Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trade tensions are easing, with the US initial jobless claims continuing to weaken and the labor market being moderate, leading to a positive macro - expectation. The nickel price is expected to shift upward due to potential macro improvements [3][11]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesian nickel ore supply is increasing, and the cost pressure is weakening. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded under domestic policies, driving nickel - iron prices to stabilize, but cost pressure still exists, and steel mill production has no obvious increase. The nickel sulfate market is active but with stable prices. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and market sentiment is cautious [3]. - Future outlook: The macro situation is expected to improve further, while the fundamentals have no obvious improvement expectation. The nickel price may shift upward driven by the macro factors [3][11]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Last Week's Market Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 122,550 yuan/ton to 124,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton; LME nickel price dropped from 15,523 dollars/ton to 15,320 dollars/ton, a decrease of 203 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 164 tons to 21,947 tons [4]. 2. Market Conditions Review Nickel Ore - Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 51 dollars/wet ton, and Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 37.65 dollars/wet ton. Philippine nickel ore prices in August decreased month - on - month, and the overseas nickel resource shortage has eased [5]. Pure Nickel - In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The export profit has narrowed, but the export window is still open. Russian nickel is expected to flow into China, and the inventory pressure may increase [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 900 yuan/nickel point to 908 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia in June and July showed different trends in year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons. The inventory of nickel iron decreased but remained at a high level. Stainless - steel production is difficult to increase significantly, and the consumption of nickel iron is limited [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,230 yuan/ton to 27,280 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate in June decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased, and the downstream and upstream inventory days decreased [7][8]. New Energy - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 537,000, a 23% increase year - on - year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The consumption growth rate of new - energy vehicles has slowed down. The nickel sulfate market is active, but the actual trading volume is poor, and the price increase is limited [9]. 3. Macro and Inventory - The US initial jobless claims are at a low level, and the manufacturing and service PMIs have different performances. The trade tensions have eased, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs. The current pure nickel social inventory and the inventory of the two major exchanges have decreased [10]. 4. Industry News - Indonesia urges entrepreneurs to resubmit mining work plans and budgets; the US asks Indonesia to resume nickel exports, but Indonesia will not lift the ban on raw ore exports; Vale is looking for partners for a nickel smelter project; Lifezone releases a feasibility report for a nickel mine; Russian Norilsk Nickel cuts its 2025 production forecast [12]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME nickel premiums and discounts, nickel futures and port inventories, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, but the overall tariff pressure has been reduced, leading to strong uncertainty in the policy. Most Fed officials still believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices remains uncertain [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Nickel ore prices have weakened, stainless - steel production has declined, spot inventories are high, steel mills' willingness to replenish raw materials is weak, nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and the cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is still prominent. The power market has no significant changes, and nickel sulfate is relatively stable. Pure nickel continues the de - stocking trend, but the spot market is cold, and the premium has dropped significantly [3]. - Future outlook: Supply increases month - on - month, demand decreases month - on - month, and nickel prices lack fundamental drivers. In the short term, focus on macro risks. The nickel price may fluctuate weakly [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 120,540 yuan/ton on July 7, 2025, to 121,390 yuan/ton on July 11, 2025, an increase of 850 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,177 dollars/ton to 15,198 dollars/ton, an increase of 21 dollars/ton. LME inventory increased by 3,708 tons to 206,178 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 390 tons to 20,442 tons. Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, and Russian nickel premium increased by 250 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. High - nickel pig iron average price decreased by 10 yuan/nickel point to 912 yuan/nickel point, and stainless - steel inventory increased by 1.47 tons to 93.1 tons [4]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from 52 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia dropped from 46.9 dollars/wet ton to 46.4 dollars/wet ton. Due to rainfall disturbances, the supply shortage at the mine end has persisted. With the long - term pressure on nickel - iron, some nickel - iron plants have reduced production and carried out maintenance, alleviating the shortage of nickel ore and causing the high - level price to weaken [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 907.5 yuan/nickel point to 905 yuan/nickel point. In June, China's nickel - iron production was expected to be about 24,550 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.82%, and 24,540 tons in July, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May, domestic nickel - iron imports were about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production in June was 136,800 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.51% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.26%, and 134,700 nickel tons in July, a year - on - year increase of 28.