投资者希望看到更多结构性改革以提高国内消费能力。 本文为IPO早知道原创 本文由公众号IPO早知道（ID：ipozaozhidao）原创撰写，如需转载请联系C叔↓↓↓ 作者｜ 罗宾 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据 IPO早知道消息，近日，瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪发布观点："在为期两周的欧 洲和亚洲路演中，我们看到对中国股票的兴趣提高。" 他指出， 在欧洲投资者群体中，更多投资者目前对中国持中性态度（之前为低配），一些投资者目 前超配（在以前路演中几乎未见）。 "虽然考虑到全球不确定性，投资者普遍认同我们的观点，即中国股票相对具有吸引力，但全球基金 似乎对投资新兴市场总体上仍持谨慎态度，尤其是中国，全球投资者希望看到更可持续、消费驱动的 经济增长。" 因此，瑞银预计 外国投资者会有一些资金流入，但当出现更可持续的消费复苏或出台更大规模消费 刺激时，资金流入可能更加显著。 王宗豪表示： "互联网仍是最受欢迎的行业，大多数投资者似乎都同意我们的观点， 即中国大型互 联网龙头是布局 AI主题的最佳方式之一。 投资者对于已成长为或有潜力成长为全球或本土龙头的优 质蓝筹公司的兴趣似乎增强。 投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The RBC Capital Markets report indicates that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to a significant drop in the S&P 500 index, with a potential decline of 20% if oil prices surge and inflation rises in the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: Market Impact - The S&P 500 index could fall to 4,800 points in a "severe" scenario, representing a nearly 20% drop from current levels, while a less severe situation might see it drop to around 5,200 points [1][5] - As of last week, the S&P 500 index closed at 5,976.97 points [1] - The report highlights that the longer and broader the military conflict in the Middle East, the greater the negative impact on the U.S. stock market [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - The geopolitical conflict may raise concerns about consumer health, the broader economic situation, and the Federal Reserve's policy path, potentially leading to selling pressure on stock prices [2] - In a scenario where U.S. inflation rises to 4% and corporate earnings show zero growth, the S&P 500 index is expected to hover around 4,800 points by year-end [5] Group 3: Earnings Outlook - In a less severe inflation scenario, U.S. stock earnings are projected to grow by 7% year-on-year, with the S&P 500 index expected to be around 5,200 points by year-end [5] - RBC sets a year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 5,730 points, approximately 4% lower than the current level [5]

Group 1 - RBC Capital Markets predicts a potential 20% drop in the S&P 500 index if Middle East conflicts drive up oil prices and inflation [1] - In the worst-case scenario, the S&P 500 could fall to 4800 points, testing April's lows, based on assumptions of a 4% inflation rate and zero corporate earnings growth in 2024 [1] - Even in a moderate scenario, a 13% decline is expected, with a year-end target around 5200 points, while the baseline target is set at 5730 points, approximately 4% lower than current levels [1] Group 2 - The negative impact on U.S. stocks increases with the extent and duration of the Middle East conflict, as current valuation levels are stretched and any external shock could trigger a market correction [2] - Some analysts, like Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, suggest that certain indicators may point to better-than-expected corporate earnings performance in the coming year [2]

Core Insights - UBS Investment Bank's China equity strategy head Wang Zonghao noted increased interest in Chinese stocks during a recent two-week roadshow in Europe and Asia [1] - European investors have shifted from a low allocation to a neutral stance on China, with some now overweighting Chinese stocks, a significant change from previous roadshows [1] - Despite global uncertainties, investors generally find Chinese stocks attractive, but there remains a cautious approach towards emerging markets, particularly China, with a desire for sustainable, consumption-driven economic growth [1] Investment Trends - The internet sector remains the most favored among investors, who agree that leading Chinese internet companies are among the best ways to gain exposure to AI themes [1] - There is a growing interest in high-quality blue-chip companies that have either become or have the potential to become global or domestic leaders [1] - Investor focus is increasingly on sectors such as internet, technology, select global leaders, and domestic companies with strong fundamentals and limited tariff exposure [1]

