摘要 ► 本 周数据： 2025年5月第4周（5.19-5.25）乘用车销量39.9万辆，同比+12.1%，环比+2.6%；新能源乘用车销量22.2万辆，同比+20.4%，环比+2.0%；新能源渗透率55.4%， 环比-0.4%。 ► 本周行情 ： 汽车板块本周表现弱于市场 本周（5月26日-5月30日）A股汽车板块下跌2.90%，在申万子行业中排名第30位，表现弱于沪深300（-1.49%）。细分板块中，汽车服务上涨2.13%，商用载客车、 商用载货车、汽车零部件、摩托车及其他、乘用车分别下跌0.48%、0.52%、1.79%、2.66%、5.59%。 ► 本周观点： 本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、比亚迪、小鹏汽车、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ► 无人配送需求强劲 L4场景应用加速落地 需求端：人力缺口与成本压力驱动刚需。 快递业务量5年CAGR达22.5%，但快递员数量CAGR仅1.4%，2024年人均日配送量超100件；末端配送占物流成本60% （"最后五公里"），无人化可降本增效填补人力缺口。 供给端：技术规模化带来成本革命。 乘用车L2+渗透率超90%（2030年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China has experienced a "double increase" in sales for May 2025, indicating a positive trend amidst previous pessimism, driven by policies and market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May 2025, approximately 83,000 heavy trucks were sold in China, representing a 6% year-on-year increase from 78,200 units in the same month last year, despite a slight month-on-month decline of 5% from April [5]. - Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, the heavy truck market recorded sales of about 435,500 units, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of approximately 1% [5]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy for National IV trucks has significantly stimulated the market, leading to a notable increase in both wholesale and terminal sales of heavy trucks in May [7]. - As of now, over half of the provinces and regions have implemented the "old-for-new" policy, which has positively influenced the demand for new heavy trucks [7]. Group 3: Segment Performance - The terminal sales of heavy trucks in May are expected to have increased by over 20% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month decline of around 5% [10]. - Electric heavy trucks have seen a remarkable growth, with sales exceeding 15,000 units in May, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 190%, and achieving a market penetration rate of over 23% [13][14]. - Diesel heavy trucks also experienced a significant increase in sales, with an estimated year-on-year growth of around 31% in May [16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The heavy truck market is expected to maintain continuous growth in June, driven by the ongoing implementation of the "old-for-new" policies [18]. - The sales decline of natural gas heavy trucks is anticipated to narrow to single digits in June, creating favorable conditions for a rebound in the second half of the year [18].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in subsidy policy for heavy - duty trucks can significantly boost the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in the following year [3][16]. - In 2025, the new policy expands the replacement scope of natural gas heavy - duty trucks and "National IV" standard heavy - duty trucks, which is expected to bring an additional 100,000 units of heavy - duty truck sales, increasing the sales volume from 900,000 units in 2024 to 1,000,000 units, with an increase of about 10%, and the upper limit of the corresponding rubber demand pull may reach about 2% [3][51][62]. - Currently, the large price difference between diesel and natural gas, combined with the inclusion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the 2025 trade - in subsidy policy, is expected to drive the continuous increase in the sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks [3][47][61]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface - The automobile industry is crucial to the economy, including promoting GDP growth, activating the consumer market, and attracting investment. When automobile sales are sluggish, the state will introduce stimulus policies such as trade - in subsidies [9]. - Since 2000, China's automobile sales have gone through stages of high - speed development, adjustment, and stable development. When sales are sluggish, the state has introduced purchase tax exemption policies and, more recently, trade - in subsidy policies [10][12][13]. 2. Review of China's Heavy - Duty Truck Trade - in Subsidy Policy - In 2009, two policies were issued. The subsidy amount was initially 0.3 - 0.6 million yuan per vehicle and later increased to 0.5 - 1.8 million yuan per vehicle. This policy significantly increased the heavy - duty truck sales growth rate in 2010 from 2.27% in 2009 to 37.7% [14][60]. - In 2015, a policy targeted at semi - trailers and heavy - duty trucks was introduced, with a subsidy of 1.8 million yuan per vehicle. This policy led to significant growth in heavy - duty truck sales from 2016 - 2017, with year - on - year growth rates of 29.51% and 56.12% respectively [15][61]. - From 2019 to the present, many cities have introduced trade - in subsidy policies for operating trucks, and despite the economic downturn, the total annual sales of heavy - duty trucks in China have remained on an upward trend [25][26]. 3. Frequent Introduction of Heavy - Duty Truck Trade - in Subsidy Policies in the Past Two Years - In 2024, multiple trade - in subsidy policies were introduced, but the heavy - duty truck sales did not recover, mainly due to weak real estate demand and low "National III" vehicle ownership, low upgrade willingness, and vehicle condition and procedure issues [36][44]. - In 2025, the new policy has three changes: expanding the subsidy scope to include natural gas heavy - duty trucks, allowing new - purchase subsidies for trucks with less than 1 - year pre - retirement, and adding "National IV" trucks to the retirement scope [45][46]. - The sales volume of natural gas heavy - duty trucks has been increasing, and the current large price difference between diesel and natural gas, combined with the 2025 policy, is expected to drive further growth [47]. 