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%. The stainless - steel production has shrunk significantly, the inventory is at an absolute high level, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish nickel - iron is weak. The cost pressure on nickel - iron plants is increasing, and many plants have reduced production. If the production continues to shrink, it may drive the price to stop falling and stabilize [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose slightly from 27,400 yuan/ton to 27,420 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In June, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 24,795 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.68% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of ternary materials increased to about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.95% and a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. As of July 4, the downstream nickel - sulfate inventory days increased to 13 days, and the upstream inventory days decreased to about 8 days. The high inventory may suppress the material plants' replenishment intensity, and the nickel - sulfate price may be difficult to rise further [7]. 3. Macro and Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Trump's tariff turmoil has resurfaced, with most countries seeing a decline in tariff rates compared to April. The Fed believes it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the end of the year and emphasizes observing the impact of tariffs on the supply chain [3][8]. - Fundamental: In July, the domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and the smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The expected production of electrolytic nickel in July was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 1.25%. The export profit turned negative, which may suppress the domestic inventory de - stocking [8]. 4. Terminal Consumption - From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 135,000, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 6.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new - energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may drag down demand, and the export of new - energy vehicles to Europe is expected to weaken. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US will cancel subsidies for new - energy vehicle purchases after September 30. The domestic policy will focus on the automotive industry, and the demand is not expected to increase significantly [9]. 5. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 39,173 tons, a decrease of 1,144 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory is 20,442 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 399 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 206,178 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,708 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 226,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,318 tons [10]. 6. Industry News - Indonesia's approved nickel - ore production in 2025 reached 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [12]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 40,000 - ton nickel - based material production line in Morocco has been fully put into operation, and the base has a complete industrial - chain layout [12]. - Zhejiang New Era Zhongneng Technology Co., Ltd.'s project of producing electrowon nickel - cobalt in a sulfuric - acid system has been successfully put into production [12]. - Indonesian ITMG acquired a 9.62% stake in a nickel - mining enterprise [12]. 7. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventories, nickel - ore port inventories, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices first declined and then rose, with significant macro - impacts. Spot transactions were average, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. In the industrial chain, ore prices slightly declined, and freight rates may continue to rise due to insufficient shipping capacity. Ferronickel prices were weak, and the cost - line center of gravity decreased. Stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continued to flow out, and demand remained poor as July and August are traditional off - seasons for consumption. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, which is beneficial for nickel demand, but attention should be paid to the supply - side reform of new energy vehicles. The medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract is expected to operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices were affected by the macro - environment, with spot transactions being average. In the industrial chain, ore prices dropped slightly, freight rates might rise, ferronickel prices were weak, and stainless steel demand was poor. New energy vehicle data was positive for nickel demand, but the long - term surplus remained [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore: The price of some grades of laterite nickel ore decreased. For example, the price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $52 to $51, a decrease of 1.92% [11]. - Electrolytic nickel: The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price all decreased. Shanghai electrolytic nickel dropped from 124,620 yuan to 123,260 yuan, a decrease of 1.09% [12]. - Ferronickel: Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 3,600 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%. High - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 920 yuan/nickel point to 915 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 0.54% [11]. - Stainless steel: The price of 304 stainless steel increased from 13,425 yuan/ton to 13,487.