Group 1 - Wall Street investment banks are adjusting their outlook on the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs lowering the probability of a recession from 35% to 30% over the next twelve months [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1% to 1.25% for this year, indicating cautious optimism about the economy's resilience [1] - A key factor in this shift is the significant reduction in tariff policy uncertainty, supported by recent progress in U.S.-China negotiations [4] Group 2 - The VIX index, which measures market fear, has decreased by 18% from its April peak, and dollar financing costs have fallen to a three-month low, indicating a stabilization in the financial environment [4] - Recent inflation data shows that the U.S. CPI growth in May was below expectations, suggesting that the impact of previous tariffs on consumer prices has been weaker than anticipated [4] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims rising to 1.95 million, but non-farm payrolls continue to show positive growth [7] Group 3 - Corporate capital expenditures are recovering, with the U.S. manufacturing PMI new orders index expanding for three consecutive months [7] - Retail sales in the U.S. are maintaining a month-on-month growth rate of 0.4%, reflecting consumer resilience [7] - The U.S. housing market is showing unexpected recovery, with new housing starts increasing by 5.7% month-on-month, the highest growth rate of the year [7] Group 4 - Despite short-term pressures easing, inflation risks remain, with concerns that new tariff policies could lead to a resurgence in CPI in the coming months [10] - The increase in import costs due to tariffs on machinery and chemical products is expected to raise intermediate goods prices, while the reshoring of manufacturing may lead to higher domestic production costs [10] - The super core inflation, which excludes housing, remains high at 4.8%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target, influencing Goldman Sachs' decision to maintain a 30% recession probability [10] Group 5 - Market indicators suggest a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the end of a three-week inverted yield curve [10] - However, business leaders remain cautious, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that the economy appears prosperous due to massive fiscal stimulus, while policy uncertainty remains a significant variable [10] - The nearing end of the corporate inventory rebuilding cycle and rising credit card default rates indicate that the economic endurance test is far from over [10]

近日，两起人事变动和一则公告将沉寂了许久的华兴资本，重新拉回市场关注的视野。 德意志银行任命Andrew Maynard为亚太区股票执行主管，他此前是华兴资本全球股票业务主管；还有华兴资 本旗下华兴证券原董秘、首席风险官叶生明拟加盟甬兴证券。这是自创始人包凡失踪之后，华兴资本及子公司 发生的又两起人事变动。 华兴资本是否已摆脱创始人包凡失踪的负面影响？据了解，去年10月包凡妻子许彦清出任华兴资本董事会主 席，她宣称华兴进入"2.0时代"，此后王力行出任华兴资本CEO，华兴证券管理层也进行了调整，但同时华兴 资本仍受益于过去投资新经济的成果，包括近期纽交所上市的稳定币首个IPO项目Circle Internet Group。 两起人事变动 日前，德意志银行任命Andrew Maynard为亚太区股票执行主管，值此股票资本市场发展势头强劲的情况下， 强化亚太区股票资本市场领域的服务能力，他将与亚太区股票资本市场联席主管Melody Ngan和Nora Yeung共 同协作。 据德银透露，Andrew拥有30年全球股票领域资深经验以及在亚太区的深厚客户关系。在加入德意志银行之 前，他担任华兴资本全球股票业务主管，全 ...

来源|华尔街见闻 黄金需求可能会进一步上升，关键在于"第899条"条款是否落地。 高盛贵金属团队最新报告指出，全球央行和官方机构（不含美国）在今年4月通过伦敦场外市场 （OTC）购入黄金68吨，远高于2022年疫情前的月均水平17吨。今年迄今为止，央行的平均月度 购金达到了88吨，已经略微超过高盛原先的预测（到2026年中为80吨/月）。 尽管如此，高盛经济学家认为该税改最终被取消或推迟的可能性较大。一方面，美国参议院有较大 概率否决这一条款。另一方面，即使通过，央行等主权投资者也可能被明确豁免，或将执行时间推 迟至2027年。 高盛重申做多黄金交易并指出，由于黄金作为避险资产的作用持续显现，我们维持此前的预测，即 强劲的央行购金将推动金价到202年底升至每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期进一步升至每盎司 4000元。 据华尔街见闻此前文章，由于全球央行大举增持黄金，加上金价飙升，黄金已取代欧元，成为全球 央行持有的第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 高盛指出，如果美国正在讨论的第899条税收法案导致央行减少对美债的配置，黄金需求可能进一 步增强。 第8 99条条 ...

