国债期货持仓日报 2026年3月27日 国债期货净持仓情况 国债期货成交概要 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 10/9 11/6 12/4 1/2 1/30 3/6 4/3 5/8 6/5 7/4 8/1 8/29 9/30 11/4 12/2 12/30 2/5 3/5 4/2 5/6 6/4 7/2 7/30 8/27 9/24 10/30 11/27 12/25 1/26 3/3 TS前五持仓 TS前十持仓 TS前二十持仓 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 10/9 11/6 12/4 1/2 1/30 3/6 4/3 5/8 6/5 7/4 8/1 8/29 9/30 11/4 12/2 12/30 2/5 3/5 4/2 5/6 6/4 7/2 7/30 8/27 9/24 10/30 11/27 12/25 1/26 3/3 T前五持仓 T前十持仓 T前二十持仓 两年期国债期货净持仓 五年期国债期货净持仓 十年期国债期货净持仓 三十年期国债期货净持仓 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, today the Nanhua Comprehensive Index rose by 0.48%. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Black Index fell by -0.11%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The sector with the largest increase was the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index, with a gain of 1.38%, and the sector with the smallest increase was the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, with a gain of 0.17%. Among the theme indices, the theme index with the largest increase was the Coal - to - Chemical Index, rising by 1.9%, and the theme index with the smallest increase was the Economic Crops Index, rising by 0.17%. The theme index with the largest decline was the Building Materials Index, falling by -0.25%, and the theme index with the smallest decline was the Black Raw Materials Index, falling by -0.05%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the single - variety index with the largest increase was Lithium Carbonate, rising by 7.17%, and the single - variety index with the largest decline was Soybean No.1, falling by -1.61% [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Nanhua Commodity Index Market Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The Nanhua Comprehensive Index (NHCI) closed at 3073.18 today, up 14.78 points or 0.48% from yesterday's close of 3058.40, with an annualized return rate of 21.21%, an annualized volatility of 15.16%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.40 [3]. - **Sector Indices**: - **Precious Metals Index (NHPMI)**: Closed at 1917.80, up 3.84 points or 0.20% from 1913.97, with an annualized return rate of 68.99%, an annualized volatility of 35.64%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.94 [3]. - **Industrial Products Index (MHII)**: Closed at 4222.06, up 24.67 points or 0.59% from 4197.40, with an annualized return rate of 12.74%, an annualized volatility of 17.10%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.74 [3]. - **Metal Index (NHMI)**: Closed at 7194.10, up 55.24 points or 0.77% from 7138.86, with an annualized return rate of 14.44%, an annualized volatility of 17.74%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.74 [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNF)**: Closed at 2062.70, up 27.52 points or 1.38% from 2020.70, with an annualized return rate of 16.85%, an annualized volatility of 18.62%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.90 [3]. - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Closed at 2607.54, down 2.76 points or -0.11% from 2610.30, with an annualized return rate of 1.66%, an annualized volatility of 15.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.10 [3]. - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Closed at 1087.68, up 1.83 points or 0.17% from 1085.85, with an annualized return rate of 7.90% [3]. - **Mini - Comprehensive Index (NHCIMi)**: Closed at 1423.96, up 6.30 points or 0.44% from 1417.66, with an annualized return rate of 7.49%, an annualized volatility of 26.53%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.28 [3]. - **Energy Index (NHEI)**: Closed at 1511.54, up 14.10 points or 0.94% from 1497.44, with an annualized return rate of 16.96%, an annualized volatility of 61.34%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.28 [3]. - **Petrochemical Index (NHPCI)**: Closed at 1272.16, up 22.06 points or 1.76% from 1250.10, with an annualized return rate of 12.95%, an annualized volatility of 38.05%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.34 [3]. - **Coal - to - Chemical Index (NHCCI)**: Closed at 1257.99, up 23.40 points or 1.90% from 1234.58, with an annualized return rate of 11.52%, an annualized volatility of 38.48%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.30 [3]. - **Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM)**: Closed at 1108.64, down 0.53 points or -0.05% from 1109.17, with an annualized return rate of 16.10%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.03 [3]. - **Building Materials Index (NHBMI)**: Closed at 708.49, down 1.81 points or -0.25% from 710.29, with an annualized return rate of 0.43%, an annualized volatility of 14.14%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.03 [3]. - **Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI)**: Closed at 1321.37, up 2.34 points or 0.18% from 1319.02, with an annualized return rate of 2.91%, an annualized volatility of 15.52%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.19 [3]. - **Economic Crops Index (NHAECI)**: Closed at 974.60, up 1.67 points or 0.17% from 972.93, with an annualized return rate of 10.78%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.11 [3]. 2. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Gain or Loss to the Index's Gain or Loss - **Nanhua Mini - Comprehensive Index**: Crude oil had a positive contribution of 24.76%, while palm oil had a negative contribution of 9.95% [3]. - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Crude oil had a positive contribution of 49.11%, and palm oil had a negative contribution of 23.11% [3]. - **Nanhua Comprehensive Index**: Crude oil had a positive contribution of 19.89%, and palm oil had a negative contribution of 9.92% [3]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Lithium Carbonate had a positive contribution of 27.36%, and aluminum had a negative contribution of -5.09% [3]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Methanol had a positive contribution of 9.55%, and PVC had a negative contribution of -8.98% [3]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Palm oil had a positive contribution of 35.86%, and iron ore had a negative contribution of -2.22% [3]. 