Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: As of July 14, according to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 6.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 59.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 36.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.1% [5]. - Fundamentals: Driven by anti - involution and meeting expectations, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, and zinc prices have rebounded and then fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous strengthening of the marginal spot TC of zinc ore. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the increasing production situation at the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there are concerns about a contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is little expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, which will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [5]. - Strategy: In the short and medium term, the short - term sentiment in the domestic commodity market is hot, but there seems to be no clear expectation that can reverse the supply - demand situation, and it has little to do with the fundamentals of zinc. Consider laying out short positions in SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - The macro situation shows different probabilities of the Fed's interest rate decisions in July and September. The fundamentals indicate a shift in the zinc supply - demand balance towards surplus, and the strategy suggests shorting SHFE zinc on rallies [5]. Part 2: Industrial Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term contract TC price for zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and it was halved compared to the previous year. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was overestimated, and the trend of a marginally looser zinc ore supply remains unchanged [7]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. The increase in imports has boosted processing fees. As of July 11, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $66.48/ton, and that for domestic ore was reported at 3,800 yuan/ton, with both having been raised several times recently [9]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelter profits have been continuously improved [12]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In June 2025, China's refined zinc production was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [16]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [19]. Part 3: Industrial Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.63%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [24]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [26]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be noted [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: As the off - season approaches, social inventories of zinc have slightly increased [31]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of July 11, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $0.36/ton. As the off - season approaches, the domestic spot premium has declined [34]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of July 4, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 20,595 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently declined [37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment, zinc prices may fluctuate. With continuous supply expansion and the downstream entering the off - season, domestic social inventories are expected to gradually accumulate, and zinc prices may face downward pressure [4]. - For trading strategies, one can consider short - selling zinc at high prices while being vigilant about macro risks, and temporarily hold off on arbitrage operations [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Mine End**: This week, the domestic zinc concentrate market remained stable. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price was flat at 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 1 US dollar/dry ton to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. In July, although some domestic mines were under maintenance, the impact on production was small. Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to increase, and zinc concentrate processing fees still have room for an upward adjustment [4]. - **Smelting End**: In July, domestic smelters had both maintenance and restart operations. Overall, domestic refined zinc production may increase by about 12,000 tons month - on - month. Recently, the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates have increased significantly, the profit margins of smelters have expanded, and with sufficient domestic zinc concentrate supply, the enthusiasm of smelters to start production has increased significantly. Refined zinc supply is expected to increase [4]. - **Consumption**: Against the backdrop of the traditional off - season for zinc consumption from July to August, terminal orders have decreased significantly, and the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to start production has declined. Coupled with the relatively high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is expected that the downstream procurement sentiment will be poor in the near future. However, the continuation of the domestic "trade - in" policy may still boost consumption to some extent. Attention should be paid to the consumption situations in infrastructure, automotive, and home appliance sectors [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 3, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 82,400 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from June 26 and an increase of 1,800 tons from June 30. The LME zinc inventory (on July 4) was 112,300 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from June 27 [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral Trading**: One can consider short - selling zinc in small quantities at high prices and be vigilant about macro risks. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily hold off on operations [4]. Chapter 2: Market Data - **Spot Premium**: Information on the basis situation in major consumption regions and LME cash - 3M is provided [6]. - **Absolute Price and Monthly Spread, and Trading Volume and Open Interest of Shanghai Zinc**: Related data on these aspects are presented [12]. - **Social Inventory**: Information on social inventory, bonded area inventory, LME inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, warrants, and LME inventory by region is included [14][15]. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data - **Zinc Ore Supply** - **Production**: From January to April, global zinc concentrate production was 393,680 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.07%. Among them, overseas zinc concentrate production was 274,180 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.23%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 119,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. In May 2025, SMM zinc concentrate production was 325,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.17% and a year - on - year increase of 3.17%. In June 2025, the expected zinc concentrate production was 342,600 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.42%. In June, the monthly raw material inventory of smelters was 448,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.41% and a year - on - year increase of 99.11%. This week, the zinc concentrate inventory at Lianyungang increased by 10,000 tons to 90,000 physical tons [25]. - **Import**: In May 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative imported zinc concentrate was 2,204,000 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46%. The top three import source countries were Australia (22.10%), Peru (16.13%), and South Africa (10.49%). From June to July, the import window for zinc concentrates was basically closed, and although some previously locked - price imported ores flowed in, the volume of imported zinc concentrates was expected to decrease compared with the previous period [33]. - **Total Domestic Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc concentrates was about 546,200 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.74%. From January to May, the cumulative total supply was 2,390,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.99%. According to SMM data, in June 2025, the available days of inventory for refined zinc production enterprises were 29.7 days, an increase of 2 days month - on - month and 12.83 days more than the same period last year [36]. - **Zinc Ore Processing Fees**: In July, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates rose to 3,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,250 yuan/ton compared with December 2024. On July 4, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 1 US dollar/dry ton to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,088 yuan/ton, domestic smelters have a production loss of about 228 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue), and with by - product revenue, smelters have a profit of about 1,477 yuan/ton [39][40]. - **Global Refined Zinc Production** - In the first half of last year, the global zinc market was in surplus, but since July, it has turned into a shortage. In 2024, the annual refined zinc production was 1,362.02 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.01%. The annual demand was 1,364.78 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.32%. The annual refined zinc shortage was 27,600 tons. - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production was 442,580 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10,550 tons or 2.33%. The main production cuts were concentrated in South Korea and Japan, mainly due to the reduction and suspension of production at South Korea's Seakpho smelter and Japan's Annaka smelter. - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc consumption was 427,470 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6,390 tons or 1.47%. The decrease in consumption was concentrated in the United States and Mexico, mainly due to geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties. - From January to April 2025, the global refined zinc cumulative surplus was 151,100 tons, and the surplus was gradually expanding [43]. - **Domestic Refined Zinc Supply** - **Smelter Operation**: From January to June, the average operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was about 88.4%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 89.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; that of medium - scale enterprises was 93.8%, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; and that of small - scale enterprises was 71.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.54%. In January and February this year, the operating rate of domestic smelters was lower than the same period last year, mainly due to smelter losses and the Spring Festival holiday. Since March, after smelters turned profitable, the operating rate has increased significantly year - on - year. - **Production**: From January to June, domestic refined zinc production was 3.