来源：每日经济新闻 另据报道，1月31日， 深圳水贝各大金店柜台前挤满了人，选款、称重、付款的市民络绎不绝 。目前， 深圳水贝现场金价是1262元/克，回收价是1081元/克。 在经历了此前的一轮强势上涨后，1月30日，国际贵金属市场遭遇 "大跳水"，国 际金价单日跌幅超 11%，白银价格更是以31.37%的断崖式下跌创下自1980年3月以来最差单日表现。 ...

来源：每日经济新闻 另据报道，1月31日， 深圳水贝各大金店柜台前挤满了人，选款、称重、付款的市民络绎不绝 。目 前，深圳水贝现场金价是1262元/克，回收价是1081元/克。 在经历了此前的一轮强势上涨后，1月30日，国际贵金属市场遭遇 "大跳水"，国 际金价单日跌幅超 11%，白银价格更是以31.37%的断崖式下跌创下自1980年3月以来最差单日表现。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Li Ning, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The discretionary consumption sector has experienced a significant pullback due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in global asset prices [4][13]. - The report highlights that the domestic sportswear sector outperformed other segments, while luxury goods and cosmetics faced notable declines [4][13]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of various sub-sectors, indicating that gold and jewelry, overseas cosmetics, and snacks have shown resilience compared to the MSCI China index [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Performance Review - The domestic sportswear sector increased by 0.6%, while other sectors such as credit cards, U.S. hotels, and retail saw declines ranging from -0.4% to -5.8% [4][13]. - The report notes that the gold and jewelry sector has outperformed the MSCI China index, with a monthly increase of 14.8% [4][13]. Sector Analysis - The domestic sportswear sector's growth is attributed to increased demand for warm clothing due to colder weather and positive media coverage of brands like Bosideng [15]. - The credit card sector saw mixed results, with Mastercard rising by 2.7% while Visa and American Express declined [15]. - The retail sector's performance was driven by specific companies like China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, which saw a 10.8% increase due to favorable policies [15]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the expected PE ratios for various sectors in 2025 are below their historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [11][18]. - For instance, the expected PE for the domestic sportswear sector is 13.4 times, which is 70% of its past five-year average [18]. Conclusion - Overall, the report emphasizes the impact of macroeconomic factors on the discretionary consumption sector and identifies specific companies and sub-sectors that may present investment opportunities amidst the current market volatility [4][11][18].

在经历了此前的一轮强势上涨后，国际黄金和白银价格1月30日继续大幅下跌，均创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。 美东时间1月30日下午，纽约商品交易所4月黄金期价一度跌破每盎司4800美元关口，跌幅超过10%；3月白银期价一度跌破每盎司80美元关口，跌幅超过 30%。 多重因素引发国际贵金属价格创纪录暴跌 新华社消息，市场分析认为，美国总统特朗普30日提名美国联邦储备委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，加剧此次贵金属价格大跌。沃什曾公开 批评量化宽松政策的副作用，认为美联储需要与美国财政部在政策上更紧密地协作。 美国劳工部30日公布2025年12月份和全年核心生产者价格指数（PPI）均高于经济学家此前预期，显示通胀逐渐融入整体经济。生产者价格上涨可能迫使 美联储维持"中性"货币政策的时间长于预期，利空金价。 分析人士认为，经历近一个月来金银价格暴涨，此次市场抛售在所难免。总部位于伦敦的布里坦尼亚全球市场公司资产经纪公司分析师表示，考虑到1月 份贵金属上涨的速度和幅度，此次回调并不出乎意料。 英国研究机构金属聚焦公司分析师认为，近来贵金属上涨行情呈现非理性，但鉴于投资者面临持续的地缘政治风险和经济不确定性，市场抛售或 ...

我昨儿去银行问金条，工作人员拿出报价单，说"今天1120，比上周少16块，但比回购价高50块"。我摸了摸柜台上的样品，冰凉，分量足。旁边大叔买了 100克存着，说"不图涨，就怕钱毛了"。我没买，但记住了：回购价1070块，是眼下最硬的锚。终端牌价虚高，期货打折6.1%，都是情绪在晃，可1070这 块铁板，没松。 今天早上看手机，金价跌得我手抖——沪金主连报1079块28一克，比上个月高点少了快一百块。老凤祥柜台牌价1498，周大生只标1425，两家差七十多， 以前从没这么大差距。我问店员，她说"最近好多顾客问回购价"，一查果然是1070块，跟T+D价格几乎一样。这说明什么？不是金子不值钱了，是大家突 然不想为牌子和做工多掏钱了。 跌得最狠的是带杠杆的品种。白银T+D一天掉了近14%，比黄金还猛。COMEX那边库存先堆到顶，又开始往回运，交割量七百多万盎司那会儿，市场就 绷着了。但央行没撤，2025年全球央行买金比前一年多了11.7%，一点没减。ETF持仓也稳，真正跑的是散户和一些程序化交易的单子。他们一撤，价格 就哗啦往下掉，像公交车急刹，站着的人都往前扑，但司机还在握方向盘。 有人说这跟1979年一样，瞎说 ...

