salt lakes decreased by 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and the output of lithium from recycled materials increased by 65 tons to 2,245 tons. According to SMM data, the supply in December is expected to increase by 3% to 98,000 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and the inventory increased by 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons. According to SMM data, the output of ternary materials in December is expected to decline by 7% to 78,280 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% to 409,550 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 2,452 tons to 115,968 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, inventory in other links increasing by 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [3]. - From the perspective of weekly data, the decrease in supply and increase in demand led to the decline of the total inventory turnover days to 26.3 days. However, from the perspective of future market trends, considering the resumption of production expectations and the preliminary downstream production scheduling data, the fundamental situation may show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, leading to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed or inventory accumulation, and the marginal weakening of positive factors. Therefore, there is a relatively large risk in chasing up the current price. Affected by centralized cancellations, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased significantly on November 28, and attention should be paid to the return situation [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides price data of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on December 2, 2025, and December 1, 2025, including futures prices, lithium ore prices, lithium and lithium salt prices, price spreads, precursor and cathode material prices, and battery prices [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - The report shows the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 are presented [10][13]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The report shows the price spreads such as the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - The price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 are presented [23][26]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - The price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 are shown [30][32]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 10, 2025, to November 27, 2025, are presented [36][38]. 3.7 Production Costs - The production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and purchased spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 are shown [40][41]. 4. Research Team Members - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He has long been interviewed by multiple media such as Futures Daily, China Securities Journal, Shanghai Securities News, Securities Times, First Financial, and China Times. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of the Outstanding Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [44]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He is rooted in the domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by customers. He has also conducted in - depth research on hedging accounting and hedging information disclosure to better serve the risk management of listed companies [45]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by customers [45].