Core Points - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833.HK) reported a consolidated revenue of RMB 1.1179 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 50.2% to RMB 71.6 million compared to the same period last year [1] - The significant decline in net profit is primarily attributed to a decrease in the average selling price of electrolytic nickel, which was approximately RMB 110,688 per ton, down 10.9% from RMB 124,230 per ton in the previous year [1] - Increased production costs were also a factor, mainly due to the use of externally sourced nickel concentrate during the production process [1] - Basic earnings per share attributable to shareholders were RMB 0.032, down from RMB 0.065 in the same period last year, a decrease of RMB 0.033 per share [1] - The board of directors does not recommend the distribution of an interim dividend for 2025 [1] Related Events - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833.HK) will hold a board meeting on August 29 to approve the interim results [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) experienced a pre-earnings surge of over 8%, attributed to the upcoming board meeting to approve mid-term results, despite a significant decline in net profit due to falling nickel prices and rising production costs [1]. Company Summary - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining's expected consolidated revenue for the first half of the year is approximately 1.118 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be around 71.8 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decrease of approximately 50.8% [1]. Industry Summary - According to Galaxy Futures, the nickel market is currently experiencing an oversupply, which is being absorbed by hidden inventories [1]. - In July, significant imports did not disrupt domestic supply, and refined nickel spot prices remained stable [1]. - In August, there is an increase in stainless steel and ternary production, providing support for primary nickel demand, while refined nickel may see improved transactions due to seasonal stocking [1]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts in September could strengthen commodity indices, potentially allowing nickel prices to rebound due to inflation expectations, although the upward potential remains limited, maintaining a wide fluctuation pattern [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for nickel is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel industry has experienced different development stages driven by demand and supply. In the past, stainless - steel demand and later new - energy vehicle demand have respectively boosted nickel prices, while subsequent technological breakthroughs and capacity expansions have led to an oversupply situation. The industry cycle that started in 2017 may turn around in 2028, and new demand from solid - state batteries is expected to reverse the current oversupply pattern [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Nickel Iron & Stainless Steel: A Close - knit Relationship 3.1.1 Before 2007: Stainless - steel demand drives nickel price up - From 1997 - 2007, global stainless - steel nickel consumption grew at a CAGR of about 3.3%, accounting for over 60% of nickel end - consumption. After China joined the WTO in 2001, its stainless - steel production increased rapidly, with a CAGR of 44.9% from 2000 - 2005 and 30% from 2005 - 2010. The shortage of supply led to a significant increase in nickel price and a pressing need for stainless - steel cost reduction. During this period, there were changes in the ore end and raw materials, with laterite nickel ore replacing sulfide nickel ore, and the smelting process evolving from one - step to two - step and three - step methods. Chinese enterprises also started using laterite nickel ore to smelt NPI, which became the main raw material for stainless - steel production, reducing costs [18][19][24] 3.1.2 2007 - 2015: Nickel capacity expands rapidly, and weakening stainless - steel demand causes nickel price to decline - High nickel prices attracted many domestic enterprises to produce NPI using laterite nickel ore. Since 2010, domestic nickel ore imports have increased significantly. By 2011, NPI accounted for over 50% of the primary nickel raw materials for stainless - steel production in China. However, stainless - steel demand weakened due to the global economic downturn, leading to a large accumulation of LME nickel inventory and a decline in nickel price [34][35] 3.1.3 RKEF and Oxygen - Enriched Side - Blowing Process Discussion and Cost Calculation - RKEF is the mainstream process for nickel - iron preparation, with advantages such as a short process flow, high production efficiency, and high nickel recovery rate, but it has limitations in terms of cobalt recovery and energy consumption. The oxygen - enriched side - blowing process (OESBF) is more advanced, with better raw - material applicability and lower energy consumption, and it can also recover cobalt. Cost calculations show that the cost of RKEF - produced nickel - iron is about 1333 dollars per physical ton, and the cost of OESBF - produced high - grade nickel matte is about 11,800 dollars per metal ton [38][40][50] 3.2 Intermediate Products: Technological Breakthroughs, Raw - Material Structure Shuffle 3.2.1 2018 - 2022: New - energy demand opens a second growth curve, and the smelting end breaks the binary supply - demand imbalance - With the rapid development of new - energy vehicles, the demand for ternary batteries increased, driving up the demand for nickel. The production of ternary precursors in China increased nearly four - fold from 2020 to 2022. However, the traditional "laterite nickel ore - stainless steel" and "sulfide nickel ore - nickel salt/pure nickel" binary supply - demand pattern could not meet the demand for nickel sulfate, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. Nickel beans/nickel powder were initially popular for producing nickel sulfate due to their short extraction cycle [56][57][62] 3.2.2 2023 - present: Supply - side expansion leads to an industry - wide oversupply - As the profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel decreased, the HPAL process for laterite nickel ore and the production of nickel sulfate from high - grade nickel matte became mainstream. Currently, there is over 400,000 metal tons of MHP wet - process production capacity in Indonesia. The electric - deposition process has matured, leading to a rapid increase in pure - nickel production. The large - scale production of deliverable products has made it difficult to repeat the "short - squeeze" market, but the oversupply situation will continue until demand improves [70][80][84] 3.2.3 HPAL Process Discussion and Cost Calculation - HPAL has a high cobalt - recovery rate, which can significantly offset costs. The cost of HPAL - produced MHP is relatively low. After deducting the cobalt cost, the full cost of MHP is about 7732 dollars per metal ton. The investment cost of wet - process projects is expected to decrease with technological maturity, and the reduction of production cost depends on the increase in cobalt price [88][92][95] 3.3 Current Situation and Outlook of Smelting - End Capacity 3.3.1 Nickel Iron: FENI supply stabilizes after