今天分享的是：春节消费前瞻 报告共计：48页 春节消费前瞻及相关行业市场分析总结 国投证券国际2026年1月22日发布的春节消费前瞻报告，对多个消费相关行业的市场表现、发展趋势及重点企业情况进行了梳理分析。 旅游市场表现亮眼，2025年十一期间旅游总收入8090亿元，同比增长15%，游客数量8.8亿，同比增长16%，11月客运量已恢复至2019年同期水平，旅游出行 逐渐成为生活必备，春节有望延续增长态势。市内免税店扩容、海南自贸港封关等政策红利，为旅游免税行业带来新机遇。 食品饮料行业2025年下半年呈低基数态势，餐饮消费全年累计增长3.2%，6月后增速放缓，四季度受节假日效应回升；烟酒类消费受政策影响波动较大。商 品零售增速同样回落，但12月CPI同比增长0.8%，价格下跌势头得到遏制。相关大宗商品中，猪价、奶价、粮价处于底部区间，包材价格筑底或反弹，有色 价格反弹明显。 黄金珠宝消费波动较大，2025年金价持续上涨，短期压制部分需求，但长期上涨趋势反而增强消费者购买意愿，春节临近有望进一步释放需求。 纺织服装行业受益于春节冬装需求及米兰冬奥会带动，冰雪运动和户外运动相关产品需求提升，国家政策支持与消费回暖 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 商贸零售 商社板块 2025 年四季度前瞻 1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 1 ...

1. 零售板块四季度前瞻： （1）黄金珠宝：①老凤祥：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速-15%至 5%。 ②周大生：我们预计 25Q4 归母净利增速 15%至 30%。③潮宏基：公司 预告 2025 年归母净利润 4.36 亿-5.33 亿元同比增 125%-175%，测算 25Q4 归母净利润 1.2-2.2 亿元；2025 年底潮宏基珠宝门店总数 1668 家， 年内净增 163 家。④菜百股份：公司预告 2025 年归母净利润 10.6 亿-12.3 亿，对应 25Q4 归母净利增速 150%-254%。⑤豫园股份：公司预告 25Q4 归母亏损 43.12 亿元，24 年同期亏损 10.3 亿元，主因公司持续瘦身健体， 对部分存在减值迹象的房地产项目及商誉等计提资产减值准备。 （2）潮玩：名创优品：我们预计 25Q4 收入增速 25%-30%，经调整 OP 同比双位数增长，经调整归母净利增速 10%至 20%。 （3）商超百货：①重庆百货：公司预告 2025 年归母净利 10.21 亿，同比 下降 22.4%，对应 25Q4 归母净利同比下降 92.5%，主因消费大环境影 响、汽贸业态新能源转型拖累业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gold jewelry sector, indicating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong despite fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during the Chinese New Year [10][24]. Core Insights - On January 30, gold prices experienced significant volatility, yet consumer interest in Lao Pu gold stores remained high, showcasing the brand's growing influence [10]. - Promotional activities at Lao Pu gold stores and SKP malls are expected to sustain high-end gold brand consumption during the Spring Festival, with various discounts and gifts driving consumer demand [10]. - Lao Pu gold's fixed-price model contrasts with competitors that price by weight, leading to stronger consumer expectations for price increases, thus insulating the brand from gold price fluctuations [10]. - The report highlights that despite a drop in gold prices at the end of January 2026, certain Lao Pu stores in Shanghai and Beijing continued to see long queues, indicating strong brand appeal during price volatility [10]. Industry Data Tracking - According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49.2% year-on-year [11]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during this period were books and audio-visual products, automotive and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [11]. Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded changes of -0.44%, -1.62%, 0.08%, 2.38%, and -1.38% respectively, while the retail sector saw a gain of 4.18% [17]. - Notable stock performances included *ST Huike, Yiyaton, Yiwan Yichuang, Yuyuan Co., and Kaichun Co., which saw gains attributed to AI application catalysts [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cross-border e-commerce, particularly companies with strong brand power and product differentiation, which are expected to show resilience in performance [24]. - In the gold jewelry sector, the report anticipates that consumer enthusiasm will remain strong despite high baseline figures in January, with same-store growth expected to continue [24]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Chao Hong Ji, which is expected to benefit from new product launches and an increase in self-produced products, driving profitability [24]. - The duty-free sector is also noted for its potential growth, particularly with the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to significantly impact local and national duty-free businesses [24].

政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节数据 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.1.26-2026.2.1） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 蔡昕妤(分析师) | 021-23183557 | caixinyu@gtht.com | S0880525110001 | 本报告导读： 民航春运旅客运输量有望新高。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《金价持续上涨，春运出行高景气》 2026.01.25 社会服务业《新设口岸进境免税店，扩大免税市 场规模》2026.01.22 社会服务业《CPI 有所回升，CES 智能眼镜热度 延续》2026.01.11 社会服务业《消费政策利好，文旅行业迎来消费 回暖》2026.01.08 社会服务业《2026 旅游市场强劲开局，行业前景 可期》2026.01.04 股 票 研 究 究 报 告 请 ...