今年7月中国人民银行、农业农村部联合发布的《关于加强金融服务农村改革 推进乡村全面振兴的 意见》提出，要探索实施县域重点产业链"金融链长制"，推广"一链一策"金融服务模式。中国人民银行 四川省分行认真落实中国人民银行有关金融支持乡村振兴的决策部署，立足四川实际，聚焦四川千亿级 优势特色农业产业建圈强链，在前期试点的基础上，全面推行"金融链长制"，从专项服务团队、专项融 资方案、专项金融产品、专项配套政策、专项监测评估等五方面发力，不断提升金融服务专业化水平， 为打造县域富民产业链、加快乡村全面振兴注入强劲动能。 分链施策满足专项需求。中国人民银行四川省分行联合省农业农村厅、财政厅等部门建立四川千亿 级优势特色农业产业培育项目清单，为全省50个农业重点产业项目分别配备牵头"金融链长"及由银行、 担保、保险机构组成的金融服务创新联合体，并制定综合金融服务方案。指导人民银行各市（州）分行 联合产业主管部门建立重点培育主体名录库、投融资项目库，按照"一项目一专班"机制加大对重点项 目、企业的走访对接。 精准发力延伸产业链条。中国人民银行四川省分行还围绕农业产业链特点及不同环节经营主体融资 需求，指导金融机构开发特色金 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) EIA周度数据显示美国原油累库，汽油库存超预期大幅累库。委内瑞拉11月石油出口升至92.1万桶/ 日。普京表示俄罗斯无法接受欧洲试图对美国所提俄乌"和平计划"作出的修改。多艘俄罗斯货轮 在土耳其海岸附近的黑海海域遇袭。短期消息面多空交织，油价波动加剧。中长期基本面供需宽松 扩大,油价中枢存下行压力。 【责金属】 隔夜美国11月ADP就业减少3.2万人不及预期,就业走弱继续得到验证。12月降息概率接近90%已基 本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整体不宜追高。今晚关注美国周度初请失业 金人数。 【铜】 隔夜铜市增仓创高,LME注销仓单占比从低位快速升至35%,虽在中性水平,但引发市场对伦铜潜在 出库预期。LME0-3月现货升水88美元,市场关注物流流向,包括美国铜市仍具备吸引力以及国内延 续出口方向。海外投行上调铜及均价预期;艾芬豪稳定刚果KK矿年产量目标,嘉能可延续近年产出 压力。国内现铜高价跟涨,且沪粤维持升水,等待今日社库。多单持有,关注接近记录水平的量价 表现。 【铝】 隔夜铜价刷新历史新高，铝价跟随强震荡。铝市基本面矛盾 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美国 ADP 数据意外下降 【市场资讯】1）贝森特淡化美联储主席对利率掌控权，拟推动设地区联储主席居住年限， 称关税可重构。白宫取消原定面试流程，新美联储主席哈塞特"呼之欲出"。报道：债券投 资者针对哈塞特出任美联储主席的可能性警告美国财政部。2）美国 11 月 ADP 意外下滑， 就业人数减少 3.2 万人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增。3）美国 ISM 服务业 PMI 扩张速度创九个月最快，价格指标七个月新低，就业指数六个月新高。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，10 月份受上年同期基数抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规 模以上工业企业利润同比下降 5.5%。当前工业企业利润增速受"量价双弱"格局拖累，边际 回落特征显著，营收利润率偏弱的态势未得到明显改善。展望短期，预计年内规模以上工 业企业利润增速将持续面临较大压力，大概率维持弱势震荡格局。中长期来看，随着宏观 托底政策逐步落地见效，叠加"反内卷"相关政策推动行业竞争格局优化，企业经营环境将 逐步改善，2025 年工业企业盈利有望进入逐步修复通道。中国 11 月官方制造业 PMI 环比 回升至 49.2，整体呈现 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-04 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

文字早评 202512/04 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、法国总统马克龙抵达北京 开启第四次对华国事访问; 2、在推动人工智能之后 特朗普政府开始关注机器人； 3、夜盘铜、锡等有色金属价格大涨； 4、美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万人，为 2023 年 3 月以来最低水平，预估为增加 5000 人，前值为 增加 4.2 万人。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.28%/-0.64%/-1.07%/-2.15%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.66%/-1.47%/-3.07%/-6.06%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.73%/-1.75%/-3.86%/-7.14%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.16%/-0.38%/-0.40%/-0.88%。 【策略观点】 近期市场轮动加快，风偏有所降低。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长仍是市场主 线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 113.610 ，环比变化-0.25%；T 主力合约收于 108.040 ，环比变 化 0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market is further weakening, with the unexpected decrease in ADP employment in November, which intensifies economic downward pressure, weakens the US dollar, and boosts market risk - appetite [1][13][16]. - Gold prices are oscillating and closing higher around $4200, affected by the weakening US labor market and the expectation of future Fed's loose policy [2][13]. - The sugar market is influenced by the production situation in various regions. Brazil's lower - than - expected sugar production and faster - than - expected harvest progress in November support the outer - market prices, while the situation in China's Guangxi region and India also has an impact on the market [3][30][32]. - Copper prices reach new highs due to the resonance of macro and fundamental positive factors, such as the increased market expectation of Fed rate cuts and the significant increase in LME提货订单 [4][56]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI is 52.6, reaching a new high since February 2025. The ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, indicating a weakening labor market [12][13]. - Gold prices are oscillating and closing higher around $4200. The market expects the Fed to implement loose policies in the future, boosting commodities. Short - term gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's allies are discussing the personnel arrangement after Kevin Hassett takes over the Fed. US Treasury Secretary Bessent plans to reform the Fed [14][15]. - The US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000, indicating a weakening labor market, which weakens the US dollar. The US dollar is expected to continue weakening in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US November ISM services PMI reaches a nine - month high. The ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, increasing the market's expectation of a December rate cut to nearly 90% [18][20]. - The market is expected to be more volatile in the short term but should be treated with a bullish mindset overall [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Premier Li Qiang emphasizes combining urban renewal with safety hazard elimination and stabilizing the real estate market. China's service trade deficit from January to October 2025 decreased by 269.39 billion yuan year - on - year [22][23]. - A - share market is dull. It is recommended to allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 3, with a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan [25]. - The market sentiment of treasury bond futures is weak, but the TL contract is expected to have limited room for further decline [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's soybean production forecast for the 25/26 season is 46.9 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, but the sowing is delayed [28]. - China's soybean procurement situation and South American weather need to be continuously monitored. Soybean meal futures prices are expected to oscillate [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November 2025/26 season, Guangxi produced 133,900 tons of mixed sugar. Thailand's 2025/26 season sugarcane benchmark purchase price is 890 Thai baht/ton [29][31]. - India's sugar production as of the end of November is 4.135 million tons, and it is expected to produce 31.5 million tons of net sugar this season. Brazil's sugar production and sugar - making ratio in November are lower than expected, supporting the outer - market prices [32][34]. - It is not advisable to short the Zhengzhou sugar January contract, as the downside space is limited [34][35]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - 232 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. From