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.84%. In the first half of 2024, domestic smelters were profitable, and with relatively sufficient raw material inventory, domestic production was relatively stable. In the second half of 2024, due to ore shortages and reduced processing fees, smelters turned to losses, and the scale of production cuts continued to expand. This year, domestic smelters' production gradually increased after turning profitable in March, so the year - on - year increase in production in the first half of the year was not significant [46]. - **Zinc Ingot Import**: In May 2025, the imported refined zinc was 26,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons or 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. From January to May, the cumulative imported refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.66%. In May, the exported refined zinc was 1,400 tons, and the net imported refined zinc was 25,300 tons. The top three import countries in May were Kazakhstan (15,600 tons, 58.7%), Australia (3,600 tons, 13.56%), and Spain (2,800 tons, 10.57%). From June to July, the domestic refined zinc import window was basically closed. Although some previously locked - price imported zinc and duty - free imported zinc flowed in, the volume was expected to be significantly reduced compared with the previous period [48]. - **Downstream Consumption - Related Data** - **Primary Processing**: Information on the start - up situation and inventory of primary processing enterprises, including galvanizing, zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises, is provided [57][59]. - **Real Estate Construction**: Data on real estate development investment, sales area, new construction area, construction area, completion area, and unsold area are presented, along with the seasonal data of the 100 - city land transaction premium rate and the daily transaction data of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities [62][64]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Trends in major infrastructure investment sectors, including power, transportation, and water conservancy, are provided [71]. - **Domestic Automobile**: Data on automobile production, including traditional fuel vehicles and new - energy vehicles, and export seasonality are presented [75][76]. - **Domestic White Goods**: Data on the monthly production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines are provided [78]. - **Raw Material Supply and Demand Summary Table**: The table shows the production, net import volume, and total supply of zinc concentrates and refined zinc from January 2024 to May 2025, including year - on - year changes [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade protection, the global economic downward pressure persists. The supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots tends to be loose, while the demand faces insufficient momentum in traditional consumption sectors and a slowdown in the growth rate of emerging consumption sectors. The degree of supply - demand surplus expands. It is expected that the zinc price center will gradually decline under pressure in the second half of the year, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher. If the macro - economy deteriorates significantly, the zinc price may seek support from the mine cost [4][94][96]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Review - In the first half of the year, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc showed a downward trend in the oscillation center. In the first quarter, due to concerns about tariff increases and the strong US dollar, combined with the Spring Festival holiday in China, the zinc price was weak. In March, the price stabilized and rebounded and oscillated around 24,000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, due to unexpected US tariffs, the zinc price hit a new low in the first half of the year, then stabilized and rebounded. By June 30, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.96% from the beginning of the year. The London zinc price also showed a downward trend in the oscillation range, closing at 2,741 US dollars/ton on June 30, a decrease of 6.26% from the beginning of the year [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Situation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed signs of a slowdown, with inflation potentially rising in the future. The Fed was cautious about interest rate cuts. In the second half of the year, the continuous impact of Trump's tariff policy will further suppress economic growth. The "Big Beautiful Act" may ease the economic decline to some extent but may also lead to secondary inflation. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times to relieve the economic slowdown pressure, and the US dollar index is in a downward channel in the medium - to - long term [11][12]. 2.2 Eurozone Situation - In the first half of 2025, the Eurozone economy showed a mild recovery. The European Central Bank's continuous interest rate cuts stimulated investment and real - estate demand, and net exports increased. Inflation continued to decline. In the second half of the year, the Eurozone economy faces both opportunities and challenges. Although there is still room for interest rate cuts, the threat of tariffs may limit economic growth, and inflation may rebound [13][14]. 2.3 China's Situation - In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed resilience, with stable GDP growth. Policies focused on implementing existing measures. In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate may slow down, with exports, consumption, and manufacturing investment facing challenges. However, infrastructure investment will remain stable, and the annual GDP growth target is still expected to be achieved [16][17]. 3. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Turns from Tight to Loose**: In 2025, the global zinc concentrate supply increased. Overseas, new projects climbed production smoothly, and some mines resumed production and increased production. In China, although the cumulative output from January to May decreased year - on - year, it is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The annual global increment is expected to be 55 - 600,000 tons [30]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees Rise Significantly, and Zinc Ore Imports Remain High**: Since the fourth quarter of 2024, processing fees have rebounded. By June 2025, the average monthly domestic and foreign processing fees increased significantly. In the second half of the year, there is still room for growth, but the growth rate may slow down. From January to May 2025, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports increased by 52.5% year - on - year, and it is expected to maintain a high level in the second half of the year [35][36]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - **Overseas Smelters Have a Mixture of Production Cuts and Expansions, and Supply Disruption Risks Remain**: From January to April 2025, the global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Overseas smelters had a mixture of production cuts and restarts. Due to high costs, there is a risk of production cuts in overseas smelters [41]. - **Refined Zinc Supply Recovers Strongly from January to June, and the Zinc Ingot Import Window Closes Again**: From January to June 2025, China's refined zinc production increased year - on - year. It is expected to maintain a high level of 550,000 - 600,000 tons per month in the second half of the year. The annual output is expected to reach 6.6 million tons, an increase of 6.84% year - on - year. The import of zinc ingots decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [47][48]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - **Overseas Terminal Consumption Shows a Mixed Picture, and the Medium - to - Long - Term Outlook Is Uncertain**: In the first half of 2025, the global refined zinc demand decreased slightly year - on - year. In the US, the real - estate market was weak, and the auto market may slow down in the second half of the year. In the Eurozone, the real - estate market showed signs of improvement, and the auto market had a mixed performance [57][58][59]. - **Initial - Stage Enterprises' Operating Rates Are Expected to Decline, and Galvanized Steel Exports Remain Strong**: The operating rates of initial - stage enterprises followed the seasonal pattern. In the second half of the year, the operating rates are expected to decline in the third quarter and rebound in the fourth quarter. Galvanized steel exports were strong in the first half of the year but are expected to decline in the third quarter and stabilize in the fourth quarter [72][73]. - **Policy Support Increases, and Terminal Consumption Is Differentiated**: In the traditional consumption sector, infrastructure investment is expected to recover in the second half of the year, the real - estate market will continue to bottom out, the auto market will maintain good momentum, and the home - appliance market will face internal sales slowdown pressure. In the emerging consumption sector, the photovoltaic market may slow down, while the wind - power market is expected to maintain high growth [74][77][83]. 3.4 Inventory - **Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline from a High Level, and Domestic Inventory First Increases and Then Decreases**: In the first half of the year, the LME inventory continued to decline from a high level. In the second half of the year, it is expected to remain at a high level with a narrowing decline. The domestic inventory was at a relatively low level. In the second half of the year, there is still pressure to increase inventory in the third quarter, and it is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [92]. 4. Summary and Outlook - In the second half of the year, the global zinc concentrate supply may accelerate, and the annual increment will exceed 500,000 tons. The supply of refined zinc is expected to remain high, while the demand faces downward risks. Overall, the supply - demand surplus will expand, and the zinc price is expected to decline gradually, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher [94][96].

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices experienced fluctuations in June, initially declining due to weak demand and increased supply, but rebounded later in the month driven by improved macro sentiment and disruptions in overseas smelters [2] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The US dollar index has seen a significant decline since the beginning of the year, dropping to around 97, which has positively impacted dollar-denominated commodities [3] - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with potential cuts anticipated within the year [3] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, particularly in the Israel-Palestine conflict, leading to stabilization in oil prices [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global zinc mine production in April was 1.0192 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.6% month-on-month but an increase of 9.7% year-on-year [4] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in May rose by 9.2% month-on-month to 325,000 tons, while cumulative production from January to May saw a year-on-year decline of 3.4% [4] - Zinc processing fees have been rising, with July's average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate increasing by 200 RMB per ton to 3,850 RMB per ton [4] Group 3: Domestic Production Expectations - China's refined zinc production in May was 583,000 tons, a slight increase from April but a year-on-year decline of 2.3% [5] - The expectation for increased domestic refined zinc production is strong due to improved smelter profits and reduced maintenance schedules [5] - The import of refined zinc has decreased slightly to 26,700 tons in May, with a cumulative decline of 16.65% year-on-year for the first five months [5] Group 4: Inventory and Pricing Trends - LME zinc inventory has decreased from 195,000 tons in mid-April to 119,000 tons, indicating a tightening supply [6] - Domestic refined zinc inventory initially increased but has since decreased, remaining at lower levels compared to previous years [6] - The current market shows a narrowing of the LME 0-3 zinc spot premium, which has implications for potential warehouse risks similar to those seen in copper [6] Group 5: Demand Conditions - The demand for zinc remains weak due to seasonal factors, with processing enterprises experiencing declining operating rates [7] - The operating rate for galvanizing enterprises dropped to 56.21%, indicating reduced orders and production [7] - Overall, construction and manufacturing sectors are showing signs of weakness, with real estate and infrastructure investment growth slowing [7] Group 6: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of a weak dollar, easing geopolitical risks, and expectations of Fed rate cuts has led to a recovery in the non-ferrous metals market [8] - The supply side remains relatively loose due to steady production from both domestic and international mines, while smelter profits are recovering [8] - Despite the positive macro factors, the seasonal demand weakness and inventory dynamics suggest a cautious outlook for zinc prices [8]