黄金需求可能会进一步上升，关键在于"第899条"条款是否落地。 高盛贵金属团队最新报告指出，全球央行和官方机构（不含美国）在今年4月通过伦敦场外市场 （OTC）购入黄金68吨，远高于2022年疫情前的月均水平17吨。今年迄今为止，央行的平均月度购金达 到了88吨，已经略微超过高盛原先的预测（到2026年中为80吨/月）。 尽管如此，高盛经济学家认为该税改最终被取消或推迟的可能性较大。一方面，美国参议院有较大概率 否决这一条款。另一方面，即使通过，央行等主权投资者也可能被明确豁免，或将执行时间推迟至2027 年。 高盛重申做多黄金交易并指出，由于黄金作为避险资产的作用持续显现，我们维持此前的预测，即强劲 的央行购金将推动金价到202年底升至每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期进一步升至每盎司4000元。 据华尔街见闻此前文章，由于全球央行大举增持黄金，加上金价飙升，黄金已取代欧元，成为全球央行 持有的第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投 ...

【大河财立方 记者 王鑫】6月13日下午，郑州市企业香港上市全流程实战培训会在郑州高新区数算产业园举行。本次会议以"扬帆香江 资本启航"为主题， 吸引了众多知名投资机构、金融机构代表及郑州市50余家企业负责人齐聚一堂。会议旨在搭建起企业与国际资本市场对接的桥梁，帮助郑州市企业进一步了 解香港交易所上市政策，拓宽企业资本市场上市渠道，助力更多具有河南特色的"明星企业"登陆港股市场。 郑州市本土企业蜜雪冰城，自今年3月3日港交所上市以来，其股价已从首发时的202.5港元跃升至6月12日的533港元，其市值已达2000亿港元，不仅创造了 中部地区消费品牌市值新高，更显著提升了香港资本市场对内地消费企业的关注度。这一标杆案例，为郑州市企业对接国际资本市场注入了强劲信心。 郑州市委金融委员会办公室相关负责人表示，对于寻求国际化发展的企业来说，目前是重要战略机遇期。下一步，郑州市会着力打造规范、透明、开放、有 活力、有韧性的金融市场，着力建机制、优生态、拓平台、树品牌，继续在政策、服务、环境等方面，综合发力、统筹施策，用心、用情、用力解决企业面 临的实际问题，为企业发展保驾护航，助力更多优质企业境外上市，实现高质量发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference held by CICC focused on the theme of "Resilience and Reconstruction," discussing key topics such as the outlook for the Chinese economy, global asset trends, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economics - CICC's Chief Economist, Peng Wensheng, highlighted the shift towards geopolitical economics, emphasizing that the past 40 years of globalization and financialization are being reevaluated due to rising inflation and wealth disparity [6][7]. - The macro impacts of geopolitical competition include increased supply constraints and the rising importance of real assets, with China holding unique advantages in green industries and AI [6][7]. Group 2: Monetary Order Reconstruction - Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, noted that the global monetary order is accelerating towards diversification and fragmentation, which may lead to significant inflows into Hong Kong stocks [10]. - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is at a historical high, suggesting potential spillover effects if Hong Kong stocks rise [10]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Chief Macro Analyst, Zhang Wenlang, observed that while GDP growth is improving, inflation remains weak, indicating a "quasi-balance" in the labor market [12]. - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue to narrow, with structural highlights anticipated in the manufacturing sector [12]. Group 4: U.S. Economic Policy - U.S. Macro Chief Economist, Liu Zhengning, discussed the implications of U.S. tariff policies, predicting a short-term stagflation effect and a shift towards functional fiscal policies to stabilize the economy [15]. Group 5: A-share Market Insights - Domestic Strategy Chief Analyst, Li Qiusuo, indicated that the A-share market has shown resilience, with expectations for a "steady then rising" trend in the second half of 2025, contingent on supportive fiscal policies [16][17]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on certainty in uncertain environments, with themes such as mergers and acquisitions, AI, and high-dividend sectors [17]. Group 6: Global Market Trends - Overseas Strategy Chief Analyst, Liu Gang, noted a growing global consensus on "de-dollarization," although the extent may not meet expectations [18]. - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience structural opportunities, with recommendations to focus on dividends, technology, and new consumption sectors [18]. Group 7: Digital Financial Services - CICC is enhancing its digital service capabilities through the "CICC Insight" platform, which provides comprehensive research and data services to institutional investors [19][20]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to improve research capabilities and deliver valuable investment insights [20].