全球股市经历1.6万亿美元抛售潮后，华尔街顶级投资机构对后市走向出现明显分歧，高盛CEO警告市场可能进一步下跌，巴克莱前CEO则认为这只是健康 调整而非熊市前兆。 当地时间周三，高盛总裁兼首席运营官John Waldron在新加坡表示，"我觉得市场可能会从目前位置进一步回调"，并指出技术面更倾向于保护性操作和更多 下跌空间。 相比之下，前巴克莱CEO Bob Diamond对市场前景相对乐观。他表示："我们看到风险资产被重新定价。在我看来，这是一次健康的调整，不是正在转向熊 市的征象。" 标普500指数本月已下跌超过3%，有望创下3月以来最差月度表现。投资者密切关注英伟达财报，这被视为检验AI热潮可持续性和市场稳定性的关键指标。 高盛警告技术面偏空 Goldman Sachs总裁Waldron在接受采访时表示，当前市场的技术面更倾向于保护性操作和下行风险。他认为今年市场已有相当涨幅，当前的回调"是健康 的"。 Waldron特别关注AI投资回报率问题："市场现在严重关注这种AI动态：我们是否会从市场预期的资本投资中获得回报，这是否已被计价？这是一个重大争 论。"他预计进一步的市场下跌将是温和的，"我不认为会比 ...

高盛总裁沃尔德伦表示，市场已经为可能出现的进一步下跌做好准备，而投资者将密切关注即将公布的 科技龙头英伟达的关键财报。 沃尔德伦周三在新加坡举行的彭博新经济论坛期间接受采访时表示："在我看来，市场从当前位置再往 下回调一点是完全可能的。我确实认为，从技术面来看，目前的倾向更多是增加保护，更偏向于防范下 行风险。" 标普500指数本月迄今已下跌逾3%，正走向自3月以来表现最差的一个月，同时市场波动性飙升。全球 最大一批科技公司的抛售，再次点燃了围绕人工智能的争论：眼下的业务收入和利润，是否足以支撑在 相关基础设施上巨额投入的合理性。 他在接受采访时表示："你现在看到的是市场出现了一波回调，我觉得这其实是健康的，毕竟今年以来 市场已经涨了不少。市场现在高度聚焦在这一轮AI行情上：我们能否拿到与投入资本相匹配的回报？ 这些预期是否已经完全反映在价格里？这是一场很大的争论。" "我们已经看到风险资产被重新定价。"曾任巴克莱银行集团首席执行官、现管理投资公司Atlas Merchant Capital的戴蒙德表示，"在我看来，这是一轮健康的调整，而不是正在演变成一轮熊市。" 戴蒙德同时表示，由财政支出推高的主权债务规模 ...

牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 关键时刻，外资巨头最新发声。 据最新消息，多家外资机构纷纷表示，中国资产对全球资金的吸引力正显著提升，并对中国股票2026年 的表现给出了积极展望。其中，瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪在最新发布的报告中指出，预 计明年中国股市将迎来又一个丰年，因包括创新领域发展等许多有利的驱动因素将继续支撑市场。 与此同时，摩根士丹利的最新报告也指出，预计中国股市2026年有望进一步上涨，延续今年的强劲涨 势。在盈利温和增长、估值在更高水平上企稳的背景下，中国在全球科技竞赛中重新站稳脚跟，同时贸易 紧张局势有所缓和，相关指数整体仍具备相对温和的上行空间。 今日（11月19日），A股三大指数集体低开后，全线飘红，未受昨夜美股大跌影响。截至10:00，沪指、 深成指涨超0.15%，创业板指涨超0.4%。板块方面，水产品、石油、锂矿、通信设备、有色、保险等涨 幅居前。 外资最新研判 11月18日，据追风交易台消息，瑞银发布的最新研报《2026年中国股票策略展望：再一次飞跃？》认 为，明年中国市场有望延续2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are on high alert regarding the unexpectedly weak demand for Japan's 20-year and 40-year government bond auctions, particularly ahead of the new government's economic stimulus plan under Prime Minister Kishi Sanae [1][2] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds rose to 2.815%, marking the highest level since 1999, driven by concerns over increased fiscal spending plans that may significantly boost inflation and exacerbate Japan's already heavy debt burden [1] - The 40-year bond yield surged by 8 basis points to its highest level since its public market debut in 2007, indicating heightened market volatility [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the previous 20-year bond auction was 3.56, compared to a 12-month average of 3.30, suggesting potential weakness in upcoming auctions [4] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - A faction within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is urging the government to prepare a substantial budget of approximately 25 trillion yen (about 161 billion USD) to support the forthcoming stimulus plan [4] - Recent data showed a contraction in Japan's GDP for the last quarter, providing justification for the government's push for significant fiscal expansion [4] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that as investors grow increasingly wary of the potential scale of stimulus exceeding market expectations, Japan's fiscal risk premium is returning, which could exert significant selling pressure on long-term sovereign bonds and the yen [4] Group 3: Global Market Implications - Amundi's recent report indicated that due to concerns over increased borrowing by the new Prime Minister, yields on long-term Japanese government bonds may reach new historical highs in the coming months [5] - The potential for a "Japanese bond sell-off storm" could re-emerge, reminiscent of past market disruptions, if long-term bond yields rise sharply [5] - The "Sanae trade" reflects market expectations for a revival of "Abenomics," characterized by stronger fiscal stimulus, industry support, and a cautious stance on monetary tightening, leading to significant fluctuations in the stock, bond, and currency markets [6]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about Chinese assets, predicting a significant rise in Chinese stocks by 2026, driven by various favorable factors including innovation and easing trade tensions [1][2]. Group 1: UBS Insights - UBS forecasts that the MSCI China Index will reach 100 points by the end of 2026, representing a potential increase of approximately 14% from the current level [2]. - The Hang Seng Index target is set at 30,000 points, indicating a potential rise of about 12.9% [2]. - Key supportive factors for the Chinese market include: 1. Innovation, particularly in AI, where China offers extensive investment opportunities outside the U.S. [2]. 2. Continued supportive policies for enterprises and capital markets [2]. 3. Ample liquidity due to ongoing fiscal expansion and a loose monetary policy environment, with expectations of interest rate cuts from both the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China [2]. 4. Potential capital inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The focus for 2026 will shift towards substantial improvements in corporate profitability, with UBS emphasizing that profit growth will drive market increases rather than valuation recovery [3]. - UBS anticipates a 5% revenue growth and a 10% earnings per share (EPS) growth for MSCI China Index constituents in 2026 [3]. - A 4% valuation uplift is expected, primarily from inflows of domestic institutional investors, retail investors seeking higher returns in a low-interest environment, and foreign institutional investors looking for diversification [3]. Group 3: Sector Focus - UBS highlights the technology and internet sectors as promising areas for investment in 2026, noting that China provides diverse investment opportunities outside the U.S. [4]. - Chinese AI stocks are seen as undervalued compared to their U.S. counterparts, presenting an attractive investment opportunity [4]. Group 4: Morgan Stanley's Outlook - Morgan Stanley projects a moderate increase in the Chinese stock market in 2026, with year-end targets of 27,500 points for the Hang Seng Index and 4,840 points for the CSI 300 Index, reflecting increases of about 6% and 5.9% respectively [5]. - The firm expects a 6% profit growth for Chinese companies in 2026, potentially rising to 10% by 2027, supported by trade benefits and anticipated interest rate cuts [5]. - The MSCI China Index's expected price-to-earnings ratio will remain stable at 12 to 13 times, aligning with current levels [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Morgan Stanley emphasizes the importance of stock selection, recommending an overweight position in high-quality internet and technology stocks while reducing exposure to real estate, consumer staples, and energy sectors [6].

今年迄今金价已上涨55%，主要受经济与地缘政治担忧、黄金ETF资金流入增加以及对美国进一步降息 的预期推动。（国际财闻汇） 高盛周一表示，各国央行在11月可能继续大量购金，这延续了近年来为分散外汇储备、对冲地缘政治与 金融风险的长期趋势。 高盛预计，9月份央行购金量为64吨，高于8月份的21吨。到2026年底，金价将升至4900美元；如果私人 投资者继续分散投资组合，金价可能会进一步上涨。 ...