3. Single - Variety Index Daily Gain or Loss in Different Sectors - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Coal rose by 2.17%, LLDPE rose by 2.01%, natural rubber rose by 0.30%, etc. [3]. - **Black Sector**: Coal rose by 0.91% [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Tung oil rose by 1.35%, soybean No.1 fell by -1.61%, rapeseed oil rose by 0.40%, etc. [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the PVC market shifted from "weak reality" to "strong expectation", with the pricing anchor changing from "high inventory, weak real estate, and loose supply" to "cost increase, marginal contraction of ethylene - based production, and pre - positioned policy window". The price increase in March was driven by event - based revaluation and expectation front - running, rather than the typical "peak demand season". In April, PVC will enter a more rigorous reality - testing phase [1][3]. - The short - term domestic PVC market will continue to fluctuate widely. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. Whether the PVC price can maintain at the elevated level in March depends on the fulfillment of support factors such as high ethylene prices, low ethylene - based plant loads, declining factory inventories, and marginal decline in social inventories. If cost support weakens and inventory improvement fails to meet expectations, the risk of price retracement will increase [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In March, the PVC market's pricing anchor changed. Geopolitical conflicts drove up oil and ethylene prices, increasing the cost of ethylene - based PVC. The pre - export window before the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1st strengthened the order front - running logic, pushing PVC prices from a weak oscillation to a significant rebound [1][3]. - In the futures market, the PVC futures price rose rapidly in early March. The main contract increased from 4,792 yuan/ton at the end of February to 6,251 yuan/ton by March 23rd, with a maximum of 6,364 yuan/ton and a short - term cumulative increase of 30%. After a subsequent correction, it was still up 18% compared to the end - February price [3]. - The spot market followed the futures market. The mainstream spot price of East China SG - 5 increased from 4,730 yuan/ton at the end of February to 6,100 yuan/ton on March 23rd, and then adjusted to 5,500 yuan/ton by March 26th [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - In March, the overall PVC supply pressure remained, but the structural contraction began to affect marginal pricing. The overall capacity utilization rate of PVC producers was 80.12%, with the calcium carbide - based production at 84.71% (up 1.79% month - on - month and 2.09% year - on - year) and the ethylene - based production at 69.24% (down 8.36% month - on - month). The decline in ethylene - based production load signaled a shift to "marginal cost increase" for pricing [6][7]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - Real estate demand for PVC remained weak. National real estate data from January - February 2026 showed a decline in investment, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume. The price increase in March was due to cost increase, ethylene - based production load reduction, and the export window, rather than the full realization of peak demand. The export policy was an important factor in March's market, and the change in export rhythm after the cancellation of export tax rebates in April should be a key observation variable [8][9]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Inventory was a key constraint on the PVC market. Although the inventory level was still high in March, marginal improvement was observed. The market's positive pricing of PVC in March was based on the expectation of simultaneous inventory improvement and cost increase [10][11]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - In March, due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, international oil, naphtha, and ethylene prices soared. The cost of ethylene - based PVC increased significantly, resulting in a large cost - price inversion with the futures contract. The calcium carbide price rose moderately, and the cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased controllably, with a positive profit margin. The profit of calcium carbide - based production turned from loss to profit in early March and then narrowed, while the ethylene - based production's profit turned from profit to loss and worsened [12][13]. 3.2.5 International Market - In March, the marginal pricing of PVC was more directly affected by ethylene, naphtha, and ethylene - based plant loads. International events increased the cost of oil, gas, and ethylene, which was quickly transmitted to the marginal supply of PVC. Future PVC price fluctuations will depend more on international variables [14]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In April, PVC will face a more rigorous reality - testing phase. The market is expected to oscillate. Support factors include high ethylene prices, low ethylene - based plant loads, declining factory inventories, and marginal decline in social inventories. Suppression factors include the end of the pre - export window, weak real estate demand, and high overall supply pressure. The market may shift from a rapid increase in March to a "high - level oscillation, waiting for reality verification" phase [18]. - Five variables should be tracked: Northeast Asian ethylene price, ethylene - based plant load, PVC factory inventory, social inventory, and export shipping rhythm after the cancellation of export tax rebates. Industry customers should conduct phased buy - hedging or rolling management based on order and raw material procurement rhythms, rather than simply extrapolating the March trend to the entire second quarter [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and improving demand expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with light positions and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [5] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a strong and volatile trend on the weekly line, with a rise of +17.09%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 