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price: The price of some grades of nickel ore decreased by $1 per wet ton compared with last week, while the freight rate increased by $2 per wet ton [15]. - Inventory: On July 10, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.9649 million wet tons, an increase of 246,500 wet tons or 2.83% from the previous period [15]. - Import: In May 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.9272 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0131 million tons or 34.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 681,700 tons or 14.79% [15]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price: Nickel prices first declined and then rose, with average transactions. The overall demand was hard to improve, and the marginal cost also decreased to some extent [20][23]. - Production: In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37% [27]. - Import and Export: In May 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 17,535.551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,076 tons or 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,631 tons or 121.85% [31]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Price: Ferronickel prices continued to decline. Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and high - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 5 yuan/nickel [41][43]. - Production: In June 2025, China's ferronickel actual production in metal terms was 23,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% [45]. - Import: In May 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 848,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 3.8%, and a year - on - year increase of 197,000 tons or 30.2% [48]. - Inventory: In June, the negotiable inventory of ferronickel was 233,100 physical tons, equivalent to 21,000 nickel tons [51]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel increased. The four - location average price increased by 62.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [56][57]. - Production: In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the production of the 300 - series decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month [61]. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 125,100 tons and exports were 436,200 tons [64]. - Inventory: On July 11, the inventory in Wuxi was 62,230 tons, in Foshan was 359,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons [67]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales: In May 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9% respectively. From January to May 2025, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% respectively [73]. - Power Batteries: In May 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 123.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, prices fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The position has not increased significantly. Although the MACD shows a red bar, the upward trend has slowed down. Technically, the pressure of the upper golden section line is still large, and there is minor support such as the 20 - day moving average below. A range - bound view is maintained [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of different links on nickel prices varies. Nickel ore, ferronickel, and refined nickel are neutral - bearish. Stainless steel is neutral, and new energy is neutral - bullish [83]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [85][86].

Group 1: Report Title and Overall Outlook - Nickel is expected to oscillate due to the game between macro and fundamental factors [1] - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate due to the game between reality and macro - expectations [2] Group 2: Fundamental Data Tracking Futures - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 121,140, with changes of 2,000 (T - 1), - 650 (T - 5), 310 (T - 10), - 250 (T - 22), and 2,190 (T - 66) [2] - The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,865, with changes of 95 (T - 1), 155 (T - 5), 230 (T - 10), 405 (T - 22), and 210 (T - 66) [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 102,155, with changes of - 8,908 (T - 1), 23,166 (T - 5), - 48,400 (T - 10), - 5,365 (T - 22), and - 157,881 (T - 66) [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of stainless steel is 101,032, with changes of 2,396 (T - 1), 15,621 (T - 5), - 149,945 (T - 10), - 113,621 (T - 22), and - 51,265 (T - 66) [2] Industry Chain - Related Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 119,900, with changes of 400 (T - 1), - 1,950 (T - 5), - 600 (T - 10), - 1,700 (T - 22), and 625 (T - 66) [2] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 905, with changes of 0 (T - 1), - 4 (T - 5), - 9 (T - 10), - 41 (T - 22), and - 108 (T - 66) [2] - The battery - grade nickel sulfate price is 27,420, with changes of 0 (T - 1), 20 (T - 5), 20 (T - 10), - 395 (T - 22), and - 790 (T - 66) [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff fight and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [3] - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [4][5] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, affecting 11 - 13 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output, and it cut production by 40 - 50% in May [5] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [5] - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed违法 companies and audit the whole park [5] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6] - The 2025 production target approved by the Indonesian government for nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [6] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the nickel market was characterized by a bearish fundamental outlook, with frequent policy disturbances leading to periodic price rebounds. The macro - economic expectations were volatile, but nickel prices were largely desensitized. - In the second half, the U.S. economic outlook remains unclear with stagflation risks. Domestically, policies focus on supply, lacking determination to improve consumption. In the industry, Indonesia and the Philippines aim to control nickel mines, and the nickel ore market may not ease this year. The nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak market reality and strong cost