Group 1: Market Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks may significantly increase gold purchases in November, with gold prices potentially rising to $4,900 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Policy News - China's fiscal revenue from January to October reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, up 2% [4] - In October, China's foreign exchange settlement by banks was $214.2 billion, with a surplus of $17.7 billion, indicating a net inflow of cross-border funds [4] - The real estate market in China is stabilizing, with second-hand home transactions dominating, showing a 4.7% year-on-year increase in transaction area from January to October [4] Group 3: Employment and Inflation - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson noted an increase in downside risks to employment, while inflation risks may have slightly decreased [5] - The White House's National Economic Council Director Hassett indicated mixed signals in the labor market, suggesting a potential slowdown [5] Group 4: International Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2024, primarily due to weak exports and residential investment [6] - The European Commission forecasts a faster-than-expected economic expansion in the Eurozone, with GDP growth projected at 1.3% for the year [6] - India's trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, influenced by increased gold imports and decreased exports to the U.S. [6] Group 5: Commodity and Industry News - Indonesia plans to implement an export tax of 7.5% to 15% on gold products starting next year [6] - Mysteel reported a decrease in iron ore arrivals in China, with total arrivals at 2,369.9 million tons, down 399.4 million tons week-on-week [7] - The coal market is experiencing a decline in operational rates, with a reported drop in production and inventory levels [8]

农产品板块，白糖、生猪跌超1%，红枣涨超1% 智通财经：瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪在2026年展望报告中指出，预计中国股市将迎来又一个丰年，因包括创新领域发展等许多有利的驱动 因素将继续支撑市场。MSCI中国指数明年末目标位为100，较当前有14%的上涨空间。 智通财经：下任美联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒周一表示，支持在12月的政策会议上再次降息。他称，他越来越担心劳动力市场及招聘活动急 剧放缓。他表示，"劳动力市场依旧疲软，且已接近增长失速的临界水平"，同时剔除关税影响后的通胀 "已相对接近" 美联储2%的目标水平。 | | 化工 | | | 黑色金属 | | | 有色金属 | | | 油脂油料 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 橡胶 rum | | 20号胶 nrm | 螺纹钢 rbm | | 铁矿石 im | 氧化铝 aom 铝合金 adm | | 碳酸锂 lcm | ə qalında qal | 豆二 bm | | 15295.00 0.33% | | 12345.00 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 11827, with a recent opening at 11975 and a current price of 11793, reflecting a decline of 1.76% [1] - The highest price reached today was 12027, while the lowest was 11766, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - Goldman Sachs Asset Management's 2026 investment outlook report suggests a divergence in central bank policies across major markets, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to a weak labor market [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates in the foreseeable future, while the Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December amid improving inflation and a weak labor market [1] - Japan's high inflation and strong growth may lead to interest rate hikes, supported by recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy [1] - Trade Nation's senior market analyst indicates that if silver prices fall below $50 this week, it could signal further declines as the market seeks reliable support [1] Group 3 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that recent cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials have reduced the likelihood of a rate cut in December to 43%, down from 62% the previous week [1] - The sentiment in the silver market remains strong, although prices have continued to decline, with resistance levels noted between 12000-12500 and support levels between 11500-11700 [2]

高盛分析师莉娜・托马斯团队测算显示，9月全球央行合计净购金量达64吨，较8月的21吨实现逾三倍增长，环比激增 204.8%，这一强劲势头有望延续至11月。 现货金价在10月突破每盎司4380美元的历史峰值，即便近期出现回调，截至最新统计仍稳定在4068美元/盎司水平，年内累计 涨幅高达55%，远超全球主要资产平均收益率。 全球经济复苏不均衡引发的增长预期分化、地缘政治冲突导致的风险溢价上升、黄金ETF资金的持续流入，以及市场对美联储 宽松周期的提前定价。黄金与美元资产的负相关性持续强化，2025年美元指数较年初下跌7.8%，而黄金储备在全球央行外汇 资产中的占比已升至18.3%，形成鲜明的反向联动。 高盛集团最新发布的专项报告显示，在季节性购金需求淡季落幕之后，各国央行的黄金增持行动再度进入加速通道。 高盛预测，2024年第四季度至2026年期间，全球央行月均净购金量将稳定在80吨左右。高盛重申2026年底金价将攀升至每盎司 4900美元的目标位，如果私人投资需求持续升温，这一目标存在上修空间。 全球央行连续三年购金超千吨，2025年前三季度累计购金634吨，这一规模已占据全球黄金年产量的三分之一以上。高盛指 ...