168,440 yuan/ton [5] - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The Minister of Finance stated that fiscal policies will focus more on investing in people, increasing the proportion of public service and livelihood - related government investment, and intensifying inclusive policies directly reaching consumers [5] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of lithium salt plants has increased, boosting the demand for lithium ore. However, due to tightened overseas exports and uncertain resumption times of domestic large mines, the supply of lithium ore is expected to be tight, and the lithium ore price is firm. The smelter's operating rate has increased, and they adopt a strategy of holding prices and being reluctant to sell, with few spot sales. Chile's shipments have increased, and subsequent arrivals will supplement the supply. Downstream material factories are cautious and wait - and - see, and the spot market trading sentiment is weak. The export demand for new energy vehicles is improving, and the subsequent intensive release of new car models may drive the demand expectation [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 168,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 24,580 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 960 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,860 yuan/ton [11] - **Spot Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 9,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 10,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15,580 yuan/ton [15] 3. Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of March 27, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 2,355 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90 US dollars/ton [21] - **Lithium Mica**: As of March 20, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 13,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,363 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 538 yuan/ton [25] 4. Industry Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of February 2026, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 26,426.79 tons, a decrease of 431.27 tons from January, a decline of 1.61%, and a year - on - year increase of 114.36%. The monthly export volume was 596.077 tons, an increase of 124.52 tons from January, an increase of 26.41%, and a year - on - year increase of 42.9% [31] - **Production**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,520 tons, a decrease of 5,950 tons from January, a decline of 10.01%, and a year - on - year increase of 49.96%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [31] 5. Downstream Market - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of March 27, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 106,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 184,380 tons, a decrease of 33,220 tons from January, a decline of 15.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.87% [34] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 58,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,300 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 267,980 tons, an increase of 22,900 tons from January, an increase of 9.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 67.91%. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [40] - **Ternary Materials**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 53,590 tons, a decrease of 5,970 tons from January, a decline of 10.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The monthly operating rate was 45%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to decline [43] - **Lithium Manganate**: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,470 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from January, a decline of 2.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.61%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 56,000 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [48] - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 13,120 tons, a decrease of 2,510 tons from January, a decline of 16.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 108.59% [51] 6. Application Market - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: As of February 2026, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.18% of the cumulative sales of all vehicles (penetration rate), with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.87%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 694,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%; the sales volume was 765,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.05% [55] - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of February 2026, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 583,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 106.74% [58] 7. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.01, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week due to the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The export of high - concentration caustic soda continued to be favorable, driving up the spot price of 32% caustic soda, and the basis of the main contract continued to converge. [8] - The domestic caustic soda supply increased as the load of chlor - alkali plants in North, Central, and East China increased, with the national average capacity utilization rate rising by 0.7% to 84.6%. The downstream demand was mixed, with the alumina operating rate decreasing by 0.24% to 82.48%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increasing by 0.39% to 89.36%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remaining stable at 52.57%. [8] - The inventory of caustic soda plants increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons week - on - week, and the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong increased to 323 yuan/ton. [8] - The domestic chlor - alkali plant maintenance expectations are gradually being realized, and the export of 50% caustic soda is increasing. The spot supply and demand of caustic soda are acceptable, but the strong price of liquid chlorine may weaken the impact of chlor - alkali plant maintenance. The realization degree of caustic soda export benefits in the future may depend on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the duration of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. If the geopolitical situation in the Middle East further eases, the futures price is likely to decline to converge with the basis. In the short term, the SH2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2650 yuan/ton. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Price**: The SH2605 contract closed at 2442 yuan/ton, down 4.01% from last week. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2303 yuan/ton, up 6.97% from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 139 yuan/ton. [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased with the capacity utilization rate rising to 84.6%. Demand was mixed with different changes in downstream operating rates. Inventory increased by 4.93% to 52.54 tons, and the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong rose to 323 yuan/ton. [8] - **Outlook**: Short - term SH2605 contract to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2650 yuan/ton, depending on the Middle East geopolitical situation. [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of SH2605 fluctuated widely this week, and the position decreased. [9] 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda**: The benchmark price was 737 yuan, and the converted - to - 100% price was 2303 yuan. [14] - **Henan 32% liquid caustic soda**: The market price was 752 yuan, and the converted - to - 100% price was 2350 yuan. [25] - **Inner Mongolia 32% liquid caustic soda**: The market price was 784 yuan, and the converted - to - 100% price was 2450 yuan. [30] - **Shandong 99% flake caustic soda and liquid chlorine**: The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda was 3300 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was 275 yuan/ton. [35] - **Basis**: The negative basis of the 05 contract partially converged, and the number of registered warrants decreased week - on - week. [20] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Raw salt**: The price of northwest raw salt remained stable, and the price of Shandong raw salt decreased slightly. [40] - **Steam coal**: The price of 5500K steam coal in Qinhuangdao was 760 yuan/ton. [43] 3.3.2. Industry Chain - **Supply**: In February, the caustic soda output was 339.87 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.37%. The operating rate this week rose to 84.6%. [46] - **Demand** - **Alumina**: In February, the alumina output was 730.72 tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 82.48%. [51] - **Non - aluminum downstream**: The operating rate of viscose staple fiber this week was 89.36%. [55] - **Prices**: The alumina price increased month - on - month, and the viscose staple fiber price remained stable. [58] - **Import and Export** - **Import**: In January, the caustic soda import was 0.12 tons; in February, it was 0.04 tons; from January to February, the cumulative import was 0.17 tons. [64] - **Export**: In January, the caustic soda export was 34.99 tons; in February, it was 27.64 tons; from January to February, the cumulative export was 62.63 tons. [70] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of liquid caustic soda this week was 52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.93%. [74] - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong increased week - on - week. [77] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 56.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 56.92%. [80]

Report Title - The report is titled "Pure Benzene Market Weekly Report" dated March 27, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Affected by the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the decline in the operating load of domestic and overseas plants, the pure benzene futures fluctuated widely and rose week - on - week. The supply - demand gap is expected to further widen, and the price of the short - term BZ2605 contract is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. In the context of tight supply - demand, the upward price space is expected to be greater than the downward space [6] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Highlights - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the main contract BZ2605 of pure benzene closed at 8,880 yuan/ton, up 6.56% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 8,245 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 635 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 2.01% week - on - week to 72.57%, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 6.37% week - on - week to 67.83%. The domestic pure benzene output decreased slightly week - on - week [6] - **Demand**: The operating rates of pure benzene downstream industries changed differently. The operating rate of styrene decreased by 0.51% week - on - week to 69.95%, that of caprolactam increased by 1.64% week - on - week to 78.85%, that of phenol decreased by 0.71% week - on - week to 86.69%, that of aniline increased by 0.25% week - on - week to 88.58%, and that of adipic acid remained stable at 69.5%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream industries decreased by 0.03% week - on - week to 76.04% [6] - **Inventory**: Affected by the decrease in the arrival of imported resources, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports decreased by 6.60% week - on - week to 26.9 tons [6] - **Profit**: The profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 128 yuan/ton week - on - week to 480 yuan/ton [6] - **Outlook**: Domestic petroleum benzene enterprises are undergoing spring inspections one after another. The supply loss of petroleum benzene cannot be offset by the increased production of the hydrobenzene industry. Overseas pure benzene production has decreased due to the interruption of raw material supply in the Middle East. Port inventories are expected to continue to decline. The demand from the five major downstream industries of pure benzene has not changed much, and the supply - demand gap is expected to further widen. The oil price is still disturbed by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The pure benzene futures fluctuated and rose this week [8] - **Spot**: The spot price in East China fluctuated within a range, reporting 8,245 yuan/ton on March 27 [8] - **Regional Spot Prices**: On March 26, the market price of petroleum benzene was 8,000 yuan/ton in North China, 8,500 yuan/ton in South China, 7,965 yuan/ton in Northeast China; the market price of hydrobenzene in Shanxi was 7,750 yuan/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 1,052 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price of pure benzene in China was 1,061 US dollars/ton [14][19][23] 3. Industry Situation - **Operating Rates** - The operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased week - on - week, while that of hydrobenzene increased week - on - week [28] - The operating rate of styrene decreased week - on - week, and the non - integrated profit decreased [47] - The operating rate of caprolactam increased, and the profit widened [51] - The operating rate of the phenol industry was 86.69% [56] - The operating rate of the aniline industry was 88.58% [60] - The operating rate of the adipic acid industry was 69.5% [64] - **Imports**: In January, the import volume of pure benzene was 39.90 tons; in February, it was 41.53 tons. The import window was closed this week [31] - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports decreased week - on - week, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period [35] - **Cost and Profit** - The production cost of petroleum benzene increased week - on - week, and the weekly average profit decreased [38] - The production cost of hydrobenzene increased week - on - week, and the profit increased [43] 4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the pure benzene main contract was reported at 66.17%, and the implied volatility of the main at - the - money options was around 68.2% [68]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.3.27」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 作者：廖宏斌 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -1.41% | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.01%/本周变动-0.01BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -1.72% | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.00% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体下跌。四期指亦集体 | 本周点评：债市此轮通胀交易已接近尾声，短期内市场 | | | 走弱，大盘蓝筹股弱于中小盘股，其中，中证500表现 | 逻辑或转向资金面与风险偏好变化。当前流动性保持充 | | | 最为坚挺。本周，市场处于宏观数据真空期，市场受到 | 裕，资金价格维持低位，短端利率相对稳定，长端利率 | | | 海外地缘冲突局势反复变化而呈现宽幅震荡。本周，市 | 存 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market from Ruida Futures Research Institute, covering the period up to March 27, 2026 [2] - The report analyzes the precious metals market from aspects including market trends, supply - demand, and macro - data [6] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the precious metals market showed a volatile pattern of initial stabilization and then decline. The pricing logic is a repeated game between "geopolitical hedging, re - inflation expectations, and high - interest - rate constraints" [8] - In the short - term, the precious metals market will continue to play out based on the development of the US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and potential economic stagflation risks. Inflation expectations, central bank policies, oil prices, and the US dollar are current major risk factors. In the long - term, gold's attractiveness as a macro - hedging asset remains [8] - The strategy suggests short - term caution and long - term buying on dips [8] Group 4: Weekly Summary Market Trends - This week, the precious metals market first stabilized and then declined. Geopolitical factors and macro - economic data affected the market. The US - Iran situation caused fluctuations in oil prices and the US dollar, and macro - data showed a slowdown in economic sentiment and strong core inflation [8] Future Outlook - The precious metals market will continue to be affected by the US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and potential stagflation risks. If the US economy slows and inflation rises, precious metals may benefit. Otherwise, their rebound space will be limited [8] Group 5: Futures and Spot Market Price Changes - As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2606 was at 17,489 yuan/kg, down 0.77% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2606 was at 998.66 yuan/g, down 3.90% for the week [13] ETF Holdings - As of March 26, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF net position decreased by 0.89% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF net position increased by 1.50% month - on - month [18] - As of February 2026, European gold ETF investment demand declined, while North American and Asian demand remained strong [19] Net Long Positions - As of March 17, 2026, COMEX gold and silver net long positions decreased, with gold down 2.0% and silver down 10.79% [28] Basis and Spread - As of March 26, 2026, the basis of Shanghai gold and silver main contracts weakened week - on - week; the internal - external spread of gold and silver narrowed week - on - week [31][34] Inventory Changes - As of March 19, 2026, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while SHFE gold and silver inventories increased [37] Gold - Silver Ratio - As of March 19, 2026, the gold - silver ratio (London gold/silver price) was 64.36, down 1.80% ( - 2.72%) from the previous week [41] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver Industry - As of February 2026, silver ore and concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, while silver imports increased month - on - month [45] - Due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, integrated circuit production continued to rise, with a stable year - on - year growth rate [47] Gold Supply - Demand - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand reaching 2175 tons. Gold ETF net positions increased by 801 tons [53] Silver Supply - Demand - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to increased mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, and the market shortage narrowed significantly [55] Group 7: Macro and Options Macro Data - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued to strengthen. As of March 26, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.90, up 0.70% week - on - week; the 10Y US Treasury real yield was 2.02%, up 0.16% week - on - week [62] - The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility rebounded significantly, and the S&P 500/London gold price ratio rebounded [64] Central Bank Gold Buying - Since the beginning of the year, the pace of global central bank gold buying has cooled, but in the long - term, gold as a macro - hedging asset remains attractive. As of the end of February 2026, China's gold reserves reached 74.22 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of January [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the downstream industry's resistance to high prices, PVC futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week. As of March 27, 2026, V2605 closed at 5,615 yuan/ton, down 4.43% from the previous week [8]. - On the supply side, Yantai Wanhua restarted and some device loads were adjusted upwards. The PVC production capacity utilization rate increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 80.92%. The calcium carbide process start - up rate increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 85.24%, and the ethylene process start - up rate increased by 1.46% week - on - week to 70.70% [8]. - On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 4.3% week - on - week to 45.96%, and the pipe start - up rate increased by 2% week - on - week to 41.2% [8]. - In terms of inventory, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.20% week - on - week to 1.374 million tons, and the inventory level remained high [8]. - In terms of cost, the calcium carbide price increased this week. The average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased by 2.62% week - on - week to 5,533 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as ethylene and VCM increased, driving the cost of the ethylene process to increase by 7.84% week - on - week to 7,867 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased by 228 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased by 322 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 778 yuan/ton [8]. - Looking ahead, the ethylene process plants in China continue to reduce their loads due to raw material supply. Calcium carbide process enterprises may postpone their maintenance plans to seize the profit window. PVC supply is not expected to decline significantly. The downstream start - up rate continues to increase seasonally, but the lack of orders from product enterprises and the resistance to high prices suppress the overall demand for PVC. Overseas ethylene process plants have shut down due to raw material shortages, and the improvement of the export side may depend on the duration of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, the price support of domestic supply and demand for PVC has weakened. In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 5,200 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: PVC futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week. V2605 closed at 5,615 yuan/ton, down 4.43% from the previous week [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side capacity utilization increased, demand - side start - up rate increased, inventory increased slightly, cost increased, and profit decreased [8]. - Outlook: PVC supply is not expected to decline significantly, demand is suppressed, and the export improvement depends on geopolitical factors. Short - term V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: V2605 declined week - on - week [9]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts decreased week - on - week [9]. - Position: The position of the 05 contract decreased week - on - week [13]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread decreased week - on - week [13]. 3.3 Spot Market - Import and export prices: CFR China and Southeast Asia quotes increased by 10 US dollars to 1,060 US dollars/ton, and the Indian quote remained unchanged at 1,050 US dollars/ton [19][23]. - Domestic prices: The spot price of calcium carbide process in East China decreased, while the spot price of ethylene process increased significantly [26]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated widely, and the spot was slightly at a discount [31]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Lanthanum charcoal and calcium carbide: The prices of lanthanum charcoal and calcium carbide increased week - on - week. The start - up rate of lanthanum charcoal was 55.44%, and the start - up rate of calcium carbide was 68.46% [35][40]. - EDC and VCM: The CIF intermediate price of VCM was 920 US dollars/ton, and the international price of EDC was 351 US dollars/ton [44]. 3.5 Industry Chain Situation - Supply: In 2026, only 300,000 tons of PVC plants were put into production. The output in February was 1.9851 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week [48][52]. - Demand: The pipe start - up rate was 39.2%, the profile start - up rate was 34.35%. The export volume of PVC floor products was 393,200 tons in January and 322,300 tons in March [55][59]. - Import and export: The import volume was 14,000 tons in January and 8,500 tons in February. The export volume was 285,500 tons in January and 312,100 tons in February [62]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory increased week - on - week, and the inventory level was high [67]. - Cost: The cost of the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process increased week - on - week [71]. - Profit: The profit of the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process decreased week - on - week [79]. 3.6 Options Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 52.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 47.39% [84].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.03.27」 苯乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 添加客服 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：苯乙烯主力换月至05合约。中东地缘局势反复，本周苯乙烯期货跟随油价宽幅震荡。截至2026年3月 27日，苯乙烯主力EB2605合约报收于10624元/吨，较上周收盘价上涨4.66%。 基本面：供应端，恒力72万吨装置重启，华北、华南部分装置负荷调整，本周苯乙烯产量环比-0.71%至 35.09万吨，产能利用率环比-0.51%至69.95%。需求端，本周苯乙烯下游开工率以降为主，其中EPS开工率 环比+2.27%至63.27%，PS开工率环比-0.2%至51.4%，ABS开工率环比-4.5%至62.6%，UPR开工率环比- 2%至35%，丁苯橡胶开工率环比-0.53%至73.53%。库存方面，苯乙烯工厂库存环比-7.47%至16.49万吨， 华东港口库存环 ...