clearance, and NPI capacity reaches a phased peak - After the nickel - iron to high - grade nickel matte conversion process was established and the electric - deposition nickel capacity expanded, nickel iron became a raw material for electric - deposition nickel. However, the price change of nickel iron is difficult to be smoothly transmitted to the market. FENI has experienced production cuts due to high costs, and its supply is expected to remain stable [96][97]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 21, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The conflict between reality and expectations intensifies, amplifying the volatility of the futures market [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is boosted [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted [2][14]. Summary by Categories Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,930 yuan, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 63,676 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day, while the stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 149,736 lots, an increase of 15,654 lots from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff disputes. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production phase, and there are environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has adjusted the 2025 production target. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [4][5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan from the previous day, and the 2511 contract closed at 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan from the previous day [10]. - The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots from the previous day, and the 2511 contract had a trading volume of 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots from the previous day [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a 30.35% increase from the previous month [10][11]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract for polysilicon closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The trading volume of the Si2511 contract was 561,795 lots, an increase of 123,482 lots from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract had a trading volume of 704,931 lots, an increase of 124,324 lots from the previous day [14]. Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon exports totaled 74,006.174 tons to 50 countries/regions, with an average price of 9,219.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.74 yuan/ton from the previous month [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Recently, nickel supply has remained largely unchanged, but the 3.25% increase in domestic refined nickel inventory last week poses a significant negative impact on the fundamentals. Nickel prices are under pressure to decline but are also constrained by cost considerations and are unlikely to drop significantly. Attention should be paid to news disturbances from major producing countries and changes in macro - expectations, especially Indonesia's claim to crack down on illegal mining [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a situation where the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, and the market may fall into a stalemate again. Downstream enterprises are not very enthusiastic about purchasing and are mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The recent market recovery is mainly supported by strong macro news, but the spot fundamentals have recovered poorly, and demand needs further release [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Prices**: As of August 18, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged from last week at $29, $57, and $78.5 per wet ton respectively. As of August 15, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore at Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by $0.3 and $0 respectively from last week to $24.5 and $52.3 per wet ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron as of August 18 increased by $7 per nickel point from last week to $926 per nickel point, a 0.76% increase [3][25]. - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron output (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. In July 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][60]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 6 million tons to 776 million wet tons, a 0.78% increase. Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1319 tons to 4.19 million tons, a 3.25% increase [27][39]. - **Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost production profit margin of Fujian RKEF increased by 0.92 percentage points to - 9.36% [3]. Stainless - steel Market - **Output**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons, with the 300 - series output increasing by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series output increasing by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series output decreasing by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [70]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.74 million tons to 107.89 million tons, a 2.48% decrease. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 57 tons to 10.31 million tons, a 0.06% increase [74]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 18, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by $30 per ton to $12995 per ton, a 0.23% decrease. The production profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by 0.34 percentage points to - 2.16% [78]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the supply of sulfuric acid nickel in the market is generally in a stable and weak state [49]. - **Profit**: As of August 18, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased by 0.2, increased by 1.3, increased by 0.3, and increased by 0.3 percentage points respectively from last week to - 1.6%, - 3.6%, 4.4%, and - 2.5% [55][56].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views - The macro - situation shows that the US tariff policies cause disruptions in supply chains, labor data weakens, and the risk of stagflation rises. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September is increasing, but the tariff policies may drag down global consumption growth. [3] - In terms of fundamentals, overseas climate disturbances have weakened, and the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia has increased. The nickel sulfate market is still hot, but the pure nickel market is cold, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. [3] - In the later stage, due to the repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices may fluctuate. There is a game between the increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts and the weakening demand. The industry remains relatively stable, but the demand in major consumption areas lacks growth expectations, and the fundamentals are weakly improved. [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - SHFE nickel price increased from 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4, 2025, to 121,180 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, up 550 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,066 dollars/ton to 15,156 dollars/ton, up 90 dollars/ton. [5] - LME nickel inventory increased by 3,150 tons to 212,232 