4. Conclusion - The trade - in subsidy policies in 2009 and 2015 effectively boosted the sales of heavy - duty trucks in the following years [60][61]. - The current subsidy policy is similar to that in 2015. It is expected to drive the recovery of heavy - duty truck sales in 2025 and 2026, but the growth rate will be much lower due to real estate demand constraints [62]. - The new policy in 2025 is expected to bring an additional 100,000 units of heavy - duty truck sales, with an increase of about 10%, and the upper limit of the corresponding rubber demand pull may reach about 2% [3][51][62].

Core Viewpoint - The smart automotive sector is experiencing accelerated penetration of intelligent technology, which is expected to drive differentiation within the industry, particularly in the automotive parts sector [1]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The Special Vehicle Industry Innovation Development Conference was held in Shiyan, Hubei from May 15 to 17, focusing on the implementation of new energy and intelligent technology, emphasizing industry chain collaboration and global layout [1]. - Data indicates that by 2024, the penetration rate of new energy special vehicles in China is projected to reach 29.8% [1]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to see a divergence in revenue and profit growth from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with the intelligent driving industry chain performing notably well [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - Benefiting from the increase in intelligent driving penetration, sectors such as intelligent chassis, domain control, and sensors are expected to see performance growth surpassing the industry average [1]. - The penetration rate of L2.5 and above intelligent driving models is anticipated to enter a rapid growth phase by 2025 [1]. - The passenger vehicle market is accelerating its phase-out, with leading domestic automakers and new force car companies expected to expand their market share [1]. Group 3: Commercial Vehicle Outlook - In the commercial vehicle segment, new energy buses are maintaining high demand supported by subsidy policies, while the heavy truck market shows resilience in both domestic and international demand [1]. - Gas and new energy heavy trucks are likely to continue benefiting from market conditions [1]. Group 4: ETF and Index Information - The Smart Automotive ETF (159889) rose by 1.63%, tracking the CS Smart Automotive Index (930721), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and includes listed companies involved in intelligent driving and vehicle networking [1].

Core Insights - The "Heavy Truck First Influence Index" in April 2025 showed a total score of 2238 points, reflecting a 9% month-on-month increase and a 7.2% year-on-year increase [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - April marked a synchronized recovery in market sales, with the "Heavy Truck First Influence Index" reflecting this trend [3]. - The total sales of heavy trucks in April reached 4.3 million units, with significant contributions from major brands [29]. Group 2: Company Highlights - FAW Jiefang achieved the highest score in brand communication for April, significantly widening the gap with competitors [6]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) launched the new TS7 dump truck, showcasing advanced technology and performance [8]. - Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle maintained steady growth, with significant partnerships and product launches, including LNG trucks [12]. - Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor's sales were bolstered by large orders, including a contract for 600 LNG trucks [18]. - XCMG showcased its latest electric trucks at the Bauma 2025 exhibition, emphasizing zero emissions and low energy consumption [21]. - Remote Commercial Vehicles highlighted its hydrogen-electric truck at the Shanghai Auto Show, focusing on innovative fuel solutions [23]. Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - FAW Jiefang signed a strategic cooperation agreement for 10,000 new energy vehicles, indicating strong market positioning in the new energy sector [9]. - CNHTC and Toyota signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance collaboration in hydrogen fuel commercial vehicles [8]. - Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle partnered with Huawei to develop supercharging technology, aiming to advance the electric vehicle infrastructure [12]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The heavy truck market is increasingly focusing on new energy solutions, with significant sales growth in electric and LNG trucks [25]. - The overall brand communication activities in April were vibrant, with a strong emphasis on new energy as a key area of development [25].