pressure. - It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will trade between 115,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, and LME nickel will fluctuate between 14,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [3][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - Half Review - In the first half of 2025, the bearish fundamental logic prevailed. Overseas policy disturbances were frequent, such as the Philippines' plan to ban nickel ore exports and Indonesia's series of policies on mineral resources. Trump's global tariff policy in April led to a spread of pessimistic expectations. In June, the cancellation of the Philippines' nickel ore export ban and Indonesia's increase in RKAB nickel ore approvals, along with weak consumption, accelerated the decline of nickel prices [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 United States - In the first half, the U.S. faced stagflation risks. The real GDP in Q1 was - 0.5%, affected by increased imports and weakened personal consumption. Inflation showed a complex trend, with the CPI rising slightly in May. Fiscal support boosted residents' consumption, but the "Big and Beautiful" bill may impact residents' income. The tariff policy was implemented, and trade negotiations were slow [13][14][15]. - In the second half, tariffs and crude oil may support high inflation, while weak consumption may drag down economic growth [16][17]. 2.2 China - In the first half, the domestic labor market improved, with the unemployment rate decreasing and fiscal personal income tax increasing. Social consumption showed some recovery, but there was a lack of strong autonomous consumption. Corporate profits improved with structural differentiation, and private - sector industrial enterprises performed better [18][19]. - In the second half, the situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to policy directions [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Policy Disturbances and Nickel Ore Shortage - In the first half, overseas nickel ore resources were scarce. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore rose by 23.53%. The Philippines attempted to ban nickel ore exports, and Indonesia increased policy intervention. China's nickel ore imports decreased from January to May, and port inventories were lower than seasonal levels [23][24][25]. 3.2 Sufficient Supply and Resource Flow to LME - In the first half, domestic pure - nickel production increased significantly, with new production capacity coming online. Pure - nickel imports mainly came from Russia and South Africa, and exports increased, with resources flowing to the LME. The proportion of LME Asian warehouse resources increased [27][28]. 3.3 Nickel Iron: First Rise then Fall with High Cost Pressure - In the first half, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants first rose then fell. China's nickel - iron imports mainly came from Indonesia. In the second half, new production capacity will be put into operation, but demand may remain weak, and prices may oscillate at a low level [30][31]. 3.4 Stable Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price with Limited Consumption Growth - In the first half, domestic sulfuric acid nickel production decreased slightly, and imports increased slightly. The price first rose then fell. In the second half, consumption may not improve significantly due to weak demand expectations [33]. 3.5 Low - Level Stainless Steel Consumption and Slow De - stocking - In the first half, stainless - steel prices fluctuated with the real - estate market. Production increased, but inventory remained high. In the second half, the fundamental situation may remain weak, and trade policies may provide short - term support [35][36]. 3.6 Doubtful Terminal Consumption Resilience and Policy - Driven Car - Manufacturer Production Cut - In the first half, domestic new - energy vehicle production and sales increased, mainly driven by subsidy policies. In the second half, domestic demand may be affected by the end of subsidies and corporate cash - flow pressure. Overseas, the growth of new - energy vehicle consumption in Europe and the U.S. may slow down [39][40][41]. 3.7 Excess Resources Flow Outward, and Domestic Inventory Remains Stable - In the first half, pure - nickel inventory first increased then decreased, with resources flowing to the LME. In the second half, due to narrowed export profits, domestic inventory may increase [43][44]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, keeping pure - nickel supply at a relatively high level (neutral). - Demand: The real - estate market continues to bottom out, and new - energy consumption lacks independent driving force, resulting in limited demand growth (neutral). - Cost: Nickel ore shortage due to policy pressure provides strong cost support (bullish). - Macroeconomics: The U.S. stagflation expectation persists, and domestic deflation pressure may continue (bearish). Overall, the nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak reality and strong cost [45].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 6, 2025 [1][4][30][56] - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report on Green Finance and New Energy [1] - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [2][4][30][56] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Core View: Nickel prices may be under pressure at low levels, with a slight downward cost expectation and limited upside potential [4] - Fundamental Analysis: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The cost of the pyrometallurgical path remains high in July, but the premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined. The market sentiment regarding increased Indonesian quotas has eased, and the speculation sentiment has cooled down. The smelting end, including stainless steel production cuts and nickel-iron inventory accumulation, may limit the upside space of refined nickel [4] - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons. The nickel-iron inventory at the end of June reached a historical high, with a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 66% and 8%, respectively [6][7] - Market News: There were various news events related to nickel, including potential export restrictions from Canada, new project production in Indonesia, and the resumption of production at a nickel smelter [10] Stainless Steel - Core View: The supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5] - Fundamental Analysis: The short-term off-season demand is weak, and the negative feedback from the US tariff increase on steel products has been transmitted to the supply side. The production in July decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the inventory decreased slightly. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the profit margin has been slightly repaired [5] - Inventory Changes: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 0.20% week-on-week, with the cold-rolled and hot-rolled inventories decreasing by 0.53% and 0.18%, respectively [7] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Core View: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited, and a short-selling strategy is recommended [30][34] - Price Trend: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely this week, while the spot price increased [30] - Supply and Demand: The industry inventory decreased this week. The production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased due to the wet season, while the production in Xinjiang decreased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the overall industry inventory continued to decline [31] - Market Outlook: The upside space of industrial silicon is limited due to the lack of policy support and the slowdown in warehouse receipt reduction. A short-selling strategy is recommended [34] Polysilicon - Core View: It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and pay attention to policy announcements [30][35] - Price Trend: The polysilicon futures price increased significantly this week, and the spot price also rose [30] - Supply and Demand: The upstream inventory of polysilicon continued to accumulate, and the terminal demand declined. The silicon wafer production decreased, and the enterprises planned to raise prices [32][33] - Market Outlook: The market is trading on the policy expectation of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to wait for policy details and hold positions cautiously [35] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate - Core View: The profit margin of the lithium carbonate futures market has opened up, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure [56] - Price Trend: The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated upward this week, while the spot price increased [56] - Supply and Demand: The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high due to the increase in lithium ore prices and the profitability of external ore procurement. The demand is expected to weaken due to the "anti-involution" policy and the reduction of new energy subsidies in the US [57][58] - Market Outlook: It is recommended to short-sell on rallies, with the price of the 2507 contract expected to range between 55,000 and 65,000 yuan/ton [59]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated July 3, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core Views - **Nickel**: The support at the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, and steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The governance of involutionary competition mainly affects the downstream automotive industry demand, and attention should be paid to the amplification of volatility by macro - sentiment disturbances [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term sentiment disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upward space [2][13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures market is expected to rise first and then fall [2][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,220 yuan, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,670 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads compared to previous periods [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planned to continue maintenance and adjust production according to the market; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [4][5][7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the 2507 contract was 63,980 yuan, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a rumored suspension of an Australian mining company was untrue; a Chilean joint - venture obtained a lithium - mining quota approval [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,210 yuan, and the closing price of the PS2508 contract was 35,050 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices of related products compared to previous periods [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Southern Regional Power Market started continuous settlement trial operation [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on nickel is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, uncertain events such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies will disrupt the market. Domestic policy support is expected to increase, and macro - sentiment will still have a phased impact on nickel prices. Fundamentally, the oversupply pattern of primary nickel is hard to change, the negative feedback from demand is intensifying, and the bottom - seeking process of nickel prices continues. If the support from the ore end weakens, it may drive the valuation of nickel prices further down. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices) can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation. However, be vigilant about the impact of Indonesian policies and macro - news on nickel prices. In terms of operations, look for opportunities to build short positions on price rallies and use combination strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options to increase returns, while controlling risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, nickel prices first rose and then declined, with the price center shifting down. In the first quarter, policies in nickel - resource countries stimulated price increases, while in the second quarter, trade conflicts weakened demand expectations, and the oversupply situation intensified, leading to a sharp decline in nickel prices. As of June 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract was 120,480 yuan/ton, down 3.22% from the beginning of the year, and the LME nickel price at 15:00 was $15,195/ton, down 1.1% from the beginning of the year [7] 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Overseas - The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm remains uncertain. At the June meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the economic outlook shows concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy. The impact of tariff policies on inflation has not yet emerged. The Fed's dot plot shows a 50bp interest - rate cut this year, but more officials prefer not to cut rates. The Fed has also downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and raised its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts. The impact of tariffs on US inflation has not fully manifested yet, but there is still an upward risk of inflation in the second half of the year [12][13][20] 3.2.2 Domestic - The domestic economy is running steadily, but there are still pressures for stable growth. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and new export orders increased after the Sino - US economic and trade talks. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies, there is still a risk of decline in external demand. In terms of imports and exports, exports increased year - on - year in May, but the growth rate slowed down, and imports declined. In terms of credit, the social financing and credit data in May improved slightly, but the financial data has not yet shown strong momentum. It is expected that the central bank may continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will further strengthen in the second half of the year [23][24][26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side - **Indonesian Ore End**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel ore sales and use, and the policy may accelerate the clearance of some high - cost production capacities. The supply gap of Indonesian nickel ore can be supplemented by importing from the Philippines. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively firm, but the demand negative feedback may affect the ore price, and the downward space for high - grade ore prices is limited. In the first half of 2025, China's nickel ore imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventories showed a seasonal decline [29][32][40] - **Nickel Iron**: China's nickel iron production continued to decline year - on - year in the first five months of 2025. In Indonesia, new pyrometallurgical projects were put into production in the first half of the year, and the production of nickel iron increased year - on - year, but there were some production cuts due to cost - price inversion. In the second half of the year, the contraction of stainless steel production may affect the demand for nickel iron, and the profit of Indonesian iron plants may be under pressure. The number of Indonesian nickel iron projects to be put into production in the second half of the year has decreased compared with previous years [43][44] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: In the first five months of 2025, the import of nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate products and nickel matte increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of intermediate products slowed down. The production of Indonesian MHP increased significantly year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, more attention should be paid to the commissioning of wet - process projects [51][54][55] - **Pure Nickel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's refined nickel production continued to climb, but the growth rate slowed down. Both imports and exports of refined nickel increased significantly. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel and high - grade nickel matte has increased, and the cost range of integrated electrowon nickel will be the focus of pure - nickel valuation in the second half of the year [59][64][67] 3.3.2 Demand - side - **Stainless Steel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's stainless steel production increased year - on - year, and in June, Tsingshan reduced production. In Indonesia, stainless steel production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, but production is expected to decline in the third quarter. The apparent consumption of stainless steel increased year - on - year, but the terminal demand is weak. The export of stainless steel increased year - on - year in the first five months, but the impact of tariffs on exports is gradually emerging. It is estimated that the annual demand growth rate of stainless steel is about 3% [69][74] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In the first five months of 2025, China's nickel sulfate production decreased year - on - year. The MHP coefficient remained firm due to the supply disruption of cobalt. The production and sales of new energy vehicles remained high, but the proportion of ternary batteries in power - battery loading continued to be low, which had a negative impact on nickel demand. The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel increased year - on - year, with a growth rate of 3.6% in the first five months [80][84][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroscopically, the Q1 economic data in the US was below expectations, but recent performance was decent with no obvious economic disturbances. Geopolitical conflicts cooled down, and risk appetite in the previously weak commodity market increased, pushing up prices [2]. - Fundamentally, the shortage of nickel ore eased, and smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Nickel prices hit a new low at the beginning of the week, stimulating downstream purchases and significantly raising spot premiums. Stainless - steel prices rebounded due to sentiment, but spot sales were lackluster, and the terminal market remained weak. Ferronickel faced dual pressure, with ferronickel plants suspending spot quotes and only maintaining long - term