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 549 tons to 20,621 tons. [5] 2. Market Review - **Macro - level**: US labor market shows signs of weakness, and the risk of stagflation is discussed again. Trump's tariff policies continue, and trade disputes are hard to calm down. [6] - **Nickel ore**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is increasing, but the price of nickel ore is relatively firm. There is a strong expectation of price reduction at the ore end. [6] - **Pure nickel**: Domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly in July, but the smelter's production plan increased slightly. The export of domestic pure nickel decreased, and the inventory pressure increased. [7] - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. The production of nickel pig iron in China decreased slightly in July, and the import from Indonesia increased significantly. The inventory of nickel iron is at a high level, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. [8][9] - **Nickel sulfate**: The price of nickel sulfate increased. The production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased in July, and the inventory of nickel sulfate decreased. [9] - **New energy**: The retail sales of new - energy vehicles in July decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped significantly. The price competition among car companies has improved, but the market demand is limited. [9] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of pure nickel in six locations decreased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased. [10] 3. Industry News - Indonesia announced the benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in August (Phase I), which increased by about 0.69% compared with July (Phase II). [12] - LME cancelled the decision to suspend the delivery of AMBATOVY nickel beans. [12] - In July 2025, the monthly nickel output of GEM's Indonesian nickel project exceeded 10,000 tons. [12] - The Indonesian government is promoting new regulations to encourage the transition from lithium - ion batteries to nickel - based batteries, and has cooperated with some enterprises. [12] - Medallion Metals acquired the 100% legal and beneficial rights and interests of the Forrestania nickel project. [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel**: Expected to trade in a narrow range. Mine - end support weakens, and smelting - end logic limits price elasticity. Long - term low - cost supply may impact the cost curve, but short - term prices are difficult to fall deeply yet face an upper limit. Consider interval trading and double - sell option strategies [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Intensified multi - short battle, with prices expected to oscillate. Bulls focus on inventory decline and policy uncertainties, while bears focus on weak reality and short - term valuation [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term trend follows coking coal. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before large - scale resumption, the market may follow coking coal, but the fundamental trend is downward [28][32]. - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment cools down, and there is a callback drive. Policy factors dominate, and short - term prices may decline. The market is expected to be volatile in the third quarter [28][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of Jianxiaowo mine is expected to drive prices up. Before overseas supply fills the gap, prices will remain upward. Otherwise, pay attention to project resumption [54][56]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,180 yuan/ton. The inventory of refined nickel in China decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [6][7][13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,106,304 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.44% [5][8][13]. Supply and Demand - **Nickel**: Mine - end support weakens, and long - term low - cost supply may change the cost curve. The inventory of nickel pig iron decreased marginally, and the price was revised upwards [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply side has some structural production cuts, and the inventory pressure has slightly eased. However, the actual supply elasticity and high inventory still limit price increases [5]. Market News - Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; and Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price was 8,710 yuan/ton, and the spot price declined. Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia's 99 - grade silicon prices decreased [28]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, rising first and then falling. The spot market showed no significant improvement [28]. Supply and Demand - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply increased as factories in the southwest and northwest resumed production. The industry inventory shifted from destocking to restocking [29]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply increased as some factories resumed production, and the upstream inventory started to accumulate. The demand side saw a marginal increase in silicon wafer production [30][31]. Future Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before large - scale resumption, the price may follow coking coal, but the long - term trend is downward [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy factors dominate, and there is a short - term callback drive. Consider positive spreads for PS2511/PS2512 and recommend selling hedging for upstream factories [32][34][35]. Lithium Carbonate Market Conditions - The futures prices of 2509 and 2511 contracts increased significantly, and the spot price also rose. The basis changed from positive to negative [54]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China increased, and Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China grew [55]. - Demand: The new - energy vehicle market continued to recover, and the energy - storage bidding scale increased [55]. - Inventory: The total social inventory increased, with upstream destocking and downstream restocking [55]. Future Outlook - The shutdown of the Jianxiaowo mine is expected to drive prices up. The futures price is expected to range from 75,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton. Consider reverse spreads and selling hedging [56][57][58].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trade tensions are easing, with the US initial jobless claims continuing to weaken and the labor market being moderate, leading to a positive macro - expectation. The nickel price is expected to shift upward due to potential macro improvements [3][11]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesian nickel ore supply is increasing, and the cost pressure is weakening. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded under domestic policies, driving nickel - iron prices to stabilize, but cost pressure still exists, and steel mill production has no obvious increase. The nickel sulfate market is active but with stable prices. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and market sentiment is cautious [3]. - Future outlook: The macro situation is expected to improve further, while the fundamentals have no obvious improvement expectation. The nickel price may shift upward driven by the macro factors [3][11]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Last Week's Market Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 122,550 yuan/ton to 124,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton; LME nickel price dropped from 15,523 dollars/ton to 15,320 dollars/ton, a decrease of 203 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 164 tons to 21,947 tons [4]. 2. Market Conditions Review Nickel Ore - Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 51 dollars/wet ton, and Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 37.65 dollars/wet ton. Philippine nickel ore prices in August decreased month - on - month, and the overseas nickel resource shortage has eased [5]. Pure Nickel - In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The export profit has narrowed, but the export window is still open. Russian nickel is expected to flow into China, and the inventory pressure may increase [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 900 yuan/nickel point to 908 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia in June and July showed different trends in year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons. The inventory of nickel iron decreased but remained at a high level. Stainless - steel production is difficult to increase significantly, and the consumption of nickel iron is limited [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,230 yuan/ton to 27,280 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate in June decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased, and the downstream and upstream inventory days decreased [7][8]. New Energy - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 537,000, a 23% increase year - on - year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The consumption growth rate of new - energy vehicles has slowed down. The nickel sulfate market is active, but the actual trading volume is poor, and the price increase is limited [9]. 3. Macro and Inventory - The US initial jobless claims are at a low level, and the manufacturing and service PMIs have different performances. The trade tensions have eased, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs. The current pure nickel social inventory and the inventory of the two major exchanges have decreased [10]. 4. Industry News - Indonesia urges entrepreneurs to resubmit mining work plans and budgets; the US asks Indonesia to resume nickel exports, but Indonesia will not lift the ban on raw ore exports; Vale is looking for partners for a nickel smelter project; Lifezone releases a feasibility report for a nickel mine; Russian Norilsk Nickel cuts its 2025 production forecast [12]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME nickel premiums and discounts, nickel futures and port inventories, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, but the overall tariff pressure has been reduced, leading to strong uncertainty in the policy. Most Fed officials still believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices remains uncertain [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Nickel ore prices have weakened, stainless - steel production has declined, spot inventories are high, steel mills' willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and the cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is still prominent. The power market has no significant changes, and nickel sulfate is relatively stable. Pure nickel continues the de - stocking trend, but the spot market is cold, and the premium has dropped significantly [3]. - Future outlook: Supply increases month - on - month, demand decreases month - on - month, and nickel prices lack fundamental drivers. In the short term, focus on macro risks. The nickel price may fluctuate weakly [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 120,540 yuan/ton on July 7, 2025, to 121,390 yuan/ton on July 11, 2025, an increase of 850 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,177 dollars/ton to 15,198 dollars/ton, an increase of 21 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 3,708 tons to 206,178 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 390 tons to 20,442 tons. Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium increased by 250 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. High - nickel pig iron average price decreased by 10 yuan/nickel point to 912 yuan/nickel point, and stainless - steel inventory increased by 1.47 tons to 93.1 tons [4]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from 52 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia dropped from 46.9 dollars/wet ton to 46.4 dollars/wet ton. Due to rainfall disturbances, the supply shortage at the mine end has persisted. With the long - term pressure on nickel - iron, some nickel - iron plants have reduced production and carried out maintenance, alleviating the shortage of nickel ore and causing the high - level price to weaken [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 907.5 yuan/nickel point to 905 yuan/nickel point. In June, China's nickel - iron production was expected to be about 24,550 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%, and 24,540 tons in July, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May, domestic nickel - iron imports were about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production in June was 136,800 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.51% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.26%, and 134,700 nickel tons in July, a year - on - year increase of 28.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%. The stainless - steel production has shrunk significantly, the inventory is at an absolute high level, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish nickel - iron is weak. The cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is increasing, and many plants have reduced production. If the production continues to shrink, it may drive the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose slightly from 27,400 yuan/ton to 27,420 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In June, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 24,795 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of ternary materials increased to about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.95% and a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. As of July 4, the downstream nickel - sulfate inventory days increased to 13 days, and the upstream inventory days decreased to about 8 days. The high inventory may suppress the material plants' replenishment intensity, and the nickel - sulfate price may be difficult to rise further [7]. 3. Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, with most countries seeing a decline in tariff rates compared to April. The Fed believes it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year and emphasizes observing the impact of tariffs on the supply chain [3][8]. - Fundamental: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and the smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The expected production of electrolytic nickel in July was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 1.25%. The export profit turned negative, which may suppress the domestic inventory de - stocking [8]. 