January to November, China's home appliance trade - in exceeded 128.44 million units [36][37]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound before the December important meeting, but the overall space is limited [37][38]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Changzhi market has decreased. The first round of coke price reduction has been implemented [38]. - The coke market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with slow supply recovery and weakening demand [38][39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The national corn starch industry's operating rate increased slightly this week, and the inventory continued to decline [40]. - It is recommended to operate around the current North China processing fee in the rice - flour price difference strategy [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Wenshi plans to reduce costs and optimize production capacity through technological upgrading [42]. - The pig market shows a pattern of "stable futures and pressured spot". Near - end contracts are expected to oscillate under pressure, while far - end contracts can be considered for low - buying operations [42]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was weak on December 3, and the inventory continued to accumulate [44]. - After the end of replenishment, the steam coal price is expected to oscillate at a high level and decline seasonally from December to January [44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Vale expects to reach the upper limit of its 2025 iron ore production target and increase production in 2026 [45]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue oscillating, as the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [45][46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The seasonal inventory accumulation in the northern port is still slow, and the inventory in the southern port continues to decline at a low level [47]. - It is not recommended to short corn unilaterally. For far - month contracts, the medium - long - term strategy is to buy on dips [48]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil inventory may reach a six - and - a - half - year high in November due to high production and low exports [49][50]. - The palm oil price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the difference between the MPOB report and market expectations [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glencore lowers its 2026 copper production forecast but aims to reach 1.6 million tons by 2035 [52]. - The LME copper提货订单 increased significantly, and the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts intensified. Copper prices reached new highs, and it is recommended to buy on dips [54][56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project was successfully connected to the grid, and it is expected to be officially put into production in the first quarter of 2026 [57]. - The polysilicon market is under pressure, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. It is recommended to operate with caution [58][60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The utilization rate of new energy in October 2025 shows different trends. The production in the southwest may decrease, and the inventory is difficult to reduce [61]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval operation opportunities [62]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the 0 - 3 cash spread oscillated. The SHFE lead inventory decreased, and the delivery risk increased [63][64]. - The lead price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [64]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and the 0 - 3 cash spread was high. The domestic social inventory decreased, and the supply decreased [65]. - The zinc price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold positive - spread positions [65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Chinese scientists set a new record for the superconducting transition temperature of nickel - based superconductors [66]. - The supply - demand surplus of refined nickel has been marginally repaired, but there is still a surplus. It is recommended to consider low - buying opportunities with a light position [66][67]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Vulcan Energy obtained nearly $2.5 billion in financing for the European largest lithium project [68]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies and buy on dips in the medium term [68][69]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the LME tin inventory increased. The tin ore supply is tight, and the production growth is limited [73]. - The tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased slightly in the week ending November 28 [74]. - The crude oil price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events [74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt increased slightly this week [76]. - The asphalt market is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - China's polyethylene production enterprises are expected to produce 2.9798 million tons in December 2025, with a year - on - year increase of 18.39% [79]. - The PE supply - demand situation is bearish, but attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts [79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased slightly this week, slightly exceeding expectations [80]. - The methanol market's fundamental contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to conduct positive - spread operations [80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to rise today [82][83]. - Although the market sentiment is optimistic, the pulp supply is still in surplus, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [84]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased slightly this week [85]. - The styrene market is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance expectations and the behavior of port core cargo - right holders [86][88]. 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The full - scale promotion of methanol as a marine fuel still faces challenges [89]. - The container freight rate market is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to consider low - buying operations with a light position [90].