Group 1 - Zinc main contract has shifted to a weak oscillation after testing the 23,000 yuan/ton resistance three times, with a recent drop to 21,660 yuan/ton, marking a year-low [1] - Global zinc concentrate production in April increased by 9.7% year-on-year to 1.0192 million tons, while domestic production in Q1 rose by 6.42% [1] - Domestic zinc concentrate production profits have rebounded to 3,900-4,600 yuan/ton, leading to an expected increase in operating rates by 5.5 percentage points in June [1] Group 2 - In April, global refined zinc production grew by 1% month-on-month, remaining stable year-on-year, while domestic production faced a decline due to losses [2] - The downstream consumption index for zinc fell by 1.7 percentage points in May, with significant increases in inventories for galvanized products [2] - The automotive sector saw a slight increase in production, but overall demand remains constrained by external tariff policies [3] Group 3 - LME zinc inventory decreased by 48% year-on-year to 126,000 tons, continuing a trend of inventory reduction [3] - The short-term outlook for zinc prices is pressured by increased supply and seasonal demand weakness, but high smelting costs and ongoing inventory depletion may limit price declines [3] - Positive signals from US-China tariff negotiations and a potential recovery from the consumption off-season could improve the supply-demand balance and support a price rebound [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: The Fed's new economic forecast predicts slower economic growth and rising inflation, but policymakers still expect rate cuts later this year. There are significant differences in opinions among officials, with 7 believing no rate cuts are needed, 8 expecting two cuts, 2 predicting one cut, and 2 forecasting three cuts. Fed officials Waller and Barkin have different views on the timing of rate cuts [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Overseas geopolitical situations had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, with dull spot transactions and stable social inventories. On the supply side, the periodic supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc mine projects at home and abroad plan to increase production, driving up the global zinc ore output and strengthening the marginal TC of zinc ore spot. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased, and refined zinc production has recovered marginally. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down global economic growth, and there are concerns about a contraction in zinc demand. Whether the demand outlook is optimistic or pessimistic, there is a tendency of oversupply in the zinc market, putting downward pressure on long - term zinc prices [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to low social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. It is advisable to consider shorting far - month contracts on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In April 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0192 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. The international long - term TC price for zinc ore in 2025 is set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 2.2055 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.83%. As of June 20, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $55.27/ton, and that for domestic ore was 3,600 yuan/ton, both having been raised recently [10]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, smelters' profits have been continuously improved [13]. - **Refined Zinc Production**: In April 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc production was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, production is gradually increasing [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 145,400 tons. The import window for refined zinc is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April 2025, China's galvanized sheet production was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. The production and sales of household appliances have cooled down due to the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in some regions, and the impact of subsequent tariffs should be monitored [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Downstream buyers over - purchased and replenished stocks at low prices, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: As of June 20, the LME 0 - 3 premium/discount for zinc was reported at a discount of $24.65/ton. Due to low social inventories, the spot premium is relatively high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 13, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 4,817 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].

报告导读： 货 研 究 我们的观点：基于锌元素过剩格局，2025 年下半年锌价或前高后低。预估沪锌主要运行区间为 20000-23000 元/吨，伦锌主 要运行区间为 2400-2700 美元/吨。 所 我们的逻辑：供应侧矛盾将继续主导价格。随着利润修复驱动高成本矿山重启、新扩建矿山兑现增量，锌矿的宽松将持续传 导至冶炼放量，锌锭供应压力逐步体现，价格高位回落。锌合金一体化、冶炼厂直发增加以及下游经历补库使得显性库存水 位较低，或限制价格回落的流畅度，亦可关注传统消费旺季期间的跨期正套以及内外反套。 2025 年 6 月 19 日 过剩渐显下价格承压，低库存提供结构策略 ---2025 年锌期货半年度行情展望 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 投资展望：单边以逢高空思路为主，或买入看跌期权；跨期正套；内外层面，就目前预估国内供应压力于淡季体现，从而带 来内外正套机会，比值的波动上，可以打开国内锌矿进口窗口的思路为主进行旺季阶段的内外反套。 风险点：矿端增量不及预期，低显性库存存在流动性风险，关注海内外宏观政策等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务 ...