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The automotive industry is experiencing a seasonal decline post-May Day, with increased consumer hesitation leading to longer purchase decision cycles. The competition from models like Zeekr 007GT against Tesla Model 3 and Galaxy models against BYD is notable, but overall performance aligns with expectations [1][4] Key Insights on Passenger Vehicle Market - The passenger vehicle market's inventory remains stable with moderate price competition. BYD's smart driving models are seeing increased discounts to reduce inventory, while Li Auto's new models are enhancing cost-performance ratios through upgrades and promotions [1][5] - The annual retail forecast for passenger vehicles has been revised down to 23.69 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The forecast for new energy vehicle retail has been reduced by 400,000 units, with a penetration rate decrease of 1% [1][12] Company-Specific Highlights BYD - BYD's non-self-driving models are seeing significant inventory reductions, with stock levels in central and southern China expected to last 10 to 20 days. The share of self-driving models has increased from 40-50% to 75-80% [6] Li Auto - Li Auto has launched new models with configuration upgrades while maintaining prices, resulting in strong order performance. The L series is particularly well-received, with price and benefits being key attractions [7] Tesla - Tesla's recent delivery data has been lower than expected, primarily due to competition from Zeekr 007GT and Avita 06, which are diverting customer attention and increasing consumer hesitation [9] AITO (问界) - AITO's M8 model has seen strong order volumes since its launch in mid-April, although it is impacting the M9 model due to similarities in size and pricing [10] Zeekr - Zeekr's 007JT model is performing as expected, but its impact on the 001 model has exceeded expectations. Discounts provided in Hangzhou may lead to internal competition [11] Heavy-Duty Truck Market Insights - The heavy-duty truck market is showing signs of growth following the implementation of National IV emission standards in most provinces. Electric heavy-duty trucks are performing well, while natural gas trucks are declining due to narrowing gas prices [3][17] - The forecast for May heavy-duty truck sales is set at 60,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12%. The annual domestic sales forecast is 700,000 units, with a projected year-on-year growth of 16% [3][20] Additional Considerations - The overall sentiment in the heavy-duty truck market is optimistic, with expectations of increased sales following policy implementations. However, there is a noted time lag between order placements and actual sales [16] - The pricing trends for heavy-duty trucks indicate a general increase in electric vehicle prices by 10,000 to 20,000 yuan since the beginning of the year, with stable prices observed in most stores [18] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and expectations of the automotive and heavy-duty truck industries.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the heavy truck (重卡) industry in China, focusing on sales performance, market dynamics, and policy impacts for 2025 [1][3][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: In the first four months of 2025, domestic heavy truck wholesale sales reached 353,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 1%. However, terminal insurance data showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11%, indicating structural differences in market demand. The expected total domestic terminal demand for the year is around 600,000 to 650,000 units without large-scale policy stimulus [1][3]. - **Export Stability**: Heavy truck exports remained stable, with March exports at 28,000 units and April expected to maintain over 20,000 units. The annual export volume is projected to exceed 300,000 units, making exports a crucial support for heavy truck sales [1][4]. - **Segment Performance**: In April, semi-trailer sales decreased by 6% year-on-year, while cargo truck sales increased by 37%. The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached a historical high of 23%, although growth has slowed. The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks was 25%, influenced by seasonal factors [1][5][6]. - **Market Concentration**: The CR5 (concentration ratio of the top five companies) in the heavy truck industry remains around 84%, indicating slight market dispersion due to the rising market share of new energy companies. In the natural gas heavy truck market, the top five companies hold over 95% of the market share [1][7]. - **Policy Impact**: The National IV replacement policy is seen as a potential growth driver, with several provinces already issuing specific guidelines. This policy is expected to significantly boost terminal demand and positively impact industry sentiment, with an estimated additional sales increase of 50,000 to 100,000 units in 2025 [1][8][9]. - **Profit Elasticity**: The impact of the replacement policy on profits is notable. A sales increase of 100,000 units could lead to a 20% profit increase, while a 50,000 unit increase could result in a 10% profit uplift. The average selling price of domestic heavy trucks is approximately 300,000 yuan, with a gross margin of about 4% [1][9][10]. Additional Important Content - **Logistics Sector Influence**: The logistics industry is experiencing stable freight rates and declining fuel costs, leading to good profit margins for logistics companies. This situation is expected to increase replacement demand for heavy trucks, benefiting major companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, and Weichai Power [2][12][13]. - **Risks**: Potential risks to the heavy truck industry include slower-than-expected economic growth and significant increases in raw material prices, which could negatively impact the industry's performance [2][14].