contracts. The price of nickel sulfate was stable with no obvious fundamental improvement [2]. - In the later stage, there is no substantial driver for nickel price increases, and prices may回调 after the sentiment cools. After the implementation of the "Regulations on Ensuring the Payment of Accounts of Small and Medium - sized Enterprises" in early June, the payment cycle of car manufacturers to suppliers has been significantly shortened to within 60 days, which may lead to tight cash flow for car manufacturers. BYD plans to stop night - shift production in some factories, and production may be reduced by one - third. With stable terminal consumption expected, the tightened production schedules of leading car manufacturers may drag down the raw material replenishment of upstream material factories, and the new energy sector may weaken significantly. Traditional consumption has no improvement expectation, supply remains relatively high, and the fundamentals may weaken marginally. The price decline may be mainly due to the lack of strong real - world support for last week's price increase, and prices may fall after risk appetite cools [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/23 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 120480 | 117440 | 3040 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15245 | 14804 | 441 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 204294 | 205140 | - 846 | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 21257 | 21478 | - 221 | tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2850 | 3100 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 550 | 50 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 922 | 942 | - 20 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 92.1 | 92.6 | - 0.45 | million tons | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore eased. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore from the Philippines rose from $51.5/wet ton to $52.5/wet ton, while that from Indonesia fell from $40.9/wet ton to $38.4/wet ton. Smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Although the transaction price of Philippine nickel ore in July remained high, the shipping progress was slow, and the resource side's transition to a loose pattern was slow, so costs may remain high [4]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 921 Yuan/nickel point to 913 Yuan/nickel point. In May, China's ferronickel production was expected to be about 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%, and in June, it was expected to be 25,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In May, China's ferronickel imports totaled about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's ferronickel production in May was 141,400 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.89% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.36%. In June, the expected production was 142,000 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. In June, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel in China was about 1.816 million tons, an increase of about 18 tons compared with the same period last year, but the month - on - month increase narrowed. In May, the actual production of stainless steel was 1.87 million tons, stronger than the expected 1.78 million tons, the same as April's production. Overall, due to cost pressure, Indonesia's ferronickel production has declined for two consecutive months. Nickel ore demand has weakened, and the shortage has marginally improved. Although stainless - steel prices rebounded, spot transactions were limited, and it was difficult to boost ferronickel consumption. In the short term, ferronickel may stop falling but has limited rebound potential and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,400 Yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 29,000 Yuan/ton to 28,000 Yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate in terms of metal content was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61% and 2.27% respectively. In June, the production of ternary materials increased again, with a total of about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 30.95% and 1.36% respectively. As of June 20, the downstream nickel sulfate inventory days remained at 12 days from the beginning of the month, and the downstream inventory was at a low level, while the upstream inventory days remained at about 10 days, at a relatively high level. At the end of the month, there is an expectation of downstream replenishment, but due to the contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules, the intensity of downstream replenishment may be lower than before [6]. - **Macro - level**: The Q1 economic data was weak, but durable goods orders were strong, and the labor market remained resilient. As of June 21, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000 and the previous value of 246,000. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1 was - 0.5%, lower than the expected - 0.2% and the previous value of - 0.2%. The final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure was + 0.5%, lower than the expected + 1.2% and the previous value of + 1.2%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in Q1 was + 3.5%, higher than the expected + 3.4% and the previous value of + 3.4%. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in May was + 16.4%, higher than the expected 8.5% and the previous value of - 6.6%. In terms of monetary policy, Fed officials believe that both inflation and the unemployment rate are expected to rise, and the economic outlook is still uncertain under tariff pressure. Powell advocates continued waiting and deciding on monetary policy after more economic data is available, while some officials believe that the employment market is under pressure and support an early interest - rate cut [6][7]. - **Supply - side**: In June, domestic production capacity was stable, but smelter production schedules declined. According to the SMM's data, the expected production of electrolytic nickel in June was 34,150 tons, further decreasing from May's production. The sample production capacity was 54,099 tons, the same as the previous period. The expected operating rate in June was 63.13%, about 2.21 percentage points lower than last month. In May, the domestic export volume of electrolytic nickel was about 13,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.27% but a significant month - on - month decline. As of June 26, the export profit of nickel in China was $96.26/ton according to the SMM's data. Overall, the center of export profit has moved down, suppressing exports. Coupled with the weakening of nickel prices, domestic supply is expected to decline [7]. - **Terminal Consumption**: From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 691,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% compared with the same period in June last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market in China was 54.5%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 5.