4. Terminal Consumption - From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 135,000, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 6.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new - energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may drag down demand, and the export of new - energy vehicles to Europe is expected to weaken. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US will cancel subsidies for new - energy vehicle purchases after September 30. The domestic policy will focus on the automotive industry, and the demand is not expected to increase significantly [9]. 5. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 39,173 tons, a decrease of 1,144 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory is 20,442 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 399 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 206,178 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,708 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 226,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,318 tons [10]. 6. Industry News - Indonesia's approved nickel - ore production in 2025 reached 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [12]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 40,000 - ton nickel - based material production line in Morocco has been fully put into operation, and the base has a complete industrial - chain layout [12]. - Zhejiang New Era Zhongneng Technology Co., Ltd.'s project of producing electrowon nickel - cobalt in a sulfuric - acid system has been successfully put into production [12]. - Indonesian ITMG acquired a 9.62% stake in a nickel - mining enterprise [12]. 7. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventories, nickel - ore port inventories, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices first declined and then rose, with significant macro - impacts. Spot transactions were average, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. In the industrial chain, ore prices slightly declined, and freight rates may continue to rise due to insufficient shipping capacity. Ferronickel prices were weak, and the cost - line center of gravity decreased. Stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continued to flow out, and demand remained poor as July and August are traditional off - seasons for consumption. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, which is beneficial for nickel demand, but attention should be paid to the supply - side reform of new energy vehicles. The medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract is expected to operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices were affected by the macro - environment, with spot transactions being average. In the industrial chain, ore prices dropped slightly, freight rates might rise, ferronickel prices were weak, and stainless steel demand was poor. New energy vehicle data was positive for nickel demand, but the long - term surplus remained [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore: The price of some grades of laterite nickel ore decreased. For example, the price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $52 to $51, a decrease of 1.92% [11]. - Electrolytic nickel: The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price all decreased. Shanghai electrolytic nickel dropped from 124,620 yuan to 123,260 yuan, a decrease of 1.09% [12]. - Ferronickel: Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 3,600 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%. High - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 920 yuan/nickel point to 915 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 0.54% [11]. - Stainless steel: The price of 304 stainless steel increased from 13,425 yuan/ton to 13,487.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price: The price of some grades of nickel ore decreased by $1 per wet ton compared with last week, while the freight rate increased by $2 per wet ton [15]. - Inventory: On July 10, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.9649 million wet tons, an increase of 246,500 wet tons or 2.83% from the previous period [15]. - Import: In May 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.9272 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0131 million tons or 34.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 681,700 tons or 14.79% [15]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price: Nickel prices first declined and then rose, with average transactions. The overall demand was hard to improve, and the marginal cost also decreased to some extent [20][23]. - Production: In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37% [27]. - Import and Export: In May 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 17,535.551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,076 tons or 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,631 tons or 121.85% [31]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Price: Ferronickel prices continued to decline. Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and high - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 5 yuan/nickel [41][43]. - Production: In June 2025, China's ferronickel actual production in metal terms was 23,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% [45]. - Import: In May 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 848,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 3.8%, and a year - on - year increase of 197,000 tons or 30.2% [48]. - Inventory: In June, the negotiable inventory of ferronickel was 233,100 physical tons, equivalent to 21,000 nickel tons [51]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel increased. The four - location average price increased by 62.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [56][57]. - Production: In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the production of the 300 - series decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month [61]. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 125,100 tons and exports were 436,200 tons [64]. - Inventory: On July 11, the inventory in Wuxi was 62,230 tons, in Foshan was 359,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons [67]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales: In May 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9% respectively. From January to May 2025, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% respectively [73]. - Power Batteries: In May 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 123.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, prices fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The position has not increased significantly. Although the MACD shows a red bar, the upward trend has slowed down. Technically, the pressure of the upper golden section line is still large, and there is minor support such as the 20 - day moving average below. A range - bound view is maintained [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of different links on nickel prices varies. Nickel ore, ferronickel, and refined nickel are neutral - bearish. Stainless steel is neutral, and new energy is neutral - bullish [83]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [85][86].