在我国农业现代化进程中，农民"贷款难、贷款贵"的问题长期存在，成为制约农业规模化、集约化发展 的瓶颈。农民若没有贷款，支付地租以及购买种子、化肥、农机具等会面临较大的资金压力，种植规模 很难扩大。银行虽然想提供帮助，但缺乏有效抵押物、资金流水等，难以把控风险。 传统的"保险+期货"模式虽然在一定程度上为农产品价格和农民收入托底，但难以全面覆盖从生产到销 售的全链条风险。面对这一困局，大商所"银期保"模式，使银行、保险公司、期货公司和龙头企业紧密 合作，为农民打造了一张从种植到销售的全周期"安全网"。在这张网里，银行变成了深入田间地头 的"合伙人"，与农民一起共担风险、共享收益。 "保单+订单"双重增信 建设银行乡村振兴金融部总经理吴敏表示，农业生产周期较长，抵抗风险的能力较弱，再加上农产品价 格具有较大的不确定性，必然会带来种植和经营风险。"保险+期货"模式通过保险与期货市场的联动， 帮助农户规避市场价格波动风险。不过，该模式更多聚焦于后端价格锁定。"银期保"模式的重要创新在 于，将银行从传统的资金供给方升级为农业全链条金融服务的重要一环。 据了解，新疆塔城"银期保"项目覆盖玉米种植面积3万亩，项目金额480 ...

全会审议通过的《中共江苏省委关于制定江苏省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》， 紧扣习近平总书记和党中央赋予江苏的重大使命任务，深入分析我省发展面临的形势和环境，聚焦事关 江苏发展全局和长远的重点问题，分领域部署"十五五"时期的战略任务和重大举措，明确产业发展、科 技创新、扩大内需、深化改革、对外开放、农村农业、区域发展、文化建设、民生保障、绿色发展、安 全发展等十一个方面的思路和重点工作，这就是未来五年经济社会发展的主攻方向。 发展新质生产力是"十五五"时期的重大战略任务，更是江苏必须扛起的重大责任。习近平总书记强 调，"'十五五'时期，必须把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战略位置"。江苏肩负着习近平总 书记赋予的"成为发展新质生产力的重要阵地"的重大使命，《建议》就"一中心一基地一枢纽"建设分别 作出专章部署。全省上下要聚焦这一战略重点，推动具有全球影响力的产业科技创新中心建设，强化高 质量科技供给功能；推动具有国际竞争力的先进制造业基地建设，提升科技成果转化落地效能；推动具 有世界聚合力的双向开放枢纽建设，增强生产要素创新性配置能力，筑牢新质生产力发展的坚实支撑。 方向正确、目标明晰、路径 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional high-energy and high-emission industries in Guangdong are undergoing a significant green transformation, supported by targeted financial services from the China Construction Bank Guangdong Branch [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Transformation - The China Construction Bank Guangdong Branch has launched a specialized service plan for transformation-linked loans to address the financing difficulties faced by traditional industries during their green transition [2][4]. - The bank has successfully implemented transformation financial services across various sectors, including thermal power, ceramics, steel, agriculture, paper, glass, and petrochemicals [2][4]. Group 2: Case Studies of Green Transformation - In Meizhou, the bank provided a loan of 98 million yuan to an agricultural enterprise for its low-carbon transformation, which is expected to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 4,000 tons annually [3][4]. - In Yangjiang, the bank supported a steel company with a loan of 65.4 million yuan for green technology upgrades, projected to save 2,331 tons of standard coal and reduce carbon emissions by about 5,809 tons per year [4][5]. - In Shaoguan, a paper company received a 30 million yuan unsecured loan to facilitate its low-carbon transition, addressing its raw material procurement needs [4][5]. Group 3: Institutional Support and Future Plans - The China Construction Bank Guangdong Branch is committed to enhancing its transformation financial services by optimizing financial products and participating in the establishment of industry standards [6]. - The bank aims to expand its services to more sectors, including chemicals and textiles, to further support the green transformation of traditional industries in Guangdong [6].

Group 1 - The company has not entered the pet pig market as of now [2] - An investor inquired about the company's interest in developing the pet pig market [2] - The company responded on December 3, indicating no current involvement in that sector [2]