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency sales data, terminal consumption was stable. Although the year - on - year growth rate remained high, the data in June last year was weak after the subsidy policy was issued, so the base effect may provide support. As the base gradually increases after July, the year - on - year growth rate may decline. Currently, the core of consumption lies in vehicle manufacturers' production schedules. Affected by the payment - deadline policy, vehicle manufacturers' cash - flow pressure may become prominent, and they may enter the stage of active inventory reduction. BYD has announced the suspension of night - shift production in some factories, and the production of some factories may decline by one - third. The contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules may have a negative impact on upstream battery cell and material factories [8]. - **Inventory**: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 21,257 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 221 tons, and the LME inventory is 204,294 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 846 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 225,551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,067 tons [8]. 3.3 Industry News - **GEM**: As of the end of 2024, the company's domestic production capacity of ternary cathode materials was 20,000 tons/year, the production capacity of the phosphoric (manganese) iron - lithium demonstration line was 10,000 tons/year, the production capacity of cobalt - acid lithium was 5,000 tons/year, and the production capacity of sodium - battery cathode materials was 10,000 tons/year. The company plans to cooperate with strategic partners such as South Korea's ECOPRO to build a full - industrial - chain strategic cooperation body of "nickel resources - precursors - cathode materials" in Indonesia. The project will be implemented in three phases, with the first and second phases planning to build factories with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of cathode materials and the third phase planning to build a factory with an annual production capacity of about 100,000 tons of cathode materials, aiming to expand the project market globally [10]. - **Indonesia's MMP Nickel Smelting Project**: The 2 - nd electric furnace of the project located in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, was successfully ignited. The project team overcame various difficulties during the project implementation and laid a solid foundation for subsequent production [10]. - **Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base**: On June 25, 2025, the opening ceremony of the first - phase project of Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base was successfully held. The first - phase project has an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel - based materials, which is an important milestone in Zhongwei's global development and the first new - energy material base in Africa [10]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes charts on the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, the domestic - to - foreign nickel ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [12][14].

Group 1: Report Overview - Date: June 19, 2025 [4][9][13] - Report Focus: Green finance and new energy commodities, including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2][4] - Stainless steel: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, resulting in a weak supply - demand balance and low - level fluctuations [2][4] Fundamental Data - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 118,480 yuan, down 90 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 76,829 lots, down 23,626 lots [4] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,525 yuan, up 45 yuan; trading volume was 130,738 lots, up 25,428 lots [4] News - Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered trial production; a nickel smelter resumed production; an Indonesian冷轧厂 planned to continue maintenance from June to July [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [8] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipt clearance has accelerated, and potential purchases should be noted [2][9] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2507 contract was 60,480 yuan, up 260 yuan; warehouse receipts decreased by 1,746 lots [9] News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose; Yahua Group planned to restructure its lithium business; Ukraine opened lithium mining to private investors [10][11] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [11] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to be cleared, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][13] - Polysilicon: Upstream production has resumed, and the futures price has fallen [2][13] Fundamental Data - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 7,425 yuan, up 65 yuan; social inventory was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [13] - Polysilicon: The closing price of the PS2507 contract was 33,370 yuan, down 640 yuan; factory inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons [13] News - The US Senate's draft bill on the photovoltaic market did not ease industry concerns [13][15] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [15]