有色金属周报(锌) 弱势格局依旧，沪锌维持空配 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：中东紧张局势升级，地缘风险加剧，且美国关税风 | | | | | 波再起，需求不确定性增强。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。由于内外比值不佳，进口窗口持 | | | | | 续关闭，进口锌矿及港口转口贸易锌矿报价有限，炼厂以 | | | | | 采购国产矿为主。近期国内冶炼厂和贸易商成交了三季度 | 上周随着锌价跌破22,000元/吨关 | | | | 装期的Bisha锌矿，货量为1万吨，成交TC为50美元/干吨 | 口，下游逢低补库情绪有所显现， | | | | 左右。南美锌矿三季度集装箱报盘在70美元/干吨左右。 | 锌价后半周出现一定反弹，但终 | | |  | 成本利润：西南产区逐步进入平水期，电价下移，冶炼成 | 端订单并无明显好转，淡季影响 | | | | 本减少，加之TC稳中向好，硫酸和小金属利润亦处于相 | 下企业看跌心态较重，加之供给 | 偏弱整理。 | | | | 端增量趋势明显，库存累库预期 | | | ...

目 录 第一部分：核心观点 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 核心观点 宏观：6月7日讯，美联储哈克表示，在美国金融体系面临日益增长的挑战之际，赤字必须受到控制，对当前政府财政状况"非常担忧"。哈 克还表示："在关键数据方面，我们正变得越来越盲目。我们担忧经济数据的质量正在下降。不确定性使得预测货币政策前景变得非常困难 。但在不确定性之中，今年晚些时候美联储仍有可能降息。 基本面：上周锌价延续震荡整理走势，宏观方面相对平淡，进入6月份，传统淡季趋近，关注社库拐点。从大的基本面格局看，供给端锌矿 周期性供给转宽正在落地，2025年内外几个大的锌矿项目均有增产安排，全球锌矿产量回升带动锌矿现货TC边际持续走强。矿端增产传导至 冶炼端，在冶炼利润回暖之下，国内炼厂开工率提升，延期检修，精炼锌产量边际恢复，且预计矿端和冶炼端的增产形势会延续下去。需求 一侧，贸易争端可能拖累全球经济增速，锌需求总量存收缩隐忧，即使各国快速达成新的贸易协议，全球经济增速维持韧性，锌的总需求也 难有增量预期 ...

有色金属周报(锌) 多空僵持，沪锌区间整理 2025年5月26日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：中美贸易关系缓解，关税影响暂告一段落。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期，目前国内炼厂原料库存27天左右， | | | | | 海外矿山虽有扰动，但影响较小。4月进口锌精矿大量到 | | | | | 港，进口矿达49万吨，部分OZ矿已运至国内，Kipushi矿 | | | | | 试单销售，Gamsberg、Antamina矿亦有招标，紫金矿业在 | | | | | 俄控股的Kyzyl-Tashtyg铅锌矿将取消原定于6月暂停运营 | 随着关税风波暂告一段落，锌价 | | | | 的计划，公司将维持矿山正常运转，矿端持续宽松。 | 走势回归基本面逻辑，当前锌市 | | |  | 成本利润：近期随着锌价重心下移，矿端对TC继续上调 | 供强需弱，库存处于相对低位， | | | | 意愿不高，预计6月TC调涨空间相对有 ...