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global military industry continues to grow, with the top 100 military companies achieving sales of $632 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, driven by geopolitical factors such as the Ukraine crisis and Middle East instability [1][2][3] - China's military industry is becoming increasingly important due to technological breakthroughs and improved market adaptability, with significant sales at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, totaling 1,195 aircraft valued at 285.6 billion RMB [1][3][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The demand for advanced military equipment is rising globally, influenced by increased defense budgets and the practical application of unmanned equipment in conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war [2][3] - The silicon material supply-side reform is expected to raise silicon prices, with leading companies planning to stockpile approximately 1 million tons of silicon material, which could significantly improve cash flow despite an increase in financial costs of about 2 billion RMB [1][6] - Cloud service providers are expected to have lower-than-expected capital expenditures in Q2 2025 due to rising costs and quarterly adjustments, but computing power demand is projected to grow rapidly [1][8] Emerging Trends - Liquid cooling technology is transitioning towards magnetic or gas suspension centrifugal machines to meet higher PUE requirements in data centers, with 2025 being a pivotal year for liquid cooling technology in both the US and China [1][9] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing positive momentum, driven by rumors surrounding H Company and strong production expectations from Tesla, which plans to produce 5,000 units in 2025 [2][11][15] Investment Opportunities - The heavy truck industry is benefiting from vehicle replacement policies, with domestic sales in April increasing by 6% year-on-year and new energy heavy truck penetration reaching a record high of 23% [2][17][19] - The AIDC sector is highlighted as a potential investment area, particularly in the liquid cooling compressor segment, which may see concentrated bidding in Q3 [1][8] - Key companies to watch in the silicon material sector include Tongwei and others, with strategic investments recommended post-531 demand drop [1][6] Risks and Considerations - The heavy truck sector faces risks from economic underperformance and rising raw material prices, despite a positive outlook due to upcoming policy changes [2][19] - The humanoid robot sector's overall layout remains unclear, presenting potential risks related to expectations and market performance [2][11] Conclusion - The military, silicon material, cloud computing, and humanoid robot industries present various investment opportunities and risks, driven by geopolitical dynamics, technological advancements, and policy changes. Investors should remain vigilant about market conditions and company performance in these sectors.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The overall PE of A-shares is 19.0 times, positioned at the historical 51st percentile - The real estate, steel, power equipment (photovoltaic equipment), national defense, aviation, chemical pharmaceuticals, and IT services sectors have PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and medical services sectors have both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [1][2][3] Valuation Comparison - A-shares overall PE is 19.0 times, with the Shanghai 50 Index at 10.9 times, the CSI 500 Index at 28.8 times, and the ChiNext Index at 30.7 times, indicating varying levels of valuation across different indices [1][5] - The CSI 1000 Index has a PE of 39.3 times, while the National Index 2000 has a PE of 50.9 times, reflecting higher valuations in smaller cap indices [1][5] - The ChiNext Index's PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.4 times, at the historical 5th percentile, indicating a significant premium [1][5] Industry Tracking New Energy - Photovoltaic sector shows a decline in upstream polysilicon prices by 2.6% and a 0.9% drop in spot prices, with terminal demand decreasing and high inventory levels persisting [2][3] - Battery materials like cobalt and nickel have mixed price movements, with lithium carbonate prices down by 6.0% [2][3] Financial Sector - The commercial bank non-performing loan rate increased by 1 basis point to 1.51%, while the net interest margin decreased by 9 basis points to 1.43% [2][3] Real Estate Chain - Steel prices increased by 1.4% for rebar, while cement prices fell by 1.0% due to reduced demand from real estate investments [2][3] Consumer Sector - Pork prices decreased by 1.4%, while wholesale pork prices increased by 1.6%, indicating a mixed trend in the meat market [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Heavy truck sales increased by 6.5% year-on-year, benefiting from the application of new energy [2][3] Technology TMT - Domestic smartphone shipments grew by 3.3% year-on-year in March 2025, showing signs of recovery in consumer electronics [2][3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil increased by 2.3% to $65.33 per barrel, reflecting improved market sentiment due to easing trade tensions [2][3]